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Health and plastics: avenues for strengthening the plastics treaty 健康与塑料:加强塑料条约的途径。
IF 20.5 1区 医学
Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101482
Simon Beaudoin, Peter Dauvergne
{"title":"Health and plastics: avenues for strengthening the plastics treaty","authors":"Simon Beaudoin, Peter Dauvergne","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101482","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101482","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 6","pages":"Article 101482"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148272943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Correction to Lancet Planet Health 2026, 10: 101423 《柳叶刀星球健康》2026,10:101423。
IF 20.5 1区 医学
Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101496
{"title":"Correction to Lancet Planet Health 2026, 10: 101423","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101496","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101496","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 6","pages":"Article 101496"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148340610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wellbeing for people and the planet: how to value everyone and everything on a thriving planet beyond 2030 人类和地球的福祉:如何重视2030年后繁荣地球上的每个人和每件事。
IF 20.5 1区 医学
Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101475
Prof Kate E Pickett PhD, Prof Robert Costanza PhD, Roberto De Vogli PhD, Ida Kubiszewski PhD, Prof Jacqueline McGlade PhD, Lars F Mortensen MSc, Prof Kristin Vala Ragnasdottir PhD, Stewart Wallis MSc, Prof Richard G Wilkinson MMedSci
{"title":"Wellbeing for people and the planet: how to value everyone and everything on a thriving planet beyond 2030","authors":"Prof Kate E Pickett PhD,&nbsp;Prof Robert Costanza PhD,&nbsp;Roberto De Vogli PhD,&nbsp;Ida Kubiszewski PhD,&nbsp;Prof Jacqueline McGlade PhD,&nbsp;Lars F Mortensen MSc,&nbsp;Prof Kristin Vala Ragnasdottir PhD,&nbsp;Stewart Wallis MSc,&nbsp;Prof Richard G Wilkinson MMedSci","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101475","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101475","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Humanity is crossing multiple planetary boundaries while facing rising inequality, democratic fragility, and worsening mental health, exposing the incompatibility of unlimited gross domestic product-driven growth with a finite, socially interdependent planet. Only 17% of the Sustainable Development Goal targets are on track, indicating the need for a deeper transformation rather than faster implementation. Synthesising evidence across disciplines, we argue that human beings are evolutionarily wired for cooperation and relational wellbeing, and not perpetual consumption and status competition. This argument underpins a post-2030 shift in a global development paradigm that places multidimensional wellbeing, of people and the planet, at its core. We outline three mutually reinforcing systemic shifts: deliberative democracy that gives communities real power to shape collective futures; economic democracy that redirects finance, enterprise design, and fiscal policy towards equitable, regenerative outcomes; and transformed land and resource governance that recognises ecological limits and the rights of nature. By aligning institutions with the cooperative nature of humans and the Earth’s regenerative capacity, societies can achieve flourishing lives for all within planetary boundaries, offering a scientifically grounded agenda for the decades beyond 2030.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 6","pages":"Article 101475"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148370366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pandemic impacts on protected rainforests and rural communities with variable health and livelihood support in West Kalimantan, Indonesia: a mixed-methods approach combining household surveys and remote sensing 大流行对印度尼西亚西加里曼丹受保护雨林和保健和生计支助各不相同的农村社区的影响:结合住户调查和遥感的混合方法。
IF 20.5 1区 医学
Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101455
Skylar R Hopkins PhD, Ashley Hazel PhD, Julie D Pourtois PhD, Andrew J Chamberlin BSc, Zachary Gajewski PhD, Ian Harryman MPhil, Susanne H Sokolow DVM PhD, Andrew J MacDonald PhD, Nicole Nova PhD, Abrar Ahmad MSc, Juanisa Andiani MSc, Ashley Emerson MA, Nur Febriani MA, Nina Lester Finley MSc, Qothrun Izza MSc, Adam Miller BSc, Iwi Sartika BA, Kinari Webb MD, Sakib Burza MD PhD, Prof Iskandar Z Siregar PhD, Prof Giulio A De Leo PhD
