华北暖季极端小时降水40年统计

IF 6.9 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Zilan Pei , Xiaopeng Cui , Rouyi Jiang
{"title":"华北暖季极端小时降水40年统计","authors":"Zilan Pei ,&nbsp;Xiaopeng Cui ,&nbsp;Rouyi Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100761","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>North China (NC) is confronted with high risks of extreme precipitation events due to global warming and anthropogenic activities. Based on hourly gauge data from May to September during 1983–2022, this study investigates the distributions and trends of extreme hourly precipitation (EHP) and maximum hourly precipitation (MHP) in NC, and their linkages with elevation of stations. EHP is defined as the hourly precipitation exceeding the relative threshold (95th percentile). The results show that the threshold and EHP intensity increase from west to east, while the EHP amount rises from northwest to southeast. Overall, a significant increasing trend is observed in “station-mean” EHP amount in NC from 1983 to 2022, primarily driven by notable increase of EHP frequency. The distribution of EHP variables is closely correlated with elevation. Among the different terrain zones in NC, significant increases in EHP variables are observed both in plains (≤50 m) and mountains (&gt;300 m). Notably, mountain stations show the most pronounced increase in EHP variables, with a noticeable rise in the probability of high-intensity EHP during the latter 20 years of the study period (2003–2022). Analysis of the anomalous circulation and long-term changes of circulation factors reveal that the westward leap expansion of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and significant increases in temperature and moisture are likely the direct causes of the overall increase of EHP and MHP in NC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100761"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"40-Year statistics of warm-season extreme hourly precipitation over North China\",\"authors\":\"Zilan Pei ,&nbsp;Xiaopeng Cui ,&nbsp;Rouyi Jiang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100761\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>North China (NC) is confronted with high risks of extreme precipitation events due to global warming and anthropogenic activities. Based on hourly gauge data from May to September during 1983–2022, this study investigates the distributions and trends of extreme hourly precipitation (EHP) and maximum hourly precipitation (MHP) in NC, and their linkages with elevation of stations. EHP is defined as the hourly precipitation exceeding the relative threshold (95th percentile). The results show that the threshold and EHP intensity increase from west to east, while the EHP amount rises from northwest to southeast. Overall, a significant increasing trend is observed in “station-mean” EHP amount in NC from 1983 to 2022, primarily driven by notable increase of EHP frequency. The distribution of EHP variables is closely correlated with elevation. Among the different terrain zones in NC, significant increases in EHP variables are observed both in plains (≤50 m) and mountains (&gt;300 m). Notably, mountain stations show the most pronounced increase in EHP variables, with a noticeable rise in the probability of high-intensity EHP during the latter 20 years of the study period (2003–2022). Analysis of the anomalous circulation and long-term changes of circulation factors reveal that the westward leap expansion of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and significant increases in temperature and moisture are likely the direct causes of the overall increase of EHP and MHP in NC.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48630,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Weather and Climate Extremes\",\"volume\":\"48 \",\"pages\":\"Article 100761\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-03-12\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Weather and Climate Extremes\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000192\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Weather and Climate Extremes","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094725000192","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

受全球气候变暖和人为活动影响,华北地区是极端降水事件频发的地区。利用1983-2022年5 ~ 9月的逐时降水资料,研究了中国东北地区极端逐时降水(EHP)和最大逐时降水(MHP)的分布和趋势,以及它们与台站高程的关系。EHP定义为每小时降水超过相对阈值(第95百分位)。结果表明:从西向东,EHP阈值和强度逐渐增大;从西北向东南,EHP总量逐渐增大;总体而言,1983 - 2022年华北地区“站平均”EHP数量呈显著增加趋势,主要是由于EHP频率显著增加所致。EHP变量的分布与海拔高度密切相关。在不同地形带中,平原(≤50 m)和山地(≤300 m)的EHP变量均显著增加,其中山地站的EHP变量增加最为明显,高强度EHP发生的概率在研究期的后20年(2003-2022年)显著增加。异常环流和环流因子的长期变化分析表明,西太平洋副热带高压向西跃迁扩张、温度和湿度的显著升高可能是导致北太平洋地区EHP和MHP总体上升的直接原因。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
40-Year statistics of warm-season extreme hourly precipitation over North China
North China (NC) is confronted with high risks of extreme precipitation events due to global warming and anthropogenic activities. Based on hourly gauge data from May to September during 1983–2022, this study investigates the distributions and trends of extreme hourly precipitation (EHP) and maximum hourly precipitation (MHP) in NC, and their linkages with elevation of stations. EHP is defined as the hourly precipitation exceeding the relative threshold (95th percentile). The results show that the threshold and EHP intensity increase from west to east, while the EHP amount rises from northwest to southeast. Overall, a significant increasing trend is observed in “station-mean” EHP amount in NC from 1983 to 2022, primarily driven by notable increase of EHP frequency. The distribution of EHP variables is closely correlated with elevation. Among the different terrain zones in NC, significant increases in EHP variables are observed both in plains (≤50 m) and mountains (>300 m). Notably, mountain stations show the most pronounced increase in EHP variables, with a noticeable rise in the probability of high-intensity EHP during the latter 20 years of the study period (2003–2022). Analysis of the anomalous circulation and long-term changes of circulation factors reveal that the westward leap expansion of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and significant increases in temperature and moisture are likely the direct causes of the overall increase of EHP and MHP in NC.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Weather and Climate Extremes
Weather and Climate Extremes Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.50%
发文量
102
审稿时长
33 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather and Climate Extremes Target Audience: Academics Decision makers International development agencies Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) Civil society Focus Areas: Research in weather and climate extremes Monitoring and early warning systems Assessment of vulnerability and impacts Developing and implementing intervention policies Effective risk management and adaptation practices Engagement of local communities in adopting coping strategies Information and communication strategies tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信