1961 - 2020年极端降水对西北地区加湿的驱动作用

IF 6.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Lijuan Hua , Linhao Zhong , Zhaohui Gong , Zhuguo Ma
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引用次数: 0

摘要

西北地区是典型的干旱半干旱区,是气候敏感和脆弱地区。在过去的几十年里,该地区经历了一个显著的加湿趋势。了解该地区降水和大气水循环的特征和趋势,对预测该湿化过程的未来演变至关重要。根据1961 ~ 2020年西北地区降水的观测资料和再分析资料,将降水事件划分为20个类区间。分析表明,总降水增加趋势的70%以上是由日降水事件的前10%引起的,极端降水频率的增加占观测到的变化的大部分,其中频率增加的贡献率约为强度增加的10倍。15 d后向水汽示踪分析表明,该地区约69%的水汽来自陆地蒸发,21%来自西北地区的局地蒸发。与轻降水事件相比,强降水事件具有更大的外部水汽输送量、更高的区域再循环率和更高的降水效率。进一步分析表明,近60 a来,西北地区与降水事件相关的水汽滞留时间为8.6 d。第95个降水百分位以上的极端事件平均水汽停留时间约为5 d,且水汽停留时间呈增加趋势,主要受印度洋跨赤道水汽输送通道的建立和增强驱动。同时,西风带陆源水汽贡献的减少,加上区域蒸发的增强,进一步提高了降水效率。这些因素导致西北地区极端降水事件日数显著增加,是该地区湿化趋势的主要驱动因素。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The role of extreme precipitation in driving the humidification of northwest China from 1961 to 2020
Northwest China is a typical arid and semi-arid region, and a critical climate-sensitive and vulnerable area. Over the past few decades, the region has experienced a significant humidification trend. Understanding the characteristics and trends of precipitation and atmospheric water cycles in this region is crucial for predicting the future evolution of this humidification process. Based on observational and reanalysis data, this study categorizes precipitation events in Northwest China from 1961 to 2020 into 20 class intervals. The analysis reveals that over 70 % of the total increasing trend in precipitation is due to the upper 10 % of daily precipitation events, and the rise in extreme precipitation frequency accounting for most of the observed changes, in which the contribution rate of the increase in frequency is approximately 10 times that of the increase in intensity. A 15-day backward moisture tracing analysis indicates that approximately 69 % of the moisture in the region originates from terrestrial evaporation, and 21 % contributed by local evaporation within Northwest China. Compared to light precipitation events, strong precipitation events are associated with more substantial external moisture transport, higher regional recycling ratios, and greater precipitation efficiency. Further analysis shows that over the past 60 years, the residence time of moisture associated with the precipitation events in Northwest China is 8.6 days. The extreme events above the 95th precipitation percentile have a mean moisture residence time of about 5 days, with an increasing trend that is mainly driven by the establishment and enhancement of the cross-equatorial moisture transport channel from the Indian Ocean. Concurrently, the decline in moisture contributions from terrestrial sources in the westerly belt, combined with strengthened regional evaporation, has further improved precipitation efficiency. These factors have led to a significant increase in the number of days with extreme precipitation events in Northwest China, serving as a primary driver of the humidification trend of this region.
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来源期刊
Weather and Climate Extremes
Weather and Climate Extremes Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.50%
发文量
102
审稿时长
33 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather and Climate Extremes Target Audience: Academics Decision makers International development agencies Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) Civil society Focus Areas: Research in weather and climate extremes Monitoring and early warning systems Assessment of vulnerability and impacts Developing and implementing intervention policies Effective risk management and adaptation practices Engagement of local communities in adopting coping strategies Information and communication strategies tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances
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