Impacts of climate change on extreme weather indices in Ecuadorian cities: A socioeconomic analysis

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to Ecuador, a nation characterized by diverse climates and geographical features. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on extreme weather events and socioeconomic variables across nine key Ecuadorian cities using the RegCM4 regional climate model and the Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index (GRDI). The analysis includes historical trends and future projections under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three extreme climatic indices: Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Cold Nights (TN10p), and Warm Spell Duration Indicator (WSDI). Our findings indicate a consistent increase in CDD and WSDI, with significant decreases in TN10p across all cities over the past four decades, which are projected to continue under future climate scenarios. A Random Forest model was employed to explore the socio-economic impacts by predicting future changes in GRDI, highlighting how urban and rural deprivation might evolve in response to climatic changes. The results underscore the need for targeted adaptation strategies to address the unique vulnerabilities of each city and emphasize the critical role of land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) in mitigating climate change impacts. This study provides essential insights for policymakers and stakeholders, emphasizing the urgency of integrating climate resilience into urban development to ensure sustainable futures for urban centers in Ecuador.