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Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves CMIP6模式对北极-西伯利亚平原遥相关对东亚热浪影响的性能评价
IF 6.9 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100867
Jeong-Hun Kim , Maeng-Ki Kim , Joowan Kim , Jiwoo Lee , Yu Kosaka
{"title":"Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves","authors":"Jeong-Hun Kim ,&nbsp;Maeng-Ki Kim ,&nbsp;Joowan Kim ,&nbsp;Jiwoo Lee ,&nbsp;Yu Kosaka","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100867","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100867","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100867"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A new class of climate hazard metrics and its demonstration: revealing a ten-fold increase of extreme heat over Europe 一种新的气候危害指标及其论证:揭示了欧洲极端高温的十倍增长
IF 6.9 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100855
Gottfried Kirchengast , Stephanie J. Haas , Jürgen Fuchsberger
{"title":"A new class of climate hazard metrics and its demonstration: revealing a ten-fold increase of extreme heat over Europe","authors":"Gottfried Kirchengast ,&nbsp;Stephanie J. Haas ,&nbsp;Jürgen Fuchsberger","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100855","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100855","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Weather and climate extremes such as heatwaves are crucial climate hazards to people and ecosystems worldwide. In any region, climate change may alter their characteristics in complex ways so that a rigorous and holistic quantification of the extremity of such events remains a challenge, impeding also uses by climate change impact, attribution, litigation and other communities. Here we introduce a new class of threshold-exceedance-amount metrics that consistently track changes in event frequency, duration, magnitude, area, and timing aspects like daily exposure and seasonal shift—as separate metrics, partially compound (e.g., average event severity), and as compound total events extremity (TEX). Building on daily temperature datasets over 1961 to 2024, we applied the new metrics to extreme heat events at local-to country-scale (example Austria) and across Europe, demonstrating their utility through this use. Comparing the recent period 2010–2024 to the reference period 1961–1990, we reveal amplification factors of around 10 [5 to 25] in the TEX of extreme heat over Austrian and most central and southern European regions. This degree of amplification is found to strongly exceed the natural variability, providing unequivocal evidence of anthropogenic climate change. Given their fundamental capacity to reliably track any threshold-defined hazard at any location, the new metrics can support a myriad of uses beyond this example application. These range from climate impact analyses for extremes such as heatwaves, floods and droughts to extreme events attribution, quantifying the anthropogenic share of a hazard extremity and of its damage to properties and harm to people.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100855"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145962698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessment of environmental risk using trivariate joint distribution of river water temperature, river flow and dissolved oxygen with semiparametric D-vine copula framework 基于半参数D-vine copula框架的河流水温、河流流量和溶解氧三元联合分布的环境风险评价
IF 6.9 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100858
Shahid Latif , Taha B.M.J. Ouarda , Shaik Rehana , André St-Hilaire
{"title":"Assessment of environmental risk using trivariate joint distribution of river water temperature, river flow and dissolved oxygen with semiparametric D-vine copula framework","authors":"Shahid Latif ,&nbsp;Taha B.M.J. Ouarda ,&nbsp;Shaik Rehana ,&nbsp;André St-Hilaire","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100858","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100858","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Quantifying trivariate joint and conditional exceedance probabilities of River Water Temperature (RWT), River Flow (RF), and Dissolved Oxygen (DO) provides critical insights into compound water-quality stress and its implications for aquatic life and ecosystem health. However, the concurrent occurrence of critical RWT, DO, and RF thresholds, and the associated potential implications for aquatic species that motivate our focus on joint risk, has yet to be fully explored. To address the simultaneous joint action of RWT, RF and DO events, this study incorporates a D-vine copula with nonparametric Gaussian Kernel density estimation (GKDE) for modelling trivariate joint and conditional hazard risks. Using this proposed framework, the study analyzed monthly triplet datasets from the Musi River basin (Dhamaracharla gauge, 1991–2005) in India. RWT-RF and RWT-DO exhibit a strong negative correlation, while RF-DO shows a positive correlation. The GKDE method outperformed the parametric models in estimating marginal densities for all selected variables. A DO-centered semiparametric D-vine (order RWT-DO-RF) outperforms alternative vine orders and fully parametric models, showing higher likelihood, lower information-criterion scores, and a good calibration under the Rosenblatt transform. It shows no detectable tail clustering and aligns with standard tail diagnostics and joint-exceedance curves, providing a reliable basis for joint-risk estimation within the observed ranges. The rotated Joe copula (270°), BB8 copula, and Clayton copula (90°) are selected with GKDE in establishing trivariate joint and conditional return periods (RPs). The estimated RWT, RF and DO quantiles indicate dangerous levels with potential significant threats to aquatic life. Trivariate AND-joint RPs are generally higher than their bivariate counterparts. Furthermore, lower trivariate AND-joint RPs are associated with higher RWT and low RF and DO quantiles, reflecting elevated concurrence risk. Conditional joint RPs are lowest when RWT is high and both RF and DO are low, indicating elevated compound risk for water quality and possibly for biota. These joint and conditional estimates quantify concurrent hazard within the observed range and inform ecological risk assessment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100858"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146072711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluation of extreme temperature events in the Iberian Peninsula based on Copernicus CERRA reanalysis 基于哥白尼CERRA再分析的伊比利亚半岛极端温度事件评价
