Sustainable Cities and Society最新文献_第3页

A new perspective to assess urban heat islands by incorporating both canopy and boundary layer air temperature from the view of satellite remote sensing

IF 10.5 1区工程技术

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106315

Min Wang , Xiaodong Wang , Qingzu Luan , Xinliang Xu

{"title":"A new perspective to assess urban heat islands by incorporating both canopy and boundary layer air temperature from the view of satellite remote sensing","authors":"Min Wang , Xiaodong Wang , Qingzu Luan , Xinliang Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106315","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106315","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With rapid urbanization, the urban heat island (UHI) effect intensifies, but the urban boundary layer heat island (UHI<sub>UBL</sub>) remains a complex and underexplored phenomenon. This study proposes a novel method to reconstruct and downscale atmospheric temperature profile (DATP) products with 1 km spatial resolution, covering 79 layers from 2 m to 3000 m in Beijing from 2003 to 2019. We introduce the \"vertical UHI intensity index (VUHII),\" which uses height-weighted summation to evaluate UHI intensity, providing a detailed understanding of UHI<sub>UBL</sub>'s spatiotemporal distribution. Results show that UHI<sub>UBL</sub> exhibits distinct seasonal and diurnal patterns compared to surface and canopy UHI. UHI<sub>UBL</sub> intensity is higher in downwind suburban areas with stronger daytime values, while city center nighttime intensity is weaker. The height at which UHI effect disappears varies seasonally between 200 m and 2100 m. UHI<sub>UBL</sub> shows a declining trend both day and night in the Plain, while in the city center, it increases at night. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of our method and highlight the importance of understanding UHI<sub>UBL</sub> for urban sustainability, particularly in developing climate adaptation strategies and optimizing urban planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48659,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Cities and Society","volume":"125 ","pages":"Article 106315"},"PeriodicalIF":10.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143739408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Urbanization significantly impacts the long-term and inner-outer changes in urban vegetation phenology

IF 10.5 1区工程技术

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106323

Guangliang Jia , Chunlin Li , Yuanman Hu , Xin Chen , Wei Chen , Zhibin Zhang

{"title":"Urbanization significantly impacts the long-term and inner-outer changes in urban vegetation phenology","authors":"Guangliang Jia , Chunlin Li , Yuanman Hu , Xin Chen , Wei Chen , Zhibin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106323","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106323","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Clarifying the spatio-temporal characteristics of urban vegetation phenology (UVP) is essential for understanding the potential effects of future climate change on vegetation growth. However, current studies lack quantitative analysis of urbanization impacts on spatio-temporal characteristics in UVP. This study measured UVP (including start, end and length of the growing season: SOS, EOS and GSL) changes in both long-term (from 2003 to 2020) and inner-outer city (between inner and outer city areas) in 365 Chinese cities using multi-source data. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and accumulated local effect models were used to identify the key drivers and their changing patterns. The results indicated that UVP changed more consistently in inner-outer changes than in long-term changes. SOS in 75 % of cities advanced by -15.96±10.30 days in long-term changes, while GSL and EOS in 74 % and 72 % of cities extended by 23.89±13.81 days and delayed by 11.93±8.99 days, respectively. SOS in 80 % of cities advanced in inner-outer changes (-12.81±9.33 days), and GSL and EOS in 85 % and 73 % of cities extended and delayed (18.28±13.17 and 10.91±7.59 days), respectively. Long-term and inner-outer changes in UVP showed significant differences across city sizes. In the climate zones from south to north, there was a clear gradient in UVP in long-term changes, but little change in UVP in inner-outer changes. SHAP analyses revealed that temperature is the most important factor affecting UVP, followed by night lighting, radiation, and these drivers showed complex non-linear relationships with UVP. This study clarified the spatio-temporal characteristics of UVP, which contributed to a better understanding of the carbon sink potential of urban vegetation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48659,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Cities and Society","volume":"124 ","pages":"Article 106323"},"PeriodicalIF":10.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143724933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The spillover effects of digital technology innovation on carbon emissions in urban agglomerations: A perspective based on manufacturing investment networks and geospatial spillovers

