Journal of Global Health最新文献

{"title":"Mobile phone ownership among young adults in seven Southern African countries.","authors":"Abigail R Greenleaf, Monique Millington, Laura Robles-Torres, Fred Asiimwe, Huguette Diakabana, Sarah D Francis, Tendayi Mharadze, Jessica Justman","doi":"10.7189/jogh.15.04123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.15.04123","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In sub-Saharan Africa, mHealth interventions and phone-based data collection are increasingly popular but little is known about who can be reached by these programmes. We used national probability surveys to examine characteristics of youth (15-24 years) mobile phone owners in seven Southern African countries: Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys are cross-sectional, nationally representative household-based surveys conducted between November 2019 and February 2022. Data were analysed using multivariable logistic regression.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Eighty-four percent of youth in Eswatini, 83% in Botswana, 76% in Lesotho, 61% in Zimbabwe, 47% in Mozambique, 46% in Zambia and 32% in Malawi were mobile phone owners. In all countries, odds of phone ownership were higher amongst persons ages 20-24 (compared to 15-19) and those with secondary education or higher. In the three countries with ownership less than 50%, women had lower odds of owning a phone than men, and all wealth quintiles had higher odds of ownership than the lowest wealth quintile.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Mobile phone ownership was consistently higher among certain demographic groups. Public health practitioners employing mobile phones for youth health programmes in Sub-Saharan Africa may not reach the general youth population.</p>","PeriodicalId":48734,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Health","volume":"15 ","pages":"04123"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12006829/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144052907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of changes in price, volume and expenditure of PD-1 drugs following the government reimbursement negotiation in China: a multiple-treatment period interrupted time series analysis.","authors":"Hongbin Yi, Mengtian Cai, Xiaoxia Wei, Yingdan Cao, Liping Kuai, Dongyan Xu, Yue Qiu, Sheng Han","doi":"10.7189/jogh.15.04069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.15.04069","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Government reimbursement negotiation (GRN) is an important policy tool to increase the accessibility of drugs. In China, the impact of GRN implementation on programmed death-1 (PD-1) drugs price, procurement volume, and expenditure is unknown.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study used a multiple-treatment period interrupted time series design covering the period from the first-time recorded in Chinese Medical Economic Information database to 2022 to examine changes in hospital procurement price, volume and expenditure of PD-1 drugs after the implementation of GRN in China. Data were obtained from 698 public hospitals of 30 provinces in China.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of four PD-1 drugs have been selected in the National Reimbursement Drug List via GRN between March 2019 and 2022. After the implementation of the first-time GRN, the prices of all PD-1 drugs decreased significantly, with Camrelizumab experiencing the largest reduction in price and the largest increase in volume and expenditure. The Camrelizumab's price decreased by 1151.75 Chinese Yuan (CNY) (β₂ = -1151.75; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -1254.534, 1048.96), volume increased by 159.549 thousand defined daily doses (β₂ = 159.549; 95% CI = 119.12, 199.979) and expenditure increased by 11.172 million CNY (β₂ = 11.172; 95% CI = 1.653, 20.692). Following the implementation of the second-time of GRN, Sintilimab showed the largest decrease in price, with price decreased by 164.099 CNY (β₄ = -164.099; 95% CI = -171.867, 156.331), Tislelizumab had the largest increase in volume and expenditure, with the volume increased by 102.185 thousand defined daily doses (β₄ = 102.185; 95% CI = 47.862, 156.509) and expenditure increased by 4.119 million CNY (β₄ = 4.119; 95% CI = -3.808, 12.047).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The GRN policy improved the accessibility and affordability of PD-1 drugs. Health insurance policy-makers need to consider the legitimate interests of PD-1 drug manufacturers while ensuring the sustainability of the basic health insurance fund.</p>","PeriodicalId":48734,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Health","volume":"15 ","pages":"04069"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12006830/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144056370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unravelling behavioural contributions to IBS risk: evidence from univariate and multivariate Mendelian randomisation.","authors":"Hongyu Chu, Yumin Zhong, Jiayi Zhao, Yuezhan Shan, Xuedong Fang","doi":"10.7189/jogh.15.04112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.15.04112","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>While numerous studies have investigated the link between behavioural factors and irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), the causal relationships remain unresolved. This study applied Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis to assess the causal impact of specific behavioural factors on IBS risk.