IF 6.9 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100872
Ana Gonzalez , Humberto Pereira , Ines Alvarez , Ana Picado , Maria Nieves Lorenzo , João Miguel Dias
{"title":"Evaluation of extreme temperature events in the Iberian Peninsula based on Copernicus CERRA reanalysis","authors":"Ana Gonzalez ,&nbsp;Humberto Pereira ,&nbsp;Ines Alvarez ,&nbsp;Ana Picado ,&nbsp;Maria Nieves Lorenzo ,&nbsp;João Miguel Dias","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100872","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100872","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has intensified extreme temperature events (ETEs), jeopardizing water resources, agriculture, and human health. Monitoring surface air temperature with comprehensive datasets is crucial, given the spatial and temporal limitations of <em>in situ</em> data. This study evaluates the recent Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (CERRA) product to investigate unusually high (heatwaves) or low (cold spells) temperatures over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) during two extended seasons. The assessment was performed with daily maximum and minimum air temperatures from 12 stations in mainland Portugal for 2000−2020, and from a high-resolution gridded dataset covering continental Spain and the Balearic Islands for 1985−2020. Several metrics describing the number, frequency, duration, amplitude, and magnitude of hot and cold extreme events were assessed. CERRA exhibits good performance, with a cold bias for maximum and a warm bias for minimum air temperature. It tends to underestimate the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves, Nevertheless, both the observations and CERRA identify the southwestern and interior regions of the IP as the most impacted whereas northern and coastal areas experience fewer and weaker heatwaves. Regarding cold spells, CERRA reproduces the general spatial gradient and the effects of orography, though it slightly underestimates their intensity and duration. The study of ETEs is highly relevant to the IP economy, especially agriculture, health, energy, and tourism, making their understanding crucial for mitigation and adaptation. The ability of CERRA to capture key ETEs features makes it a valuable dataset for evaluating health or agricultural models for the IP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100872"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146209780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaporative demand drought index for monitoring and analyzing drought conditions in arid regions of Asia and Africa 用于监测和分析亚洲和非洲干旱地区干旱状况的蒸发需求干旱指数
IF 6.9 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100873
Akinwale T. Ogunrinde , Paul Adigun , Xian Xue , Dairaku Koji , Ermias S. Brhane
{"title":"Evaporative demand drought index for monitoring and analyzing drought conditions in arid regions of Asia and Africa","authors":"Akinwale T. Ogunrinde ,&nbsp;Paul Adigun ,&nbsp;Xian Xue ,&nbsp;Dairaku Koji ,&nbsp;Ermias S. Brhane","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In arid regions of Asia and Africa, where evaporative demand exerts increasing control over drought dynamics under climate change, this study introduces the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) as a complementary tool to precipitation-based indices for improved monitoring of flash droughts and evapotranspiration-driven moisture stress. Using ERA5-Land reanalysis data at 0.1° resolution, EDDI was calculated using the Penman-Monteith formulation across timescales from sub-weekly to 12 months period. Its performance was evaluated against the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) through modified Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Sen's slope estimation, Spearman rank correlations, run theory-based drought characterization, and a detailed examination of the 2010 drought event. EDDI showed strong inverse correlations with SPI and SPEI (ranging from −0.41 to −0.91), with the strongest association, −0.91, observed between EDDI and SPEI at the 1-month scale in the Sahara (SAH) region. Across the studied arid domains, EDDI revealed more pronounced drying trends than those identified by SPI or SPEI, attributable to significant increases in temperature (0.02–0.05 °C year<sup>−1</sup>) and reference evapotranspiration (ET<sub>o</sub>) (2.0–5.16 mm year<sup>−1</sup>). Drought frequency intensified in most regions after 2000, except on the Tibetan Plateau (TIB). During the 2010 drought episode, EDDI detected the onset of the drought weeks earlier than SPI, demonstrating its sensitivity to rapid increases in evaporative demand. These findings indicate that EDDI serves as a valuable complementary index, capturing aspects of drought related to atmospheric evaporative demand and rapid-onset events that may be underrepresented by precipitation-focused metrics. Integrating EDDI into operational drought early warning systems for arid regions could enhance monitoring capabilities and support more informed decision-making for drought risk management under ongoing climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100873"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146777942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing livelihood vulnerability in flood-prone communities through systems thinking and the sustainable livelihood framework: A case study of Rajanpur district, Pakistan 通过系统思维和可持续生计框架评估易发洪灾社区的生计脆弱性:以巴基斯坦Rajanpur地区为例
IF 6.9 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100850
Muhammad Afzal , Thanh Mai , Shahbaz Mushtaq , Kathryn Reardon-Smith , Duc-Anh An-Vo
