{"title":"喀麦隆霍乱感染的离散时间风险结构模型。","authors":"Eric Che, Abdul-Aziz Yakubu","doi":"10.1080/17513758.2021.1991497","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In a recent paper, Che et al. [5] used a continuous-time Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) model with risk structure to study cholera infections in Cameroon. However, the population and the reported cholera cases in Cameroon are censored at discrete-time annual intervals. In this paper, unlike in [5], we introduce a discrete-time risk-structured cholera model with no spatial structure. We use our discrete-time demographic equation to 'fit' the annual population of Cameroon. Furthermore, we use our fitted discrete-time model to capture the annually reported cholera cases from 1987 to 2004 and to study the impact of vaccination, treatment and improved sanitation on the number of cholera infections from 2004 to 2019. Our discrete-time cholera model confirms the results of the ODE model in [5]. However, our discrete-time model predicts a decrease in the number of cholera cases in a shorter period of cholera intervention (2004-2019) as compared to the ODE model's period of intervention (2004-2022).</p>","PeriodicalId":48809,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","volume":"15 1","pages":"523-562"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A discrete-time risk-structured model of cholera infections in Cameroon.\",\"authors\":\"Eric Che, Abdul-Aziz Yakubu\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/17513758.2021.1991497\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>In a recent paper, Che et al. [5] used a continuous-time Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) model with risk structure to study cholera infections in Cameroon. However, the population and the reported cholera cases in Cameroon are censored at discrete-time annual intervals. In this paper, unlike in [5], we introduce a discrete-time risk-structured cholera model with no spatial structure. We use our discrete-time demographic equation to 'fit' the annual population of Cameroon. Furthermore, we use our fitted discrete-time model to capture the annually reported cholera cases from 1987 to 2004 and to study the impact of vaccination, treatment and improved sanitation on the number of cholera infections from 2004 to 2019. Our discrete-time cholera model confirms the results of the ODE model in [5]. However, our discrete-time model predicts a decrease in the number of cholera cases in a shorter period of cholera intervention (2004-2019) as compared to the ODE model's period of intervention (2004-2022).</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48809,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Biological Dynamics\",\"volume\":\"15 1\",\"pages\":\"523-562\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Biological Dynamics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"99\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1991497\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Biological Dynamics","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1991497","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
A discrete-time risk-structured model of cholera infections in Cameroon.
In a recent paper, Che et al. [5] used a continuous-time Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) model with risk structure to study cholera infections in Cameroon. However, the population and the reported cholera cases in Cameroon are censored at discrete-time annual intervals. In this paper, unlike in [5], we introduce a discrete-time risk-structured cholera model with no spatial structure. We use our discrete-time demographic equation to 'fit' the annual population of Cameroon. Furthermore, we use our fitted discrete-time model to capture the annually reported cholera cases from 1987 to 2004 and to study the impact of vaccination, treatment and improved sanitation on the number of cholera infections from 2004 to 2019. Our discrete-time cholera model confirms the results of the ODE model in [5]. However, our discrete-time model predicts a decrease in the number of cholera cases in a shorter period of cholera intervention (2004-2019) as compared to the ODE model's period of intervention (2004-2022).
期刊介绍:
Journal of Biological Dynamics, an open access journal, publishes state of the art papers dealing with the analysis of dynamic models that arise from biological processes. The Journal focuses on dynamic phenomena at scales ranging from the level of individual organisms to that of populations, communities, and ecosystems in the fields of ecology and evolutionary biology, population dynamics, epidemiology, immunology, neuroscience, environmental science, and animal behavior. Papers in other areas are acceptable at the editors’ discretion. In addition to papers that analyze original mathematical models and develop new theories and analytic methods, the Journal welcomes papers that connect mathematical modeling and analysis to experimental and observational data. The Journal also publishes short notes, expository and review articles, book reviews and a section on open problems.