Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献

{"title":"Attribution of the 2024 record-breaking precipitation event in Southern Denmark to human-induced climate change","authors":"Matthew L. Newell ,&nbsp;Martin Drews ,&nbsp;Andrea Böhnisch ,&nbsp;Nanna Høgh Ravn ,&nbsp;Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100848","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100848","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events has been reported across the globe. These events threaten society through hazards like floods and droughts, underscoring the need to understand how such risks are evolving in a changing climate. Standardized methods have recently been introduced to assess the potential role of climate change for extreme events. The World Weather Attribution (WWA) offers a probabilistic framework to determine whether changes in the frequency and severity of extremes can be attributed to anthropogenic warming. Here we use this methodology to attribute an unprecedented rainfall event in Southern Denmark to anthropogenic climate change. On September 27, 2024, approx. 145 mm of rainfall fell over the city of Esbjerg, marking the highest daily rainfall on record for September. The event caused widespread flooding, disrupting transportation, damaging infrastructure, and affecting residential areas. This study draws on rainfall observations, reanalysis datasets, and climate model ensembles to assess the role of anthropogenic climate change. Notably, this is the first attribution study to apply ClimEx, a high-resolution, regional single-model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE). The results of the analysis show that the rainfall event was 60 % (−20 %–540 %) more likely in the current climate compared to a pre-industrial climate, and that the intensity of the event increased by 10.2 % (−3.3 %–25.6 %) due to climate change. Our findings also indicate that the frequency and intensity of such events increase with further warming. Overall, this study highlights how hazards, exposure, and vulnerabilities contribute to risk in cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100848"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145785334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A dual-branch typhoon-induced wave height forecasting network with tail-aware extreme value optimization","authors":"Ting Lv ,&nbsp;Haiqing Yu ,&nbsp;Hui Wang ,&nbsp;Yingtao Zhu ,&nbsp;Lv Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100844","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100844","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate forecasting of typhoon-induced wave height (WH), which supports timely evacuation and informed emergency responses, is essential for the effectiveness of early warning systems. Despite recent advances in deep learning for WH forecasting, a critical gap persists: current models often fail to reliably predict rare but catastrophic extreme WH under typhoon conditions due to data scarcity. To address this challenge, we propose a physics-guided multi-scale attention framework, named the typhoon-induced wave height network (TWHN), which adopts a dual-branch architecture that separately captures wind sea and swell features. Unlike architectures that rely on initial WH inputs, TWHN forecasts WH directly from historical wind fields, thereby reducing error accumulation and supporting predictions at future time steps. To enhance the representation of extreme WH events, we introduce a tail-aware extreme value optimization (TEVO) strategy, which integrates a progressive training scheme to shift model focus from global patterns to tail data and a quantile-aware hybrid loss to penalize underestimation of high-magnitude waves. Additionally, a feature distribution smoothing mechanism is employed to stabilize training in data-sparse regimes by mitigating feature dominance from frequent samples. The model is trained, validated, and tested on WH records from 1982 to 2022, using a reanalysis dataset that includes 1 060 typhoons in the Northwest Pacific. Evaluation based on regional fields and nearshore station comparisons suggests that TWHN maintains strong potential for forecasting high-impact typhoon wave events. This work may provide implications for the advancement of operational wave forecasting and the support of risk decision-making in response to typhoon-induced marine hazards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100844"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145730872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What drives the compound drought and heat events? A dynamic perspective","authors":"Shuang Zhou ,&nbsp;Shaohong Wu ,&nbsp;Jiangbo Gao ,&nbsp;Lulu Liu ,&nbsp;Jie Wang ,&nbsp;Rui Yan ,&nbsp;Bin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100863","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100863","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compound drought and heat events (CDHE) have garnered significant attention due to their amplified negative impacts on socio-economic systems and ecosystems. However, the mechanisms driving their occurrence and evolution remain unclear, particularly from a dynamic, long-term perspective. This study develops a novel dynamic framework that integrates Meta-Gaussian models, differential equations, and random forest regression to systematically characterize CDHE, attribute key drivers, and identify regional disparities. Results indicate a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of CDHE globally from 1960 to 2022. Attribution analysis