Extreme Drought Events (1585–1590) and Spatiotemporal Patterns of Infectious Diseases Outbreaks in Ming Dynasty China

IF 4.3 2区医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Geohealth Pub Date : 2025-06-22 DOI:10.1029/2025GH001386

Jingyi Xin, Zhaobin Sun, Juan He, Xiaoyi Hang, Yuxin Zhao, Shuwen Zhang, Yu Hao

{"title":"Extreme Drought Events (1585–1590) and Spatiotemporal Patterns of Infectious Diseases Outbreaks in Ming Dynasty China","authors":"Jingyi Xin, Zhaobin Sun, Juan He, Xiaoyi Hang, Yuxin Zhao, Shuwen Zhang, Yu Hao","doi":"10.1029/2025GH001386","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Droughts, historically recognized as drivers of societal transformation, have been implicated in the emergence of infectious diseases. While existing research has concentrated on the impact of climate change on infectious diseases outbreaks in modern, industrialized, and urban settings, there is a dearth of epidemiological evidence regarding the historical interplay between drought and disease. Here, we analyze the 1585–1590 extreme drought in Ming Dynasty China to investigate the concurrent development of drought and infectious diseases, as well as the temporal and spatial effects of drought on disease outbreaks. The findings reveal a positive correlation between drought and infectious diseases in both temporal and spatial dimensions, with famine identified as a critical intermediate factor. Drought's influence on famine and disease is both immediate and delayed, with the most significant effects occurring within the same year. Additionally, a north-to-south pattern in the occurrence of drought and infectious diseases is observed, with northern droughts more likely to precipitate disease outbreaks. These insights offer valuable perspectives for future strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48618,"journal":{"name":"Geohealth","volume":"9 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GH001386","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geohealth","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GH001386","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Droughts, historically recognized as drivers of societal transformation, have been implicated in the emergence of infectious diseases. While existing research has concentrated on the impact of climate change on infectious diseases outbreaks in modern, industrialized, and urban settings, there is a dearth of epidemiological evidence regarding the historical interplay between drought and disease. Here, we analyze the 1585–1590 extreme drought in Ming Dynasty China to investigate the concurrent development of drought and infectious diseases, as well as the temporal and spatial effects of drought on disease outbreaks. The findings reveal a positive correlation between drought and infectious diseases in both temporal and spatial dimensions, with famine identified as a critical intermediate factor. Drought's influence on famine and disease is both immediate and delayed, with the most significant effects occurring within the same year. Additionally, a north-to-south pattern in the occurrence of drought and infectious diseases is observed, with northern droughts more likely to precipitate disease outbreaks. These insights offer valuable perspectives for future strategies.

查看原文本刊更多论文

中国明代极端干旱事件（1585-1590）与传染病暴发的时空格局

干旱历来被认为是推动社会变革的因素，也与传染病的出现有关。虽然现有的研究集中在气候变化对现代、工业化和城市环境中传染病爆发的影响，但关于干旱和疾病之间的历史相互作用，缺乏流行病学证据。本文以1585-1590年中国明代极端干旱为研究对象，探讨了干旱与传染病的同步发展，以及干旱对疾病暴发的时空影响。研究结果表明，干旱和传染病在时间和空间上都存在正相关关系，饥荒被确定为一个关键的中间因素。干旱对饥荒和疾病的影响既有直接的，也有延迟的，最严重的影响发生在同一年。此外，干旱和传染病的发生呈现从北到南的格局，北方的干旱更容易引发疾病暴发。这些见解为未来的战略提供了有价值的视角。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Geohealth Environmental Science-Pollution

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

6.20%

发文量

124

审稿时长

19 weeks

期刊介绍： GeoHealth will publish original research, reviews, policy discussions, and commentaries that cover the growing science on the interface among the Earth, atmospheric, oceans and environmental sciences, ecology, and the agricultural and health sciences. The journal will cover a wide variety of global and local issues including the impacts of climate change on human, agricultural, and ecosystem health, air and water pollution, environmental persistence of herbicides and pesticides, radiation and health, geomedicine, and the health effects of disasters. Many of these topics and others are of critical importance in the developing world and all require bringing together leading research across multiple disciplines.