Agricultural and Forest Meteorology最新文献

{"title":"Evaluation of water use efficiency model in evapotranspiration partitioning from high-frequency eddy covariance data - a comparison between plantation sites","authors":"Xin Wang ,&nbsp;Zhipeng Li ,&nbsp;Yu Zhou ,&nbsp;Yiheng Wang ,&nbsp;Sarir Ahmad ,&nbsp;Meijun Hu ,&nbsp;Shoujia Sun ,&nbsp;Hui Huang ,&nbsp;Jinsong Zhang ,&nbsp;Lihai Zhai","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110663","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110663","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Water use efficiency (WUE) represents a crucial parameter and a major source of error influencing the accuracy of evapotranspiration separation through flux variance similarity (FVS). However, there is a paucity of studies investigating the application of FVS for the separation of evapotranspiration across multiple plantations, thereby constraining our understanding of water use strategies in plantation forests. This study assessed the outcomes of four intercellular carbon dioxide models and an optimization model (Opt) within the FVS framework, utilizing Eddy Covariance (EC) data gathered from two broad-leaf plantations and four coniferous plantations. Additionally, we examined the relationship between WUE and solution rate, as well as the responsiveness of the proportion of transpiration to evapotranspiration (T:ET) to soil moisture. The results showed that the solution rate of the Sqrt model differed by only 1 % - 2 % from the constant Ci value (Ci) and the constant Ci/Ca ratio (K) model in plantations, excluding Pinus <em>tabuliformis</em>. Moreover, the Sqrt model exhibited an average overestimation of T:ET by 8 % compared to the Opt model. The solution rate of Ci, K, and Sqrt models were decreased with an increase in WUE. At a half-hour scale and daily scale, the plantation's solution rate was ranged from 39 % to 67 %, and 29 % to 76 %, respectively. Except for the Linear model, all other models effectively tracked the dynamic changes in soil moisture. This study enhanced our understanding about the distinctions and consistencies in FVS separation among five WUE models in plantations, providing a foundation for the selection of WUE models to elucidate water use strategies in plantations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"372 ","pages":"Article 110663"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144184797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A multimodal machine learning fused global 0.1° daily evapotranspiration dataset from 1950-2022","authors":"Qingchen Xu ,&nbsp;Lu Li ,&nbsp;Zhongwang Wei ,&nbsp;Xingjie Lu ,&nbsp;Nan Wei ,&nbsp;Xuhui Lee ,&nbsp;Yongjiu Dai","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110645","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110645","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest hydrological flux over the land surface and connects water, energy, and carbon cycles. However, large uncertainties exist among current ET products due to their coarse spatial resolutions, short temporal coverages, and reliance on assumptions. This study introduces a multimodal machine learning framework to generate a high-resolution (0.1°, daily), long-term (1950–2022) global ET dataset by fusing 13 state-of-the-art ET products encompassing remote sensing, machine learning, land surface models, and reanalysis data relying on extensive flux tower observations (462 sites). The framework reconstructs the individual ET products to consistent spatiotemporal resolutions and time ranges using Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) models, and the Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) technique was used to fuse ET using 13 reconstructed ET products, ERA5-land atmospheric forcings and ancillary data as predictors. In-situ observations are utilized for model training and validation. Results demonstrate significant improvements over existing datasets, with our product achieving the highest accuracy (KGE = 0.857, RMSE = 0.726 mm/day) against in situ measurements across ecosystems and regions. The fused ET dataset realistically captures spatiotemporal variability and corrects the systematic underestimation bias prevalent in other datasets, particularly in wet regions. This novel high spatial-temporal ET dataset enables more robust assessments for water, energy, and carbon cycle applications on regional hydrology and ecology. The introduced data integration methodology also provides a valuable framework for fusing multiple geoscience datasets with disparate properties.