Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献

{"title":"Identifying recurring patterns of extreme daily precipitation using K-means algorithm: Uncovering spatial shift driven by climate change over the Italian Peninsula","authors":"I. Manco ,&nbsp;O.M. Feitosa ,&nbsp;M. Raffa ,&nbsp;P. Schiano ,&nbsp;G. Rianna ,&nbsp;P. Mercogliano","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100849","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100849","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study is aimed at investigating the spatial-time pattern of extreme daily precipitation events on the entire Italian peninsula using a k-means cluster analysis that is applied to high-resolution climate projections. Research analyzes data from the VHR-PRO_IT dataset with a resolution of 2.2 km and examines both historical (1981–2005) and future periods (2035–2065) under the concentration scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The clustering methodology identifies 13 different precipitation patterns and illustrates the decisive influence of complex orography, geographical location and maritime influence in shaping extreme precipitation regimes. The results show considerable seasonal fluctuations in precipitation patterns, with the highest intensities being observed in winter, especially in mountain regions. Future projections indicate an increase in rainfall variability in the entire area, whereby the standard deviation under RCP4.5 scenarios increases by about 19 % and 17 % under RCP8.5 scenarios. One of the remarkable changes includes intensification of precipitation in the Eastern Alps and northern Apennin, while a decreasing trend is observed in Sicily, Sardinia, and generally along the Tyrrhenian coast during the Summer. The k-means clustering analysis highlights the variations in precipitation patterns across different regions of Italy, identifying areas most vulnerable to extreme daily events and linking them to potential large-scale changes associated with future shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. The high-resolution data (2.2 km) enables the representation of mesoscale phenomena and regional variations, and the results provide data to support climate adaptation planning by mapping precipitation distribution changes under future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100849"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145845315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Has the fire weather index emerged? Insights from global and regional climate models","authors":"Rita Nogherotto ,&nbsp;Francesca Raffaele ,&nbsp;Graziano Giuliani ,&nbsp;Erika Coppola","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100861","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100861","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wildfires are expected to become more intense due to global warming. This change will significantly affect ecosystems and communities. We examine when and where fire weather conditions go beyond natural variability by using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). We analyze data from CORDEX-CORE and EURO-CORDEX regional simulations, along with CMIP5 and CMIP6 global models, under the RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The study spans from 1980 to 2099 and focuses on Global Warming Levels (GWLs) ranging from +1.5 to +4.0 °C compared to pre-industrial climate.</div><div>When we evaluate against GEFF-ERA5 reanalysis, we find that the CORDEX ensemble better reflects historical FWI trends compared to CMIP5 and CMIP6. Projections show widespread increases in FWI, primarily due to higher temperatures and lower relative humidity, along with regional impacts from precipitation and wind. The danger class analyses indicate a shift toward Extreme and Very Extreme conditions in the Mediterranean, southern Africa, South America, and Australia, occurring already with 2–3 °C of warming.</div><div>The Time of Emergence (ToE) analysis reveals that human influence is already detectable in 39% of the AR6 regions, to become 81% by 2030. The Global Temperature of Emergence (GToE) suggests that over 25% of burnable land areas will cross emergence thresholds at +1.5 °C, increasing to over 70% at +3.0 °C. The length of the fire season is also expected to increase in most regions. These findings highlight the urgent need for strategies to manage wildfire risk and adapt to these changes globally.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100861"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146072716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Suppressive effect of tropical cyclones over the South China sea on extreme rainfall in southern China","authors":"Xinyu Li ,&nbsp;Riyu Lu ,&nbsp;Ke Xu ,&nbsp;Bo Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100857","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100857","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study reveals that tropical cyclones (TCs) over the South China Sea (SCS) significantly suppress the occurrence frequency of extreme rainfall over Southern China (SC). While TCs, when they traverse the SCS, reduce rainfall across all intensities, the most pronounced suppression is observed in extreme rainfall, with reductions exceeding 40%. It is found that the unique thermal background plays an important role in favoring the rainfall suppression effect of TCs. Climatologically, SC serves as a warm and moist center in summer, characterized by high equivalent potential temperature values that stretch eastward and northward and exhibit pronounced zonal and meridional gradients. When TCs enter the SCS, SC is dominated by strong easterly anomalies on the northern flank of TCs. These anomalies induce the