Microbial Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Quantitative microbial risk assessment of antibiotic-resistant Salmonella enterica contaminating hydroponic leafy vegetables","authors":"Shun Takayama ,&nbsp;Qian Zhang ,&nbsp;Ye Htut Zwe ,&nbsp;Dan Li ,&nbsp;Daisuke Sano ,&nbsp;Wakana Oishi","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100330","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100330","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hydroponics plays an important role in addressing food security concerns, particularly in countries aiming to increase food self-sufficiency. However, it is vulnerable to microbial contamination, and biofilms formed in hydroponic facilities may promote horizontal gene transfer (HGT) of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs). Eventually, the bacteria are internalized into the edible parts of the vegetable through the roots, which can lead to human exposure to antibiotic-resistant pathogenic bacteria. Microbial risk assessment can play a pivotal role in microbial risk management; however, it has not been conducted for hydroponic systems. In this study, a quantitative microbial risk assessment of hydroponic vegetables was performed using literature values regarding the concentration of <em>Salmonella</em> spp. in hydroponics, efficiency of HGT, probability and rate of internalization, vegetable consumption patterns, and dose-response relationships. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the factors that had a significant impact on the infection probability per single exposure event for all <em>Salmonella</em> spp. by calculating Spearman's correlation coefficients. The estimated annual probability of infection per person by all <em>Salmonella</em> spp. was 2.04 × 10⁻¹, while the estimated probability of infection from <em>Salmonella</em> spp. that acquired ARGs was 2.54 × 10⁻⁶. Our sensitivity analysis showed the correlation between the occurrence of internalization and hydroponic contamination levels, highlighting the need for increased awareness and regulatory action.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100330"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142658932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measuring transboundary disease spread - ASF in wild boars straddling Piedmont and Liguria","authors":"Nicoletta Vitale ,&nbsp;Paola Barzanti ,&nbsp;Ines Crescio Maria ,&nbsp;Rosanna Desiato ,&nbsp;Lisa Guardone ,&nbsp;Valeria Listorti ,&nbsp;Walter Martelli ,&nbsp;Cristiana Maurella ,&nbsp;Barbara Moroni ,&nbsp;Rosaria Possidente ,&nbsp;Francesca Rossi ,&nbsp;Giuseppe Ru","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100329","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100329","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The aim of this paper is to describe the impact, dynamics and risk factors of the incursion of the African Swine Fever (ASF) virus detected in early 2022 in the wild boar population straddling Piedmont and Liguria, 24 months after its emergence.</div><div>A study area of 4,162.2 km²s, comprising 234 municipalities in Liguria and Piedmont (north-western Italy), along with an external buffer zone, was considered. The epidemiological units were wild boars tested for ASF using real-time PCR between late December 2021 and December 31, 2023. The data were obtained from passive and active surveillance. Conventional methodologies were applied in the analysis of time series of tests, cases, or prevalence rates of positive animals. Maps were used to visualise and compare the monitoring activities, the location of cases and municipal standardised prevalence ratios. Clustering of high and low trends was studied by semester using a space-time permutation model. Risk factors analysis was based on multivariate Poisson regression modelling.</div><div>Over the 2-year study period, the epidemic's spread was closely monitored by testing 10,412 wild boars (25 % of them from passive surveillance). Probability of disease detection was 10.9 times higher among found dead animals compared with animals tested in active surveillance. Difficulties in carcass searching led to heterogeneities in surveillance sensitivity achieved locally and inherent uncertainties. A total of 1,165 wild boars that tested positive for ASF have been detected in 125 municipalities across three provinces. The outbreak has expanded over time and exhibited an increasing trend, with an epidemic doubling time of 10.7 months. There was seasonality, with an increasing trend from summer to spring. Prevalence rates followed the same temporal pattern. Significant low and high clusters respectively indicated endemic episodes in the interior areas of virus circulation and an ongoing invasion of surrounding regions.</div><div>The characteristics of this outbreak align with the cycle of wild boar habitat transmission observed in other outbreaks across Europe. The measures implemented were not sufficient to stop the epidemic: however, targeted interventions such as depopulation campaigns, reinforcement of physical barriers and increased biosecurity measures have prevented local spillover to domestic pigs and partially hindered the advance of the disease. In addition, the shown seasonality of the disease, likely can enhance control measures. The ongoing studies of the local wild boar populations and the evolution the epidemic along with the lessons learned so far will improve the efficiency and effectiveness of efforts to limit and ultimately eradicate the disease.