Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献

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Orographic and land-sea contrast effects in convection-permitting simulations of extreme sub-daily precipitation 在允许对流的极端次日降水模拟中的地形和陆海对比效应
IF 6.9 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100798
Paola Mazzoglio , Marco Lompi , Francesco Marra , Eleonora Dallan , Roberto Deidda , Pierluigi Claps , Salvatore Manfreda , Leonardo Valerio Noto , Alberto Viglione , Mario Raffa , Paola Mercogliano , Marco Marani , Enrica Caporali , Marco Borga
{"title":"Orographic and land-sea contrast effects in convection-permitting simulations of extreme sub-daily precipitation","authors":"Paola Mazzoglio ,&nbsp;Marco Lompi ,&nbsp;Francesco Marra ,&nbsp;Eleonora Dallan ,&nbsp;Roberto Deidda ,&nbsp;Pierluigi Claps ,&nbsp;Salvatore Manfreda ,&nbsp;Leonardo Valerio Noto ,&nbsp;Alberto Viglione ,&nbsp;Mario Raffa ,&nbsp;Paola Mercogliano ,&nbsp;Marco Marani ,&nbsp;Enrica Caporali ,&nbsp;Marco Borga","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100798","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100798","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) represent a significant advancement compared to regional climate models, enabling more accurate simulations of extreme precipitation at fine spatial and temporal scales. Assessing the reliability of CPM projections for extreme short-duration precipitation requires understanding how well CPMs reproduce observed extremes—especially in Mediterranean regions, where such evaluations are rare. In this study, we assess the accuracy of simulations from a high-resolution CPM covering the entire Italy (VHR-PRO_IT), in reproducing sub-daily precipitation extremes. For this, we exploit observations from I<sup>2</sup>-RED, a comprehensive dataset of more than 5 000 quality-checked annual maximum time series from rain gauge observations. The comparison is performed by considering the median values of the annual maxima at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24-h as a first step and rainfall quantiles up to 200-year return period as a second step. Our results show that model performance is influenced by both the distance from the coastline and elevation, highlighting an important role of orography and land-sea contrast in explaining CPM biases. Moreover, we find better performances when longer duration extremes are considered, while shorter durations are affected by strong underestimations, especially in coastal and low-elevation areas. These results hold significant implications for stakeholders and policymakers dealing with climate adaptation and flood risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100798"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144770635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Identifying key drivers of heatwaves: A novel spatio-temporal framework for extreme event detection 识别热浪的关键驱动因素:极端事件检测的新时空框架
IF 6.9 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100792
J. Pérez-Aracil , C. Peláez-Rodríguez , Ronan McAdam , Antonello Squintu , Cosmin M. Marina , Eugenio Lorente-Ramos , Niklas Luther , Verónica Torralba , Enrico Scoccimarro , Leone Cavicchia , Matteo Giuliani , Eduardo Zorita , Felicitas Hansen , David Barriopedro , Ricardo García-Herrera , Pedro A. Gutiérrez , Jürg Luterbacher , Elena Xoplaki , Andrea Castelletti , S. Salcedo-Sanz
{"title":"Identifying key drivers of heatwaves: A novel spatio-temporal framework for extreme event detection","authors":"J. Pérez-Aracil ,&nbsp;C. Peláez-Rodríguez ,&nbsp;Ronan McAdam ,&nbsp;Antonello Squintu ,&nbsp;Cosmin M. Marina ,&nbsp;Eugenio Lorente-Ramos ,&nbsp;Niklas Luther ,&nbsp;Verónica Torralba ,&nbsp;Enrico Scoccimarro ,&nbsp;Leone Cavicchia ,&nbsp;Matteo Giuliani ,&nbsp;Eduardo Zorita ,&nbsp;Felicitas Hansen ,&nbsp;David Barriopedro ,&nbsp;Ricardo García-Herrera ,&nbsp;Pedro A. Gutiérrez ,&nbsp;Jürg Luterbacher ,&nbsp;Elena Xoplaki ,&nbsp;Andrea Castelletti ,&nbsp;S. Salcedo-Sanz","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100792","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100792","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heatwaves (HWs) are extreme atmospheric events that produce significant societal and environmental impacts. Predicting these extreme events remains challenging, as their complex interactions with large-scale atmospheric and climatic variables are difficult to capture with traditional statistical and dynamical models. This work presents a general method for driver identification in extreme climate events. A novel framework named Spatio-Temporal Cluster-Optimized Feature Selection (STCO-FS) is proposed to identify key immediate (short-term) HW drivers by combining clustering algorithms with an ensemble evolutionary algorithm. The framework analyzes spatio-temporal data, reduces dimensionality by grouping similar geographical grid cells for each variable, and develops driver selection in spatial and temporal domains, identifying the best time lags between predictive variables and HW occurrences. The proposed method has been applied to analyze HWs in the Adda river basin in Italy. The approach effectively identifies significant variables influencing HWs in this region. This research can potentially enhance our understanding of HW drivers and predictability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100792"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144860686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The role of extreme precipitation in driving the humidification of northwest China from 1961 to 2020 1961 - 2020年极端降水对西北地区加湿的驱动作用
