Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society最新文献

{"title":"Long‐term assessment of ERA5 reanalysis rainfall for lightning events over India observed by Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Lightning Imaging Sensor","authors":"Prashant Kumar, Shailendra S. Srivastava, Nirav Jivani, Atul K. Varma, Chie Yokoyama, Takuji Kubota","doi":"10.1002/qj.4719","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4719","url":null,"abstract":"The ability of numerical weather prediction models to accurately predict extreme weather events, such as thunderstorms marked by heavy rainfall and lightning activities, has consistently been of great importance for human life. The objective of this study is to assess the long‐term reliability of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) rainfall in comparison to the Indian gauge‐adjusted Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP_ISRO) rainfall at the time of lightning flashes measured by the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite over the Indian region during the years 2001–2014. This analysis will provide valuable insights into the intricate relationship between lightning flashes and precipitation under various terrain conditions (low, mid, or high), across oceanic regions (Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea), and during different monsoon phases (normal, active, or deficit). According to a prolonged examination of LIS data, April–June accounts for ~50% of the total flashes, with the largest number of flashes occurring over the Himalayan and the northeastern part of India. According to hourly GSMaP_ISRO rainfall, the most substantial lightning‐associated rainfall happens an hour prior to lightning flash (<jats:italic>T</jats:italic> − 1) and within three hours after (<jats:italic>T</jats:italic> + 3), indicating a robust correlation between heavy rainfall and lightning activity during this time frame. The rainfall in the ERA5 reanalysis misses the intensity as well as duration of the peak rainfall at the time of lightning flashes. Furthermore, the ERA5 reanalysis rainfall depicts under (over)‐estimation of rainfall in plain (orographic) regions. The underestimation of ERA5 rainfall is very pronounced over the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal regions, mainly between flash time (<jats:italic>T</jats:italic>) to two hours after the flash time (<jats:italic>T</jats:italic> + 2). The results indicate that there is a requirement for additional enhancements in the ERA5 reanalysis rainfall for lightning occurrences.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":"198 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140615406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The meteorology of the 2019 North Queensland floods","authors":"Corey M. Robinson, Michael A. Barnes, Sugata Narsey, Michael J. Reeder","doi":"10.1002/qj.4685","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4685","url":null,"abstract":"In January–February 2019, a monsoon low developed over northeastern Australia and brought extreme flooding to much of tropical Queensland. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses are used to explain the formation and severity of the event. Strong anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking to the southeast of Australia produced weak steering winds over northern Australia, and consequently the low remained nearly stationary for over a week, contributing to the extreme rainfall. Furthermore, the tropical moist margin was deformed by a series of disturbances along the monsoon trough, which drew moist maritime air over land. The event examined has much in common with the composite mean of slow‐moving potential vorticity anomalies in North Queensland, including weak background winds and heavy precipitation. An ensemble subseasonal forecast with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Seasonal prediction version system 1 shows the same relationship between the background flow, the steering, and the subsequent rainfall. Hence, accurately forecasting the background winds is a prerequisite to forecasting such extreme rainfall.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":"107 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140564244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Role of Bay of Bengal low‐pressure systems in the formation of mid‐tropospheric cyclones over the Arabian Sea and western India","authors":"Pradeep Kushwaha, Jai Sukhatme, Ravi S Nanjundiah","doi":"10.1002/qj.4726","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4726","url":null,"abstract":"Arabian Sea mid‐tropospheric cyclones (MTCs), responsible for extreme rainfall events in Western India, often coincide with monsoon low‐pressure systems (LPSs) over the Bay of Bengal. However, the influence of Bay of Bengal LPSs on the formation of Arabian Sea MTCs remains unclear. This study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to investigate the atmospheric connection between these two basins. By introducing a balanced bogus vortex over the Bay of Bengal, cyclonic systems are induced over the Arabian Sea in the majority of ensemble members, exhibiting characteristics consistent with observations. In particular, as the Bay of Bengal vortex moves westward, the middle tropospheric trough deepens, horizontal wind shear increases, the low‐level Arabian Sea stable inversion layer weakens, and the middle troposphere moisture content over Western India and the northeast Arabian Sea rises. Subsequently, MTC genesis occurs over the northeast Arabian Sea along the western edge of the trough within 2–4 days of model integration. A vorticity budget analysis highlights the critical role of vorticity advection and tilting during the initial 24 h of MTC genesis, while vortex stretching becomes the dominant vorticity source during rapid intensification. To substantiate these findings further, a mechanism denial experiment is conducted using a real‐world instance of a coexistent Arabian Sea MTC and Bay of Bengal LPS, replicated in the model. In this experiment, conditions unfavorable for LPS genesis are created by cooling and drying the Bay of Bengal. The results demonstrate that the absence or reduced intensity of the Bay of Bengal LPS inhibits formation of the Arabian Sea MTC. In all, this study presents compelling evidence for the significant influence of Bay of Bengal low‐pressure systems on the formation of severe weather‐inducing MTCs over the Arabian Sea and Western India.