Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society最新文献_第5页

Improving supercooled liquid water representation in the microphysical scheme ICE3 改进微观物理方案 ICE3 中的过冷液态水表示法

IF 8.9 3区地球科学

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4806

Rémi Dupont, Claire Taymans, Benoît Vié

{"title":"Improving supercooled liquid water representation in the microphysical scheme ICE3","authors":"Rémi Dupont, Claire Taymans, Benoît Vié","doi":"10.1002/qj.4806","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4806","url":null,"abstract":"Most numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have a significant bias in predicting supercooled liquid water (SLW). For this reason, icing risk diagnostic tools do not use supercooled liquid water forecast by the models as an input parameter, but rather temperature and humidity, which are forecast better than SLW. The main objective of this study is to improve the SLW representation in the microphysical scheme ICE3 (Three Ice categories) used in the operational Applications de la Recherche à l'Opérationnel à Méso‐Echelle (AROME) model. For this purpose, several parametrizations of the microphysical processes were evaluated to find a better representation of SLW in the Mesoscale Non‐Hydrostatic model (MESO‐NH), which also uses ICE3. Elements of the microphysical scheme of the HARMONIE‐AROME model and work carried out by the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) have been tested and compared with the current scheme. After a preliminary study, three parametrizations of the microphysical scheme were selected, in which the processes of ice initiation, snow and graupel collection of cloud droplets, condensation, Bergeron–Findeisen, and saturation adjustment were modified. Then, MESO‐NH simulations were performed and compared with observations from the In‐Cloud ICing and Large‐drop Experiment (ICICLE) airborne campaign. Three case studies were used with different icing weather conditions such as freezing rain, freezing drizzle, lake effect, etc. The results show a better representation of SLW with a greater presence of cloud droplets for colder temperatures up to 30 C. However, the liquid water content remains underestimated and the ice mass is overestimated. The ice initiation and cloud droplet collection by snow and graupel play a major role in the SLW representation. Parametrizations with restrictive ice initiation criteria reduce cloud droplet consumption and provide better agreement with observations. The results are promising and need to be investigated further with more cases and in the operational model AROME.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141742470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Summer Heatwaves in Southeastern Australia 澳大利亚东南部的夏季热浪

IF 8.9 3区地球科学

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4816

Cameron R. Henderson, Michael J. Reeder, Teresa J. Parker, Julian F. Quinting, Christian Jakob

{"title":"Summer Heatwaves in Southeastern Australia","authors":"Cameron R. Henderson, Michael J. Reeder, Teresa J. Parker, Julian F. Quinting, Christian Jakob","doi":"10.1002/qj.4816","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4816","url":null,"abstract":"Heatwaves in southeastern Australia have characteristic weather patterns that are well understood but are outnumbered by days with similar synoptic‐scale patterns that are not heatwaves. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to identify the key differences between heatwave and non‐heatwave days from 40 years of reanalysis data. A synoptic climatology of seven weather states was constructed by ‐means cluster analysis. Four of these states account for more than 80% of heatwave days across south‐and‐central eastern Australia. Moreover, the spatial maxima in the frequency of the heatwave days are distinct and geographically separated. Heatwave days have a stronger upper anticyclone or ridge that has propagated further equatorward in comparison with non‐heatwave days. The air upstream of the ridge is more humid on heatwave days, whereas downstream of the ridge the air is much drier. These dry anomalies are co‐located with midtropospheric subsidence and the moist anomalies with ascent, and their respective spatial distributions are consistent with regions of adiabatic warming and latent heating identified in recent studies of southeast Australian heatwaves. The corresponding vertical motion on non‐heatwave days is weaker and shifted further poleward. Southeast Queensland heatwave days exhibit increased baroclinicity over the Australian Subtropics and reduced rainfall over Queensland. Further south and west, heatwave days are associated with more amplified Rossby waves and increased rainfall over the Australian Tropics. Anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking is greatly enhanced on heatwave days south of 30°S. For every day in each of these four weather states, the 3‐day‐mean maximum temperature in the region of peak heatwave day frequency is positively correlated with 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies on the equatorward flank of the cluster‐mean upper ridge. These findings underline the importance of equatorward Rossby wave propagation in the dynamics of southeast Australian heatwaves.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141742325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Two‐way feedback between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and diurnal warm layers in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model 海洋-大气耦合模式中的马登-朱利安涛动与日暖层间的双向反馈