{"title":"Assessing livelihood vulnerability in flood-prone communities through systems thinking and the sustainable livelihood framework: A case study of Rajanpur district, Pakistan","authors":"Muhammad Afzal ,&nbsp;Thanh Mai ,&nbsp;Shahbaz Mushtaq ,&nbsp;Kathryn Reardon-Smith ,&nbsp;Duc-Anh An-Vo","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100850","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100850","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper addresses the critical issue of assessing, in a dynamic manner, the livelihood vulnerability of flood-prone rural communities in a developing country. The primary objective was to develop a framework for understanding the evolving nature of vulnerability to floods and to propose system-based intervention strategies to strengthen community resilience. Integrating a systems thinking approach with a sustainable livelihood framework, the study employs a case study in Rajanpur District, Pakistan—a region that has experienced significant flooding in recent decades. The research presents a conceptual model and its associated system archetypes of the community's livelihood system. The conceptual model highlights the underlying feedback structures that shape the district's vulnerability to livelihoods. The identified system archetypes reveal that current flood adaptation policies are maladaptive due to their unintended consequences that compromise the long-term effectiveness of interventions and sustainable management of livelihood resources. To avoid maladaptation and enhance the use of community livelihood capitals, policy efforts must shift from short-term fixes to designing and implementing long-term strategies that improve flood resilience and strengthen livelihood assets in the region. The present study offers valuable insights for reshaping adaptation policies in Pakistan and provides a foundation for knowledge sharing in other regions facing similar climate-related challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100850"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145895033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Diurnal evolution of synergistic interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves: An extreme heat wave case study in Seoul, South Korea 城市热岛与热浪协同作用的日演化:以韩国首尔的极端热浪为例
IF 6.9 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100854
Kyeongjoo Park, Jong-Jin Baik
{"title":"Diurnal evolution of synergistic interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves: An extreme heat wave case study in Seoul, South Korea","authors":"Kyeongjoo Park,&nbsp;Jong-Jin Baik","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100854","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100854","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The synergistic interactions between urban heat islands (UHIs) and heat waves (HWs) refer to a phenomenon that UHIs are intensified during HWs, resulting in a greater temperature increase due to HWs in urban areas than in rural areas. Despite significant variations of the UHI–HW synergies on a diurnal timescale, their key physical processes are still not clearly understood. This study examines the diurnal evolution of the UHI–HW synergies and its underlying physical processes. For this, we simulate an extreme HW event with strong UHI–HW synergies in Seoul, South Korea using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The UHI–HW synergies rapidly strengthen in early evening and diminish in early morning, similar to the diurnal pattern found in many large cities. In early evening, the rural diabatic cooling is greatly enhanced under clearer skies during HW while the increases in both urban stored heat release and urban turbulent mixing result in only a slight change in urban diabatic heating. These contrasting responses are primarily responsible for the strengthening of the UHI–HW synergies. In early morning, the warm air advection from the rural residual layer by subsidence significantly increases under HW while subsidence rarely occurs in the urban boundary layer. These different responses to HW are mainly responsible for the weakening of the UHI–HW synergies. This study underlines the importance of differing changes in urban and rural near-surface thermodynamic processes during HWs on the temporal evolution of the UHI–HW synergies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100854"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145956949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From mild to extreme heatwaves: Examining trends in North America 从温和到极端热浪:审视北美的趋势
IF 6.9 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100831
Élise Comeau , Alejandro Di Luca , Megan Kirchmeier-Young
{"title":"From mild to extreme heatwaves: Examining trends in North America","authors":"Élise Comeau ,&nbsp;Alejandro Di Luca ,&nbsp;Megan Kirchmeier-Young","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100831","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100831","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme heat is associated with negative consequences. Previous research has shown an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat in the 20th and early 21st centuries in most of North America. Similar trends are expected in the next decades. These increases are primarily driven by a shift of the temperature distribution towards warmer temperatures. Despite this rich literature, few studies have considered how past trends of milder heatwaves may differ from those of more extreme heatwaves. Here we quantify recent intensity and duration trends of North American heatwaves according to their severity, a novel metric which measures the intensity of a heatwave relative to other local contemporaneous heatwaves. We measure heatwave intensity using three different metrics (cumulative, average and maximum). These metrics are based on the anomaly of the daily maximum temperature relative to the local non-stationary 90th percentile. Heatwaves are then categorized as either mild, moderate or extreme in their severity. Our findings indicate that heatwave temperatures have been increasing in most of North America between 1940 and 2019 for every season. However, heatwave temperature anomalies have remained stable over this same period. Additionally, higher heatwave severity is linked to less noisy intensity trends. This cannot be explained solely by changes in the mean of the temperature distribution over time. Our results have important implications for the current estimation of heatwave intensity trends and suggest that the impact of their severity should be considered.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100831"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145525205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding decision-maker needs for extreme event attribution science 极端事件归因科学中决策者需求的理解