IF 10.5 1区工程技术

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106321

Shuoshuo Li , Ziyuan Zhang , Chien-Chiang Lee

{"title":"The spillover effects of digital technology innovation on carbon emissions in urban agglomerations: A perspective based on manufacturing investment networks and geospatial spillovers","authors":"Shuoshuo Li , Ziyuan Zhang , Chien-Chiang Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106321","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106321","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the intensifying impacts of global climate change, the importance of advancing carbon governance in urban agglomerations cannot be overstated. Digital technology innovations (DTI) have a dual impact on carbon emissions (CE), particularly amid the growing trend of networked urban agglomerations and the uncertain influence of geospatial spillovers. Based on the socio-economic data and remote sensing interpretation data of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (MRYRUA) from 2000 to 2020, this study portrays the manufacturing investment network of the urban agglomeration. It further examines the direct and spillover effects of DTI on CE within urban agglomeration, focusing on the manufacturing investment network and geospatial spillover perspectives. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, the investment in manufacturing in MRYRUA gradually shifted from intra-urban to inter-urban connections, with the proportion of inter-urban investment connections reaching 62.96% in 2020. DTI significantly suppresses CE, with a 0.182 percent reduction in CE for every 1% increase in DTI. From the perspective of geospatial spillovers, DTI significantly increases CE in neighboring regions. Similarly, from the manufacturing investment network perspective, it notably raises CE in the regions receiving investments. Under the geospatial and network externality frameworks, the direct emission reduction effects of DTI outweigh its spillover-driven emission increases by factors of 2.07 and 1.59 respectively, resulting in an aggregate net carbon reduction effect across the urban agglomeration. The direct and spatial spillover effects of DTI on CE exhibit heightened significance in small and medium-sized cities and the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48659,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Cities and Society","volume":"124 ","pages":"Article 106321"},"PeriodicalIF":10.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143684324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Marginal abatement cost of urban emissions under climate policy: Assessment and projection for China's 2030 climate target

IF 10.5 1区工程技术

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106319

Yixuan Zhang , Xiangjie Zhu , Di Liu , Yuli Shan , Yi Wu

{"title":"Marginal abatement cost of urban emissions under climate policy: Assessment and projection for China's 2030 climate target","authors":"Yixuan Zhang , Xiangjie Zhu , Di Liu , Yuli Shan , Yi Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106319","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106319","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates the effectiveness of Low-Carbon City Pilot programme and predicts its future trajectory through 2030, using the marginal abatement cost of CO<sub>2</sub> as the outcome indicator to address policy anticipation effects. Drawing on Chinese city-level panel data (2006–2019), we estimate and forecast marginal abatement cost through a hybrid approach combining machine learning regression, autoregressive integrated moving average and quadratic directional distance function. A Difference-in-Differences model is used to assess the policy's impact, while a cost-intensity matrix is employed to explore cities’ low-carbon transition stages and pathways to 2030. The results reveal that Low-Carbon City Pilot programme significantly increased the marginal abatement cost of CO<sub>2</sub> in pilot cities, driven by green technology innovation and industrial structure upgrading. These effects are more pronounced in developed, eastern, non-resource-based and non-industrial cities. Under the carbon peaking target, most cities will experience rising abatement costs, with widening inter-city divergence. By 2030, fewer than one-fifth of cities will achieve low-carbon transition, while the majority will remain in mid- or early-transition phrases. We recommend exploring emission reduction potential in central, western, and resource-based cities, addressing transition barriers, and formulating city-specific policies that account for unique underlying costs while enhancing synergies to avoid carbon leakage and worsening climate inequality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48659,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Cities and Society","volume":"124 ","pages":"Article 106319"},"PeriodicalIF":10.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143684192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

From complex networks to urban heat island governance: Structural analysis and intervention in xiamen island's heat island network

IF 10.5 1区工程技术

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106320

Huanjia Cui , Yu Wang , Qiang Yu , Jikai Zhao , Weijie Sun , Xinyu Yang , Bowen Chi , Ji Long , Buyanbaatar Avirmed

{"title":"From complex networks to urban heat island governance: Structural analysis and intervention in xiamen island's heat island network","authors":"Huanjia Cui , Yu Wang , Qiang Yu , Jikai Zhao , Weijie Sun , Xinyu Yang , Bowen Chi , Ji Long , Buyanbaatar Avirmed","doi":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106320","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106320","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid urbanization, under global warming, has intensified the urban heat island effect, causing significant environmental and social challenges. Many studies propose governance measures for individual landscape patches, but their effectiveness remains limited. A global perspective is essential for systematically analyzing urban heat environments. This study uses Xiamen Island as a case study and, based on the \"source-sink\" landscape theory, applies a reverse-thinking approach to construct urban heat island network that needs to be disrupted. By introducing complex network theory and aligning it with urban needs, a novel framework for optimizing and governing the global heat environment is proposed. The results show that: (1) Xiamen Island has 86 urban heat island sources and 202 heat transfer corridors; (2) 7 potential heat island sources were identified through pinch point analysis; (3) Based on barrier point analysis, 23 heat transfer barriers and 19 priority corridors for governance were found; (4) 6 potential heat transfer corridors were identified using complex network theory and LST data; (5) Robustness analysis of the urban heat island network revealed a governance strategy prioritizing closeness centrality, identifying 15 sources for prioritized governance. This study provides practical new approaches and strategies for comprehensive governance of urban heat environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48659,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Cities and Society","volume":"124 ","pages":"Article 106320"},"PeriodicalIF":10.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143684320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modelling pavement watering effects on urban heat mitigation with a fast urban climate model

