Mathematical Biosciences最新文献_第5页

Exploring the role of osteoblast-lineage cells in the evolutionary dynamics of acute myeloid leukemia through a stochastic differential equation model 通过随机微分方程模型探索成骨细胞谱系细胞在急性髓系白血病进化动力学中的作用

IF 1.8 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109572

Shizhao Ma , Xiulan Lai

{"title":"Exploring the role of osteoblast-lineage cells in the evolutionary dynamics of acute myeloid leukemia through a stochastic differential equation model","authors":"Shizhao Ma , Xiulan Lai","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109572","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109572","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is characterized by the uncontrolled proliferation of abnormal myeloid cells in the bone marrow and peripheral blood. In this study, we develop a stochastic differential equation model to capture the dynamic interactions among hematopoietic, osteoblastic, and leukemic cell populations within the bone marrow microenvironment. We calibrate model parameters using clinical data via an optimal control framework. Our study provides a mathematical framework to investigate how leukemic cells may remodel the heterogeneous bone marrow niche through dynamic interactions with osteoblastic lineages. This remodeling process disrupts both the quantity and functional capacity of hematopoietic populations, thereby offering insights into how leukemic-niche interactions may contribute to AML treatment failure. Furthermore, we evaluate the efficacy of combination therapies (traditional chemotherapy with targeted therapy) and compare their therapeutic outcomes. These findings offer a theoretical foundation for optimizing clinical strategies and advancing personalized treatment approaches for AML.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"391 ","pages":"Article 109572"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145625143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Particle-based simulation of non-elementary bimolecular kinetics 基于粒子的非基本双分子动力学模拟

IF 1.8 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109582

Taylor Kearney , Mark B. Flegg

{"title":"Particle-based simulation of non-elementary bimolecular kinetics","authors":"Taylor Kearney , Mark B. Flegg","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109582","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109582","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Particle-based simulations are an essential tool for the study of biochemical systems for scales between molecular/Brownian dynamics and the reaction-diffusion master equation. These simulations utilise proximity-based reaction conditions and are typically limited to elementary (mass-action) kinetics. We present a novel framework for directly simulating non-elementary bimolecular kinetics in a particle-based framework. By mimicking the behaviour of a third implicit reactant, we adapt non-elementary reaction conditions, previously restricted to trimolecular chemical interactions, to biomolecular reactions for the first time. We implement our approach in an event-driven simulation, which we validate by reproducing Michaelis-Menten kinetics. We then demonstrate its utility by simulating the classical Goldbeter model of circadian oscillations completely at the level of individual molecules. This model features multiple non-elementary reactions and requires the incorporation of several existing simulation techniques. Our method accurately reproduces the target non-elementary kinetics, without simulating the implied underlying fast elementary reactions, thereby significantly reducing the computational cost. This work expands the class of reaction networks accessible to particle-based simulations and provides a practical alternative to explicitly simulating all elementary steps in systems where quasi-steady-state approximations are applicable.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"391 ","pages":"Article 109582"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145625144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do “soft” interventions matter more than vaccination? Rabies as an example “软”干预比疫苗接种更重要吗？狂犬病就是一个例子。

IF 1.8 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109567

Nyuk Sian Chong , Thanisha Kaliapan , Can Chen , Kok Choon Cheah , Stacey R. Smith

引用次数: 0

A phenotype-structured mathematical model for the influence of hypoxia on oncolytic virotherapy 缺氧对溶瘤病毒治疗影响的表型结构数学模型。

IF 1.8 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109570

David Morselli , Giulia Chiari , Federico Frascoli , Marcello Edoardo Delitala

{"title":"A phenotype-structured mathematical model for the influence of hypoxia on oncolytic virotherapy","authors":"David Morselli , Giulia Chiari , Federico Frascoli , Marcello Edoardo Delitala","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109570","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109570","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The effectiveness of oncolytic virotherapy is significantly affected by several elements of the tumour microenvironment, which reduce the ability of the virus to infect cancer cells. In this work, we focus on the influence of hypoxia on this therapy and develop a novel continuous mathematical model that considers both the spatial and epigenetic heterogeneity of the tumour. We investigate how oxygen gradients within tumours affect the spatial distribution and replication of both the tumour and oncolytic viruses, focusing on regions of severe hypoxia versus normoxic areas. Additionally, we analyse the evolutionary dynamics of tumour cells under hypoxic conditions and their influence on susceptibility to viral infection. Our findings show that the reduced metabolic activity of hypoxic cells may significantly impact the virotherapy effectiveness; the knowledge of the tumour’s oxygenation could, therefore, suggest the most suitable type of virus to optimise the outcome. The combination of numerical simulations and theoretical results for the model equilibrium values allows us to elucidate the complex interplay between viruses, tumour evolution and oxygen dynamics, ultimately contributing to developing more effective and personalised cancer treatments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"391 ","pages":"Article 109570"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145575201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Integrating machine learning into the in silico clinical trial pipeline 将机器学习集成到计算机临床试验管道中。

