Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献

{"title":"Changing patterns of compound coastal flooding along the Pacific coast of North America: precipitation-surge interactions under climate change","authors":"Mohammad Fereshtehpour,Mercè Casas-Prat,Mohammad Reza Najafi,Julien Cousineau","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100963","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100963","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"10 1","pages":"100963"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149209247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Robust Identification of Impactful Boreal Summer Anticyclones","authors":"Eylon Vakrat,Paul J. Kushner","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100962","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100962","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"14 1","pages":"100962"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149209249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Heatwaves in a 15 °C World: Exploring remote drivers’ influence on Northern Italy with a storyline-based approach","authors":"Antonello A. Squintu,&nbsp;Ronan McAdam,&nbsp;Jorge Pérez-Aracil,&nbsp;César Peláez-Rodríguez,&nbsp;Carmen Alvarez-Castro,&nbsp;Harilaos Loukos,&nbsp;David Barriopedro,&nbsp;Sancho Salcedo-Sanz,&nbsp;Enrico Scoccimarro","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100949","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100949","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heatwaves (HW) heavily affect several sectors of the economy and society in the European and Mediterranean regions, and particularly in the Po Valley area. Their frequency and intensity are projected to increase, and a thorough understanding of how this occurs in relation to rising global temperatures and to the projected changes in other weather and climate variables is fundamental for developing effective adaptation plans. In this study, developed within the Climate Intelligence (CLINT) project, we propose an application of the storylines technique, empowered by the definition of shared global thermodynamical conditions across the simulations (Common Temperature States, CTS) and by the implementation of an ML-based driver-oriented validation for the used CMIP6 models. This allows us to produce a set of physically sound storylines, where the increase of heatwave-related indices is inspected under specific conditions in the evolution of other drivers, researching proximate drivers and teleconnections. Our results highlight relevant contributions coming from precipitation depletion over three different Euro-Mediterranean domains (Northern Africa, Western and Eastern Europe), which is associated with enhanced sensible heat fluxes and co-occurs with the largest increases in the HW Magnitude Index and the number of HW days. Furthermore, the increase of these indices is found to be connected with different confidence levels to tropical modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation and the convective activity in the Western Pacific, whose upper-level divergence triggers planetary wave trains. By contrast, the pressure gradients in the North Atlantic appear to be positively correlated with HW in Northern Italy, but are of secondary importance with respect to precipitation decrease. These findings demonstrate how the use of Machine Learning tools (here, the Spatio-Temporal Cluster-Optimised Feature Selection (STCO-FS) framework) can reinforce the storylines approach and advance scientific understanding of extreme events in a changing climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100949"},"PeriodicalIF":7.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148883864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal characteristics and long-term changes of extreme rainfall events in Taiwan","authors":"Kuan-Chieh Chen,&nbsp;Chi-Cherng Hong,&nbsp;Chi-Chun Chang,&nbsp;Cheng-Ta Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100950","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100950","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme rainfall events (EREs, ≥ 80 mm day⁻¹) in Taiwan were examined for their spatiotemporal characteristics from 1960 to 2022 using an event-based tracking method. Climatologically, Taiwan experiences approximately 11 EREs annually, with the highest frequency and magnitude occurring during the tropical cyclone (TC) season (July–October, 56%), followed by the early summer season (May–June, 33%). Spatially, EREs exhibit a west-to-east migration from spring to winter, corresponding to the monsoonal transition, with higher-magnitude events predominantly concentrated in the central and southern mountainous regions.</div><div>EREs demonstrate significant variability on both interannual and secular timescales. Their interannual frequency is strongly modulated by ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies. During the summer of El Niño developing years, an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the western North Pacific coincides with an enhanced monsoon flow and higher frequency of landfalling TCs, thereby favoring more frequent EREs. In contrast, the subsequent anticyclonic circulation anomaly in autumn is accompanied by fewer ERE occurrences, with this reduction persisting into the summer of the following decaying years. The long-term evolution of EREs exhibits a significant upward trend in both frequency and intensity. This enhancement is closely associated with a deceleration in TC translation speeds at landfall and a higher proportion of westward-tracking storms making landfall in central Taiwan. Additionally, intensified TC-related ascent is linked to this trend.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100950"},"PeriodicalIF":7.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148883866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Potential drivers of Northwest Pacific marine heatwaves inferred from adjoint sensitivities” [Weather Clim. Extrem. 53 (2026) 100942]","authors":"Xiaoxue Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100947","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100947","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100947"},"PeriodicalIF":7.