Geohealth最新文献

{"title":"Methods for Quantifying Source-Specific Air Pollution Exposure to Serve Epidemiology, Risk Assessment, and Environmental Justice","authors":"Xiaorong Shan,&nbsp;Joan A. Casey,&nbsp;Jenni A. Shearston,&nbsp;Lucas R. F. Henneman","doi":"10.1029/2024GH001188","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GH001188","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Identifying sources of air pollution exposure is crucial for addressing their health impacts and associated inequities. Researchers have developed modeling approaches to resolve source-specific exposure for application in exposure assessments, epidemiology, risk assessments, and environmental justice. We explore six source-specific air pollution exposure assessment approaches: Photochemical Grid Models (PGMs), Data-Driven Statistical Models, Dispersion Models, Reduced Complexity chemical transport Models (RCMs), Receptor Models, and Proximity Exposure Estimation Models. These models have been applied to estimate exposure from sources such as on-road vehicles, power plants, industrial sources, and wildfires. We categorize these models based on their approaches for assessing emissions and atmospheric processes (e.g., statistical or first principles), their exposure units (direct physical measures or indirect measures/scaled indices), and their temporal and spatial scales. While most of the studies we discuss are from the United States, the methodologies and models are applicable to other countries and regions. We recommend identifying the key physical processes that determine exposure from a given source and using a model that sufficiently accounts for these processes. For instance, PGMs use first principles parameterizations of atmospheric processes and provide source impacts exposure variability in concentration units, although approaches within PGMs for source attribution introduce uncertainties relative to the base model and are difficult to evaluate. Evaluation is important but difficult—since source-specific exposure is difficult to observe, the most direct evaluation methods involve comparisons with alternative models.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"8 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11536408/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142584478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Updated Smoke Exposure Estimate for Indonesian Peatland Fires Using a Network of Low-Cost PM2.5 Sensors and a Regional Air Quality Model","authors":"Ailish M. Graham,&nbsp;Dominick V. Spracklen,&nbsp;James B. McQuaid,&nbsp;Thomas E. L. Smith,&nbsp;Hanun Nurrahmawati,&nbsp;Devina Ayona,&nbsp;Hasyim Mulawarman,&nbsp;Chaidir Adam,&nbsp;Effie Papargyropoulou,&nbsp;Richard Rigby,&nbsp;Rory Padfield,&nbsp;Shofwan Choiruzzad","doi":"10.1029/2024GH001125","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GH001125","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Indonesia accounts for more than one third of the world's tropical peatlands. Much of the peatland in Indonesia has been deforested and drained, meaning it is more susceptible to fires, especially during drought and El Niño events. Fires are most common in Riau (Sumatra) and Central Kalimantan (Borneo) and lead to poor regional air quality. Measurements of air pollutant concentrations are sparse in both regions contributing to large uncertainties in both fire emissions and air quality degradation. We deployed a network of 13 low-cost PM_2.5 sensors across urban and rural locations in Central Kalimantan and measured indoor and outdoor PM_2.5 concentrations during the onset of an El Niño dry season in 2023. During the dry season (September 1st to October 31st), mean outdoor PM_2.5 concentrations were 136 μg m⁻³, with fires contributing 90 μg m⁻³ to concentrations. Median indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratios were 1.01 in rural areas, considerably higher than those reported during wildfires in other regions of the world (e.g., USA), indicating housing stock in the region provides little protection from outdoor PM_2.5. We combined WRF-Chem simulated PM_2.5 concentrations with the median fire-derived I/O ratio and questionnaire results pertaining to participants' time spent I/O to estimate 1.62 million people in Central Kalimantan were exposed to unhealthy, very unhealthy and dangerous air quality (&gt;55.4 μg m⁻³) during the dry season. Our work provides new information on the exposure of people in Central Kalimantan to smoke from fires and highlights the need for action to help reduce peatland fires.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"8 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11532237/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142576618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association Between Short-Term Exposure to Air Pollutants and Emergency Attendance for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Hong Kong: A Time-Series Study","authors":"Yun hao Li,&nbsp;Jing Tong Tan,&nbsp;Poh Hwa Ooi,&nbsp;Fang Jiang,&nbsp;Haidong Kan,&nbsp;Wai K. Leung","doi":"10.1029/2024GH001086","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GH001086","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The relationship between exposure to ambient air pollutants and emergency attendance for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains inconclusive. This study examines the association between short-term exposure to various ambient pollutants and the risk of UGIB emergency attendance. Data on daily UGIB emergency attendance, ambient pollutants, and meteorological conditions in Hong Kong were collected from 2017 to 2022. A time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model to analyze