Agricultural and Forest Meteorology最新文献

{"title":"Comprehensive analysis of BVOCs in Shanghai, China: Emission patterns, inventory, and association with ozone pollution","authors":"Xiang Xu ,&nbsp;Zhihua Xiao ,&nbsp;Yuanzhi Ni ,&nbsp;Xuan Zhao ,&nbsp;Cheng Peng ,&nbsp;Limei Cao ,&nbsp;Wei Zhang ,&nbsp;Hongli Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110832","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110832","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) influence urban air quality through atmospheric chemical reactions, yet current understanding of their emissions and associated pollution in megacities remains insufficient. This study investigated major agricultural and natural vegetation in Shanghai, China, measuring BVOC emission rates from 15 plant species across different growing seasons, analyzing seasonal variations in emission components and rates, and constructing an emission inventory based on the 'G95′ model. The results identified isoprene and monoterpenes as the primary emitted compounds. Emission rates from dominant tree species and characteristic urban landscape plants peaked in summer and decreased in winter. Significant differences were observed in BVOC emissions from crops and economic fruit species across different phenological stages. <em>Populus tomentosa</em> exhibited the highest isoprene emission rate at 72.94 ± 4.74 μg·g^-1·h^-1, while <em>Cinnamomum camphora, Magnolia grandiflora, Osmanthus fragrans</em>, and <em>Euonymus japonicus</em> showed relatively lower emissions. In 2022, total BVOC emissions reached 14,608.6 tonnes, with isoprene as the predominant contributor. The total ozone (O₃) formation potential (OFP) of isoprene and monoterpenes was 66,940.0 tonnes and 12,666.6 tonnes, respectively. Woodland served as the primary source of BVOC emissions, with <em>Populus tomentosa</em> contributing the most to the OFP of isoprene and <em>Metasequoia glyptostroboides</em> to that of monoterpenes. <em>Oryza sativa</em> contributed the most to the OFP of isoprene and monoterpenes from cropland. Monthly variations in BVOC emissions aligned with O₃ pollution trends, following a single-peaked distribution. This study provides a theoretical foundation for selecting urban greening tree species and developing regional emission reduction strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"375 ","pages":"Article 110832"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145043280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trend analysis of methane uptake in 13 forest soils based on up to 24 years of field measurements in south-west Germany","authors":"Verena Lang ,&nbsp;Valentin Gartiser ,&nbsp;Peter Hartmann ,&nbsp;Martin Maier","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110823","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110823","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Methane (CH₄) plays a crucial role in global climate dynamics as a potent greenhouse gas. Forest soils are the most important terrestrial CH₄-sinks, yet long-term trends in CH₄-uptake remain underexplored, due to the lack of long-term field measurements on the same site. This study presents findings from a soil gas monitoring programme in 13 forest soils in south-west Germany of up to 24 years, which represents currently the worldwide largest dataset of continuous CH₄-fluxes. CH₄-uptake was calculated from soil gas profiles and validated through chamber measurements. CH₄-uptake ranged from 0.55 to 3.31 nmol m⁻s⁻¹ with significant site-specific variability, and was on average 1.40 ± 1.29 nmol m⁻² s⁻¹. Our analysis shows an increase in CH₄-uptake of 3% per year on average. During the observation period annual precipitation decreased and soil moisture as well, while soil temperatures increased, what we identified as the most probable explanation of the observed trend. The observed long-term trends in CH₄-uptake are in contrast to the latest studies. However, they perfectly agree in the explanation of the observed trend, which is the trend in local precipitation patterns, just that the local precipitation patterns followed different directions. Thus, this study demonstrates the value of long-term data sets as well as the importance climate projections that also include reliable precipitation predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"375 ","pages":"Article 110823"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145027134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon emissions from forest harvest and fire offset approximately half of carbon sequestration of forestation in China during 1986-2020","authors":"Jin Mai ,&nbsp;Yaoliang Chen ,&nbsp;Qinghai Song ,&nbsp;Zhiying Xu ,&nbsp;Dengsheng Lu ,&nbsp;Geping Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110830","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110830","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forest activities and fire disturbance (FAFD) play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Although many studies have been explored to examine the individual effect of forestation, forest harvest, and forest fire on the carbon cycle in China, their combined impacts remain unclear. Moreover, rare research has been examined the impacts of these activities at the species level on the net carbon budget. By integrating remotely sensed, detailed tree species and statistical data into a spatialized modeling approach, we estimated the carbon budget from three major FAFD (i.e., forestation, forest harvest and forest fire) in China during 1986-2020. We found that FAFD overall showed net carbon sequestration of total -710.64±136.4 Tg C with sequestration of -1529.36 ± 202.59 Tg C from forestation and emission of 585.38 ± 29.91 Tg C from forest harvest and 233.34 ± 36.28 Tg C from fire. Spatially, the national average carbon sequestration density from FAFD was -172.95 Mg C km^-2, with notable regional variations. Carbon emissions from forest harvest and fire offset 53.52% (38.26% and 15.26%, respectively) of carbon sequestration from forestation. More than 90% of tree species exhibited net carbon sequestration from forestation and harvest. The national offset impact of forest harvest varied by tree species, ranging from 3.51% to 101.27%. Owing to high carbon emission from forest harvest, <em>Quercus</em> and <em>Eucalyptus</em> showed large offset effects over 97%. In contrast, <em>Pinus tabulaeformis</em> and <em>Larix</em> demonstrated small offset effects of only 3.51% and 10.23% due to high carbon sequestration. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for carbon emissions from deforestation and forest fire when aiming to maximize carbon sequestration through forestation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"375 ","pages":"Article 110830"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145017964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantification of vegetation and meteorological variables influencing the kinetic energy of raindrops","authors":"Lana Radulović,&nbsp;Katarina Zabret,&nbsp;Mojca Šraj","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110835","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110835","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The process of interception, whereby vegetation partitions rainfall, largely influences natural processes such as soil erosion. The kinetic energy of rainfall plays a crucial role in evaluating this impact. In this study, we measured rainfall characteristics using three disdrometers placed above and below vegetation, specifically under two distinct tree species (birch and pine) in an urban area in Ljubljana, Slovenia. The study period extends over two years, subdivided into a dry and a wet sub-period. The investigation encompasses the effects of vegetation characteristics, raindrops characteristics and meteorological variables on the kinetic energy of throughfall. Two methods, namely boosted regression trees and random forest, were used to evaluate the influence of vegetation and meteorological variables on raindrop characteristics and their kinetic energy. The results indicate that, in general, pine reduces the kinetic energy of raindrops to a much greater extent than birch, and that birch exerts a positive effect on the reduction of kinetic energy only during the leafed period. Both applied machine learning models confirmed that the amount of throughfall has the greatest influence on kinetic energy, regardless of vegetation type. Furthermore, rainfall intensity and median-volume drop diameter exhibited a greater influence in the case of pine compared to the birch tree. Additionally, the findings indicate that the influence of the event duration on kinetic energy of throughfall differs depending on the presence of foliage on the tree canopy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"375 ","pages":"Article 110835"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145017908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of grassland biomass in China from 2000 to 2022","authors":"Shuai Wang ,&nbsp;Xinshan Ma ,&nbsp;Yan Yue ,&nbsp;Tao Zhou ,&nbsp;Zhihan Yang ,&nbsp;Benjamin Laffitte ,&nbsp;Songyu Fu ,&nbsp;Xiaolu Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110833","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110833","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Grassland biomass is a key indicator for assessing the health and productivity of grassland ecosystems. Over the past two decades, China’s grasslands have undergone substantial changes. However, accurately estimating grassland biomass and its response to driving factors remains challenging. In this study, we predicted the spatiotemporal patterns of aboveground and belowground biomass (AGB and BGB) and examined their driving mechanisms at a 500 m resolution from 2000 to 2022, using a modified multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network combined with 2233 AGB and 1093 BGB observations, along with environmental variables across China. The MLP model demonstrated strong predictive performance for AGB (<em>R</em>² = 0.79, <em>RMSE</em> = 20.02 g C <em>m</em>⁻² yr⁻¹) and BGB (<em>R</em>² = 0.87, <em>RMSE</em> = 223.65 g C <em>m</em>⁻² yr⁻¹). Spatially, average AGB decreased from southeastern to northwest China, while BGB was highest along the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Temporally, AGB increased by 1.27 Tg C yr⁻¹ over the past 23 years, covering 68.19 % of grassland areas, whereas BGB showed no significant trend. Projections indicate that AGB will increase in 48.6 % and BGB in 34.81 % of grassland areas in the future. Total AGB and BGB were estimated at 163.5 and 1044.5 Tg C, respectively. Temperature and precipitation were the primary drivers of both AGB (23.47 % and 20.21 % of grassland areas) and BGB (25.24 % and 21.05 %). For AGB, the remaining drivers, in descending order of influence, were vegetation, human activity intensity, soil physical properties, soil chemical properties, and terrain. For BGB, they were human activity intensity, followed by vegetation, soil physical properties, soil chemical properties, and terrain. This study offers critical insights for grassland biomass dynamics and their driving mechanisms, providing a scientific foundation for policy-making and adaptive management to ensure the long-term resilience of grassland ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"375 ","pages":"Article 110833"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145007303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development and application of an eddy covariance system based on amplitude-modulated cavity-enhanced absorption spectroscopy for NO2 flux measurement in a wheat field","authors":"Qianqian Du ,&nbsp;Jiacheng Zhou ,&nbsp;Weixiong Zhao ,&nbsp;Shichuan Ni ,&nbsp;Chong