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Traffic forecasting using least squares support vector machines 基于最小二乘支持向量机的交通预测
Transportmetrica Pub Date : 2009-07-29 DOI: 10.1080/18128600902823216
Yang Zhang, Yuncai Liu
{"title":"Traffic forecasting using least squares support vector machines","authors":"Yang Zhang, Yuncai Liu","doi":"10.1080/18128600902823216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18128600902823216","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate and timely forecasting of traffic parameters is crucial for effective management of intelligent transportation systems. Travel time index (TTI) is a fundamental measure in transportation. In this article, a non-parametric technique called least squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs) is proposed to forecast TTI. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time to cooperate the rising computational intelligence technique with state space approach in traffic forecasting. Five other baseline predictors are selected for comparison purposes because of their proved effectiveness. Having good generalisation ability and guaranteeing global minima, LS-SVMs perform better than the others. Experimental results demonstrate that our predictor can significantly reduce mean absolute percentage errors and variance of absolute percentage errors, especially for predicting traffic data with weak regularity. Persuasive comparisons clearly show that it provides a large improvement in stability and robustness, which reveals that it is a promising approach in traffic forecasting and time series analysis.","PeriodicalId":49416,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica","volume":"5 1","pages":"193 - 213"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/18128600902823216","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"59924809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 116
Data fusion for updating information in modelling drivers’ choice behaviour 基于数据融合的驾驶员选择行为建模信息更新
Transportmetrica Pub Date : 2009-04-29 DOI: 10.1080/18128600802630232
M. Dell'Orco, D. Teodorovic
{"title":"Data fusion for updating information in modelling drivers’ choice behaviour","authors":"M. Dell'Orco, D. Teodorovic","doi":"10.1080/18128600802630232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18128600802630232","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, a method for fusing fuzzy data relevant both to drivers’ experience and provided information is presented. Expected travel time is then updated according to the results of fusion. The method takes into account the ‘compatibility’ of data originating from different sources, and provides information about acceptability of results. Influence of uncertainty on drivers’ compliance with provided information is examined in detail, according to uncertainty-based information theory.","PeriodicalId":49416,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica","volume":"43 1","pages":"107 - 123"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/18128600802630232","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60523526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
On the existence and uniqueness of first best tolls in networks with multiple user classes and elastic demand 多用户类别和弹性需求网络中最优收费的存在性和唯一性
Transportmetrica Pub Date : 2009-04-29 DOI: 10.1080/18128600802673281
A. Clark, A. Sumalee, S. Shepherd, R. Connors
{"title":"On the existence and uniqueness of first best tolls in networks with multiple user classes and elastic demand","authors":"A. Clark, A. Sumalee, S. Shepherd, R. Connors","doi":"10.1080/18128600802673281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18128600802673281","url":null,"abstract":"System optimal (SO) or first best pricing is examined in networks with multiple user classes and elastic demand, where different user classes have a different average value of value of time (VOT). Different flows (and first best tolls) are obtained depending on whether the SO characterisation is in units of generalised time or money. The standard first best tolls for time unit system optimum are unsatisfactory, due to the fact that link tolls are differentiated across users. The standard first best tolls for the money unit system optimum may seem to be practicable, but the objective function of the money unit system optimum is nonconvex, leading to possible multiple optima (and non-unique first best tolls). Since these standard first best tolls are unsatisfactory, we look to finding common money tolls which drive user equilibrium flows to time unit SO flows. Such tolls are known to exist in the fixed demand case, but we prove that such tolls do not exist in the elastic demand case. Although common money tolls do not exist which drive the solution to the exact time system optimal flows, tolls do exist which can push the system close to time system optimum (TSO) flows.","PeriodicalId":49416,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica","volume":"5 1","pages":"141 - 157"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/18128600802673281","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60523768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 23
Dynamic system optimal traffic assignment – a state-dependent control theoretic approach 动态系统最优交通分配——一种状态相关控制理论方法
Transportmetrica Pub Date : 2009-04-29 DOI: 10.1080/18128600902717483
A. Chow
