Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Implementation and tests of the NLT3D scheme in the ICON model 在 ICON 模型中实施和测试 NLT3D 方案
IF 8.9 3区 地球科学
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4789
V. Kuell, A. Bott
{"title":"Implementation and tests of the NLT3D scheme in the ICON model","authors":"V. Kuell, A. Bott","doi":"10.1002/qj.4789","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4789","url":null,"abstract":"The main goal of this article is to test the long‐term performance of the three‐dimensional non‐local turbulence (NLT) parameterization scheme at different grid sizes in the so‐called gray zone between classical mesoscale modeling ( several km) and large eddy simulations (LES: several 100 m). For this, NLT has been implemented in the numerical weather prediction Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic model (ICON) of Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). Results are compared with a one‐dimensional version of NLT (NLT) and with two operational turbulence schemes available in ICON. Comparisons with observations from radiosondes, the operational surface synoptic (SYNOP) station network, and RAdar‐OnLine‐ANeichung (RADOLAN) radar data of DWD indicate that all turbulence schemes investigated perform reasonably well. Nonetheless, a more detailed study of the model results reveals several interesting differences between the turbulence parameterizations to be discussed in detail. Median absolute errors (MAE) from point‐to‐point comparisons between numerical results and SYNOP observations tend to be smaller than those from comparisons with averaging simulated fields over an environment around each station location. This behavior indicates an information loss caused by the averaging process. For the 2‐m temperature () and the hourly precipitation sums (), MAEs decrease with decreasing grid sizes, thus suggesting an information gain for finer grids. The nighttime MAEs of and obtained with NLT and NLT are similar to or lower than those of the operational turbulence schemes of ICON. Moreover, during a shallow warm‐air intrusion, NLT and especially NLT yield a more realistic representation of the horizontal structures of and, during nighttime stable boundary‐layer situations, also . Radiosonde profiles of the potential temperature confirm a reasonable vertical mixing as obtained with NLT and NLT.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141588133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investigating the medium‐range predictability of European heatwave onsets in relation to weather regimes using ensemble reforecasts 利用集合再预测调查欧洲热浪来临的中期可预测性与天气状况的关系
IF 8.9 3区 地球科学
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4801
Alexander Lemburg, Andreas H. Fink
{"title":"Investigating the medium‐range predictability of European heatwave onsets in relation to weather regimes using ensemble reforecasts","authors":"Alexander Lemburg, Andreas H. Fink","doi":"10.1002/qj.4801","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4801","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, the medium‐range predictability of heatwave (HW) onsets in four midlatitude European regions is investigated statistically with the help of ensemble reforecasts for the period 2001–2018. The concept of Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes is adopted to characterise HWs (about 50 in each region) and to study whether forecast skill may depend on the large‐scale dynamical setup. HW onsets over the British Isles and Scandinavia are mainly associated with Scandinavian and European blocking regimes, whereas the “no regime” case is observed more frequently for Central Europe. Stratified by weather regime, the predictability of heatwave onsets is then studied by means of a multiple metric‐based analysis of European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Ensemble Forecast System Version 12 (GEFSv12) ensemble reforecasts. For two of the regions considered, Central Europe and the British Isles, a conclusive picture is obtained: medium‐range predictive skill is significantly higher for HW onsets associated with Scandinavian or European blocking compared with cases with no pronounced regime. This skill advantage mostly concerns the large‐scale flow and, to some extent, 850‐hPa temperatures, but is generally not reflected in the correct prediction of near‐surface temperatures. Finally, we investigate for two regions how exceptionally good or poor forecasts are related to the atmospheric state during or shortly after forecast initialisation. At 10 days lead time, poor large‐scale flow predictive skill for Central European HW onsets is linked to anomalously high baroclinicity further upstream and an intensified North Atlantic jet stream, whereas good forecasts on average feature an initial state close to climatology. Forecast skill for near‐surface temperatures is not affected by such dynamical precursors, but rather by pre‐existing soil‐moisture anomalies. For the British region, exceptionally good forecasts of both large‐scale flow and near‐surface temperatures are associated with an already established continental blocking. In contrast to Central Europe, pre‐existing soil‐moisture anomalies play less of a role there.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141588135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating synthetic aperture radar surface winds for convective squalls in the Gulf of Mexico 评估墨西哥湾对流暴风的合成孔径雷达表面风速