IF 1.8 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109583

Rebecca A. Bekker , Renee Brady-Nicholls , Lisette de Pillis , Jana L. Gevertz , Harsh Vardhan Jain

{"title":"Integrating machine learning into the in silico clinical trial pipeline","authors":"Rebecca A. Bekker , Renee Brady-Nicholls , Lisette de Pillis , Jana L. Gevertz , Harsh Vardhan Jain","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109583","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109583","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>In silico</em> clinical trials offer a powerful tool for overcoming several limitations of traditional clinical trials. Conventional trials are time- and resource-intensive, typically designed to assess average effects across a population while being restricted to studying the impact of a fixed treatment protocol. In contrast, <em>in silico</em> trials are cost-effective, flexible in their design, and able to explore heterogeneity in treatment response. These trials generally rely on expert-developed and data-calibrated mechanistic mathematical models and the identification of model parameterizations that satisfy biological or clinical constraints. With the growing availability of multi-scale and high-resolution clinical data, it is the opportune time to thoughtfully consider how machine learning (ML) methods can enhance the feasibility, interpretability, and reliability of these <em>in silico</em> trials. In this perspective piece, we explore both the opportunities and the challenges of introducing ML tools at various stages of this process, from biomarker identification to interpreting the results of the trial. We argue that in the hands of an expert modeler, the thoughtful application of ML tools can result in more accurate and informative <em>in silico</em> clinical trials that may potentially accelerate drug development and find the right drug/protocol for the right patient.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"391 ","pages":"Article 109583"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145644167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of acid-base changes on the stochastic dynamics of phytoplankton growth under global warming 全球变暖条件下酸碱变化对浮游植物生长随机动力学的影响。

IF 1.8 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109565

Tiancai Liao, Honghui Yin

{"title":"The impact of acid-base changes on the stochastic dynamics of phytoplankton growth under global warming","authors":"Tiancai Liao, Honghui Yin","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109565","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109565","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper deals with a stochastic nutrient-phytoplankton (NP) model with the impacts of <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>H</mi></mrow></math></span> and global warming, where the stochastic environmental disturbance is characterized by the logarithmic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (LOU) process. In the deterministic NP model, we investigate the existence of possible equilibria and analyze their local and global stability. Additionally, by utilizing sensitivity analysis technique, it is shown that phytoplankton density and nutrient concentration are highly sensitive to global warming and <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>H</mi></mrow></math></span>. In the stochastic NP model, we derive the sufficient conditions of exponential extinction and persistence in the mean of phytoplankton, prove the existence of a stationary distribution, and give the specific expression of the probability density under some appropriate conditions. Ecologically, via numerical simulations, we find that the variation in global warming and <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>H</mi></mrow></math></span> can generate new influence mechanisms for the interactions between nutrient and phytoplankton within the deterministic and stochastic environments. One of the most interesting results is that an appropriate increase or decrease in <span><math><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>H</mi></mrow></math></span> value is beneficial for inhibiting the occurrence of phytoplankton blooms. This study may provide some new ideas for understanding the dynamic mechanisms of phytoplankton growth in natural aquatic environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"390 ","pages":"Article 109565"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145426805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Natural population dynamics of Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri, and its control based on pheromone trapping 柑桔木虱自然种群动态及信息素诱捕防治研究。

IF 1.8 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109540

Daiver Cardona-Salgado , Yves Dumont , Olga Vasilieva

{"title":"Natural population dynamics of Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri, and its control based on pheromone trapping","authors":"Daiver Cardona-Salgado , Yves Dumont , Olga Vasilieva","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109540","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109540","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Asian citrus psyllid (<em>Diaphorina citri</em>) is a major agricultural pest and the principal vector of Huanglongbing (HLB), a devastating citrus disease. Thus, its control is of utmost importance: since <em>D. citri</em> mates multiple times, the use of mating disruption has the potential to reduce or eliminate populations. In this work, we develop a sex-structured, piecewise smooth dynamical system modeling the natural population dynamics of <em>D. citri</em>, focusing on adult stages and mating behavior. The main goal of this manuscript is to show that the population of <em>D. citri</em>, when near a locally asymptotically stable equilibrium, can be effectively suppressed using pheromone traps via two control strategies, mating disruption and male-targeted removal. For this reason, we focus on local stability analysis and the design of practical control interventions that are biologically meaningful and implementable. By applying a feed-forward control approach, which only requires assessing the initial size of the psyllid population, we identify the threshold as a function of the two control parameters above which a local insect elimination is reachable. We also show that a feedback control with periodic assessments of the wild population sizes is applicable, and then deduce that a mixed-type control regime, combining both studied control approaches, yields the best results. We present several simulations to illustrate our theoretical findings and to estimate the minimal amount of pheromones and time needed to reach the local elimination of existing psyllids. Finally, we discuss possible implementations of our results as a part of Integrated Pest Management programs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"390 ","pages":"Article 109540"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145234744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rich dynamics in a delayed water borne pathogen model with overexposure 过度暴露延迟水传播病原体模型的丰富动力学。