IF 8.9 3区地球科学

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4807

Eliza Karlowska, Adrian J. Matthews, Benjamin G. M. Webber, Tim Graham, Prince Xavier

{"title":"Two‐way feedback between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and diurnal warm layers in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model","authors":"Eliza Karlowska, Adrian J. Matthews, Benjamin G. M. Webber, Tim Graham, Prince Xavier","doi":"10.1002/qj.4807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4807","url":null,"abstract":"Diurnal warm layers develop in the upper ocean on sunny days with low surface wind speeds. They rectify intraseasonal sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs), potentially impacting intraseasonal weather patterns such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Here we analyse 15‐lead‐day forecast composites of coupled ocean–atmosphere and atmosphere‐only numerical weather prediction (NWP) models of the UK Met Office to reveal that the presence of diurnal warming of SST (dSST) leads to a faster MJO propagation in the coupled model compared with the atmosphere‐only model. To test the feedback between the MJO and the dSST, we designed a set of experiments with instantaneous vertical mixing over the top 5 or of the ocean component of the coupled model. Weaker dSST in the mixing experiments leads to a slower MJO over 15 lead days. The dSST produces a increase in the MJO phase speed between the coupled and the atmosphere‐only model. An additional increase is found for other coupling effects, unrelated to the dSST. A two‐way feedback manifests in the coupled model over the 15 lead days of the forecast between the MJO and the dSST. The MJO regime dictates the strength of the dSST and the dSST rectifies the intraseasonal anomalies of SST in the coupled model. Stronger dSST in the coupled model leads to stronger intraseasonal anomalies of SST. The MJO convection responds to these SSTs on a seven‐lead‐day timescale, and feeds back into the SST anomalies within the next three lead days. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of high vertical resolution in the upper ocean for predicting the eastward propagation of the MJO in an NWP setting, which is potentially impactful for seasonal predictions and climate projections, should this feedback be unrepresented in the models.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141742324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Importance of CCN activation for fog forecasting and its representation in the two‐moment microphysical scheme LIMA CCN 激活对大雾预报的重要性及其在双瞬微观物理方案 LIMA 中的表现形式

IF 8.9 3区地球科学

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4812

B. Vié, L. Ducongé, C. Lac, T. Bergot, J. Price

{"title":"Importance of CCN activation for fog forecasting and its representation in the two‐moment microphysical scheme LIMA","authors":"B. Vié, L. Ducongé, C. Lac, T. Bergot, J. Price","doi":"10.1002/qj.4812","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4812","url":null,"abstract":"The work presented in this article studies the impact of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation for fog forecasting and improves its parameterization in the LIMA (Liquid, Ice, Multiple Aerosols) two‐moment microphysical scheme, building upon the Local And Non‐local Fog EXperiment (LANFEX) field campaign observations, specifically the intensive observation period (IOP) 1 and the DEMISTIFY intercomparison. Large‐eddy simulations were performed with the Meso‐NH model, first using a prognostic supersaturation allowing us to compute the number of activated CCN at each time step, and then with the usual saturation adjustment hypothesis and a diagnostic maximum supersaturation. The prognostic supersaturation method provided very good results, similar to those from earlier simulations of this case using a bin scheme, and was thus used as a reference. In contrast, the diagnostic maximum supersaturation method strongly overestimated droplet numbers and produced a too‐thick fog. Thus, improvements to the maximum supersaturation diagnostic were proposed, by (1) revising the temperature tendency and (2) accounting for pre‐existing cloud droplets in the activation parameterization. These improvements resulted in a simulation in good agreement with observations and the reference simulation, and are promising for use in numerical weather prediction systems with a lower resolution and/or a longer time step.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141746104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A mixed finite‐element, finite‐volume, semi‐implicit discretisation for atmospheric dynamics: Spherical geometry 大气动力学的有限元、有限体积、半隐式混合离散法：球形几何

IF 8.9 3区地球科学

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4814

Thomas Melvin, Ben Shipway, Nigel Wood, Tommaso Benacchio, Thomas Bendall, Ian Boutle, Alex Brown, Christine Johnson, James Kent, Stephen Pring, Chris Smith, Mohamed Zerroukat, Colin Cotter, John Thuburn

