Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献_第3页

Vegetation drought condition index for probabilistic monitoring and forecasting of vegetation drought 用于植被干旱概率监测与预报的植被干旱状况指数

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100786

Jeongeun Won , Jeongju Lee , Sangdan Kim

{"title":"Vegetation drought condition index for probabilistic monitoring and forecasting of vegetation drought","authors":"Jeongeun Won , Jeongju Lee , Sangdan Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100786","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100786","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the impacts of meteorological drought on vegetation have intensified, there is a growing need for a system that can quantitatively assess and forecast vegetation drought. This study proposes a vegetation drought monitoring and forecasting framework utilizing a copula-based probabilistic approach to address this need. By constructing a joint probability distribution between a meteorological drought index and a vegetation index, we developed the Vegetation Drought Condition Index (VDCI), which was then integrated with numerical weather prediction data to establish a probabilistic vegetation drought forecasting framework. The VDCI is capable of selectively detecting vegetation stress caused by meteorological conditions and enables the quantitative assessment of drought severity through a four-level vegetation drought classification criteria. Spatial and temporal analyses confirmed that the VDCI can identify vegetation drought more clearly than individual indices. Moreover, the probabilistic forecasting framework demonstrated excellent forecasting performance with an average F1-score of approximately 0.9 across all pixels. This study proposes a framework enabling quantitative monitoring and forecasting of vegetation drought based on the probabilistic relationship between meteorological drought and vegetation response, and is expected to contribute to the development of ecosystem-based drought early warning and response strategies in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100786"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144515466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Attribution of heat extremes and its health effects in Yangtze River Basin in late summer 2024 2024年夏末长江流域极端高温归因及其对健康的影响

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100787

Liwen Ren , Yi Li , Hui Chen , Zhen Liao , Yihui Ding

{"title":"Attribution of heat extremes and its health effects in Yangtze River Basin in late summer 2024","authors":"Liwen Ren , Yi Li , Hui Chen , Zhen Liao , Yihui Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100787","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100787","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>During the summer of 2024, the Yangtze River Basin (YZB) suffered from relentless heat. In particular, the late summer (from the 20th August to the 20th September) witnessed record-breaking high temperature anomalies ranging from daily to monthly timescales, reaching 5.19 °C (∼4.42 standard deviations) above the 1981–2010 mean. The Sichuan Basin was the most affected areas. Our analysis suggested that such heat event would not have occurred without past human activities, and the occurrence probability of similar events is expected to increase by 91 times by the end of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. We further assessed population exposure to heat-related health risks during the heat event, based on the Heat Health Risk Early Warning Level recommended by China CDC. During the summer of 2024, the late summer phase suffered the most from a prolonged period of the highest-level heat health risks (level-3), with 20 % of the population exposed. Simultaneously, there is a growing vulnerability of the population to all levels of heat health risks over the past decades, with exposures to both level-1 and level-2 reaching historical peaks in 2024. With a substantial increase in heat days, this increasing trend of population exposure to heat health risks is expected to continue in the future. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, for the level-1 heat health risk, an extra 20 % of the YZB population might face such conditions by 2035 comparable to the 2024 exposure. By the 2090s, the population exposure to record-breaking heat registered in late summer of 2024 will be normal, affecting 40 % of the projected population. Our study provides critical insights into the association between climate change and heat health risks from the 2024-like heat event in the YZB, highlighting the urgent need for heat health early warnings and adaptive measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100787"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144515464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A hybrid statistical-dynamical method to translate past extreme temperature days into the future climate 一种将过去极端温度日转化为未来气候的混合统计-动力方法

