Mathematical Biosciences最新文献_第5页

Stratified epidemic model using a latent marked Hawkes process 使用潜在标记霍克斯过程的分层流行病模型。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109260

Stamatina Lamprinakou , Axel Gandy

{"title":"Stratified epidemic model using a latent marked Hawkes process","authors":"Stamatina Lamprinakou , Axel Gandy","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109260","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109260","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We extend the unstructured homogeneously mixing epidemic model introduced by Lamprinakou et al. (2023) to a finite population stratified by age bands. We model the actual unobserved infections using a latent marked Hawkes process and the reported aggregated infections as random quantities driven by the underlying Hawkes process. We apply a Kernel Density Particle Filter (KDPF) to infer the marked counting process, the instantaneous reproduction number for each age group and forecast the epidemic’s trajectory in the near future. Taking into account the individual inhomogeneity in age does not increase significantly the computational cost of the proposed inference algorithm compared to the cost of the proposed algorithm for the homogeneously unstructured epidemic model. We demonstrate that considering the individual heterogeneity in age, we can derive the instantaneous reproduction numbers per age group that provide a real-time measurement of interventions and behavioural changes of the associated groups. We illustrate the performance of the proposed inference algorithm on synthetic data sets and COVID-19-reported cases in various local authorities in the UK, and benchmark our model to the unstructured homogeneously mixing epidemic model. Our paper is a “demonstration” of a methodology that might be applied to factors other than age for stratification.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556424001202/pdfft?md5=401970542a2e47b018c13a6afb47611f&pid=1-s2.0-S0025556424001202-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141736206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Social vs. individual age-dependent costs of imperfect vaccination 不完善疫苗接种的社会成本与个人年龄成本。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109259

Fabio A.C.C. Chalub, Paulo Doutor, Paula Patrício, Maria do Céu Soares

{"title":"Social vs. individual age-dependent costs of imperfect vaccination","authors":"Fabio A.C.C. Chalub, Paulo Doutor, Paula Patrício, Maria do Céu Soares","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109259","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109259","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In diseases with long-term immunity, vaccination is known to increase the average age at infection as a result of the decrease in the pathogen circulation. This implies that a vaccination campaign can have negative effects when a disease is more costly (financial or health-related costs) for higher ages. This work considers an age-structured population transmission model with imperfect vaccination. We aim to compare the social and individual costs of vaccination, assuming that disease costs are age-dependent, while the disease’s dynamic is age-independent. A model for pathogen deterministic dynamics in a population consisting of juveniles and adults, assumed to be rational agents, is introduced. The parameter region for which vaccination has a positive social impact is fully characterized and the Nash equilibrium of the vaccination game is obtained. Finally, collective strategies designed to promote voluntary vaccination, without compromising social welfare, are discussed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556424001196/pdfft?md5=1481c1a756cdeb542b5c4c5464475a67&pid=1-s2.0-S0025556424001196-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141636315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Infection thresholds for two interacting pathogens in a wild animal population 野生动物种群中两种相互影响的病原体的感染阈值。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109258

M.G. Roberts

引用次数: 0

Mathematical analysis of simple behavioral epidemic models 简单行为流行病模型的数学分析。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109250