the data, considering lag days. Stratified analysis was performed based on sex, seasons, and the COVID-19 pandemic period. The burden was quantified using attributable fraction (AF) and number (AN). The study included 31,577 UGIB emergency records. Exposure to high levels of PM_2.5 significantly increased the risk of UGIB emergency attendance from lag day 3 (RR: 1.012) to day 6 (RR: 1.008). High NO₂ exposure also posed a significant risk from lag day 0 (RR: 1.026) to day 2 (RR: 1.014), and from lag day 5 (RR: 1.013) to day 7 (RR: 1.024). However, there was no association between UGIB and high O₃ levels. The attributable burden of high-concentration NO₂ exposure was higher compared to those of PM_2.5. Males and elderly individuals (≥65 years) faced a higher risk of UGIB emergencies, particularly during cold seasons. Our study suggests that both PM_2.5 and NO₂ exposure are associated with an increased risk of emergency attendance for UGIB. Ambient pollutant exposure has a stronger effect on UGIB in males and the elderly, particularly during cold seasons.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"8 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11528714/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142570244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Global Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Greenspaces on COVID-19 Infection and Mortality Rates","authors":"Bopaki Phogole,&nbsp;Kowiyou Yessoufou","doi":"10.1029/2024GH001110","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GH001110","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 resulted in rapidly rising infection rates with high associated mortality rates. In response, several epidemiological studies aimed to define ways in which the spread and severity of COVID-19 can be curbed. As a result, there is a steady increase in the evidence linking greenspaces and COVID-19 impact. However, the evidence of the benefits of greenspaces or greenness to human wellbeing in the context of COVID-19 is fragmented and sometimes contradictory. This calls for a meta-analysis of existing studies to clarify the matter. Here, we identified 621 studies across the world on the matter, which were then filtered down to 13 relevant studies for meta-analysis, covering Africa, Asia, Europe, and the USA. These studies were meta-analyzed, with the impacts of greenness on COVID-19 infection rate quantified using regression estimates whereas impacts on mortality rates were measured using mortality rate ratios. We found evidence of significant negative correlations between greenness and both COVID-19 infection and mortality rates. We further found that the impacts on COVID-19 infection and related mortality are moderated by year of publication, greenness metrics, sample size, health and political covariates. This clarification has far-reaching implications for policy development toward the establishment and management of green infrastructure for the benefit of human wellbeing.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"8 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11465030/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142401663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Wildfire Smoke on Asthma Control in California: A Microsimulation Approach","authors":"Sigal Maya,&nbsp;Neeta Thakur,&nbsp;Tarik Benmarhnia,&nbsp;Sheri D. Weiser,&nbsp;James G. Kahn","doi":"10.1029/2024GH001037","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GH001037","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wildfire smoke exposure leads to poorer health among those with pre-existing conditions such as asthma. Particulate matter in wildfire smoke can worsen asthma control, cause acute exacerbations, and increase health resource utilization (HRU) and costs. Research to date has been retrospective with few opportunities to project changes in underlying asthma control and HRU given exposure to wildfire smoke. Using a microsimulation of 5,000 Californians with asthma, we calculated changes in asthma control distribution, risk of exacerbation, and HRU and cost outcomes in the 16 weeks during and after a wildfire. The model was calibrated against empirical values on asthma control distribution and increased HRU after exposure to wildfire smoke. Without smoke exposure, 48% of the cohort exhibited complete or well control of asthma, and 8% required acute healthcare per cycle. Following two consecutive weeks of wildfire smoke, complete or well control of asthma fell to 27%, with an additional 4% HRU. This corresponds to total additional $601,250 in all-cause medical costs and eight fewer quality-adjusted life years over 16 weeks of model time. Our model found increased asthma health and cost burden due to wildfire smoke that were aligned with empirical evidence from a historic wildfire event. This study establishes a framework for a more nuanced understanding of asthma impacts from wildfire smoke that can help inform the development of public health policies to mitigate harm and promote resilience among asthma patients in the face of climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"8 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11452629/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142382059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Blowin’ in the Wind: Mapping the Dispersion of Metal(loid)s From Atacama Mining","authors":"Nicolás C. Zanetta-Colombo,&nbsp;Carlos A. Manzano,&nbsp;Dagmar Brombierstäudl,&nbsp;Zoë L. Fleming,&nbsp;Eugenia M. Gayo,&nbsp;David A. Rubinos,&nbsp;Óscar Jerez,&nbsp;Jorge Valdés,&nbsp;Manuel Prieto,&nbsp;Marcus Nüsser","doi":"10.1029/2024GH001078","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GH001078","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Atacama