Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献

High-latitude lake influence on highly concentrated precipitation from cold-season storms in western Canada 高纬度湖泊对加拿大西部冷季风暴高度集中降水的影响

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100778

Fei Huo, Yanping Li, Zhenhua Li

{"title":"High-latitude lake influence on highly concentrated precipitation from cold-season storms in western Canada","authors":"Fei Huo, Yanping Li, Zhenhua Li","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100778","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100778","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cold-season (October–March) storms, particularly severe snowstorms, are responsible for significant economic losses and have crucial impacts on freshwater availability and ecosystems in high-latitude North America. These snowstorms also contribute to destructive floods during rapid snowmelt. Thus, ecosystems and water infrastructure in Canada are highly sensitive to changes in cold-season storms under global warming. This study employs an object-based approach, specifically utilizing a storm-tracking algorithm, to investigate how cold-season storm precipitation in western Canada responds to climate change under a worst-case warming scenario. In the entire study area, peak daily precipitation greater than 50 mm day<sup>−1</sup> within storms significantly increases in both warm and cold seasons. The most extreme storms with highly concentrated precipitation (that is, storms with the precipitation intensity 5 times greater at the storm center compared to the area-averaged intensity), are expected to become more frequent in the future, particularly in the coastal regions and inland lake regions. More importantly, by analyzing the top 20 storms with the highest peak daily precipitation, we found that in the future, lakes will contribute more moisture to the atmosphere through increased evaporation, thereby intensifying the moisture supply and enhancing storm precipitation. Additionally, our findings indicate that future cold-season storms with highly concentrated precipitation may not increase evenly across each month. Warmer lakes in autumn, due to their high thermal inertia, will continue to provide significant local moisture to the atmosphere, which is crucial for the formation of highly concentrated precipitation. These findings suggest significant implications for understanding and predicting the impacts of climate change on storm dynamics and precipitation patterns over inland lakes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100778"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144139382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Anthropogenic influence has intensified the severity of summer compound hot and drought events over xinjiang, China 人为影响加剧了新疆夏季复合干热事件的严重程度

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-05-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100774

Xiaolu Zhang , Botao Zhou , Xiaoxin Wang , Wenxin Xie , Huixin Li

{"title":"Anthropogenic influence has intensified the severity of summer compound hot and drought events over xinjiang, China","authors":"Xiaolu Zhang , Botao Zhou , Xiaoxin Wang , Wenxin Xie , Huixin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100774","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100774","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compared with individual hot or drought extremes, compound hot and drought events (CHDEs) usually cause more disastrous socio-economic damage. Thus, understanding the change of CHDEs in the context of global warming is crucial for effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. This article, based on the CN05.1 gridded dataset and 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations, examines the change in summer (June–July–August) CHDEs over Xinjiang, China from 1961 to 2020 and assesses the contribution of human influence using the optimal fingerprint method. The observational results show a significant upward trend in the severity of CHDEs over Xinjiang, among which the change in moderate CHDEs shows a dominant contribution. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean simulation with all forcing generally matches the observation in the change of CHDEs over Xinjiang. Moreover, anthropogenic and natural forcings can be detected and separated from each other, with human activities contributing most to the CHDE change. Furthermore, the three-signal analysis of model responses to greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosol, and natural forcings indicates that the greenhouse gas forcing is primary to the increased severity of CHDEs in Xinjiang, while the influence of anthropogenic aerosol forcing cannot be detected.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100774"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144069351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Subsurface marine heat waves and coral bleaching in the southern red sea linked to remote forcing 南红海的海底热浪和珊瑚白化与远程强迫有关

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100771

Jithendra Raju Nadimpalli , Sivareddy Sanikommu , Aneesh C. Subramanian , Donata Giglio , Ibrahim Hoteit

