Geohealth最新文献

{"title":"Impact of Extreme Heat on Emergency Department Admissions for Childhood and Adult Asthma: An Evaluation of Earth Observations and Heat Wave Definitions.","authors":"B Corpuz, E Scott, B F Zaitchik, S Zeger, D Waugh, A Balasubramanian, J Madrigano, K Koehler, R Koehl, M McCormack","doi":"10.1029/2025GH001501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GH001501","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Extreme heat has been associated with adverse health outcomes, yet its impact on asthma exacerbations remains understudied. This is, in part, due to data limitations: research that relies on weather station records and aggregated health statistics cannot resolve fine-scale differences in heat impacts. This study investigates the association between heat wave definitions and summertime asthma-related emergency department visits in Baltimore, Maryland from 2016 to 2022, including 819 adult and 695 pediatric exacerbations. Using geocoded electronic health records and air temperature measurements at several spatial resolutions, we applied a case-crossover design with conditional logistic regressions at the census block group and tract levels. We found strong associations between asthma exacerbations and nighttime heat wave definitions based on relative thresholds of minimum temperatures when census block group or tract level temperature estimates were used. These relationships were significant for both age groups and showed elevated risks in socially vulnerable areas. In contrast, heat wave definitions derived from the city's primary National Weather Service synoptic weather station show associations between asthma and daytime heat extremes, suggesting that the character of the heat hazard depends on the scale at which it is defined. The extreme heat event definition used by Baltimore City's Code Red system showed no significant association with exacerbations. These findings highlight the importance of data resolution in shaping health inferences related to extreme heat in urban environments. Further, this study demonstrates that, regardless of spatial scale, extreme heat is associated with asthma exacerbations in both age groups.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"10 ","pages":"e2025GH001501"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13147955/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147844547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Method to Estimate Health Effects Based on Error-Prone Simulated Environmental Exposure: An Application to a Multi-Country Study on Birthweight and Fine Particulate Matter.","authors":"Jinting Guo, Ning Kang, Jianyu Deng, Minghao Qiu, Tao Xue","doi":"10.1029/2025GH001789","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GH001789","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Earth System Models provide spatiotemporally continuous environmental exposure data but remain underused in environmental epidemiology because of uncertainty from measurement errors. We developed a novel latent-variable approach to correct for measurement error characterized by spatiotemporal error covariance, which was derived from comparisons between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) monthly fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) simulations and station-based monitoring data from 5,661 global sites. To demonstrate the utility of the framework, we associated these exposures to birthweight records from 132 Demographic and Health Surveys. The results showed variable correlations between the models and the observations (<i>r</i> = 0.40-0.68) as well as widely varying effect estimates across Earth System Models, from a 0.01 g (95% confidence interval: -0.85-0.87) reduction to a 15.11 g (12.69-17.54) reduction in birthweight per 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5. After correcting measurement error, the optimal estimate indicated a more precise and consistent reduction of 3.34 g (2.57-4.11) in birthweight per 10 μg/m³. These findings demonstrate that the negative association between PM_2.5 exposure and birthweight is robust to different levels of measurement error embedded in CMIP6-based exposures, and that correction for measurement error in environmental epidemiology can help avoid misestimating the effect by reducing bias and improving consistency.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"10 ","pages":"e2025GH001789"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13130145/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147822548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Racial Disparities in Weather-Related Mortality in Virginia.","authors":"Pamela B DeGuzman, Wendy M Novicoff, Gabriel Ramos, Melanie M Pane, Murphy C Johnson, Patrick C Roney, Hannah V Leigh, William Basener, Amber L Curran, Bryan DeMarcy, Jungyun Jang, Christian Schroeder, Robert E Davis","doi":"10.1029/2025GH001495","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GH001495","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>To examine racial disparities in weather-related mortality in Virginia from 2005 to 2020. An ecological descriptive study using daily mortality data from the Virginia Department of Health and weather data from the National Climatic Data Center. Generalized additive models and distributed lag nonlinear models were used to estimate the relative risk of mortality as the primary endpoint associated with temperature extremes over a 21-day lag period, stratified by race. Black residents of the state had a higher risk of dying at both high and low temperatures compared to white residents; however, the risk was more profound with low temperatures. On the coldest days, the mortality risk for the Black population was more than three times that of the white population. Notably, the impact of cold on the Black population extended through lag day 15, while