advection of cold, dry air over SC and lead to significant subsidence. Consequently, the occurrence frequency of extreme rainfall is substantially diminished. Further analysis of rainfall and circulation evolutions confirms the crucial role of the unique thermal background in anchoring the suppressed rainfall to the northern flank of TCs. As TCs move into the SCS and make landfall, suppressed rainfall over inland areas can persist for approximately one week, while in coastal areas, rainfall initially decreases and then transitions to extreme rainfall. This study provides a new insight into the impact of TCs on extreme rainfall over SC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100857"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146095925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling the extreme joint hazard risks of compound wind gusts and precipitation during the summer and winter periods for major cities in Canada","authors":"Shahid Latif,&nbsp;Taha B.M.J. Ouarda","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100864","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100864","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compound extremes of wind gust speed (WGS) and 24-h total precipitation amount (TPA) in summer and winter pose substantial risks for Canadian communities. Two bivariate samples are constructed at each station: annual-maximum WGS (or AMWGS) or AMTPA with corresponding TPA (or WGS), evaluated at lags 0 and ±1 day. Extreme-value copulas with one- and two-component mixture margins are fitted to estimate joint and conditional probabilities and return periods (RPs), assessing how season and timing shape co-occurrence. Across stations, OR-joint RPs are consistently shortest, Kendall RPs intermediate, and AND-joint RPs longest. As paired design quantiles rise, AND and Kendall RPs shorten, revealing significant compound risk even when individual variables are only moderate. Toronto shows the most frequent summer co-occurrence; Halifax is similar and sensitive to ±1-day offsets. Vancouver co-occurs mainly in summer, rarely in winter. Montreal and Quebec City show longer summer recurrence but notable winter stress. Calgary has high WGS but weaker WGS-TPA coupling. Regina is intermediate, with lags that weaken coupling for WGS-led pairs and can strengthen TPA-led ones. Conditional analysis at the 75th and 95th percentiles shows that modest increases in WGS or TPA shorten joint RPs. Effects are asymmetric: in summer, high WGS reduces AMTPA conditional RPs more than high TPA reduces AMWGS (strongest in Halifax, Vancouver, and Quebec City with ±1-day offsets). In winter, risk is mainly WGS-led. Parametric-bootstrap uncertainty (95% ribbons for univariate return levels; 95% ellipses for bivariate AND/OR loci) widens with RP and under heavier tails yet closely tracks the fits, supporting robustness. At Quebec City, seasonal time-varying analysis shows two regimes. Summer (AMTPA-WGS, ±1 day): dependence strengthens (late-1970s to early-1990s), pushing design points higher; AND RPs at fixed thresholds shorten <span><math><mo>(</mo><mo>∼</mo><mn>100</mn><mo>–</mo><mn>200</mn><mspace></mspace><mi>to</mi><mspace></mspace><mo>∼</mo><mn>20</mn><mo>–</mo><mn>50</mn><mspace></mspace><mi>years</mi><mo>)</mo></math></span>, OR RPs lengthen, and AMTPA conditional RPs given high WGS decline. Winter (AMWGS-TPA, 0 lag): changes are mainly driven by higher AMWGS with largely stable dependence. These findings inform hazard-reduction planning and support sustainable environmental management under compound climate extremes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100864"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mechanisms of two types of summer persistent extreme precipitation events in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Qiaohua Liu ,&nbsp;Lun Li","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100853","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100853","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) features complex terrain, and persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) are key factors inducing landslides and mudflows in the northeastern TP and its downstream regions. A comprehensive understanding of PEPEs mechanisms is crucial but remains insufficient. This study investigates PEPEs characteristics and underlying mechanisms over the northeastern TP from a synoptic perspective, by objectively classifying PEPEs into two distinct types. Type1 (thermally triggered) develops in anomalously warm and moist environments across the TP, accompanied by a localized quasi-stationary shallow trough over the northeastern TP. Convection is initiated by thermodynamic forcing, wherein latent heating dominantly increases the potential vorticity (PV) in the mid-lower troposphere, enhancing the trough and thereby precipitation. Type1 tends to develop more rapidly and persist longer compared with Type2. Type2 (dynamically forced) is closely associated with the quasi-barotropic cold trough in mid-high latitudes, developing in an overall anomalously cold and dry environment over the TP, with moisture concentrated merely in the northeast. Precipitation is triggered by intense dynamical forcing east of the trough. As the trough moves eastward, the intrusion of high-PV air from the upper troposphere enhances the cold trough through horizontal and vertical advection. The precipitation evolves along with the eastward movement of the deep trough, presenting steadier and temporally symmetrical variation relative to the peak time. The results provide knowledge about the evolution mechanisms of the two types of PEPEs in the northeastern TP triggered in different environments, favoring the PEPEs forecast and disaster prevention over