Urban Climate最新文献

{"title":"The urbanization difference between the two sides of the Greater Bay Area regulates the evolution divergence of sea-land breeze","authors":"Chenxi Liu,&nbsp;Haichao Wang,&nbsp;Guowen He,&nbsp;Lei Li,&nbsp;Xiaorui Chen,&nbsp;Xiao Lu,&nbsp;Shaojia Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103085","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103085","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sea-land breeze (SLB) circulation plays an important role in alleviating high temperature, and influencing regional climate in coastal cities. This study investigates the long-term trends (1996–2023) and evolution of SLB circulation response to the change of urbanization and sea surface air temperature in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with a focus on the comparing responses between the eastern and western banks of the Pearl River Estuary (EPRE and WPRE). We find the WPRE displays a marked decline in SLB days decreasing by 11.5 days decade⁻¹. In contrast, EPRE exhibits a notable increase, with SLB days rising by 6.5 days decade⁻¹. This difference is primarily driven by varying urbanization rates between the two regions. Rapid urbanization in EPRE counteracts the effects of oceanic warming, slightly enhancing the land-sea temperature gradient, leading to increased SLB frequency and earlier sea breeze onset. Meanwhile, slower urbanization in WPRE results in a land warming rate that lags behind oceanic warming, causing a reduction in SLB frequency and delayed sea breeze onset. Both regions, however, exhibit declining trends in SLB intensity and duration. This widespread weakening of intensity and duration is mainly attributed to changes in surface properties due to urbanization. Increased surface roughness and friction in urban areas reduce near-surface wind speeds, while complex urban structures generate local thermal circulations, further weakening SLB persistence. These results advance our understanding of the influences of urbanization to local SLB circulation in coastal cities and provide a scientific basis for the development of coastal cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 103085"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148717258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deep uncertainty analysis to characterise regional climate for building stock transition: A Nordic empirical study","authors":"Kailun Feng,&nbsp;Shuo Wang,&nbsp;Santhan Reddy Penaka,&nbsp;Erik Eklund,&nbsp;Weizhuo Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103057","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103057","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Regional climate exhibits substantial uncertainty, driven by variables with unreliable probability distributions and unclear future trajectories. However, the energy-efficient and climate-resilient transition of building stocks is undertaken and influenced by regional climates. It is therefore essential to evaluate regional climate uncertainty and its impacts on candidate transition strategies. Traditional approaches that rely on probability distributions or exhaustive climate trajectories are not entirely applicable to regional climate contexts.</div><div>A deep uncertainty analysis approach is proposed to characterise regional climate uncertainty and support building stock transition. This approach constructs deep uncertainty of regional climate and models their impacts on building stocks, with afterward data-driven learning and data mining to (i) deliver robust strategies even probability distributions are unavailable, and (ii) identify vulnerable scenarios across plausible climate trajectories for adaptive decisions. It was applied to residential buildings of Umeå region, Sweden, to evaluate its advantages and limitations. Results show that delivered robust strategies reduced performance variability by 84.5% for single-family houses, by 55.3% for multi-family houses under northern Sweden regional climate. Identified climate-vulnerable scenarios significantly undermine performance of selected strategies. Overall, this approach enables analysis of regional climate's deep uncertainty and supports building-stock transitions for diverse regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 103057"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148635926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nature-based solutions in arid and semi-arid countries: A review of best practices and lessons learned","authors":"Davide Danilo Chiarelli,&nbsp;Mariana Marchioni,&nbsp;Francesca Padoan,&nbsp;Elena Cristiano","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Arid and semi-arid regions are defined by low annual precipitation, which contributes to chronic water scarcity and frequent severe drought events. In recent years, climate change has exacerbated these challenges, causing more frequent and intense rainfall events, which increase flood risk, particularly in highly urbanized and densely populated areas, followed by prolonged drought periods. To mitigate both water scarcity and flood effects, several nature-based solutions, commonly used in humid areas, have been readapted and implemented in arid and semiarid climates. Specific guidelines and directives for their implementation in these contexts are, however, not available nor well defined. Based on well-established real applications, this work presents a literature review of the most efficient and commonly used nature-based solutions installed in arid and semi-arid areas. The geographical distribution, the main purpose, the structure, and the vegetation chosen in real case studies have been assessed through a systematic analysis of 89 papers. Results highlight frequent use of green roofs, rain gardens, and water harvesting systems in these regions. The findings of this research could serve as a valuable reference for other cities with similar climatic conditions and support the global promotion and adoption of green infrastructure, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 103060"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148635927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing Urban heat resilience in the Portland