Microbial Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Quantitative modeling of school cafeteria share tables predicts reduced food waste and manageable norovirus-related food safety risk","authors":"Gustavo A. Reyes ,&nbsp;Jessica Zagorsky ,&nbsp;Yawei Lin ,&nbsp;Melissa Pflugh Prescott ,&nbsp;Matthew J. Stasiewicz","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100229","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100229","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Share tables (ST) allow students to share unwanted food items with other students in school cafeterias, making them a possible method to reduce food waste and insecurity. This study assesses potential food safety risks and food security benefits of a ST system, to assess if future work on STs is warranted. But food safety concerns from stakeholders hinder ST implementation. A quantitative microbial risk assessment was developed to (i) predict food safety risk (specifically norovirus transmission via apples) associated with the implementation of STs in school cafeterias, (ii) identify effective mitigation strategies to prevent illness, and (iii) screen for potential food security benefits. To estimate the impact and efficacy of mitigation strategies, illness prevalence was compared between 13 different what-if scenarios. Results show that STs modestly increase the mean illness prevalence from 1.5% (2.5–97.5th percentile: 0.52–2.7%) to 1.6% (2.5–97.5th percentile: 0.67–2.8%), a 6.8% increase in illness prevalence. Mitigation strategies that focus on managing incoming norovirus loads are predicted to be most effective. Specifically, efficient student handwashing and hand sanitizing reduced the illness prevalence in a ST system to 43.6 and 41.9%, respectively. Other mitigation strategies, such as washing and wrapping fruit, are predicted to be less effective. Other results show that STs have the potential to reduce food waste of fruit by 54% (2.5–97.5th percentile: 44–61%), increase consumption by 21% (2.5–97.5th percentile: 32–11%), and decrease item utilization by 6.9% (2.5–97.5th percentile: 1.5–13%), compared to the baseline traditional cafeteria scenario. This study suggests that share tables have potential to safely reduce food waste. While share tables are predicted to slightly increase the illness prevalence, that risk is manageable by applying mitigation strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100229"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49511660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Strain wars 3: Differences in infectivity and pathogenicity between Delta and Omicron strains of SARS-CoV-2 can be explained by thermodynamic and kinetic parameters of binding and growth","authors":"Marko Popovic","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100217","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100217","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, for the first time, empirical formulas have been reported of the Delta and Omicron strains of SARS-CoV-2. The empirical formula of the Delta strain entire virion was found to be CH_1.6383O_0.2844N_0.2294P_0.0064S_0.0042, while its nucleocapsid has the formula CH_1.5692O_0.3431N_0.3106P_0.0060S_0.0043. The empirical formula of the Omicron strain entire virion was found to be CH_1.6404O_0.2842N_0.2299P_0.0064S_0.0038, while its nucleocapsid has the formula CH_1.5734O_0.3442N_0.3122P_0.0060S_0.0033. Based on the empirical formulas, standard thermodynamic properties of formation and growth have been calculated and reported for the Delta and Omicron strains. Moreover, standard thermodynamic properties of binding have been reported for Wild type (Hu-1), Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron strains. For all the strains, binding phenomenological coefficients and antigen-receptor (SGP-ACE2) binding rates have been determined and compared, which are proportional to infectivity. The results show that the binding rate of the Omicron strain is between 1.5 and 2.5 times greater than that of the Delta strain. The Omicron strain is characterized by a greater infectivity, based on the epidemiological data available in the literature. The increased infectivity was explained in this paper using Gibbs energy of binding. However, no indications exist for decreased pathogenicity of the Omicron strain. Pathogenicity is proportional to the virus multiplication rate, while Gibbs energies of multiplication are very similar for the Delta and Omicron strains. Thus, multiplication rate and pathogenicity are similar for the Delta and Omicron strains. The lower number of severe cases caused by the Omicron strain can be explained by increased number of immunized people. Immunization does not influence the possibility of occurrence of infection, but influences the rate of immune response, which is much more efficient in immunized people. This leads to prevention of more severe Omicron infection cases.