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Bidirectional Mendelian randomisation analysis was employed to evaluate the causal relationships between behavioural factors and IBS risk. A genome-wide significance threshold (P < 5e^-6) was applied to identify associations between genetic variants and behaviour-related traits, ensuring robust selection of instrumental variables for evaluating potential causal effects. Genetic correlations with IBS were sourced from extensive genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Various statistical methods were applied to estimate the causal effects.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>This study employed both univariate and multivariate Mendelian randomisation analyses to investigate the causal relationships between specific behavioural factors and the risk of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). The results indicated that body mass index (BMI) (odds ratio (OR) = 1.074; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.025-1.125, P = 0.031), insomnia (OR = 1.986; 95% CI = 1.652-2.389, P < 0.001), duration of mobile phone use (OR = 1.120; 95% CI = 1.018-1.232, P = 0.021), and weekly mobile phone usage time in the past three months (OR = 1.148; 95% CI = 1.016-1.298, P = 0.021,) were associated with an increased risk of IBS. In contrast, usual walking speed (OR = 0.756; 95% CI = 0.621-0.920, P < 0.001), non-smoking status (OR = 0.779; 95% CI = 0.645-0.941, P < 0.001), and weekly alcohol consumption (OR = 0.862; 95% CI = 0.743-0.999, P = 0.015) were associated with a reduced risk of IBS. Furthermore, in the multivariate Mendelian randomisation analysis, no statistically significant causal associations were found for BMI, usual walking pace, length of mobile phone use, and smoking status. Weekly mobile phone usage time in the past three months (OR = 1.439; 95% CI = 1.126-1.840, P = 0.0037,) and insomnia (OR = 1.468; 95% CI = 1.076-2.003, P = 0.0156) were identified as risk factors, while weekly alcohol intake (OR = 0.813; 95% CI = 0.677-0.975, P = 0.0257) acted as a protective factor.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study identified BMI, insomnia, duration of mobile phone use, and weekly mobile phone usage time in the past three months as risk factors for IBS. In contrast, weekly alcohol consumption, usual walking pace, and non-smoking status were observed as protective factors. Additionally, in multivariable analysis, weekly mobile phone use, insomnia, and weekly alcohol consumption showed a direct influence on IBS risk when considered simultaneously.</p>","PeriodicalId":48734,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Health","volume":"15 ","pages":"04112"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11987576/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144064393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparison of excess deaths and laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths during a large Omicron epidemic in 2022 in Hong Kong.","authors":"Hualei Xin, Alexandra H T Law, Justin K Cheung, Yun Lin, Peng Wu, Zhongjie Li, Benjamin J Cowling, Weizhong Yang, Jessica Y Wong","doi":"10.7189/jogh.15.04105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.15.04105","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Using an elimination strategy, Hong Kong was able to minimise COVID-19 mortality in 2020 and 2021, but a large epidemic caused by the Omicron variant occurred in 2022. We aimed to estimate the overall, age-, sex-, epidemic period- and cause-specific excess mortality in 2022 in Hong Kong and compare excess mortality to laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 mortality.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used negative binomial regression analysis to model time series of weekly all-cause and cause-specific deaths from 2010 to 2021 to predict the weekly number of deaths in 2022 against counterfactual baselines projected from the trends in the absence of a pandemic. The estimated excess deaths were compared with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths overall and by age and epidemic period.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We estimated that there were 13 500 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 13 400, 13 600) excess deaths in 2022, which was slightly higher than the 12 228 deaths recorded with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, with the majority of the excess deaths and laboratory-confirmed deaths occurring among older adults. The increased number of excess deaths over laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths was most substantial from February to April 2022 (a difference of 847 deaths), when the most prominent Omicron wave peaked. Most of the excess deaths (78%) were from respiratory causes, while 10% were from cardiovascular causes. A slight reduction in malignant neoplasm mortality was identified among older adults in 2022.