Microbial Risk Analysis最新文献_第7页

A comparative study between the top 10 origin countries involved in the EU RASFF notifications on aflatoxins from 1997 to 2022 1997年至2022年参与欧盟RASFF黄曲霉毒素通报的十大原产国之间的比较研究

IF 2.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2023.100277

Fawzy Eissa , Ahmed Salem Sebaei

{"title":"A comparative study between the top 10 origin countries involved in the EU RASFF notifications on aflatoxins from 1997 to 2022","authors":"Fawzy Eissa , Ahmed Salem Sebaei","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mran.2023.100277","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Aflatoxin B1 (AFB1), is among the most carcinogenic and genotoxic food and feed contaminants and there is no acceptable level of their intake. An analysis of the top 10 countries of origin notifications on aflatoxins (AFs) involved in the EU RASFF database over the last 26 years was undertaken. A risk assessment was estimated for simulating the worst-case scenario for the serious notifications of the mostly notified products as well. Out of 12,400 notifications on AFs over the period between 1997 and 2022, of which 10,340 (83.39 %) concerned Iran which was the most frequently notified country (21.56 %), followed by Turkey (20.48), China (9.99 %), India (7.88 %), the USA (7.74 %), Argentina (5.82 %), Egypt (3.94 %), Brazil (3.05 %), Pakistan (1.52 %), and Nigeria (1.41 %). Germany was the most notifying country, followed by the Netherlands. Among all notifications, 53.3 % have been border rejected. Nuts, nuts products, and seeds were the highest notified product category followed by fruits and vegetables. The highest serious risk decision in terms of notification number was taken for contaminated dried fig from Turkey, followed by pistachio from Iran. The estimated margin of exposure (MOE) values for the mostly notified products i.e., pistachio, dried fig, and peanut were <10,000 which is not safe and represents a health concern.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100277"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49739526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment model for Campylobacter in raw milk of dairy cows in Germany 德国奶牛原料奶中弯曲杆菌的定量微生物风险评估模型

IF 2.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2023.100274

Anna-Delia Knipper , Tasja Crease , Taras Günther , Matthias Filter , Maarten Nauta

{"title":"Quantitative microbiological risk assessment model for Campylobacter in raw milk of dairy cows in Germany","authors":"Anna-Delia Knipper , Tasja Crease , Taras Günther , Matthias Filter , Maarten Nauta","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100274","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100274","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The consumer demand for raw milk from dairy cows has increased and local sales via vending machines have been intensified. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the risk associated with the consumption of unboiled raw milk contaminated with <em>Campylobacter</em> by estimating the number of campylobacteriosis cases. For this a stochastic quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was developed that covered the whole supply chain. Information and data for model parametrization were obtained from research publications. Different probability distributions were used to represent the data whenever possible and probabilistic risk estimation was performed using Monte Carlo simulations. Simulations for outbreaks from single vending machines were performed using the developed QMRA baseline model. Further, different risk mitigation scenarios along the supply chain were evaluated to support risk managers in controlling <em>Campylobacter</em>. The analysis suggest a role for <em>Campylobacter</em> infections due to fecal contamination of cows’ udder. The model can easily be adapted and extended when additional data become available as it is provides in the harmonized exchange Food Safety Knowledge Exchange (FSKX) format.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100274"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46722587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modelling the kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus in goat's raw milk under different sub-pasteurisation temperatures 模拟不同亚巴氏灭菌温度下山羊原料奶中金黄色葡萄球菌的动力学

IF 2.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2023.100279

Beatriz Nunes Silva , Sara Coelho-Fernandes , José António Teixeira , Vasco Cadavez , Ursula Gonzales-Barron

