Microbial Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Community-onset anaerobic bloodstream infection, predisposing factors, and impact on survival: A prospective cohort study","authors":"Yenh-Chen Hsein ,&nbsp;Sih-Shiang Huang ,&nbsp;Wan-Ting Hsu ,&nbsp;Frank Qian ,&nbsp;Amy Huaishiuan Huang ,&nbsp;Alvaro E. Galvis ,&nbsp;Chin-Hua Su ,&nbsp;Chia-Hung Yo ,&nbsp;Chien-Chang Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100261","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100261","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Few studies have examined the outcomes and predisposing risk factors for anaerobic bloodstream infections (BSIs).</p></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><p>To determine the survival impact of aerobic versus anaerobic BSI, a prospective cohort study was conducted.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We prospectively enrolled emergency department patients at a tertiary medical center with BSIs determined by laboratory testing between 2015 and 2016. Anaerobic and aerobic BSIs were compared for demographics, comorbidities, and sources of infection. Several independent risk factors were identified in a multivariable logistic regression model. Using propensity score (PS) matched data, an analysis of survival effects associated with anaerobic BSI has been conducted.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>Over a 2-year period, there were 1,166 episodes of BSI, of which 61 (5.2%) occurred as anaerobic episodes. Anaerobic BSIs were strongly associated with intra-abdominal infection (odds ratio [OR] 6.03, 95%CI 2.78–13.09), liver abscess (OR 3.92, 95%CI 1.47–10.45), skin and soft-tissue infection (OR 2.65, 95%CI 1.26–5.62), and metastatic cancer (OR 2.40, 95%CI 1.13–5.08) as the main positive predictors. Negative predictors included diabetes mellitus (OR 0.38, 95%CI 0.18–0.78), thrombocytopenia (OR 0.33, 95%CI 0.18–0.60), and urinary tract infection (OR 0.15, 95%CI 0.04–0.62). Anaerobic BSIs were not associated with worse prognosis after PS-matched analysis (hazard ratio [HR] 1.40, 95%CI 0.44–4.41) in our cohort.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>A significant percentage of community-onset BSI was due to anaerobic BSI. Anaerobic BSI can have a detrimental outcome if there are underlying comorbidities, high-risk infection sites, and inappropriate antibiotic choices. The findings of our study may contribute to the prescription of empiric anti-anaerobe antibiotics.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"24 ","pages":"Article 100261"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48409043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantitative microbiological risk assessment model for Campylobacter in raw milk of dairy cows in Germany","authors":"Anna-Delia Knipper ,&nbsp;Tasja Crease ,&nbsp;Taras Günther ,&nbsp;Matthias Filter ,&nbsp;Maarten Nauta","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100274","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100274","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The consumer demand for raw milk from dairy cows has increased and local sales via vending machines have been intensified. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the risk associated with the consumption of unboiled raw milk contaminated with <em>Campylobacter</em> by estimating the number of campylobacteriosis cases. For this a stochastic quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was developed that covered the whole supply chain. Information and data for model parametrization were obtained from research publications. Different probability distributions were used to represent the data whenever possible and probabilistic risk estimation was performed using Monte Carlo simulations. Simulations for outbreaks from single vending machines were performed using the developed QMRA baseline model. Further, different risk mitigation scenarios along the supply chain were evaluated to support risk managers in controlling <em>Campylobacter</em>. The analysis suggest a role for <em>Campylobacter</em> infections due to fecal contamination of cows’ udder. The model can easily be adapted and extended when additional data become available as it is provides in the harmonized exchange Food Safety Knowledge Exchange (FSKX) format.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100274"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46722587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in oysters in Taiwan by considering seasonal variations, time periods, climate change scenarios, and post-harvest interventions","authors":"Nodali Ndraha ,&nbsp;Hung-Yun Lin ,&nbsp;Han-Jia Lin ,&nbsp;Hsin-I Hsiao","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100275","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100275","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><em>Vibrio parahaemolyticus</em></span> is a halophilic gram-negative bacterium commonly found in marine environments, particularly in warm coastal waters. This pathogen has been reported as a common cause of foodborne illness associated with the consumption of raw or undercooked seafood. The presence and density of this bacterium in seafood are often associated with the climatological conditions of the marine environment. Herein, we developed the quantitative risk assessment model for <em>Vibrio parahaemolyticus</em> in oysters in Taiwan by considering seasonal variations, time periods, climate change scenarios, and post-harvest interventions. This study showed that season, time period, shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP), and post-harvest intervention significantly influenced the risk level of becoming ill from consuming oysters. The mean estimates of risk in winter, spring, summer, and fall were estimated to be 9.1 × 10⁻⁵, 2.0 × 10⁻³, 2.0 × 10⁻², 6.9 × 10⁻³<span> per serving, respectively. Our models predict that, if global temperatures continue to increase in the coming decades due to climate change, the risk per serving of oysters is likely to increase by 18-145% by 2041-2060 and by 18-718% by 2081-2100, depending on the season and SSP. The application of thermal processing or high hydrostatic pressure processing was found to be the most effective approach in reducing risk, even under the threat of increasing global temperatures.