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>A substantial increase in population mortality was identified in 2022 in Hong Kong, slightly larger than the laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Deaths from COVID-19 may have displaced some deaths that would otherwise have occurred due to other causes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48734,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Health","volume":"15 ","pages":"04105"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11987577/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144026667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the cost of illness of RSV and non-RSV acute respiratory infections in Nepali children.","authors":"Neele Rave, Arun K Sharma, Ram H Chapagain, Rupesh Shrestha, An Nguyen, Clint Pecenka, Farina L Shaaban, Prakash Joshi, Louis J Bont","doi":"10.7189/jogh.15.04092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.15.04092","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) bear the greatest burden of the global respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) morbidity and mortality, but lack cost data to evaluate the health-economic impact of RSV burden on families, the healthcare system, and society. This prospective observational study was performed by the RSV GOLD III - Health Economic Research Group and estimated the costs associated with RSV illness in Nepal.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We collected healthcare resource utilisation data from children <2 years old fulfilling the World Health Organization (severe) acute respiratory infections ((S)ARI) case definition over one local respiratory season (July to November 2023) at two public hospitals in Nepal. We used hospital records and caregiver interviews to collect direct medical, direct non-medical, and indirect cost data to generate total per-patient costs.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We included 730 patients with a mean age of 6.8 (standard deviation = 5.8) months. RSV infection was confirmed in 72.6% of the inpatients (n/N = 469/646) with SARI. The mean total cost per RSV episode was USD 43 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 25-62) for non-severe, USD 312 (95% CI = 293-332) for severe, and USD 664 (95% CI = 381-947) for life-threatened patients. Of the total costs, the healthcare system incurred USD 16 (36.3%), USD 58 (18.6%), and USD 57 (8.6%) in each category of illness. Household-level costs were 1.4% (USD 19) of the country's gross domestic product per capita for non-severe, 15.1% (USD 200) for severe, and 35.7% (USD 472) for life-threatened patients, with costs for inpatients often reaching catastrophic levels.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Our findings show a significant healthcare and economic burden of RSV illness in Nepal, highlighting the need to prioritise RSV prevention strategies. Our cost burden data can inform the modelling of costs and benefits of future RSV interventions in Nepal.</p>","PeriodicalId":48734,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Health","volume":"15 ","pages":"04092"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11986276/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143993029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effective coverage for maternal health: operationalising effective coverage cascades for antenatal care and nutrition interventions for pregnant women in seven low- and middle-income countries.","authors":"Ashley Sheffel, Emily Carter, Rebecca Heidkamp, Aniqa Tasnim Hossain, Joanne Katz, Sunny Kim, Tsering Pema Lama, Tanya Marchant, Jamie Perin, Jennifer Requejo, Shelley Walton, Melinda K Munos","doi":"10.7189/jogh.15.04041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.15.04041","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Efforts to improve maternal health have focused on measuring health and nutrition service coverage. Despite improvements in service coverage, maternal mortality rates remain high. This suggests that coverage indicators alone do not fully capture the quality of care and may overestimate the health benefits of a service. Effective coverage (EC) cascades have been proposed as an approach to capture service quality within population-based coverage measures, but the proposed maternal health EC cascades have not been operationalised. This study aims to operationalise the effective coverage cascades for antenatal care (ANC) and maternal nutrition services using existing data from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used household surveys and health facility assessments from seven LMICs to estimate EC cascades for ANC and maternal nutrition services provided during ANC visits. We developed theoretical coverage cascades, defined health facility readiness and provision/experience of care scores and linked the facility-based scores to household survey data based on geographic domain and facility type. We then estimated the coverage cascade steps for each service by country.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Service contact coverage for at least one ANC visit (ANC1) was high, ranging from 80% in Bangladesh to 99% in Sierra Leone. However, there was a substantial drop in coverage from service contact to readiness-adjusted coverage, and a further drop to quality-adjusted coverage for all countries. For ANC1, from service contact to quality-adjusted coverage, there was an average net decline of 52 percentage points. For ANC1 maternal nutrition services, there was an average net decline of 48 percentage points from service contact to quality-adjusted coverage. This pattern persisted across cascades. Further exploration revealed that gaps in service readiness including lack of provider training, and gaps in provision/experience of care such as limited nutrition counselling were core contributors to the drops in coverage observed.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The cascade approach provided useful summary measures that identified major barriers to EC. However, detailed measures underlying the steps of the cascade are likely needed to support evidence-based decision-making with more actionable information. This analysis highlights the importance of understanding bottlenecks in achieving health outcomes and the inter-connectedness of service access and service quality to improve health in LMICs.