Lancet Planetary Health最新文献

{"title":"Projected heatwave-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios across 2288 communities in Australia: a nationwide ecological projection modelling study","authors":"Botian Chen MPH , Rongbin Xu PhD , Zhihu Xu MSc , Wenhua Yu PhD , Yanming Liu PhD , Zhaoyuan Li MSc , Yunfei Xing MSc , Prof Yuming Guo PhD , Prof Shanshan Li PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101446","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101446","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Climate change is intensifying the frequency, duration, and severity of heatwaves globally, posing a growing threat to human health. However, few fine-scale projections of heatwave-related excess mortality account for spatial disparities and adaptive capacity. We aimed to estimate future heatwave-related excess mortality across statistical area level 2 (SA2) communities in Australia under multiple climate scenarios.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this modelling study, we projected excess mortality rates across 2288 SA2 communities in Australia for the period 2020–2100 under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) representing alternative trajectories of adaptation (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Daily all-cause mortality data from Jan 1, 2009, to Dec 31, 2019, were obtained from the Australian Coordinating Registry and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We estimated historical exposure–response relationships using a two-stage distributed lag non-linear model with multivariate meta-regression. Future daily temperatures were obtained from bias-corrected, downscaled projections based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (a global climate model intercomparison project) and combined with mortality data and SSP-specific population forecasts to estimate annual excess deaths and excess mortality rates. We assessed median percentage changes in annual excess mortality rates for 2050–59 and 2090–99 using the 2020–29 period as a reference. Two adaptation scenarios were considered: no adaptation and full adaptation. Uncertainty was quantified through Monte Carlo simulations.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Heatwave-related excess mortality was projected to increase substantially across Australia under all SSP scenarios. We estimated that, in 2100, without adaptation, annual excess deaths would reach approximately 5820 under SSP5-8.5 (a scenario of a fossil fuel-intensive future with little mitigation) and the cumulative total of heatwave days across all communities would be 174 079. Heatwave-related excess mortality rates were projected to be highest in Northern Territory during 2090–99, at 33·9 deaths per 100 000 population (95% empirical CI 13·9–55·0), followed by Queensland, at 18·4 deaths per 100 000 population (7·6–29·8), and New South Wales, at 12·8 deaths per 100 000 population (5·3–20·7); projected percentage changes in excess mortality rate relative to 2020–29 ranged from 356% (in West Coast, South Australia) to 4412% (in Thamarrurr, Northern Territory). Although full adaptation substantially reduced the projected mortality burdens, considerable residual risks remained. Spatial disparities in excess mortality rates persisted across states, socioeconomic strata, and urban–rural classifications, although absolute differences were modest.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>This study provides a comprehensive assessment of future heatwave-related excess mortality across Au","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 4","pages":"Article 101446"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147786021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Healthpunk: speculative methods for the future of planetary health","authors":"Filip Maric PhD ,&nbsp;Bodhisattva Chattopadhyay PhD ,&nbsp;Jena Webb PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101436","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101436","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Challenges in planetary health necessitate the use of science fiction and speculative futurisms as tools for transformative change. A critical gap, however, is the absence of a framework for activating science fiction and speculative futurisms to address crises of imagination that obstruct planetary health and impede the advancement of corresponding transformation. We introduce healthpunk as an emerging science fiction and speculative futurisms framework that integrates speculative thinking with a focus on planetary health. A series of interventions involving students and professionals from diverse sectors was undertaken to identify key elements of such a framework. These interventions led to the co-creation of multiple anthologies on planetary health futures and indicated a positive reception of science fiction and speculative futurisms as a means of transforming planetary health among an expanding community of authors and readers. At the same time, the findings underscore the need for methodological guidance. We argue that a dedicated healthpunk training programme, grounded in a fully developed framework, could address existing challenges and enable the full potential of science fiction and speculative futurisms within planetary health practice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 3","pages":"Article 101436"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147533470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Re-endangerment","authors":"The Lancet Planetary Health","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101463","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101463","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 3","pages":"Article 101463"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147677812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Car dependency and US environmental health research: a long drive from motonormativity to planetary health","authors":"Michael D Garber PhD ,&nbsp;David Rojas-Rueda PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101434","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101434","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) has advanced understanding of traffic-related air pollution and its health impacts. Yet the research funder has not recognised car dependency itself as a structural environmental exposure that shapes population health through multiple environmental pathways beyond air quality, including traffic injuries, noise, heat, and greenhouse gas emissions. The US public health research enterprise, and the NIEHS in particular, should encourage environmental health researchers to apply their expertise to car dependency, a societal status quo with far-reaching implications for environmental justice, population health, and planetary health. Planetary health provides a useful framework for this reorientation, urging researchers to study population health and climate-related consequences together rather than in isolation. Doing so will require the NIEHS to adopt a broader conception of health-related outcomes than it has traditionally applied, including population-level health effects—which might differ in direction from individual-level counterparts—and indicators of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Given its methodological breadth and cross-disciplinary tradition, the environmental health research community is well-positioned to lead this effort.