Leah LeJeune , Navid Ghaffarzadegan , Lauren M. Childs , Omar Saucedo

{"title":"Mathematical analysis of simple behavioral epidemic models","authors":"Leah LeJeune , Navid Ghaffarzadegan , Lauren M. Childs , Omar Saucedo","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109250","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109250","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>COVID-19 highlighted the importance of considering human behavior change when modeling disease dynamics. This led to developing various models that incorporate human behavior. Our objective is to contribute to an in-depth, mathematical examination of such models. Here, we consider a simple deterministic compartmental model with endogenous incorporation of human behavior (i.e., behavioral feedback) through transmission in a classic Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) structure. Despite its simplicity, the SEIR structure with behavior (SEIRb) was shown to perform well in forecasting, especially compared to more complicated models. We contrast this model with an SEIR model that excludes endogenous incorporation of behavior. Both models assume permanent immunity to COVID-19, so we also consider a modification of the models which include waning immunity (SEIRS and SEIRSb). We perform equilibria, sensitivity, and identifiability analyses on all models and examine the fidelity of the models to replicate COVID-19 data across the United States. Endogenous incorporation of behavior significantly improves a model’s ability to produce realistic outbreaks. While the two endogenous models are similar with respect to identifiability and sensitivity, the SEIRSb model, with the more accurate assumption of the waning immunity, strengthens the initial SEIRb model by allowing for the existence of an endemic equilibrium, a realistic feature of COVID-19 dynamics. When fitting the model to data, we further consider the addition of simple seasonality affecting disease transmission to highlight the explanatory power of the models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141622053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Efficient and scalable prediction of stochastic reaction–diffusion processes using graph neural networks 利用图神经网络高效、可扩展地预测随机反应-扩散过程。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109248

{"title":"Efficient and scalable prediction of stochastic reaction–diffusion processes using graph neural networks","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109248","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109248","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The dynamics of locally interacting particles that are distributed in space give rise to a multitude of complex behaviours. However the simulation of reaction–diffusion processes which model such systems is highly computationally expensive, the cost increasing rapidly with the size of space. Here, we devise a graph neural network based approach that uses cheap Monte Carlo simulations of reaction–diffusion processes in a small space to cast predictions of the dynamics of the same processes in a much larger and complex space, including spaces modelled by networks with heterogeneous topology. By applying the method to two biological examples, we show that it leads to accurate results in a small fraction of the computation time of standard stochastic simulation methods. The scalability and accuracy of the method suggest it is a promising approach for studying reaction–diffusion processes in complex spatial domains such as those modelling biochemical reactions, population evolution and epidemic spreading.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556424001081/pdfft?md5=945b85127a938ae609979d1a052b313a&pid=1-s2.0-S0025556424001081-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141581940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analyzing the use of non-pharmaceutical personal protective measures through self-interest and social optimum for the control of an emerging disease 分析通过自我利益和社会最优化使用非药物个人防护措施来控制一种新出现的疾病。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109246

Aniruddha Deka , Ceyhun Eksin , Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah

{"title":"Analyzing the use of non-pharmaceutical personal protective measures through self-interest and social optimum for the control of an emerging disease","authors":"Aniruddha Deka , Ceyhun Eksin , Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109246","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109246","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Non-pharmaceutical personal protective (NPP) measures such as face masks use, and hand and respiratory hygiene can be effective measures for mitigating the spread of aerosol/airborne diseases, such as COVID-19, in the absence of vaccination or treatment. However, the usage of such measures is constrained by their inherent perceived cost and effectiveness for reducing transmission risk. To understand the complex interaction of disease dynamics and individuals decision whether to adopt NPP or not, we incorporate evolutionary game theory into an epidemic model such as COVID-19. To compare how self-interested NPP use differs from social optimum, we also investigated optional control from a central planner’s perspective. We use Pontryagin’s maximum principle to identify the population-level NPP uptake that minimizes disease incidence by incurring the minimum costs. The evolutionary behavior model shows that NPP uptake increases at lower perceived costs of NPP, higher transmission risk, shorter duration of NPP use, higher effectiveness of NPP, and shorter duration of disease-induced immunity. Though social optimum NPP usage is generally more effective in reducing disease incidence than self-interested usage, our analysis identifies conditions under which both strategies get closer. Our model provides new insights for public health in mitigating a disease outbreak through NPP.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141545722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling and analysis of a human papilloma virus transmission model with impact of media 受媒体影响的人类乳头瘤病毒传播模型的建模与分析。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109247

