Journal of Biological Dynamics最新文献

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A contact tracing SIR model for randomly mixed populations. 随机混合群体接触追踪SIR模型。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2153938
Sam Bednarski, Laura L E Cowen, Junling Ma, Tanya Philippsen, P van den Driessche, Manting Wang
{"title":"A contact tracing SIR model for randomly mixed populations.","authors":"Sam Bednarski,&nbsp;Laura L E Cowen,&nbsp;Junling Ma,&nbsp;Tanya Philippsen,&nbsp;P van den Driessche,&nbsp;Manting Wang","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2153938","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2153938","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Contact tracing is an important intervention measure to control infectious diseases. We present a new approach that borrows the edge dynamics idea from network models to track contacts included in a compartmental SIR model for an epidemic spreading in a randomly mixed population. Unlike network models, our approach does not require statistical information of the contact network, data that are usually not readily available. The model resulting from this new approach allows us to study the effect of contact tracing and isolation of diagnosed patients on the control reproduction number and number of infected individuals. We estimate the effects of tracing coverage and capacity on the effectiveness of contact tracing. Our approach can be extended to more realistic models that incorporate latent and asymptomatic compartments.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"16 1","pages":"859-879"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10486605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deciphering the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in India: optimal control and cost effective analysis. 解读COVID-19在印度的传播动态:最优控制和成本效益分析。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2116493
Vijay Pal Bajiya, Sarita Bugalia, Jai Prakash Tripathi, Maia Martcheva
{"title":"Deciphering the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in India: optimal control and cost effective analysis.","authors":"Vijay Pal Bajiya,&nbsp;Sarita Bugalia,&nbsp;Jai Prakash Tripathi,&nbsp;Maia Martcheva","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2116493","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2116493","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper we assess the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 utilizing a compartmental model. The local asymptotic stability of equilibria (disease-free and endemic) in terms of the basic reproduction number have been determined. We find that the system undergoes a backward bifurcation in the case of imperfect quarantine. The parameters of the model have been estimated from the total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number has been performed. The findings also suggest that effectiveness of face masks plays a significant role in reducing the COVID-19 prevalence in India. Optimal control problem with several control strategies has been investigated. We find that the intervention strategies including implementation of lockdown, social distancing, and awareness only, has the highest cost-effectiveness in controlling the infection. This combined strategy also has the least value of average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER) and associated cost.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"665-712"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33464715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Analysis of HIV latent infection model with multiple infection stages and different drug classes. 多感染阶段、不同药物类别HIV潜伏感染模型分析。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2113828
Areej Alshorman, Nidal Al-Hosainat, Trachette Jackson
{"title":"Analysis of HIV latent infection model with multiple infection stages and different drug classes.","authors":"Areej Alshorman,&nbsp;Nidal Al-Hosainat,&nbsp;Trachette Jackson","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2113828","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2113828","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Latently infected CD<math><msup><mn>4</mn><mo>+</mo></msup></math> T cells represent one of the major obstacles to HIV eradication even after receiving prolonged highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART). Long-term use of HAART causes the emergence of drug-resistant virus which is then involved in HIV transmission. In this paper, we develop mathematical HIV models with staged disease progression by incorporating entry inhibitor and latently infected cells. We find that entry inhibitor has the same effect as protease inhibitor on the model dynamics and therefore would benefit HIV patients who developed resistance to many of current anti-HIV medications. Numerical simulations illustrate the theoretical results and show that the virus and latently infected cells reach an infected steady state in the absence of treatment and are eliminated under treatment whereas the model including homeostatic proliferation of latently infected cells maintains the virus at low level during suppressive treatment. Therefore, complete cure of HIV needs complete eradication of latent reservoirs.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"713-732"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40559171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Control analysis of virotherapy chaotic system. 病毒治疗混沌系统的控制分析。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2104391
Javaria Iqbal, Salman Ahmad, Muhammad Marwan, Ayesha Rafiq
