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Effects of social-distancing on infectious disease dynamics: an evolutionary game theory and economic perspective. 社会距离对传染病动态的影响:进化博弈论和经济学观点。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1946177
Maia Martcheva, Necibe Tuncer, Calistus N Ngonghala
{"title":"Effects of social-distancing on infectious disease dynamics: an evolutionary game theory and economic perspective.","authors":"Maia Martcheva,&nbsp;Necibe Tuncer,&nbsp;Calistus N Ngonghala","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.1946177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1946177","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We propose two models inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic: a coupled disease-human behaviour (or disease-game theoretic), and a coupled disease-human behaviour-economic model, both of which account for the impact of social-distancing on disease control and economic growth. The models exhibit rich dynamical behaviour including multistable equilibria, a backward bifurcation, and sustained bounded periodic oscillations. Analyses of the first model suggests that the disease can be eliminated if everybody practices full social-distancing, but the most likely outcome is some level of disease coupled with some level of social-distancing. The same outcome is observed with the second model when the economy is weaker than the social norms to follow health directives. However, if the economy is stronger, it can support some level of social-distancing that can lead to disease elimination.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":"342-366"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17513758.2021.1946177","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39114566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
A delay non-autonomous model for the combined effects of fear, prey refuge and additional food for predator. 恐惧、猎物庇护和捕食者额外食物联合效应的延迟非自主模型。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.2001583
Nazmul Sk, Pankaj Kumar Tiwari, Samares Pal, Maia Martcheva
{"title":"A delay non-autonomous model for the combined effects of fear, prey refuge and additional food for predator.","authors":"Nazmul Sk,&nbsp;Pankaj Kumar Tiwari,&nbsp;Samares Pal,&nbsp;Maia Martcheva","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.2001583","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.2001583","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we investigate the combined effects of fear, prey refuge and additional food for predator in a predator-prey system with Beddington type functional response. We observe oscillatory behaviour of the system in the absence of fear, refuge and additional food whereas the system shows stable dynamics if anyone of these three factors is introduced. After analysing the behaviour of system with fear, refuge and additional food, we find that the system destabilizes due to fear factor whereas refuge and additional food stabilize the system by killing persistent oscillations. We extend our model by considering the fact that after sensing the chemical/vocal cue, prey takes some time for assessing the predation risk. The delayed system shows chaotic dynamics through multiple stability switches for increasing values of time delay. Moreover, we see the impact of seasonal change in the level of fear on the delayed as well as non-delayed system.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":"580-622"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39899392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Complexity of host-vector dynamics in a two-strain dengue model. 两株登革热模型中宿主-媒介动力学的复杂性。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2020.1864038
Peter Rashkov, Bob W Kooi
{"title":"Complexity of host-vector dynamics in a two-strain dengue model.","authors":"Peter Rashkov,&nbsp;Bob W Kooi","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2020.1864038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2020.1864038","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We introduce a compartmental host-vector model for dengue with two viral strains, temporary cross-immunity for the hosts, and possible secondary infections. We study the conditions on existence of endemic equilibria where one strain displaces the other or the two virus strains co-exist. Since the host and vector epidemiology follow different time scales, the model is described as a slow-fast system. We use the geometric singular perturbation technique to reduce the model dimension. We compare the behaviour of the full model with that of the model with a quasi-steady approximation for the vector dynamics. We also perform numerical bifurcation analysis with parameter values from the literature and compare the bifurcation structure to that of previous two-strain host-only models.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":"35-72"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17513758.2020.1864038","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38746374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
On the reproduction number in epidemics. 关于流行病中的繁殖数。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.2001584
Milan Batista
{"title":"On the reproduction number in epidemics.","authors":"Milan Batista","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.2001584","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.2001584","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This note provides an elementary derivation of the basic reproduction number and the effective reproduction number from the discrete Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model. The derived formulae match those derived from the continuous version of the model; however, the derivation from discrete model is a bit more intuitive. The MATLAB functions for its calculation are given. A real case example is considered and the results are compared with those obtained by the R0 and the EpiEstim software packages.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":"623-634"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39642207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The impact of poaching and regime switching on the dynamics of single-species model. 偷猎和制度转换对单物种模型动力学的影响。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1914757
Pengcheng Du, Yunhua Liao
{"title":"The impact of poaching and regime switching on the dynamics of single-species model.","authors":"Pengcheng Du,&nbsp;Yunhua Liao","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.1914757","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1914757","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>It is widely recognized that the criminal act of poaching has brought tremendous damage to biodiversity. This paper employs a stochastic single-species model with regime switching to investigate the impact of poaching. We first carry out the survival analysis and obtain sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence in mean of the single-species population. Then, we show that the model is positive recurrent by constructing suitable Lyapunov function. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to support our theoretical results. It is found that: (i) As the intensity of poaching increases, the odds of being at risk of extinction increases for the single-species population. (ii) The regime switching can suppress the extinction of the single-species population. (iii) The white noise is detrimental to the survival of the single-species population. (iv) Increasing the criminal cost of poaching and establishing animal sanctuaries are important ways to protect biodiversity.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":"250-268"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17513758.2021.1914757","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38881059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
On the basic reproduction number in semi-Markov switching networks. 半马尔可夫交换网络的基本复制数。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2020.1867246
Xiaochun Cao, Zhen Jin, Guirong Liu, Michael Y Li