reveals that heat is the dominant driver of CDHE, followed by drought conditions and their interaction. Notably, our findings reveal a dynamic shift in CDHE drivers under climate warming: the influence of heat declines, while drought conditions and their interaction gradually become the primary factors. Furthermore, a distinct shift in the driving mechanisms from arid to humid regions is identified. In arid areas, CDHE is more sensitive to changes in drought conditions, whereas in humid regions, heat plays a predominant role. This study advances the understanding of CDHE dynamics by elucidating their regional driving mechanisms and climatic influences. These findings provide critical insights to enhance predictive models and inform adaptive management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100863"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146072715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A depth-duration-frequency model for analysis of extreme precipitation events, with application to past and projected future climates in Ireland","authors":"Enda O'Brien ,&nbsp;Jingyu Wang ,&nbsp;Páraic Ryan ,&nbsp;Paul Nolan ,&nbsp;Carla Mateus","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100862","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100862","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A simple depth-duration-frequency (DDF) model is proposed to reveal the asymptotic characteristics of extreme but short-lived precipitation events that satisfy a peak over threshold (POT) size criterion. Our objective is to reliably estimate the return periods for events of a given intensity (as measured by rainfall depth and duration). For each depth threshold and duration period, the number of qualifying POT events is simply counted over multi-year periods, whether from observations or model output. The distribution of events as a function of their size above the threshold is modelled by a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), following standard extreme value theory. Those exceedance distributions are shown, to a good approximation, to be independent of location. This justifies the aggregation of exceedances from multiple locations, which is a key feature of the model. Aggregation acts as a data multiplier, enabling more reliable estimation of GPD fits and return periods.</div><div>The model is applied to intense precipitation observations spanning 30–64 years at 23 stations in Ireland. Three-hourly output from an ensemble of global climate simulations, downscaled to high-resolution over Ireland, were also used to compute both historical and projected future intense event return periods under two different emission scenarios.</div><div>Future numbers of events per time-period are projected to increase by 20–80 %, depending on event threshold and duration, location, emission scenario and time-period. Return periods are projected to shorten by factors of 2 or more for the most intense events, as illustrated by return period maps for events of any given size.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100862"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146072717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changing contributions of teleconnection patterns to extreme heat events in East Asia","authors":"So-Hyun Nam ,&nbsp;Jeong-Hun Kim ,&nbsp;Ji-Seon Oh ,&nbsp;Maeng-Ki Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100865","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100865","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent decades, East Asia has experienced a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, which have severely impacted socioeconomic sectors. This study investigates the evolving contribution of mid-to high-latitude teleconnection patterns, specifically Circumglobal Teleconnection (CGT) and Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) patterns, to East Asian heat waves (EAHWs) from 1979 to 2023. Since 2008, the influence of teleconnections on EAHWs has intensified, with a noticeable shift in the dominant patterns. Although the CGT pattern was the primary contributor before 2008, the ASP pattern has emerged as the dominant influence in recent years. This transition is attributed to intensified anti-cyclonic anomalies over the ASP region, which are linked to enhanced water vapor feedback and the development of thermal high-pressure systems. Consequently, the probability of extreme heat events under the ASP pattern was approximately three times higher than that under the CGT pattern during the post-2008 period. Understanding these evolving teleconnection dynamics is critical for improving predictive models and formulating effective adaptation strategies to mitigate the escalating risk of extreme heat in a region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100865"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146095923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Irreversibility of extreme precipitation intensity in global monsoon areas under multiple carbon neutrality scenarios","authors":"Md. Babul Miah ,&nbsp;Jong-Yeon Park ,&nbsp;Min-Uk Lee ,&nbsp;Woojin Jeon ,&nbsp;Young-Hwa Byun ,&nbsp;Hyun Min Sung ,&nbsp;Jin Gi Hong ,&nbsp;Md. Jalal Uddin ,&nbsp;Sanjit Kumar Mondal","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100843","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100843","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Global Monsoon Areas (GMAs), home to over half of the world's population, face escalating socio-economic risks from extreme precipitation events