{"title":"Subsurface marine heat waves and coral bleaching in the southern red sea linked to remote forcing","authors":"Jithendra Raju Nadimpalli , Sivareddy Sanikommu , Aneesh C. Subramanian , Donata Giglio , Ibrahim Hoteit","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100771","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100771","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Research on marine heat waves (MHWs) in the Red Sea has focused on the surface signatures of these extreme warm events, such as the sea surface temperature (SST). This focus may potentially neglect the detrimental effects of subsurface MHWs. The unprecedented coral bleaching event observed in the southern Red Sea in 2015, despite less intense SSTs than in the MHW in 2002, highlights this oversight. A high-resolution regional reanalysis of the Red Sea reveals that 2015 and 2002 were characterized by subsurface heat content anomalies of opposite signs at depths up to 100 m, with positive anomalies in 2015 and negative anomalies in 2002. A heat budget analysis suggests that the primary heat source is advection from the southern boundary connecting with the Gulf of Aden (GoA). The advection of negative temperature anomalies from the GoA contributed to decreased subsurface heat in 2002, and the advection of positive temperature anomalies from the GoA contributed to increased subsurface heat in 2015. The total increase in the subsurface heat observed in 2015 is linked to the reduction in Red Sea surface water (RSSW) and GoA intermediate water (GAIW). The higher sea surface height (SSH) and deeper 25<span><math><mi>σ</mi></math></span> isopycnal in GoA during 2015 resulted in horizontal pressure differences between the southern Red Sea and GoA, corresponding to the reduced flow of RSSW and GAIW that year. The primary factor contributing to the elevated SSH and deeper 25<span><math><mi>σ</mi></math></span> isopycnal is the presence of an anticyclonic eddy (Somali current ring) along the western shores of the GoA. The probable cause for the stronger anticyclonic eddy in 2015 compared to 2002 is the decreased intensity of the westward-propagating upwelling Rossby waves that originated from as far away as the Arabian Sea and the western coasts of India.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100771"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143934994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Unprecedented Late-Summer 2023 Heatwave in Southeastern South America: Attribution and future projection of similar events 2023年南美洲东南部史无前例的夏末热浪：类似事件的归因和未来预测

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100772

Woon Mi Kim , Isla R. Simpson , Laurent Terray , Soledad Collazo

{"title":"The Unprecedented Late-Summer 2023 Heatwave in Southeastern South America: Attribution and future projection of similar events","authors":"Woon Mi Kim , Isla R. Simpson , Laurent Terray , Soledad Collazo","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100772","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100772","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In March 2023, southeastern South America (SESA) experienced a severe heatwave with its maximum intensity exceeding four standard deviations from the climatological mean. The timing of the occurrence was also unusual, as it occurred in the late summer. This study examines the contributing factors to the March 2023 SESA heatwave using a dynamical adjustment approach based on constructed atmospheric circulation analogs from the ERA5 reanalysis. Additionally, we assess changes in March heatwaves in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3-7.0 climate simulations using the same method.</div><div>The dynamical adjustment indicates that the largest contributors to the heatwave are circulation anomalies (on average 33%, 2.72<span><math><mrow><mo>°</mo><mi>C</mi></mrow></math></span>) and thermodynamic effect (58%, 4.75<span><math><mrow><mo>°</mo><mi>C</mi></mrow></math></span>), primarily linked to soil-temperature feedback. This result supports that extremely dry soil from the ongoing multi-year drought played a role in amplifying the heatwave intensity. The persistence of the circulation anomalies is also noticeable during the period. The contribution of the long-term temperature trend is 9% (0.78<span><math><mrow><mo>°</mo><mi>C</mi></mrow></math></span>).</div><div>In CMIP6 future simulations, the number of March heatwaves increases, but the relative frequency of March-2023-like dry-hot heatwaves decreases, largely due to projected increases in soil moisture. The contributions of the temperature trends and circulation anomalies are larger, while the thermodynamic effects related to soil-temperature feedback are reduced. The finding suggests that future March heatwaves are driven by increases in temperatures with reduced roles of soil moisture. However, uncertainty exists in future soil moisture projections, indicating the need for more understanding of changes in heatwaves in the region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100772"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143941953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Future projection of East Asian atmospheric rivers in high-resolution climate models 东亚大气河流在高分辨率气候模式中的未来预估

