Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Increasing extreme flood risk under future climate change scenarios in South Korea” [Weather Clim. Extrem. 39 (2023) 1–12, 100552]","authors":"S. Kim, J.-H. Kwon, J.-S. Om, T. Lee, G. Kim, H. Kim, J.-H. Heo","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100726","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100726","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142329785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The 2019–21 drought in southern Madagascar","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100723","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100723","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Two consecutive failed rainy seasons in the southern part of Madagascar in 2019–21 had devastating impacts on the population, including an amplification of the ongoing food insecurity in the area. The drought events were second in severity only to the 1990–92 drought and were estimated in a previous study to have a return period of 135 years. In this study, the physical mechanisms that led to these consecutive drought events are investigated.</div><div>We found that the anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that persisted to the south of Madagascar between December 2019 and December 2020 led to a decrease in the transport of moist air over land. These cold SST anomalies were the most negative anomalies in the past four decades and intensified the rainfall deficit resulting from a negative Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) mode during the rainy season of December 2019 to March 2020 and during December 2020. We also found that the rainfall response to the SST anomaly south of Madagascar was three times greater than that of a canonical SIOD.</div><div>A weak Mozambique Channel Trough and a strong Angola low system, on the other hand, modulated the expected above-normal rainfall from a La Niña event in January–February 2021. Our study demonstrates how local factors can modulate the impacts of large-scale drivers, and that both local and global drivers, and their interactions, should be considered when producing seasonal forecasts and advisories, as well as climate change adaptation and mitigation plans for southern Madagascar.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142319661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Intrinsic short Marine Heatwaves from the perspective of sea surface temperature and height","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100725","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100725","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have recently been recognized as extreme climate events considering their devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. Our study explored the spatial and temporal variability of short (duration &lt;10 days) and long MHWs in nine sub-regions around the Australian coastal region using the original (5-day) and an updated longer duration (10-day) criteria for MHW identification based on gap-free Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analyses from 1981 to 2020. By quantitatively investigating the contribution of ocean warming to short MHWs, we could consider most of the short events as background signals of a dynamic ocean surface over the Australian region. The application of the updated definition highlights areas that are more sensitive to local internal forcings, especially over the main flow of the East Australian Current. Furthermore, the Great Barrier Reef exhibit a larger increasing trend of MHW areas after excluding the short events. By numerically and graphically evaluating the relationship between the sea level anomaly (SLA) and SST metrics over two coastal regions of Australia, it is found that longer MHWs exhibiting two variation trends of large SLA metrics are ENSO dominant in the northwest coastal region (NW), and less ENSO-dominant but geographically-impacted in the southeast coastal region (SETS). However, it is possible that most short events in these two regions are a result of local and intrinsic variability or ocean warming of the water columns rather than the remote modulation of climate modes. Moreover, SLA over the 90th percentile, which successfully observed a subsurface MHW event over the NW region in 2008, has the potential to help identify subsurface MHWs, although limited by application area. Further investigation into the applicability of these, or other similar, updates to the MHW definitions may be warranted, to draw a broadly applicable conclusion to benefit detection and prediction of strong sub-surface MHWs impacting commercial and environmental activities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000860/pdfft?md5=341b1461867d6b8129228be8bd35980c&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000860-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142315559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling in 2022 CONUS compound drought-heatwave events and implications for forecasting","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100722","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100722","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Severe compound drought-heatwave events were observed over three regions of the Contiguous United States (CONUS), Northwest (NW), Great Plains (GP), and Northeast (NE) regions, during July and August 2022. In this study, we have found that the developments of these drought-heatwave events were shaped by different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors which are associated with water and energy limitation regimes in these regions. In the NW and GP regions, the surface soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) were coupled through water-limited processes. Heatwaves in these two regions were affected by the decrease of ET and the available SM due to the precipitation deficit. This type of land-atmosphere coupling was especially prominent in the GP. In the NE region, the heatwave governed ET through the increase of potential ET (PET) based on energy-limited coupling, which played a crucial role in the development of drought.