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100785

Julien Boé, Margot Bador, Laurent Terray

{"title":"A hybrid statistical-dynamical method to translate past extreme temperature days into the future climate","authors":"Julien Boé, Margot Bador, Laurent Terray","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100785","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100785","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents a novel hybrid statistical-dynamical method intended to translate past observed weather events into the future climate, and applies it to warm and cold extreme temperature days over western Europe. The method estimates the temperature anomalies that would result if an observed event of the 1940–2023 period, defined in terms of atmospheric circulation, were to occur at the end of the 21st century, under new climatological conditions. In practice, constructed analogues of observed extreme events are built using data from regional climate projections. Three regional climate projections under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway are used in order to assess the role of model uncertainties in this context. The same approach is also used beforehand to assess the role of large-scale circulation in the observed extreme temperature days, and the ability of regional climate models to capture it is evaluated. The study finds significant variability in the role of atmospheric dynamics in extreme temperature days, contributing 35–80 % of the temperature anomaly for warm days and 20–90 % for cold days, with other factors such as land-atmosphere interactions playing an amplifying role. Regional climate models generally capture the dynamical part of temperature anomalies quite correctly. Not surprisingly extreme temperature days become more intense in the future climate, but a large inter-event spread exists. Some of the events could become much warmer, while others would not change much. Moreover, this intensification varies widely between regional climate models, and not necessarily in line with the average warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100785"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144330245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Understanding drought onset: What makes flash droughts different from conventional droughts? 了解干旱的发生：是什么使突发性干旱与常规干旱不同？

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100782

Pallavi Goswami , Ailie J.E. Gallant

{"title":"Understanding drought onset: What makes flash droughts different from conventional droughts?","authors":"Pallavi Goswami , Ailie J.E. Gallant","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100782","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100782","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the timescales of drought onset to understand the differences between rapid onset droughts, called flash droughts, and the more conventional slow-onset droughts. Using a soil moisture-based drought identification approach, we show that soil moisture across most of Australia can transition from near-normal to drought conditions within one month’s time. The median duration for non-rapid drought onset, here called a conventional drought, is 30 days, while the rapid onset drought, here called a flash drought, takes around 15 days, indicating that the difference in onset timescales of the two drought types is relatively small. Further, our findings reveal that changes to precipitation and evaporative conditions during a flash drought onset are not very different from those that cause a conventional drought onset. However, flash drought development is associated with larger magnitude of anomalies of those variables leading to drought conditions. These larger anomalies during flash droughts reduce soil moisture rapidly, with a potential to cause damage to vegetation health without sufficient early warning. Although there is a diversity in the mechanisms causing flash droughts, we show here that the majority of the flash droughts are primarily related to the joint influence of abnormally low precipitation and heightened incoming solar radiation (low cloud cover) and large vapour pressure deficits (low relative humidity). The results emphasise the need to update existing drought monitoring systems to account for more realistic timescales of drought onsets for better early warning and preparedness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100782"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144296875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A pseudo global warming based system to study how climate change affects high impact rainfall events 一个基于伪全球变暖的系统，用于研究气候变化如何影响高影响降雨事件

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100781

Geert Lenderink , Hylke de Vries , Erik van Meijgaard , Wim de Rooy , Lambertus van Ulft , Vikki Thompson , Xiaobin Qiu , Hayley J. Fowler

{"title":"A pseudo global warming based system to study how climate change affects high impact rainfall events","authors":"Geert Lenderink , Hylke de Vries , Erik van Meijgaard , Wim de Rooy , Lambertus van Ulft , Vikki Thompson , Xiaobin Qiu , Hayley J. Fowler","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100781","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100781","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing the influence of climate change on extreme (convective) rainfall is challenging. In particular with global climate models, it is virtually impossible to combine high resolution modelling to represent the physical processes adequately together with conducting long simulations to achieve statistical robustness. To complement global modelling efforts, we here present an event oriented system based on pseudo global warming (PGW). The system consists of continuous short-term forecast cycles (3 days long starting each day at midnight) running a small set of 12 km resolution simulations for the present-day climate, a cooler past climate, and three warmer climates. For extreme events these runs are further downscaled to convection permitting resolutions. This allows us to study the spatiotemporal characteristics of convective rainfall and associated phenomena, like wind gusts, hail, and lightning within a climate change context. At the same time, the system has sufficient signal-to-noise to study climate change effects in rare extreme events. We illustrate the application the system with three recent extreme rainfall events (storm Babet in the UK, October 2023; the Italy spring 2023 floods; and the Germany Bavaria, 2024 floods) and discuss strengths and limitations of the method. One additional case with extreme convective wind gusts shows the potential further application of the system. All three rainfall events reveal climate change responses well beyond the commonly expected Clausius-Clapeyron rate, and two cases (in Italy and Germany) reveal a concentration of rainfall in more confined areas, disproportionally enhancing the potential for flash floods in a warming climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100781"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144231556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Convection-permitting WRF simulation of extreme winds in Canada: Present and future scenarios 允许对流的WRF模拟加拿大极端风：现在和未来情景