IF 6.9 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100797
Lijuan Hua , Linhao Zhong , Zhaohui Gong , Zhuguo Ma
{"title":"The role of extreme precipitation in driving the humidification of northwest China from 1961 to 2020","authors":"Lijuan Hua ,&nbsp;Linhao Zhong ,&nbsp;Zhaohui Gong ,&nbsp;Zhuguo Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100797","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100797","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Northwest China is a typical arid and semi-arid region, and a critical climate-sensitive and vulnerable area. Over the past few decades, the region has experienced a significant humidification trend. Understanding the characteristics and trends of precipitation and atmospheric water cycles in this region is crucial for predicting the future evolution of this humidification process. Based on observational and reanalysis data, this study categorizes precipitation events in Northwest China from 1961 to 2020 into 20 class intervals. The analysis reveals that over 70 % of the total increasing trend in precipitation is due to the upper 10 % of daily precipitation events, and the rise in extreme precipitation frequency accounting for most of the observed changes, in which the contribution rate of the increase in frequency is approximately 10 times that of the increase in intensity. A 15-day backward moisture tracing analysis indicates that approximately 69 % of the moisture in the region originates from terrestrial evaporation, and 21 % contributed by local evaporation within Northwest China. Compared to light precipitation events, strong precipitation events are associated with more substantial external moisture transport, higher regional recycling ratios, and greater precipitation efficiency. Further analysis shows that over the past 60 years, the residence time of moisture associated with the precipitation events in Northwest China is 8.6 days. The extreme events above the 95th precipitation percentile have a mean moisture residence time of about 5 days, with an increasing trend that is mainly driven by the establishment and enhancement of the cross-equatorial moisture transport channel from the Indian Ocean. Concurrently, the decline in moisture contributions from terrestrial sources in the westerly belt, combined with strengthened regional evaporation, has further improved precipitation efficiency. These factors have led to a significant increase in the number of days with extreme precipitation events in Northwest China, serving as a primary driver of the humidification trend of this region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100797"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144770634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multi-task feature transfer deep learning-based tropical cyclone center estimation (MFT–TC) using geostationary satellite observations 基于多任务特征转移深度学习的地球同步卫星热带气旋中心估计
IF 6.9 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-07-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100796
Juhyun Lee , Il-Ju Moon , Jungho Im , Dong-Hoon Kim , Hyeyoon Jung
{"title":"Multi-task feature transfer deep learning-based tropical cyclone center estimation (MFT–TC) using geostationary satellite observations","authors":"Juhyun Lee ,&nbsp;Il-Ju Moon ,&nbsp;Jungho Im ,&nbsp;Dong-Hoon Kim ,&nbsp;Hyeyoon Jung","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100796","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100796","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate and rapid tropical cyclone (TC) monitoring is crucial for precise forecasting and appropriate response to mitigate socio-economic damages. Geostationary satellite-based observations are the only tools that allow continuous monitoring of TCs throughout their entire lifetime, from formation to dissipation. However, owing to the diversity of TC structures, the automatic extraction of TC information using geostationary satellite-based cloud-top observations is still challenging. To address this limitation, several deep-learning-based approaches for extracting TC information have been developed. Here, we propose a novel deep learning-based TC center estimation approach using real-time geostationary satellite observations. To reduce computational costs while capturing both the entire TC structure and high-resolution spiral patterns, we propose a multi-task feature transfer deep learning-based TC center estimation (MFT–TC). This model effectively considers both the entire spiral band and focuses on specific local