Martha Dellar, Henk Sierdsema, Maarten Schrama, Gertjan Geerling, Peter M van Bodegom
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Wild birds serve as reservoirs and vectors for many different pathogens. Changes in their distribution and abundance, due to environmental change, will influence disease risk. We investigated potential changes in abundance for three commonly occurring species that are likely major drivers of a wide range of diseases: blackbirds, mallards and house sparrows. These are competent hosts for avian influenza and West Nile virus, among other pathogens. Using the Netherlands as a case study, we created random forest models for predicting the distribution and (relative) abundance of these species, both now (1991-2020) and in the future (2036-2065). The three species had different spatial distributions, largely related to their preferred habitat and food availability. In the future, mallard and house sparrow populations were predicted to increase, while there was little change for blackbirds. These changes in abundance have a potentially strong relationship with disease risk, since species abundance is linked to the size of pathogen reservoirs. We demonstrate this relationship by linking blackbird abundance to cases of Usutu virus in the Netherlands. Our work illustrates the potential value of forecasting (relative) abundance to estimate future disease risk and to assist planning of disease management actions.
期刊介绍：
EcoHealth aims to advance research, practice, and knowledge integration at the interface of ecology and health by publishing high quality research and review articles that address and profile new ideas, developments, and programs. The journal’s scope encompasses research that integrates concepts and theory from many fields of scholarship (including ecological, social and health sciences, and the humanities) and draws upon multiple types of knowledge, including those of relevance to practice and policy. Papers address integrated ecology and health challenges arising in public health, human and veterinary medicine, conservation and ecosystem management, rural and urban development and planning, and other fields that address the social-ecological context of health. The journal is a central platform for fulfilling the mission of the EcoHealth Alliance to strive for sustainable health of people, domestic animals, wildlife, and ecosystems by promoting discovery, understanding, and transdisciplinarity.
The journal invites substantial contributions in the following areas:
One Health and Conservation Medicine
o Integrated research on health of humans, wildlife, livestock and ecosystems
o Research and policy in ecology, public health, and agricultural sustainability
o Emerging infectious diseases affecting people, wildlife, domestic animals, and plants
o Research and practice linking human and animal health and/or social-ecological systems
o Anthropogenic environmental change and drivers of disease emergence in humans, wildlife, livestock and ecosystems
o Health of humans and animals in relation to terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems
Ecosystem Approaches to Health
o Systems thinking and social-ecological systems in relation to health
o Transdiiplinary approaches to health, ecosystems and society.
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