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":"117 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140564553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics of extreme wind events in the marine and terrestrial sectors of coastal Antarctica","authors":"Thomas Caton Harrison, John C. King, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Hua Lu","doi":"10.1002/qj.4727","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4727","url":null,"abstract":"Antarctic coastal surface winds affect ice‐sheet stability, sea ice, and local ecosystems. The strongest coastal winds are especially important due to the nonlinear relationship between wind speed and wind stress. We investigate the dynamics of extreme coastal winds using a simplified momentum budget calculated across the period 2010–2020 from the ERA5 reanalysis. The pressure‐gradient forcing term in the budget is decomposed into a large‐scale component and one associated with the temperature deficit layer. The role of budget terms across the coastal sector is compared for weak and strong winds. We then calculate composites of the top 100 easterly wind events across six east Antarctic coastal sectors, identifying terms responsible for the evolution of coastal extremes. A simple balance of terms exists offshore, dominated by large‐scale forcing, contrasting with the complex balance in the onshore sector where katabatic forcing is large. Large‐scale forcing explains 57% of offshore coastal wind‐speed variance overall, improving to 81% when budget terms associated with the temperature deficit layer and horizontal advection are included, with significant regional variation. The residual term plays an increasingly active role as wind speed increases. Extremes in all coastal sectors are associated with a synoptic‐scale transient dipole of pressure anomalies driving warm‐air advection. Although katabatic forcing is a very large term in magnitude, it is found to play a passive role, declining as wind speeds increase during extreme conditions. In some regions, an anomalous southerly component develops during extremes, which we attribute to an ageostrophic barrier wind. This research underscores the major role for large‐scale forcing in Antarctica's coastal winds, but also reveals a significant regional locally driven component. The results have implications for improving numerical model simulations of coastal easterlies and for studying their impacts on ocean circulation, sea ice, and ice‐shelf basal melt.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":"101 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140564406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of storm‐track dynamics in the intraseasonal variability of the winter ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic","authors":"Christopher H. O'Reilly, Marie Drouard, Blanca Ayarzagüena, Maarten H. P. Ambaum, John Methven","doi":"10.1002/qj.4691","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4691","url":null,"abstract":"The response of the North Atlantic large‐scale circulation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits distinct differences between early (November–December) and late (January–February) winter. However, the reasons for this are unclear, particularly regarding the early winter response. Here we examine the role of storm‐track dynamics in influencing the intraseasonal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic. During late winter there a broad weakening of the eddy heat flux upstream of the North Atlantic storm track during the El Niño phase, which is associated with a broad southward jet shift across North America and the North Atlantic. The late winter response is reinforced by synoptic eddies through enhanced cyclonic wave breaking, consistent with previous studies. However, a stronger teleconnection occurs during early winter. There are modest changes in the North Atlantic eddy heat flux, but strong changes in the upper‐level storm track associated with ENSO, with increased anticyclonic wave breaking during El Niño reinforcing the jet across the central North Atlantic. During early winter there are less frequent northern eddy‐driven jet occurrences in El Niño years and more frequent northern eddy‐driven jet occurrences in La Niña years. These poleward North Atlantic jet excursions typically follow peaks in the eddy heat flux; however, in El Niño years this relationship breaks down and the jet does not transition to the northern position as frequently, despite no clear changes in the upstream eddy heat flux. Composite analysis reveals that precursor storm‐track anomalies upstream over the eastern North Pacific/North America are important in suppressing the poleward jet excursions. These precursors map onto the seasonal mean North Pacific storm‐track anomalies during El Niño. Measured across all years, there is a clear relationship between the mean early winter eastern North Pacific storm‐track activity and eastern North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet, which can explain the early winter ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140564243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Direct assimilation of radar reflectivity using an ensemble 3DEnVar approach to improve analysis and forecasting of tornadic supercells over eastern China","authors":"Shibo Gao, Jiahui Chen, Chao Yu, Haichuan Hu, Yuxin Wu","doi":"10.1002/qj.4724","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4724","url":null,"abstract":"An ensemble three‐dimensional ensemble‐variational (3DEnVar) data assimilation (En3DA) approach that directly assimilates radar reflectivity was developed based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model data assimilation system. This system adopts radar reflectivity as the control variable to avoid the need for a tangent linear and adjoint of the observation operator. Flow‐dependent covariance was introduced via ensemble forecasts updated by a group of 3DEnVar. The performance of the En3DA system was examined for two selected cases of high‐impact severe tornadic supercells over China. Results for both cases indicated that the structure of the storms in terms of intensity, coverage, and associated low‐level mesocyclones were analysed more accurately when using the En3DA approach than when adopting the 3DVar method. Hydrometeor analysis showed that En3DA provided a more physically reasonable increment of hydrometeors compared to 3DVar, especially for the graupel mixing ratio. Furthermore, the En3DA forecast was better than the 3DVar forecast throughout the forecast period for both studied cases. En3DA produced smaller errors in terms of intensity and location for supercell forecasts with respect to reflectivity and reflectivity swaths. Furthermore, the quantitative forecast skill of radar reflectivity was improved using En3DA. Errors in the wind, temperature, and water vapor forecast fields produced by En3DA were also reduced compared to those of 3DVar. Diagnostics revealed that En3DA predicted an enhanced low‐level cold pool and stronger outflows in the forward‐flank downdraft and the rear‐flank downdraft regions, which are important for tornadogenesis.