Urban ClimatePub Date : 2026-06-08DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102967
Jiawei Fu, Silvia Tavares, David King, Stephen Naylor
{"title":"Quantifying outdoor thermal comfort in different street vegetation arrangements: Insights from a study in tropical and subtropical Australian cities","authors":"Jiawei Fu, Silvia Tavares, David King, Stephen Naylor","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102967","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102967","url":null,"abstract":"Street vegetation serves as a nature-based strategy for urban heat mitigation leading to improved outdoor thermal comfort (OTC). A sound understanding of spatial and temporal OTC variation in different street vegetation arrangements is essential to strategically develop urban heat mitigation planning and design. This study introduces a methodology framework that quantifies the thermal improvement in different street vegetation arrangements by using three indices - cooling intensity (CI), cooling area (CA) and cooling duration (CD). The framework is applied to four streets in tropical and subtropical Australian cities to quantify Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) over a 24-h period. Results indicate that the street with trees on the west-facing side experienced a longer duration of street thermal enhancement (up to 38% CD improvement). During daytime hours, the OTC improvement in the planting scenarios with additional trees in the street centre (median strip) incorporating multiple vertical layers of vegetation is more pronounced in the studied subtropical urban area (up to 2.02 °C CI in Ipswich) than that in the studied tropical urban area (up to 1.03 °C CI in Townsville). These findings can contribute to urban heat mitigation planning and design in tropical and subtropical cities worldwide. The methodology framework proposed in this study provides a foundation for quantifying spatial and temporal OTC variation in different street vegetation arrangements, and establishes an adaptive framework for landscape architects, urban designers and planners, and decision-makers worldwide to evaluate urban street thermal environments.","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"19 1","pages":"102967"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148289462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Urban ClimatePub Date : 2026-06-08DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102964
Ladd Keith, Sara Meerow, Malini Roy, Shaylynn Trego, Saeideh Sobhaninia
{"title":"Integrating three plan evaluation approaches for coordinated heat resilience in cities across the Arizona urban corridor","authors":"Ladd Keith, Sara Meerow, Malini Roy, Shaylynn Trego, Saeideh Sobhaninia","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102964","url":null,"abstract":"Increasing heat poses a growing threat to cities worldwide due to both climate change and the urban heat island effect. While heat planning and governance are still emergent, research suggests that silos and conflicts within cities' networks of plans often impede heat resilience. Integrated heat resilience planning, therefore, requires a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the silos and conflicts relevant to heat resilience within networks of plans. This study is the first to combine three complementary plan evaluation methods to assess how cities' networks of plans address heat resilience. We applied 1) plan cross-referencing, 2) Plan Quality Evaluation for Heat Resilience, and 3) Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard™ (PIRS™) for Heat to 19 plans from seven Arizona cities. We find similarities and differences in how these cities' networks of plans address heat hazards. The plans have consistently high-quality participation and coordination principles but lack details on vulnerability and climate change uncertainty, suggesting a need to move beyond immediate heat risks. We also identify opportunities to diversify policy mechanisms, spatially target high heat risk areas, and enhance the connection between planning efforts. These results validate that plan elements are interlinked and the importance of integrative plan development processes to improve heat resilience.","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"25 1","pages":"102964"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148289487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Urban ClimatePub Date : 2026-06-08DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102975
Soha S. Tabatabaei, Rima Fayaz, Sohrab Veiseh
{"title":"Impact of facade materials on urban heat island mitigation: A systematic review","authors":"Soha S. Tabatabaei, Rima Fayaz, Sohrab Veiseh","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102975","url":null,"abstract":"The urban heat island (UHI) effect, a critical consequence of the urbanization process, has destructive impacts on human health, the economy, and livability in cities. As cities grow vertically, the role of building façades in UHI mitigation in urban valleys has become increasingly vital. This systematic review analyzes 78 relevant studies to categorize façade materials, evaluate how their properties influence UHI, consider how regional climate affects optimal material selection, find knowledge gaps, and propose directions for future research. The literature review, guided by PRISMA, selected articles on facade-based strategies for UHI mitigation, excluding irrelevant or methodologically weak studies. After a full-text screening for relevance, a qualitative content analysis was conducted involving coding and categorization. This analysis identified five distinct research approaches: high-reflectance facade materials, green walls, active and passive facade cladding systems, common facade materials, and facade cladding systems in combination with urban morphology. The findings suggest facade albedo is directly correlated with surface and air temperature reduction (R<ce:sup loc=\"post\">2</ce:sup> = 0.42, 0.34), whereas emissivity is inversely related (R<ce:sup loc=\"post\">2</ce:sup> = 0.16, 0.11). Green walls are among the most effective solutions for UHI mitigation, producing air temperature reductions ranging from 0.5 °C to 8 °C across climates, although they may be constrained by water supply limitations in arid regions. Future studies should prioritize real-world applicability, regional-scale simulations, multi-objective optimization for UHI mitigation, energy efficiency, and thermal comfort, the effects of materials and urban morphology, hybrid solutions incorporating reflective-green walls, and multi-dimensional performance assessment, including human comfort under different climates and life cycle assessment.","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"147 1","pages":"102975"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148289485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Urban ClimatePub Date : 2026-06-07DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102977
