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Spatial examination of social and environmental drivers of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) across Kenya. 对肯尼亚各地中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒(MERS-CoV)的社会和环境驱动因素进行空间研究。
IF 2.2 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecohealth Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-024-01684-9
Ted J Lawrence, Geoffrey K Kangogo, Avery Fredman, Sharon L Deem, Eric M Fèvre, Ilona Gluecks, James D Brien, Enbal Shacham
{"title":"Spatial examination of social and environmental drivers of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) across Kenya.","authors":"Ted J Lawrence, Geoffrey K Kangogo, Avery Fredman, Sharon L Deem, Eric M Fèvre, Ilona Gluecks, James D Brien, Enbal Shacham","doi":"10.1007/s10393-024-01684-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10393-024-01684-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate and agricultural land-use change has increased the likelihood of infectious disease emergence and transmissions, but these drivers are often examined separately as combined effects are ignored. Further, seldom are the influence of climate and agricultural land use on emerging infectious diseases examined in a spatially explicit way at regional scales. Our objective in this study was to spatially examine the climate, agriculture, and socio-demographic factors related to agro-pastoralism, and especially the combined effects of these variables that can influence the prevalence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in dromedary camels across northern Kenya. Our research questions focused on: (1) How MERS-CoV in dromedary camels has varied across geographic regions of northern Kenya, and (2) what climate, agriculture, and socio-demographic factors of agro-pastoralism were spatially related to the geographic variation of MERS-CoV cases in dromedary camels. To answer our questions, we analyzed the spatial distribution of historical cases based on serological evidence of MERS-CoV at the county level and applied spatial statistical analysis to examine the spatial relationships of the MERS-CoV cases between 2016 and 2018 to climate, agriculture, and socio-demographic factors of agro-pastoralism. Regional differences in MERS-CoV cases were spatially correlated with both social and environmental factors, and particularly ethno-religious camel practices, which highlight the complexity in the distribution of MERS-CoV in dromedary camels across Kenya.</p>","PeriodicalId":51027,"journal":{"name":"Ecohealth","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141447546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating the Risk Landscape of Hawaiian Monk Seal Exposure to Toxoplasma gondii. 评估夏威夷僧海豹接触弓形虫的风险状况。
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecohealth Pub Date : 2024-06-08 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-024-01678-7
Stacie Robinson, Kim Falinski, Devin Johnson, Elizabeth VanWormer, Karen Shapiro, Angela Amlin, Michelle Barbieri
{"title":"Evaluating the Risk Landscape of Hawaiian Monk Seal Exposure to Toxoplasma gondii.","authors":"Stacie Robinson, Kim Falinski, Devin Johnson, Elizabeth VanWormer, Karen Shapiro, Angela Amlin, Michelle Barbieri","doi":"10.1007/s10393-024-01678-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-024-01678-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Toxoplasmosis is a disease of primary concern for Hawaiian monk seals (Neomonachus schauinslandi), due to its apparently acute lethality and especially heavy impacts on breeding female seals. The disease-causing parasite, Toxoplasma gondii, depends on cats to complete its life cycle; thus, in order to understand how this pathogen infects marine mammals, it is essential to understand aspects of the terrestrial ecosystem and land-to-sea transport. In this study, we constructed a three-tiered model to assess risk of Hawaiian monk seal exposure to T. gondii oocysts: (1) oocyst contamination as a function of cat population characteristics; (2) land-to-sea transport of oocysts as a function of island hydrology, and (3) seal exposure as a function of habitat and space use. We were able to generate risk maps highlighting watersheds contributing the most to oocyst contamination of Hawaiian monk seal habitat. Further, the model showed that free-roaming cats most associated with humans (pets or strays often supplementally fed by people) were able to achieve high densities leading to high levels of oocyst contamination and elevated risk of T. gondii exposure.</p>","PeriodicalId":51027,"journal":{"name":"Ecohealth","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141293918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in Captive Armadillos Associated with Gamma Variant in Argentina. 阿根廷爆发与伽马变种有关的圈养犰狳 SARS-CoV-2 疫情。
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecohealth Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-024-01686-7
Franco Lucero Arteaga, Mercedes Nabaes Jodar, Mariela Mondino, Ana Portu, Mónica Boeris, Ana Jolly, Ana Jar, Silvia Mundo, Eliana Castro, Diego Alvarez, Carolina Torres, Mariana Viegas, Ana Bratanich
