{"title":"Discernability of the vertical vortex structure of pre-existing disturbances and their implication for tropical cyclone formation","authors":"Hung Ming Cheung , Jung-Eun Chu","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100804","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The formation of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often rooted in a pre-existing disturbance, yet our understanding of their structural differences and evolution into TCs remains limited. To bridge the knowledge gap, we examine tropical disturbances and depressions in the western North Pacific during the period 2004–2021 from a best-track dataset. Here we show four discernible structures of pre-existing disturbances in terms of their vertical and radial extents: broad vortex dominated by lower-tropospheric vorticity (Cluster 1), narrow vortex with its vorticity maximum in the lower troposphere (Cluster 2), broad and deep vortex spanning most of the troposphere (Cluster 3), and narrow vortex dominated by upper-tropospheric vorticity (Cluster 4), by applying unsupervised machine learning techniques. Out of the 2014 samples analyzed, almost 80 % exhibit vorticity maximum in the lower troposphere, while the others peak aloft. While these different structures have varying implications for stratiform and convective precipitations, there is no clear preference for specific vortex structures in pre-existing disturbances for TC genesis in the next 6 h. On the other hand, the time it takes for TC genesis or the intensification rate is more closely related to the upper-level extent of relative vorticity rather than the local maximum magnitude or radial size of the vortices. Despite the uncertainty concerning the data during the earlier lifetime, the study introduces a systematic approach to categorizing the vortex structures of pre-existing disturbances which provides new insights into their role in TC formation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100804"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Weather and Climate Extremes","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000623","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The formation of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often rooted in a pre-existing disturbance, yet our understanding of their structural differences and evolution into TCs remains limited. To bridge the knowledge gap, we examine tropical disturbances and depressions in the western North Pacific during the period 2004–2021 from a best-track dataset. Here we show four discernible structures of pre-existing disturbances in terms of their vertical and radial extents: broad vortex dominated by lower-tropospheric vorticity (Cluster 1), narrow vortex with its vorticity maximum in the lower troposphere (Cluster 2), broad and deep vortex spanning most of the troposphere (Cluster 3), and narrow vortex dominated by upper-tropospheric vorticity (Cluster 4), by applying unsupervised machine learning techniques. Out of the 2014 samples analyzed, almost 80 % exhibit vorticity maximum in the lower troposphere, while the others peak aloft. While these different structures have varying implications for stratiform and convective precipitations, there is no clear preference for specific vortex structures in pre-existing disturbances for TC genesis in the next 6 h. On the other hand, the time it takes for TC genesis or the intensification rate is more closely related to the upper-level extent of relative vorticity rather than the local maximum magnitude or radial size of the vortices. Despite the uncertainty concerning the data during the earlier lifetime, the study introduces a systematic approach to categorizing the vortex structures of pre-existing disturbances which provides new insights into their role in TC formation.
期刊介绍:
Weather and Climate Extremes
Target Audience:
Academics
Decision makers
International development agencies
Non-governmental organizations (NGOs)
Civil society
Focus Areas:
Research in weather and climate extremes
Monitoring and early warning systems
Assessment of vulnerability and impacts
Developing and implementing intervention policies
Effective risk management and adaptation practices
Engagement of local communities in adopting coping strategies
Information and communication strategies tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances