Environmetrics最新文献_第8页

Sampling design methods for making improved lake management decisions 改进湖泊管理决策的取样设计方法

IF 1.5 3区环境科学与生态学

Environmetrics Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.1002/env.2842

Vilja Koski, Jo Eidsvik

{"title":"Sampling design methods for making improved lake management decisions","authors":"Vilja Koski, Jo Eidsvik","doi":"10.1002/env.2842","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2842","url":null,"abstract":"The ecological status of lakes is important for understanding an ecosystem's biodiversity as well as for service water quality and policies related to land use and agricultural run-off. If the status is weak, then decisions about management alternatives need to be made. We assess the value of information of lake monitoring in Finland, where lakes are abundant. With reasonable ecological values and restoration costs, the value of information analysis can be compared with the survey's costs. Data are worth gathering if the expected value from the data exceeds the costs. From existing data, we specify a hierarchical Bayesian spatial logistic regression model for the ecological status of lakes. We then rely on functional approximations and Laplace approximations to get closed-form expressions for the value of information of a sampling design. The case study contains thousands of lakes. The combinatorially difficult design problem is to wisely pick the right subset of lakes for data gathering. To solve this optimization problem, we study the performance of various heuristics: greedy forward algorithms, exchange algorithms and Bayesian optimization approaches. The value of information increases quickly when adding lakes to a small design but then flattens out. Good designs are usually composed of lakes that are difficult to manage, while also balancing a variety of covariates and geographic coverage. The designs achieved by forward selection are reasonably good, but we can outperform them with the more nuanced search algorithms. Statistical designs clearly outperform other designs selected according to simpler criteria.","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2842","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139771804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Penalized distributed lag interaction model: Air pollution, birth weight, and neighborhood vulnerability 惩罚性分布滞后交互模型：空气污染、出生体重和邻里脆弱性

IF 1.7 3区环境科学与生态学

Environmetrics Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1002/env.2843

Danielle Demateis, Kayleigh P. Keller, David Rojas-Rueda, Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou, Ander Wilson

{"title":"Penalized distributed lag interaction model: Air pollution, birth weight, and neighborhood vulnerability","authors":"Danielle Demateis, Kayleigh P. Keller, David Rojas-Rueda, Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou, Ander Wilson","doi":"10.1002/env.2843","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2843","url":null,"abstract":"Maternal exposure to air pollution during pregnancy has a substantial public health impact. Epidemiological evidence supports an association between maternal exposure to air pollution and low birth weight. A popular method to estimate this association while identifying windows of susceptibility is a distributed lag model (DLM), which regresses an outcome onto exposure history observed at multiple time points. However, the standard DLM framework does not allow for modification of the association between repeated measures of exposure and the outcome. We propose a distributed lag interaction model that allows modification of the exposure-time-response associations across individuals by including an interaction between a continuous modifying variable and the exposure history. Our model framework is an extension of a standard DLM that uses a cross-basis, or bi-dimensional function space, to simultaneously describe both the modification of the exposure-response relationship and the temporal structure of the exposure data. Through simulations, we showed that our model with penalization out-performs a standard DLM when the true exposure-time-response associations vary by a continuous variable. Using a Colorado, USA birth cohort, we estimated the association between birth weight and ambient fine particulate matter air pollution modified by an area-level metric of health and social adversities from Colorado EnviroScreen.","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2843","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139662388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

2023 Editorial Collaborators 2023 编辑合作者

IF 1.7 3区环境科学与生态学

Environmetrics Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.1002/env.2841

引用次数: 0

Structural equation models for simultaneous modeling of air pollutants 空气污染物同步建模的结构方程模型

IF 1.7 3区环境科学与生态学

Environmetrics Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.1002/env.2837

Mariaelena Bottazzi Schenone, Elena Grimaccia, Maurizio Vichi

{"title":"Structural equation models for simultaneous modeling of air pollutants","authors":"Mariaelena Bottazzi Schenone, Elena Grimaccia, Maurizio Vichi","doi":"10.1002/env.2837","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2837","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a new modeling for air pollution, simultaneously taking into account the six main pollutants (PM10 and PM2.5, Sulphate Dioxide, Nitrogen Dioxide, Carbon Monoxide, ground level Ozone concentrations) and their key determinants, employing Structural Equation Models (SEMs). The model is able to estimate the complex links among air pollutants, often neglected in literature, and identifies specific drivers of air pollution. In literature, indexes of air pollution achieved using a fully statistical methodology have not been proposed yet. Indeed, an added value of this proposal is the statistical procedure itself, which can be applied also to obtain indexes modeling different phenomena. In particular, in this study, the new Air Pollution Index (API) is based on a modeling approach that allows to assess, through statistical criteria, the goodness of fit of the SEM in modeling pollutants and the significance of their determinants. The performance of the new index is assessed using air quality data for municipal European areas, which are characterized by different socioeconomic, geographical, and meteorological features. SEMs are estimated and evaluated in terms of best fit and model complexity. The index resulting by the best SEM is compared with the well-established Air Quality Index (AQI). The new API is validated by means of a sensitivity analysis, performed with a simulation study. Finally, to visualize the meaningfulness of the obtained results, a model-based cluster analysis is estimated on the municipal areas. The proposed SEM contributes to a better understanding of the relationships between air pollutants and their determinants, and this knowledge can inform policy decisions aimed at reducing air pollution and improving public health.","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139482958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Quantifying and correcting geolocation error in spaceborne LiDAR forest canopy observations using high spatial accuracy data: A Bayesian model approach 利用高空间精度数据量化和纠正空间LiDAR林冠观测中的地理定位误差：贝叶斯模型方法

