Agricultural and Forest Meteorology最新文献

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Mitigating the detrimental effects of climate warming on major staple crop production through adaptive nitrogen management: A meta-analysis 通过适应性氮管理减轻气候变暖对主要作物生产的不利影响:一项荟萃分析
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110524
Pengfei Dang , Philippe Ciais , Josep Peñuelas , Chen Lu , Jiaxin Gao , Yunxiao Zhu , William D. Batchelor , Jiquan Xue , Xiaoliang Qin , Gerard H. Ros
{"title":"Mitigating the detrimental effects of climate warming on major staple crop production through adaptive nitrogen management: A meta-analysis","authors":"Pengfei Dang ,&nbsp;Philippe Ciais ,&nbsp;Josep Peñuelas ,&nbsp;Chen Lu ,&nbsp;Jiaxin Gao ,&nbsp;Yunxiao Zhu ,&nbsp;William D. Batchelor ,&nbsp;Jiquan Xue ,&nbsp;Xiaoliang Qin ,&nbsp;Gerard H. Ros","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110524","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110524","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Crops face vulnerability due to climate change, but the consequences of warming on crop production across diverse environmental conditions need to be better understood. We conducted a global meta-analysis by analyzing 5690 paired observations to understand the warming effects on the production of four major staple crops (wheat, rice, maize, and soybean). Results indicated that a 2.1 °C warming decreases yield for the four crops by 14 %, nitrogen use efficiency by 10 %, and biomass by 4 %. Projections based on future 2 °C warming scenarios indicate that global yields of these four crops could decrease by 17 % across diverse soil conditions and climates, particularly showing greater yield loss in regions with low precipitation and available nitrogen. However, the adverse effects on yield may be alleviated by management measures that improve nitrogen availability such as optimized nitrogen fertilizer inputs and practices that enhance soil nitrogen supply. Our findings underscore the necessity for adapting such practices in crop production systems, particularly in America and China, where adjustments in crop selection, soil management, and fertilizer practices are essential to sustain crop yields and ensure global food security in the forthcoming decades. The appropriate management choice however requires a deeper exploration of the underlying mechanisms behind the observed yield reductions</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"367 ","pages":"Article 110524"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143723822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Early hydrothermal conditions have a vital role in the responses of vegetation to extreme drought in Southwest China 早期热液条件在西南地区植被对极端干旱的响应中具有重要作用
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110523
Xu Xue , Wen Chen
{"title":"Early hydrothermal conditions have a vital role in the responses of vegetation to extreme drought in Southwest China","authors":"Xu Xue ,&nbsp;Wen Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110523","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110523","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Southwest China was affected by two extreme droughts in the autumn to spring of 2012–2013 and the winter to summer of 2020–2021. These droughts caused water depletion, crop damage, and socio-economic disruption. However, little is known about the accurate representation of the two drought events and the responses of vegetation to the droughts. We used multiple vegetation indices and multi-source climate data to quantify the spatiotemporal variations of the two events. We assessed the different responses of vegetation greenness in Southwest China to the two drought events to determine the underlying mechanisms. Vegetation greenness in Southwest China showed different responses to the two events due to differences in the early hydrothermal conditions. The 2012–2013 autumn–spring drought suppressed vegetation growth in Southwest China, with a total decrease of 0.17 (31.7 %) in the normalized difference vegetation index relative to the baseline conditions in the early stage of the drought. The decrease in precipitation and soil water depletion in late summer 2012 aggravated the decrease in vegetation greenness from winter 2012 to spring 2013. By contrast, during the winter–summer drought in 2020–2021, there was an increase of 0.22 (52.3 %) in the normalized difference vegetation index in January–March 2021 relative to the baseline conditions. Adequate precipitation and soil water in the late summer to autumn of 2020 compensated for water loss due to the extreme drought, and, concurrently, more downward solar radiation and warmer conditions linked to less cloudiness contributed to vegetation greening in spring 2021. These results show that early hydrothermal conditions have a vital role in the different responses of vegetation greenness to extreme drought events. These results will help in water management and ecosystem protection in the current background of more frequent extreme weather and climate events resulting from the global climate crisis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"367 ","pages":"Article 110523"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143705273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimation of the nocturnal boundary layer height over the Central Amazon forest using turbulence measurements 利用湍流测量估计亚马孙中部森林夜间边界层高度
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110469
Anne C.S. Mendonça , Cléo Q. Dias-Júnior , Otávio C. Acevedo , Daniel Magnabosco Marra , Ivan M. Cely-Toro , Gilberto Fisch , Daiane V. Brondani , Antônio O. Manzi , Bruno T.T. Portela , Carlos A. Quesada , Luca Mortarini