the TP and downstream regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100853"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistics of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity over North China during 2009–2023","authors":"Yueyao Li ,&nbsp;Xiaopeng Cui ,&nbsp;Yun Chen ,&nbsp;Wen Bao ,&nbsp;Qing Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100856","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100856","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution and peak current (PC) characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) over North China (NC) from 2009 to 2023, based on observations from the Advanced Directional Thunderstorm Detector (ADTD) network. The results show that 4,294,310 CG flashes are detected over the 15-year period; approximately 87 % are negative CG flashes (NCG). Approximately 48 % of multi-stroke NCG contain at least one subsequent stroke with a PC exceeding that of the first stroke. The spatial distribution of CG in NC is influenced by local topography, with two density maxima located in the western mountains and the northeastern mountainous fringe. Positive CG flashes (PCG) generally concentrate along mountain–plain transition zones with steep terrain gradients in western and northern NC. CG activity exhibits pronounced interannual variability: NCG frequency decreases significantly from 2013 to 2020, which leads to a marked increase in the proportion of PCG (<em>P</em>_PCG). This interannual change may be largely attributed to the implementation of regional air pollution control measures that reduce aerosol concentrations; such reductions may alter cloud microphysics and thereby contribute to the observed CG trends. Monthly CG variability is strongly tied to monsoon activity: CG frequency peaks in the warm season, whereas <em>P</em>_PCG is higher in the cold season. More than half of thunderstorm days (TSD) in NC occur in summer. Thunderstorms typically initiate over mountains in the afternoon and propagate eastward onto the NC Plain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100856"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145995753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterizing cold surge induced storm surge in the northern East China Sea: A 60-year hindcast reveals paradoxical trends in surge heights and return levels","authors":"Xuecheng Zhang ,&nbsp;Luming Shi ,&nbsp;Bingchen Liang ,&nbsp;Guoxiang Wu ,&nbsp;Zhenlu Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100835","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100835","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recurrent cold surges represent a major hazardous weather phenomenon in the northern East China Sea. While their synoptic-scale meteorological processes are well-established, their impacts on oceanic dynamics, particularly storm surge behavior, remains insufficiently understood. This study presents the first detailed hindcast and analysis of storm surges associated with 780 cold surge events over the past 60 years. The investigation focuses on the spatiotemporal characteristics and long-term variability of these storm surges, with particular attention to changes in storm surge return levels. The results reveal a general decline in the occurrence frequency, annual maxima, and spatial extent of cold surge induced storm surges. However, a paradoxical increase in surge height return levels is observed across most coastal regions. This counterintuitive trend is attributed to shifts in the surge height distribution, characterized by a rising proportion of high-percentile surge events and a decreasing occurrence of moderate-percentile surges. This redistribution alters the exceedance probability curve by flattening the upper tail of the probability density, subsequently leading to increased 20-year and 50-year return level estimates. On a monthly scale, February exhibits the most intense and widespread storm surges. Long-term trends are evident in transitional months associated with the onset and weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon. Upward trends in maximum storm surges are found in September and March, while a declining trend is observed in April. These findings provide new insights into the evolving nature of cold surge induced storm surges and their implications for coastal disaster management and mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100835"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145567558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cattle chill events in northern Australia: observations and predictions","authors":"Rachel Taylor ,&nbsp;Tim Cowan ,&nbsp;Emily Hinds ,&nbsp;Andrew Marshall","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100870","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100870","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extended periods of cold, wet and windy conditions, known as ‘chill events', rapidly increase potential heat loss in livestock. Such events pose substantial risks to cattle, particularly breeds in northern Australia, that are acclimatised and bred for warmer conditions. Yet due to their rarity, very little is known about chill events in tropical climates, particularly during the dry season (May to October). This study provides an observational analysis of two multi-day chill events over Australia's Northern Territory in June 2007 and September 2021; combined, these events caused the deaths of over 700 cattle at two pastoral stations. Here we investigate the meteorological evolution and biometeorological severity of each event using livestock-specific thermal stress indices: the Cattle Comfort Index (CCI) and Livestock Chill Index (LCI). In both events, unusual warmth gave way to extremely cold