Desert’s naturally elevated metal(loid)s pose a unique challenge for assessing the environmental impact of mining, particularly for indigenous communities residing in these areas. This study investigates how copper mining influences the dispersion of these elements in the wind-transportable fraction (&lt;75 μm) of surface sediments across an 80 km radius. We employed a multi-pronged approach, utilizing spatial modeling to map element distributions, exponential decay analysis to quantify concentration decline with distance, regime shift modeling to identify dispersion pattern variations, and pollution assessment to evaluate impact. Our results reveal significant mining-driven increases in surface concentrations of copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), and arsenic (As). Notably, within the first 20 km, concentrations peaked at 1,016 mg kg⁻¹ for Cu, 31 mg kg⁻¹ for Mo, and a remarkable 165 mg kg⁻¹ for As. Cu and Mo displayed significant dispersion, extending up to 50 km from the source. However, As exhibited the most extensive reach, traveling up to 70 km downwind, highlighting the far-reaching ecological footprint of mining operations. Mineralogical analyses corroborated these findings, identifying mining-related minerals in surface sediments far beyond the immediate mining area. Although pollution indices based on the proposed Local Geochemical Background reveal significant contamination across the study area, establishing accurate pre-industrial baseline values is essential for a more reliable assessment. This study challenges the concept of “natural pollution” by demonstrating that human activities exacerbate baseline metal(loid)s levels. Expanding monitoring protocols is imperative to comprehensively assess the combined effects of multiple emission sources, including mining and natural processes, in safeguarding environmental and human health for future generations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"8 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11443516/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142362358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association Between Extreme Heat and Outpatient Visits for Mental Disorders: A Time-Series Analysis in Guangzhou, China","authors":"Hui Zhang,&nbsp;Xuezhu Li,&nbsp;Siyue Wang,&nbsp;Tao Wu,&nbsp;Xinyi Yang,&nbsp;Ningfeng Wang,&nbsp;Lifeng Huang,&nbsp;Zhilang Feng,&nbsp;Zitong He,&nbsp;Qiong Wang,&nbsp;Li Ling,&nbsp;Wensu Zhou","doi":"10.1029/2024GH001165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GH001165","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Previous evidence on heatwaves’ impact on mental health outpatient visits is limited, especially uncertainty on how different heatwave definitions affect this relationship. In this time-series study, we assessed the association between heatwaves and outpatient visits for mental disorders in Guangzhou, China. Daily outpatient visits for mental disorders and its specific categories (schizophrenia, mood, and neurotic disorders) were sourced from the Urban Resident-based Basic Medical Insurance (URBMI) and the Urban Employee-based Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) claims databases in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2014. The study employed nine heatwave definitions, based on combinations of three daily mean temperature thresholds (90th, 92.5th, and 95th percentiles) and durations (2, 3, and 4 days). Using quasi-Poisson generalized linear models (GLMs), we estimated the risks (at lag 0 day) and cumulative effects (lag 0–10 days) of heatwaves on mental disorder outpatient visits. Age, gender, types of medical insurance were considered as potential effect modifiers. We observed a positive association between heatwaves and increased total outpatient visits for mental disorders, both at lag 0 day and during lag 0–10 days. The impact of heatwave was significant at lag 0 day for schizophrenia, mood and neurotic disorders visits, it remained significant for neurotic and mood disorders visits during lag 0–10 days. Heatwave durations lasting more than 4 days were associated with higher relative risks of mental disorders at lag 0 day. Older adults had relatively higher effect estimations than younger individuals. This research highlights the effects of extreme heat on mental health.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"8 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024GH001165","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142360009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A New, Zero-Iteration Analytic Implementation of Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature: Development, Validation, and Comparison With Other Methods","authors":"Qinqin Kong,&nbsp;Matthew Huber","doi":"10.1029/2024GH001068","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GH001068","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT)—a standard measure for workplace heat stress regulation—incorporates the complex, nonlinear interaction among temperature, humidity, wind and radiation. This complexity requires WBGT to be calculated iteratively following the recommended approach developed by Liljegren and colleagues. The need for iteration has limited the wide application of Liljegren's approach, and stimulated various simplified WBGT approximations that do not require iteration but are potentially seriously biased. By carefully examining the self-nonlinearities in Liljegren's model, we develop a zero-iteration analytic approximation of WBGT while maintaining sufficient accuracy and the physical basis of the original model. The new approximation slightly deviates from Liljegren's full model—by less than 1°C in 99% cases over 93% of global land area. The annual mean and 75%–99% percentiles of WBGT are also well represented with biases within <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>±</mo>\u0000 <mn>0.5</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $pm 0.5$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>°C globally. This approximation is clearly more accurate than other commonly used WBGT approximations. Physical intuition can be developed on the processes controlling WBGT variations from an energy balance perspective. This may provide a basis for applying WBGT to understanding the physical control of heat stress.