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100329"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142658933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing urban street food safety among youth: The impact of road dust on potential microbial contamination risks to student health","authors":"Thanh Tran ,&nbsp;Van Huu Dat ,&nbsp;Vu Nhat Phuong ,&nbsp;Tran Hoang Cam Tu ,&nbsp;Do Vinh Duong ,&nbsp;Ho Huu Loc","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100327","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100327","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the potential impact of air pollution on street food safety within educational environments, highlighting how airborne pollutants contribute to the microbial contamination of food, beverages, and environmental dust. A mixed-method approach was employed, combining microbial analyses with a survey of 200 students using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to assess attitudes, social pressures, and control over food safety practices. The findings reveal significant contamination levels: dust samples showed Coliform and E. coli concentrations of 3 × 10³ CFU/g and 2 × 10³ CFU/g, respectively, while food samples exhibited even higher microbial loads, with Coliform levels reaching 6.4 × 10⁶ CFU/g and E. coli up to 1 × 10⁴ CFU/g. SPSS 20 analysis reflects substantial concerns among students regarding the safety of street foods, emphasizing the need for increased public awareness. By establishing a clear link between air pollution and the microbial risks associated with street food, the study advocates for enhanced consumer education and regulatory measures to mitigate health risks and protect public health.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100327"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142658532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An approach to the microbiological risk ranking of cheeses","authors":"Elli Amanatidou ,&nbsp;J. Andrew Hudson ,&nbsp;Johanna Jackson ,&nbsp;Victoria Cohen ,&nbsp;Svetlozara Chobanova ,&nbsp;Marianne James ,&nbsp;Andy Axon","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100328","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100328","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) promote risk categorization approaches to assist understanding the public health risk associated with imported foods such as cheeses. A risk categorization should use information from the imported food, importer and exporting country profile to establish risk associated with imported foods. The first step involves assessing the product characteristics whilst step two is intended to consider country specific controls.</div><div>In this paper, we describe the first step in the development of a risk ranking approach using product characteristics to rank cheeses based on microbiological risk. The approach is applied to sixty types that may be commonly traded, based on an assessment of UK data on cheese imports. It uses risk factors of milk pasteurization, ripening method, and predicted pathogen growth in the finished cheese. Each risk factor was scored, and the total used to rank the cheeses with respect to the likelihood of them containing viable pathogens at the border, dependent on initial pathogen presence and potential for subsequent growth. The possible range of scores was 0 to 6. After scoring, none scored 0 or 1, and 13 scored 6.</div><div>Using international foodborne disease outbreaks and EU Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) notifications as benchmarks, cheese types were assigned one of four qualitative risk levels, from Very Low to High, based on their scores. These qualitative intervals did not align with trade codes, which are not risk-based, as some codes included cheeses from different risk levels. Neither was there a good correlation with Codex cheese classes, although it was noted that some very hard cheeses (e.g., Parmesan) received the lowest risk scores.</div><div>When scores were compared with outbreak and RASFF qualitative data there was a good correlation. For example, of those scored, no cheese scoring ≤3 had received a RASFF notification or caused an outbreak. Of the outbreaks associated with cheese types that were scored, 83.3 % of outbreaks implicated cheeses with a score ≥5.</div><div>For the sixty cheeses presented here, the data required for scoring were available. However, data may not be available for all cheeses. Where it is necessary to score a cheese that is lacking the necessary data, a read-across approach would be a potential solution, but this would increase associated uncertainty. The use of a standardized approach to risk ranking of cheeses produced consistent risk-based information that can be compared between cheese types but not between two classification systems (Harmonised System and Codex system). This aligns with the fact that neither classification system was designed to correlate with consumer safety.