Zachary D. Calhoun, Mike Bergin, David Carlson
{"title":"Probabilistic interpolation of crowdsourced meteorological data for higher-resolution gridded estimates of surface air temperature","authors":"Zachary D. Calhoun, Mike Bergin, David Carlson","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102977","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102977","url":null,"abstract":"Crowdsourced air temperature data from networks like Weather Underground offer dense spatial coverage and are increasingly used to study the canopy urban heat island (CUHI) effect. However, these observations are noisy: siting conditions, environmental interference, and sensor failures introduce spatially and temporally varying bias. This complicates interpolation, limiting our ability to estimate neighborhood-level air temperature. While interpolation techniques such as kriging account for uncertainty, they do so under the assumption of homoscedasticity. Moreover, they struggle to scale beyond a few thousand observations, limiting their utility on crowdsourced data. To overcome these limitations, we develop a sparse variational Gaussian process model that accounts for heteroscedasticity, allowing us to efficiently interpolate air temperature fields with calibrated uncertainty quantification. To test our approach, we apply our model to six years of hourly data across Durham County, North Carolina, and compare predictions at held-out sensor locations with linearly-interpolated ERA5-Land. Our method improves estimates at held-out locations (MAE=0.57 °C versus ERA5-Land MAE=3.20 °C) and enables high-resolution analysis of CUHI patterns over space and time. We illustrate this by visualizing (1) how CUHI patterns vary with synoptic conditions, (2) differential impacts on heating and cooling demand, and (3) annual hours exceeding 35 °C by neighborhood. Our method provides a scalable and statistically rigorous framework for transforming crowdsourced climate data into a gridded reanalysis product. Using this product, we can better quantify urban heat exposure and its impact on health and energy.","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"172 1","pages":"102977"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148289484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Urban ClimatePub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-06-02DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102971
Alimohammad Sedaghat , Eli P. Martin , David J. Sailor
{"title":"Thermal impacts of large-scale cool pavement: Field results and methodological insights for urban climate studies","authors":"Alimohammad Sedaghat , Eli P. Martin , David J. Sailor","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102971","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102971","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pavements are a major contributor to the urban heat island effect due in part to their very low solar reflectance. Use of reflective “cool” paving is one strategy that can reduce absorption of solar radiation, resulting in lower surface and air temperatures (T<sub>srf</sub> and T<sub>air</sub>). Although cool paving effects have been studied in numerical models, there have been limited field studies—with conflicting conclusions. Here, we assess the thermal performance of cool pavement on T<sub>srf</sub> and T<sub>air</sub> (at 1.6 m and 3 m height), solar reflectivity degradation over time, and human thermal comfort using detailed, long-term field measurements over an 11,500 m<sup>2</sup> site in north Phoenix. The analysis used two methods: real-time (RT) side-by-side comparisons and difference-in-differences (DD) to quantify changes before and after cool pavement installation. The greatest mean T<sub>air</sub> reduction occurred in the late afternoon and early evening (0.58 °C DD, 0.31 °C RT), specifically under clear skies with winds ≥4.5 m s<sup>−1</sup>, while the maximum reduction at pedestrian height occurred in the early afternoon hours. Cool pavement reduced subsurface, and surface temperatures by up to 3.9, and 8.3 °C, respectively. We found that during daylight hours, reflected shortwave radiation caused apparent heating in sensor readings, easily corrected by using aspirated sensors. Human thermal comfort analysis showed slight midday discomfort from higher reflected shortwave radiation (cool pavement), but evening comfort improved due to reductions in T<sub>air</sub>. Our results also show that the mean solar reflectivity of the cool pavement decreased by 53% (from 0.28 to 0.13) over 21 months.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 102971"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148167880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Urban ClimatePub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-05-27DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102963
Chen Ren , Chang Xi , Yaru Meng , Hongjun Zhang , Mingming Zhao , Shi-Jie Cao