</p>","PeriodicalId":48734,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Health","volume":"15 ","pages":"04041"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11987578/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143993030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating the economic burden of respiratory syncytial virus infection among children <2 years old receiving care in Maputo, Mozambique.","authors":"Neele Rave, Tufária Mussá, An Nguyen, Clint Pecenka, Farina L Shaaban, Louis J Bont","doi":"10.7189/jogh.15.04076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.15.04076","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Data on costs of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in low- and lower-middle-income countries are urgently needed to inform the introduction of recently developed vaccines. We estimated the costs of lower respiratory tract infections associated with RSV infection in Mozambique.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We conducted a prospective cohort study to assess household and societal costs of RSV infection in children <2 years old who sought care in a referral hospital or a primary health centre in Mozambique during one local RSV season (February to August 2023). We used molecular point-of-care testing to confirm RSV status. We collected direct medical and non-medical costs and indirect cost data from hospital records and patient-level questionnaires at the initial visit and 2-4 weeks post-discharge.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We recruited 544 children; 52.6% were girls and the median age was 9.3 months. From the sample, 286 children from the outpatient department, 233 from the paediatric wards, and 25 from the intensive care unit (ICU). RSV was confirmed in 42 (14.7%) outpatients, 111 (47.6%) inpatients, and 6 (24.0%) ICU cases. The mean total costs associated with RSV were USD 43 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 11-76) for outpatients, USD 612 (95% CI = 544-680) for inpatients, and USD 1161 (95% CI = 837-1485) for ICU cases. The government covered 16.9%, 89.9%, and 80.0% of overall societal costs for outpatients, inpatients, and ICU patients, respectively. The average household out-of-pocket costs for life-threatened RSV cases were more than 1.5 times the monthly minimum wage of USD 91, causing a high financial burden on families in Mozambique.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>RSV infection represents a significant healthcare and economic burden in children <2 years old. Our results provide input for cost-effectiveness analyses and informed decision-making when considering RSV immunisation in Mozambique.</p>","PeriodicalId":48734,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Health","volume":"15 ","pages":"04076"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11986275/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143993691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A qualitative study of abortion decision-making trajectories among pregnant women at their first antenatal care visit in Kampala, Uganda.","authors":"Blake Erhardt-Ohren, Alison M El Ayadi, Hadija Nalubwama, Carol S Camlin, Dilys Walker, Josaphat Byamugisha, Alexander C Tsai, Umar Senoga, Paul J Krezanoski, Cynthia C Harper, Alison B Comfort","doi":"10.7189/jogh.15.04125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.15.04125","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In Uganda, only about half of women who want to avoid pregnancy are using modern contraceptives, leading to high numbers of unintended pregnancies and elevated maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality. In this study, we aimed to learn more about women's abortion decision-making before continuing to carry a pregnancy.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We utilised a qualitative study design and interviewed 31 purposively selected single and partnered pregnant women aged ≥18 years at their first antenatal care visit at Kawempe National Referral Hospital in Kampala, Uganda. We conducted the interviews in Luganda or English, transcribed them, and then translated them into English, as needed, for analysis. We analysed the data using thematic analysis. Deductive codes were based on social networks, social support, and health behaviour theories, and inductive codes were derived from interview transcripts.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Almost half of the study participants (n = 13) considered an induced abortion before deciding to continue carrying their pregnancy. The most commonly stated reasons they considered abortion included anticipated interruptions to work and education, exhaustion related to child-rearing, and lack of social support. Other participants (n = 9) reported not considering abortion due to anticipated social support for their pregnancy, concerns about abortion-related morbidity and mortality, late confirmation of pregnancy, and religious beliefs. No participants discussed Uganda's restrictive abortion policies as a reason not to consider abortion.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Our results point to opportunities for continued reproductive health education and improved access to reproductive health services to allow pregnant women to meet their reproductive needs, seek out family planning, antenatal care, and safe abortion services when desired, and create support networks for pregnant women.