Zhang ,&nbsp;Chunxiang Ye ,&nbsp;Weihua Cui ,&nbsp;Weijun Zhang ,&nbsp;Yanfeng Huo ,&nbsp;Yanyu Lu ,&nbsp;Zhu Zhu ,&nbsp;Yue Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110826","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110826","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Long-term measurements of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) flux are essential for improving understanding of the mechanisms underlying biosphere-atmosphere NO₂ exchange and elucidating its role in secondary pollutant formation. However, accurately quantifying NO₂ flux remains a challenge due to the absence of a robust fast response gas analyzer. In this work, we report the development of an eddy covariance (EC) NO₂ flux observation system based on amplitude-modulated cavity-enhanced absorption spectroscopy (AM-CEAS) technique, along with its application in a wheat field. Based on a NO₂ detection precision of 78 pptv (1<em>σ</em>) at 10 Hz, the NO₂ flux detection limit was estimated to be 4.65 µg N m⁻² h⁻¹. An analysis of spectral damping showed median flux losses of 24.96 % in the high-frequency range and 0.37 % at low frequencies. The median random error was estimated at 39.64 %. During the observation period, the wheat field acted as a net source of atmospheric NO₂, with a median NO₂ flux of 11.47 (−138.59 − 200.75) µg N m⁻² h⁻¹. Relative dominance of fertilizer, soil temperature, and soil moisture in controlling NO₂ emissions shifted competitively with varying soil conditions. This indicated a key gap in current NOₓ estimates, where simplified driver constraints diverge from observed emissions. A strong dependence of NO₂ exchange rates on their atmospheric concentrations was observed, indicating the existence of a compensation point or a similar mechanism. The compensation point was further estimated to range from 4 to 5 ppbv. Based on the advantages of high sensitivity, and minimal maintenance of AM-CEAS, the flux observation system demonstrated good performance, and provided the potential for investigating NO₂ flux using the EC method across diverse temporal scales.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"375 ","pages":"Article 110826"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145003473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Periodic cropping of pasture for summer-grazed turnips leads to substantial carbon loss","authors":"Aaron M. Wall ,&nbsp;Jordan P. Goodrich ,&nbsp;Seager Ray ,&nbsp;David I. Campbell ,&nbsp;Louis A. Schipper","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110803","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110803","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding how management practices impact carbon (C) cycling in agroecosystems is critical from the perspective of greenhouse gas emissions and to ensure ongoing soil quality, production and profitability of the land. Here, we quantified the net ecosystem C balance (NECB) of two grazed summer turnip crops grown as part of the pasture renewal process – a common management practice of New Zealand dairy grasslands. The NECB was calculated from measurements of net ecosystem production obtained using eddy covariance and measurements or estimates of all other major flows of C into and out of two adjacent paddocks. The NECB of the two turnip crop periods (∼7 months in length) indicated C losses of −539 and −596 g C m⁻² period⁻¹. Carbon was also lost from the adjacent pasture paddock during both crop periods, thus reducing the net effect (i.e., turnips minus pasture) of the periodic cropping of grazed turnips to −441 and −413 g C m⁻² period⁻¹. Returns of C during grazing via grazing wastage and excreta deposition offset some of the C lost from ecosystem respiration during the long periods with no or limited photosynthesis partly reducing total C loss. Soil C stocks were also measured via direct soil sampling to 0.6 m before and after the turnip crops. However, high spatial variability of direct soil sampling prevented corroboration of the C loss calculated by the NECB. The NECB approach was able to detect much smaller changes in carbon than practical soil sampling approaches allowed. We concluded that the production of grazed turnips for supplemental feed as part of the pasture renewal process resulted in significant C loss that must be recaptured under a return to pasture before further cropping to avoid a downward staircase of C stocks in these agroecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"375 ","pages":"Article 110803"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145003478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bark beetles as microclimate engineers – thermal characteristics of infested spruce trees at the canopy surface and below the canopy","authors":"Caroline Greiser ,&nbsp;Langning Huo ,&nbsp;Mark Ghaly ,&nbsp;Ian Brown ,&nbsp;Christophe Metsu ,&nbsp;Koenraad Van Meerbeek ,&nbsp;Philipp Lehmann","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110796","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110796","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over recent decades, Spruce bark beetle outbreaks have expanded and intensified across Europe, driven by a warming climate and more frequent drought events. While research has largely focused on early detection and vulnerability prediction, little is known about the consequences of beetle infestations on forest microclimates. Bark beetle attacks are expected to alter forest microclimates due to changes in canopy cover, albedo, wind patterns, and evapotranspiration. We explored the effect of bark beetle attacks on summer forest microclimate using two approaches.</div><div>Firstly, we measured understory microclimate at 2-m height in 31 Swedish forest stands using small temperature loggers. Along a gradient of attack severity, represented by increasing proportions of attacked spruces, maximum summer day-time temperatures increased by up to 2°C, with this warming effect being moderated by the presence of deciduous broadleaf trees. Surprisingly, night-time minimum temperatures were not affected by bark beetle attacks.