{"title":"An Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in Captive Armadillos Associated with Gamma Variant in Argentina.","authors":"Franco Lucero Arteaga, Mercedes Nabaes Jodar, Mariela Mondino, Ana Portu, Mónica Boeris, Ana Jolly, Ana Jar, Silvia Mundo, Eliana Castro, Diego Alvarez, Carolina Torres, Mariana Viegas, Ana Bratanich","doi":"10.1007/s10393-024-01686-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-024-01686-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The current pandemic produced by SARS-CoV-2 and its variants represent an example of the one health concept in which humans and animals are components of the same epidemiologic chain. Animal reservoirs of these viruses are thus the focus of surveillance programs, to monitor their circulation and evolution in potentially new hosts and reservoirs. In this work, we report the detection of the SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant infection in four specimens of Chaetophractus villosus (big hairy armadillo/armadillo peludo) in Argentina. In addition to the finding of a new wildlife species susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, the identification of the Gamma variant three months after its last detection in humans in Argentina is a noteworthy result, which can be due to alternative non-exclusive scenarios, such as unidentified viral reservoirs, unrecognized circulation in humans or species-specific variation in incubation periods.</p>","PeriodicalId":51027,"journal":{"name":"Ecohealth","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141285240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Large-Scale Serological Survey of Influenza A Virus in South Korean Wild Boar (Sus scrofa). 南韩野猪(Sus scrofa)甲型流感病毒大规模血清学调查。
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecohealth Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-024-01685-8
Bud Jung, Minjoo Yeom, Dong-Jun An, Aram Kang, Thi Thu Hang Vu, Woonsung Na, Youngjoo Byun, Daesub Song
{"title":"Large-Scale Serological Survey of Influenza A Virus in South Korean Wild Boar (Sus scrofa).","authors":"Bud Jung, Minjoo Yeom, Dong-Jun An, Aram Kang, Thi Thu Hang Vu, Woonsung Na, Youngjoo Byun, Daesub Song","doi":"10.1007/s10393-024-01685-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-024-01685-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this comprehensive large-scale study, conducted from 2015 to 2019, 7,209 wild boars across South Korea were sampled to assess their exposure to influenza A viruses (IAVs). Of these, 250 (3.5%) were found to be IAV-positive by ELISA, and 150 (2.1%) by the hemagglutination inhibition test. Detected subtypes included 23 cases of pandemic 2009 H1N1, six of human seasonal H3N2, three of classical swine H1N1, 13 of triple-reassortant swine H1N2, seven of triple-reassortant swine H3N2, and seven of swine-origin H3N2 variant. Notably, none of the serum samples tested positive for avian IAV subtypes H3N8, H5N3, H7N7, and H9N2 or canine IAV subtype H3N2. This serologic analysis confirmed the exposure of Korean wild boars to various subtypes of swine and human influenza viruses, with some serum samples cross-reacting between swine and human strains, indicating potential infections with multiple IAVs. The results highlight the potential of wild boar as a novel mixing vessel, facilitating the adaptation of IAVs and their spillover to other hosts, including humans. In light of these findings, we recommend regular and frequent surveillance of circulating influenza viruses in the wild boar population as a proactive measure to prevent potential human influenza pandemics and wild boar influenza epizootics.</p>","PeriodicalId":51027,"journal":{"name":"Ecohealth","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141263249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pastoralism and Resulting Challenges for National Parks in Afar, Ethiopia. 埃塞俄比亚阿法尔地区的畜牧业及其给国家公园带来的挑战。
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecohealth Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-024-01687-6
Samson Abebe, Hamere Melaku, Ashenafi GebreGiorgis Kidanu, Rea Tschopp
{"title":"Pastoralism and Resulting Challenges for National Parks in Afar, Ethiopia.","authors":"Samson Abebe, Hamere Melaku, Ashenafi GebreGiorgis Kidanu, Rea Tschopp","doi":"10.1007/s10393-024-01687-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-024-01687-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Pastoralists and national parks are key stakeholders in the management and conservation of natural and protected habitats. In Ethiopia, Afar pastoralists migrate seasonally with their livestock in search for grazing and water areas. Livestock are also a source of infectious diseases that can spread into wildlife populations when pastoralists encroach into unfenced national parks. The interactions between pastoralists and national parks, as well as the subsequent impacts, remain insufficiently understood in Afar. Two structured questionnaire surveys were conducted in 2021, including 300 pastoralist households in seven woredas of Afar, and 58 staff from three national parks (Awash, Alidegi and Yangudi Rassa). They captured pastoralist movements and livestock diseases as well as the perception of national park staff regarding challenges resulting from pastoral encroachment into parks. Among the pastoralists, 74.7% migrated with their livestock for a mean 3.5 months per year, during which time, 90% of respondents reported contact with other livestock herds, and over 80% with wildlife. A third (34.2%) reported