for white people, the impact only lasted through lag day 5. Heat-related mortality risk for Black individuals also exceeded that for white individuals, but only when the minimum temperature exceeded 20°C. Racial disparities exist in weather-related mortality in Virginia, with the Black population experiencing a disproportionately higher risk of death as well as poorer health outcomes, especially during extreme cold weather events. Policymakers should consider developing and evaluating policies that protect vulnerable communities when they are subject to weather extremes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"10 4","pages":"e2025GH001495"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13078135/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147692517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"West Nile Virus Transmission Suitability Modeling for Culex pipiens via Temperature and Humidity","authors":"H. M. Jones,&nbsp;D. M. Brett-Major,&nbsp;J. R. Fauver,&nbsp;Y. Gwon,&nbsp;J. E. Bell","doi":"10.1029/2025GH001665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GH001665","url":null,"abstract":"<p>West Nile Virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the United States, yet predicting its transmission remains a significant challenge for public health officials. Many studies use correlative statistical models to predict disease cases using temperature and humidity, but accessible mechanistic approaches that simulate mosquito behavior traits can capture more of the transmission process. This study adapts an existing R-language package, the Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability Estimator (MVSE), which was created to model <i>Aedes aegypti</i> mosquito transmission of dengue, and tunes it to <i>Culex pipiens</i> transmission of WNV. Equations for mortality, biting rate, and incubation period were updated, and Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) was used in place of Relative Humidity to better approximate dehydration stress on mosquitos. Our <i>Culex</i>-specific customizations of the model improved correlations with annual disease cases at the county level, particularly in locations with higher <i>Culex pipiens</i> habitat suitability. For West Nile Neuroinvasive Disease (WNND), the correlation between MVSE performance (Spearman's rho for WNND incidence and our custom <i>Index</i> P) and probability of <i>Culex pipiens</i> presence was 0.48 (<i>p</i> = 0.03). These results demonstrate that incorporating trait sensitivity to temperature and VPD results in species-specific models that may be effective in informing WNV disease prevention efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"10 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GH001665","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing Near-Source Health and Equity Impacts of Liquefied Natural Gas Terminals","authors":"Xinran Wu,&nbsp;Tracey Holloway,&nbsp;Drashti Amin,&nbsp;Paul Meier,&nbsp;Vijay S. Limaye,&nbsp;Ade Samuel","doi":"10.1029/2025GH001609","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GH001609","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Growing global demand for natural gas has driven the expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals, which emit pollutants that can pose health risks to nearby communities. This study presents a novel modeling framework using the AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD) to assess near-source nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) exposure, health impacts, and equity implications at the block-group level. We apply this methodology to four LNG export terminals in the United States, simulating NO₂ concentrations within a 50 km radius. Results show that LNG terminals substantially contribute to near-source air pollution, with simulated 1-hr maximum NO₂ concentrations reaching up to 16% of the EPA's National Ambient Air Quality Standard (100 ppb). Site-specific maximum concentrations were 15.7 ppb (Site A), 1.6 ppb (B), 10.7 ppb (C), and 0.3 ppb (D). Comparing NO₂ concentrations with demographic patterns, Sites A and D showed higher concentrations, higher proportions of People of Color and low-income populations, and greater health burdens in communities closer to the LNG facilities, indicating potential disproportionate impacts. The other sites showed weak or no spatial inequity patterns. Estimated annual NO₂-attributable all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 people were 8.2 (A), 0.6 (B), 2.2 (C), and 0.1 (D); annual NO₂-attributable pediatric asthma rates per 100,000 children were 75.5 (A), 6.2 (B), 21.8 (C), and 1.1 (D). This study demonstrates how regulatory dispersion models like AERMOD can be adapted to evaluate near-source health and equity impacts of industrial emissions and offers a transferable methodology for similar analyses across other high-emitting facilities.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"10 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GH001609","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association Between Observed Climate Change and Cardiovascular Disease in the United States","authors":"R. Yeager,&nbsp;C. Tuholske,&nbsp;M. H. E. M. Browning,&nbsp;C. Mattingly,&nbsp;S. Olmsted,&nbsp;A. Ossola,&nbsp;D. H. Locke","doi":"10.1029/2025GH001588","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GH001588","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is affecting nearly all social and environmental determinants of health. However, the extent of resulting cumulative impacts on cardiovascular and other noncommunicable diseases is not known. To address this gap and inform future research, we conducted an ecological evaluation of associations between 14 long-term climate anomaly metrics and prevalence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in the United States. We calculated