Lancet Planetary Health最新文献

{"title":"Exceeding human heat tolerance in a warming, ageing world: a global projection modelling study","authors":"Qinqin Kong PhD,&nbsp;Daniel J Vecellio PhD,&nbsp;Prof Matthew Huber PhD,&nbsp;Rachel M Cottle PhD,&nbsp;S Tony Wolf PhD,&nbsp;Olivia K Leach PhD,&nbsp;Kat G Fisher PhD,&nbsp;Prof Eran Bendavid MD,&nbsp;Prof W Larry Kenney PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101494","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101494","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>In a warming world, understanding where, when, and to what extent human heat tolerance limits will be breached has become increasingly important. Previous projections applied heat limits for healthy young adults to all age groups, overlooking greater vulnerability in older ages. With global ageing, this oversight could seriously underestimate future heat risks. In this study, we aimed to examine the extent to which accounting for age-specific heat tolerance alters global projections of heat limit exceedances.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We integrated experimentally derived heat limits for young (18–39 years), middle-aged (40–59 years), and older adults (≥60 years) with climate projections and age-stratified population projections to assess where and to what extent these limits could be breached across age groups under 1–4°C of global warming above preindustrial levels. The climate projections include bias-corrected projections of dry-bulb temperature and wet-bulb temperature from 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models under the shared socioeconomic pathway 5-8·5 scenario. We also highlighted countries with high exposure risk and low adaptive capacity.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>More widespread and imminent breaches of heat limits were estimated among older adult populations than among other populations. Older adults faced more frequent and spatially extensive exceedances under the 1·5°C global warming scenario relative to the preindustrial period than young adults did under 4°C. Using age-specific thresholds more than doubled the global population having 180 h or more of exceedance annually as compared with previous estimates. Older adults in south Asia and the Persian Gulf could face sustained, day-and-night exposure for three consecutive months at 3°C or more warming. We also identified 13 countries under 3°C global warming above the preindustrial period where poverty rates exceed 50% and either at least 10 million older adults or at least 80% of the older adult population experiences 180 h or more of heat limit exceedance annually. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Niger exceed both the absolute (10 million older adults) and proportional (80% of older adults) exposure thresholds.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Our results suggest accounting for age stratified vulnerability, intolerable heat will be experienced at much larger scales and for longer durations, affecting far more people than previously estimated. By identifying who and where people are exposed, our findings can inform targeted heat action plans and guide resource allocation and response planning.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>US National Institutes of Health; US National Science Foundation; US National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Yale Institute for Biospheric Studies; The Rockefeller Foundation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 7","pages":"Article 101494"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148799818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Plant-based misinformation as a barrier to dietary transition","authors":"Miguel López-Moreno,&nbsp;Aitor Sánchez García,&nbsp;Isabel Viña","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101502","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101502","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 7","pages":"Article 101502"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148550729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How the Strait of Hormuz is restructuring nutrition in small island developing states","authors":"Zaheer Allam,&nbsp;Rushaa Badaloo,&nbsp;David S Jones,&nbsp;Ali Cheshmehzangi,&nbsp;Zarrin Allam","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101500","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101500","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 7","pages":"Article 101500"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148563118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The GHEMMS checklist: design, conduct, and reporting guidance for studies modelling climate mitigation actions and their health cobenefits","authors":"Tamzin Reynolds MSc,&nbsp;Prof James Milner PhD,&nbsp;Hugh Sharma Waddington PhD,&nbsp;Blanca Anton MSc,&nbsp;Lorna Benton PhD,&nbsp;Kristine Belesova PhD,&nbsp;Prof Sarah Whitmee PhD,&nbsp;Rebecca Newbould MSc,&nbsp;Soledad Cuevas PhD,&nbsp;Esther Curtin MSc,&nbsp;Prof Rosemary Green PhD,&nbsp;Prof Andy Haines FMedSci","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate mitigation actions can deliver numerous health cobenefits, providing opportunities to frame greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions in terms of their immediate benefits to human life. Health effects of mitigation (HEM) modelling studies help to evidence these human health benefits, driving progress towards net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. However, HEM modelling studies often contain inappropriate heterogeneity, resulting in inefficiencies in evidence development, synthesis, and use, thus hindering policy implementation. We developed the guidance for health effects of mitigation modelling studies (GHEMMS) checklist after performing an umbrella review of HEM research and existing guidance, consulting interest holders, conducting iterative testing on HEM modelling literature, and piloting. This novel checklist is a tool to guide best practice for the design, conduct, and reporting of HEM modelling studies. The GHEMMS checklist contains 30 items divided into seven main categories: (1) planning and protocol, (2) background context, (3) defining the scenarios, (4) GHG modelling, (5) health modelling, (6) validity, and (7) reporting. The GHEMMS checklist addresses methodological heterogeneity and nontransparency in current HEM research. It provides a structured approach for modelling the GHG impact and health cobenefits of climate mitigation actions, thereby enhancing comparability, clarity, and policy relevance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 7","pages":"Article 101474"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148632344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Growth dependence of welfare states: a semi-systematic review of drivers and policy responses","authors":"Prof Milena Büchs,&nbsp;Tuuli Hirvilammi PhD,&nbsp;Thomas Webb MSc,&nbsp;Dario Leoni PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101491","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101491","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Critiques of economic growth are receiving increased scientific and public attention. The post-growth literature discusses how wellbeing can be achieved for all within planetary boundaries. However, current welfare states, which play a crucial role in supporting health and wellbeing, are often seen as growth dependent. The drivers of welfare state growth dependencies and related policy responses remain poorly understood. In this Review, we address this gap and provide an overview of drivers