{"title":"Modelling the kinetics of Staphylococcus aureus in goat's raw milk under different sub-pasteurisation temperatures","authors":"Beatriz Nunes Silva , Sara Coelho-Fernandes , José António Teixeira , Vasco Cadavez , Ursula Gonzales-Barron","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100279","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mran.2023.100279","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study, the heat resistance of <em>S. aureus</em> in goats’ raw milk subjected to thermisation temperatures was characterised through tests at various temperatures and modelling the survival curves using the Weibull model, through a two-step and an omnibus approach, which can model a full dataset covering all experimental conditions in one step. The fitting capacity of the secondary models obtained from the two-step approach was reasonable (adj. R<sup>2</sup> > 0.639) and both demonstrated the negative linear effects of temperature on <span><math><msqrt><mi>χ</mi></msqrt></math></span> (<em>p</em> = 0.0004) and <span><math><msqrt><mi>β</mi></msqrt></math></span> (<em>p</em> = 0.017). The fitting capacity of the omnibus model was more satisfactory (adj. R<sup>2</sup> = 0.996) and also hinted at the negative linear effect of temperature on <span><math><msqrt><mi>χ</mi></msqrt></math></span> (<em>p</em> < 0.0001), with the added advantage that, in this model, random effects can be used to account for the variability in the parameters. Our study estimated the significant inactivation parameters and established a model capable of predicting <em>S. aureus</em> behaviour at various temperatures. This information is useful to create time-temperature tables to reach target log reductions of <em>S. aureus</em> in goats’ raw milk to be used by artisanal cheesemakers; hence providing an opportunity to increase the microbiological safety of cheeses made from unpasteurised milk.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100279"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352352223000348/pdfft?md5=000a570b29c8f2b4b01b9065ebbda8a5&pid=1-s2.0-S2352352223000348-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92046169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk of African swine fever incursion into the Netherlands by wild boar carcasses and meat carried by Dutch hunters from hunting trips abroad 非洲猪瘟通过荷兰猎人从国外狩猎时携带的野猪尸体和肉侵入荷兰的风险

IF 2.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2023.100276

Manon Swanenburg, Tosca Ploegaert, Michiel Kroese, Clazien J. de Vos

{"title":"Risk of African swine fever incursion into the Netherlands by wild boar carcasses and meat carried by Dutch hunters from hunting trips abroad","authors":"Manon Swanenburg, Tosca Ploegaert, Michiel Kroese, Clazien J. de Vos","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100276","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100276","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>After the first introduction of African swine fever (ASF) in the European Union in 2014, the ASF virus (ASFV) has steadily spread in the European Union. The virus has occasionally been transmitted over unexpectedly large distances that are believed to be related to human-mediated spread. Hunting tourism has been mentioned as a potential contributor to these long-distance jumps, although evidence is lacking. In this study, the possible role of hunters carrying ASFV-contaminated wild boar products (WBP) from hunting trips in affected countries was evaluated. A quantitative risk model was developed to estimate the expected annual number of ASF exposures of wild boar and domestic pigs in the Netherlands via this introduction route. Main input data into the model were the ASF prevalence in hunted wild boar, the number and destination of hunting trips of Dutch hunters, and the probabilities that hunters take WBP home and dispose leftovers such that wild boar or domestic pigs have access. The model indicated that the total expected annual number of exposures (wild boar and domestic pigs together) in the Netherlands is 0.048 (95% uncertainty interval 7.5 × 10<sup>−3</sup> – 0.15). Model results were most sensitive to uncertainty on leftovers fed to domestic pigs (swill feeding), which is an illegal practice. Uncertainties on the ASF prevalence of hunted wild boar and the probabilities that hunters take WBP home also impacted model results. Default model results were based on the 2019 situation. Alternative scenarios were run with the model to account for the change of ASF status of Belgium (recovery of ASF-free status) and Germany (ASF-infected) in 2020. Results indicated that especially the presence of ASF in Germany increased the incursion risk. However, this increase might be counteracted by a change in travel behavior of hunters.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100276"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43988596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling the risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in oysters in Taiwan by considering seasonal variations, time periods, climate change scenarios, and post-harvest interventions 台湾牡蛎中副溶血性弧菌风险的模拟:考虑季节变化、时间周期、气候变化情景和收获后干预