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100328"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142658926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Biothermodynamic analysis of the Dengue virus: Empirical formulas, biosynthesis reactions and thermodynamic properties of antigen-receptor binding and biosynthesis","authors":"Marko E. Popović ,&nbsp;Maja Stevanović ,&nbsp;Vojin Tadić","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100326","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100326","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>After the experience with the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO has issued a warning about the possible causes of future pandemics. One such causative agent is the Dengue virus. Until now, we have had information mostly on biological properties of the Dengue virus and very little information about its chemical and thermodynamic properties. To be better prepared for a potential Dengue pandemic, the goal of this paper is to chemically and thermodynamically characterize the Dengue virus, as well as to describe the biophysical basis of the virus-host interactions of the Dengue virus. To that goal, the empirical formula was determined, as well as biosynthesis reactions and thermodynamic properties of antigen-receptor binding and thermodynamic properties of biosynthesis and multiplication of the Dengue virus. A model was developed of virus-host interactions between the Dengue virus and its host tissues, based on nonequilibrium thermodynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100326"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142446711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Harmonizing Campylobacter risk assessments across European countries – can the pooled process hygiene criteria data be used in the Danish risk assessment model?","authors":"Francis Lauriau ,&nbsp;Maarten Nauta ,&nbsp;Nabila Haddad ,&nbsp;Sofia Strubbia ,&nbsp;Jean-Michel Cappelier ,&nbsp;Marianne Sandberg ,&nbsp;Sandrine Guillou ,&nbsp;Alessandro Foddai","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100325","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100325","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigated the possibility of harmonizing quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for <em>Campylobacter</em> spp. across European (EU) countries. French <em>Campylobacter</em> data (2020–2021) from neck skin (NS) pools, sampled at slaughterhouses under the European surveillance component for Food Business Operators (FBOs), were adapted to inform a QMRA model that, among others, has been used within the Danish Action Plan against <em>Campylobacter</em>, on the basis of single leg skins (LS) data. Datasets included culture results (in colony forming unit per gram, CFU/g) from 1,284 broiler flocks slaughtered at 13 slaughterhouses representing broiler production in western France. Five pools (of 2–4 NS samples each) per flock were tested. One pool per tested flock was randomly chosen for the analysis. After conducting descriptive statistics (on flock prevalence and meat contaminations across months and years), three contamination transformation factors (CTFs) were estimated to translate NS pools contaminations into single LS contamination, based on data from French and Danish studies. A reference simulation scenario (ScenRef) was set with CTF = 3.2 (i.e. NS pool concentration divided by 3.2); while other 13 scenarios represented an alternative scenario analysis to investigate the impact of: the CTF value (ScenMin with CTF = 2 and ScenMax with CTF = 10), censored test results (ScenUncens) and random choice of pool per flock (ScenSampling-1 to 10), on the risk estimates. The average monthly/annual risk of human disease per poultry meal and the monthly/annual relative risk (RR) of 2021 compared to 2020, were estimated. In ScenRef, the annual RR was 1.22, suggesting an increase of risk of ≈ 22 % in 2021 compared to 2020. The impact of CTFs, censored data and randomized pool sampling per flock, on the annual and (most) monthly RRs, appeared limited. This study gives an overview of the strengths and limitations to be considered for adapting the French FBO data into the Danish model and to harmonize risk assessments across EU countries, accordingly. To reduce uncertainty in risk estimates, it could be considered increasing representativeness of NS tested flock populations and/or using LS rather than NS samples; because LS samples are more representative of actually retailed meat contaminations. If NS pools are maintained, the relationships between concentrations on NS pools and those on consumed meat requires further investigation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100325"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142419781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An approach to risk categorization of Products of Animal Origin imported into the United Kingdom","authors":"Elli Amanatidou,&nbsp;Helen Graham,&nbsp;J. Andrew Hudson,&nbsp;Chloe L. Thomas,&nbsp;Arif Ali,&nbsp;James Donarski","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100324","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100324","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There are thousands of potential hazards associated with imported foods and to achieve an excellent food safety record, resources need to be focused on higher-risk foods and preventive mechanisms.</div><div>We were tasked to develop an automated tool to assess public health risks from imported foods across multiple countries of origin, hazards and product types to replace manually conducted single product-hazard qualitative import assessments.