Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献

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Fast generation of high-dimensional spatial extremes 快速生成高维空间极值
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100732
Hans Van de Vyver
{"title":"Fast generation of high-dimensional spatial extremes","authors":"Hans Van de Vyver","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100732","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100732","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Widespread extreme climate events cause many fatalities, economic losses and have a huge impact on critical infrastructure. It is therefore of utmost importance to estimate the frequency and associated consequences of spatially concurrent extremes. Impact studies of climate extremes are severely hampered by the lack of extreme observations, and even large ensembles of climate simulations often do not include enough extreme or record-breaking climate events for robust analysis. On the other hand, weather generators specifically fitted to extreme observations can quickly generate many physically or statistically plausible extreme events, even with intensities that have never been observed before. We propose a Fourier-based algorithm for generating high-resolution synthetic datasets of rare events, using essential concepts of classical modelling of (spatial) extremes. Here, the key feature is that the stochastically generated datasets have the same spatial dependence as the observed extreme events. Using high-resolution gridded precipitation and temperature datasets, we show that the new algorithm produces realistic spatial patterns, and is particularly attractive compared to other existing methods for spatial extremes. It is exceptionally fast, easy to implement, scalable to high dimensions and, in principle, applicable for any spatial resolution. We generated datasets with 10,000 gridpoints, a number that can be increased without difficulty. Since current impact models often require high-resolution climate inputs, the new algorithm is particularly useful for improved impact and vulnerability assessment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100732"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142526695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Anthropogenic influence on precipitation in Aotearoa New Zealand with differing circulation types 不同环流类型对新西兰奥特亚罗瓦降水的人为影响
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100727
Anjali Thomas , Adrian McDonald , James Renwick , Suzanne Rosier , Jordis S. Tradowsky , Gregory E. Bodeker
{"title":"Anthropogenic influence on precipitation in Aotearoa New Zealand with differing circulation types","authors":"Anjali Thomas ,&nbsp;Adrian McDonald ,&nbsp;James Renwick ,&nbsp;Suzanne Rosier ,&nbsp;Jordis S. Tradowsky ,&nbsp;Gregory E. Bodeker","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100727","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100727","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study quantifies the influences of anthropogenic forcing to date on precipitation over Aotearoa New Zealand (ANZ). Large ensembles of simulations from the weather@home regional climate model experiments are analysed under two scenarios, a natural (NAT) or counter-factual scenario which excludes human-induced changes to the climate system and an anthropogenic (ANT) or factual scenario. The impacts of anthropogenic forcing on precipitation are analysed in the context of large-scale circulation types characterized using an existing Self Organizing Map classification. The combined effect of both thermodynamics and dynamics are compared with values expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relation. Changes in the precipitation intensity due to greenhouse gas-forced temperature rise are lower than the expected C–C value. However extreme precipitation changes approach the C–C value for some circulation types. Specifically westerly flows enhance precipitation change across ANZ relative to the C–C rate, particularly over the West Coast. Conversely, northwesterly flows reduce the change over the North Island relative to the C–C value. Moreover, the wet day frequency generally reduces in the ANT scenario relative to NAT, reductions are largest on the West Coast of the South Island for westerly flows. Additionally, the frequency of days with extreme precipitation rises over ANZ for most circulation patterns, except in Northland and for northwesterly flows. This underscores the combined influence of dynamics and thermodynamics in shaping both precipitation intensity and frequency patterns across ANZ.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100727"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142428191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The 2022 record-high heat waves over southwestern Europe and their underlying mechanism 2022 年欧洲西南部上空创纪录的高温热浪及其内在机制
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100729
Jeong-Hun Kim , So-Hyun Nam , Maeng-Ki Kim , Roberto Serrano-Notivoli , Ernesto Tejedor
{"title":"The 2022 record-high heat waves over southwestern Europe and their underlying mechanism","authors":"Jeong-Hun Kim ,&nbsp;So-Hyun Nam ,&nbsp;Maeng-Ki Kim ,&nbsp;Roberto Serrano-Notivoli ,&nbsp;Ernesto Tejedor","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100729","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100729","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recently, the intensity and frequency of heat waves (HWs) have been increased worldwide. Particularly in 2022, Europe was severely affected by unprecedented HWs, which caused approximately 61,672 deaths and 11,324 deaths in Europe and Spain, respectively. In this study, we investigate the mechanisms of the HWs in southwestern Europe (SWEU) to identify the differences between typical HWs and the extreme HWs that occurred in 2022. Our results showed that the SWEU events in 2022 were strongly related to robust heat domes that developed in the lower troposphere due to high-pressure anomalies especially during two periods (9–18 June and 8–19 July). Analyses of the energy budget and thermodynamic equation revealed the processes underlying the amplification of the heat domes over