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148756224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing coastal flood hazard assessments through spatio-temporal event modelling at large scales","authors":"M. Alvarez-Cuesta,&nbsp;J. Rohmer,&nbsp;A. Toimil,&nbsp;I.J. Losada,&nbsp;G. Le Cozannet","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100952","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100952","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The definition of spatio-temporal extreme coastal water level events along the coast is critical for flood hazard assessments. Traditional site-by-site analyses of extreme events at large scales (thousands of kilometers) often oversimplify spatial dependencies and neglect the temporal evolution of storms across space, leading to unreliable hazard estimates. In this study, we implement a spatio-temporal statistical model that integrates wave and storm surge contributions to estimate water level footprints and their associated flooding over large spatial scales. To translate these water levels into flood areas, we employ a hybrid calculation approach that combines physics-based hydrodynamic modelling with machine learning. Demonstrated in the Bay of Biscay (1 230 km of shoreline), we reproduced historical events in both time and space and generated large synthetic databases of extreme events. The synthetic database enables the analysis of extreme event progression along the coast, and allows for a more spatially-coherent determination of flooded areas return levels by incorporating spatial dependencies. The results revealed notable differences between the event-based approach (coherent spatio-temporal phenomena) and the standard site-by-site analysis, particularly at larger spatial scales. In the Bay of Biscay, our comparison shows that spatially uniform 100-year return levels are substantially less frequent when spatial consistency is enforced. For atmospheric water levels, comprising storm surge and wave setup but excluding astronomical tide, the spatially uniform 100-year return-level footprint is expected to occur approximately once every 494 years when spatial dependence is considered. Separately, for flooded areas computed under a high-tide scenario, the spatially uniform 100-year flooded-area estimate corresponds to an occurrence of approximately 175 years. These findings highlight the importance of considering the spatio-temporal evolution of extremes to improve large-scale coastal flood hazard assessments and provide more spatially coherent hazard information to support coastal adaptation and resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100952"},"PeriodicalIF":7.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148883865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contrasting Atmospheric River detection frameworks reveal distinct thermodynamic responses at high northern latitudes","authors":"Flavio Justino,&nbsp;David H. Bromwich,&nbsp;Kazu Takahashi,&nbsp;Carlos Gurjão","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100951","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100951","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study assesses the relationships of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and extratropical cyclones with relative thermal degree day (<span><math><mrow><mi>T</mi><mi>D</mi><msub><mrow><mi>D</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>rel</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span>) variability and precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes (40–90°N). Using two AR detection frameworks together with independent cyclone and hydroclimatic datasets, we show that AR frequency explains a substantially larger fraction of <span><math><mrow><mi>T</mi><mi>D</mi><msub><mrow><mi>D</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>rel</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> variability than cyclone frequency across most seasons. Enhanced AR occurrence is consistently associated with positive <span><math><mrow><mi>T</mi><mi>D</mi><msub><mrow><mi>D</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>rel</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> anomalies and increased precipitation, highlighting the importance of poleward moisture transport for high-latitude thermodynamic and hydrological variability. The diagnosed relationships are sensitive to AR detection methodology. The Takahashi and Sakazaki framework produces stronger and more spatially coherent relationships between AR activity, <span><math><mrow><mi>T</mi><mi>D</mi><msub><mrow><mi>D</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>rel</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span>, and precipitation than the Guan and Waliser framework, demonstrating that AR detection methodology can substantially influence estimates of AR-related hydroclimatic impacts. The strongest relationships occur over North America and Eurasia, with weaker but still widespread responses across Arctic land regions. Although ARs and extratropical cyclones are dynamically connected, cyclone frequency exhibits a comparatively weaker and more spatially heterogeneous relationship with <span><math><mrow><mi>T</mi><mi>D</mi><msub><mrow><mi>D</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>rel</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span>, indicating that cyclone occurrence alone does not fully characterize the thermodynamic variability associated with organized poleward moisture transport. Overall, the results identify AR frequency as an important statistical predictor of high-latitude thermodynamic variability and emphasize the combined thermodynamic and hydrological influence of ARs. These historical relationships provide a basis for investigating how future changes in AR frequency, intensity, and persistence may affect high-latitude hydroclimate under continued Arctic warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100951"},"PeriodicalIF":7.2,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148893629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Precipitation bursts in northern Australia with and without preceding heatwaves","authors":"Sarthak Mohanty ,&nbsp;Nikhil