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"372 ","pages":"Article 110645"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144184796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Direct and indirect effects of spring phenology on forest transpiration","authors":"Lvlv Wang ,&nbsp;Dunxian She ,&nbsp;Yuting Yang ,&nbsp;Lin Meng ,&nbsp;Jun Xia","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110661","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110661","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vegetation phenology serves as a crucial impact on terrestrial ecosystem, yet its long-term effects on hydrological process, especially seasonal transpiration changes, remain understudied compared to the extensive vegetation-carbon coupling. Here, leveraging long-term solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and satellite-retrieved vegetation transpiration (TR) datasets, we assessed the response of vegetation transpiration to phenology change during the start of the growing season (SOS) and peak of season (POS) spanning 1982‒2018 in China. By decomposing the increase in cumulative TR during SOS and POS into two parts, i.e. the TR_pheno due to earlier SOS and TR_product driven by vegetation productivity, we found that a one-day SOS advancement directly increased TR_pheno by 1.80 ± 0.44 mm, while indirectly reduced TR_product by -1.08 ± 0.80 mm. This indirect effect was due to a higher spring SIF induced by earlier SOS, which accelerated TR_pheno but also exacerbated soil moisture depletion, limiting the subsequent TR_product. The direct and indirect effects of spring phenology on TR was found to strengthen over last 37 years using a 15-year moving window analysis. Additionally, differences among plant species underscored the role of plants hydraulic traits in regulating transpiration. Needleleaf forest exhibited a smaller increase in SIF and positive relationship between SIF and soil moisture, thereby mitigating the moisture constrain on TR_product increasing (coefficient = 0.11, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.05). Our findings highlighted the phenological feedback on hydrological cycle through plant transpiration processes, emphasizing the importance of accounting for plant-environmental interactions in hydrological projections under climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"372 ","pages":"Article 110661"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144184790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Land use and climatic drivers of early 21st-century fire activity in the Amazon","authors":"Wenxuan Xu ,&nbsp;Jiamin Cen ,&nbsp;Lei Fan ,&nbsp;Yongxue Liu ,&nbsp;Thomas A.J. Janssen ,&nbsp;Peng Liu ,&nbsp;Wei Wu ,&nbsp;Libo Wang ,&nbsp;Nan Li ,&nbsp;Sander Veraverbeke","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110664","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110664","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fire plays a critical role in shaping the Amazon’s ecosystem and carbon dynamics, yet the relative contributions of climatic and land-use drivers remain debated. Here, we used 0.5° by 0.5° aggregated satellite-based active fire (AF) data (2002–2020) combined with land-cover change and climate reanalysis datasets to (1) quantify spatiotemporal change of fire patterns, (2) evaluate the interrelationships between drought, deforestation, and fires while comparing the relative contributions of climatic and land-use drivers, and (3) assess the impact of policy interventions on fire incidence. Our findings reveal that, despite a declining trend in overall fire detections, fire activity has shifted from regional concentration to broader dispersion, advancing deeper into the forest interior. While drought anomalies account for approximately 30 % of fire variability, spatial regression analysis highlights the dominant role of deforestation (coefficient=0.67) and farmland expansion (coefficient=0.20), compared to drought (coefficient=0.05). Notably, deforestation’s contribution to positive fire anomalies declined from ∼ 69 % (Phase I: 2004–2008) to ∼ 41 % (Phase IV: 2016–2020) of the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm), reflecting the partial effectiveness of conservation policies in mitigating fire risk. Nevertheless, the persistent interaction among fires, deforestation, and farmland expansion underscores the critical role of human activities in creating ignition-prone landscapes and stimulating fire occurrences. This study demonstrates the compounding effects of climate and land-use changes on Amazonian fire dynamics, and emphasizes the urgent need for integrated land use policies and climate adaptation strategies to address the enduring fire pressures and safeguard the Amazon’s carbon stocks and biodiversity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"372 ","pages":"Article 110664"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144184795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regulation effect of planted forests on land surface temperature