{"title":"Pandemic impacts on protected rainforests and rural communities with variable health and livelihood support in West Kalimantan, Indonesia: a mixed-methods approach combining household surveys and remote sensing","authors":"Skylar R Hopkins PhD,&nbsp;Ashley Hazel PhD,&nbsp;Julie D Pourtois PhD,&nbsp;Andrew J Chamberlin BSc,&nbsp;Zachary Gajewski PhD,&nbsp;Ian Harryman MPhil,&nbsp;Susanne H Sokolow DVM PhD,&nbsp;Andrew J MacDonald PhD,&nbsp;Nicole Nova PhD,&nbsp;Abrar Ahmad MSc,&nbsp;Juanisa Andiani MSc,&nbsp;Ashley Emerson MA,&nbsp;Nur Febriani MA,&nbsp;Nina Lester Finley MSc,&nbsp;Qothrun Izza MSc,&nbsp;Adam Miller BSc,&nbsp;Iwi Sartika BA,&nbsp;Kinari Webb MD,&nbsp;Sakib Burza MD PhD,&nbsp;Prof Iskandar Z Siregar PhD,&nbsp;Prof Giulio A De Leo PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101455","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101455","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Community support programmes can simultaneously improve human and ecosystem health. However, whether and how supported communities maintain these sustainable trajectories during major disruptions remains unclear. We used a mixed-methods approach to document how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted rural communities and protected rainforests in West Kalimantan.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We surveyed 1016 households across six villages with non-governmental organisation (NGO)-affiliated health–livelihood support and four nearby unaffiliated villages to understand their pandemic experiences and logging activity. We also independently estimated weekly forest loss in protected rainforests in 28 NGO-affiliated and 698 unaffiliated villages using satellite imagery.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The pandemic created an economic shock, whereby 50% of households lost income, struggled with increased costs of basic needs, or both. We expected this shock to increase the amount of logging; however, the average forest loss across West Kalimantan decreased by 39% after the pandemic declaration. This decrease was due to the combined effects of the global timber market crash in early 2020, pandemic travel restrictions, and heavy precipitation in 2020 and 2021. Before the pandemic, the average forest loss was 52% lower in NGO-affiliated villages than in unaffiliated villages, with this difference increasing to 68% during the pandemic. Correspondingly, NGO-affiliated households were more likely to report having alternative sustainable livelihoods, several sources of external support (eg, loans), and access to affordable health care and less likely to report increased spending on basic needs during the pandemic.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Health and livelihood support can buffer communities during major disturbances, sustaining progress towards improved human wellbeing and forest conservation.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>David and Lucile Packard Foundation and the National Geographic Society.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 6","pages":"Article 101455"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148537324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Prices and cost drivers of alternatives to animal-source foods: a scoping review and narrative analysis 动物源性食品替代品的价格和成本驱动因素:范围审查和叙事分析。
IF 20.5 1区 医学
Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101485
Stella Nordhagen PhD, Ty Beal PhD, Mario Herrero PhD, Lynnette Neufeld PhD, Kristina Sokourenko MA
{"title":"Prices and cost drivers of alternatives to animal-source foods: a scoping review and narrative analysis","authors":"Stella Nordhagen PhD,&nbsp;Ty Beal PhD,&nbsp;Mario Herrero PhD,&nbsp;Lynnette Neufeld PhD,&nbsp;Kristina Sokourenko MA","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101485","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101485","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This Review examines the pricing and cost drivers of alternatives to animal-source foods (Alt-ASFs). Through systematic searches, we identified 76 eligible studies. Traditional, unprocessed or minimally processed plant-based foods, such as legumes, are relatively low cost across contexts. However, most other Alt-ASFs are not cost-competitive with conventional animal products. Plant-based dairy and meat analogues come closest to price parity with their animal-based equivalents, with average price ratios of 1·81–2·04, while insect prices vary widely by product type and context. Projected cell-based meat prices range from slightly lower to several times higher than conventional meat prices. Research shows a strong geographical bias towards high-income western countries, with less coverage of low-income and middle-income regions except for traditional insect-based foods. Promoting legumes and related plant-based foods, such as tofu, could offer a viable approach to reducing animal-source food consumption in high-consumption settings without requiring further price reductions. However, scaling other Alt-ASFs will require substantial cost reductions through technological advances, particularly for cell-based and algae-based products, or policy-level approaches, such as subsidy reform, true-cost pricing, or carbon taxes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 6","pages":"Article 101485"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148473570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Drivers of sylvatic yellow fever transmission in southeast Brazil: a joint epidemiological and phylodynamic inference 巴西东南部森林黄热病传播的驱动因素:流行病学和系统动力学的联合推断。
IF 20.5 1区 医学
Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101488
Ciara Judge PhD, Felipe C M Iani PhD, Emilie Finch PhD, Katy A M Gaythorpe PhD, Prof Nuno R Faria PhD, Sarah C Hill DPhil, Prof Oliver J Brady DPhil