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100776

Yeeun Kwon, Seok-Woo Son

{"title":"Future projection of East Asian atmospheric rivers in high-resolution climate models","authors":"Yeeun Kwon, Seok-Woo Son","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100776","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100776","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a critical role in extreme precipitation in East Asia during the East Asian summer monsoon. While ARs are projected to increase in a warming climate, their regional changes in East Asia remain unclear partly due to the use of relatively coarse models. This study investigates future changes in East Asian ARs using high-resolution climate model simulations. The results show a robust increase in AR frequency and associated precipitation in East Asia in the near future (2025–2050). ARs are also projected to become more intense and persistent with a considerable increase in extreme precipitation, although the quantitative change slightly differs depending on the AR detection algorithms. Such changes are primarily driven by thermodynamic processes, with dynamic processes playing a secondary role. However, the dynamic processes, especially low-frequency circulation changes, contribute significantly to the inter-model spread, determining the uncertainty in the future projections of East Asian ARs. This finding helps to better understand future changes in AR and associated extreme precipitation in East Asia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100776"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143947520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Joint estimation of trend in bulk and extreme daily precipitation in Switzerland 瑞士大量降水和极端日降水趋势的联合估计

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100769

Abubakar Haruna, Juliette Blanchet, Anne-Catherine Favre

{"title":"Joint estimation of trend in bulk and extreme daily precipitation in Switzerland","authors":"Abubakar Haruna, Juliette Blanchet, Anne-Catherine Favre","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100769","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100769","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Precipitation is crucial for water supply and energy generation in the Alps. However, heavy precipitation can also lead to natural disasters. It is therefore essential to understand the changes in both mean and extreme precipitation in order to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study jointly models the observed long-term trends in both the bulk and extremes of daily precipitation distribution in Switzerland by employing a non-stationary version of the Extended Generalized Pareto distribution (EGPD). The EGPD allows us to model the entire non-zero precipitation range while remaining consistent with extreme value theory in its lower and upper tails.. We incorporated the non-stationarity by allowing the parameters of the distribution to vary with two covariates, time and sea surface temperature, and used a bootstrap approach for uncertainty assessment and to assess the significance of the modeled trends. The results indicate that extreme precipitation has increased in all seasons, while mean precipitation has only significantly increased in winter in northern Switzerland. This increase in winter precipitation is attributed to both a positive trend in the frequency and in the intensity of wet days precipitation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100769"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143934995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Synoptic-based model for reconstructing and forecasting high-frequency sea-level extremes in the mediterranean 重建和预测地中海高频率海平面极端事件的天气学模型

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-05-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100775

P. Zemunik Selak , I. Vilibić , C. Denamiel , P. Pranić

{"title":"Synoptic-based model for reconstructing and forecasting high-frequency sea-level extremes in the mediterranean","authors":"P. Zemunik Selak , I. Vilibić , C. Denamiel , P. Pranić","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100775","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100775","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper evaluates the performance of a synoptic index-based model designed to predict extreme non-seismic sea-level oscillations at tsunami timescales (NSLOTTs) across 32 tide-gauge stations in the Mediterranean Sea, where NSLOTTs can contribute up to 50 % of the total sea-level range. The model employs percentile-determined threshold exceedance criteria to define extreme NSLOTT events. A part of the time series containing half of extreme NSLOTT events is used for model training, while the rest is used for performance assessing. The baseline model integrates seven synoptic variables previously identified for a known NSLOTT hotspot and available within atmospheric reanalysis products. Various model configurations and modifications were tested to evaluate adaptability and robustness in forecasting and detecting extreme NSLOTT events. Results indicate that the model success in forecasting extreme events slightly outweighs its success in detecting observed extreme events. For stations where the baseline model performs well, this proficiency remains consistent across different configurations. However, the uncertainty in model performance is greater for these stations compared to those with poorer performance, which show minimal improvement despite configuration adjustments. Sub-basin analysis reveals that tide-gauge stations located in the eastern Adriatic Sea exhibit the best performance on average. These findings provide valuable insights for optimizing the model setup, enhancing its predictive capabilities, and improving its application in projecting extreme NSLOTT events in future climates. Ultimately, this work may contribute to coastal hazard and flooding mitigation, as well as resilience-building efforts, where extreme NSLOTT events could play a substantial role.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100775"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143934996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Predictability assessment of marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific based on SEAS5 基于SEAS5的东北太平洋海洋热浪可预测性评估

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-04-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100773