SWEU during both periods. We also discovered that abnormal atmospheric blocking in the upper troposphere was closely associated with the amplification of the Gulf Stream SST, which caused an atmospheric circulation pattern favorable for the 2022 SWEU-HWs. This was further confirmed by modeling experiments. Therefore, our results emphasize that a Gulf Stream SST amplification can trigger an atmospheric circulation pattern favorable for extreme HWs in SWEU, enhancing our understanding of the mechanism behind extreme HWs. Finally, our findings will help improving the forecasting of SWEU-HWs on a sub-seasonal time scale, as well as future projections in global climate models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100729"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142428372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The flash droughts across the south-central United States in 2022: Drivers, predictability, and impacts 2022 年美国中南部的暴旱:驱动因素、可预测性和影响
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100730
Jordan I. Christian , Taylor M. Grace , Benjamin J. Fellman , Daniel F. Mesheske , Stuart G. Edris , Henry O. Olayiwola , Jeffrey B. Basara , Brian A. Fuchs , Jason C. Furtado
{"title":"The flash droughts across the south-central United States in 2022: Drivers, predictability, and impacts","authors":"Jordan I. Christian ,&nbsp;Taylor M. Grace ,&nbsp;Benjamin J. Fellman ,&nbsp;Daniel F. Mesheske ,&nbsp;Stuart G. Edris ,&nbsp;Henry O. Olayiwola ,&nbsp;Jeffrey B. Basara ,&nbsp;Brian A. Fuchs ,&nbsp;Jason C. Furtado","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100730","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100730","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A rare subseasonal-to-seasonal phenomenon – two consecutive flash drought events interrupted by a period of recovery – occurred across eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri, spanning the summer and early fall of 2022. These flash drought events (the first in June–July, the second in August–September) led to severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought conditions via the United States Drought Monitor across much of the region following the first period of rapid drought intensification, and extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought conditions by the end of the second event. A notable driver of both flash drought events included a persistent upper-level ridge either centered over or shifted west and upstream of the flash drought region, leading to broad-scale subsidence and reduced mid-level moisture which acted to limit precipitation development and increase evaporative demand. In addition, several heatwave events developed during the warm season in 2022 and either (1) acted to drive flash drought development via increased evaporative demand or (2) were enhanced by land surface desiccation and land-atmosphere feedbacks following rapid drought intensification. Furthermore, S2S composite forecasts predicted drought development for both events. However, only 20% of the ensembles predicted rapid drought development associated with flash drought for the first event and 16% of the ensembles predicted rapid drought development during the second event. This result highlights a key challenge in S2S prediction of rapidly developing drought conditions versus that of more conventional and slower drought development. The ensembles that did predict rapid drought intensification were associated with the forecasting of positive 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the south-central United States (first event) or an amplified wave pattern centered over the west-central United States (second event). Lastly, the compounding effects of two flash droughts in a single warm season led to substantial impacts on agricultural, environmental, and hydrologic sectors across the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100730"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142428409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Future changes of socioeconomic exposure to potential landslide hazards over mainland China 中国大陆潜在滑坡灾害对社会经济影响的未来变化
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100731
Donghuan Li , Youcun Qi , Tianjun Zhou , Wenxia Zhang
{"title":"Future changes of socioeconomic exposure to potential landslide hazards over mainland China","authors":"Donghuan Li ,&nbsp;Youcun Qi ,&nbsp;Tianjun Zhou ,&nbsp;Wenxia Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100731","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100731","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Landslides are among the most destructive natural disasters, having huge socioeconomic impacts. Here, we investigate future changes in potential rainfall-induced landslide activities and their socioeconomic consequences in mainland China using CMIP6 simulations under five combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The potential landslide activities over mainland China are projected to increase over the 21st century. The regional mean increases over mainland China under the SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, at the end of the 21st century, are approximately 20.6%, 24.8%, 27.2%, 33.1%, and 46.5%, respectively, compared to present day. Population exposure to potential landslide hazards is projected to increase under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, but decline under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios due to population reduction. Meanwhile, economic exposure is expected to rise substantially across mainland China due to the greatly increased GDP. In general, the most populous and economically developed southern China will experience the largest socioeconomic exposure percentage increase among the subregions due to the joint influence of climate change and socioeconomic change. Compared with SSP1-1.9 scenario, the higher emission levels of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 will result in 20.4%, 32.0%, 60.6%, and 125.8% more increases in potential landslide days and 16.2%, 42.9%, 80.3%, and 4.6% less increases in anti-risk capacity (ability to resist landslide risk) in mainland China, respectively, at the end of the 21st century. The southern Tibetan Plateau is projected to experience greater increases in landslide days and decreases in anti-risk capacity than other subregions, if high emission scenarios are selected over SSP1-1.9.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100731"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142552518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Downscaling, bias correction, and spatial adjustment of extreme tropical cyclone rainfall in ERA5 using deep learning 利用深度学习对ERA5中的极端热带气旋降雨量进行降尺度、纠偏和空间调整