</p>","PeriodicalId":48734,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Health","volume":"15 ","pages":"04125"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11984614/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144020499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The nonlinear impact of air pollutants and solar radiation exposure on the risk of hospitalisation for pterygium among adults in Shanghai, China: a time series analysis.","authors":"Hongya Zeng, Yue Tan, Tong Lin, Lan Gong","doi":"10.7189/jogh.15.04110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.15.04110","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>In recent years, many studies have focused on the effects of air pollution on ocular surface health. However, there is currently little research on the relationship between pterygium and air pollution. We aimed to investigate the effects of air pollutants and solar radiation on the progression of pterygium in adults through a 5-year time series analysis.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>After collecting the meteorological data and clinical visits for pterygium in Shanghai, China from 2017 to 2023, we established a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for statistical analysis. We also conducted subgroup analysis according to age and sex to investigate the impact of risk factors on different populations.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>This cohort included a total of 57 211 cases. We found that solar radiation, particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometre (μm) (PM_2.5), ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) all increased the risk of outpatient treatment of pterygium within a certain concentration range. Among them, PM_2.5 and solar radiation have the most significant lag effects. The relative risk (RR) value was highest when the concentration of PM_2.5 reach the peak value at a lag time of 13 days. Subgroup analysis showed that women and people aged 55 to 65 years were more susceptible to extremely high concentrations of PM_2.5.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Our results suggested that in addition to solar radiation, which is recognized as a risk factor for pterygium, PM_2.5 exposure also seems to be related with an increase in the risk of pterygium. More targeted prevention and early interventions strategies remain to be studied.</p>","PeriodicalId":48734,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Health","volume":"15 ","pages":"04110"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11987575/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144042581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Infectious disease forecasting to support public health: use of readily available methods to predict malaria and diarrhoeal diseases in Mozambique.","authors":"Rami Yaari, Marta Galanti, Rodrigo Zepeda-Tello, Sergio Chicumbe, Ilesh Jani, Annette Cassy, Ivalda Macicame, Naisa Manafe, Shannon M Farley, Wafaa M El-Sadr, Jeffrey Shaman","doi":"10.7189/jogh.15.04114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.15.04114","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Mozambique faces a high burden of infectious diseases but currently has limited capacity for forecasting disease incidence. Recent improvements in disease surveillance through the National Monitoring and Evaluation System now provide weekly reports of disease incidence across the country's districts. This study focuses on using these records, specifically for malaria and diarrhoeal diseases, which together account for approximately 40% of deaths among children under five, to develop statistical forecasts and evaluate their accuracy.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We utilised a Python library for time series forecasting called Darts, which includes a variety of statistical forecasting models. Three models were selected for this analysis: Exponential Smoothing (a classical statistical model), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (a machine-learning model), and Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series (a neural network-based model). Retrospective forecasts were generated and compared across multiple forecast horizons. We evaluated both point and probabilistic forecast accuracy for individual models and two types of model ensembles, comparing the results to forecasts based on historical expectance.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>All models consistently outperformed forecasts based on historical expectance for both malaria and diarrhoeal disease across forecast horizons of up to eight weeks, with comparable or better performance at 16 weeks. The most accurate forecasts were achieved using a weighted ensemble of the models.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study highlights the potential of using a readily available tool for generating accurate disease forecasts. It represents a step toward scalable and accessible forecasting solutions that can enhance disease surveillance and public health responses, not only in Mozambique but also in other low- and middle-income countries with similar challenges.</p>","PeriodicalId":48734,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Health","volume":"15 ","pages":"04114"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11997905/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144065011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}