IF 8.9 3区 地球科学
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4810
Tran Vu La, Christophe Messager
{"title":"Evaluating synthetic aperture radar surface winds for convective squalls in the Gulf of Mexico","authors":"Tran Vu La, Christophe Messager","doi":"10.1002/qj.4810","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4810","url":null,"abstract":"The detection and quantification of strong sea surface winds, reaching up to 25 m·s<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>, whether associated with deep convection aloft or not, have been extensively discussed in previous studies. This method involves the combined observation of the same event from both low‐orbit altitude and geostationary (GEO) satellites. Strong surface winds observed by the Sentinel‐1 C‐band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) are robustly associated with deep convective clouds detected by GEO infrared sensors. The current paper aims to generalize the previous assessment of several convective wind events by collecting a larger dataset and comparing these data to in‐situ wind observations. To achieve this, we evaluated wind speeds retrieved from Sentinel‐1 SAR images against corresponding in‐situ wind measurements from all active buoys/stations in the Gulf of Mexico. Significant agreement between satellite‐based winds and in‐situ data was achieved, particularly for wind speeds exceeding 3 m·s<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>, with even better agreement for wind speeds over 10 m·s<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>. From this dataset, three specific convective cases were extracted to illustrate various stages of convective squall events: before, during, and after the occurrence of a squall peak. In each case, comparison with in‐situ measurements showed that SAR‐estimated wind speeds closely matched observed speeds, including the peak convective winds, which were estimated at 18.90 m·s<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> and measured at 20.69 m·s<jats:sup>−1</jats:sup>. Furthermore, combining these findings with GOES‐16 sequential images illustrates the temporal and spatial similarity between deep convection areas, estimated strong sea surface wind patterns, and measured wind speeds.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141569351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A new global daily sea‐surface temperature analysis system at Environment and Climate Change Canada 加拿大环境与气候变化部新的全球每日海面温度分析系统
IF 8.9 3区 地球科学
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4796
Sergey Skachko, Mark Buehner, Alain Caya, Yves Franklin Ngueto, Dorina Surcel‐Colan
{"title":"A new global daily sea‐surface temperature analysis system at Environment and Climate Change Canada","authors":"Sergey Skachko, Mark Buehner, Alain Caya, Yves Franklin Ngueto, Dorina Surcel‐Colan","doi":"10.1002/qj.4796","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4796","url":null,"abstract":"A new global daily sea‐surface temperature (SST) analysis system has been developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). All components of the new SST analysis system are implemented within the Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System (MIDAS) software. MIDAS is already used for the data assimilation component of the main operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems at ECCC. The new SST analysis system, integrated together with the global sea‐ice analysis, will be part of the combined ocean surface analysis used for all operational prediction systems at ECCC. The data assimilation method used to compute the new SST analyses is two‐dimensional variational method with a diffusion operator for representing the horizontal background‐error correlations. A new algorithm for satellite data bias estimation has also been developed employing gridded bias estimates computed from a spatial averaging of the differences between collocated satellite and in‐situ data. New algorithms for quality control and thinning of satellite data have also been implemented, making each type of observational dataset more evenly distributed over the globe. The performance of the new SST system is examined relative to the current operational SST system by using independent data. The impact of using the new SST analysis within NWP and ocean prediction systems is also evaluated. When compared with the operational system currently in use, the experiments employing the new SST analysis system produce a nearly neutral impact on the NWP and ocean prediction systems. This validation of the new system is an important first step towards the ability to use MIDAS to perform ensemble‐based three‐dimensional ocean and coupled ocean‐ice–atmosphere data assimilation.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141569253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The performance of a variable‐resolution 300‐m ensemble for forecasting convection over London 可变分辨率 300 米集合预报伦敦上空对流的性能