IF 1.7 3区环境科学与生态学

Environmetrics Pub Date : 2024-01-08 DOI: 10.1002/env.2840

Elliot S. Shannon, Andrew O. Finley, Daniel J. Hayes, Sylvia N. Noralez, Aaron R. Weiskittel, Bruce D. Cook, Chad Babcock

{"title":"Quantifying and correcting geolocation error in spaceborne LiDAR forest canopy observations using high spatial accuracy data: A Bayesian model approach","authors":"Elliot S. Shannon, Andrew O. Finley, Daniel J. Hayes, Sylvia N. Noralez, Aaron R. Weiskittel, Bruce D. Cook, Chad Babcock","doi":"10.1002/env.2840","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2840","url":null,"abstract":"Geolocation error in spaceborne sampling light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements of forest structure can compromise forest attribute estimates and degrade integration with georeferenced field measurements or other remotely sensed data. Data integration is especially problematic when geolocation error is not well quantified. We propose a general model that uses airborne laser scanning data to quantify and correct geolocation error in spaceborne sampling LiDAR. To illustrate the model, LiDAR data from NASA Goddard's LiDAR Hyperspectral and Thermal Imager (G-LiHT) was used with a subset of LiDAR data from NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI). The model accommodates multiple canopy height metrics derived from a simulated GEDI footprint kernel using spatially coincident G-LiHT, and incorporates both additive and multiplicative mapping between the canopy height metrics generated from both datasets. A Bayesian implementation provides probabilistic uncertainty quantification in both parameter and geolocation error estimates. Results show a systematic geolocation error of 9.62 m in the southwest direction. In addition, estimated geolocation errors within GEDI footprints were highly variable, with results showing a <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ sim $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>0.45 probability the true footprint center is within 20 m. Estimating and correcting geolocation error via the model outlined here can help inform subsequent efforts to integrate spaceborne LiDAR data, like GEDI, with other georeferenced data.","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2840","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139409501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multivariate nearest-neighbors Gaussian processes with random covariance matrices 具有随机协方差矩阵的多变量近邻高斯过程

IF 1.7 3区环境科学与生态学

Environmetrics Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1002/env.2839

Isabelle Grenier, Bruno Sansó, Jessica L. Matthews

引用次数: 0

Statistical evaluation of a long-memory process using the generalized entropic value-at-risk 利用广义熵风险值对长记忆过程进行统计评估

IF 1.7 3区环境科学与生态学

Environmetrics Pub Date : 2023-12-25 DOI: 10.1002/env.2838

Hidekazu Yoshioka, Yumi Yoshioka

{"title":"Statistical evaluation of a long-memory process using the generalized entropic value-at-risk","authors":"Hidekazu Yoshioka, Yumi Yoshioka","doi":"10.1002/env.2838","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2838","url":null,"abstract":"The modeling and identification of time series data with a long memory are important in various fields. The streamflow discharge is one such example that can be reasonably described as an aggregated stochastic process of randomized affine processes where the probability measure, we call it reversion measure, for the randomization is not directly observable. Accurate identification of the reversion measure is critical because of its omnipresence in the aggregated stochastic process. However, the modeling accuracy is commonly limited by the available real-world data. We resolve this issue by proposing the novel upper and lower bounds of a statistic of interest subject to ambiguity of the reversion measure. Here, we use the Tsallis value-at-risk (TsVaR) as a convex risk functional to generalize the widely used entropic value-at-risk (EVaR) as a sharp statistical indicator. We demonstrate that the EVaR cannot be used for evaluating key statistics, such as mean and variance, of the streamflow discharge due to the blowup of some exponential integrand. We theoretically show that the TsVaR can avoid this issue because it requires only the existence of some polynomial moment, not exponential moment. As a demonstration, we apply the semi-implicit gradient descent method to calculate the TsVaR and corresponding Radon–Nikodym derivative for time series data of actual streamflow discharges in mountainous river environments.","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139056396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

New generalized extreme value distribution with applications to extreme temperature data 应用于极端温度数据的新广义极值分布