intensified by rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). While previous studies have examined the irreversibility of the climate system following carbon neutrality, most have focused on single carbon neutrality scenarios with limited attention to these vulnerable areas. This study assesses the irreversibility of extreme precipitation intensity across seven GMA sub-regions under eight future scenarios, incorporating four carbon neutrality targets and two reduction rates, using simulations from a state-of-the-art climate model. Our results reveal that extreme precipitation intensity exhibits irreversible behavior in response to carbon neutrality forcing, failing to return to its initial level even when atmospheric CO₂ is reduced. This irreversibility is particularly pronounced when carbon neutrality timing is delayed, and the emission reduction rate is slow. Moreover, the irreversible response is nonlinear to the magnitude of carbon forcing, leading to distinct regional vulnerabilities, with some areas experiencing sharp increases in irreversibility by even small delays in reaching carbon neutrality. This region-specific behavior is largely attributed to increases in mean and variability of precipitation linked to irreversible El Niño-like warming and interhemispheric differential warming. Moisture budget analysis further shows that the intensified precipitation arises from the relative influence of thermodynamic (moisture flux) and dynamic (wind) drivers across regions. These findings highlight the urgency of rapid policy implementation in vulnerable regions and can provide a scientific basis for developing regional adaptation strategies to mitigate growing extreme precipitation risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100843"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145689977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Learning the hard way: Applying a climate literacy approach to extreme weather experience — Evidence from Poland","authors":"Łukasz Kurowski,&nbsp;Tomasz Wites","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100851","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100851","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate literacy is essential for empowering societies to respond effectively to the challenges of climate change. However, individuals often struggle to address climate issues because of their abstract nature and perceived psychological distance. This study investigates whether direct personal experiences of extreme weather events are associated with higher scores on the climate literacy measures among Polish citizens. We developed and validated, through an expert-based process, the “Big Three Climate Literacy Questions” - a concise instrument designed to capture key components of climate literacy across knowledge, skills and attitudes - and administered them in a survey of 1001 residents from regions in Poland historically affected by floods and storms. Regression analyses reveal that the mere occurrence of an extreme weather event does not significantly influence scores on the climate literacy measures. However, when such events result in severe financial or psychological consequences, they are associated with higher literacy scores (for all three dimensions of climate literacy), suggesting that the intensity of the experience can act as a catalyst for deeper cognitive and emotional engagement. We also find that individuals employed in high-emission sectors tend to overestimate their climate knowledge; nonetheless, their personal experiences with extreme weather events are still associated with higher scores on the climate literacy measures. These findings support the hypothesis that intense climate-related experiences can serve as “teachable moments\", enhancing receptiveness to climate information and fostering the development of more accurate and informed climate-related beliefs—even among groups that might otherwise exhibit resistance to such messages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100851"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Asymmetric impacts of urbanization on precipitation in the Ordos Plateau urban agglomeration","authors":"Yixuan Wang ,&nbsp;Tingxi Liu ,&nbsp;Ruizhong Gao ,&nbsp;Xiaomin Liu ,&nbsp;Limin Duan ,&nbsp;Shaojie Chu ,&nbsp;Jin Sun ,&nbsp;Ping Miao ,&nbsp;Hongli Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100871","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100871","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding how urbanization intensifies precipitation, especially in water-sensitive arid regions, is critical for climate adaptation. This study investigates the nonlinear and scale-dependent responses of precipitation to urbanization in the Ordos Plateau, China, an ecologically fragile arid region experiencing rapid urban expansion. We parameterized urbanization intensity and precipitation amplification to quantify their relationship across different quantiles (τ) and time scales using a mixed-effects nonlinear quantile regression model. This approach allowed us to control for site-specific variability and isolate the generalizable urbanization effect. Our results reveal a robust urbanization intensity-dependent precipitation enhancement. On average, across the time scales considered, a tenfold increase in urbanization intensity amplifies extreme precipitation (<em>τ</em> = 0.99) by approximately 0.590 units, which is about 4.6 times greater than its effect on light precipitation (<em>τ</em> = 0.01). Furthermore, the marginal contribution of urbanization to