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100275"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47214844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Upcoming epidemic storm: Empirical formulas, biosynthesis reactions, thermodynamic properties and driving forces of multiplication of the omicron XBB.1.9.1, XBF and XBB.1.16 (Arcturus) variants of SARS-CoV-2","authors":"Marko E. Popovic,&nbsp;Marija Mihailović,&nbsp;Stefan Panić","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100273","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100273","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 from the perspectives of medicine, biology, molecular biology, chemistry and biothermodynamics represent probably the best studied virus-host interaction until now. Empirical formula of SARS-CoV-2 is the second reported in history, immediately after the poliovirus. Empirical formulas of all SARS-CoV-2 variants have been reported in the literature. This paper reports empirical formulas, biosynthesis reactions and thermodynamic properties (enthalpy, entropy and Gibbs energy) for the XBB.1.9.1, XBF and XBB.1.16 variants of SARS-CoV-2. Since Gibbs energy of biosynthesis represents the driving force for </span>virus multiplication<span>, a conclusion was made that multiplication rate of the new SARS-CoV-2 variants is not significantly different than that of the other Omicron variants. Since multiplication rate determines the damage level to host cells, a conclusion was drawn that there is no increase in the degree of damage to host tissues. Thus, pathogenicity of the new variants did not significantly change. In that case, it can be expected that the number of severe cases should not increase. Therefore, it seems that the health risk for the society should not change.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"25 ","pages":"Article 100273"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42551775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The SARS-CoV-2 Hydra, a tiny monster from the 21st century: Thermodynamics of the BA.5.2 and BF.7 variants","authors":"Marko Popovic","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100249","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100249","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>SARS-CoV-2 resembles the ancient mythical creature Hydra. Just like with the Hydra, when one head is cut, it is followed by appearance of two more heads, suppression of one SARS-CoV-2 variant causes appearance of newer variants. Unlike Hydra that grows identical heads, newer SARS-CoV-2 variants are usually more infective, which can be observed as time evolution of the virus at hand, which occurs through acquisition of mutations during time. The appearance of new variants is followed by appearance of new COVID-19 pandemic waves. With the appearance of new pandemic waves and determining of sequences, in the scientific community and general public the question is always raised of whether the new variant will be more virulent and more pathogenic. The two variants characterized in this paper, BA.5.2 and BF.7, have caused a pandemic wave during the late 2022. This paper gives full chemical and thermodynamic characterization of the BA.5.2 and BF.7 variants of SARS-CoV-2. Having in mind that Gibbs energy of binding and biosynthesis represent the driving forces for the viral life cycle, based on the calculated thermodynamic properties we can conclude that the newer variants are more infective than earlier ones, but that their pathogenicity has not changed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 100249"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9898946/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9179254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A model using an inter-sectorial data integration process indicates that reducing Campylobacter cross-contamination at slaughter mitigates the risk of human campylobacteriosis effectively","authors":"Alessandro Foddai ,&nbsp;Maarten Nauta ,&nbsp;Johanne Ellis-Iversen","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100248","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100248","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The risk of human campylobacteriosis due to Danish broiler flocks cross-contaminated (<em>CC</em>) at slaughter with <em>Campylobacter</em> spp. was assessed. National surveillance data (2018) on flock <em>Campylobacter</em> status (called animal level component (AL)) and on contamination of chilled carcasses ready for consumption (food safety component (FS)), were compared. The AL component consisted of PCR testing results on pools of cloacal swabs collected from 3,012 conventional flocks, while the FS component presented culture testing of leg skins from 999 (of the 3,012) randomly sampled flocks. Datasets were integrated on flocks tested in both