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100777

Xiao Ma, Yanping Li, Fei Huo, Zhenhua Li

{"title":"Convection-permitting WRF simulation of extreme winds in Canada: Present and future scenarios","authors":"Xiao Ma, Yanping Li, Fei Huo, Zhenhua Li","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100777","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100777","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates extreme wind events across southern Canada using 4-km convection-permitting WRF simulations under present (CTRL) and future (PGW) climate scenarios. The high resolution allows explicit representation of convective processes and complex terrain, improving local-scale wind prediction. We analyze three distinct regions—the central Prairies, Rocky Mountains, and southern Ontario—and find strong spatial and seasonal contrasts. Under future conditions, summer wind extremes intensify notably in the Prairies and southern Ontario, while winter winds decrease in the Prairies but increase in Ontario, Quebec, and mountainous areas. A conditional probability analysis based on Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) reveals that the likelihood of destructive winds (>20 m/s) rises significantly in convectively unstable environments. In southern Ontario, the probability under strong instability (CAPE >2500 J/kg) increases from nearly zero to 0.4. We also apply the Peaks-over-Threshold (POT) method to estimate 50-year return period wind speeds, which show substantial future increases, up to 6 m/s in some areas during summer. These changes indicate a rising threat from convectively driven wind extremes. This study highlights the value of convection-permitting models in resolving local wind features and emphasizes the need for region-specific adaptation strategies. The findings critically impact wind hazard assessment, infrastructure design, and climate resilience planning across southern Canada.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100777"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144263292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Downscaled CMIP6 future climate projections for New Zealand: climatology and extremes 缩小版CMIP6对新西兰未来气候的预估：气候学和极端事件

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100784

Peter B. Gibson , Ashley M. Broadbent , Stephen J. Stuart , Hamish Lewis , Isaac Campbell , Neelesh Rampal , Luke J. Harrington , Jonny Williams

{"title":"Downscaled CMIP6 future climate projections for New Zealand: climatology and extremes","authors":"Peter B. Gibson , Ashley M. Broadbent , Stephen J. Stuart , Hamish Lewis , Isaac Campbell , Neelesh Rampal , Luke J. Harrington , Jonny Williams","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100784","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100784","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Downscaled climate projections provide regionally relevant information for climate adaptation and planning purposes. Updated climate projections (∼12-km) are presented here for the New Zealand region, downscaling 6 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under a high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). Three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to explore differences when downscaling select GCMs. For end of century projections (relative to 1986–2005), the national multi-model annual mean warming is 3.1°C (model range 2.0–3.8°C) across downscaled simulations. Downscaling generally enhances warming over New Zealand relative to the GCMs, with the largest increases across high-elevation regions. There can be important differences in the projections across RCMs, including at national scales for temperature and across local-to-regional scales for precipitation. Averaged across models, annual extreme heatwaves become 3–5°C hotter for most regions. More frequent, intense, and longer duration meteorological drought is projected across northern and eastern regions of both islands. In terms of model uncertainty based on sign agreement, while summer mean precipitation projections carry the largest uncertainty, projections of summer meteorological drought and precipitation extremes can be made with greater confidence. These results provide a foundation for further targeted regional climate change impact and adaptation studies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100784"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Influence of the East Asia‒Pacific and Eurasian teleconnection on the summer marine heatwaves in the Japan/East Sea 东亚-亚太和欧亚遥相关对日本/东海夏季海洋热浪的影响