long-term anomaly metrics as the difference between their respective 1970–1979 baseline mean and 2013–2022 modern mean values. With fitted random effects regression analysis, we evaluated associations between each anomaly metric, individually and collectively, and census tract-level 2020–2022 mean prevalence of CHD and stroke. In adjusted models with all noncollinear anomaly metrics, we found a net association of all metrics with 0.59% higher CHD prevalence and 0.88% higher stroke prevalence (9.8% and 27.9% relative prevalence, respectively). We found the largest significant effect for location-based annual mean air temperature anomaly, but smaller significant associations with changes in humidity, rainfall, sunlight, wind, and atmospheric pressure anomalies. We observed similar associations between mean summer and daytime heat index anomalies, which were larger than heat waves and temperature variability. While our ecological analysis cannot evaluate causal effects of climate change on cardiovascular disease, our findings align with previous research and may reflect the potential nature and extent of cumulative “slow burn” chronic health impacts of climate change among developed countries. These findings may inform precautionary policy considerations regarding the potentially large and permanent impacts of climate policies on global health.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"10 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GH001588","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147683750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Campylobacter Infection and Projected Habitat Suitability of Dominant Campylobacter Species in Eastern Ethiopia","authors":"Xiaolong Li,&nbsp;Amanda E. Ojeda,&nbsp;Loic Deblais,&nbsp;Bahar Mummed Hassen,&nbsp;Mussie Bhrane,&nbsp;Gireesh Rajashekara,&nbsp;Song Liang,&nbsp;Jemal Yousuf Hassen,&nbsp;Sarah L. McKune,&nbsp;Arie H. Havelaar,&nbsp;Jason K. Blackburn,&nbsp;CAGED Research Team","doi":"10.1029/2024GH001146","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2024GH001146","url":null,"abstract":"<p><i>Campylobacter</i> is the most common bacterial cause of foodborne illness globally. Both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections with <i>Campylobacter</i> species have been associated with growth faltering of children in low-resource settings, while previous prevalence studies primarily focused on diarrheal disease in children. Here, we leverage the data collected from the <i>Campylobacter</i> Genomics and Environmental Enteric Dysfunction (CAGED) project to characterize the spatial patterns of <i>Campylobacter</i> infections among infants with or without diarrhea in rural Eastern Ethiopia. Randomly enrolled infants (<i>n</i> = 106) were followed from birth to around 13 months, with fecal samples collected monthly. Livestock feces, drinking water, and soil samples were collected biannually. <i>Campylobacter</i> was detected and quantified using genus-specific PCR and species-specific PCR for four species. We employed a spatial filtering approach using genus-specific data to generate smoothed prevalence surfaces by month and age group. Temporally, an upward trend of prevalence was observed as the children grew older. Spatially, high-prevalence areas were distributed across the whole study area. To relate disease risk to environmental conditions, we used ecological niche modeling with MaxEnt to estimate habitat suitability of the genus <i>Campylobacter</i> and two dominant species identified by PCR results. Elevation, vegetation index, and slope were the most important contributors, and all distribution models suggested areas in the north were more likely to support the pathogen. These results inform <i>Campylobacter</i> infection patterns and identify target areas with higher risk of <i>Campylobacter</i> in low-resource settings. This further contributes to developing effective intervention strategies in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"10 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13066913/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147677834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"One Health Surveillance of Antimicrobial Resistance in the Eastern Mediterranean: The Blackchin Guitarfish as a Case Study","authors":"J. Lellouche,&nbsp;H. Di Castro,&nbsp;N. Maschiah,&nbsp;S. Paikin,&nbsp;M. Zvereva,&nbsp;D. Tchernov,&nbsp;A. Scheinin,&nbsp;E. Cohen,&nbsp;D. Meron","doi":"10.1029/2025GH001680","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GH001680","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a global One Health challenge, linking human, animal, and environmental health. Marine environments and organisms are increasingly recognized as reservoirs of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria and mobile genetic elements. This study investigates the prevalence of antibiotic non-susceptible bacteria and resistance genes in juvenile <i>Glaucostegus cemiculus</i> blackchin guitarfish along the Israeli Mediterranean coast. Between 2023 and 2024, 19 specimens were sampled from Ma'agan Michael, Acer, and Evtach. Swabs from skin, gills, and mouth were cultured on selective and chromogenic media, followed by identification using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization—time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF MS) and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Resistance genes were screened by quantitative PCR (qPCR), with CTX-M beta-lactamases (<i>bla</i>_CTX-M) variants sequenced and phylogenetically analyzed. A total of 162 bacterial isolates were obtained, of which 54% were identified to 26 species across eight families, primarily Staphylococcaceae (39%) and Bacillaceae (36%). Several clinically relevant pathogens were detected, including <i>Staphylococcus aureus</i>, <i>Pseudomonas spp</i>., and <i>Escherichia coli</i>. Reduced susceptibilities were observed in 31 isolates from 10 specimens, with multidrug resistance identified in <i>P</i>. <i>mendocina</i>, <i>P</i>. <i>stutzeri</i>, and <i>E</i>. <i>coli</i>. Skin samples yielded the highest proportion of resistant isolates. Importantly, the <i>bla</i>_CTX-M-185 extended-spectrum β-lactamase gene was detected in six individuals, with sequences closely related to those of human-associated strains, suggesting anthropogenic origins. These findings demonstrate that juvenile guitarfish harbor clinically significant resistant bacteria and genes, highlighting the marine environment as a potential reservoir of AMR. Integrating endangered species into AMR surveillance highlights the importance of for environmental monitoring and conservation strategies within a One Health framework.