and policy responses, by performing a semi-systematic literature review. The Review identified key drivers that the literature suggests, such as the growth dependence of employment and related welfare funds, rent extraction and for-profit provisioning, increasing inequality, ageing societies, political power of vested interests, and environmental impacts. Policies proposed as responses to these drivers include maintaining employment without growth, using less growth dependent revenues, restricting rent seeking and political power of vested interests, implementing predistributive and redistributive policies, implementing preventive health-care approaches, and mitigating climate change. We argue that a more holistic assessment of policies should consider the interaction between the supply of welfare funding and demand for welfare spending. Finally, we summarise views in the literature on whether welfare state growth independence can be achieved within a capitalist system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 7","pages":"Article 101491"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148686080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Colombia centred science to help states phase out fossil fuels.","authors":"Isabella Kaminski","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101477","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":" ","pages":"101477"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148177035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental suitability of Coccidioides in the USA under climate change scenarios: a modelling study","authors":"Aniruddha Deshpande MPH PhD,&nbsp;Mitsuru Toda MS PhD,&nbsp;Samantha L Williams MPH,&nbsp;Prof Howard H Chang PhD,&nbsp;Prof Stefanie Ebelt MSc ScD,&nbsp;Morgan Lane MPH,&nbsp;Noah Scovronick MSc PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101481","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div><em>Coccidioides</em> are fungi endemic to western USA and are estimated to cause more than 200 000 symptomatic cases of coccidioidomycosis, also known as Valley fever, annually. Endemicity is influenced by environmental conditions, including precipitation, temperature, and soil composition. As environmental conditions change in the future, the geographical distribution of the fungi can be altered.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this modelling study, we used generalised additive models to construct two <em>Coccidioides</em> suitability models at the county and ZIP code tabulation area (ZCTA) scales. The county model used public health surveillance data from 2010 to 2019 provided by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, whereas the ZCTA model was based on emergency department visit data. We compared predicted suitable areas to assess the utility of hospital data in estimating <em>Coccidioides</em> suitability and projected future suitability using data from 33 global climate models for 2050, 2075, and 2100.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The ZCTA model had better out-of-sample predictive performance for identifying endemic areas than the county model (area under the precision-recall curve: 0·81 <em>vs</em> 0·57), including higher specificity (0·84 <em>vs</em> 0·52). Both models identified potential suitable areas for the fungi beyond California and Arizona, including Texas, where coccidioidomycosis is currently not a notifiable disease. Additionally, both models projected a similar future northward and eastward shift in <em>Coccidioides</em> suitability, with these shifts exacerbating under higher levels of warming. Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5, we estimated that non-endemic ZCTAs containing 23 million (95% uncertainty interval 8–34) people could become suitable for <em>Coccidioides</em> by 2050, rising to areas containing 30 million (21–43) by 2100.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Potential future expansion of <em>Coccidioides</em> into new regions highlights the need for increased surveillance in the USA. Hospital data can be used to estimate Valley fever risk wherever surveillance data are scarce.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>US National Institutes of Health.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 6","pages":"Article 101481"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148550710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change and malaria in west Africa: a review of strategies to handle one of the world’s most prominent anthroponoses","authors":"Prof Walter Leal Filho,&nbsp;Ugochinyere Agatha Okafor PhD,&nbsp;Gouvidé Jean Gbaguidi PhD,&nbsp;Prof Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101484","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101484","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is intensifying the threat of malaria in Africa by altering the geographical range, seasonality, and transmission intensity of the disease. Rising temperatures promote mosquito breeding and parasite development, whereas extreme weather events, particularly flooding, disrupt control efforts and create breeding sites, enabling their spread into previously unaffected highland areas. These factors pose an evolving public health challenge. Malaria-control strategies, often designed for stable climatic conditions, risk being outpaced by rapid environmental changes. However, little is known regarding how national policies integrate climate adaptation into strategic planning. We qualitatively analysed national malaria strategic plans and related policy documents from 11 west and central African countries, published between 2015 and 2025. We assessed incorporation of climate and weather information into malaria surveillance, early-warning systems, and vector-control planning. Although most countries recognise the influence of climate and seasonality on malaria transmission, explicit integration of climate data into planning and surveillance remains scarce. Ghana and Nigeria use advanced data-driven approaches, including predictive agent-based modelling and subnational stratification, to guide interventions, whereas Togo, Benin, Senegal, and The Gambia show emerging progress. However, most national malaria strategic plans remain reactive rather than predictive because of data, technical, and coordination gaps. This Review highlights policy and implementation gaps in integrating climate adaptation within malaria-control programmes. We recommend climate-resilient malaria strategies centred on enhanced surveillance, integrated meteorological forecasting, and strengthened institutional capacity to support adaptive, evidence-based interventions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 6","pages":"Article 101484"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148563411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Planetary Health Research Digest","authors":"Cahal McQuillan","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101489","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101489","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 6","pages":"Article 101489"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148220177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Biodiversity: actions lagging behind aspirations","authors":"The Lancet Planetary Health","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101497","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101497","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 6","pages":"Article 101497"},"PeriodicalIF":20.5,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148649459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}