引用次数: 0

The impact of mesh size, turbulence parameterization, and land‐surface‐exchange scheme on simulations of the mountain boundary layer in the hectometric range 网格大小、湍流参数化和地表交换方案对百米山脉山地边界层模拟的影响

IF 8.9 3区地球科学

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4799

Brigitta Goger, Anurag Dipankar

{"title":"The impact of mesh size, turbulence parameterization, and land‐surface‐exchange scheme on simulations of the mountain boundary layer in the hectometric range","authors":"Brigitta Goger, Anurag Dipankar","doi":"10.1002/qj.4799","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4799","url":null,"abstract":"The horizontal grid spacing of numerical weather prediction models keeps decreasing towards the hectometric range. We perform limited‐area simulations with the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model across horizontal grid spacings (1 km, 500 m, 250 m, 125 m) in the Inn Valley, Austria, and evaluate the model with observations from the Cross‐Valley Flow in the Inn Valley Investigated by Dual‐Doppler LIDAR Measurements (CROSSINN) measurement campaign. This allows us to investigate whether increasing the horizontal resolution automatically improves the representation of the flow structure, surface exchange, and common meteorological variables. Increasing the horizontal resolution results in an improved simulation of the thermally induced circulation. However, the model still faces challenges with scale interactions and the evening transition of the up‐valley flow. Differences between two turbulence schemes (1D turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) and 3D Smagorinsky) emerge due to their different surface transfer formulations, yielding a delayed evening transition in the 3D Smagorinsky scheme. Generally speaking, the correct simulation of the mountain boundary layer depends mostly on the representation of model topography and surface exchange, and the choice of turbulence parameterization is secondary.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141720437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Towards unified land data assimilation at ECMWF: Soil and snow temperature analysis in the SEKF 在 ECMWF 实现统一的陆地数据同化：SEKF 中的土壤和积雪温度分析

IF 3 3区地球科学

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4808

Christoph Herbert, Patricia de Rosnay, Peter Weston, D. Fairbairn

{"title":"Towards unified land data assimilation at ECMWF: Soil and snow temperature analysis in the SEKF","authors":"Christoph Herbert, Patricia de Rosnay, Peter Weston, D. Fairbairn","doi":"10.1002/qj.4808","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4808","url":null,"abstract":"Weather centres use a variety of data assimilation schemes to analyze different land variables in their operational forecast systems. Current activities at the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are working towards a unified and more consistent land data assimilation system to provide more accurate initial conditions for the atmospheric forecasts. The first step is to replace the current 1D optimal interpolation (1D‐OI) used for first‐layer soil and snow temperature analyses, and integrate multi‐layer soil and first‐layer snow temperature into the ensemble‐based simplified extended Kalman filter (SEKF) currently used for multi‐layer soil moisture. This work focuses on the technical developments and the evaluation of the atmospheric forecast skill of a series of numerical weather prediction experiments to compare different SEKF configurations with the former 1D‐OI over a three‐month summer and winter period. Using the SEKF leads to seasonally varying significant improvements in the 2‐m temperature forecast in the verification against own analyses and to slightly improved results in the validation using independent synoptic observations. This work lays the foundation for integrating additional land variables into the SEKF and investigating stronger land–atmosphere coupling.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141645994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Met Office Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) using a 1/12‐degree grid for global forecasts 气象局预测海洋同化模型（FOAM）使用 1/12 度网格进行全球预测

IF 3 3区地球科学

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4798

Ana Barbosa Aguiar, Michael J. Bell, E. Blockley, D. Calvert, Richard Crocker, G. Inverarity, Robert R. King, D. Lea, Jan Maksymczuk, Matthew J. Martin, Martin R. Price, J. Siddorn, Kerry Smout-Day, Jennifer Waters, J. While