</div><div>In this paper we describe the generic import assessment of risk to consumers from importing foodborne microbiological hazards into the UK, to identify those higher-risk foods. A risk categorization approach was developed as recommended by international standards laid out in the CODEX principles and guidance by FAO and WHO on food control. The approach combines an assessment of the inherent risk of the commodity (product characteristics), and any hazard mitigation or control measures undertaken in the producing country (control characteristics) and incorporates real-world global data relating to food safety incidents over a three-year time window (compliance) for that product.</div><div>With the broad diversity of foods imported, food stuffs are grouped into commodity groups using the codes in the international Harmonised System of classification. The mapping of trade into commodity groups and the scoring system developed to estimate risk are presented.</div><div>Results by exporting country were generated for 16 selected public health hazards identified from global food safety incident data using expert elicitation.</div><div>To ensure the approach is dynamic, can keep pace with global trends, and uses resources efficiently, the assessment has been automated and predominantly uses data that is global, publicly available and routinely updated.</div><div>The results support risk managers in their regular reassessment of the controls that should be placed on foodstuffs imported into the UK.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100324"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142419646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk of BSE transmission when fishmeal derived from fish fed bovine spray-dried red blood cells is included in calf milk replacers","authors":"C.J. de Vos ,&nbsp;A.F.G. Antonis ,&nbsp;M.H.J. Sturme ,&nbsp;M. Appel","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100323","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100323","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The use of residual streams from agricultural production and food consumption containing animal proteins entails the risk of disease transmission as illustrated by the epidemics of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and African swine fever. To combat this risk, the use of animal proteins in livestock feed was banned in the European Union, resulting in a drain of valuable proteins from the agricultural system. With an increasing call for a circular food system, the use of residual streams as a feed ingredient needs to be reconsidered with the associated disease risks being assessed and mitigated where needed. In this study, we assessed the BSE risk of bovine spray-dried red blood cells (SDRBC) as an ingredient of aquafeed. Fish fed with bovine SDRBC could indirectly result in exposure of ruminants to BSE infectivity because one of the exemptions of the feed ban is the use of fishmeal as an ingredient in calf milk replacers. A quantitative risk model was built to evaluate the BSE infectivity present in blood sourced from a slaughtered BSE-infected cow and the reduction of infectivity due to processing steps along the production chain. The end point of the model was the BSE infectivity, expressed in cattle oral ID₅₀ (CoID₅₀), reaching calves fed calf milk replacer containing fishmeal, and the corresponding probability that this will result in at least one new BSE infection.</p><p>The expected BSE infectivity in blood from a BSE-infected cow at the clinical end state of infection is 0.75 CoID₅₀ (median value). Infectivity in blood mainly results from cross-contamination with brain tissue during stunning at the slaughterhouse. The initial infectivity is reduced along the pathway from slaughtered cow to calf milk replacer, with the highest reduction achieved by clearance of infectivity by fish fed bovine SDRBC as an ingredient of aquafeed, although this parameter has high uncertainty. The final infectivity reaching calves via inclusion of fishmeal in calf milk replacer is estimated to be very low (median value: 1.1 × 10⁻⁵ CoID₅₀). Assuming an exponential dose-response model, this corresponds with an expected probability that &lt; 10 out of a million slaughtered BSE-infected cows will result in new BSE infections, which is far below the threshold value of 1 for the basic reproduction number (R0) to initiate a new epidemic. We thus conclude that it is very unlikely that the use of bovine SDRBC as ingredient of aquafeed will result in a new BSE epidemic in cattle. What-if analysis indicated that this conclusion is robust, despite high uncertainty for some input parameters.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100323"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352352224000343/pdfft?md5=fa75484b3a29893cb80c7903e67ee737&pid=1-s2.0-S2352352224000343-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142228532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A procedure for surveillance data-driven risk assessment to inform Campylobacter risk-based control","authors":"Alessandro Foddai ,&nbsp;Marianne Sandberg ,&nbsp;Maarten Nauta","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100322","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100322","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this study is presented a procedure for surveillance data-driven risk assessment, which can be used to inform inter-sectorial <em>Campylobacter</em> risk-based control, e.g. within National Action Plans and One Health (OH) systems. <em>Campylobacter</em> surveillance data (2019 to 2022) and a published quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model were used, to show the procedure. Moreover, an interface tool was developed in Excel for showing descriptive statistics on measured apparent flock prevalence (AP) and concentrations (colony forming units per gram, cfu/g) on the meat, together with their related QMRA outputs. Currently (mid-2024), Danish fresh broiler meat is produced by four slaughterhouse companies (A, B, C and D), where approximately 30 % of the annually slaughtered broiler flocks are randomly culture tested, on one leg skin (LS) sample per flock sampled from chilled carcasses. Data variables were: date of sampling, farm-ID, within farm house-ID, flock-ID, slaughterhouse name, sample-ID, and <em>Campylobacter</em> concentrations. Flocks were classified as carcass positive with a concentration ≥ 10 cfu/g. The data was fed into the QMRA model to assess: a) the average risk of human campylobacteriosis per serving (during a month or year), and b) the monthly/annual risk of 2022 relative (RR) to the baseline (average) risk from the previous three years. The descriptive statistics and the risk assessment (RA) were carried out at national level and for each slaughterhouse. In 2022, the national RR was 1.03, implying that the average annual risk increased by approximately 3 % compared to the baseline. Nevertheless, for slaughterhouses A, B and D, the annual risk decreased by ≈ 22 %, 21 % and 43 %, respectively; whereas for slaughterhouse C it increased by 48 %. Monthly risk estimates showed seasonal variations, according to the visualized changes of AP and meat contaminations. The national monthly RR was &gt;1 in July and from September to December. During those months: slaughterhouse C had always RR &gt; 1, slaughterhouse A had a relative increase of risk in July, slaughterhouse B in July and November, and slaughterhouse D in October and December. The procedure and the tools used in this study, allow identifying the impact of seasonality and food-chain stages (i.e. slaughterhouses and their broilers sourcing farms) on the risk per serving, so that <em>Campylobacter</em> risk-based control could be implemented accordingly, from farm to fork, across consecutive surveillance periods. The same principles could be applied in other countries, food chains, and/or for other foodborne pathogens, when similar data and QMRA models are available.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100322"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352352224000331/pdfft?md5=32b4b73e8580494977f5d87ec84cbeb7&pid=1-s2.0-S2352352224000331-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142136338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying microbial risk from drinking water production process under changing climate and socio-economic conditions","authors":"M․M․ Majedul Islam","doi":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100321","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.mran.2024.100321","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Consumption of drinking water containing pathogenic microorganisms may pose serious health risks from waterborne diseases. Quantifying such risks is essential for guiding interventions and policy decisions. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is a very useful method to estimate the public's risk of infection from disease-causing microorganisms in water sources. QMRA of drinking water production process is limited worldwide and so far no such QMRA study has been conducted in Bangladesh. Moreover, climate and socio-economic changes may impact waterborne pathogens and associated health risks, but to what extent remains unclear, because comprehensive QMRA by taking into account combined impact of climatic and socio-economic factors has never been done worldwide so far. In this study, the Swedish QMRA tool was applied to evaluate public health risk from drinking water production process in Dhaka, Bangladesh as a case study. At first, current risk was quantified, and then the potential future risk was projected by taking into account climate and socio-economic factors. The results revealed that the annual infection risks at the current (2020s) baseline condition were below the acceptable risk threshold 10^–4 infections per person per year (as proposed by several USEPA scientists) for all three pathogens <em>Salmonella,</em> norovirus and <em>Giardia</em>. However, after extreme events with sewer overflow and agricultural runoff, norovirus violates the acceptable risk thresholds, and the risks for <em>Salmonella</em> and <em>Giardia</em> are in borderline. The selected sustainable future scenario showed some improvement in terms of annual infection risks, while the uncontrolled scenario resulted in substantially higher infection risks both in the near and far future compared to the current scenarios. installment of a UV treatment step as an additional treatment barrier resulted in significant infection risk reduction. According to the sensitivity analysis results, socio-economic factors such as human population, livestock, and pathogen removal in wastewater were found to have greater influence on the infection risks, compared to climate change. The study can help policy makers and water managers to identify interventions to reduce the burden of disease on the population. The tool can be used to assess the health risk associated with drinking water production process in other areas of the world with similar characteristics.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48593,"journal":{"name":"Microbial Risk Analysis","volume":"27 ","pages":"Article 100321"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141964150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}