characteristics of TC while maintaining high computing efficiency, reducing computing costs by 47 %). Compared to the conventional single-CNN-based TC center determination model, which has been widely used in previous studies, the proposed model achieved significant improvements, with skill score increases ranging from 12 % to 39 %. Additionally, since there are significant structural differences between TCs with and without an eye, MFT–TC was evaluated under two different schemes based on the training sets: scheme 1, which uses separate training datasets depending on whether the TC has an eye (MFT–TC-div) and scheme 2, which uses all TC cases combined (MFT–TC-whl). Evaluation results showed scheme 1-based MFT–TC achieved a 14.8 % improvement over scheme 2-based MFT–TC, suggesting that separating training samples based on TC eye presence enhances the accuracy of TC center estimation. Furthermore, using the explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approach, we demonstrated that MFT–TC efficiently captures both overall cyclonic structures and center-specific spatial characteristics to estimate the TC center accurately.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100796"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144669788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Decadal swing in NAO variability and summertime heat extremes in South Korea over recent decades 近几十年来NAO变率和韩国夏季极端高温的年代际变化
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100795
Jung-Hee Ryu , Song-Lak Kang
{"title":"Decadal swing in NAO variability and summertime heat extremes in South Korea over recent decades","authors":"Jung-Hee Ryu ,&nbsp;Song-Lak Kang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100795","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100795","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>South Korea experienced a lull in heatwave occurrences from the late 1990s to the early 2010s (referred to as “P1”), followed by significant heatwaves in the early 2010s (referred to as “P2”). To understand this decadal variation despite ongoing global warming, we examined the link between heatwaves in South Korea and decadal shifts in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability. Planetary-scale waves originating from Greenland in response to the NAO influence atmospheric circulation across Europe, Northeast Asia (including the Korean Peninsula), and North America, primarily on interannual scales. Specifically, positive NAO phases enhance anticyclonic circulations over the Korean Peninsula, increasing surface temperatures and heatwave frequency. During P1, the NAO exhibited a declining trend and reduced interannual variability, influenced by remote tropical Pacific forcing. Our results also suggested the potential influence of the Atlantic Ocean forcing on the rising trend of the NAO during P2, alongside a phase shift in tropical Pacific forcing. These findings highlight the role of large-scale climate variability—shaped by complex interactions among NAO trends, tropical Pacific forcing, and North Atlantic forcing, with potential contributions from anthropogenic forcing—in driving the decadal fluctuations in local heat extremes, particularly in South Korea.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100795"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144622628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The contribution of climate drivers to compound drought and extreme temperature events increased in recent decades 近几十年来,气候驱动因素对复合干旱和极端温度事件的贡献有所增加
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100793
Siyi Li , Bin Wang , De Li Liu , Chao Chen , Puyu Feng , Alfredo Huete , Keyu Xiang , Qiang Yu
{"title":"The contribution of climate drivers to compound drought and extreme temperature events increased in recent decades","authors":"Siyi Li ,&nbsp;Bin Wang ,&nbsp;De Li Liu ,&nbsp;Chao Chen ,&nbsp;Puyu Feng ,&nbsp;Alfredo Huete ,&nbsp;Keyu Xiang ,&nbsp;Qiang Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100793","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100793","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compound climate extremes severely impact crops more than individual events. Understanding historical changes in compound extreme events and their drivers is crucial for managing climate risks and protecting crop survival. Using a hybrid biophysical-statistical modeling approach, we investigated the connections between large-scale climate drivers of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)/Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and compound drought and extreme temperature (DET) across Australia's wheat belt from 1900 to 2020. DET in eastern Australia's wheat belt was more responsive to ENSO/IOD compared to the west. El Niño and positive IOD phases intensified DET and increased the probability of high-intensity DET, whereas La Niña and negative IOD reduced them. Probabilities of high-intensity DET have exhibited a temporal increase, during the strong El Niño phase and the positive IOD phase. Our findings highlight the need to assess the spatial-temporal response of compound events to climate drivers for effective early warning and mitigation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100793"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trends and variability of heat waves in Europe and the association with large-scale circulation patterns 欧洲热浪的趋势和变率及其与大尺度环流模式的关系