{"title":"Mitigating PM2.5 exposure and health impacts for school-aged children: The role of street canyon layouts and greenery design","authors":"Chen Ren , Chang Xi , Yaru Meng , Hongjun Zhang , Mingming Zhao , Shi-Jie Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102963","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102963","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Under the dual pressures of global climate change and rapid urbanization, urban air pollution — especially fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) — poses a severe and growing health risk to children. School commutes are a period of particularly high exposure for children; however, most studies focus on pollutant dispersion at the mean adult breathing height, leaving a gap in evidence regarding school-aged children's vulnerability. This study used numerical simulations to systematically explore how street canyon layouts (orientation, length, and width) and greenery configurations (trees and shrubs) impact PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration distributions at children's breathing height during school commutes. Results showed that street orientation relative to the prevailing wind significantly affected children's exposure, with streets perpendicular to the wind exhibiting 16% higher PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration on windward sidewalks than parallel-oriented streets. The factor of width and length also played a critical role, with four-lane streets resulting in PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations 1.7 times higher than single-lane streets, and long canyons led to concentrations on the windward sidewalk up to 3.5 times those in short canyons. Planting dense shrubs (ALL-shrub) along roadsides was the most effective configuration, reducing sidewalk PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations and related child mortality risk by up to 22% compared to scenarios without shrubs. Targeted intervention strategies were proposed, including optimized shrub placement and traffic regulation during peak commute hours, to mitigate child-specific exposure. This work provides actionable insights for urban designers and environmental planners, emphasizing the importance of integrating children's health protection into sustainable urban development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 102963"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148168000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Evaluating AQI limitations and proposing an enhanced urban air quality index integrating black carbon and methane across diverse urban climates","authors":"Veena N Bhajantri , Agrim Jain , Sonam Paliya , Ashootosh Mandpe","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102980","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102980","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>India's air pollution crisis reflects not only rising emissions but also limitations in measurement and policy systems. The National Air Quality Index (NAQI) maintained by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) currently excludes black carbon (BC) and methane (CH<sub>4</sub>), two critical short-lived climate pollutants with significant environmental relevance. This study evaluates the implications of integrating these pollutants into air quality assessment using six years (2019-2025) of weekly data for eight pollutants across three cities representing diverse geographical, climatic, and urbanization contexts, including Delhi, Indore, and Gangtok. Seven machine learning models, such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, LightGBM, Support Vector Regression, Multilayer Perceptron, and Ensemble, were developed and compared for pollutant prediction. Gradient Boosting showed the most consistent performance (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.929 for NO<sub>2</sub> in Indore and R<sup>2</sup> = 0.930 for PM<sub>10</sub> in Delhi), while ensemble approaches performed better under the complex mountainous conditions of Gangtok. Pollutant correlation analysis revealed distinct city-specific emission patterns, including a multi-source combustion profile in Delhi, a notable negative correlation between O<sub>3</sub> and BC in Indore (<em>r</em> = 0.600), and solid-fuel dominance in Gangtok. A comparison between the conventional NAQI and the proposed Extended AQI (EAQI) indicated that the existing NAQI system systematically underestimates pollution levels. The findings support incorporating BC and CH<sub>4</sub> into India's AQI system to improve air quality assessment, climate-resilient planning, and public health advisories.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 102980"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148168001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Urban ClimatePub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-05-27DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102956
Linus Faymonville, Jannik Heusinger, Stephan Weber
{"title":"Combining shortwave reflectivity and evaporation in a novel rooftop solution for urban cooling","authors":"Linus Faymonville, Jannik Heusinger, Stephan Weber","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change increases the need for urban heat mitigation measures. Green and cool roofs are well-known heat mitigation measures that use two different cooling mechanisms, evapotranspiration and reflection of shortwave radiation. In this study we tested a roof prototype for the first time that combines both processes by using stone wool as a water storage layer and high albedo marble pebbles as surface layer. Our empirical results of this hybrid roof demonstrate that surface temperatures were up to 13 <span><math><mrow><mo>°</mo><mi>C</mi></mrow></math></span> lower and water storage up to 0.4 m<sup>3</sup> m<sup>-3</sup> higher compared to an extensive green roof module during two hot summer days in Braunschweig, Germany. We conducted an in-depth evaluation of the hygrothermal building energy model WUFI for its ability to simulate extensive green roofs and our hybrid roof prototype. We then conducted comparative simulations for a non-irrigated, extensive green roof, the hybrid roof prototype, a typical cool roof with albedo of 0.7 and a dark roof in 19 different Köppen Geiger (KP) climates. The hybrid roof demonstrated superior outdoor cooling performance based on sensible heat flux reduction compared to a non-irrigated extensive green roof in all climates. Similar outdoor cooling performance as the cool roof (deviations <span><math><mo><</mo></math></span> 10%) were found in continental climates as well as some temperate and tropical climates. In contrast to cool roofs the hybrid roof additionally provides storm water retention capabilities. Further optimization pathways of our hybrid roof prototype are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 102956"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148168004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Urban ClimatePub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-06-02DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102982