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140564733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Local identification of equatorial Kelvin waves in real‐time operational forecasts","authors":"João B. Cruz, José M. Castanheira, Carlos C. DaCamara","doi":"10.1002/qj.4717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4717","url":null,"abstract":"Equatorial Kelvin waves (KWs) are associated with a variety of equatorial atmospheric phenomena, namely, tropical convection, cloud and precipitation variability, tropical cyclogenesis, the onset of monsoon season over Africa and India, and even the quasi‐biennial oscillation and the Madden–Julian oscillation. As such, if operational forecasts are to improve near the Tropics, it is important that they correctly represent KWs. This article aims at developing a novel methodology for identifying KWs in real‐time operational forecasts at specific longitudes using only the meridional structures of the solutions to the free Laplace tidal equations, known as Hough vector functions. The main advantages of this newly proposed methodology are that (a) it can identify KWs at a specific longitude and (b) very low computational cost is needed to apply it to real‐time operational forecasts. The application of the method to 2015–2017 European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis and operational forecast data reveals a systematic bias in the representation of KWs by the ECMWF operational forecast model.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140564636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamical study of three African Easterly Waves in September 2021","authors":"Tanguy Jonville, Cyrille Flamant, Christophe Lavaysse","doi":"10.1002/qj.4720","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4720","url":null,"abstract":"Three convectively active African easterly waves (AEWs) that propagated south of the African easterly jet were observed over the northeast Atlantic Ocean in September 2021. Their evolution is studied using a suite of theoretical frameworks, as well as the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecast reanalyses and satellite‐derived brightness temperature observations. The environment of these AEWs was sampled during the Cloud–Atmospheric Dynamics–Dust Interactions in West Africa campaign near Cape Verde with the goal to assess their potential for developing into tropical cyclones. We highlight the processes that inhibited the development of the first AEW (which evolved into tropical disturbance <jats:italic>Pierre‐Henri</jats:italic>) and that played a role in the development of the later two into tropical storms <jats:italic>Rose</jats:italic> and <jats:italic>Peter</jats:italic> on September 19, 2021. The three AEWs developed a so‐called “marsupial protective” pouch. For <jats:italic>Peter</jats:italic> and <jats:italic>Rose</jats:italic>, the pouch was associated with a vertically aligned vortex at low levels and efficiently protected the convective systems inside from dry and dusty air intrusion. The development of this low‐level vortex is associated with an interaction with the monsoon trough for <jats:italic>Rose</jats:italic> and with a vorticity center associated with a wave propagating north of the African easterly jet (AEJ) in the case of <jats:italic>Peter</jats:italic>. The presence of a dust flux toward the convective core near the surface is highlighted for <jats:italic>Rose</jats:italic> and <jats:italic>Peter</jats:italic> in spite of the presence of the protective marsupial pouch. On the other hand, <jats:italic>Pierre‐Henri</jats:italic> interacted positively with both the monsoon trough and an AEW north of the AEJ but failed to develop into a tropical cyclone. The wave north of the AEJ brought Saharan air layer air masses inside the pouch that led to a drying of the circulation that may explain the decrease in convective activity.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140564404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comments on ‘Theoretical aspects of the size distribution of fog particles’","authors":"Mingliang Xie","doi":"10.1002/qj.4730","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4730","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":"101 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140564325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Consistent, conservative, and efficient advection updatesfor iterative‐implicit atmospheric solvers","authors":"John Thuburn","doi":"10.1002/qj.4722","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4722","url":null,"abstract":"Atmospheric model dynamical cores that iterate towards a Crank–Nicolson‐like implicit time‐stepping scheme are attractive for operational prediction because their excellent stability properties permit the use of long time steps. However, the long‐time‐step advection schemes used in such models are relatively expensive, and that expense is compounded by the need to compute the advection terms multiple times in the iterative solver. Moreover, unless care is taken in the design of the solver, desirable properties of an advection scheme, such as conservation, consistency, and boundedness, might only be achieved in the unaffordable limit of solver convergence. Here, a modification to such iterative solvers is proposed, similar to the previously published SLIC scheme, in which full advection calculations are made only once per time step, with cheap advection updates made at each solver iteration. This modification significantly reduces the cost of such iterative solvers. It is shown here that the cheap advection updates and the solver back‐substitution calculations can be formulated in such a way that the advection remains conservative, consistent, and bounded no matter how many solver iterations are taken, and not only at solver convergence. The proposed approach is demonstrated in shallow‐water model simulations.","PeriodicalId":49646,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society","volume":"107 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.9,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140564336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}