{"title":"Estimation of the nocturnal boundary layer height over the Central Amazon forest using turbulence measurements","authors":"Anne C.S. Mendonça ,&nbsp;Cléo Q. Dias-Júnior ,&nbsp;Otávio C. Acevedo ,&nbsp;Daniel Magnabosco Marra ,&nbsp;Ivan M. Cely-Toro ,&nbsp;Gilberto Fisch ,&nbsp;Daiane V. Brondani ,&nbsp;Antônio O. Manzi ,&nbsp;Bruno T.T. Portela ,&nbsp;Carlos A. Quesada ,&nbsp;Luca Mortarini","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110469","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110469","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The nocturnal boundary layer height (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>h</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>N</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>) was investigated using one year of data (2022) collected by sonic anemometers installed at 11 heights, above the canopy top on the towers of the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) in Central Amazon. Unlike previous assessments relying on indirect methodologies, in the present study <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>h</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>N</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> was directly estimated from measurements of turbulent fluxes of momentum and kinematic sensible heat. Our findings highlighted the dynamic effect of forest topography: under northeast winds, associated with lower roughness, <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>h</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>N</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> varied between 81 m during very stable stratification and 172 m in neutral conditions. Conversely, under southeast winds, where roughness is higher, <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>h</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>N</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> ranged between 81 and 223 m. These estimates reveal the significant control exerted by atmospheric stability and topography on the <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>h</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>N</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> variability. Interestingly, under neutral and weakly stable stratifications our finds align with the theoretical parameterization proposed in previous works. However, discrepancies emerged in very stable stratification and when the boundary layer structure is influenced by topography.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"367 ","pages":"Article 110469"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143705274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Long-term field observations of the impacts of drought and stand development on runoff in a forested watershed 森林流域干旱和林分发展对径流影响的长期野外观测
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110519
Shulan Sun , Wenhua Xiang , Zhonghui Zhao , Xiangwen Deng , Shuai Ouyang , Liang Chen , Yanting Hu , Yelin Zeng , Changhui Peng
{"title":"Long-term field observations of the impacts of drought and stand development on runoff in a forested watershed","authors":"Shulan Sun ,&nbsp;Wenhua Xiang ,&nbsp;Zhonghui Zhao ,&nbsp;Xiangwen Deng ,&nbsp;Shuai Ouyang ,&nbsp;Liang Chen ,&nbsp;Yanting Hu ,&nbsp;Yelin Zeng ,&nbsp;Changhui Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110519","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110519","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Afforestation is gaining global attention for its role in carbon sequestration and timber production. Afforestation affects hydrological processes in forest ecosystems, including water yield. However, there is a paucity of long-term observation data to examine the effects of afforestation on water yield. Moreover, drought caused by global warming could change the runoff generation process and make the forest–water relationship hotly debated. To fully assess these effects, we used 22-year data from a long-time observation from 1997 to 2019 (excluding missing data in 2017) in a Chinese fir (<em>Cunninghamia lanceolata</em> (Lamb) Hook.) plantation in subtropical China. We analyzed the response of runoff to drought and stand growth post afforestation. Average runoff during drought declined by 41.2%, 37.5%, and 3.7% lower than nondrought events at monthly, seasonal, and yearly timescales, respectively. The drought affected runoff significantly when a drought event lasted 1.2 months, and drought severity was larger than 1.5. Annual runoff and runoff anomaly decreased with stand age during the first 14 years after afforestation and thereafter started to recover. A similar change pattern was found for the relationship between annual runoff and stand biomass. Annual runoff also decreased with an increase in the basal area. Monthly runoff was primarily controlled by rainfall and soil water rather than stand characteristics, while annual runoff largely depended on stand biomass. These findings clarify the relationship between planted forests and water resources and provide insightful information for sustainable water management in forests under global climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"367 ","pages":"Article 110519"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143723821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Interannual carry-over effects of severe drought on field-grown young pear trees 严重干旱对大田育苗梨树的年际结转效应
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110502
Victor Blanco , Lee Kalcsits
{"title":"Interannual carry-over effects of severe drought on field-grown young pear trees","authors":"Victor Blanco ,&nbsp;Lee Kalcsits","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110502","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110502","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Perennial fruit trees will likely face a severe drought during their lifespan as climate change places pressure on irrigation resources. Our understanding of carry-over effects of seasonal drought on physiological performance is limited. This research assessed the physiological effects of soil water deficit on three-year-old field-grown pear trees of the combination ‘D'Anjou’/OHxF.87 and then also evaluated the carry-over effects of the drought the next season even when no water limitations were present. The first season trees under drought stress decreased their midday stem water potential to values below -3.0 MPa, and reduced stomatal conductance and root hydraulic conductance by 72 and 37 % respectively, compared to fully irrigated trees, which greatly penalized