</div><div>Secondly, we mapped canopy surface temperature over one part of the study area using multispectral and thermal drone imaging, contrasting canopy temperatures of living and dead trees. We observed that dead trees were generally warmer than living trees, by an average of 2.6°C on a sunny day and 0.7°C on a cloudy day.</div><div>Our study documented changes in thermal regimes in both the understory and overstory after bark beetle attacks, indicating that climate-change related disturbances are fueling rapid increases in microclimate warming. However, even dead forest stands may function as thermal buffers for understory vegetation, as we found minimum temperatures being unaffected by bark beetles. Finally, our results suggest that increasing the proportion of deciduous trees can decrease the risk of bark-beetle induced microclimate warming. The insights gained can guide forest succession and regeneration management after disturbances, contributing to critical decisions on conservation areas and salvage logging strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"375 ","pages":"Article 110796"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144995389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A machine learning framework for modeling and upscaling mangrove carbon productivity (ML-MCP)","authors":"Karam Alsafadi ,&nbsp;Amit Kumar Srivastava ,&nbsp;Krishnagopal Halder ,&nbsp;Feifei Wang ,&nbsp;Shengchang Yang ,&nbsp;Wenzhi Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110821","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110821","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming has intensified the pursuit of carbon neutrality, drawing increased attention to mangroves for their critical role in carbon sequestration and CO₂ uptake. Various models have been developed to estimate the Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) of mangrove ecosystems using satellite data; however, uncertainties persist in daily carbon uptake predictions. This study addresses this gap by introducing the Machine Learning-based Mangroves Carbon Production (ML-MCP) model, which integrates process-driven and remote sensing-based approaches. Among the tested machine learning models, XGBoost performed the best, achieving an R² of 0.67 across four sites and 0.78 at the Fujian Zhangjiangkou Mangrove Nature Reserve. However, the complexity of mangrove ecosystems—shaped by environmental gradients and stressors—poses challenges for accurate model predictions. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified the light-limited photosynthetic rate (PI) as the most critical factor influencing GPP, while the soil salinity index (SI) also played a significant role when data was aggregated. Additionally, temperature index (TI) emerged as the second most important factor affecting GPP at the SKR-US and ZJ-CN sites. These findings highlight the necessity of adopting context-specific approaches for effective ecosystem management. While machine learning models show great potential for predicting GPP, the unique challenges of mangrove ecosystems call for enhanced data collection, specialized modeling techniques, and a deeper understanding of mangrove-specific processes to improve model performance in these vital coastal environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"375 ","pages":"Article 110821"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144995392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spring phenology projections for apples in southwestern Germany indicate persistent frost risk levels","authors":"Lars Caspersen ,&nbsp;Katja Schiffers ,&nbsp;Anton Milyaev ,&nbsp;Daniel Neuwald ,&nbsp;Eike Luedeling","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110824","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110824","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Spring frost poses a significant risk to apple production, prompting growers to invest in mitigation measures. Climate change is expected to affect both the occurrence of frost and the timing of phenological stages sensitive to frost. While warmer winters may reduce frost occurrence, earlier phenology could increase frost exposure. The combined effect on potential frost damage remains uncertain. We updated the PhenoFlex model to project multiple phenological stages—budbreak, first and full bloom—and assessed frost risk during the period from budbreak to full bloom for three apple cultivars in Ravensburg, southern Germany. We chose a frost threshold of -1 °C, as temperatures below trigger automated frost irrigation. Using the RMAWGEN weather generator, we simulated temperature scenarios under historical (2008–2022) and future (2035–2065, 2070–2100) conditions across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, SSP5–8.5). Phenology advanced by 2050, more strongly for full bloom (3.9 ± 2.8 days under SSP1–2.6, 6.3 ± 2.6 days under SSP5–8.5) than budbreak (0.4 ± 3.8 days under SSP1–2.6, 2.7 ± 3.3 days under SSP5–8.5). Frost risk dropped notably in early February (75 % in 2015 to 49–40 % by 2050), but less so in mid-March (32 % in 2015 to 23–31 % by 2050). Despite more frost-free seasons, the chance of 1–10 frost hours during the budbreak-to-bloom phase remains stable (2015: 31 %; 2050: 33 %; 2085: 21–27 %). The share of frost-free seasons remains similar (67 % in 2015; 54–57 % in 2050), though up to three frost nights per season remains possible. These findings inform future frost protection planning under climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"374 ","pages":"Article 110824"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144931028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}