{"title":"Dynamic system optimal traffic assignment – a state-dependent control theoretic approach","authors":"A. Chow","doi":"10.1080/18128600902717483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18128600902717483","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates analytical dynamic system optimal assignment with departure time choice in a rigorous and original way. Dynamic system optimal assignment is formulated here as a state-dependent optimal control problem. A fixed volume of traffic is assigned to departure times and routes such that the total system travel cost is minimised. Solution algorithms are presented and the effect of time discretisation on the quality of calculated assignments is discussed. Calculating dynamic system optimal assignment and the associated optimal toll is shown to be difficult for practical implementation. We therefore consider some practical tolling strategies for dynamic management of network traffic. The tolling strategies considered include uniform and congestion-based tolling strategies. This study contributes to the literature on dynamic traffic modelling and management, and to support further analysis and model development in this area.","PeriodicalId":49416,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica","volume":"5 1","pages":"106 - 85"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/18128600902717483","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"59924763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 33
Seasonal ARIMA forecasting of inbound air travel arrivals to Taiwan 台湾入境航空旅客季节ARIMA预测
Transportmetrica Pub Date : 2009-04-29 DOI: 10.1080/18128600802591210
Ching-Fu Chen, Yu-Hern Chang, Y. Chang
{"title":"Seasonal ARIMA forecasting of inbound air travel arrivals to Taiwan","authors":"Ching-Fu Chen, Yu-Hern Chang, Y. Chang","doi":"10.1080/18128600802591210","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18128600802591210","url":null,"abstract":"This article uses the Holt–Winters method, the seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model, and the GM(1,1) grey forecasting model to replicate monthly inbound air travel arrivals to Taiwan and to compare the models’ forecasting performance. It uses the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the measurement of forecast accuracy and implements turning point analysis (TPA) to compare the model performance between the direct and indirect forecast methods. Based on the out-of-sample forecasts, all fitted models have good forecasting performance in terms of the MAPE criterion, and the SARIMA model is the best one for forecasting inbound air travel arrivals to Taiwan. According to the TPA results, this article supports the out-performance of the indirect forecast method.","PeriodicalId":49416,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica","volume":"5 1","pages":"125 - 140"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/18128600802591210","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60523376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 72
Are effects of travel feedback programs correctly assessed? 旅行反馈项目的效果是否得到了正确的评估?
Transportmetrica Pub Date : 2009-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/18128600802591277
S. Fujii, S. Bamberg, M. Friman, T. Gärling
{"title":"Are effects of travel feedback programs correctly assessed?","authors":"S. Fujii, S. Bamberg, M. Friman, T. Gärling","doi":"10.1080/18128600802591277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18128600802591277","url":null,"abstract":"It has been claimed that travel feedback programs (TFPs) are effective in reducing levels of car-use related congestion, noise, and air pollution. This article examines this claim, noting that many evaluation studies have employed less than optimal research designs. Demonstrating the use of meta-analysis, the results of 15 Japanese TFPs show that the effect sizes estimated for the frequently used research design lacking adequate control groups differ from the effect sizes estimated for research designs including adequate control groups. In addition, estimates of the homogeneity of treatment effects appear to differ, thus suggesting that inferences of causes of the effectiveness of a TFP vary with research design.","PeriodicalId":49416,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica","volume":"5 1","pages":"43 - 57"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/18128600802591277","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60523413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 65
Modelling activity generation: a utility-based model for activity-agenda formation 建模活动生成:活动议程形成的基于效用的模型
Transportmetrica Pub Date : 2009-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/18128600802591384
Khandker Nurul Habib, E. Miller
{"title":"Modelling activity generation: a utility-based model for activity-agenda formation","authors":"Khandker Nurul Habib, E. Miller","doi":"10.1080/18128600802591384","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18128600802591384","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents an econometric modelling framework for activity-agenda formation. The activity-agenda is referred to the collection of different types of activities that are to be scheduled within a specific time period (time budget). The concept of activity utility is used to model frequencies of all individual activity types under consideration within a specific time budget constraint. Contrary to univariate modelling approach for individual activity types separately, this approach deals with all activity types together in a unified econometric modelling framework. The specification of the model also ensures the scope for unplanned (or not defined a priori) activities within the time budget. Kuhn–Tucker optimality condition is used to ensure the probability of having zero frequency of any specific activity type. Each individual activity-specific utility has two components: baseline utility and additional utility. The logarithmic function of additional utility ensures the satiation effect with increasing frequency. The heterogeneity in activity behaviour is also considered by incorporating error correlation in baseline utility. Data from the 2002–2003 CHASE survey, collected in Toronto are used to test the model specifications. Application of this modelling framework in an activity-based travel demand model will greatly enhance behavioural validity as well as sensitivity to subtle transportation policies of travel demand models.","PeriodicalId":49416,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica","volume":"5 1","pages":"23 - 3"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/18128600802591384","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60523422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 61