</p><p>The impacts of the different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors on the predictability of the 13-km Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD) were also investigated by checking its 10-day forecasts during the same period. The analysis was particularly focused on the GP and NE regions, where different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors were observed. The model's warm bias in the GP region was associated with the overestimated net radiation, and the bias was further amplified through the water-limited coupling. In the NE region, the PET-related variables, including surface air temperature, influenced the predictability of drought onset by limiting ET through the energy-limited coupling. Based on our findings, this study highlights the crucial role of land-atmosphere coupling behaviors and provides a scientific strategy for enhancing the model predictability of compound drought-heatwaves.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000835/pdfft?md5=1fbba52bfc1f681f204a5078e035a0f4&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000835-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142238912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flash drought and heatwave compound events increased in strength and length from 1980 to 2022 in China","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100720","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100720","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Compound flash drought and heatwave (FDHW) events have garnered increasing amounts of attention due to their substantial impacts on agriculture, water resources, and public health. However, studies on their intensity and classification in China are limited. In this study, we classified FDHW events in China from 1980 to 2022 using a classification framework designed to address regional patterns and explore their characteristics further. The results showed that FDHW events in northern China mostly occurred in early to mid-summer, whereas in southern China, excluding the Southwest River Basin, they occurred predominantly in mid to late summer. Furthermore, the spatial coverage of FDHW events across China significantly expanded. From 1980 to 2022, FDHW events in China evolved toward higher intensities and longer durations. This trend was especially notable in the Jiang-Huai River Basin, the main grain-producing region and a densely populated area of China. From the perspective of land‒atmosphere coupling, the amplifying effect of flash droughts and high temperatures increased with their intensity. When high temperatures reached the extreme level, the amplification effect on flash droughts was evident: 35.76% from the water deficit perspective and 38.82% from the soil moisture perspective. During extreme flash droughts, the amplification effect on high temperatures intensified: 41.51% from the water deficit perspective and 45.06% from the soil moisture perspective. The Southwest River Basin became a hotspot for the interaction between flash droughts and high temperatures. This study has implications for developing science-based policies to tackle risks in the water, energy and food sectors in China.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000811/pdfft?md5=e4409628be16d9fb977682d4c3e2a5c6&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000811-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142238911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum “Multiscale drivers of catastrophic heavy rainfall event in early August 2022 in South Korea” [Weather and Climate Extremes, 44, 2024, 1–16/10068]","authors":"Chanil Park, Min-Jee Kang, Jaeyoung Hwang, Hyeong-Oh Cho, Sujin Kim, Seok-Woo Son","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100719","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100719","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142275906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multivariate analysis of compound hail, wind and rainfall extremes in Alberta's hail alley","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100718","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100718","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Hailstorms are severe weather events with the potential for devastating impacts. The consequences can be significantly worsened when hail events are accompanied by strong winds, intensifying both hail momentum and damage to property sidings and windows. Additionally, rainfall extremes during hailstorms can disrupt the drainage systems, potentially leading to flash flooding. Therefore, understanding the inter-dependencies and joint behaviour of these hazards is crucial for developing effective risk mitigation strategies. In this study, we conduct a multivariate probabilistic assessment of concurrent hail, wind, and rainfall extremes over the Alberta's “hail alley” using radar and ground-based observations. The analysis comprehensively explores individual hazards, as well as bivariate and trivariate scenarios using a vine copula approach. We quantify individual, conditional, and joint return periods (JRPs) for the various scenarios. Findings indicate that in both wind-driven hail and hail-rainfall extreme hazards, the joint occurrences based on JRP, can be underestimated by 20% and 70% when assuming independence, respectively, which has substantial implications for risk assessment and management, as well as infrastructure design and maintenance. The analysis of the trivariate case suggests the potential for the concurrent occurrence of multiple hazards in the region. Furthermore, results show that Archimedean copula families outperform elliptical copulas in simulating extreme variables related to compound events associated with hailstorms. The study stresses the importance of assessing the joint behaviour of these hazard components in hailstorms, with the objective of mitigating potential impacts on vulnerable regions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000793/pdfft?md5=7c963bc76010c213e0a583feccef85ca&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000793-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142238910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Land-atmosphere coupling amplified the record-breaking heatwave at altitudes above 5000 meters on the Tibetan Plateau in July 2022","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100717","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100717","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In July 2022, regions with elevations exceeding 5 000 m on the inner Tibetan Plateau (TP) witnessed a record-breaking heatwave. But how the atmospheric circulation and soil moisture play roles in the occurrence and maintenance of the heatwave in such high elevation climate sensitive region remains unknown. Here, by using the flow analogue method, we find that negative soil moisture anomalies explain more than half of the extreme high temperature during the heatwave, while atmospheric circulation