their vegetative growth and belowground expansion. Early leaf senescence was observed in stressed trees which at the end of the season had a total leaf area seven times smaller (0.06 m<sup>2</sup>) compared to trees with no water restrictions (0.44 m<sup>2</sup>). The next season, when both treatments were equally irrigated, there were no differences in the stem water potential, with values above -1.0 MPa. However, stomatal conductance for trees that were water limited the previous year remained lower by 32 % compared to those that were fully irrigated both seasons. Trees submitted to drought stress the previous season had smaller leaves with smaller stomata the next season. Moreover, carbon isotope composition in stems and leaves of those trees resulted affected highlighting the lasting effect of the previous season on tree water relations. Our results show that one season of severe drought stress can produce carry-over effects on the physiological and morphological responses of the trees the next season. Recovery from severe droughts can take many seasons even when water limitations do not persist.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"367 ","pages":"Article 110502"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143704583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improving an agroecosystem model to better simulate crop-soil interactions and N2O emissions 改进农业生态系统模型,以更好地模拟作物-土壤相互作用和N2O排放
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110522
Yi Chen , Fulu Tao
{"title":"Improving an agroecosystem model to better simulate crop-soil interactions and N2O emissions","authors":"Yi Chen ,&nbsp;Fulu Tao","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110522","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110522","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agri-food system is facing multiple challenges under climate change. Developing climate-smart agricultural practices need process-based agroecosystem models which better simulate crop production and greenhouse gas emissions simultaneously. However, existing models often prioritize one aspect while oversimplify the other. Here, we develop an agroecosystem model, the MCWLA 2.0, which integrates the process-based crop model MCWLA for simulating crop growth with an improved microbial-implicit and microbial-explicit methods for simulating soil processes, to better simulate crop-soil interactions and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions. The model accounts for the key aboveground and underground processes in agroecosystem, including crop growth, agricultural management, soil carbon and nitrogen cycle, and abiotic stresses from water, temperature and nitrogen. It simulates the nitrification and denitrification processes in a microbial-explicit way. We demonstrate the model in simulating the dynamics of soil environment, nitrogen, N<sub>2</sub>O emissions and crop growth in maize-wheat rotation system, using the field experimental observations of 29 treatments from eight field experiments (spanning 1-4 wheat-maize rotations) at five sites across China. The model is able to capture fairly well the daily dynamics of soil moisture, soil temperature, soil nitrogen and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions, as well as crop yield and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions at seasonal scale. We indicate that MCWLA 2.0 is an effective tool for simulating crop-soil interactions and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions and developing climate-smart agricultural practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"367 ","pages":"Article 110522"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143697644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Declining growth resilience to drought of alpine juniper shrub along an east–west precipitation gradient in the central Himalayas 喜马拉雅中部沿东西降水梯度的高山杜松灌木生长抗旱能力下降
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110515
Jayram Pandey , Shalik Ram Sigdel , Xiaoming Lu , J. Julio Camarero , Eryuan Liang
{"title":"Declining growth resilience to drought of alpine juniper shrub along an east–west precipitation gradient in the central Himalayas","authors":"Jayram Pandey ,&nbsp;Shalik Ram Sigdel ,&nbsp;Xiaoming Lu ,&nbsp;J. Julio Camarero ,&nbsp;Eryuan Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110515","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110515","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding resilience of alpine ecosystem to climatic extremes such as droughts is a key to predict its functioning and vulnerability under changing climate. However, the growth resilience of alpine woody plants to warming–induced moisture stress in the Himalayas remains poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we used annual growth rings of alpine juniper shrubs from 17 sites across five mountain valleys, along an east–west gradient of decreasing precipitation in the central Himalayas. Through a comprehensive analysis of the climate–growth relationships, we identified distinct responses of shrub growth to drought events. We found that low moisture availability in spring is a critical constraint of juniper growth, being more pronounced in the drier western sites. A clear gradient in resilience was observed, with a higher resistance to drought and a lower recovery period in the wetter eastern sites. In addition, shrub growth resilience significantly decreased along the east–west (wet-to-dry) precipitation gradient. The analyses also revealed an association between aridity and resilience in response to drought. In conclusion, as drought events are expected to be more frequent with future warming, alpine juniper shrubs in drier sites of the central Himalayas likely face higher vulnerability. Such an aridification tendency may disrupt the functioning of alpine ecosystems and impair some of their services. This study emphasized the need for targeted conservation and management strategies to buffer the impacts of climate change on sensitive alpine shrubland ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"367 ","pages":"Article 110515"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143695578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Interannual climatic sensitivity of surface energy flux densities and evapotranspiration in a disturbed and rewetted ombrotrophic bog 扰动和复湿的营养化沼泽地表能量通量密度和蒸散的年际气候敏感性