IF 2.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2023.100275

Nodali Ndraha , Hung-Yun Lin , Han-Jia Lin , Hsin-I Hsiao

{"title":"Modeling the risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in oysters in Taiwan by considering seasonal variations, time periods, climate change scenarios, and post-harvest interventions","authors":"Nodali Ndraha , Hung-Yun Lin , Han-Jia Lin , Hsin-I Hsiao","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100275","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100275","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><em>Vibrio parahaemolyticus</em></span> is a halophilic gram-negative bacterium commonly found in marine environments, particularly in warm coastal waters. This pathogen has been reported as a common cause of foodborne illness associated with the consumption of raw or undercooked seafood. The presence and density of this bacterium in seafood are often associated with the climatological conditions of the marine environment. Herein, we developed the quantitative risk assessment model for <em>Vibrio parahaemolyticus</em> in oysters in Taiwan by considering seasonal variations, time periods, climate change scenarios, and post-harvest interventions. This study showed that season, time period, shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP), and post-harvest intervention significantly influenced the risk level of becoming ill from consuming oysters. The mean estimates of risk in winter, spring, summer, and fall were estimated to be 9.1 × 10<sup>−5</sup>, 2.0 × 10<sup>−3</sup>, 2.0 × 10<sup>−2</sup>, 6.9 × 10<sup>−3</sup><span> per serving, respectively. Our models predict that, if global temperatures continue to increase in the coming decades due to climate change, the risk per serving of oysters is likely to increase by 18-145% by 2041-2060 and by 18-718% by 2081-2100, depending on the season and SSP. The application of thermal processing or high hydrostatic pressure processing was found to be the most effective approach in reducing risk, even under the threat of increasing global temperatures.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100275"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47214844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatial risk assessment of ovine Scrapie in Brazil 巴西羊瘙痒病的空间风险评估

IF 2.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2023.100282

Paulo Gomes do Nascimento Corrêa , Francisco Alyson Silva Oliveira , Rivanni Jeniffer Souza Castro , Carlos Thiago Silveira Alvim Mendes de Oliveira , Glenda Lídice de Oliveira Cortez Marinho , Abelardo Silva Júnior , Ricardo Antonio Pilegi Sfaciotte , David Germano Gonçalves Schwarz

{"title":"Spatial risk assessment of ovine Scrapie in Brazil","authors":"Paulo Gomes do Nascimento Corrêa , Francisco Alyson Silva Oliveira , Rivanni Jeniffer Souza Castro , Carlos Thiago Silveira Alvim Mendes de Oliveira , Glenda Lídice de Oliveira Cortez Marinho , Abelardo Silva Júnior , Ricardo Antonio Pilegi Sfaciotte , David Germano Gonçalves Schwarz","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100282","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mran.2023.100282","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Brazilian sheep farming is an ancient socioeconomic activity of great importance for maintaining income and generating family employment. Brazil is the largest producer of sheep in South America, making it a strategic country for the control of infectious diseases such as scrapie. In the present study, scrapie was officially reported in 74 cases in nine Brazilian states between 2005 and 2021. Among all Brazilian regions, the South with 54.06 % (40/74), the Midwest with 28.38 % (21/74), and the Southeast with 16.21 % (12/74) stood out with higher relative frequencies in the number of cases of the disease. Among the states, Santa Catarina presented 35.14 % of the notified cases, and the risk of incidence (IR) was 91.9 per 100,000 sheep. The years with the highest reported cases were 2012 (17 cases and IR = 2.11) and 2017 (16 cases and IR = 6.17). There was the formation of a primary cluster in the year 2017, formed only by the state of Santa Catarina, with relative risk (RRs) = 313.97, and a secondary cluster formed by the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, Tocantins, Minas Gerais, and São Paulo in the period from 2006 to 2009, with RRs = 27.92. All of the states with reported cases shared borders, demonstrating the disease's ability to spread across state lines. Scrapie must be prevented from spreading in Brazil by implementing active surveillance measures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100282"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92046563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Upcoming epidemic storm: Empirical formulas, biosynthesis reactions, thermodynamic properties and driving forces of multiplication of the omicron XBB.1.9.1, XBF and XBB.1.16 (Arcturus) variants of SARS-CoV-2 即将到来的流行病风暴:SARS-CoV-2的omicron XBB.1.9.1、XBF和XBB.1.16 (Arcturus)变体的经验公式、生物合成反应、热力学性质和增殖驱动力