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"10 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13068451/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147677826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial Distribution of Organochlorine Pesticide Serum Concentrations in Mexican Children and Adolescents Living in and Out the Polluted Atoyac Watershed Basin","authors":"Sailing Jane Tak Tang,&nbsp;Rodrigo Ugalde-Resano,&nbsp;Ángel Mérida-Ortega,&nbsp;Paola Rodriguez-Montoyo,&nbsp;Adamarie Márquez-Acevedo,&nbsp;Mariano E. Cebrián,&nbsp;Juan C. Núñez-Enríquez,&nbsp;Janet Flores-Lujano,&nbsp;Lizbeth López-Carillo","doi":"10.1029/2025GH001711","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GH001711","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Atoyac river basin is one of the most polluted watershed basins in Mexico. Recent studies have reported the presence of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in this highly urbanized region through environmental monitoring, raising concerns about potential health risks, particularly for children and adolescents. We still lack information about its human exposure through biological samples that represent a more realistic measure of OCPs body burden. To evaluate, we compared the serum concentrations of OCPs in children and adolescents living within and outside the Atoyac watershed basin. We included 428 individuals under 20 years old who participated as controls in a population-based study conducted in three central-southern Mexican states (2021–2024). We collected sociodemographic characteristics through face-to-face interviews and obtained serum samples in which we quantified 24 OCPs by gas chromatography. To georeference, we classified the participants as living within or outside the Atoyac basin and compared their respective serum concentrations for those OCPs detected over 10% of samples. We found two heterogeneous spatial distribution patterns of OCPs serum concentrations. HCB, dieldrin, oxychlordane, and endosulfan sulfate were higher in the Atoyac basin, with the two formers being statistically significant. In contrast, <i>p</i>,<i>p</i>′-DDE was significantly higher outside the Atoyac basin. The two patterns of exposure between the two regions emphasized one pattern driven by industry and agriculture, and the second driven by vector-borne disease control. It reinforces the need for regulation and increased monitoring in the Atoyac river basin to provide information about adverse health effects in children and adolescents.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"10 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13064877/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147677955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting Karenia brevis Induced Respiratory Irritation at Individual Southwest Florida Beaches Using Cell Abundances Plus Wind Direction and Speed","authors":"K. M. Collins,&nbsp;A. G. Hounshell,&nbsp;B. Kirkpatrick,&nbsp;A. Cook,&nbsp;K. A. Hubbard,&nbsp;M. C. Tomlinson,&nbsp;R. P. Stumpf","doi":"10.1029/2025GH001664","DOIUrl":"10.1029/2025GH001664","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Nearly annually, blooms of the dinoflagellate <i>Karenia brevis</i> form along the southwest Florida coast leading to a variety of negative impacts, including respiratory irritation (RI) in humans. To limit these impacts, NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) developed a RI model to provide beach-goers with a category-based estimate of RI risk at individual beaches along Florida's Gulf and Atlantic coasts. The RI model is based on: (a) <i>K. brevis</i> cell counts collected at individual beaches; (b) high resolution wind direction and speed forecasts and observations; and (c) point-based beach shoreline orientation used to designate onshore and offshore winds. To test the model logic, an analysis of modeled RI was compared to same-day RI reports, based on the frequency of coughs at individual beaches from the Beach Conditions Reporting System (BCRS). Overall, the model proved to be 88% accurate when <i>K. brevis</i> was present along the southwest Florida coastline from 2006 to 2022. In addition, validation efforts confirmed model assumptions, including: (a) reports of higher RI correlate with higher <i>K. brevis</i> cell abundances; and (b) when cells are present, onshore winds lead to a higher risk of RI. However, individual model categories (“low,” “moderate”) were less robust. Furthermore, BCRS was not a direct measure of toxic aerosol presence, so some coughing (modeled false negatives) may result from other environmental factors. Together, results suggest the RI model accurately predicts “very low” and “high” risk, but that additional research is needed to better capture environmental conditions when RI is “low” or “moderate.”</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"10 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13062942/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147677852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}