explains less than half. The high soil moisture-temperature coupling metric and the increased correlation between latent heat flux and soil moisture during heatwave revealed strong land-atmosphere feedback in the Qiangtang Plateau which has amplified the heatwave. Analyses of numerical experiments confirm that the presence of interaction between soil moisture and the atmosphere has increased the intensity of hot extreme event under the same atmospheric circulation conditions. Under the warming background, land-atmosphere coupling leads to a faster increase in extreme high temperatures compared to the global mean warming rate, and it is twice as fast as the increase in extreme high temperatures without coupling. We highlight the increased probability of extreme high temperature over the TP in the future due to soil moisture feedback and the results are hoped to inform policymakers in making decisions for climate adaptation activities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000781/pdfft?md5=e99230385068be473d2831d54a0f81b9&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000781-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142058452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating historical storm surge events into flood risk security in the Copenhagen region","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100713","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100713","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Rapid urbanisation along the coasts of the world in recent decades has increased their vulnerability to storm surges, especially in response to mean sea level rise. The unique geographical and social conditions of Copenhagen, a major European coastal city, have prompted urban expansion along Køge Bay to the south of the city. However, this new urbanisation area is confronted with the common obstacle of developing a coastal defence strategy, i.e., the lack of long-term observational data required to determine a reliable storm surge protection level. This study aims to address this issue by developing a framework that integrates historical records of extreme storm surge events into coastal defence strategies, using Copenhagen as a case study. We propose a four-step work framework, including (1) Data collection and analysis: We collected and analysed data from neighbouring cities and used modelling and reanalysis data sets. By combining these sources, we aim to reconstruct historical time series for the study site dating back to 1836. This extended information set enhances our understanding of past storm surge events. (2) Statistical modelling and forecasting: Using Bayesian statistical methods, we fitted the historical storm surge data to appropriate probability distributions. This enabled us to generate probabilistic forecasts of storm surge magnitudes, providing insight into the likelihood of future events and their potential impacts on the coastal area. (3) Sensitivity analyses: We performed sensitivity experiments using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to identify the most influential parameters, such as thresholds, that affect storm surge levels. This analysis improved our understanding of the key drivers of storm surge events and their uncertainties, further informing coastal defence strategies. (4) Expert judgement and risk management: Expert judgements are implemented to establish the necessary security level to manage flood risks in the city. This helps to ensure that high-impact, low-probability events are adequately considered in risk management efforts. Following this framework, we can develop a comprehensive understanding of storm surge risks in the urbanised region south of Copenhagen and use historical data to inform coastal defence strategies. This study emphasises the importance of incorporating long-term observational data and expert insights to improve the resilience of coastal cities facing the challenges of urbanisation and climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094724000744/pdfft?md5=dda33e860ca39174063827009fe95414&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094724000744-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142043748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The key role of extreme weather and climate change in the occurrence of exceptional fire seasons in south-central Chile","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100716","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100716","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Unprecedentedly large areas were burned during the 2016/17 and 2022/23 fire seasons in south-central Chile (34-39°S). These seasonal-aggregated values were mostly accounted for human-caused wildfires within a limited period in late January 2017 and early February 2023. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the meteorological conditions during these events, from local to hemispheric scales, and formally assess the contribution of climate change to their occurrence. To achieve this, we gathered monthly fire data from the Chilean Forestry Corporation and daily burned area estimates from satellite sources. In-situ and gridded data provided near-surface atmospheric insights, ERA5 reanalysis helped analyze broader wildfire features, high-resolution simulations were used to obtain details of the wind field, and large-ensemble simulations allowed the assessment of climate change's impact on extreme temperatures during the fires. This study found extraordinary daily burned area values (&gt;65,000 ha) occurring under extreme surface weather conditions (temperature, humidity, and winds), fostered by strong mid-level subsidence ahead of a ridge and downslope winds converging towards a coastal low. Daytime temperatures and the water vapor deficit reached the maximum values observed across the region, well above the previous historical records. We hypothesize that these conditions were crucial in exacerbating the spread of fire, along with longer-term atmospheric processes and other non-climatic factors such as fuel availability and increasing human-driven ignitions. Our findings further reveal that climate change has increased the probability and intensity of extremely warm temperatures in south-central Chile, underscoring anthropogenic forcing as a significant driver of the extreme fire activity in the region.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209472400077X/pdfft?md5=86347660f42a6cf4a9fcfd2af91d3006&pid=1-s2.0-S221209472400077X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142043587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}