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100794
Loredana Boboc , Mihai Dima , Petru Vaideanu , Monica Ionita
{"title":"Trends and variability of heat waves in Europe and the association with large-scale circulation patterns","authors":"Loredana Boboc ,&nbsp;Mihai Dima ,&nbsp;Petru Vaideanu ,&nbsp;Monica Ionita","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100794","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100794","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heat waves, defined by consecutive days of abnormally high temperatures exceeding local or regional norms, have been extensively studied during the summer season. However, their characteristics and driving forces in mid-to-late spring (April and May) and early autumn (September) remain poorly understood. This study employed Empirical Orthogonal Functions and composite analysis to investigate the frequency, trend, and spatio-temporal variability of heat waves across Europe from 1921 to 2021. Our analysis reveals a significant upward trend in heat wave occurrences across most European regions, with a notable surge in the last three decades, beginning in the early 1990s. Furthermore, an increase in heat wave events has been observed in both mid-to-late spring and early autumn. The decade of 2011-2021 exhibited the highest number of recorded heat waves, with particularly intense periods, in terms of both frequency and spatial extent, occurring in 2003, 2007, 2012, 2015, and 2018. The most pronounced rise in heat wave frequency is evident in southern regions, including Spain, France, and Italy, extending through Central Europe and the Fennoscandian Peninsula. Southern and eastern regions display the most significant increase compared to previous periods. We identified three distinct blocking patterns potentially influencing the observed spatial and temporal variability of heat waves across spring, summer, and autumn. The first pattern corresponds to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The second is characterized by a blocking pattern over Fennoscandia (Scandinavian blocking). The third exhibits a high-pressure system in the west and low-pressure anomalies in the east. These findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the seasonal characteristics, underlying mechanisms, and driving forces of heat waves in Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100794"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impacts of solar radiation modification on temperature extremes and heatwaves in Southeast Asia 太阳辐射变化对东南亚极端温度和热浪的影响
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100789
Zeqian Feng , Mou Leong Tan , Mohd Amirul Mahamud , Joon Chuah , Fei Zhang
{"title":"Impacts of solar radiation modification on temperature extremes and heatwaves in Southeast Asia","authors":"Zeqian Feng ,&nbsp;Mou Leong Tan ,&nbsp;Mohd Amirul Mahamud ,&nbsp;Joon Chuah ,&nbsp;Fei Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100789","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100789","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as a rapid solution to mitigate temperature rise, but its effects on regional temperature extremes and heatwaves remain underexplored. Southeast Asia, a region highly vulnerable to climate change due to its unique environmental and socio-economic conditions, necessitates detailed assessments of SRM impacts. This study evaluates the effects of SRM using two scenarios, G6Solar and G6Sulfur, alongside traditional emissions pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Downscaled and bias-corrected GeoMIP6 datasets are analyzed for selected temperature and heatwave indices across 20 Southeast Asian sub-regions from 2020 to 2099. Under SSP585, annual maximum temperatures (TXx) by 2099 are projected to increase by 4–6 °C relative to the baseline, with heatwave characteristics intensifying substantially. Heatwave duration (HWD) could rise by 40–180 days, while occurrences (HWN) may increase 3–5 times, and intensity (HWA) could escalate by 5–6 °C. In contrast, SRM scenarios effectively moderate these impacts, aligning closer to the moderate SSP245 scenario. Between the two SRM approaches, G6Sulfur proves slightly more effective than G6Solar in reducing temperature extremes particularly in continental regions. Under SRM, heatwave frequency, duration, and intensity are less severe compared to SSP585, though spatial variability in effectiveness is observed and with minimal differences in mainland Southeast Asia. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of SRM's impacts on temperature extremes and heatwaves in Southeast Asia, utilizing a multi-model ensemble across multiple SRM and SSP scenarios. By focusing on a region often underrepresented in SRM research, this work offers critical insights for policymakers considering SRM as a climate mitigation strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100789"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamical systems methods to understand projected heatwave intensification 理解预估热浪增强的动力系统方法