IF 8.9 3区 地球科学
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4794
Kirsty Hanley, Humphrey Lean
{"title":"The performance of a variable‐resolution 300‐m ensemble for forecasting convection over London","authors":"Kirsty Hanley, Humphrey Lean","doi":"10.1002/qj.4794","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4794","url":null,"abstract":"When using sub‐km models to forecast convection, it is important to have a large enough domain to allow convection to fully spin‐up from the lateral boundaries. However, running large domains is computationally expensive and while it may be feasible for research purposes it is not yet feasible for routinely run models, such as the Met Office 300‐m London model. To try and mitigate the spin‐up issues in the London model, a variable‐resolution 300‐m London Model (the ‘LMV’) has been developed, which allows the boundaries of the London model to be further away from areas of interest (e.g., London Heathrow) at lower computational cost. Results from several cases of summertime convection show that the convective storms in the variable‐resolution model are more like those in a large fixed‐resolution 300‐m model than those in the much smaller London model. This implies variable resolution is a viable option for increasing the size of the London model domain without increasing the computational costs too much. Extended evaluation of the LMV was conducted during summer 2022, running as an ensemble nested inside the Met Office's operational UK ensemble (MOGREPS‐UK). Overall, the LMV looks promising for high‐impact convective events as it is better able to represent the organisation of convection into lines or larger storms whereas MOGREPS‐UK tends to simulate isolated, circular storms. This often leads to more reliable probabilities of heavy rainfall in the LMV ensemble compared to MOGREPS‐UK. However, there is an issue with the LMV producing too many small precipitating showers in situations where there should only be shallow clouds. This is thought to be a result of shallow clouds getting too deep in the model and precipitating erroneously.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141569354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparison between non‐orographic gravity‐wave parameterizations used in QBOi models and Strateole 2 constant‐level balloons QBOi 模型和 Strateole 2 恒定水平气球中使用的非地形重力波参数比较
IF 8.9 3区 地球科学
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4793
F. Lott, R. Rani, C. McLandress, A. Podglajen, A. Bushell, M. Bramberger, H.‐K. Lee, J. Alexander, J. Anstey, H.‐Y. Chun, A. Hertzog, N. Butchart, Y.‐H. Kim, Y. Kawatani, B. Legras, E. Manzini, H. Naoe, S. Osprey, R. Plougonven, H. Pohlmann, J. H. Richter, J. Scinocca, J. García‐Serrano, F. Serva, T. Stockdale, S. Versick, S. Watanabe, K. Yoshida
{"title":"Comparison between non‐orographic gravity‐wave parameterizations used in QBOi models and Strateole 2 constant‐level balloons","authors":"F. Lott, R. Rani, C. McLandress, A. Podglajen, A. Bushell, M. Bramberger, H.‐K. Lee, J. Alexander, J. Anstey, H.‐Y. Chun, A. Hertzog, N. Butchart, Y.‐H. Kim, Y. Kawatani, B. Legras, E. Manzini, H. Naoe, S. Osprey, R. Plougonven, H. Pohlmann, J. H. Richter, J. Scinocca, J. García‐Serrano, F. Serva, T. Stockdale, S. Versick, S. Watanabe, K. Yoshida","doi":"10.1002/qj.4793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4793","url":null,"abstract":"Gravity‐wave (GW) parameterizations from 12 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) are compared with Strateole 2 balloon observations made in the tropical lower stratosphere from November 2019–February 2020 (phase 1) and from October 2021–January 2022 (phase 2). The parameterizations employ the three standard techniques used in GCMs to represent subgrid‐scale non‐orographic GWs, namely the two globally spectral techniques developed by Warner and McIntyre (1999) and Hines (1997), as well as the “multiwaves” approaches following the work of Lindzen (1981). The input meteorological fields necessary to run the parameterizations offline are extracted from the ERA5 reanalysis and correspond to the meteorological conditions found underneath the balloons. In general, there is fair agreement between amplitudes derived from measurements for waves with periods less than h and parameterizations. The correlation between the daily observations and the corresponding results of the parameterization can be around 0.4, which is significant, since 1200 days of observations are used. Given that the parameterizations have only been tuned to produce a quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in the models, the 0.4 correlation coefficient of the GW momentum fluxes is surprisingly good. These correlations nevertheless vary between schemes and depend little on their formulation (globally spectral versus multiwaves for instance). We therefore attribute these correlations to dynamical filtering, which all schemes take into account, whereas only a few relate the gravity waves to their sources. Statistically significant correlations are mostly found for eastward‐propagating waves, which may be due to the fact that during both Strateole 2 phases the QBO is easterly at the altitude of the balloon flights. We also found that the probability density functions (pdfs) of the momentum fluxes are represented better in spectral schemes with constant sources than in schemes (“spectral” or “multiwaves”) that relate GWs only to their convective sources.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141569254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Joint estimation of sea ice and atmospheric state from microwave imagers in operational weather forecasting 利用微波成像仪联合估计业务天气预报中的海冰和大气状态