precipitation amplification diminishes with increasing urbanization levels but remains persistently higher for extreme events. Crucially, these nonlinear effects are more pronounced at monthly and seasonal scales than at the annual scale, underscoring a heightened vulnerability to short-term extremes. These findings reveal that urban expansion in arid and semi-arid regions disproportionately exacerbates extreme precipitation risks. It is therefore suggested that urban planning, water resource management, and disaster prevention policies integrate this nonlinear, urbanization intensity–dependent relationship to enhance climate resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100871"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146209743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Application of the Davies four-stage conceptual model for life-threatening rainfall extremes on the April 2024 United Arab Emirates and Oman floods","authors":"Paul A. Davies ,&nbsp;David L.A. Flack ,&nbsp;Jennifer S.R. Pirret ,&nbsp;Hayley J. Fowler","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100846","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100846","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the environmental conditions that resulted in the extreme rainfall and flash floods in the United Arab Emirates and Oman: 14–16 April 2024. We use a combination of numerical weather prediction modelling and observational analysis to examine the dynamics and thermodynamics of the event. Moisture convergence in the lower troposphere and a cut-off low pressure vortex coupled with high pressure over the northern Arabian Sea funnelled warm, moist air towards the Arabian Gulf. These dynamics lead to an environment that is not particularly unstable, but it is saturated in depth, with moist absolute unstable layers (MAULs) in and around areas of extreme rainfall.</div><div>We apply the concept of normalized gross moist stability alongside a recently proposed four-stage conceptual model in a spatial context. We identify large-scale indicators useful for augmenting forecast models, finding an association between MAUL depth, saturation fraction, and total rainfall. The presence of deep MAULs and a saturation fraction close to one are prerequisites for heavy rainfall enhancement in the hours preceding and during the rainfall peak.</div><div>We propose a new method to predict the characteristics of an extreme rainfall event using both the presence of MAULs and saturation fraction as a proxy for extremes, as either one on their own is not as beneficial. We infer that together these predictors can be used to discriminate between embedded convection in fronts versus isolated convective events producing the extremes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100846"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145730868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of extremely high temperature on future photovoltaic power potential over East Asia","authors":"Changyong Park ,&nbsp;Ana Juzbašić ,&nbsp;Dong-Hyun Cha ,&nbsp;Seung-Ki Min ,&nbsp;Joong-Bae Ahn ,&nbsp;Eun-Chul Chang ,&nbsp;Young-Hwa Byun ,&nbsp;Youngeun Choi","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100859","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100859","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As global warming intensifies, the frequency and intensity of extremely high temperatures are expected to increase. This will impact the production of photovoltaics (PVs), which are increasingly adopted as an effective alternative to replace fossil fuel–based energy sources and reduce CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, extremely high temperature days account for a considerable proportion of days with high PV power potential (PVpot). Therefore, this study investigates changes in PVpot on future extremely high temperature days over East Asia, a region with high greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerability to extreme climatic events. The East Asia–averaged PVpot for extremely high temperature days was estimated to decrease across all scenarios and future periods. The East Asia–averaged PVpot for extremely high temperature days was predicted to decrease more substantially toward the late 21st century, with a larger magnitude of decrease expected under the high–carbon emissions scenario compared to the low–carbon emissions scenario. By the mid–and late 21st century, PVpot for extremely high temperature days was projected to decrease in PV hotspot areas, particularly in the regions of northern China and southern Mongolia, by up to −7.2 %. The signs of PVpot projections vary across sub–regions under summer mean conditions, while on extremely high temperature days, PVpot is consistently expected to decrease in all regions. This suggests that extremely high temperatures further intensify the decrease in PVpot. Moreover, under extremely high-temperature conditions, near-surface air temperature has been identified as the primary driver of projected decreases in PVpot among the climate variables considered; its influence is expected to intensify over time, thereby accelerating PVpot decreases under the high–carbon emissions scenario. Based on the findings, this study is expected to provide new insights for the development of renewable energy policies in a future where extremely high temperatures are projected to increase.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100859"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146033640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}