Determining reliable parameter estimates for within-host and within-vector models of Zika virus.

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce three within-host and one within-vector models of Zika virus. The within-host models are the target cell limited model, the target cell limited model with natural killer (NK) cells class, and a within-host-within-fetus model of a pregnant individual. The within-vector model includes the Zika virus dynamics in the midgut and salivary glands. The within-host models are not structurally identifiable with respect to data on viral load and NK cell counts. After rescaling, the scaled within-host models are locally structurally identifiable. The within-vector model is structurally identifiable with respect to viremia data in the midgut and salivary glands. Using Monte Carlo Simulations, we find that target cell limited model is practically identifiable from data on viremia; the target cell limited model with NK cell class is practically identifiable, except for the rescaled half saturation constant. The within-host-within-fetus model has all fetus-related parameters not practically identifiable without data on the fetus, as well as the rescaled half saturation constant is also not practically identifiable. The remaining parameters are practically identifiable. Finally we find that none of the parameters of the within-vector model is practically identifiable.