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A computational approach to identifiability analysis for a model of the propagation and control of COVID-19 in Chile. 新冠肺炎在智利传播和控制模型的可识别性分析的计算方法。
IF 2.7 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2023.2256774
Raimund Bürger, Gerardo Chowell, Ilja Kröker, Leidy Yissedt Lara-Díaz
{"title":"A computational approach to identifiability analysis for a model of the propagation and control of COVID-19 in Chile.","authors":"Raimund Bürger, Gerardo Chowell, Ilja Kröker, Leidy Yissedt Lara-Díaz","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2023.2256774","DOIUrl":"10.1080/17513758.2023.2256774","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A computational approach is adapted to analyze the parameter identifiability of a compartmental model. The model is intended to describe the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile during the initial phase in early 2020 when government declared quarantine measures. The computational approach to analyze the structural and practical identifiability is applied in two parts, one for synthetic data and another for some Chilean regional data. The first part defines the identifiable parameter sets when these recover the true parameters used to create the synthetic data. The second part compares the results derived from synthetic data, estimating the identifiable parameter sets from regional Chilean epidemic data. Experiments provide evidence of the loss of identifiability if some initial conditions are estimated, the period of time used to fit is before the peak, and if a significant proportion of the population is involved in quarantine periods.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"17 1","pages":"2256774"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10620014/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10649857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mathematical model on HIV and nutrition. 艾滋病毒和营养的数学模型。
IF 1.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2023.2287087
Tharusha Bandara, Maia Martcheva, Calistus N Ngonghala
{"title":"Mathematical model on HIV and nutrition.","authors":"Tharusha Bandara, Maia Martcheva, Calistus N Ngonghala","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2023.2287087","DOIUrl":"10.1080/17513758.2023.2287087","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>HIV continues to be a major global health issue, having claimed millions of lives in the last few decades. While several empirical studies support the fact that proper nutrition is useful in the fight against HIV, very few studies have focused on developing and using mathematical modelling approaches to assess the association between HIV, human immune response to the disease, and nutrition. We develop a within-host model for HIV that captures the dynamic interactions between HIV, the immune system and nutrition. We find that increased viral activity leads to increased serum protein levels. We also show that the viral production rate is positively correlated with HIV viral loads, as is the enhancement rate of protein by virus. Although our numerical simulations indicate a direct correlation between dietary protein intake and serum protein levels in HIV-infected individuals, further modelling and clinical studies are necessary to gain comprehensive understanding of the relationship.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"17 1","pages":"2287087"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138452869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Recurrent epidemic waves in a delayed epidemic model with quarantine. 带隔离的延迟流行病模型中的反复流行波。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2111468
Toshikazu Kuniya
{"title":"Recurrent epidemic waves in a delayed epidemic model with quarantine.","authors":"Toshikazu Kuniya","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2111468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2111468","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we are concerned with an epidemic model with quarantine and distributed time delay. We define the basic reproduction number <math><msub><mrow><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow></mrow><mn>0</mn></msub></math> and show that if <math><msub><mrow><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow></mrow><mn>0</mn></msub><mo>≤</mo><mn>1</mn></math>, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, whereas if <math><msub><mrow><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow></mrow><mn>0</mn></msub><mo>></mo><mn>1</mn></math>, then it is unstable and there exists a unique endemic equilibrium. We obtain sufficient conditions for a Hopf bifurcation that induces a nontrivial periodic solution which represents recurrent epidemic waves. By numerical simulations, we illustrate stability and instability parameter regions. Our results suggest that the quarantine and time delay play important roles in the occurrence of recurrent epidemic waves.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"619-639"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40685141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Existence and stability of two periodic solutions for an interactive wild and sterile mosquitoes model. 野生和不育蚊子模型两个周期解的存在性和稳定性。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 Epub Date: 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.2023666
Zhongcai Zhu, Rong Yan, Xiaomei Feng