{"title":"The Met Office Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) using a 1/12‐degree grid for global forecasts","authors":"Ana Barbosa Aguiar, Michael J. Bell, E. Blockley, D. Calvert, Richard Crocker, G. Inverarity, Robert R. King, D. Lea, Jan Maksymczuk, Matthew J. Martin, Martin R. Price, J. Siddorn, Kerry Smout-Day, Jennifer Waters, J. While","doi":"10.1002/qj.4798","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4798","url":null,"abstract":"The Met Office Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) ocean–sea‐ice analysis and forecasting operational system has been using an ORCA tripolar grid with 1/4° horizontal grid spacing since December 2008. Surface boundary forcing is provided by numerical weather prediction fields from the operational global atmosphere Met Office Unified Model. We present results from a 2‐year simulation using a 1/12° global ocean–sea‐ice model configuration while keeping a 1/4° data assimilation (DA) set‐up. We also describe recent operational data assimilation enhancements that are included in our 1/4° control and 1/12° simulations: a new bias‐correction term for sea‐level anomaly assimilation and a revised pressure correction algorithm. The primary effect of the first is to decrease the mean and variability of sea‐level anomaly increments at high latitudes, whereas the second significantly reduces the vertical velocity standard deviation in the tropical Pacific. The level of improvement achieved with the higher resolution configuration is moderate but consistently satisfactory when measured using neighbourhood verification metrics that provide fairer quantitative comparisons between gridded model fields at different spatial resolutions than traditional root‐mean‐square metrics. A comparison of the eddy kinetic energy from each configuration and an observation‐based product highlights the regions where further system developments are most needed.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141649562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non‐uniform warming 改进全球气温数据集，更好地考虑非均匀变暖问题

IF 8.9 3区地球科学

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4791

Bruce T. T. Calvert

{"title":"Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non‐uniform warming","authors":"Bruce T. T. Calvert","doi":"10.1002/qj.4791","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4791","url":null,"abstract":"To estimate changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST), one must infer past temperatures for regions of the planet that lacked observations. While current global instrumental temperature datasets (GITDs) estimate different rates of warming for different regions of the planet, this non‐uniform warming is often modelled as residuals relative to underlying trends of spatially uniform warming. To better account for spatial non‐uniform trends in warming, a new GITD was created that used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to combine the land surface air temperature (LSAT) anomalies of non‐infilled HadCRUT5 with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of HadSST4. This GITD better accounts for non‐uniform trends in warming in two ways. Firstly, the underlying warming trends in the model are allowed to vary spatially and by the time of year. Secondly, climatological differences between open‐sea and sea ice regions are used to better account for changes in sea ice concentrations (SICs). These improvements increase the estimate of GMST change from the late 19th century (1850–1900) to 2023 by 0.006°C and 0.079°C, respectively. Although, for the latter improvement, tests suggest that there may be an overcorrection by a factor of two and estimates of SICs for the late 19th century are a significant source of unquantified uncertainty. In addition, this new GITD has other improvements compared to the HadCRUT5 Analysis dataset, including correcting for a small underestimation of LSAT warming between 1961 and 1990, taking advantage of temporal correlations of observations, taking advantage of correlations between land and open‐sea observations, and better treatment of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Overall, the median estimate of GMST change from the late 19th century to 2023 is 1.548°C, with a 95% confidence interval of [1.449°C, 1.635°C].","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141613311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Precursors of summer heat waves in the Eastern Mediterranean 东地中海夏季热浪的前兆

IF 8.9 3区地球科学

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4795

Chaim I. Garfinkel, Dorita Rostkier‐Edelstein, Efrat Morin, Assaf Hochman, Chen Schwartz, Ronit Nirel

{"title":"Precursors of summer heat waves in the Eastern Mediterranean","authors":"Chaim I. Garfinkel, Dorita Rostkier‐Edelstein, Efrat Morin, Assaf Hochman, Chen Schwartz, Ronit Nirel","doi":"10.1002/qj.4795","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4795","url":null,"abstract":"Reanalysis and observational data are used to identify the precursors of summertime heat waves over the Eastern Mediterranean. After compiling a list of heat waves using objective criteria, we identify robust precursors present 7–10 days before the onset of the heat wave, longer than the typical horizon for trustworthy weather forecasts. If these precursors are present, there is a significant warming over the Eastern Mediterranean over the following 10 days that persists for weeks after. These precursors include a weakened Indian monsoon, a strengthened Sahelian monsoon, warm Western/Central Mediterranean sea‐surface temperatures, and a midlatitude low‐pressure system from the west. Further, horizontal temperature advection is the proximate cause of the heat wave in the days before the extreme; in particular, a weakening of the Etesian winds that would otherwise advect relatively cool maritime air inland accounts for around half of the warming. There has been a clear tendency for more heat extremes in recent years. These results have implications for forecasting anomalous summer temperatures in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the framework developed here can also be applied in other regions.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141613252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0