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100791
Eylon Vakrat, Paul J. Kushner
{"title":"Dynamical systems methods to understand projected heatwave intensification","authors":"Eylon Vakrat,&nbsp;Paul J. Kushner","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100791","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100791","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heatwaves pose well-known health dangers, and carry socio-economic and ecological consequences. Blocking highs typically drive such heatwaves during the European summer. The dynamics, surface impacts, and sensitivity to climate forcing of such events are of great interest, but because analysis of these events is sensitive to methodological details, a multi-faceted approach is needed to derive robust results. Such an analysis is carried out here, for observations and future projections. Heatwaves at meteorological stations, defined in terms of the discomfort index, which combines temperature and humidity, are well-captured in reanalysis. Reanalysis also reveals an expected equivalent-barotropic anticyclonic anomaly, with anomalously slow midtropospheric westerlies, associated with these heatwaves. A strong spatial correspondence to this structure is also found with a dynamical-systems theoretic analysis. The latter extracts the most-persistent patterns of midtropospheric flow in terms of the so-called ‘persistence metric’, <span><math><mrow><msup><mi>θ</mi><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>. Heatwaves and blocks are far more likely to occur during persistent states. Historic and end-of-21st-century projections capture similar behavior, and the distribution of projected <span><math><mrow><msup><mi>θ</mi><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span> remains largely unchanged, indicating little change in extreme-event persistence. Neither the frequency nor the duration of persistent blocks changes in end-of-century projections, but heatwave intensity does increase. The conclusion is thus that the projected intensification of heatwaves arises from a thermodynamic mechanism and not a dynamic one. This conclusion depends on removing a multi-year running mean background from the flow for the persistence analysis. Without this high-pass filtering, a projected secular increase in persistence arises as the flow becomes characterized by a regional warming trend pattern.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100791"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Vegetation drought condition index for probabilistic monitoring and forecasting of vegetation drought 用于植被干旱概率监测与预报的植被干旱状况指数
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100786
Jeongeun Won , Jeongju Lee , Sangdan Kim
{"title":"Vegetation drought condition index for probabilistic monitoring and forecasting of vegetation drought","authors":"Jeongeun Won ,&nbsp;Jeongju Lee ,&nbsp;Sangdan Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100786","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100786","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the impacts of meteorological drought on vegetation have intensified, there is a growing need for a system that can quantitatively assess and forecast vegetation drought. This study proposes a vegetation drought monitoring and forecasting framework utilizing a copula-based probabilistic approach to address this need. By constructing a joint probability distribution between a meteorological drought index and a vegetation index, we developed the Vegetation Drought Condition Index (VDCI), which was then integrated with numerical weather prediction data to establish a probabilistic vegetation drought forecasting framework. The VDCI is capable of selectively detecting vegetation stress caused by meteorological conditions and enables the quantitative assessment of drought severity through a four-level vegetation drought classification criteria. Spatial and temporal analyses confirmed that the VDCI can identify vegetation drought more clearly than individual indices. Moreover, the probabilistic forecasting framework demonstrated excellent forecasting performance with an average F1-score of approximately 0.9 across all pixels. This study proposes a framework enabling quantitative monitoring and forecasting of vegetation drought based on the probabilistic relationship between meteorological drought and vegetation response, and is expected to contribute to the development of ecosystem-based drought early warning and response strategies in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100786"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144515466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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