IF 1.8 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109564

Jinhu Xu , Yanni Xiao , Xiaodan Sun

{"title":"Rich dynamics in a delayed water borne pathogen model with overexposure","authors":"Jinhu Xu , Yanni Xiao , Xiaodan Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we formulate a delayed water borne pathogen model incorporating overexposure, investigate threshold dynamics, and analyze the impact of overexposure and delay on disease transmission. Threshold dynamics are characterized by the basic reproduction number <span><math><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></math></span>. The model exhibits backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium for <span><math><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></math></span> values below 1, indicating that the disease may persist even when <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub><mo><</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span>. Furthermore, we theoretically and numerically examined the existence of Hopf bifurcation in absence of time delay and the results reveal that the overexposure induces rich dynamics, including stability switches, endemic bubble and multiple limits cycles. For the delayed model, by regarding time delay as the bifurcation parameter, the local and global Hopf bifurcation have been carried out to show influence of time delay on model dynamics. Numerical simulations confirm that delay induces stability switches and coexistence of multiple periodic solutions. Our findings indicate that overexposure and time delay are responsible for the model’s complex dynamics, complicating disease control efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"390 ","pages":"Article 109564"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145423679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling cholera transmission dynamics with antibiotic resistance and mutation: A case study in Zimbabwe 模拟霍乱传播动力学与抗生素耐药性和突变：在津巴布韦的一个案例研究

IF 1.8 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109545

Wei Wang , Yuan Lou , Xiunan Wang

{"title":"Modeling cholera transmission dynamics with antibiotic resistance and mutation: A case study in Zimbabwe","authors":"Wei Wang , Yuan Lou , Xiunan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109545","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109545","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cholera remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although antibiotic use can reduce transmission, misuse, overuse, or incomplete treatment can foster the emergence of antibiotic resistance. Selective pressure plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of resistance in <span><math><mrow><mi>V</mi><mi>i</mi><mi>b</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>i</mi><mi>o</mi><mspace></mspace><mi>c</mi><mi>h</mi><mi>o</mi><mi>l</mi><mi>e</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>e</mi></mrow></math></span>, particularly by increasing the mutation rate that transforms antibiotic-sensitive strains into resistant ones. In this study, we develop a novel mathematical model to investigate the impact of antibiotic resistance on cholera transmission dynamics. We establish the existence and stability of equilibria and fit the model to cholera outbreak data from Zimbabwe. Our results reveal a critical interplay between mutation rates and strain fitness: when resistant strains have low reproductive fitness, increased mutation rates alone fail to establish their dominance; however, when resistance carries a fitness advantage, higher mutation rates trigger a regime shift to resistant strain dominance—a newly identified phenomenon with implications for resistance management. We further demonstrate that incomplete treatment (lower recovery rates) exacerbates resistance by prolonging antibiotic exposure. Crucially, our findings underscore that judicious antibiotic use can simultaneously curb resistance emergence and outbreak spread in Zimbabwe, offering actionable insights for public health strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"390 ","pages":"Article 109545"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145223626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Structural and practical identifiability of an immuno-hand foot and mouth disease model integrating immune response within a host 整合宿主免疫反应的免疫手足口病模型的结构和实际可识别性。

IF 1.8 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109544

Junyuan Yang , Ziyi Wu , Maia Martcheva

{"title":"Structural and practical identifiability of an immuno-hand foot and mouth disease model integrating immune response within a host","authors":"Junyuan Yang , Ziyi Wu , Maia Martcheva","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109544","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109544","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this work, we extend the nested modeling framework to establish an immuno-epidemiological model for Hand Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD). This model intricately links host-to-host transmission, virus release, and recovery rates to within-host immune system dynamics. We introduce an ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based within-host model and an partial differential equation (PDE)-based between-host model. Utilizing sensitivity-based locally structural identifiability methods, including principal component analysis (PCA) and eigenvalue analysis, we systematically prioritize parameters from least to most identifiable. Furthermore, we perform globally structural identifiability analysis using differential algebra methods, demonstrating global identifiability of within-host parameters under specific conditions. Leveraging these results, we accurately estimate model parameters using experimental data. Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) reveal practical unidentifiable parameters, indicating that the multi-scale immuno-epidemiological HFMD model is both locally and practically unidentifiable. Finally, sensitivity analysis reveals that within host kinetics considerably influences the temporal dynamics of the HFMD model at the population level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":"390 ","pages":"Article 109544"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145282468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0