IF 10.5 1区工程技术

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106313

Jixuan Chen , Peter M. Bach , João P. Leitão

{"title":"Modelling pavement watering effects on urban heat mitigation with a fast urban climate model","authors":"Jixuan Chen , Peter M. Bach , João P. Leitão","doi":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106313","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106313","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pavement watering is considered as a possible solution to mitigate urban heat and adapt urban environments to climate change. Yet, modelling tools to support the planning of such practices, especially at larger scales, are scarce. This study presents the integration of pavement watering dynamics into an existing urban climate model. The proposed new model was evaluated against measurements as well as modelling data with a good agreement. We then tested our integrated approach with different input information to ensure the robustness and reliability of its results, showing that a reduction of 15 °C in surface temperature and up to 2 °C in air temperature can be induced by wetting impervious pavements. Results also provide some first insights into possible best practices for pavement watering and surface and air temperatures reduction. Finally, a city-scale simulation demonstrated the potential impact of scaling up the pavement watering simulation process. The proposed model opens up new opportunities for further understanding of the cooling impact and water demand of pavement watering practices, offering new approaches to smart planning of heat mitigation measures for more liveable cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48659,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Cities and Society","volume":"124 ","pages":"Article 106313"},"PeriodicalIF":10.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143698036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sustainable location selection for photovoltaic waste recycling centers: An extended MULTIMOORA approach

IF 10.5 1区工程技术

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106316

Xingya Zhang, Jing Li, Nan Wang

{"title":"Sustainable location selection for photovoltaic waste recycling centers: An extended MULTIMOORA approach","authors":"Xingya Zhang, Jing Li, Nan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106316","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106316","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Establishing a recycling system is of great significance for China to cope with the challenges of photovoltaic (PV) waste and promote the sustainable development of cities and society. Location selection of PV waste recycling centers (PVRCs) is one of the critical steps, which directly affects the transportation cost and environmental impact during the PV waste recycling process. PVRCs location selection is a complex multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem, requiring considering numerous factors such as economic cost, resources, environmental impact, etc. This study constructs a comprehensive PVRCs location selection framework. First, we establish a sustainable location assessment criteria system for PVRCs that includes 11 criteria involving economic, environment and social aspects. Then, we propose an extended MULTIMOORA method based on rough-Z numbers to evaluate the potential PVRC locations, which combines the merit of rough Z-numbers in characterizing the information reliability and uncertainty inherent in expert evaluations and the advantage of MULTIMOORA approach in accurately ranking PVRCs locations. Finally, the proposed framework is applied to a real case to verify its effectiveness, providing valuable technical support for enterprises to avoid resource and economic loss.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48659,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Cities and Society","volume":"124 ","pages":"Article 106316"},"PeriodicalIF":10.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143684190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unraveling the renewal priority of urban heritage communities via macro-micro dimensional assessment- A case study of Nanjing City, China

IF 10.5 1区工程技术

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106317

Xiaoxin Zhao , Jinliu Chen , Jiayi Li , Haoqi Wang , Xinyu Zhang , Fangshu Yu

{"title":"Unraveling the renewal priority of urban heritage communities via macro-micro dimensional assessment- A case study of Nanjing City, China","authors":"Xiaoxin Zhao , Jinliu Chen , Jiayi Li , Haoqi Wang , Xinyu Zhang , Fangshu Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106317","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106317","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amidst rapid global urbanization, the resultant community decline has exacerbated issues such as social segregation, resource misallocation, and neighborhood alienation. In particular, heritage communities face unique challenges as standardized, project-based renewals frequently neglect their cultural and historical attributes, thereby intensifying mismatches in renewal decision-making. To address these challenges, this study proposes a multidimensional evaluation of heritage communities using the Social-spatial Service Index (SSI) to define renewal priority and fill gaps in current evaluation mechanisms. Focusing on Nanjing in China, the research conducts a macro-level GIS assessment of 2153 communities using a Bayesian Best-Worst Model and a micro-level evaluation of 10 typical heritage communities using the Analytic Hierarchy Process, comparing results across different scales. The dual-scale approach reveals that: (1) Despite heterogeneous measurement factors, the SSI delivers consistent results across macro and micro levels, demonstrating its robustness. (2) Community renewal priority decreases with distance from the urban core, but heritage communities exhibit higher renewal priority, emphasizing the unique value of preserving cultural heritage. (3) It underscores the importance of cultural and economic factors in renewal, validating its effectiveness in guiding context-sensitive strategies. These insights underscore the necessity of tailored renewal strategies that respect cultural contexts and provide actionable insights for urban policy and planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48659,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Cities and Society","volume":"124 ","pages":"Article 106317"},"PeriodicalIF":10.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143683818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mitigating urban heat island effects through leadership in energy and environmental design evaluation and blue-green infrastructure: Applying the hazard capacity factor design model for urban thermal resilience