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"8 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11439757/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142356397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes in Healthcare Utilization After the 2022 Seoul Metropolitan Flood: Applying a Generalized Synthetic Control Approach","authors":"Marnpyung Jang,&nbsp;Jaeyoung Yoon,&nbsp;Yeseul Yun,&nbsp;Jaiyong Kim,&nbsp;Hoyeon Jang,&nbsp;Tarik Benmarhnia,&nbsp;Changwoo Han","doi":"10.1029/2024GH001084","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GH001084","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Floods can have adverse health effects and impose a burden on healthcare systems. However, the potential consequences of floods on specific medical causes in densely populated metropolitan cities has not been characterized yet. Therefore, we evaluate the changes in healthcare utilization patterns after the 2022 Seoul flood using nationwide health insurance data. Based on the flood inundation map, districts within the flooded municipalities of Seoul were classified as severe-(<i>n</i> = 12), mild-(<i>n</i> = 22), or non-(<i>n</i> = 38) flood-affected districts. Capitalizing on the timing of the flood as a natural experiment, a generalized synthetic control method was applied to estimate changes in the number of disease-specific hospital visits in flood-affected districts during 2 weeks after the flood. We found excess hospital visits for external injuries (20.2 visits, 95% CI: −6.0, 45.2) and fewer visits for pregnancy and puerperium (−3.0 visits, 95% CI: −5.1, −0.5) in residents of flooded districts. When comparing severe- and non-flood districts, the increase in hospital visits for external injuries (56.2 visits, 95% CI: 17.2, 93.2) and a decrease in hospital visits related to pregnancy and puerperium (−5.3 visits, 95% CI: −8.4, −1.6) were prominent in residents living in severe-flood affected districts. Disease specific analysis showed an increase in hospital visits for injuries to the elbow and forearm, ankle and foot injuries, and chronic lower respiratory diseases in severe-flood-affected districts. However, these impacts were not observed when comparing the mild- and non-flood-affected districts. Our study suggests an immediate and substantial change in medical demand following flood exposure, highlighting the importance of public health responses after flood events.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"8 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11437896/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142356398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temperature-Driven Dengue Transmission in a Changing Climate: Patterns, Trends, and Future Projections","authors":"Fengliu Feng,&nbsp;Yuxia Ma,&nbsp;Pengpeng Qin,&nbsp;Yuhan Zhao,&nbsp;Zongrui Liu,&nbsp;Wanci Wang,&nbsp;Bowen Cheng","doi":"10.1029/2024GH001059","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GH001059","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Dengue is a rapidly spreading mosquito-borne infectious disease that is sensitive to climate factors and poses a major public health concern worldwide. We analyzed dengue incidence trends and the relationship between annual mean minimum temperatures (AMMTs) and dengue incidence rates from 1990 to 2019 in 122 countries using the Global Burden of Disease and TerraClimate data sets. We also projected global dengue incidence rates under different carbon emission scenarios using temperature data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data set. Our results reveal a significant increase in global dengue cases from 1990 to 2019 and a positive correlation between temperature and dengue incidence. The association between AMMT and dengue incidence strengthened at temperatures exceeding 21°C. Central and eastern sub-Saharan Africa, as well as Oceania, were identified as the regions most sensitive to dengue; males and individuals aged 15–19 or 70–84 years were the most susceptible to dengue under rising temperatures. Our projections suggest that global dengue incidence will substantially increase by 2050 and 2100. By 2100, regions including Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, the southern United States, southern China, and island countries in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are projected to become year-round dengue-endemic under a high-emission climate scenario. Our findings underscore the importance of implementing effective measures to mitigate the impact of climate change on dengue transmission. Identifying high-risk areas and susceptible populations, along with understanding the projected expansion of dengue-endemic regions, will provide valuable guidance for targeted interventions to address this growing global health challenge in the face of changing climatic conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"8 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11436633/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142356399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}