城市分区抗洪能力演化：一个考虑内部灾害动态的分析框架

IF 6.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Urban Climate Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI:10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102572

Daoyang Zheng , Ling Zhu , Zhiqiang Xie , Junyu Lian , Zhiyong Yuan , Yifei Liu , Shihan Bai , Tong Xu , Haibin Zhou , Feng Xu

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引用次数: 0

摘要

城市街道作为城市区域的重要组成部分，在全球气候变化和城市化的背景下，在防洪方面发挥着突出的作用。中国城市街道内部构成的复杂性导致其抗洪能力各不相同。目前的方法主要采用指数体系和空间叠加分析来评估洪水恢复力，未能揭示灾害期间街道内元素间耦合的影响。这种不足导致分区抗洪能力评价不够理想。基于压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型和自然、社会、经济和基础设施（PSR- nsei）维度，构建了分区抗洪能力框架。采用DEMATEL-AHP方法设计专家调查，探讨街道抗洪能力影响因素的耦合机制。本研究揭示了2010 - 2021年昆明市42个街道洪水恢复力的演变，并利用ArcGIS软件对其进行了定量评价。研究发现：(1)各维度的耦合效应显著影响洪涝恢复力，耦合良好的成熟街道具有更高的恢复力。②基础设施和经济维度对街道抗洪能力水平的影响最为显著，中心性值分别为1.305和1.238，而自然维度仅为1.086；(3)自然维度和经济维度受街道内部相互作用的影响最大，响应值分别为- 0.513和- 0.060。(4) 2010-2021年期间，与低弹性街道相比，中等弹性街道的弹性增强最为显著。该研究进一步量化了影响洪水的维度之间的耦合关系，为提高城市街道的抗洪能力提供决策支持。

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Resilience evolution of urban sub-districts to flooding: An analytical framework considering internal disaster dynamics

As vital components of urban areas, urban sub-districts play a prominent role in flood prevention against the backdrop of global climate change and urbanization. The complexity of the internal composition of sub-districts across Chinese cities leads to varied flood resilience capabilities. Current methods primarily employ index systems and spatial overlay analysis to assess flood resilience, failing to reveal the impacts of inter-element coupling within sub-districts during disasters. This inadequacy results in sub-optimal evaluations of sub-district flood resilience. This paper develops a sub-district flood resilience framework based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model and the dimensions of nature, society, economy, and infrastructure (PSR-NSEI). It employs the DEMATEL-AHP method to design expert surveys, exploring the coupling mechanisms of factors affecting flood resilience in sub-districts. The study reveals the evolution of flood resilience from 2010 to 2021 in 42 sub-districts of Kunming, China, and quantitatively assesses it using ArcGIS software. Findings include: (1) The coupled effects of various dimensions significantly influence flood resilience, with well-coupled mature sub-districts exhibiting higher resilience. (2) Infrastructure and economic dimensions have the most significant impact on the flood resilience level of sub-districts, with centrality values of 1.305 and 1.238, respectively, while the natural dimension is only at 1.086. (3) Natural and economic dimensions are most affected by internal interactions within sub-districts, with response values of −0.513 and − 0.060. (4) Compared to sub-districts with low resilience, those with medium resilience showed the most significant enhancement in resilience during the 2010–2021 period. This study further quantifies the coupling relationships of dimensions affecting floods, providing decision-making support for enhancing flood resilience in urban sub-districts in China.

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来源期刊

Urban Climate Social Sciences-Urban Studies

CiteScore

9.70

自引率

9.40%

发文量

286

期刊介绍： Urban Climate serves the scientific and decision making communities with the publication of research on theory, science and applications relevant to understanding urban climatic conditions and change in relation to their geography and to demographic, socioeconomic, institutional, technological and environmental dynamics and global change. Targeted towards both disciplinary and interdisciplinary audiences, this journal publishes original research papers, comprehensive review articles, book reviews, and short communications on topics including, but not limited to, the following: Urban meteorology and climate[...] Urban environmental pollution[...] Adaptation to global change[...] Urban economic and social issues[...] Research Approaches[...]