{"title":"Control analysis of virotherapy chaotic system.","authors":"Javaria Iqbal,&nbsp;Salman Ahmad,&nbsp;Muhammad Marwan,&nbsp;Ayesha Rafiq","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2104391","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2104391","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this work, we consider a chaotic system that plays a vital role in the treatment of cancer by injection of a virus externally. Due to the sensitivity of this disease, most of its treatments are highly risky. Therefore, we have designed control inputs using adaptive and passive control techniques for virotherapy. Both controllers are designed to bring global stability to the cancer system with the aid of a quadratic Lyapunov function. Furthermore, we use simulations to verify our controllers. Moreover, we show that our adaptive control technique gives better results in comparison.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"585-595"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40648506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Optimal reduced-mixing for an SIS infectious-disease model. SIS传染病模型的最优减少混合。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2148764
Erin Stafford, Mark Kot
{"title":"Optimal reduced-mixing for an SIS infectious-disease model.","authors":"Erin Stafford,&nbsp;Mark Kot","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2148764","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2148764","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Which reduced-mixing strategy maximizes economic output during a disease outbreak? To answer this question, we formulate an optimal-control problem that maximizes the difference between revenue, due to healthy individuals, and medical costs, associated with infective individuals, for SIS disease dynamics. The control variable is the level of mixing in the population, which influences both revenue and the spread of the disease. Using Pontryagin's maximum principle, we find a closed-form solution for our problem. We explore an example of our problem with parameters for the transmission of <i>Staphylococcus aureus</i> in dairy cows, and we perform sensitivity analyses to determine how model parameters affect optimal strategies. We find that less mixing is preferable when the transmission rate is high, the per-capita recovery rate is low, or when the revenue parameter is much smaller than the cost parameter.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"746-765"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40701778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modeling malaria transmission in Nepal: impact of imported cases through cross-border mobility. 尼泊尔疟疾传播建模:通过跨境流动输入病例的影响。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2096935
Ramesh Gautam, Anjana Pokharel, Khagendra Adhikari, Kedar Nath Uprety, Naveen K Vaidya
{"title":"Modeling malaria transmission in Nepal: impact of imported cases through cross-border mobility.","authors":"Ramesh Gautam,&nbsp;Anjana Pokharel,&nbsp;Khagendra Adhikari,&nbsp;Kedar Nath Uprety,&nbsp;Naveen K Vaidya","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2096935","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2096935","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The cross-border mobility of malaria cases poses an obstacle to malaria elimination programmes in many countries, including Nepal. Here, we develop a novel mathematical model to study how the imported malaria cases through the Nepal-India open-border affect the Nepal government's goal of eliminating malaria by 2026. Mathematical analyses and numerical simulations of our model, validated by malaria case data from Nepal, indicate that eliminating malaria from Nepal is possible if strategies promoting the absence of cross-border mobility, complete protection of transmission abroad, or strict border screening and isolation are implemented. For each strategy, we establish the conditions for the elimination of malaria. We further use our model to identify the control strategies that can help maintain a low endemic level. Our results show that the ideal control strategies should be designed according to the average mosquito biting rates that may depend on the location and season.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"528-564"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40504606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The effects of evolution on the stability of competing species. 进化对竞争物种稳定性的影响。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2154860
S Elaydi, Y Kang, R Luís
{"title":"The effects of evolution on the stability of competing species.","authors":"S Elaydi,&nbsp;Y Kang,&nbsp;R Luís","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2154860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2154860","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Based on evolutionary game theory and Darwinian evolution, we propose and study discrete-time competition models of two species where at least one species has an evolving trait that affects their intra-specific, but not their inter-specific competition coefficients. By using perturbation theory, and the theory of the limiting equations of non-autonomous discrete dynamical systems, we obtain global stability results. Our theoretical results indicate that evolution may promote and/or suppress the stability of the coexistence equilibrium depending on the environment. This relies crucially on the speed of evolution and on how the intra-specific competition coefficient depends on the evolving trait. In general, equilibrium destabilization occurs when <math><mi>α</mi><mo>></mo><mn>2</mn></math>, when the speed of evolution is sufficiently slow. In this case, we conclude that evolution selects against complex dynamics. However, when evolution proceeds at a faster pace, destabilization can occur when <math><mi>α</mi><mo><</mo><mn>2</mn></math>. In this case, if the competition coefficient is highly sensitive to changes in the trait <i>v</i>, destabilization and complex dynamics occur. Moreover, destabilization may lead to either a period-doubling bifurcation, as in the non-evolutionary Ricker equation, or to a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"16 1","pages":"816-839"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10488189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Dynamics and control strategy for a delayed viral infection model. 延迟病毒感染模型的动力学与控制策略。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2028024