{"title":"Existence and stability of two periodic solutions for an interactive wild and sterile mosquitoes model.","authors":"Zhongcai Zhu,&nbsp;Rong Yan,&nbsp;Xiaomei Feng","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.2023666","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.2023666","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we study the periodic and stable dynamics of an interactive wild and sterile mosquito population model with density-dependent survival probability. We find a release amount upper bound <math><msup><mi>G</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math>, depending on the release waiting period <i>T</i>, such that the model has exactly two periodic solutions, with one stable and another unstable, provided that the release amount does not exceed <math><msup><mi>G</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math>. A numerical example is also given to illustrate our results.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"277-293"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39804299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Using an age-structured COVID-19 epidemic model and data to model virulence evolution in Wuhan, China. 利用年龄结构的COVID-19流行模型和数据模拟中国武汉的毒力进化
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.2020916
Xi-Chao Duan, Xue-Zhi Li, Maia Martcheva, Sanling Yuan
{"title":"Using an age-structured COVID-19 epidemic model and data to model virulence evolution in Wuhan, China.","authors":"Xi-Chao Duan,&nbsp;Xue-Zhi Li,&nbsp;Maia Martcheva,&nbsp;Sanling Yuan","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.2020916","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.2020916","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>COVID-19 is a disease caused by infection with the virus 2019-nCoV, a single-stranded RNA virus. During the infection and transmission processes, the virus evolves and mutates rapidly, though the disease has been quickly controlled in Wuhan by 'Fangcang' hospitals. To model the virulence evolution, in this paper, we formulate a new age structured epidemic model. Under the tradeoff hypothesis, two special scenarios are used to study the virulence evolution by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. Results show that, before 'Fangcang' hospitals, two scenarios are both consistent with the data. After 'Fangcang' hospitals, Scenario I rather than Scenario II is consistent with the data. It is concluded that the transmission pattern of COVID-19 in Wuhan obey Scenario I rather than Scenario II. Theoretical analysis show that, in Scenario I, shortening the value of <i>L</i> (diagnosis period) can result in an enormous selective pressure on the evolution of 2019-nCoV.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"14-28"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39906287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Dynamic analysis of stochastic delay mutualistic system of leaf-cutter ants with stage structure and their fungus garden. 具有阶段结构的切叶蚁随机延迟共生系统及其真菌园的动态分析。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2099590
Ruimin Zhang, Xiaohui Liu, Chunjin Wei
{"title":"Dynamic analysis of stochastic delay mutualistic system of leaf-cutter ants with stage structure and their fungus garden.","authors":"Ruimin Zhang,&nbsp;Xiaohui Liu,&nbsp;Chunjin Wei","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2099590","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2099590","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we propose a stochastic delay mutualistic model of leaf-cutter ants with stage structure and their fungus garden, in which we explore how the discrete delay and white noise affect the dynamic of the population system. The existence and uniqueness of global positive solution are proved, and the asymptotic behaviours of the stochastic model around the positive equilibrium point of the deterministic model are also investigated. Furthermore, the sufficient conditions for the persistence of the population are established. Finally, some numerical simulations are performed to show the effect of random environmental fluctuation on the model.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"565-584"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40516405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The state-dependent impulsive control for a general predator-prey model. 一般捕食者-猎物模型的状态相关脉冲控制。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 Epub Date: 2021-06-05 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1937721
Xiaoxiao Zhu, Huilan Wang, Zigen Ouyang
{"title":"The state-dependent impulsive control for a general predator-prey model.","authors":"Xiaoxiao Zhu,&nbsp;Huilan Wang,&nbsp;Zigen Ouyang","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.1937721","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1937721","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, a general predator-prey model with state-dependent impulse is considered. Based on the geometric analysis and Poincaré map or successor function, we construct three typical types of Bendixson domains to obtain some sufficient conditions for the existence of order-1 periodic solutions. At the same time, the existing domains are discussed with respect to the system parameters. Moreover, the Analogue of Poincaré Criterion is used to obtain the asymptotic stability of the periodic solutions. Finally, to illustrate the results, an example is presented and some numerical simulations are carried out.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"354-372"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17513758.2021.1937721","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39065795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamics in a reaction-diffusion epidemic model via environmental driven infection in heterogenous space. 异质空间中环境驱动感染的反应-扩散流行病模型动力学。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 Epub Date: 2021-03-16 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.1900428