IF 1.7 3区环境科学与生态学

Environmetrics Pub Date : 2023-12-14 DOI: 10.1002/env.2836

Wilson Gyasi, Kahadawala Cooray

{"title":"New generalized extreme value distribution with applications to extreme temperature data","authors":"Wilson Gyasi, Kahadawala Cooray","doi":"10.1002/env.2836","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2836","url":null,"abstract":"A new generalization of the extreme value distribution is presented with its density function, having a wide variety of density and tail shapes for modeling extreme value data. This generalized extreme value distribution will be referred to as the odd generalized extreme value distribution. It is derived by considering the distributions of the odds of the generalized extreme value distribution. Consequently, the new distribution is enlightened by not only having all six families of extreme value distributions; Gumbel, Fréchet, Weibull, reverse-Gumbel, reverse-Fréchet, and reverse-Weibull as submodels but also convenient for modeling bimodal extreme value data that are frequently found in environmental sciences. Basic properties of the distribution, including tail behavior and tail heaviness, are studied. Also, quantile-based aliases of the new distribution are illustrated using Galton's skewness and Moor's kurtosis plane. The adequacy of the new distribution is illustrated using well-known goodness-of-fit measures. A simulation is performed to validate the estimated risk measures due to repeated data points frequently found in temperature data. The Grand Rapids and well-known Wooster temperature data sets are analyzed and compared to nine different extreme value distributions to illustrate the new distribution's bimodality, flexibility, and overall fitness.","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138628052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Total least squares bias in climate fingerprinting regressions with heterogeneous noise variances and correlated explanatory variables 具有异质噪声方差和相关解释变量的气候指纹回归中的总最小二乘法偏差

IF 1.7 3区环境科学与生态学

Environmetrics Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1002/env.2835

Ross McKitrick

{"title":"Total least squares bias in climate fingerprinting regressions with heterogeneous noise variances and correlated explanatory variables","authors":"Ross McKitrick","doi":"10.1002/env.2835","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2835","url":null,"abstract":"Regression-based “fingerprinting” methods in climate science employ total least squares (TLS) or orthogonal regression to remedy attenuation bias arising from measurement error due to reliance on climate model-generated explanatory variables. Proving the consistency of multivariate TLS requires assuming noise variances are equal across all variables in the model. This assumption has been challenged empirically in the climate context but little is known about TLS biases when the assumption is violated. Monte Carlo analysis is used herein to examine coefficient biases when the noise variances are not equal. The analysis allows the explanatory variables to be negatively correlated which is typical in climate applications. Ordinary least squares (OLS) exhibits the expected attenuation bias which vanishes as the noise variances on the explanatory variables disappear. In some cases, TLS corrects attenuation bias but more typically imparts large and generally positive biases. OLS performs well when the true value of <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>β</mi>\u0000 <mo>=</mo>\u0000 <mn>0</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ beta =0 $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> whereas TLS performs quite poorly. This implies that TLS is not well suited for tests of the null. When <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>β</mi>\u0000 <mo>=</mo>\u0000 <mn>1</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ beta =1 $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> TLS tends to exhibit opposite biases to OLS. Diagnostic information specific to each data sample should be consulted before using TLS to avoid spurious inferences and replacing OLS attenuation bias with other, potentially larger biases.","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2835","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138631025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Temporal evolution of the extreme excursions of multivariate k $$ k $$ th order Markov processes with application to oceanographic data 多元k $$ k $$阶马尔可夫过程极值漂移的时间演化及其在海洋资料中的应用

IF 1.7 3区环境科学与生态学

Environmetrics Pub Date : 2023-12-03 DOI: 10.1002/env.2834

Stan Tendijck, Philip Jonathan, David Randell, Jonathan Tawn

{"title":"Temporal evolution of the extreme excursions of multivariate \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 k\u0000 \u0000 $$ k $$\u0000 th order Markov processes with application to oceanographic data","authors":"Stan Tendijck, Philip Jonathan, David Randell, Jonathan Tawn","doi":"10.1002/env.2834","DOIUrl":"10.1002/env.2834","url":null,"abstract":"We develop two models for the temporal evolution of extreme events of multivariate <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>k</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ k $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>th order Markov processes. The foundation of our methodology lies in the conditional extremes model of Heffernan and Tawn (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodology), 2014, 66, 497–546), and it naturally extends the work of Winter and Tawn (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 2016, 65, 345–365; Extremes, 2017, 20, 393–415) and Tendijck et al. (Environmetrics 2019, 30, e2541) to include multivariate random variables. We use cross-validation-type techniques to develop a model order selection procedure, and we test our models on two-dimensional meteorological-oceanographic data with directional covariates for a location in the northern North Sea. We conclude that the newly-developed models perform better than the widely used historical matching methodology for these data.","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"35 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.2834","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138539060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0