disease outbreaks in their village prior to migration. Pastoralists traveled long distances, crossing woreda, regional or national boundaries. All 58-park respondents reported pastoralists with livestock inside their park and their close contact with wildlife. Additionally, 69% reported the presence of domestic dogs. Wildlife displacement, habitat loss and dog attacks on wildlife were perceived as the main threat caused by the presence of pastoralists, whereas diseases were only mentioned by 15.5%. Overall, park staff showed poor disease knowledge. They reported poor disease surveillance and no disease response. Within pastoral contexts, improved collaboration between wildlife and livestock authorities regarding land use, disease awareness and surveillance is needed to balance the needs of both wildlife and pastoralist's livestock development and mitigate threats to wildlife habitats.</p>","PeriodicalId":51027,"journal":{"name":"Ecohealth","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141181319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Local Economic Conditions Affect Aedes albopictus Management 当地经济状况对白纹伊蚊管理的影响
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecohealth Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-024-01682-x
Jacopo Cerri, Chiara Sciandra, Tania Contardo, Sandro Bertolino
{"title":"Local Economic Conditions Affect Aedes albopictus Management","authors":"Jacopo Cerri, Chiara Sciandra, Tania Contardo, Sandro Bertolino","doi":"10.1007/s10393-024-01682-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-024-01682-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Invasive mosquitoes are an emerging public health issue, as many species are competent vectors for pathogens. We assessed how multiple environmental and socio-economic factors affected the engagement of municipalities in Italy (<i>n</i> = 7679) in actions against <i>Aedes albopictus</i>, an invasive mosquito affecting human health and well-being, between 2000 and 2020. We collected information about mosquito control from official documents and municipal websites and modeled the role played by multiple environmental and socioeconomic factors characterizing each municipality through the random forest algorithm. Municipalities are more prone to manage <i>A. albopictus</i> if more urbanized, in lowlands and with long infestation periods. Moreover, these variables are more predictive of management in municipalities with a high median income and thus more economic resources. Only 25.5% of Italian municipalities approved regulations for managing <i>A. albopictus</i>, and very few of them were in Southern Italy, the most deprived area of the country. Our findings indicate that local economic conditions moderate the effect of other drivers of mosquito control and ultimately can lead to better management of <i>A. albopictus</i>. If the management of invasive mosquitoes, or other forms of global change, is subjected to local economic conditions, economic inequalities will jeopardize the success of large-scale policies, also raising issues of environmental and climate justice.</p>","PeriodicalId":51027,"journal":{"name":"Ecohealth","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140799873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Prevalence and Molecular Analysis of Encephalomyocarditis Virus-2 in the Hazel Dormouse. 榛鼠脑心肌炎病毒-2的流行与分子分析
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecohealth Pub Date : 2024-04-23 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-024-01680-z
Louise Gibson, T. Shadbolt, Pranab Paul, Georgina Gerard, Ethan Wrigglesworth, A. Sainsbury, Helen C. F. Donald, Jenny E. Jaffe, Inez Januszczak, Liam D Fitzpatrick, Caela Burrell, Hannah Davies, A. Dastjerdi, Simon Spiro
{"title":"Prevalence and Molecular Analysis of Encephalomyocarditis Virus-2 in the Hazel Dormouse.","authors":"Louise Gibson, T. Shadbolt, Pranab Paul, Georgina Gerard, Ethan Wrigglesworth, A. Sainsbury, Helen C. F. Donald, Jenny E. Jaffe, Inez Januszczak, Liam D Fitzpatrick, Caela Burrell, Hannah Davies, A. Dastjerdi, Simon Spiro","doi":"10.1007/s10393-024-01680-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-024-01680-z","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51027,"journal":{"name":"Ecohealth","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140667443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Chlamydia psittaci Screening of Animal Workers from Argentina Exposed to Carrier Birds 对接触带菌鸟类的阿根廷动物工人进行鹦鹉热衣原体筛查
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecohealth Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-024-01683-w
Patricio Favier, Guillermo M. Wiemeyer, Maite B. Arias, Claudia S. Lara, Gabriela Vilar, Ana J. Crivelli, Herman K. Ludvik, María I. Ardiles, María L. Teijeiro, María J. Madariaga, María J. Rolón, María E. Cadario