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100217"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352352222000172/pdfft?md5=fa427a9a9581775dac5b2ec12eace7d8&pid=1-s2.0-S2352352222000172-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48305401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk of Monkeypox virus (MPXV) transmission through the handling and consumption of food","authors":"Estelle Chaix ,&nbsp;Mickaël Boni ,&nbsp;Laurent Guillier ,&nbsp;Stéphane Bertagnoli ,&nbsp;Alexandra Mailles ,&nbsp;Catherine Collignon ,&nbsp;Pauline Kooh ,&nbsp;Olivier Ferraris ,&nbsp;Sandra Martin-Latil ,&nbsp;Jean-Claude Manuguerra ,&nbsp;Nadia Haddad","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100237","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100237","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Monkeypox (MPX) is a zoonotic infectious disease caused by <em>Monkeypox virus</em> (MPXV), an enveloped DNA virus belonging to the <em>Poxviridae</em> family and the <em>Orthopoxvirus</em> genus. Since early May 2022, a growing number of human cases of Monkeypox have been reported in non-endemic countries, with no history of contact with animals imported from endemic and enzootic areas, or travel to an area where the virus usually circulated before May 2022. This qualitative risk assessment aimed to investigate the probability that MPXV transmission occurs through food during its handling and consumption. The risk assessment used “top-down” (based on epidemiological data) and “bottom-up” (following the agent through the food chain to assess the risk of foodborne transmission to human) approaches, which were combined. The “top-down” approach first concluded that bushmeat was the only food suspected as a source of contamination in recorded cases of MPXV, by contact or ingestion. The “bottom-up” approach then evaluated the chain of events required for a human to become ill after handling or consuming food. This approach involves several conditions: (i) the food must be contaminated with MPXV (naturally, by an infected handler or after contact with a contaminated surface); (ii) the food must contain viable virus when it reaches the handler or consumer; (iii) the person must be exposed to the virus and; (iv) the person must be infected after exposure. Throughout the risk assessment, some data gaps were identified and highlighted. The conclusions of the top-down and bottom-up approaches are consistent and suggest that the risk of transmission of MPXV through food is hypothetical and that such an occurrence was never reported. In case of contamination, cooking (<em>e.g.,</em> 12 min at 70°C) could be considered effective in inactivating <em>Poxviridae</em> in foods. Recommendations for risk management are proposed. To our knowledge, this is the first risk assessment performed on foodborne transmission of MPXV.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100237"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9595349/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9952544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis about Salmonella spp. prevalence on raw chicken meat","authors":"Claudia Titze Hessel ,&nbsp;Eduardo de Freitas Costa ,&nbsp;Roberta Taufer Boff ,&nbsp;João Pedro Pessoa ,&nbsp;Eduardo Cesar Tondo","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100205","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100205","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Salmonellosis involving chicken meat is one of the most frequent foodborne diseases registered worldwide. Many studies report the prevalence of <em>Salmonella</em> spp. on chicken meat; however, data are limited or variable. To perform stochastic Quantitative Microbial Risk Analysis, it is essential to input reliable data to estimate the risks, and the Bayesian meta-analysis model allows incorporating the uncertainty of the data into parameters which increases the robustness of the model. In this manuscript, we conduct a systematic review and a logit-normal hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis model to assess the posterior distribution of <em>Salmonella</em> spp. prevalence of raw chicken meat. The posterior distribution of <em>Salmonella</em> spp. was reported according to carcass processing (whole carcass or cuts); cold status (fresh meat or frozen); place of sampling (retail or slaughterhouse), and geographical region (Brazil, Latin America, North America, Africa, Asia, and Europe). To implement the posterior distribution as uncertainty in stochastic a model, parameters were obtained by linear combination of the posterior distributions of the model. The percentual of variation regarding the heterogeneity between studies is 33.93%. Carcass processing and cold status do not influence <em>Salmonella</em> spp. prevalence. Raw chicken meat collected at slaughterhouses had a 4% higher chance of being positive for <em>Salmonella</em> spp. than those taken at retail. However, this small difference seems to be of minor relevance given the large 95% credible interval around the parameter. The posterior distribution shows lower <em>Salmonella</em> spp. prevalence for Latin America, Brazil, Africa, Europe when compared to North America and Asia. In the sensitivity analysis, the parameters <span><math><msub><mi>β</mi><mrow><mi>c</mi><mi>o</mi><mi>l</mi><mi>d</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>, <span><math><msub><mi>β</mi><mrow><mi>s</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>m</mi><mi>p</mi><mi>l</mi><mi>e</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>, and <span><math><msub><mi>β</mi><mrow><mi>p</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>o</mi><mi>c</mi><mi>e</mi><mi>s</mi><mi>s</mi><mi>i</mi><mi>n</mi><mi>g</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> were weakly influenced by the priors, however, the relevance of the priors was more evident for the geographic region related parameters. <em>Salmonella</em> Enteritidis was the most widespread serovar identified and only three studies verified the concentration of <em>Salmonella</em> spp. but we were not able to conduct a meta-analysis because the studies omitted the standard deviation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100205"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43145970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of COVID-19 risk and prevention effectiveness among spectators of mass gathering events","authors":"Tetsuo Yasutaka ,&nbsp;Michio Murakami ,&nbsp;Yuichi Iwasaki ,&nbsp;Wataru Naito ,&nbsp;Masaki Onishi ,&nbsp;Tsukasa Fujita ,&nbsp;Seiya Imoto","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100215","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100215","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>There is a need to evaluate and minimize the risk of novel coronavirus infections at mass gathering events, such as sports. In particular, to consider how to hold mass gathering events, it is important to clarify how the local infection prevalence, the number of spectators, the capacity proportion, and the implementation of preventions affect the infection risk. In this study, we used an environmental exposure model to analyze the relationship between infection risk and infection prevalence, the number of spectators, and the capacity proportion at mass gathering events in football and baseball games. In addition to assessing risk reduction through the implementation of various preventive measures, we assessed how face-mask-wearing proportion affects infection risk. Furthermore, the model was applied to estimate the number of infectors who entered the stadium and the number of newly infected individuals, and to compare them with actual reported cases. The model analysis revealed an 86–95% reduction in the infection risk due to the implementation of face-mask wearing and hand washing. Under conditions in which vaccine effectiveness was 20% and 80%, the risk reduction rates of infection among vaccinated spectators were 36% and 96%, respectively. Among the individual measures, face-mask wearing was particularly effective, and the infection risk increased as the face-mask-wearing proportion decreased. A linear relationship was observed between infection risk at mass gathering events and the infection prevalence. Furthermore, the number of newly infected individuals was also dependent on the number of spectators and the capacity proportion independent of the infection prevalence, confirming the importance of considering spectator capacity in infection risk management. These results highlight that it is beneficial for organisers to ensure prevention compliance and to mitigate or limit the number of spectators according to the prevalence of local infection. Both the estimated and reported numbers of newly infected individuals after the events were small, below 10 per 3–4 million spectators, despite a small gap between these numbers.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100215"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352352222000159/pdfft?md5=862424f5eb5ef881b107c43819c82c35&pid=1-s2.0-S2352352222000159-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42380480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A climate-driven model for predicting the level of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in oysters harvested from Taiwanese farms using elastic net regularized regression","authors":"Nodali Ndraha ,&nbsp;Hsin-I Hsiao","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100201","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100201","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study aimed at, and developed, a climate-driven model for predicting the abundance of <em>V. parahaemolyticus</em> in oysters based on the local climatological and environmental conditions in Taiwan. The predictive model was constructed using the elastic net machine learning method, and the most influential predictors were evaluated using a permutation-based approach. The abundance of <em>V. parahaemolyticus</em><span> in oysters in different seasons, time horizons, and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were predicted using the Elastic-net machine learning model. The results showed: (1) the variation in wind speed or gust wind speed, sea surface temperature, precipitation, and pH influenced the prediction of </span><em>V. parahaemolyticus</em> concentration in oysters, and (2) the level of <em>V. parahaemolyticus</em> in oysters in Taiwan was projected to be increased by 40–67% in the near future (2046–2065) and by 39–86% by the end of twentieth-century (2081–2100) if the global temperature continues to increase due to climate change. The findings in this study may be used as inputs for quantifying the <em>V. parahaemolyticus</em> infection risk from eating this seafood in Taiwan.