IF 10.5 1区工程技术

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106306

Jaekyoung Kim , Gunwon Lee , Samuel Park , Junsuk Kang

{"title":"Mitigating urban heat island effects through leadership in energy and environmental design evaluation and blue-green infrastructure: Applying the hazard capacity factor design model for urban thermal resilience","authors":"Jaekyoung Kim , Gunwon Lee , Samuel Park , Junsuk Kang","doi":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106306","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106306","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aimed to evaluate urban heat island (UHI) mitigation strategies by applying the Hazard Capacity Factor Design (HCFD) model, which was initially developed for urban flooding, to assess the effectiveness of blue-green infrastructure in enhancing urban resilience to extreme heat. UHIs exacerbate the impacts of climate change, particularly in densely populated areas with limited green spaces. This study utilized computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations along with sensor data from Seongdong-gu, Seoul, to evaluate climate adaptation strategies, including cooling fog and green infrastructure, both individually and in combination. The results indicate that the HCFD model can effectively assess urban thermal resilience, with <em>R</em>² values exceeding 0.9 for all monitoring points. The combination of cooling fog and green infrastructure showed significant interaction effects, with a conservative interaction effect of approximately 3.97°C cooling at a wind speed of 1 m/s. These findings underscore the potential of the HCFD model to inform data-driven urban planning and improve climate adaptation strategies, thereby contributing to the development of resilient urban environments. Future research should explore the broader applicability of the HCFD model to other urban climate risks and assess the long-term impacts of integrated adaptation measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48659,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Cities and Society","volume":"124 ","pages":"Article 106306"},"PeriodicalIF":10.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143684323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dual pathways of carbon neutrality in urban green spaces: assessment and regulatory strategies

IF 10.5 1区工程技术

Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106311

Yuan Feng , Chenyu Fang , Xiaoli Jia , Peihao Song , Lin Zhou , Xin Xu , Kun Wang , Ruizhen He , Nan Guo , Shidong Ge

{"title":"Dual pathways of carbon neutrality in urban green spaces: assessment and regulatory strategies","authors":"Yuan Feng , Chenyu Fang , Xiaoli Jia , Peihao Song , Lin Zhou , Xin Xu , Kun Wang , Ruizhen He , Nan Guo , Shidong Ge","doi":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106311","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.scs.2025.106311","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban green spaces (UGSs), essential semi-natural environments, play a crucial role in carbon sequestration and emission reduction by mitigating urban heat. Yet, their contribution to indirect carbon reduction has often been overlooked. This study introduces a novel dual-pathway framework to comprehensively assess the carbon neutrality potential of UGSs across various spatial scales in Xi'an from 2000 to 2020, while identifying key influencing factors. Findings reveal an average annual carbon neutrality capacity of 1.44 kg·C·m<sup>−2</sup>·yr<sup>−1</sup>, rising from -0.54 kg·C·m<sup>−2</sup>·yr<sup>−1</sup> during 2000–2005 to 1.97 kg·C·m<sup>−2</sup>·yr<sup>−1</sup> in 2015–2020. Indirect carbon reduction through heat mitigation significantly surpassed direct sequestration, averaging 1.16 kg·C·m<sup>−2</sup>·yr<sup>−1</sup> versus 0.27 kg·C·m<sup>−2</sup>·yr<sup>−1</sup>. Sequestration variations were largely influenced by developmental stages, while carbon reduction was shaped by spatial characteristics. Using 18 socio-economic, environmental, and spatial landscape factors, we applied correlation analysis, machine learning regression, and partial dependence analysis. Results indicate socio-economic factors had the strongest impact on carbon neutrality, followed by environmental, spatial, and landscape factors. Adjusting key drivers by 10 % and 25 % with random forest models demonstrated potential increases in carbon neutrality by 18.1 % and 41 %, respectively. These insights support UGS management strategies to boost carbon neutrality through targeted urban planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48659,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Cities and Society","volume":"125 ","pages":"Article 106311"},"PeriodicalIF":10.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143739406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0