IF 6.9 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100842
Hannah R. Bourbon , Francine Machin , Pandora Hope , Brenda Mackie , Eric Lede
{"title":"Understanding decision-maker needs for extreme event attribution science","authors":"Hannah R. Bourbon ,&nbsp;Francine Machin ,&nbsp;Pandora Hope ,&nbsp;Brenda Mackie ,&nbsp;Eric Lede","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100842","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100842","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is a proliferation of Extreme Event Attribution (EEA) science studies that quantify to what extent anthropogenic climate change influences extreme events. To date, no evidence explores how EEA may be used in decision-making contexts, across jurisdictions and governments, within Australia. Understanding this will allow targeted capability development, to ensure EEA supports effective climate risk decision-making. This study closes this knowledge gap and contributes to a novel understanding of EEA use and needs in a decision-making context within Australia, aligned with objectives: (1) Identifying decision-maker familiarity and use of EEA for extreme heat and rainfall events and (2) Understanding how decision-making needs for EEA vary across geographies, climates and jurisdictions. Forty-three diverse decision-makers were interviewed in Temperate South-Eastern and Tropical Northern regions of Australia, and at the federal level. Five key areas to improve EEA communication and increase uptake in decision-making contexts were identified under the categories: Language, Methodology, Impact Linkages, Action-Oriented Communication and Scientific Comprehension. Results demonstrate varied EEA needs across regions and scales, and reveal that despite high familiarity with EEA, it is not widely used for decision-making. Challenges preventing regional decision-maker use of EEA included few local level EEA studies, none available in Northern Australia and the need for improved EEA communication in this region. EEA is being used to increase climate risk understanding, but Action-Oriented Communication could allow EEA to also drive adaptation and mitigation decisions. Recognising and addressing the identified areas for improvement will strengthen EEA delivery to support diverse climate risk decision-making contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100842"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145690053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantifying the spatial extent and attenuation of lake thermal regulation at diurnal scales under extreme heat 极端高温条件下湖泊日尺度热调节的空间范围和衰减量化
IF 6.9 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100847
Zikang Xing , Yunliang Li , Yufeng Dai , Jianhui Wei , Miaomiao Ma , Xuejun Zhang , Hui Gao , Harald Kunstmann
{"title":"Quantifying the spatial extent and attenuation of lake thermal regulation at diurnal scales under extreme heat","authors":"Zikang Xing ,&nbsp;Yunliang Li ,&nbsp;Yufeng Dai ,&nbsp;Jianhui Wei ,&nbsp;Miaomiao Ma ,&nbsp;Xuejun Zhang ,&nbsp;Hui Gao ,&nbsp;Harald Kunstmann","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100847","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100847","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lakes worldwide are experiencing intensifying extreme heat, with escalating ecological impacts. Despite lakes' role as thermal buffers to modulate air temperature is well-documented, the spatial propagation dynamics of lake effects remain poorly understood due to complex interactions of lake-atmosphere. This study proposes a synergistic WRF modeling and directional buffer analysis framework to investigate the spatial propagation dynamics and underlying physical mechanisms of lake-induced thermal regulation during extreme heat, focusing on Poyang Lake, China's largest freshwater lake. The results demonstrate a pronounced diurnal asymmetry in lake-induced thermal effects, with distinct spatial propagation characteristics between daytime and nighttime periods. Daytime cooling exhibits an intensity of −1.16 °C, with its influence confined within a 40 km radius, showing a relatively rapid attenuation rate of 0.28 °C per 10 km. In contrast, nighttime warming (+0.97 °C) propagates 1.75 times farther than its daytime counterpart, extending up to 70 km downwind while maintaining a slower attenuation rate of 0.13 °C per 10 km. Directional analysis reveals north-oriented propagation of lake thermal effects, influenced by prevailing southerly winds and lake-land breeze. Vertical profile analysis reveals distinct altitudinal penetration of lake-induced thermal effects, with daytime influences confined below 900 hPa while nighttime impacts extend up to 700 hPa. Daytime cooling extent is limited by turbulent mixing, whereas nighttime warming is enhanced by stable air conditioning and advective transport. The study underscores the role of lake-atmosphere interactions in mitigating regional climate extremes, providing critical insights for nature-based heat adaptation strategies in lake-rich regions. These findings advance the understanding of inland water bodies as active climate regulators under anthropogenic warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100847"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145785291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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