Short-term prediction of traffic dynamics with real-time recurrent learning algorithms 基于实时循环学习算法的交通动态短期预测
Transportmetrica Pub Date : 2009-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/18128600802591681
Jiuh-Biing Sheu, L. Lan, Yi-San Huang
{"title":"Short-term prediction of traffic dynamics with real-time recurrent learning algorithms","authors":"Jiuh-Biing Sheu, L. Lan, Yi-San Huang","doi":"10.1080/18128600802591681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18128600802591681","url":null,"abstract":"Short-term prediction of dynamic traffic states remains critical in the field of advanced traffic management systems and related areas. In this article, a novel real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) algorithm is proposed to address the above issue. We dabble in comparing pair predictability of linear method versus RTRL algorithms and simple non-linear method versus RTRL algorithms individually using a first-order autoregressive time-series AR(1) and a deterministic function. A field study tested with flow, speed and occupancy series data collected directly from dual-loop detectors on a freeway is conducted. The numerical results reveal that the performance of RTRL algorithms in predicting short-term traffic dynamics is satisfactorily accepted. Furthermore, it is found that the dynamics of short-term traffic states characterised in different time intervals, collected in diverse time lags and times of day may have significant effects on the prediction accuracy of the proposed algorithms.","PeriodicalId":49416,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica","volume":"5 1","pages":"59 - 83"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/18128600802591681","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60523430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 17
Airport gate reassignment following temporary airport closures 机场临时关闭后重新安排登机口
Transportmetrica Pub Date : 2009-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/18128600802591814
S. Yan, Chun-Ying Chen, Ching-Hui Tang
{"title":"Airport gate reassignment following temporary airport closures","authors":"S. Yan, Chun-Ying Chen, Ching-Hui Tang","doi":"10.1080/18128600802591814","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18128600802591814","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we develop a reassignment model for the purpose of helping airport authorities with flight-to-gate reassignments following temporary airport closures. The objective of the model is to minimise the number of gate changes subject to the related operating constraints. A preliminary evaluation of how well the model performs in practice is performed using a case study based on real operating data from the Chiang Kai-Shek International Airport in Taiwan. Several problem instances of different scales are generated to test the model's efficiency. The results show that the network model would be useful for actual operations.","PeriodicalId":49416,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica","volume":"5 1","pages":"25 - 41"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/18128600802591814","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60523477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 17
USING AUTOMATIC VEHICLE IDENIFICATION DATA FOR TRAVEL TIME ESTIMATION IN HONG KONG 利用自动车辆识别数据估计香港的行车时间
Transportmetrica Pub Date : 2008-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/18128600808685688
M. Tam, W. Lam
{"title":"USING AUTOMATIC VEHICLE IDENIFICATION DATA FOR TRAVEL TIME ESTIMATION IN HONG KONG","authors":"M. Tam, W. Lam","doi":"10.1080/18128600808685688","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18128600808685688","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a Real-time Traveler Information System (RTIS) for Hong Kong, in which a novel solution algorithm is proposed for estimation of both the current and instantaneous travel times using automatic vehicle identification (AVI) data. The proposed algorithm also deduces the travel times on the other road links without real-time AVI data. By integration of the filtered real-time and off-line database together, the RTIS can provide area-wide traffic information in the whole network of Hong Kong. The travel time estimates are updated once every five minutes in the RTIS. Observation surveys are conducted during different time periods at a selected path in Hong Kong urban area to validate the RTIS travel time estimates. With the use of the same set of observation data, comparison is also given to the estimation results of the other three existing AVI travel time estimation algorithms: TransGuide, TranStar and Transmit algorithms in US. It was found that the proposed RTIS algorithm could generate the current travel time estimates for the three study periods with the minimum absolute errors and absolute percentage errors. The estimations of instantaneous travel times on the road sections with and without real-time AVI data have also been illustrated. The validation results show that the performance of RTIS is satisfactory and acceptable.","PeriodicalId":49416,"journal":{"name":"Transportmetrica","volume":"4 1","pages":"179 - 194"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/18128600808685688","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"59924702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 81
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