conditions (CCI &lt; the long-term 1st percentile), including high to very high LCI values despite the events occurring during the May to October dry season. We find that established LCI absolute thresholds developed for southern sheep do not adequately reflect chill severity in northern cattle systems, underscoring the need for locally derived percentile-based measures. We also present an illustrative example of the early-warning signals for the September 2021 event that could have been produced using the Bureau of Meteorology's operational numerical weather prediction system ACCESS-G. Several forecast initialisations indicated a shift towards markedly colder conditions up to 8-10 days in advance. Our results highlight the benefit of integrating agri-climatic indices into forecast products and the need to develop region- and species-appropriate chill thresholds for northern Australia livestock.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100870"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146209779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tidal, hydrological and meteorological contributions to high-water level events in the Saint Lawrence River Estuary: Local responses to regional drivers","authors":"Silvia Innocenti ,&nbsp;Marianne Fortier ,&nbsp;Pascal Matte ,&nbsp;Caroline Sevigny ,&nbsp;Remi Gosselin ,&nbsp;Olivier Champoux","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100852","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100852","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme water levels in estuaries exhibit considerable variability on multiple spatial and temporal scales, driven by complex responses to coastal, hydrological, meteorological, geological, and anthropogenic factors. These factors complicate the prediction of high-water level events and their characteristics. Although extensive literature exists on hydroclimatic and coastal extremes, few studies conduct comprehensive statistical analyses that jointly consider multiple drivers and the spatiotemporal variability of high-water-level events in estuaries. This study addresses these gaps by developing a robust statistical framework to identify, characterize and attribute local and regional high-water-level events in the St. Lawrence River Estuary (Canada) over the period 1980–2023. Building on existing approaches, a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) formulation of non-stationary harmonic regression is used to decompose the water level variability at 11 gauging stations, with automated selection of covariates and tidal constituents. This decomposition quantifies the relative contributions of the underlying processes, enabling event classification according to their dominant coastal, tidal, or fluvial drivers. Distinct spatial patterns of tidal and non-tidal processes are observed along the fluvial estuary, and a specific transition zone is identified between dominant tidal and fluvial influences. The results indicate that non-stationary dynamics are distinct in different tidal and non-tidal frequency bands. The resulting event classification also demonstrated a different landward shift from coastal to hydrological drivers for tidal and non-tidal non-stationarity. These findings guide the statistical analysis and configuration of the hydrodynamic models used in meteorological forecasting, climate projections, and other specific applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100852"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145962699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Attribution of the 2024 record-breaking precipitation event in Southern Denmark to human-induced climate change","authors":"Matthew L. Newell ,&nbsp;Martin Drews ,&nbsp;Andrea Böhnisch ,&nbsp;Nanna Høgh Ravn ,&nbsp;Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100848","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100848","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events has been reported across the globe. These events threaten society through hazards like floods and droughts, underscoring the need to understand how such risks are evolving in a changing climate. Standardized methods have recently been introduced to assess the potential role of climate change for extreme events. The World Weather Attribution (WWA) offers a probabilistic framework to determine whether changes in the frequency and severity of extremes can be attributed to anthropogenic warming. Here we use this methodology to attribute an unprecedented rainfall event in Southern Denmark to anthropogenic climate change. On September 27, 2024, approx. 145 mm of rainfall fell over the city of Esbjerg, marking the highest daily rainfall on record for September. The event caused widespread flooding, disrupting transportation, damaging infrastructure, and affecting residential areas. This study draws on rainfall observations, reanalysis datasets, and climate model ensembles to assess the role of anthropogenic climate change. Notably, this is the first attribution study to apply ClimEx, a high-resolution, regional single-model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE). The results of the analysis show that the rainfall event was 60 % (−20 %–540 %) more likely in the current climate compared to a pre-industrial climate, and that the intensity of the event increased by 10.2 % (−3.3 %–25.6 %) due to climate change. Our findings also indicate that the frequency and intensity of such events increase with further warming. Overall, this study highlights how hazards, exposure, and vulnerabilities contribute to risk in cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100848"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145785334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}