20世纪60年代以来中国多时间尺度降水变率的增加

IF 6.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Xuyang Mo , Wenxia Zhang , Tianjun Zhou
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中国降水的频率和强度发生了显著变化。一个相关的行为是降水的变率,它描述了降水事件的时间波动。然而,目前尚不清楚中国不同时间尺度的降水变异性是如何变化的。在这项研究中,我们发现自20世纪60年代以来,中国的降水变率显著增加,平均每十年增加2.3%。这种增加在天气到季节内的时间尺度上都存在。各季节降水变率的增加都很明显,冬季的百分比增加幅度最大,约为夏季的3倍。从区域上看,中国西北部、东北部和东南部降水变率显著上升,而沿华北至西南的干湿过渡带降水变率下降不显著。与平均和极端降水趋势相比,降水变率的增加范围更广,幅度更大。前10%极端降水事件的变化贡献了全国降水变率放大的约75%。除了长期趋势外,中国东部夏季降水变率还受到太平洋年代际涛动的调制。研究表明,自20世纪60年代以来,中国不同时间尺度、季节和地区的降水变率显著增加,对干旱、洪水和水资源管理产生了深远的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Increased precipitation variability at multi-timescales in China since the 1960s
The frequency and intensity of precipitation have changed significantly in China as previously reported. A relevant behavior is the variability of precipitation, which describes temporal fluctuations of precipitation events. Yet it remains unclear how precipitation variability has changed at different timescales over China. In this study, we show that precipitation variability has increased significantly since the 1960s, averaging 2.3 % per decade across China. The increase exists across the synoptic to intraseasonal timescales. The increase in precipitation variability is evident in all seasons with the greatest rate in winter in percentage, which is approximately three times as much as that in summer. Regionally, precipitation variability has risen significantly in northwestern, northeastern, and southeastern China, but has decreased insignificantly along the wet-dry transition belt extending from the north to southwestern China. Compared to trends in mean and extreme precipitation, the increase of precipitation variability is more widespread and with greater magnitudes. The changes in the top 10 % extreme precipitation events contribute ∼75 % of the amplification of precipitation variability nationwide. In addition to long-term trend, summer precipitation variability over eastern China is modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This study revealed robust increases in precipitation variability over China since the 1960s across different timescales, seasons, and regions, which have far-reaching impacts on droughts, floods, and water resource management.
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来源期刊
Weather and Climate Extremes
Weather and Climate Extremes Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.50%
发文量
102
审稿时长
33 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather and Climate Extremes Target Audience: Academics Decision makers International development agencies Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) Civil society Focus Areas: Research in weather and climate extremes Monitoring and early warning systems Assessment of vulnerability and impacts Developing and implementing intervention policies Effective risk management and adaptation practices Engagement of local communities in adopting coping strategies Information and communication strategies tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances
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