IF 2.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2023.100273

Marko E. Popovic, Marija Mihailović, Stefan Panić

{"title":"Upcoming epidemic storm: Empirical formulas, biosynthesis reactions, thermodynamic properties and driving forces of multiplication of the omicron XBB.1.9.1, XBF and XBB.1.16 (Arcturus) variants of SARS-CoV-2","authors":"Marko E. Popovic, Marija Mihailović, Stefan Panić","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100273","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100273","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 from the perspectives of medicine, biology, molecular biology, chemistry and biothermodynamics represent probably the best studied virus-host interaction until now. Empirical formula of SARS-CoV-2 is the second reported in history, immediately after the poliovirus. Empirical formulas of all SARS-CoV-2 variants have been reported in the literature. This paper reports empirical formulas, biosynthesis reactions and thermodynamic properties (enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs energy) for the XBB.1.9.1, XBF and XBB.1.16 variants of SARS-CoV-2. Since Gibbs energy of biosynthesis represents the driving force for </span>virus multiplication<span>, a conclusion was made that multiplication rate of the new SARS-CoV-2 variants is not significantly different than that of the other Omicron variants. Since multiplication rate determines the damage level to host cells, a conclusion was drawn that there is no increase in the degree of damage to host tissues. Thus, pathogenicity of the new variants did not significantly change. In that case, it can be expected that the number of severe cases should not increase. Therefore, it seems that the health risk for the society should not change.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100273"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42551775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Death from the Nile: Empirical formula, molar mass, biosynthesis reaction and Gibbs energy of biosynthesis of the West Nile virus 尼罗河死亡:经验公式、摩尔质量、西尼罗河病毒生物合成反应和吉布斯能

IF 2.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2023.100281

Marko Popovic , Marta Popovic , Gavrilo Šekularac

{"title":"Death from the Nile: Empirical formula, molar mass, biosynthesis reaction and Gibbs energy of biosynthesis of the West Nile virus","authors":"Marko Popovic , Marta Popovic , Gavrilo Šekularac","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mran.2023.100281","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>From July to October, West Nile virus is the leading cause of mosquito born disease in Europe and North America. This paper reports for the first time a chemical and thermodynamic analysis of the West Nile virus particles, genome and proteins, as well as interactions with its host organism. The empirical formula of mature West Nile virus particles was found through the atom counting method. Based on the empirical formula, biosynthesis reactions were formulated, which describe the formation of new virus live matter. Based on the biosynthesis reactions, Gibbs energy of biosynthesis was determined, which represents the physical driving force for the production of viral and host cell components. Gibbs energy of biosynthesis of the West Nile virus was found to be several times more negative than that of its host tissues. Due to the more negative Gibbs energy of biosynthesis, the West Nile virus components are produced much faster than those of its host cells. This allows the virus to hijack the host cell metabolism. Therefore, the virus-host interactions of the West Nile virus were explained through chemical and thermodynamic analysis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100281"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49739064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Eris - another brick in the wall: Empirical formulas, molar masses, biosynthesis reactions, enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs energy of Omicron EG.5 Eris and EG.5.1 variants of SARS-CoV-2 Eris-墙上的另一块砖：奥密克戎EG.5的经验公式、摩尔质量、生物合成反应、焓、熵和吉布斯能严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型的Eris和EG.5.1变体