metropolitan area: Built environment associations with late-day resistance and evening-to-morning recovery cooling","authors":"YunJae Ock,&nbsp;Vivek Shandas","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103069","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103069","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Persistent late-day and nighttime heat pose health risks, yet urban heat assessments often rely on peak or single-time measures, obscuring how heat burden changes across daily measurement periods. Using modeled near-surface air-temperature surfaces from the 2023 CAPA-NIHHIS Heat Watch campaign in Portland, we assessed afternoon, early-evening, and same-day morning-reference air temperatures across 200 m neighborhood typologies and census block groups. We operationalized heat resilience through two interval-based measures: resistance cooling (afternoon to early evening) and recovery cooling (early evening to morning reference), and estimated cumulative air-temperature exposure over 15 h. Built-environment typologies differed significantly in afternoon temperature, evening temperature, resistance cooling, and recovery cooling. Highly impervious and built-up typologies exhibited higher afternoon and evening temperatures, while low-impervious and high-canopy typologies were cooler. Low Impervious High Canopy neighborhoods showed the greatest resistance cooling (3.5 °F), whereas recovery cooling was highest in Low Impervious Low Building and Moderate-Density Residential neighborhoods. Smaller recovery cooling in high-canopy areas should not be interpreted as poorer thermal performance because they maintained lower absolute temperatures. In the case-study comparison, the High Impervious High Building neighborhood accumulated 35.5 °F·h more exposure than the Low Impervious High Canopy neighborhood and 22.7 °F·h more than the Moderate-Density Residential neighborhood. Spatial error models showed higher income was associated with lower afternoon/evening air temperatures, while larger non-White population shares were associated with reduced recovery cooling after physical controls. These findings support phase-specific and equity-oriented heat resilience planning that considers absolute temperature, interval-based cooling, cumulative exposure, and canopy preservation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 103069"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148635933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Escalating heat waves and human thermal stress over semi-arid Bundelkhand region, India","authors":"Yogeshwar Singh,&nbsp;Rahul Kumar,&nbsp;Soumyajeet Sahu,&nbsp;Shobhit Pipil,&nbsp;Shiv Vendra Singh,&nbsp;Pavan Kumar,&nbsp;Manish Srivastav,&nbsp;A.K. Singh","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103035","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103035","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heatwaves represent one of the most critical climate hazards in semi-arid regions, yet temperature-based assessments often fail to capture the actual thermal stress experienced by human populations. This study investigates long-term changes in heatwave characteristics and associated human thermal stress over the Bundelkhand region of India during 1981–2024 using an integrated climate-thermal-exposure framework. Heatwave events were identified from IMD gridded daily maximum temperature (0.25° × 0.25° resolution) using a percentile-based (95th percentile) and persistence (≥3 days) criterion. Human thermal stress during heatwave conditions was quantified using the Universal Thermal Climate Index derived from ERA5 reanalysis, and population exposure was assessed using a fixed 2021 gridded dataset to isolate climate-driven changes in exposure. All datasets were harmonized to a common 0.25° grid to ensure spatial consistency. Results indicate a statistically significant intensification of heatwaves, with frequency increasing at a regional mean rate of 0.62 days per decade and more than 84% of the study area exhibiting positive trends. Heatwave occurrence remains strongly confined to the pre-monsoon season (April–June). The study provides a robust framework for linking climatic extremes with human exposure, supporting targeted heat adaptation strategies in semi-arid regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 103035"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148635852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimation of anthropogenic heat flux in a city in the Central Amazon","authors":"Carla de Souza Farias,&nbsp;Maria Juliana de Melo Monte,&nbsp;Denisi Holanda Hall,&nbsp;Joice de Jesus Machado,&nbsp;Bruno Takeshi Tanaka Portela,&nbsp;Vinicius Buscioli Capistrano,&nbsp;Cléo Quaresma Dias-Júnior,&nbsp;Luiz Antonio Candido","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103063","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103063","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;The climate in the city of Manaus (AM) already suffers from the effects of anthropogenic activities, which has modified the surface energy balance leading to warming. Therefore, the main objective of this research was to determine the magnitude, daily variation, and spatial distribution of anthropogenic heat flux (&lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Q&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mi&gt;AH&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;) in the urban area of Manaus. This city is the capital of the state of Amazonas, located in the northern region of Brazil, and stands out for its unique location, surrounded by the Amazon Rainforest along the banks of the Negro river. This distinctive setting becomes the focus of the research, providing a unique opportunity to thoroughly examine the interaction and influence of urbanization. For this, the top-down inventory-based method was used to estimate the &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Q&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mi&gt;AH&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, using information from the population's fuel and electrical consumption and metabolic heat production. In the urban area of Manaus, the vehicular, stationary, and