The Future Abundance of Key Bird Species for Pathogen Transmission in the Netherlands.

IF 2.2 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Martha Dellar, Henk Sierdsema, Maarten Schrama, Gertjan Geerling, Peter M van Bodegom
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Wild birds serve as reservoirs and vectors for many different pathogens. Changes in their distribution and abundance, due to environmental change, will influence disease risk. We investigated potential changes in abundance for three commonly occurring species that are likely major drivers of a wide range of diseases: blackbirds, mallards and house sparrows. These are competent hosts for avian influenza and West Nile virus, among other pathogens. Using the Netherlands as a case study, we created random forest models for predicting the distribution and (relative) abundance of these species, both now (1991-2020) and in the future (2036-2065). The three species had different spatial distributions, largely related to their preferred habitat and food availability. In the future, mallard and house sparrow populations were predicted to increase, while there was little change for blackbirds. These changes in abundance have a potentially strong relationship with disease risk, since species abundance is linked to the size of pathogen reservoirs. We demonstrate this relationship by linking blackbird abundance to cases of Usutu virus in the Netherlands. Our work illustrates the potential value of forecasting (relative) abundance to estimate future disease risk and to assist planning of disease management actions.

荷兰病原传播关键鸟类未来丰度。
野生鸟类是许多不同病原体的宿主和媒介。由于环境变化,它们的分布和丰度发生变化,将影响疾病风险。我们调查了三种常见物种的潜在丰度变化,它们可能是各种疾病的主要驱动因素:黑鸟、绿头鸭和家麻雀。它们是禽流感和西尼罗病毒以及其他病原体的合格宿主。以荷兰为例,我们创建了随机森林模型,用于预测这些物种的分布和(相对)丰度,包括现在(1991-2020年)和未来(2036-2065年)。三种植物的空间分布不同,主要与它们偏好的栖息地和食物可得性有关。在未来,绿头鸭和家雀的数量预计会增加,而画眉鸟的数量几乎没有变化。这些丰度变化可能与疾病风险密切相关,因为物种丰度与病原体储存库的大小有关。我们通过将黑鸟的丰度与荷兰的Usutu病毒病例联系起来,证明了这种关系。我们的工作说明了预测(相对)丰度在估计未来疾病风险和协助规划疾病管理行动方面的潜在价值。
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来源期刊
Ecohealth
Ecohealth 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
4.00%
发文量
45
审稿时长
>24 weeks
期刊介绍: EcoHealth aims to advance research, practice, and knowledge integration at the interface of ecology and health by publishing high quality research and review articles that address and profile new ideas, developments, and programs. The journal’s scope encompasses research that integrates concepts and theory from many fields of scholarship (including ecological, social and health sciences, and the humanities) and draws upon multiple types of knowledge, including those of relevance to practice and policy. Papers address integrated ecology and health challenges arising in public health, human and veterinary medicine, conservation and ecosystem management, rural and urban development and planning, and other fields that address the social-ecological context of health. The journal is a central platform for fulfilling the mission of the EcoHealth Alliance to strive for sustainable health of people, domestic animals, wildlife, and ecosystems by promoting discovery, understanding, and transdisciplinarity. The journal invites substantial contributions in the following areas: One Health and Conservation Medicine o Integrated research on health of humans, wildlife, livestock and ecosystems o Research and policy in ecology, public health, and agricultural sustainability o Emerging infectious diseases affecting people, wildlife, domestic animals, and plants o Research and practice linking human and animal health and/or social-ecological systems o Anthropogenic environmental change and drivers of disease emergence in humans, wildlife, livestock and ecosystems o Health of humans and animals in relation to terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems Ecosystem Approaches to Health o Systems thinking and social-ecological systems in relation to health o Transdiiplinary approaches to health, ecosystems and society.
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