components, by combinations of farm-ID, house-unit and sampling date. The <em>CC</em> flocks were those entering the slaughterhouse as AL-negative, but resulting FS-positive. All remaining carcass positive flocks were instead classified as <em>Non-CC</em> flocks. The apparent prevalence (AP) of carcass positive flocks and the colony forming units per gram (cfu/g), measured by the FS component, were fed into a published simulation model, to assess under three simulation scenarios: the mean monthly risk per serving during 2018, relative (RR) to that of 2013 (reference year in the current Danish Action Plan). In the baseline scenario, the original AL status and the FS cfu/g were maintained. In the alternative scenarios I and II, the FS cfu/g were set = 0 (i.e. negative) for the <em>Non-CC</em> and for the <em>CC</em> flocks, respectively. Thus, scenario I and the differences between the other two scenarios, provided the contribution of the <em>CC</em> flocks to the AP and to the RR. The (overall) annual median log10 cfu/g was ≈ 2.8 (min. = 1.0; max. = 4.0) for the <em>Non-CC</em> flocks and 1.4 (1.0; 3.9) for the <em>CC</em> flocks. The median monthly difference in AP, between the baseline scenario and scenario II was 7% (min = 2% in January; max = 19% in August), while the difference in risk was 0.04% (0.001%; 0.11%), which was similar to the mean monthly risk under scenario I. If cross-contamination had not occurred (scenario II), the annual AP would have reduced from 24.3% to 16.1% and the RR would have reduced from 0.92 to 0.77. Therefore, ≈16% of the public health risk posed by Danish conventional broiler meat, appeared attributable to <em>CC</em> flocks. Reducing cross-contamination could mitigate the risk of human campylobacteriosis notably. This study illustrates how inter-sectorial surveillance data integration, can be used to optimize National Action Plans against <em>Campylobacter</em> spp. and other similar foodborne pathogens.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 100248"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48831983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Never ending story? Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 monitored through Gibbs energies of biosynthesis and antigen-receptor binding of Omicron BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB and XBB.1 variants","authors":"Marko Popovic","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100250","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100250","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>RNA viruses exhibit a great tendency to mutate. Mutations occur in the parts of the genome that encode the spike glycoprotein and less often in the rest of the genome. This is why Gibbs energy of binding changes more than that of biosynthesis. Starting from 2019, the wild type that was labeled Hu-1 has during the last 3 years evolved to produce several dozen new variants, as a consequence of mutations. Mutations cause changes in empirical formulas of new virus strains, which lead to change in thermodynamic properties of biosynthesis and binding. These changes cause changes in the rate of reactions of binding of virus antigen to the host cell receptor and the rate of virus multiplication in the host cell. Changes in thermodynamic and kinetic parameters lead to changes in biological parameters of infectivity and pathogenicity. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 has been evolving towards increase in infectivity and maintaining constant pathogenicity, or for some variants a slight decrease in pathogenicity. In the case of Omicron BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB and XBB.1 variants pathogenicity is identical as in the Omicron BA.2.75 variant. On the other hand, infectivity of the Omicron BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB and XBB.1 variants is greater than those of previous variants. This will most likely result in the phenomenon of asymmetric coinfection, that is circulation of several variants in the population, some being dominant.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 100250"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9896887/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9151135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Classification and ranking of shigatoxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) genotypes detected in food based on potential public health impact using clinical data","authors":"Roland Lindqvist,&nbsp;Catarina Flink,&nbsp;Mats Lindblad","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100246","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100246","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Risk classification and management of shigatoxin-producing <em>E. coli</em> (STEC) isolated from food has been hampered by gaps in knowledge about the properties that determine the extent to which different subtypes of STEC can cause severe disease. Data on the proportion of infected human cases being affected by severe illness enables an evaluation of existing approaches for classifying STEC strains and the development of a new public health based approach. Evaluations show that existing approaches do not unequivocally classify different STEC variants according to their ability to cause severe disease. A new approach for ranking of STEC genotypes, combining the estimated probability of the strain to cause severe illness with the public health burden associated with the illness in terms of DALY per case, address these limitations. The result is a list of STEC genotypes in descending order of potential public health burden per case. The approach is risk based in considering the probability and consequences following infection (severe illness), and can support transparent risk management. This is illustrated by, arbitrarily, separating the ranked list of genotypes into classes based on the potential public health burden, and by characterising collections of strains isolated from different foods into different classes. Further, the classification of food samples as satisfactory or not based on the cost in terms of proportion of food being rejected and the benefit in terms of the proportion of strains causing severe illness (HUS) that are being captured is demonstrated using this approach.