Garg ,&nbsp;Nandini Ramesh ,&nbsp;Mahesh Prakash","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100845","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100845","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compound climate extremes have significant societal and ecological impacts, yet their drivers in tropical regions remain poorly understood. For example, although global evidence increasingly highlights interactions between heatwaves and precipitation, the specific mechanisms driving these compound events in Northern Australia remain poorly characterized, particularly the contrasting influence of atmospheric circulation and temperature-driven thermodynamic processes. Motivated by these gaps, this study investigates the interaction between heatwaves and precipitation bursts in Northern Australia during the pre- and post-monsoon seasons. We employ a vertically integrated moisture budget framework to systematically contrast precipitation bursts preceded by heatwaves with those occurring independently. Heatwave-associated bursts exhibit stronger and more prolonged convective activity, resulting in intensified peak precipitation and delayed maxima compared to independently occurring bursts. Vertical moisture advection is the dominant mechanism, accounting for over 70% of the variability in column-integrated moisture flux. A further decomposition reveals that the dynamic component of vertical advection — driven by circulation anomalies — plays a more substantial role than the thermodynamic component in driving these changes. These events coincide with anomalously low mean sea level pressure and enhanced cyclonic circulation, and are observed alongside sustained convective processes. Collectively, our findings highlight the role of atmospheric circulation in shaping these compounded heat and precipitation extremes in tropical Northern Australia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100845"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145730861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of East Asian cold surges on tropical precipitation over the Maritime continent","authors":"Wenwen Yang ,&nbsp;Wenling Cui ,&nbsp;Xichen Li ,&nbsp;Thomas Spengler ,&nbsp;Nick Dunstone ,&nbsp;Steven C. Hardiman ,&nbsp;Bo Pang ,&nbsp;Lin Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100868","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100868","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cold surges are typical weather phenomena of the East Asian winter monsoon and can substantially influence tropical precipitation from the South China Sea (SCS) across the Maritime Continent (MC). This study proposes a revised definition of cold surge events by merging intermittent surges separated by brief (1–2 day) interruptions into continuous episodes. It then classifies cold surge events from 1980 to 2023 into short- and long-lived categories. Composite and lead–lag analyses show that while cold surges of both categories enhance precipitation over the SCS and MC, long-lived events produce not only more persistent but also more intense rainfall. These prolonged cold surges are characterized by sustained northerly winds, enhanced diabatic heating in the mid- to upper troposphere, and deeper convective development. Thermodynamic analyses reveal that long-lived cold surges are more effective in transporting heat and moisture from mid-latitudes and initiate robust ascent when sea surface temperature (SST) exceeds a convective threshold (∼27 °C). Sea level pressure indices over East Asia and Siberia emerge as robust precursors for cold surge occurrence, leading MC precipitation by several days and offering promise for sub-seasonal prediction. Additionally, long-lived cold surges drive persistent SST cooling over the SCS and East China Sea through enhanced surface fluxes. These results highlight the critical role of coupled tropical–extratropical and ocean–atmosphere interactions in cold surge dynamics and underscore their potential for improving intra-seasonal forecast skill in Southeast Asia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100868"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Observed trends in precipitation extreme indices as inferred from a homogenized daily precipitation dataset for Canada","authors":"Xiaolan L. Wang,&nbsp;Yang Feng","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100860","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100860","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study first developed a homogenized daily precipitation dataset for 425 long-term stations across Canada. Then, it used the homogenized data to assess trends in annual maximum one-day and five-day precipitation, annual maximum one-day snowfall and rainfall, and annual number of heavy precipitation days, of heavy snowfall days, and of heavy rainfall days.</div><div>The results show that trends in precipitation extreme indices are dominantly positive across Canada, while trends in extreme snowfall amounts are dominantly negative in southern Canada but dominantly positive in northern Canada. Over the period of 1949–2023, the rate of increase in regional mean indices is estimated to be 2.2 % and 1.7 % per decade for Canada's North and South, respectively, for annual maximum one-day precipitation, and 1.4 % and 1.3 % per decade for annual maximum five-day precipitation. The regional mean annual number of heavy precipitation days is estimated to have increased by 4.3 % per decade in Canada's North and 0.9 % per decade in Canada's South (increased at 56 % and 54 % of the stations, respectively). The regional mean annual maximum 1-day snowfall is estimated to have decreased by 0.5 % per decade in Canada's South but increased by 1.7 % per decade in Canada's North. For regional mean heavy snowfall days, the rate of decrease is estimated to be 3.4 % per decade in Canada's South, matched with an increase of 1.1 % per decade in Canada's North. Similar trend characteristics are seen at southern stations over their longer data record periods (since 1900 or later but before 1949).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100860"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146048453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}