Suxia Zhang, Fei Li, Xiaxia Xu
{"title":"Dynamics and control strategy for a delayed viral infection model.","authors":"Suxia Zhang,&nbsp;Fei Li,&nbsp;Xiaxia Xu","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2028024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2028024","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we derive a delayed epidemic model to describe the characterization of cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL)-mediated immune response against virus infection. The stability of equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are analysed. Theoretical results reveal that if the basic reproductive number is greater than 1, the positive equilibrium may lose its stability and the bifurcated periodic solution occurs when time delay is taken as the bifurcation parameter. Furthermore, we investigate an optimal control problem according to the delayed model based on the available therapy for hepatitis B infection. With the aim of minimizing the infected cells and viral load with consideration for the treatment costs, the optimal solution is discussed analytically. For the case when periodic solution occurs, numerical simulations are performed to suggest the optimal therapeutic strategy and compare the model-predicted consequences.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"44-63"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39858448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Hopf bifurcation in delayed nutrient-microorganism model with network structure. 具有网络结构的延迟营养-微生物模型的Hopf分岔。
IF 2.2 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2021.2020915
Mengxin Chen, Qianqian Zheng, Ranchao Wu, Liping Chen
{"title":"Hopf bifurcation in delayed nutrient-microorganism model with network structure.","authors":"Mengxin Chen, Qianqian Zheng, Ranchao Wu, Liping Chen","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.2020915","DOIUrl":"10.1080/17513758.2021.2020915","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we introduce and deal with the delayed nutrient-microorganism model with a random network structure. By employing time delay <i>τ</i> as the main critical value of the Hopf bifurcation, we investigate the direction of the Hopf bifurcation of such a random network nutrient-microorganism model. Noticing that the results of the direction of the Hopf bifurcation in a random network model are rare, we thus try to use the method of multiple time scales (MTS) to derive amplitude equation and determine the direction of the Hopf bifurcation. It is showed that the delayed random network nutrient-microorganism model can exhibit a supercritical or subcritical Hopf bifurcation. Numerical experiments are performed to verify the validity of the theoretical analysis.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39797953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Uniqueness and stability of periodic solutions for an interactive wild and Wolbachia-infected male mosquito model. 野生和沃尔巴克氏体感染雄蚊交互模型周期解的唯一性和稳定性。
IF 2.8 4区 数学
Journal of Biological Dynamics Pub Date : 2022-12-01 Epub Date: 2022-02-15 DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2037760
Rong Yan, Qiwen Sun
{"title":"Uniqueness and stability of periodic solutions for an interactive wild and <i>Wolbachia</i>-infected male mosquito model.","authors":"Rong Yan,&nbsp;Qiwen Sun","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2022.2037760","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2037760","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We investigate a mosquito population suppression model, which includes the release of <i>Wolbachia</i>-infected males causing incomplete cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI). The model consists of two sub-equations by considering the density-dependent birth rate of wild mosquitoes. By assuming the release waiting period <i>T</i> is larger than the sexual lifespan <math><mrow><mover><mi>T</mi><mo>¯</mo></mover></mrow></math> of <i>Wolbachia</i>-infected males, we derive four thresholds: the CI intensity threshold <math><msubsup><mi>s</mi><mi>h</mi><mo>∗</mo></msubsup></math>, the release amount thresholds <math><msup><mi>g</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math> and <math><msup><mi>c</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math>, and the waiting period threshold <math><msup><mi>T</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math>. From a biological view, we assume <math><msub><mi>s</mi><mi>h</mi></msub><mo>></mo><msubsup><mi>s</mi><mi>h</mi><mo>∗</mo></msubsup></math> throughout the paper. When <math><msup><mi>g</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup><mo><</mo><mi>c</mi><mo><</mo><msup><mi>c</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math>, we prove the origin <math><msub><mi>E</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></math> is locally asymptotically stable iff <math><mi>T</mi><mo><</mo><msup><mi>T</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math>, and the model admits a unique <i>T</i>-periodic solution iff <math><mi>T</mi><mo>≥</mo><msup><mi>T</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math>, which is globally asymptotically stable. When <math><mi>c</mi><mo>≥</mo><msup><mi>c</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math>, we show the origin <math><msub><mi>E</mi><mn>0</mn></msub></math> is globally asymptotically stable iff <math><mi>T</mi><mo>≤</mo><msup><mi>T</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math>, and the model has a unique <i>T</i>-periodic solution iff <math><mi>T</mi><mo>></mo><msup><mi>T</mi><mo>∗</mo></msup></math>, which is globally asymptotically stable. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical simulations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":"254-276"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39801218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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