Wenge Ni-Meister , Qian Allen Luo , Jason Covert , Prathap Ramamurthy , Lixin Lu
{"title":"Urbanization controls surface energy partitioning and energy balance closure across the New York City urban-exurban gradient","authors":"Wenge Ni-Meister , Qian Allen Luo , Jason Covert , Prathap Ramamurthy , Lixin Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102982","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102982","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban development modifies surface–atmosphere energy exchanges, yet the spatial and temporal variability of surface energy balance (SEB) components and turbulent energy balance closure (EBC) across heterogeneous urban environments remains poorly understood. This study examines how urbanization alters surface energy partitioning and EBC using six years (2019–2025) of eddy covariance measurements across an urban–suburban–exurban gradient in the New York City metropolitan region.</div><div>Our analysis reveals a clear urbanization-driven gradient in energy partitioning. Urban sites are dominated by sensible heat flux, with anthropogenic heat emerging as a major energy source in winter, while latent heat flux remains minimal year-round. In contrast, suburban and exurban sites are latent heat dominated in summer. Heat storage increases proportionally with urbanization intensity, particularly in summer.</div><div>Energy balance closure decreases systematically with increasing urbanization intensity, from near-complete closure at the exurban site in summer to persistently low closure at urban sites year-round. This gradient is governed primarily by urbanization-induced shifts in energy partitioning rather than by atmospheric stability. Abundant latent heat flux at suburban and exurban sites promotes efficient turbulent exchange and higher summer closure, whereas its suppression in urban areas reduces closure year-round. Enhanced anthropogenic sensible heat release partly compensates in winter, producing a counterintuitive seasonal reversal, higher closure in winter than in summer, unique to urban sites. These findings demonstrate that surface energy partitioning, rather than atmospheric conditions, is the dominant control on EBC across urban environments, with important implications for improving urban land-surface parameterizations in weather and climate models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 102982"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148168006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Urban ClimatePub Date : 2026-06-01Epub Date: 2026-06-02DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102966
Gerverse Kamukama Ebaju , Fangmin Zhang , Emmanuel Yeboah , Abraham Okrah , Ronald Odongo , Adongo Betty Linda , Magara Genesis , Vincent Awuku , Princella Ofori Darko , Ishmeal Quist , Augustine O.K.N. Mensah , Collins Oduro
{"title":"Urban expansion and its effects on land surface temperature and vegetation in three east African cities","authors":"Gerverse Kamukama Ebaju , Fangmin Zhang , Emmanuel Yeboah , Abraham Okrah , Ronald Odongo , Adongo Betty Linda , Magara Genesis , Vincent Awuku , Princella Ofori Darko , Ishmeal Quist , Augustine O.K.N. Mensah , Collins Oduro","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102966","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102966","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid urbanization in East Africa profoundly transforms landscapes, yet a critical understanding of the causal mechanisms behind associated land surface warming remains limited. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics and causal drivers of urban expansion and its thermal impacts in three East African cities; Wakiso-Kampala (Uganda), Nairobi (Kenya), and Bujumbura (Burundi) from 1995 to 2024. Using Landsat imagery, we derived land use/land cover (LULC), Land Surface Temperature (LST), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI). Land Cover Thermal Impact (LCTI) metric was introduced to quantify per-unit-area warming contributions, while Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM, with causal strength measured by ρ) and its spatial extension, Geographical CCM (GCCM), were applied to distinguish causal links from correlation. Results show built-up areas tripled in Wakiso-Kampala and Nairobi and quadrupled in Bujumbura, displacing 35–80% of natural vegetation and croplands. This expansion drove a mean LST increase of 5.1 °C, 3.3 °C, and 2.7 °C, respectively. The LCTI revealed that water bodies provided the most efficient per-unit-area cooling in Wakiso-Kampala (LCTI = −1.49 °C km<sup>−2</sup>) and Bujumbura, while forest gains and bare-land conversion were the primary cooling mechanisms in Nairobi. Crucially, causal analysis revealed an asymmetric relationship: NDBI acted as a driver of LST (ρ up to 0.77), while NDVI exerted a cooling causal influence (ρ down to −0.57). These findings confirm that urban expansion and vegetation loss are fundamental, causal drivers of rising surface temperatures. We conclude that urban planning must prioritize the preservation of blue-green infrastructure to mitigate heat island effects in East Africa's rapidly growing cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"67 ","pages":"Article 102966"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148167878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}