IF 8.9 3区 地球科学
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4797
Alan J. Geer
{"title":"Joint estimation of sea ice and atmospheric state from microwave imagers in operational weather forecasting","authors":"Alan J. Geer","doi":"10.1002/qj.4797","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4797","url":null,"abstract":"Satellite‐observed microwave radiances provide information on both surface and atmosphere. For operational weather forecasting, information on atmospheric temperature, humidity, cloud, and precipitation is inferred directly using all‐sky radiance data assimilation. In contrast, information on the surface state, such as sea‐surface temperature (SST) and sea‐ice concentration (SIC), is typically provided through third‐party retrieval products. Scientifically, this is a sub‐optimal use of the observations, and practically it has disadvantages such as time delays of more than 48 h. A better solution is to estimate the surface and atmospheric state jointly from the radiance observations. This has not been possible until now, due to incomplete knowledge of the surface state and the radiative transfer that links this to the observed radiances. A new approach based on an empirical state and an empirical sea‐ice surface emissivity model is used here to add sea‐ice state estimation, including SIC, to the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts atmospheric data assimilation system. The sea‐ice state is estimated using augmented control variables at the observation locations. The resulting SIC estimates are of good quality and they highlight apparent defects in the existing OCEAN5 sea‐ice analysis. The SIC estimates can also be used to track giant icebergs, which may provide a novel maritime application for passive microwave radiances. Further, the SIC estimates should be suitable for onward use in coupled ocean–atmosphere data assimilation. There is also increased coverage of microwave observations in the proximity of sea ice, leading to improved atmospheric forecasts out to day 4 in the Southern Ocean.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141548739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the robustness of methods to account for background bias in data assimilation to uncertainties in the bias estimates 关于在数据同化中考虑背景偏差的方法对偏差估计的不确定性的稳健性
IF 8.9 3区 地球科学
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4790
Alison M. Fowler
{"title":"On the robustness of methods to account for background bias in data assimilation to uncertainties in the bias estimates","authors":"Alison M. Fowler","doi":"10.1002/qj.4790","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4790","url":null,"abstract":"Fundamental to the theory of data assimilation is that the data (i.e., the observations and the background) provide an unbiased estimate of the true state. There are many situations when this assumption is known to be far from valid; and without bias correction (BC), significant biases will be present in the resulting analysis. Here, we compare two methods to account for biases in the background that do not require a change to the data assimilation algorithm: explicit BC and covariance inflation (CI). When the background bias is known perfectly it is clear that the BC method outperforms the CI method, in that it can completely remove the effect of the background bias whereas the CI method can only reduce it. However, the background bias can only be estimated when unbiased observations are available. A lack of unbiased observations means that the estimate of the background bias will always be subject to sample errors and structural errors due to poor assumptions about how the bias varies in space and time. Given these difficulties in estimating the background bias, the robustness of the two methods in producing an unbiased analysis is studied within an idealised linear system. It is found that the CI method is much less sensitive to errors in the background bias estimate and that a smooth estimate of the bias is crucial to the success of the BC method. However, the CI method is more sensitive to uncorrected biases in the observations.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141548534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Investigating the role of tropical and extratropical waves in the Hadley circulation via present‐day Earth‐like to globally uniform sea‐surface temperature forcing 通过现今类地至全球均匀海面温度强迫,研究热带和外热带波在哈德利环流中的作用