{"title":"Modeling and analysis of a human papilloma virus transmission model with impact of media","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109247","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109247","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The human papillomavirus (HPV) is threatening human health as it spreads globally in varying degrees. On the other hand, the speed and scope of information transmission continues to increase, as well as the significant increase in the number of HPV-related news reports, it has never been more important to explore the role of media news coverage in the spread and control of the virus. Using a decreasing factor that captures the impact of media on the actions of people, this paper develops a model that characterizes the dynamics of HPV transmission with media impact, vaccination and recovery. We obtain global stability of equilibrium points employing geometric method, and further yield effective methods to contain the HPV pandemic by sensitivity analysis. With the center manifold theory, we show that there is a forward bifurcation when <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>R</mi><mn>0</mn></msub><mo>=</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span>. Our study suggested that, besides controlling contact between infected and susceptible populations and improving effective vaccine coverage, a better intervention would be to strengthen media coverage. In addition, we demonstrated that contact rate and the effect of media coverage result in multiple epidemics of infection when certain conditions are met, implying that interventions need to be tailored to specific situations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141539104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A soluble model for synchronized rhythmic activity in ant colonies 蚁群同步节律活动的可溶性模型

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109245

Pedro M.M. da Silveira, José F. Fontanari

引用次数: 0

Spatial heterogeneity analysis for the transmission of syphilis disease in China via a data-validated reaction–diffusion model 通过数据验证的反应-扩散模型分析中国梅毒疾病传播的空间异质性。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109243

Peng Wu , Xiunan Wang , Hao Wang

{"title":"Spatial heterogeneity analysis for the transmission of syphilis disease in China via a data-validated reaction–diffusion model","authors":"Peng Wu , Xiunan Wang , Hao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109243","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109243","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Based on the distinctive spatial diffusion characteristics observed in syphilis transmission patterns, this paper introduces a novel reaction–diffusion model for syphilis disease dynamics, incorporating general incidence functions within a heterogeneous environment. We derive the basic reproduction number essential for threshold dynamics and investigate the uniform persistence of the model. We validate the model and estimate its parameters by employing the multi-objective Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, using real syphilis data from the years 2004 to 2018 in China. Furthermore, we explore the impact of spatial heterogeneity and intervention measures on syphilis transmission. Our findings reveal several key insights: (1) In addition to the original high-incidence areas of syphilis, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Hunan and Northeast China have also emerged as high-incidence regions for syphilis in China. (2) The latent syphilis cases represent the highest proportion of newly reported cases, highlighting the critical importance of considering their role in transmission dynamics to avoid underestimation of syphilis outbreaks. (3) Neglecting spatial heterogeneity results in an underestimation of disease prevalence and the number of syphilis-infected individuals, undermining effective disease prevention and control strategies. (4) The initial conditions have minimal impact on the long-term spatial distribution of syphilis-infected individuals in scenarios of varying diffusion rates. This study underscores the significance of spatial dynamics and intervention measures in assessing and managing syphilis transmission, which offers insights for public health policymakers.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556424001032/pdfft?md5=dad3ae68a68d500c670b231c1791a8f6&pid=1-s2.0-S0025556424001032-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141536287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multiple endemic equilibria in an environmentally-transmitted disease with three disease stages 具有三个发病阶段的环境传播疾病的多重流行平衡。

IF 1.9 4区数学

Mathematical Biosciences Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109244

{"title":"Multiple endemic equilibria in an environmentally-transmitted disease with three disease stages","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109244","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109244","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We construct, analyze and interpret a mathematical model for an environmental transmitted disease characterized for the existence of three disease stages: acute, severe and asymptomatic. Besides, we consider that severe and asymptomatic cases may present relapse between them. Transmission dynamics driven by the contact rates only occurs when a parameter <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msub><mo>></mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span>, as normally occur in directly-transmitted or vector-transmitted diseases, but it will not adequately correspond to a basic reproductive number as it depends on environmental parameters. In this case, the forward transcritical bifurcation that exists for <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msub><mo><</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span>, becomes a backward bifurcation, producing multiple steady-states, a hysteresis effect and dependence on initial conditions. A threshold parameter for an epidemic outbreak, independent of <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msub></math></span> is only the ratio of the external contamination inflow shedding rate to the environmental clearance rate. <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msub></math></span> describes the strength of the transmission to infectious classes other than the <span><math><mi>I</mi></math></span>-(acute) type infections. The epidemic outbreak conditions and the structure of <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msub></math></span> appearing in this model are both responsible for the existence of endemic states.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51119,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biosciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2024-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141478269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0