{"title":"On the basic reproduction number in semi-Markov switching networks.","authors":"Xiaochun Cao,&nbsp;Zhen Jin,&nbsp;Guirong Liu,&nbsp;Michael Y Li","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2020.1867246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2020.1867246","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Basic reproduction number <math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mn>0</mn></msub></math> in network epidemic dynamics is studied in the case of stochastic regime-switching networks. For generality, the dependence between successive networks is considered to follow a continuous time semi-Markov chain. <math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mn>0</mn></msub></math> is the weighted average of the basic reproduction numbers of deterministic subnetworks. Its position with respect to 1 can determine epidemic persistence or extinction in theories and simulations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":"73-85"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17513758.2020.1867246","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38784700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Long-term transmission dynamics of tick-borne diseases involving seasonal variation and co-feeding transmission. 涉及季节变化和共食传播的蜱传疾病的长期传播动力学。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1919322
Kyeongah Nah, Jianhong Wu
{"title":"Long-term transmission dynamics of tick-borne diseases involving seasonal variation and co-feeding transmission.","authors":"Kyeongah Nah,&nbsp;Jianhong Wu","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.1919322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1919322","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Co-feeding is a mode of pathogen transmission for a wide range of tick-borne diseases where susceptible ticks can acquire infection from co-feeding with infected ticks on the same hosts. The significance of this transmission pathway is determined by the co-occurrence of ticks at different stages in the same season. Taking this into account, we formulate a system of differential equations with tick population dynamics and pathogen transmission dynamics highly regulated by the seasonal temperature variations. We examine the global dynamics of the model systems, and show that the two important ecological and epidemiological basic reproduction numbers can be used to fully characterize the long-term dynamics, and we link these two important threshold values to efficacy of co-feeding transmission.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":"269-286"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17513758.2021.1919322","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38846386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Dynamic mechanism of multiple bursting patterns in a whole-cell multiscale model with calcium oscillations. 含钙振荡的全细胞多尺度模型中多种破裂模式的动力机制。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1925753
Xiaowen Xiong, Yanqiu Li, Dongmei Zheng
{"title":"Dynamic mechanism of multiple bursting patterns in a whole-cell multiscale model with calcium oscillations.","authors":"Xiaowen Xiong,&nbsp;Yanqiu Li,&nbsp;Dongmei Zheng","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.1925753","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1925753","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The dynamic mechanism of a whole-cell model containing electrical signalling and two-compartment Ca<math><msup><mi></mi><mrow><mn>2</mn><mo>+</mo></mrow></msup></math> signalling in gonadotrophs is investigated. The transition from spiking to bursting by Hopf bifurcation of the fast subsystem about the slow variable is detected via the suitable parameters. When the timescale of K<math><msup><mi></mi><mo>+</mo></msup></math> gating variable is changed, the relaxation oscillation with locally small fluctuation, chaotic bursting and mixed-mode bursting (MMB) are revealed through chaos. In addition, the bifurcation of <math><mo>[</mo><msup><mrow><mi>C</mi><mi>a</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn><mo>+</mo></mrow></msup><msub><mo>]</mo><mi>i</mi></msub></math> with regard to <math><mo>[</mo><mi>I</mi><msub><mi>P</mi><mn>3</mn></msub><mo>]</mo></math> is analysed, showing periodic solutions, torus, period doubling solutions and chaos. Finally, hyperpolarizations and torus canard-like behaviours of the full system under a set of specific parameters are elucidated.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":"308-326"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17513758.2021.1925753","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39065793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A discrete-time risk-structured model of cholera infections in Cameroon. 喀麦隆霍乱感染的离散时间风险结构模型。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1991497
Eric Che, Abdul-Aziz Yakubu
{"title":"A discrete-time risk-structured model of cholera infections in Cameroon.","authors":"Eric Che,&nbsp;Abdul-Aziz Yakubu","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.1991497","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1991497","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In a recent paper, Che et al. [5] used a continuous-time Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) model with risk structure to study cholera infections in Cameroon. However, the population and the reported cholera cases in Cameroon are censored at discrete-time annual intervals. In this paper, unlike in [5], we introduce a discrete-time risk-structured cholera model with no spatial structure. We use our discrete-time demographic equation to 'fit' the annual population of Cameroon. Furthermore, we use our fitted discrete-time model to capture the annually reported cholera cases from 1987 to 2004 and to study the impact of vaccination, treatment and improved sanitation on the number of cholera infections from 2004 to 2019. Our discrete-time cholera model confirms the results of the ODE model in [5]. However, our discrete-time model predicts a decrease in the number of cholera cases in a shorter period of cholera intervention (2004-2019) as compared to the ODE model's period of intervention (2004-2022).</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":"523-562"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39536186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Impulsive release strategies of sterile mosquitos for optimal control of wild population. 不育蚊脉冲释放策略对野生种群的优化控制。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1887380
Mingzhan Huang, Lei You, Shouzong Liu, Xinyu Song
{"title":"Impulsive release strategies of sterile mosquitos for optimal control of wild population.","authors":"Mingzhan Huang,&nbsp;Lei You,&nbsp;Shouzong Liu,&nbsp;Xinyu Song","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.1887380","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1887380","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>To investigate the release strategies of sterile mosquitoes for the wild population control, we propose mathematical models for the interaction between two-mosquito populations incorporating impulsive releases of sterile ones. The long-term control model is first studied, and the existence and stability of the wild mosquito-extinction periodic solution are exploited. Thresholds of the release amount and release period which can guarantee the elimination of the wild mosquitos are obtained. Then for the limited-time control model, three different optimal strategies in impulsive control are investigated. By applying a time rescaling technique and an optimization algorithm based on gradient, the optimal impulsive release timings and amounts of sterile mosquitoes are obtained. Our results show that the optimal selection of release timing is more important than the optimal selection of release amount, while mixed optimal control has the best comprehensive effect.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":"151-176"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17513758.2021.1887380","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"25379020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
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