IF 2.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2023.100280

Marko E. Popović , Marijana Pantović Pavlović , Marta Popović

{"title":"Eris - another brick in the wall: Empirical formulas, molar masses, biosynthesis reactions, enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs energy of Omicron EG.5 Eris and EG.5.1 variants of SARS-CoV-2","authors":"Marko E. Popović , Marijana Pantović Pavlović , Marta Popović","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100280","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mran.2023.100280","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Since 2019, when it appeared in Wuhan, in the wild type form later labeled Hu-1, SARS-CoV-2 mutated dozens of times and evolved towards increase in infectivity and decrease or maintenance of constant pathogenicity through dozens of variants. The last of them are Omicron EG.5 and EG.5.1. Until 2019, an empirical formula was known only for the poliovirus. Until now empirical formulas and thermodynamic properties were reported for all variants of SARS-CoV-2 and some other viruses. Also, models were developed that describe the biothermodynamic background of SARS-CoV-2 interaction with its human host. With every new mutation in SARS-CoV-2, the question is raised about the further evolution of the virus. This paper reports for the first time empirical formulas and molar masses of Omicron EG.5 and EG.5.1 variants, as well as thermodynamic properties (enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs energy) of formation and biosynthesis. Moreover, the driving force of virus multiplication was analyzed, as well as multiplication rate and pathogenicity of Omicron EG.5 and EG.5.1.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100280"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49762866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

In silico binding affinity of the spike protein with ACE2 and the relative evolutionary distance of S gene may be potential factors rapidly obtained for the initial risk of SARS-CoV-2 刺突蛋白与ACE2的硅结合亲和力和S基因的相对进化距离可能是快速获得SARS-CoV-2初始风险的潜在因素

IF 2.8 4区环境科学与生态学

Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2023-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2023.100278

Aki Sugano , Junon Murakami , Haruyuki Kataguchi , Mika Ohta , Yoshiaki Someya , Shigemi Kimura , Akira Kanno , Yoshimasa Maniwa , Toshihide Tabata , Kazuyuki Tobe , Yutaka Takaoka

{"title":"In silico binding affinity of the spike protein with ACE2 and the relative evolutionary distance of S gene may be potential factors rapidly obtained for the initial risk of SARS-CoV-2","authors":"Aki Sugano , Junon Murakami , Haruyuki Kataguchi , Mika Ohta , Yoshiaki Someya , Shigemi Kimura , Akira Kanno , Yoshimasa Maniwa , Toshihide Tabata , Kazuyuki Tobe , Yutaka Takaoka","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100278","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mran.2023.100278","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><p>In this research, we aimed to find potential factors which are rapidly obtained for the risk of the coming new variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), when their genetic substitutions were detected in late 2022.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We first performed molecular docking simulation<span> analyses of the spike proteins with human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) by using ZDOCK program to determine the binding affinities to human cells of three new variants of SARS-CoV-2: Omicron BQ.1, XBB, and XBB.1.5. We then investigated the three variants to determine the relative evolutionary distance of the spike protein gene (S gene) from the Wuhan, Omicron BA.1, and Omicron BA.4/5 variants.</span></p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>The results indicated that Omicron BQ.1. had a highest binding affinity but had the shortest evolutionary distance from BA.4/5. The XBB variant had a lower binding affinity and long evolutionary distances from all the three variants. However, the XBB.1.5 variant had the highest binding affinity of the spike protein with ACE2 and the longest evolutionary distance of the S gene.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>This result suggested that <em>in silico</em> binding affinity of the spike protein with ACE2 and the relative evolutionary distance of S gene may be potential factors for the risk of SARS-CoV-2 variants based on the comparison of infectivity of BQ.1, XBB, and XBB.1.5.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100278"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49739485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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