{"title":"Chlamydia psittaci Screening of Animal Workers from Argentina Exposed to Carrier Birds","authors":"Patricio Favier, Guillermo M. Wiemeyer, Maite B. Arias, Claudia S. Lara, Gabriela Vilar, Ana J. Crivelli, Herman K. Ludvik, María I. Ardiles, María L. Teijeiro, María J. Madariaga, María J. Rolón, María E. Cadario","doi":"10.1007/s10393-024-01683-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-024-01683-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Different syndromes are involved in human psittacosis (flu-like syndrome, atypical pneumonia up to lacrimal gland lymphoma). Diagnostic methods include serology, culture, and PCR. The rate of <i>Chlamydia psittaci</i> (Cp) positive tests among exposed workers is still unknown. Our study aimed to assess the rate of positive tests among workers who have contact with carrier birds in natural reserves from Buenos Aires, Argentina. Secondary aims were to analyze risk factors linked to these outcomes and the occurrence of signs that suggest psittacosis. Nasopharyngeal swabs and serum pairs were collected from employees who had interacted with confirmed carrier birds. Those with detectable DNA of Cp and/or anti<i>-Chlamydia</i> spp. antibody baseline titer ≥ 160 mUI/ml, or at least quadruplicating, were considered positive. Activities performed with or near birds, personal protective equipment use, and previous chronic conditions were assessed. Possible Cp-related pathologies were evaluated during follow-up. A total of 63 exposed workers (71.4% men) with a median age of 35.7 years (IQR 26–39) were evaluated to detect 28.6% positives. Respiratory chronic conditions were the unique factor associated with positive tests (OR 5.2 [1.5–18.5] <i>p</i> &lt; .05). Surprisingly, about a third of the workers resulted positive and all responded to medical treatment, none developing an acute atypical pneumonia syndrome associated with classical presentation of psittacosis. Active testing for early diagnosis and proper treatment in zoological workers exposed to carrier or potentially carrier birds is strongly suggested as part of zoonotic diseases preventive measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":51027,"journal":{"name":"Ecohealth","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140630077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Correction: Marine Protected Area Expansion and Country-Level Age-Standardized Adult Mortality. 更正:海洋保护区扩张与国家级年龄标准化成人死亡率。
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecohealth Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-023-01672-5
Sabrina S Haque, Baylin J Bennett, Thomas D Brewer, Karyn Morrissey, Lora E Fleming, Matthew O Gribble
{"title":"Correction: Marine Protected Area Expansion and Country-Level Age-Standardized Adult Mortality.","authors":"Sabrina S Haque, Baylin J Bennett, Thomas D Brewer, Karyn Morrissey, Lora E Fleming, Matthew O Gribble","doi":"10.1007/s10393-023-01672-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10393-023-01672-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51027,"journal":{"name":"Ecohealth","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11127799/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139479638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
By-degree Health and Economic Impacts of Lyme Disease, Eastern and Midwestern United States. 莱姆病对美国东部和中西部地区健康和经济的逐级影响。
IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学
Ecohealth Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-024-01676-9
Haisheng Yang, Caitlin A Gould, Russ Jones, Alexis St Juliana, Marcus Sarofim, Matt Rissing, Micah B Hahn
{"title":"By-degree Health and Economic Impacts of Lyme Disease, Eastern and Midwestern United States.","authors":"Haisheng Yang, Caitlin A Gould, Russ Jones, Alexis St Juliana, Marcus Sarofim, Matt Rissing, Micah B Hahn","doi":"10.1007/s10393-024-01676-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10393-024-01676-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Lyme disease (LD) is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States (U.S.). This paper assesses how climate change may influence LD incidence in the eastern and upper Midwestern U.S. and the associated economic burden. We estimated future Ixodes scapularis habitat suitability and LD incidence with a by-degree approach using variables from an ensemble of multiple climate models. We then applied estimates for present-day and projected habitat suitability for I. scapularis, present-day presence of Borrelia burgdorferi, and projected climatological variables to model reported LD incidence at the county level among adults, children, and the total population. Finally, we applied an estimate of healthcare expenses to project economic impacts. We show an overall increase in LD cases with regional variation. We estimate an increase in incidence in New England and the upper Midwestern U.S. and a concurrent decrease in incidence in Virginia and North Carolina. At 3°C of national warming from the 1986-2015 baseline climate, we project approximately 55,000 LD cases, a 38-percent increase from present-day estimates. At 6°C of warming, our most extreme scenario, we project approximately 92,000 LD cases in the region, an increase of 145 percent relative to current levels. Annual LD-related healthcare expenses at 3°C of warming are estimated to be $236 million (2021 dollars), approximately 38 percent greater than present-day. These results may inform decision-makers tasked with addressing climate risks, the public, and healthcare professionals preparing for treatment and prevention of LD.</p>","PeriodicalId":51027,"journal":{"name":"Ecohealth","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11127817/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140121280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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