Zhouhong Liu , Boni Wang , Haixia Shan

{"title":"Predictability assessment of marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific based on SEAS5","authors":"Zhouhong Liu , Boni Wang , Haixia Shan","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100773","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100773","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Marine Heatwaves (MHWs), extreme ocean warming events, have attracted global attention. This research utilizes forecast data from SEAS5 (Seasonal Forecasting System 5) and OISST (Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature), applying a range of evaluation metrics from both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting viewpoints. It assesses the forecasting performance of the SEAS5 in the Northeast Pacific (NEP) over the period from 1994 to 2021, examining both spatial and temporal dimensions. The midwest of the NEP exhibits subpar performance in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic predictions when compared to other regions. Furthermore, the SEAS5's forecast skill for MHWs is significantly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal variations. This study establishes probability thresholds for MHWs' occurrences to assess MHWs' predictability using SEAS5, demonstrating that forecasting effectiveness across NEP subregions strongly depends on probability thresholds. To evaluate model performance in terms of reliability and resolution, the research concentrates on the Brier Score decomposition, revealing that the southeastern NEP region exhibits superior reliability and resolution. Additionally, the study focuses on not only the comprehensive efficacy of SEAS5 forecast on the NEP as a whole, but also on the specific performance across different regions. The proposed reliability categorization of MHWs indicates that the majority of regions within the NEP fall into Category 3 and above (at least marginally useful) across all lead times. The SEAS5 has shown high predictability in forecasting the occurrences of MHWs in the NEP, exhibiting diverse forecasting accuracy for MHWs across various maritime regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100773"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143894955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Editorial: Australia's Tinderbox Drought 社论：澳大利亚的火药箱干旱

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-04-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100766

Jason P. Evans , Nerilie J. Abram

引用次数: 0

Influence of inner-core symmetry on tropical cyclone rapid intensification and its forecasting by a machine learning ensemble model 内核对称对热带气旋快速增强的影响及其机器学习集成模型预测

IF 6.1 1区地球科学

Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100770

Jiali Zhang , Qinglan Li , Liguang Wu , Qifeng Qian , Xuyang Ge , Sam Tak Wu Kwong , Yun Zhang , Xinyan Lyu , Guanbo Zhou , Gaozhen Nie , Pak Wai Chan , Wai Kin Wong , Linwei Zhu

{"title":"Influence of inner-core symmetry on tropical cyclone rapid intensification and its forecasting by a machine learning ensemble model","authors":"Jiali Zhang , Qinglan Li , Liguang Wu , Qifeng Qian , Xuyang Ge , Sam Tak Wu Kwong , Yun Zhang , Xinyan Lyu , Guanbo Zhou , Gaozhen Nie , Pak Wai Chan , Wai Kin Wong , Linwei Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100770","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100770","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposed a novel quantitative index, the Symmetric Ratio, derived from satellite observations to depict Tropical Cyclone (TC) inner-core symmetry. This index is found to be significantly influential in TC Rapid Intensification (RI). We applied four machine learning (ML) models—Decision Tree, Random Forest, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and Adaptive Boosting to forecast TC RI in the Northwestern Pacific (WNP) and North Atlantic (NA) basins from 2005 to 2023, with lead times of 12 and 24 hours. An ensemble model integrated these ML models to further enhance prediction accuracy. Model training used TC best track and reanalysis data from 2005 to 2020, with validation from 2021 to 2022. Independent forecasting tests from 2016 to 2023 applied real-time TC track data from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system and environmental data from the Global Forecast System. Compared with the best deterministic model with the detection probability (POD) of 21 % and false alarm rate (FAR) of 50 % for 24-h RI forecasts in the NA basin during 2016–2020, our ensemble model demonstrated significant improvements, achieving a POD of 0.27 and an FAR of 0.18 for the same period. For 2021–2023, the ensemble model obtained POD values of 0.24 and 0.41, and FAR values of 0.33 and 0.45 for 24-h predictions in the NA and WNP basins, respectively. Key predictors identified include maximum wind speed tendency, vertical wind shear, potential intensity, and Symmetric Ratio. These findings advance our understanding of TC RI mechanisms and improve prediction accuracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100770"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143850719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0