metabolic sources were responsible for 57.59%, 30.06%, and 12.35% of the total anthropogenic heat flux, referring to the diurnal cycle. Those distributed during a day reached an average of 13.04 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;, with maximum values of 17.37 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; between 18:00 and 19:00 LT and a minimum of 7.27 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; between 23:00 and 00:00 LT. In addition, the city exhibits daily behavior with three &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Q&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mi&gt;AH&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; maximums. These results indicate that the &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Q&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mi&gt;AH&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt; is directly influenced by the hourly population dynamics with higher traffic at three times: 07:00 and 08:00 LT, 14:00 and 15:00 LT, and 18:00 and 19:00 LT. For the spatial distribution of anthropogenic heat in Manaus, the annual average for the entire urban area was 12.91 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; in 2013 and 13.16 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; in 2014, resulting in an average of 13.04 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; for the two-year database presented in this study, with variations among neighborhoods. Those differences were observed in areas of high and low residential density, with average fluxes ranging between 20.36 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; and 6.38 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;, respectively. Spatial heterogeneity was evident, with higher magnitudes correlated to densely populated neighborhoods, such as Santa Luzia and Betânia, reaching values above 30 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;. These results underscore the critical influence of population density on the spatial distribution of anthropogenic heat in the city. The results found could assist planning and management of cities, especially in areas with intense urbanization, which produce greater &lt;span&gt;&lt;math&gt;&lt;msub&gt;&lt;mi&gt;Q&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mi&gt;AH&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/msub&gt;&lt;/math&gt;&lt;/span&gt;. In addition, it increases knowledge by providing more realistic information about Manaus to improve future studies on local climate, such as urban heat island behavior, energy balance closure, an","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 103063"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148635853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Building-level physical vulnerability in Europe: Exterior vs interior indicators and GIS–BIM approaches for multiple-hazard risks — A systematic review","authors":"Steffen Neuner,&nbsp;Christopher Munschauer,&nbsp;Alexander Fekete,&nbsp;Stefania Stellacci,&nbsp;Lubos Buzna,&nbsp;Daniel Chovanec,&nbsp;Katarina Holla,&nbsp;Samuel Kockar,&nbsp;Ulrich Leopold,&nbsp;Rongling Li,&nbsp;Ali Reza Yaghoubi,&nbsp;Derya Yilmaz,&nbsp;Catarina Ferreira da Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a systematic literature review of building-level physical vulnerability indicators in Europe, with a specific focus on the distinction between exterior and interior indicators and on the role of Building Information Modelling (BIM) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in assessment workflows. This study identifies existing gaps in the literature in regard to (i) the systematic integration of interior and exterior vulnerability indicators, (ii) pragmatic interoperability between GIS and BIM in assessment workflows, and (iii) more transparent weighting and validation procedures to improve transferability and comparability across different hazards and contexts. Across 26 peer-reviewed scientific publications (2000–2025), we extracted 121 indicators and analysed their use by hazard type, indicator location (interior/exterior), digital tools (GIS/BIM), weighting, and validation process. Most assessments rely on exterior indicators (e.g., material, number of floors, roof type, openings), while only three of the included studies explicitly incorporate interior indicators. GIS is widely used for data collection, mapping, and spatial analysis of vulnerable buildings. At the same time, BIM has so far been rarely leveraged despite its potential to capture interior characteristics and component-level detail needed for robust building-level assessments. The hazards most frequently addressed are landslides, floods, and dynamic flooding, whereas heatwaves – despite their high historic mortality rates in Europe – remain underrepresented. Indicator weighting approaches vary (expert-based, statistical, multi-criteria), and empirical validation is limited. These identified gaps show potential future research directions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 103042"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148635924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Numerical simulation of urbanization impact on the atmospheric boundary layer structure over Kunming, Southwest China","authors":"Lili Jin,&nbsp;Hang Li,&nbsp;Renyu Lin,&nbsp;Zhenjie Li","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding urbanization's impacts on the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is crucial across disciplines. As a major plateau lakeside city, Kunming has experienced rapid urbanization, making it ideal for studying coupled effects of urban expansion and seasonal lake-atmosphere interactions. This study used the WRF V4.3.2 model with a triple-nested grid and the Building Energy Model (BEM) to simulate five scenarios (2001–2020 urbanization levels plus a no-urbanization control) across four 2020 seasons. Results show urbanization induces nonlinear responses, increasing planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) by 218 m (48%) and 2-m air temperature (T2) by 2.5 °C (0.9%), while reducing 10-m wind speed (WS10) by 2.2 m·s⁻¹ (68%) relative to non-urban