IF 8.9 3区 地球科学
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4784
A.B.S. Thakur, Jai Sukhatme, Nili Harnik
{"title":"Investigating the role of tropical and extratropical waves in the Hadley circulation via present‐day Earth‐like to globally uniform sea‐surface temperature forcing","authors":"A.B.S. Thakur, Jai Sukhatme, Nili Harnik","doi":"10.1002/qj.4784","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4784","url":null,"abstract":"The tropical overturning circulation is examined in a moist aquaplanet general circulation model forced using a non‐interactive sea‐surface temperature (SST) distribution that varies between a present‐day Earth‐like profile and one that is globally uniform. A Hadley cell (HC)‐like flow is observed in all experiments along with the poleward transport of heat and angular momentum. In simulations with non‐zero SST gradients, deep convection near the Equator sets up a deep tropical cell; midlatitude baroclinic Rossby waves flux heat and angular momentum poleward, reinforcing the thermally direct circulation. As the imposed SST gradient is weakened, the HC transitions from a thermally and eddy‐driven regime to one that is completely eddy‐driven. When the SST is globally uniform, equatorial waves concentrate precipitation in the Tropics and facilitate the lower‐level convergence necessary for the ascending branch of the HC. Midlatitude Rossby waves generated near the surface become very weak, but upper‐level baroclinicity generates waves that cause equatorward transport of heat and poleward transport of momentum. Moreover, these upper‐level waves induce a circulation that opposes the time‐mean HC, thus highlighting the role of tropical waves in driving an overturning circulation that looks similar to the present‐day Earth‐like case, even for the case with globally uniform SSTs. In all cases, anomalies associated with the tropical waves closely resemble those that sum to give the upper‐level zonal mean divergent outflow. Through their ability to modulate tropical rainfall and the related latent heating, equatorial waves cause considerable hemispheric asymmetry in the HC and impart synoptic and intraseasonal variability to the tropical overturning circulation.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141552603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Correlation analysis between environmental factors and microphysical variables during the “Suizhou 812” heavy precipitation process in Suizhou City, Hubei Province of China 中国湖北省随州市 "随州 812 "强降水过程中环境因素与微物理变量的相关性分析
IF 8.9 3区 地球科学
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1002/qj.4792
Yinglian Guo, Zhimin Zhou, Zhaoping Kang, Minghuan Wang, Jun Li, Chunguang Cui
{"title":"Correlation analysis between environmental factors and microphysical variables during the “Suizhou 812” heavy precipitation process in Suizhou City, Hubei Province of China","authors":"Yinglian Guo, Zhimin Zhou, Zhaoping Kang, Minghuan Wang, Jun Li, Chunguang Cui","doi":"10.1002/qj.4792","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4792","url":null,"abstract":"Based on numerical simulation, this study investigates the relationship between environmental factors and microphysical variables of a heavy precipitation event in Suizhou on August 12, 2021, aiming to provide a reference for studying the interaction mechanisms of physical processes involved at different scales. The results demonstrate that environmental instability factors give an early indication of heavy precipitation occurrence and play a crucial role in connecting microphysical processes in the middle/upper layers with water vapor uplift in the lower layers before and during heavy precipitation events. Most of the peak/valley values of both environmental factors and microphysical variables occur simultaneously with those of precipitation on the hourly time series. The vertical profile reveals that, before the occurrence of heavy precipitation, there is an initial strengthening of ascending movement in the middle to upper troposphere, leading to an increase in ice‐phase particles and cloud water within these layers. Additionally, gravity sedimentation and melting significantly contribute to increased rainwater content within the lower to middle layers. When heavy precipitation occurs, intensified vertical velocity, vorticity, and water vapor convergence results in a decrease in cloud/rain particles' peak height and an increase in graupel particles' peak height. This leads to a prolonged collision process and heightened rainfall intensity. Furthermore, enhanced water vapor convergence promotes raindrops formation through colliding and coalescing with cloud droplets. By comparing variables/factors between extreme hourly heavy precipitation and general hourly heavy precipitation, it is suggested that the strengthened self‐feedback mechanism between microphysical latent heat release and vorticity may be one of the reasons for the occurrence of extreme hourly heavy rainfall.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141503270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信