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100724
Guido Ascenso , Andrea Ficchì , Matteo Giuliani , Enrico Scoccimarro , Andrea Castelletti
{"title":"Downscaling, bias correction, and spatial adjustment of extreme tropical cyclone rainfall in ERA5 using deep learning","authors":"Guido Ascenso ,&nbsp;Andrea Ficchì ,&nbsp;Matteo Giuliani ,&nbsp;Enrico Scoccimarro ,&nbsp;Andrea Castelletti","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100724","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100724","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hydrological models that are used to analyse flood risk induced by tropical cyclones often input ERA5 reanalysis data. However, ERA5 precipitation has large systematic biases, especially over heavy precipitation events like Tropical Cyclones, compromising its usefulness in such scenarios. Few studies to date have performed bias correction of ERA5 precipitation and none of them for extreme rainfall induced by tropical cyclones. Additionally, most existing works on bias adjustment focus on adjusting pixel-wise metrics of bias, such as the Mean Squared Error (MSE). However, it is equally important to ensure that the rainfall peaks are correctly located within the rainfall maps, especially if these maps are then used as input to hydrological models. In this paper, we describe a novel machine learning model that addresses both gaps, RA-U<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mi>c</mi><mi>m</mi><mi>p</mi><mi>d</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>, based on the popular U-Net model. The key novelty of RA-U<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mi>c</mi><mi>m</mi><mi>p</mi><mi>d</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> is its loss function, the <em>compound loss</em>, which optimizes both a pixel-wise bias metric (the MSE) and a spatial verification metric (a modified version of the Fractions Skill Score). Our results show how RA-U<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mi>c</mi><mi>m</mi><mi>p</mi><mi>d</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> improves ERA5 in almost all metrics by 3-28%—more than the other models we used for comparison which actually worsen the total rainfall bias of ERA5—at the cost of a slightly increased (3%) error on the magnitude of the peak. We analyse the behaviour of RA-U<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mi>c</mi><mi>m</mi><mi>p</mi><mi>d</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> by visualizing accumulated maps of four particularly wet tropical cyclones and by dividing our data according to the Saffir-Simpson scale and to whether they made landfall, and we perform an error analysis to understand under what conditions our model performs best.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100724"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142428370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Increasing extreme flood risk under future climate change scenarios in South Korea” [Weather Clim. Extrem. 39 (2023) 1–12, 100552] 韩国未来气候变化情景下极端洪水风险增加"[Weather Clim. Extrem.
IF 8 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100726
S. Kim, J.-H. Kwon, J.-S. Om, T. Lee, G. Kim, H. Kim, J.-H. Heo
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Increasing extreme flood risk under future climate change scenarios in South Korea” [Weather Clim. Extrem. 39 (2023) 1–12, 100552]","authors":"S. Kim, J.-H. Kwon, J.-S. Om, T. Lee, G. Kim, H. Kim, J.-H. Heo","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100726","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100726","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142329785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The 2019–21 drought in southern Madagascar 马达加斯加南部 2019-21 年旱灾
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100723
Rondrotiana Barimalala , Caroline Wainwright , Erik W. Kolstad , Teferi D. Demissie
{"title":"The 2019–21 drought in southern Madagascar","authors":"Rondrotiana Barimalala ,&nbsp;Caroline Wainwright ,&nbsp;Erik W. Kolstad ,&nbsp;Teferi D. Demissie","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100723","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100723","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Two consecutive failed rainy seasons in the southern part of Madagascar in 2019–21 had devastating impacts on the population, including an amplification of the ongoing food insecurity in the area. The drought events were second in severity only to the 1990–92 drought and were estimated in a previous study to have a return period of 135 years. In this study, the physical mechanisms that led to these consecutive drought events are investigated.</div><div>We found that the anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that persisted to the south of Madagascar between December 2019 and December 2020 led to a decrease in the transport of moist air over land. These cold SST anomalies were the most negative anomalies in the past four decades and intensified the rainfall deficit resulting from a negative Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) mode during the rainy season of December 2019 to March 2020 and during December 2020. We also found that the rainfall response to the SST anomaly south of Madagascar was three times greater than that of a canonical SIOD.</div><div>A weak Mozambique Channel Trough and a strong Angola low system, on the other hand, modulated the expected above-normal rainfall from a La Niña event in January–February 2021. Our study demonstrates how local factors can modulate the impacts of large-scale drivers, and that both local and global drivers, and their interactions, should be considered when producing seasonal forecasts and advisories, as well as climate change adaptation and mitigation plans for southern Madagascar.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100723"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142319661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intrinsic short Marine Heatwaves from the perspective of sea surface temperature and height 从海面温度和高度角度看固有的短海洋热浪