conditions. Diurnally, nighttime PBLH elevation (166%, S4-S0) and urbanization-induced thermal effects are far stronger than daytime values. Seasonally, the average PBLH and urban thermal increment (UTI) in summer-autumn are 23% and 34% higher than those in spring-winter, whereas WS10 attenuation is 3.7 times stronger in spring-winter. Vertically, UTI reaches 1900 m in summer/autumn and 1500 m in spring/winter, with wind reduction concentrated below 200 m. Lake Dian regulates these effects: acting as a cold source in summer/autumn to mitigate UTI and supplement wind momentum, and a weak heat source in spring/winter. Urbanization also weakens mountain-valley and lake-land breezes by enhancing mechanical turbulence. These findings provide a scientific basis for air pollution control, urban planning, and model parameterization in plateau lakeside regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 103061"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148635932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microclimate characterization and analysis of pedestrian zones in transportation hubs: A case study of China's hot and dry regions","authors":"Yuan Su, Yongxin Wang, Yu Han, Tiantian Peng, Sihan Liu, Wanjiang Wang, Qinglin Meng, A.D.I.L.I. Saimaiti","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102989","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102989","url":null,"abstract":"Against the backdrop of global climate change exacerbating extreme heat events in arid regions, this study investigates the pedestrian microclimatic differences between traditional and modern transportation hubs in Urumqi, a large city in China's BWk climate zone, and comprehensively examines the pedestrian outdoor thermal comfort characteristics. By integrating multi-dimensional data from in-situ monitoring, thermal perception surveys, and microclimate simulations, a dynamic assessment model based on Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was developed. The results indicate that in summer, within the transportation hub buildings in Urumqi, the neutral temperature ranges of PET and UTCI are 19.9–28.3 °C and 25.7–30.0 °C, respectively, while their acceptable temperature ranges are 13.8–33.3 °C and 18.5–31.1 °C, respectively. Meanwhile, the thermal stress grades of transportation hub spaces in Urumqi during summer were revised. In addition, with a prediction accuracy of 28.9%, UTCI was identified as the optimal index applicable to Urumqi in summer. Finally, through comparisons with different hot-arid cities, it is found that the BWk climate zone exhibits a wider threshold span and a low-temperature adaptive shift compared to the BWh climate zone and hot-humid cities, revealing the regional thermal perception differences in arid regions. This research quantifies key thermal benchmark parameters and establishes a thermal safety threshold model tailored to arid transportation spaces. It provides theoretical guidance for enhancing thermal comfort of pedestrian microclimate and optimizing the design of outdoor areas in transportation hubs, thereby strengthening their resilience and adaptability to future climate change.","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"25 1","pages":"102989"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148289557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"NDVI-based vegetation monitoring and forecasting in Madinah (2014–2050) under the Saudi Green Initiative (SGI); using Google earth engine","authors":"Muhammad Shahab, Fahad Alshehri, Huma Shakoor","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102992","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102992","url":null,"abstract":"The significance of this study lies in its demonstration that data-driven ecological monitoring can transform hyper-arid landscapes into measurable targets for restoration, providing a scientifically robust framework for combating desertification, enhancing climate resilience. While the analysis is regionally focused on the hyper-arid environment of Madinah, the integration of satellite-derived vegetation indices and cloud-based geospatial processing offers a scalable methodology applicable to similar dryland systems, thereby supporting evidence-based environmental management and sustainable policy development across arid and semi-arid regions. The study presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal assessment of vegetation dynamics in the hyper-arid region of Madinah, Saudi Arabia, utilizing the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat 8 imagery and processed via Google Earth Engine (GEE). The study employs a spectral index-based model NDVI derived from multispectral Landsat 8 imagery, utilizing a deterministic radiometric transformation and further a statistical analysis to predict the vegetation cover in 2050. Aligned with the objectives of the Saudi Green Initiative (SGI), the research evaluates the ecological outcomes of ongoing afforestation, water management innovation, and policy-driven land restoration efforts. Between 2014 and 2024, vegetative cover expanded from 94.71 km<ce:sup loc=\"post\">2</ce:sup> to 140.93 km<ce:sup loc=\"post\">2</ce:sup>, representing a 48.77% increase. Forecasting models based on this trajectory project a significant expansion to approximately 722 km<ce:sup loc=\"post\">2</ce:sup> by 2050—an overall increase of 662% from the 2014 baseline. This transformation underscores the latent ecological responsiveness of desert biomes when supported by data-driven strategies and sustained environmental interventions. Integration of spatial analysis tools such as ArcMap GIS enabled the visualization and quantification of land cover changes, revealing critical insights into the patterns, processes, and drivers of greening in arid landscapes. The findings position Madinah as a scalable model for climate-resilient ecological restoration and highlight the strategic role of interdisciplinary collaboration and remote sensing in advancing sustainable development in desert environments.","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"69 1","pages":"102992"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148289894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}