Ning Wang, Long Zhang, Zhidong Teng
{"title":"Dynamics in a reaction-diffusion epidemic model via environmental driven infection in heterogenous space.","authors":"Ning Wang,&nbsp;Long Zhang,&nbsp;Zhidong Teng","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.1900428","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1900428","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, a reaction-diffusion SIR epidemic model via environmental driven infection in heterogeneous space is proposed. To reflect the prevention and control measures of disease in allusion to the susceptible in the model, the nonlinear incidence function <math><mi>E</mi><mi>f</mi><mo>(</mo><mi>S</mi><mo>)</mo></math> is applied to describe the protective measures of susceptible. In the general spatially heterogeneous case of the model, the well-posedness of solutions is obtained. The basic reproduction number <math><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math> is calculated. When <math><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub><mo>≤</mo><mn>1</mn></math> the global asymptotical stability of the disease-free equilibrium is obtained, while when <math><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub><mo>></mo><mn>1</mn></math> the model is uniformly persistent. Furthermore, in the spatially homogeneous case of the model, when <math><msub><mi>R</mi><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub><mo>></mo><mn>1</mn></math> the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium is obtained. Lastly, the numerical examples are enrolled to verify the open problems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"373-396"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17513758.2021.1900428","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"25493174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Bacteria-bacteriophage cycles facilitate Cholera outbreak cycles: an indirect Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Bacteria- Phage (iSIRBP) model-based mathematical study. 细菌-噬菌体周期促进霍乱爆发周期:一项间接易感-感染-恢复-细菌-噬菌体(iSIRBP)模型为基础的数学研究。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.2017032
Asma Al Habees, Eman Aldabbas, Nicola L Bragazzi, Jude D Kong
{"title":"Bacteria-bacteriophage cycles facilitate Cholera outbreak cycles: an indirect Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Bacteria- Phage (iSIRBP) model-based mathematical study.","authors":"Asma Al Habees,&nbsp;Eman Aldabbas,&nbsp;Nicola L Bragazzi,&nbsp;Jude D Kong","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.2017032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.2017032","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Cholera is an acute enteric infectious disease caused by the Gram-negative bacterium <i>Vibrio cholerae</i>. Despite a huge body of research, the precise nature of its transmission dynamics has yet to be fully elucidated. Mathematical models can be useful to better understand how an infectious agent can spread and be properly controlled. We develop a compartmental model describing a human population, a bacterial population as well as a phage population. We show that there might be eight equilibrium points, one of which is a disease free equilibrium point. We carry out numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses and we show that the presence of phage can reduce the number of infectious individuals. Moreover, we discuss the main implications in terms of public health management and control strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"29-43"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39906286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Analysing transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS with optimal control strategy and its controlled state. 用最优控制策略及其控制状态分析HIV/AIDS的传播动态。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2096934
Rinlapas Wattanasirikosone, Chairat Modnak
{"title":"Analysing transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS with optimal control strategy and its controlled state.","authors":"Rinlapas Wattanasirikosone,&nbsp;Chairat Modnak","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2096934","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2096934","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>HIV is a virus that weakens a person's immune system. HIV has three stages, and AIDS is the most severe stage of HIV (Stage 3). People with HIV should take medicine (called ART) recommended by WHO as soon as possible to reduce the amount of virus in the body. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model for HIV/AIDS with a new approach by focusing on two groups of infectious individuals, HIV and AIDS. We also introduce a controlled class (treated patients and being monitored), and people in this class can spread the disease. We further investigate the essential dynamics of the model through an equilibrium analysis. Optimal control theory is applied to explore effective treatment strategies by combining two control measures: standard antiretroviral therapy and AIDS treatments. Numerical simulation results show the effects of the two time-dependent controls, and they can be used as guidelines for public health interventions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"499-527"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40480682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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