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110501
J.L. Exler , J. Skeeter , A. Christen , R.D. Moore
{"title":"Interannual climatic sensitivity of surface energy flux densities and evapotranspiration in a disturbed and rewetted ombrotrophic bog","authors":"J.L. Exler ,&nbsp;J. Skeeter ,&nbsp;A. Christen ,&nbsp;R.D. Moore","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110501","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110501","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study quantified surface energy balance and evapotranspiration in a <em>Sphagnum</em>-dominated ombrotrophic bog located near their southern limit in western North America (49.13<span><math><msup><mrow></mrow><mo>∘</mo></msup></math></span> N, 122.98<span><math><msup><mrow></mrow><mo>∘</mo></msup></math></span> W) from summer 2014 through 2022 to assess the bog's sensitivity to future climatic conditions, particularly to increasing severity and duration of drought conditions. Precipitation exceeded evapotranspiration in winter, but net surface water exchange was negative for between four and six months in summer. Shifts in surface water exchange towards net gain occurred consistently between early September and late October; the timing of the shift towards net loss was less consistent in spring, ranging from mid-February to mid-May. Daily evapotranspiration was primarily driven by net radiation and vapour pressure deficit. Surface moisture availability, as represented by water table depth, was a secondary control. Evapotranspiration tended to decline with increasing water table depth, with a slight flattening of the relation below a depth of about 0.058 m. The initial, more rapid, rate of decline is hypothesized to reflect a decrease of surface ponding and the decreased effect at greater depths to be associated with continued supply of water to the peat surface by capillary transport. Albedo increased from about 0.10 to 0.14 over each growing season, but the negative feedback on available energy for evapotranspiration at the peat surface was minimal. Net radiation did not vary substantially among years, and maximum seasonal water table drawdown appeared to be most strongly associated with growing season vapour pressure deficit, and was not correlated with the duration of seasonal net water loss to the atmosphere. In a climate change context, this study suggests that the ecohydrological response of ombrotrophic bogs will be most sensitive to changes in summertime vapour pressure deficit, which is projected to increase in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"367 ","pages":"Article 110501"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143697643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multifactorial interactions contribute to contrasting wildfire trends at mid–high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere 多因子相互作用有助于对比北半球中高纬度地区的野火趋势
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110507
Hang Zhao , Zhengxiang Zhang , Shuo Zhen , Xin Wang , Yiwei Yin
{"title":"Multifactorial interactions contribute to contrasting wildfire trends at mid–high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Hang Zhao ,&nbsp;Zhengxiang Zhang ,&nbsp;Shuo Zhen ,&nbsp;Xin Wang ,&nbsp;Yiwei Yin","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110507","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110507","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The contrasting changes in wildfires reflect their diverse responses to bioclimates, vegetation dynamics, and human activities. However, how wildfire drivers interact to shape contrasting wildfire dynamics remains unclear. Here, wildfire dynamics at mid–high latitudes (≥30°N) were analyzed using a burned area dataset from 1982 to 2018. We integrated structural equation modeling with fire regime triangle theory to define flammability, fuel, and human ignition as latent variables, thus explaining the major causes of contrasting wildfire trends. Wildfires increased in 2.91 % of land areas and decreased in 8.30 % at mid–high latitudes, exhibiting contrasting trends within and across ecoregions, in which flammability, fuel, and human ignition had impacts on wildfires with ratios of 0.63, 0.56, and 0.50, respectively. Temperature-driven flammability variations led to increasing trends in wildfires in fuel-rich forests, while increasing flammability, combined with reduced fuels from water deficits, caused decreasing trends in wildfires, especially in arid temperate grasslands. Moreover, increased natural and human ignitions led to increasing trends in wildfires in high-latitude ecosystems, whereas intensified human activities suppressed wildfires in densely populated areas, leading to declining wildfire trends. These results suggest that flammability impacts wildfire trends oppositely depending on fuel conditions, and human ignition has polarized effects on wildfire trends due to varying intensity and direction of human activities. Such interactions contribute to contrasting wildfire trends and imply that warmer climates and human activities will exacerbate contrasting wildfire dynamics. Our study improves the understanding of long-term wildfire trends, aids in exploring terrestrial carbon cycles under climate change, and supports practical wildfire management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"367 ","pages":"Article 110507"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143677968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Shifts in soil freeze-thaw cycle and their climate impacts along the alpine wetland-grassland continuum 高寒湿地-草地连续体土壤冻融循环变化及其气候影响
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Pub Date : 2025-03-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110506
Jianbin Wang , Juanjuan Zhang , Dong Xie , Jiumei Ma , Yijie Zhao , Shijie Ning , Chao Song , Zhenhua Zhang , Jianxiao Zhu , Jin-Sheng He , Hao Wang
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