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 100246"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46164961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A quantitative exposure assessment model for norovirus in oysters harvested from a classified production area","authors":"Kevin Hunt ,&nbsp;Bill Doré ,&nbsp;Sinead Keaveney ,&nbsp;Agnieszka Rupnik ,&nbsp;Francis Butler","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100247","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2023.100247","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Norovirus is a significant hazard to consumers of shellfish, in particular oysters. Oysters grown in waters contaminated with wastewater filter and accumulate norovirus particles, causing infection in humans when the product is consumed raw or lightly cooked. In the European Union (EU) and the United States, bacterial detection criteria are used to assess and manage microbial risk in shellfish. This regulatory framework is effective in managing the bacterial risks associated with microbiological contamination of bivalve shellfish but not for viruses. Although a standard detection method for norovirus in oyster exists (ISO 15,216–1:2017), no quantitative microbial risk assessment has been published that links the concentration of norovirus in oysters from a classified production area with consumer exposure. This study shows the successful development of a two-dimensional Monte Carlo exposure assessment model, taking an ISO 15,216–1:2017 detection result and producing an estimate of the resulting per-serving consumer exposure distribution. In contrast to previous oyster virus risk assessments, consumption is modelled using individual oysters as the unit, rather than total flesh weight. The variation in copies per oyster is modelled using a Poisson-lognormal distribution. The results show the boundaries for potential exposure following a given ISO detection result, and the relative importance of mean concentration, serving size, and oyster grade. This is directly relevant to potential regulatory thresholds being considered in the EU.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"23 ","pages":"Article 100247"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42987387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prediction of infectivity of SARS-CoV2: Mathematical model with analysis of docking simulation for spike proteins and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2","authors":"Yutaka Takaoka ,&nbsp;Aki Sugano ,&nbsp;Yoshitomo Morinaga ,&nbsp;Mika Ohta ,&nbsp;Kenji Miura ,&nbsp;Haruyuki Kataguchi ,&nbsp;Minoru Kumaoka ,&nbsp;Shigemi Kimura ,&nbsp;Yoshimasa Maniwa","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100227","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2022.100227","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><p>Variants of a coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) have been spreading in a global pandemic. Improved understanding of the infectivity of future new variants is important so that effective countermeasures against them can be quickly undertaken. In our research reported here, we aimed to predict the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 by using a mathematical model with molecular simulation analysis, and we used phylogenetic analysis to determine the evolutionary distance of the spike protein gene (S gene) of SARS-CoV-2.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We subjected the six variants and the wild type of spike protein and human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) to molecular docking simulation analyses to understand the binding affinity of spike protein and ACE2. We then utilized regression analysis of the correlation coefficient of the mathematical model and the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 to predict infectivity.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>The evolutionary distance of the S gene correlated with the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 variants. The calculated biding affinity for the mathematical model obtained with results of molecular docking simulation also correlated with the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 variants. These results suggest that the data from the docking simulation for the receptor binding domain of variant spike proteins and human ACE2 were valuable for prediction of SARS-CoV-2 infectivity.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>We developed a mathematical model for prediction of SARS-CoV-2 variant infectivity by using binding affinity obtained via molecular docking and the evolutionary distance of the S gene.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100227"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9212987/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40403360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}