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100725
Yuwei Hu , Xiao Hua Wang , Helen Beggs , Chunzai Wang
{"title":"Intrinsic short Marine Heatwaves from the perspective of sea surface temperature and height","authors":"Yuwei Hu ,&nbsp;Xiao Hua Wang ,&nbsp;Helen Beggs ,&nbsp;Chunzai Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100725","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100725","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have recently been recognized as extreme climate events considering their devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. Our study explored the spatial and temporal variability of short (duration &lt;10 days) and long MHWs in nine sub-regions around the Australian coastal region using the original (5-day) and an updated longer duration (10-day) criteria for MHW identification based on gap-free Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analyses from 1981 to 2020. By quantitatively investigating the contribution of ocean warming to short MHWs, we could consider most of the short events as background signals of a dynamic ocean surface over the Australian region. The application of the updated definition highlights areas that are more sensitive to local internal forcings, especially over the main flow of the East Australian Current. Furthermore, the Great Barrier Reef exhibit a larger increasing trend of MHW areas after excluding the short events. By numerically and graphically evaluating the relationship between the sea level anomaly (SLA) and SST metrics over two coastal regions of Australia, it is found that longer MHWs exhibiting two variation trends of large SLA metrics are ENSO dominant in the northwest coastal region (NW), and less ENSO-dominant but geographically-impacted in the southeast coastal region (SETS). However, it is possible that most short events in these two regions are a result of local and intrinsic variability or ocean warming of the water columns rather than the remote modulation of climate modes. Moreover, SLA over the 90th percentile, which successfully observed a subsurface MHW event over the NW region in 2008, has the potential to help identify subsurface MHWs, although limited by application area. Further investigation into the applicability of these, or other similar, updates to the MHW definitions may be warranted, to draw a broadly applicable conclusion to benefit detection and prediction of strong sub-surface MHWs impacting commercial and environmental activities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100725"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000860/pdfft?md5=341b1461867d6b8129228be8bd35980c&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000860-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142315559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling in 2022 CONUS compound drought-heatwave events and implications for forecasting 2022 年 CONUS 复合干旱-热浪事件中陆地-大气耦合的贡献及其对预报的影响
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学
Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100722
Donghyuck Yoon , Jan-Huey Chen , Eunkyo Seo
{"title":"Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling in 2022 CONUS compound drought-heatwave events and implications for forecasting","authors":"Donghyuck Yoon ,&nbsp;Jan-Huey Chen ,&nbsp;Eunkyo Seo","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100722","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100722","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Severe compound drought-heatwave events were observed over three regions of the Contiguous United States (CONUS), Northwest (NW), Great Plains (GP), and Northeast (NE) regions, during July and August 2022. In this study, we have found that the developments of these drought-heatwave events were shaped by different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors which are associated with water and energy limitation regimes in these regions. In the NW and GP regions, the surface soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) were coupled through water-limited processes. Heatwaves in these two regions were affected by the decrease of ET and the available SM due to the precipitation deficit. This type of land-atmosphere coupling was especially prominent in the GP. In the NE region, the heatwave governed ET through the increase of potential ET (PET) based on energy-limited coupling, which played a crucial role in the development of drought.</p><p>The impacts of the different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors on the predictability of the 13-km Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD) were also investigated by checking its 10-day forecasts during the same period. The analysis was particularly focused on the GP and NE regions, where different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors were observed. The model's warm bias in the GP region was associated with the overestimated net radiation, and the bias was further amplified through the water-limited coupling. In the NE region, the PET-related variables, including surface air temperature, influenced the predictability of drought onset by limiting ET through the energy-limited coupling. Based on our findings, this study highlights the crucial role of land-atmosphere coupling behaviors and provides a scientific strategy for enhancing the model predictability of compound drought-heatwaves.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100722"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000835/pdfft?md5=1fbba52bfc1f681f204a5078e035a0f4&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000835-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142238912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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