{"title":"Drivers of sylvatic yellow fever transmission in southeast Brazil: a joint epidemiological and phylodynamic inference","authors":"Ciara Judge PhD,&nbsp;Felipe C M Iani PhD,&nbsp;Emilie Finch PhD,&nbsp;Katy A M Gaythorpe PhD,&nbsp;Prof Nuno R Faria PhD,&nbsp;Sarah C Hill DPhil,&nbsp;Prof Oliver J Brady DPhil","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101488","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101488","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Yellow fever virus (YFV) has caused substantial human disease in Brazil, driven by spillover from outbreaks in nearby non-human primates (NHPs). As disease surveillance in NHPs is challenging, the impact of environmental conditions on YFV outbreaks in NHPs remains poorly understood. In this study, we aimed to use joint inference modelling to overcome these obstacles by integrating diverse data streams and to estimate YFV transmission dynamics in NHPs to enhance understanding of yellow fever disease ecology.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We applied a multistage analysis using epidemiological, phylogenetic, demographic, and meteorological data in conjunction with mechanistic and statistical modelling. We used EpiFusion joint inference models to infer YFV infection dynamics in NHPs from 2015 to 2019, and statistical generalised additive models to test hypothesised associations between NHP infections and environmental variables and human cases.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The effective reproduction number (R<sub>t</sub>) of YFV in NHPs was approximately 1·0, indicating that small changes in transmissibility can enable explosive sylvatic outbreaks. We also found the possibility of large, entirely unobserved outbreaks in NHPs. El Niño sea surface temperature anomalies at medium-term and long-term lags were important predictors of YFV infection dynamics in NHPs. Finally, we found that the risk of YFV spillover to humans, measured in terms of the effect of NHP infections on human cases, was correlated with the number of NHP infections, with a 7-day to 21-day lag.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>YFV might be establishing recurrent transmission in NHP populations in southeast Brazil, indicating that more comprehensive and consistent surveillance is needed. Identifying key environmental drivers and their lags with human YFV cases can be used to develop early warning systems to guide reactive vaccination and public health campaigns to prevent future outbreaks.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>None.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 6","pages":"Article 101488"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148550769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Environmental impacts of alternatives to animal-source foods: a scoping review 动物源性食品替代品的环境影响:范围审查。
IF 20.5 1区 医学
Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101461
Kristina Sokourenko MA MPP, Ty Beal PhD, Graham McAuliffe PhD, Olivia Young, Zachary Gould, Benjamin Quint, Stella Nordhagen PhD, Elizabeth DiGiovine DPT, Elisabetta Lambertini PhD, Maria Xipsiti MS, Lynnette M Neufeld PhD, Prof Mario Herrero PhD
{"title":"Environmental impacts of alternatives to animal-source foods: a scoping review","authors":"Kristina Sokourenko MA MPP,&nbsp;Ty Beal PhD,&nbsp;Graham McAuliffe PhD,&nbsp;Olivia Young,&nbsp;Zachary Gould,&nbsp;Benjamin Quint,&nbsp;Stella Nordhagen PhD,&nbsp;Elizabeth DiGiovine DPT,&nbsp;Elisabetta Lambertini PhD,&nbsp;Maria Xipsiti MS,&nbsp;Lynnette M Neufeld PhD,&nbsp;Prof Mario Herrero PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101461","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101461","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drawing on a comprehensive systematic search of the literature, this scoping Review examined 125 studies on the environmental impacts of alternatives to animal-source foods (Alt-ASFs) compared with conventional animal-source foods. Alt-ASFs generally required fewer natural resources and produced lower greenhouse gas emissions than animal-source foods, with the most consistent advantages observed for plant-based foods. Environmental impacts of insect-based, fungi-based, algae-based, and cell-based alternatives were more variable than plant-based alternatives, reflecting differences in production methods, processing intensity, and energy sources. The evidence base was concentrated in high-income countries, with low coverage of low-income and middle-income contexts. Moreover, analyses of ecological dimensions beyond greenhouse gas emissions, land and water use—such as biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and resource cycling—were comparatively scarce. Taken together, the evidence suggests that Alt-ASFs can contribute to more sustainable food systems relative to those with higher reliance on animal-source foods (particularly in high-income settings), but the scale and consistency of benefits remain sensitive to production practices and analytical assumptions underlying comparative analyses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 5","pages":"Article 101461"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147983916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reliable data are crucial to ensuring women’s water security and influence 可靠的数据对于确保妇女的水安全和影响力至关重要。
IF 20.5 1区 医学
Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101478
Bethany A Caruso, Fiona Gore, Elizabeth Engebretson, Marina Takane