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100783

Kaidi Huang , Gang Zeng , Aminu Dalhatu Datti , Changming Dong

{"title":"Influence of the East Asia‒Pacific and Eurasian teleconnection on the summer marine heatwaves in the Japan/East Sea","authors":"Kaidi Huang , Gang Zeng , Aminu Dalhatu Datti , Changming Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100783","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100783","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are an escalating global issue, posing significant threats to marine ecosystems and the fisheries economy worldwide, including in the Japan/East Sea (JES). However, the influence of atmospheric circulation modes on the occurrence of MHWs in this relatively enclosed sea area remains unclear. To address this issue, this study utilizes 1982–2023 high-resolution daily satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data and atmospheric reanalysis products to investigate the relationship between atmospheric circulation modes and MHWs in the JES. The results show that during 1982–2023, the JES experienced severe summer MHWs, primarily driven by intense shortwave radiation linked to atmospheric activities. The East Asia-Pacific (EAP) pattern was found to influence the MHWs in the JES. Notably, we identified an interdecadal change in the relationship between MHWs and EAP patterns around 2001. Before 2001, there was a strong correlation (r = 0.68, <em>p</em> < 0.01) between MHWs in the JES and the EAP, but this relationship weakened significantly in the following years. During the 1982–2000 period, MHWs in the JES were primarily influenced by tropical convection over the South China Sea and the Philippine region, which triggered poleward Rossby wave propagation. Furthermore, since 2001, MHWs have shown a strong correlation with the summer Eurasian (EU) teleconnection, a zonal wave train situated over Eurasia. The correlation between EU and MHWs has reached 0.6 (<em>p</em> < 0.01) during the period from 2001 to 2023, in contrast to a weak negative correlation observed in the preceding EAP dominated period. This EU type mode is linked to warm SST anomalies in the North Atlantic and cold SST anomalies in the north of Western Europe from April to August. The Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM) and NCAR CAM5.3 can effectively validate the conclusions of the observations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100783"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144195071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

High-latitude lake influence on highly concentrated precipitation from cold-season storms in western Canada 高纬度湖泊对加拿大西部冷季风暴高度集中降水的影响

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100778

Fei Huo, Yanping Li, Zhenhua Li

{"title":"High-latitude lake influence on highly concentrated precipitation from cold-season storms in western Canada","authors":"Fei Huo, Yanping Li, Zhenhua Li","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100778","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100778","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cold-season (October–March) storms, particularly severe snowstorms, are responsible for significant economic losses and have crucial impacts on freshwater availability and ecosystems in high-latitude North America. These snowstorms also contribute to destructive floods during rapid snowmelt. Thus, ecosystems and water infrastructure in Canada are highly sensitive to changes in cold-season storms under global warming. This study employs an object-based approach, specifically utilizing a storm-tracking algorithm, to investigate how cold-season storm precipitation in western Canada responds to climate change under a worst-case warming scenario. In the entire study area, peak daily precipitation greater than 50 mm day<sup>−1</sup> within storms significantly increases in both warm and cold seasons. The most extreme storms with highly concentrated precipitation (that is, storms with the precipitation intensity 5 times greater at the storm center compared to the area-averaged intensity), are expected to become more frequent in the future, particularly in the coastal regions and inland lake regions. More importantly, by analyzing the top 20 storms with the highest peak daily precipitation, we found that in the future, lakes will contribute more moisture to the atmosphere through increased evaporation, thereby intensifying the moisture supply and enhancing storm precipitation. Additionally, our findings indicate that future cold-season storms with highly concentrated precipitation may not increase evenly across each month. Warmer lakes in autumn, due to their high thermal inertia, will continue to provide significant local moisture to the atmosphere, which is crucial for the formation of highly concentrated precipitation. These findings suggest significant implications for understanding and predicting the impacts of climate change on storm dynamics and precipitation patterns over inland lakes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100778"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Anthropogenic influence has intensified the severity of summer compound hot and drought events over xinjiang, China 人为影响加剧了新疆夏季复合干热事件的严重程度

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100774

Xiaolu Zhang , Botao Zhou , Xiaoxin Wang , Wenxin Xie , Huixin Li

{"title":"Anthropogenic influence has intensified the severity of summer compound hot and drought events over xinjiang, China","authors":"Xiaolu Zhang , Botao Zhou , Xiaoxin Wang , Wenxin Xie , Huixin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100774","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100774","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compared with individual hot or drought extremes, compound hot and drought events (CHDEs) usually cause more disastrous socio-economic damage. Thus, understanding the change of CHDEs in the context of global warming is crucial for effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. This article, based on the CN05.1 gridded dataset and 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations, examines the change in summer (June–July–August) CHDEs over Xinjiang, China from 1961 to 2020 and assesses the contribution of human influence using the optimal fingerprint method. The observational results show a significant upward trend in the severity of CHDEs over Xinjiang, among which the change in moderate CHDEs shows a dominant contribution. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean simulation with all forcing generally matches the observation in the change of CHDEs over Xinjiang. Moreover, anthropogenic and natural forcings can be detected and separated from each other, with human activities contributing most to the CHDE change. Furthermore, the three-signal analysis of model responses to greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosol, and natural forcings indicates that the greenhouse gas forcing is primary to the increased severity of CHDEs in Xinjiang, while the influence of anthropogenic aerosol forcing cannot be detected.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100774"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144069351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0