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100201"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42564558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cryptosporidium’s burden of disease attributable to consumption of wastewater-irrigated raw vegetables","authors":"Marzieh Farhadkhani ,&nbsp;Mahnaz Nikaeen ,&nbsp;Mahdi Hadi ,&nbsp;Hossein Nikaein ,&nbsp;Absar Alum ,&nbsp;Morteza Abbaszadegan","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mran.2022.100218","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Conventional wastewater treatment plants do not effectively remove parasitic protozoa resulting in their presence in wastewater effluent. Therefore, agricultural reuse of wastewater effluent could be a route of </span><span><em>Cryptosporidium</em></span> transmission into the food chain. Samples of secondary wastewater, wastewater-irrigated soil and vegetable samples were collected from an experimental field and analyzed using real-time PCR for quantification of <em>Cryptosporidium</em> oocysts. Quantitative microbial risk analysis (QMRA) was performed to determine the annual disease burden from <em>Cryptosporidium</em> associated with consumption of wastewater-irrigated vegetables. Detection of <span><em>Clostridium perfringens</em></span><span> spores as a potential indicator for the presence of </span><em>Cryptosporidium</em> was also performed. <em>Cryptosporidium</em> was observed in 64% of the effluent samples ranging from 16 to 162 oocysts L⁻¹, whereas no oocysts were detected in wastewater-irrigated soil and the vegetable samples. The mean annual disease burden for consumption of lettuce (6.6 × 10⁻⁵ DALY per person per year (pppy)) was higher than spring onion (3.4 × 10⁻⁶ DALY pppy) which both exceeding the WHO guideline of 10⁻⁶ DALYs pppy. However, the disease burden was within the acceptable range considering the less stringent level of 10⁻⁴ DALY pppy. <em>Clostridium</em> spores were detected in 92% of the effluent samples with no relationship with the presence of <em>Cryptosporidium</em>. The results of this study suggest that agricultural reuse of treated wastewater may not be a major health concern of cryptosporidiosis in a semi-arid region. However, because of the higher risk from lettuce, the choice of an appropriate crop would be needed to completely meet the WHO recommendations for safe reuse of wastewater. The accuracy of the QMRA model could be improved by further investigating the decay rate of oocysts in the same region.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100218"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136434731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Parameter estimates to support future risk assessment of Mycobacterium bovis in raw milk cheese","authors":"Áine B. Collins ,&nbsp;Simon J. More","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100204","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100204","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Zoonotic tuberculosis, caused by <em>Mycobacterium bovis</em>, is mainly linked to the consumption of raw milk from infected cows. In many countries, cases are rare, due to pasteurisation of milk and national programmes to control <em>M. bovis</em> infection in cattle. Speciality cheeses, which are often produced using raw milk, present challenges to risk managers in countries where <em>M. bovis</em> is endemic or (re-) emerging. A key concern is the potential risk of zoonotic transmission of <em>M. bovis</em> via the consumption of dairy products produced using raw milk originating from herds infected with <em>M. bovis</em> (bovine tuberculosis, bTB). The aim of this study was to determine parameter estimates to support the future risk assessment of <em>M. bovis</em> in raw milk cheese. In this study, the hazard was identified as viable <em>M. bovis</em> organisms in raw milk cheese. Parameters of interest in this study related to exposure assessment (the estimated extent of human exposure to viable <em>M. bovis</em> organisms) and hazard characterisation (the risk posed to human health following exposure to viable <em>M. bovis</em> organisms). The pathway for exposure assessment was visualised using a conceptual framework, which describes the steps through which <em>M. bovis</em> may be transferred from an infected animal(s) through manufacturing to the final cheese product. Estimation of most parameters for exposure assessment and hazard characterisation was undertaken using systematic literature reviews. Estimates could be derived for many parameters, but not all. In particular, the number of <em>M. bovis</em> organisms excreted in the milk and present in the faeces of infected cattle are unknown. There is zero-tolerance for <em>M. bovis</em> in foods of animal origin destined for human consumption in European legislation. This work has highlighted important gaps in knowledge, and areas for further research. For each of the parameters for which estimates are available, we outline the types/sources of uncertainty as reflected in relevant published papers. In any future application of these parameter estimates, care will be needed to reflect the uncertainties associated with these elements of exposure assessment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100204"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352352222000044/pdfft?md5=6b93654bac1c72d9cfc9b7895dee35c4&pid=1-s2.0-S2352352222000044-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45453917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk and socio-economic impact for Staphylococcus aureus foodborne illness by ready-to-eat salad consumption","authors":"Yewon Lee ,&nbsp;Hyemin Oh ,&nbsp;Yeongeun Seo ,&nbsp;Joohyun Kang ,&nbsp;Eunyoung Park ,&nbsp;Yohan Yoon","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100219","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100219","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Microbial risk assessment is a valuable tool to provide scientific evidence to control food safety. Therefore, this study evaluated the risk of foodborne illness caused by <em>Staphylococcus aureus</em> in ready-to-eat (RTE) salad products and economic impact. The prevalence of <em>S. aureus</em> in salads, the RTE salad consumption, and distribution conditions (time and temperature) in market parameters were determined, and the data were analysed using the @RISK program to determine the appropriate probabilistic distribution. Predictive models were developed to describe the fate of <em>S. aureus</em> under distribution conditions. A simulation model was prepared with the collected data to calculate the risk of illness per person per day, and this risk was used to calculate the economic impact. <em>S. aureus</em> was detected in 2% of RTE salads<em>,</em> and the initial contamination level was calculated using the Beta distribution. Baranyi model was used to calculate the maximum specific growth rate (<em>μ</em>_max), lag phase duration (<em>LPD</em>), and the secondary models well described the temperature effect on <em>LPD</em> and <em>μ</em>_max with <em>R²</em> values of 0.973–0.979. Also, the root mean square error values of 0.362 suggested that the model performance was appropriate. Lognormal distribution estimated that the average daily consumption amount and ratio was 137.7 g and 9.8%, respectively. The simulation model showed that the average probability of <em>S. aureus</em> foodborne illness following RTE salad consumption was 2.1 × 10⁻⁹ per person per day. The probability was used to estimate the socio-economic burden, and the annual socio-economic cost was calculated as $48,343.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100219"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49336612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Disease burden from simultaneous exposure of Cryptosporidium sp. and Giardia sp. and land use vulnerability assessment in a Costa Rican drinking water system","authors":"Eric Morales ,&nbsp;Gabriel Ibarra ,&nbsp;Liliana Reyes ,&nbsp;Kenia Barrantes ,&nbsp;Rosario Achí ,&nbsp;Luz Chacón","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100213","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100213","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Human and animal feces are one of the main pollutants in drinking water systems (DWS). Both sources of fecal pollution are related to environmental conditions, such as poor land use management and little micro-basin protection. <em>Cryptosporidium</em> sp. and <em>Giardia</em> sp. are zoonotic protozoan water and foodborne transmitted parasitic pathogens and a frequent cause of diarrhea in children in low- and middle-income countries. In Latin America, DWS microbial risk assessment of these parasites is scarce. The aim of this study was to apply land use analysis, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), and disease burden (DALY; disability-adjusted life years) estimation of <em>Cryptosporidium</em> sp. and <em>Giardia</em> sp. for DWS that supplies 1.4% of the Costa Rican population. Land use analysis showed pollution sources and urban activities at the catchment area of all micro-basins, demonstrating the pollution's vulnerability, especially near to catchment sites of the DWS. The risk of infection by <em>Cryptosporidium</em> sp. and <em>Giardia</em> sp. was higher than US EPA standards, and the health burdens were above WHO recommendations. The higher risk of infection was observed in the micro-basins with the higher area of urban use, mainly in the buffer zones. QMRA and land use analysis are useful tools for the characterization of possible pollution foci in hazard identification.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"21 ","pages":"Article 100213"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45789478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}