{"title":"Reliable data are crucial to ensuring women’s water security and influence","authors":"Bethany A Caruso,&nbsp;Fiona Gore,&nbsp;Elizabeth Engebretson,&nbsp;Marina Takane","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101478","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101478","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 5","pages":"Article 101478"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148220137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How we imagine the future matters 我们如何想象未来很重要。
IF 20.5 1区 医学
Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101493
The Lancet Planetary Health
{"title":"How we imagine the future matters","authors":"The Lancet Planetary Health","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101493","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101493","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 5","pages":"Article 101493"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148363047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Severe droughts and the tuberculosis and HIV care cascade in the Brazilian Amazon: a Bayesian, structural, interrupted time-series analysis of 24 years of surveillance data 巴西亚马逊地区的严重干旱、结核病和艾滋病护理级联:对24年监测数据的贝叶斯、结构、中断时间序列分析。
IF 20.5 1区 医学
Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101459
Rodrigo C Menezes MD PhD, Rodrigo M Teles, Isabella B B Ferreira MD, Leandro S Garcia MSc, Jair S Pinheiro MSc, Tiago F Mota PhD, Klauss Villalva-Serra MD, Leandro R Macedo PhD, Moreno M S Rodrigues PhD, Artur T L Queiroz PhD, Marcelo Cordeiro-Santos Prof, Bruno B Andrade Prof
{"title":"Severe droughts and the tuberculosis and HIV care cascade in the Brazilian Amazon: a Bayesian, structural, interrupted time-series analysis of 24 years of surveillance data","authors":"Rodrigo C Menezes MD PhD,&nbsp;Rodrigo M Teles,&nbsp;Isabella B B Ferreira MD,&nbsp;Leandro S Garcia MSc,&nbsp;Jair S Pinheiro MSc,&nbsp;Tiago F Mota PhD,&nbsp;Klauss Villalva-Serra MD,&nbsp;Leandro R Macedo PhD,&nbsp;Moreno M S Rodrigues PhD,&nbsp;Artur T L Queiroz PhD,&nbsp;Marcelo Cordeiro-Santos Prof,&nbsp;Bruno B Andrade Prof","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101459","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101459","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>In river-dependent regions such as the Brazilian Amazon, severe droughts can disrupt care continuity by isolating municipalities and fragmenting supply chains. We assessed how four major droughts affected tuberculosis and HIV care cascades in Amazonas state.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We analysed monthly data (Jan 1, 2001, to Dec 31, 2024) from all 62 municipalities of the Amazonas state, Brazil, grouped into nine river basins and stratified by sex when available. Droughts were defined by the relative maximum cumulative water deficit value being below −2·0 or river discharge at or below the fifth historical percentile. We prespecified four major drought episodes affecting Amazonas at a monthly resolution: May to June, 2005; May to June, 2010; August, 2015, to April, 2016; and October, 2023, to February, 2024. Outcomes were primary-care consultations, tuberculosis and HIV notifications, treatment interruption, and disease-specific mortality. Additionally, we did a prespecified subgroup analysis stratified by sex for both diseases’ indicators to assess whether drought-associated deviations differed systematically between men and women. We fitted Bayesian hierarchical negative binomial models to estimate counterfactual trajectories and summarised effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and excess events per 100 000 population.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The 2015–16 drought coincided with widespread consultation deficits (statewide peak IRR 0·78 [95% credible interval 0·68–0·89]) and pronounced increases in HIV treatment interruption across all basins (statewide peak IRR 6·01 [2·12–15·33]), particularly among men (Rio Negro peak IRR 5·57 [3·02–9·78]). By contrast, the 2023–24 drought coincided with increased care consultations statewide (peak IRR 1·63 [1·25–2·11]) but persistent treatment interruption and mortality signals, including female-predominant increases in HIV treatment interruption in Rio Negro (peak IRR 2·87 [1·27–5·63]) and female mortality statewide (1·97 [1·05–3·39]), with additional basin-level mortality increases in Alto Solimões, Baixo Amazonas, and Médio Amazonas. Tuberculosis notifications increased mainly in 2023–24 in specific basins, especially in Baixo Amazonas (peak IRR 2·09 [1·54–2·76]), Médio Amazonas (1·74 [1·30–2·28]), and Baixo Solimões (1·60 [1·24–2·07]).</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Severe droughts were associated with basin-specific disruptions in tuberculosis and HIV care cascades in the Brazilian Amazon, with clearer signals in adherence-dependent and downstream outcomes than in case detection. Strengthening resilience will require anticipatory, continuity-focused strategies that safeguard treatment access during climate-related transport constraints.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas and Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 5","pages":"Article 101459"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148158602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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