in China","authors":"Zhijiang Zhang ,&nbsp;Kai Yang ,&nbsp;Lunche Wang ,&nbsp;Kai Cheng ,&nbsp;Chao Chen ,&nbsp;Chao Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110660","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110660","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Afforestation has been regarded as a potentially effective strategy for the mitigation of climate warming. China has the largest planted forest area worldwide benefited by a series of large-scale afforestation and reforestation project since the 1970s. The planted forests (PF) have been widely reported as an enduring carbon sink. However, the climatic regulation effect of PF on climate through biophysical process remains unclear. To this end, we utilized satellite observations to quantify the impact of the conversion of grasslands (GRA), croplands (CRO) and natural forests (NF) to PF on land surface temperature (LST) between 2003 and 2012 and illustrated the underlying biophysical mechanisms based on a revised Intrinsic Biophysical Mechanism (IBM) method. The results indicated that afforestation of PF caused negligible daily cooling effect (−0.005 ± 0.002 K) compared with NF while induced obvious daily cooling effect compared with GRA (−0.253 ± 0.004 K) and CRO (−0.162 ± 0.002 K). We also demonstrated that the revised IBM attribution method is applicable in interpreting the biophysical mechanism of PF on LST. Attribution analysis revealed that the surface roughness and Bowen ratio dominated the cooling effect as the surface became rougher and more evaporative cooling after converting NF, GRA, or CRO to PF. The contributions of albedo were less stark compared with other components and presented a weak warming effect. Furthermore, the atmospheric feedback was proved that have a pronounced impact on LST and should be included in the attribution of LST change. This study focuses on the potential of PF afforestation to provide local climate adaptation benefits, filling the gaps of previous studies involved to biophysical effect failure in distinguishing NF and PF, and provides new guidance for local climate impact evaluation when implementing forestry projects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"372 ","pages":"Article 110660"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144169212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A single-tree approach to determine climate-growth patterns of European beech and their seasonality in the species southern distribution area","authors":"Roberto Serrano-Notivoli ,&nbsp;Jernej Jevšenak ,&nbsp;Edurne Martinez del Castillo ,&nbsp;Katarina Čufar ,&nbsp;Nina Škrk-Dolar ,&nbsp;Giovanna Battipaglia ,&nbsp;Jesus Julio Camarero ,&nbsp;Andrew Hacket Pain ,&nbsp;Alistair Jump ,&nbsp;Renzo Motta ,&nbsp;Paola Nola ,&nbsp;Momchil Panayotov ,&nbsp;Ion Catalin Petritan ,&nbsp;Andrei Popa ,&nbsp;Ionel Popa ,&nbsp;Catalin-Constantin Roibu ,&nbsp;Miroslav Svoboda ,&nbsp;Christian Zang ,&nbsp;Tzvetan Zlatanov ,&nbsp;Angela Balzano ,&nbsp;Martin de Luis","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110644","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dry and warm climate conditions in southern Europe represent clear limits for European beech (<em>Fagus sylvatica</em>) growth near the species southern distribution limit, but it is unclear how aridification and changes in seasonal precipitation regimes will affect these forests at the individual level. We explored climate-growth relationships and the seasonality of peak climate signals in European beech using daily climate data and a large collection of tree-ring width series from southern and southeastern Europe through Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs). In most cases we found a positive and significant influence of precipitation on tree growth, and a significant negative effect of maximum temperature. Predictions from the GLMMs revealed a positive impact of precipitation during an 88 day window from spring to early summer (mid-April to mid-July), for an average tree across our network. This critical growing time window ranged from 75 days in warmer and drier conditions, and extended up to 100 days in areas with mild temperatures and moderate summer precipitation. Maximum temperatures negatively affected trees for an average of 27 day window in summer (June-July). This period was reduced to &lt;10 days in locations with wetter and colder summers, rising up to 45 days in sites with drier and warmer summers. The positive effect of precipitation on growth was stronger and commenced earlier in larger trees. Similarly, the negative effects of maximum temperatures were more pronounced for larger trees. The use of daily climate data and a tree-centred approach allowed for capturing critical temporal dynamics in climate-growth relationships that are often overlooked by conventional methods. These insights significantly enhance our understanding of climatic factors influencing individual beech growth at the edge of its distribution range and their seasonal variations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"371 ","pages":"Article 110644"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144146996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of irrigation on heat waves across the North China plain","authors":"Qingxin Li,&nbsp;Baozhong Zhang,&nbsp;Yaqi Wang,&nbsp;Zheng Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110631","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110631","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Irrigation affects the occurrence of heat waves globally, but its dynamics with local climate shifts and varying irrigation levels are not well understood. Utilizing observational data, spatiotemporal multivariate regression, and the window search algorithm, we delineate the effect of irrigation on heat waves in the North China Plain (NCP) before and after 1996. The results indicate that although the overall influence of irrigation is modest, contributing to a reduction of approximately 10 % in heat wave development, significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity is observed. Initially, irrigation mitigated northern and enhanced southern heat waves. Over time, the focus of mitigation expanded southwest, reducing the trend of heat wave frequency by 0.232 days/decade. We believe that local moisture conditions can explain these variations, which are visually represented through land-atmosphere coupling strength. Driven by climate mode shifts, overall aridity across the NCP has intensified, particularly in the southwest. The land-atmosphere coupling strength remains strong in the north but reverses in the southwest, leading to spatiotemporal heterogeneity of irrigation effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"371 ","pages":"Article 110631"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144146994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"No widespread decline in canopy conductance under elevated atmospheric CO2","authors":"Guoqiang Wang ,&nbsp;Baolin Xue ,&nbsp;Jürgen Knauer ,&nbsp;David Helman ,&nbsp;Shengli Tao ,&nbsp;Yiqi Luo ,&nbsp;Junping Wang ,&nbsp;Yinglan A ,&nbsp;Yuntao Wang ,&nbsp;Hua’an Jin ,&nbsp;Qingqing Fang ,&nbsp;Qiao Wang ,&nbsp;Jingfeng Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110649","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110649","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Leaf stomatal conductance and transpiration rates have been commonly presumed to decline under elevated CO₂ concentrations (eCO₂) via partial stomatal closure. While this has great implications for the terrestrial carbon and hydrological balances, eCO₂ effects on stomatal conductance and transpiration at the ecosystem scale are highly debatable. Here, we used global ecosystem-level measurements from 78 eddy covariance sites to study long-term trends in canopy conductance (G_c). An empirical canopy conductance model was also used to quantify the separate contributions of CO₂, gross primary production (GPP), and vapor pressure deficit (D) to the trends in G_c (<em>dG_c/dt</em>). We found that the majority of the 78 sites did not have a significant trend in G_c. Only 15 sites exhibited significant <em>dG_c/dt</em> trends, while the direction of the trends was not consistent across these sites. GPP contributed the most to the change in G_c. D played an essential role in regulating G_c, and favorable climates and low D increased G_c even under eCO₂. Leaf ambient CO₂ concentration (<em>C</em>_a) had a consistent and relatively weak yet negative effect on G_c at most sites. Moreover, a state-of-the-art land surface model (CLM5.0) systematically underestimated G_c for these 78 sites and the model also exhibited a stronger role for CO₂ but a weaker role for D in regulating G_c. Our results reveal the lack of widespread effects of eCO₂ on G_c, and a state-of-the-art land surface model is unable to accurately capture the G_c trends. Our results indicate that the stomatal suppression of evapotranspiration in response to eCO₂ may have been overestimated by these earth system models at large scales. Our findings can help improve models and better project future changes in G_c, evapotranspiration, and runoff in the context of rising CO₂ and climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"371 ","pages":"Article 110649"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144146993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Capacity of a forest to buffer temperature: Does canopy tree species matter?","authors":"Thomas Perot ,&nbsp;Marc Saudreau ,&nbsp;Nathalie Korboulewsky ,&nbsp;Anders Mårell ,&nbsp;Philippe Balandier","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110646","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110646","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We studied the effects of tree species and tree density on the capacity of a forest to buffer understory temperatures during the summer period. We dissociated tree-species and light effects by integrating incident solar irradiance and its proportion intercepted by the canopy into our analyses. We measured solar radiation and air temperature over three consecutive years (2018, 2019 and 2020) in 16 plots in Central France composed of mature stands of sessile oak and Scots pine with three types of composition: monospecific oak, monospecific pine and oak-pine mixture, and two levels of tree density. Air temperature and solar radiation were recorded simultaneously in the experimental plots and in a reference plot without forest cover.</div><div>Our results show that the higher the incident irradiance the greater the difference in minimum temperature, and that the higher the intercepted irradiance the greater the difference in maximum temperature between below-canopy and open conditions. We found that tree species had a significant effect on the buffering capacity even when the light factor was taken into account. For a given incident irradiance and a given proportion of intercepted irradiance, the pine plots buffered understory temperatures less than the oak plots. Our results also show that higher maximum temperatures occurred in the understory than in open conditions for low values of intercepted irradiance and high values of incident irradiance, especially in the plots where Scots pine was present. The two species differ in leaf albedo and in their ability to regulate transpiration during droughts and these two characteristics may explain our results. Our study shows that Scots pine is less able to buffer summer temperatures than sessile oak. These results are of interest to forest managers since reducing stand density and mixing tree species are considered to be silvicultural strategies that can help cope with climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"371 ","pages":"Article 110646"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The TreeChill model: A new framework for predicting the impact of erratic winter weather on trees","authors":"Paula Guzmán-Delgado ,&nbsp;Emily Santos ,&nbsp;Mohammad Yaghmour ,&nbsp;Emilio A. Laca ,&nbsp;Kari Arnold ,&nbsp;Amrit Pokhrel ,&nbsp;Kosana Suvočarev ,&nbsp;Mohamed Nouri ,&nbsp;Katherine Jarvis-Shean ,&nbsp;Louise Ferguson ,&nbsp;Aileen Salas ,&nbsp;Daniel Ruiz ,&nbsp;Giulia Marino","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110647","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110647","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Perennial plants rely on exposure to low winter temperatures to break dormancy, aligning reproductive timing with local weather conditions. Current chill accumulation models quantify this exposure using only air temperature as input, leading to reduced accuracy as climate becomes more variable and unpredictable. This study introduces a novel framework that replaces air temperature with tree temperature as a continuous functional parameter to improve the reliability of chill accumulation calculations. Over three winters, we measured tree temperature and collected weather data in sweet cherry orchards in distinct climate areas. Tree temperature exceeded air temperature, particularly on sunny days, leading to a 15 % reduction in chill accumulation. We developed the <em>TreeChill</em> model, which predicts tree temperature using publicly available weather data with high precision. The model has a coefficient of determination of 0.930 and a standard deviation of residuals of 2.02 °C. The difference in chill accumulation calculated using predicted versus measured tree temperature was only 0.4 chill portions. Tree temperature provided more accurate insights into dormancy-related processes than air temperature. Variations in bloom progression within sweet cherry tree canopies corresponded to differences in tree temperature, and bloom timing was precipitated by prolonged winter chill exposure at the branch level, followed by localized short-term heat exposure. This study integrates macro- and micro-climatic data and plant physiological information and can be used in different climate-related prediction models to enhance their precision. The model will make tree temperature readily available to researchers and stakeholders, facilitating the development of climate change mitigation strategies in agricultural, natural and urban systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"371 ","pages":"Article 110647"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}