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 3","pages":"Article 101434"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147582861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The imperative to counter fossil fuel industry disinformation for public health","authors":"Shweta Narayan ,&nbsp;Mark Conway ,&nbsp;Linda Rudolph ,&nbsp;Jeni Miller ,&nbsp;Natalia Linou ,&nbsp;Jayalakshmi Shreedhar","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101435","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101435","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 3","pages":"Article 101435"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147677839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rethinking labour in food systems for planetary health","authors":"Emmanuel Raju ,&nbsp;Ricardo Fuentealba","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101444","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101444","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 3","pages":"Article 101444"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147460611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Governing artificial intelligence for planetary health","authors":"Felix Creutzig Prof ,&nbsp;Fatima Denton Prof ,&nbsp;Emmie Hine MA ,&nbsp;Somya Joshi Prof ,&nbsp;Gong Ke Prof ,&nbsp;Yara Kyrychenko BA ,&nbsp;Xue Lan Prof ,&nbsp;Dirk Messner Prof ,&nbsp;Daniel W O’Neill Prof","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101408","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101408","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Establishing global governance of artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an increasingly pressing challenge to ensure the provision of global public goods and to mitigate harmful effects on societies and the planet. Current debates around AI take various forms, follow diverse narratives, and centre variously on economic, social, environmental, or safety aspects. Here, we make three contributions. First, we classify risks and challenges of AI across the social, planetary, and safety domains. Second, we show that AI should be governed as a global commons, requiring coordinated interventions across all three domains, reflecting relevant inter-domain feedback loops, and root drivers, such as the pursuit of monopolistic AI power and the AI-infused media environment. Third, we identify data, energy, and compute as relevant regulatory dimensions across social, planetary, and safety domains. We conclude by emphasising the importance of limiting agentic AI, incentivising depolarising algorithms on social media, and setting AI dynamics within the context of global equity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 3","pages":"Article 101408"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146259024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Leave no one behind: a call to include people with disabilities in climate change and health research","authors":"Sera Kim PhD ,&nbsp;Yejin Kim BSc ,&nbsp;Jinah Park MPH ,&nbsp;Ranyeong Kim PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Whanhee Lee PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Michelle L Bell PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Jong-Tae Lee PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101440","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101440","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change disproportionately affects more than 1 billion people with disabilities worldwide. However, this population remains substantially under-represented in research on climate change and health. In this Personal View, we discuss how climate change affects the health of people with disabilities through both direct impacts (eg, extreme temperatures and climate-related disasters) and indirect impacts (eg, forced displacement and unintended consequences of mitigation and adaptation strategies). We also explore the current research gaps and key considerations for understanding climate change-related health risks in this population. A major barrier to disability-inclusive research is the scarcity of health databases that incorporate disability-related characteristics. Prioritising the collection and linkage of disability-related information with environmental and health data is crucial for advancing this field. The heterogeneity among people with disabilities warrants particular attention, as different types of disabilities and sociodemographic factors create distinct vulnerability patterns. We call for disability-inclusive epidemiological studies to address these knowledge gaps and develop equitable adaptation strategies that protect the health and rights of people with disabilities in a rapidly changing climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 3","pages":"Article 101440"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147345385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association between Great Salt Lake desiccation, air quality, and major depressive episodes: an ecological study","authors":"Maheshwari Neelam PhD ,&nbsp;Kamaldeep Bhui MD ,&nbsp;Trent Cowan MSc ,&nbsp;Brian Freitag PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101405","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101405","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Background&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;The desiccation of the Great Salt Lake (UT, USA), driven by water use and diversion, has reduced water inflow and exposed vast areas of lakebed. Exposed lakebed can release airborne PM&lt;sub&gt;2·5&lt;/sub&gt;, degrading air quality in surrounding communities. Previous research has established links between air pollution and mental health outcomes, but there is little research on the specific mental health effects of declining lake levels and associated dust exposure. We aimed to examine the association between Great Salt Lake water levels, PM&lt;sub&gt;2·5&lt;/sub&gt; concentration, and major depressive episodes in the surrounding population.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Methods&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;In this ecological study, we investigated relationships between Great Salt Lake decline, PM&lt;sub&gt;2·5&lt;/sub&gt; exposure, and mental health outcomes across all Utah counties using hydrological, atmospheric, and epidemiological datasets between 2006 and 2018. These data included in-situ lake measurements (from the US Geological Survey), PM&lt;sub&gt;2·5&lt;/sub&gt; from ground-based monitoring and reanalysis datasets (from MERRA-2 and AirNow network stations), the Social Vulnerability Index (from US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), and records of major depressive episodes (from the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration). All datasets underwent quality control, variable preparation, and calculation of Z scores, and were harmonised both spatially and temporally. We calculated PM&lt;sub&gt;2·5&lt;/sub&gt; exceedance days based on US Environmental Protection Agency and WHO thresholds for harms, namely more than 15 μg/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; and more than 35 μg/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt;. Statistical analyses included Kruskal–Wallis tests for non-parametric group comparisons, followed by Dunn's post-hoc tests for pairwise comparisons. An ANOVA examined direct (main) and indirect (interaction) effects between factors, with F statistics measuring between-group versus within-group variance ratios.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Findings&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Great Salt Lake shrinkage was linked to poorer air quality, with decreasing lake area (&lt;em&gt;r&lt;/em&gt;=–0·28; p&lt;0·0001) and volume (&lt;em&gt;r&lt;/em&gt;=–0·31; p&lt;0·0001) associated with more PM&lt;sub&gt;2·5&lt;/sub&gt; exceedance days. A dose–response relationship was found between depression severity and pollution exposure: individuals who had fewer high PM&lt;sub&gt;2·5&lt;/sub&gt; exceedance days had very low depression scores, whereas those exposed to more exceedance days had high and very high scores (H 28·9574; p&lt;0·0001). This relationship showed nuanced differences across seasons (H 152·4771; p&lt;0·0001) and age groups (H 51·8269; p&lt;0·0001). Finally, our analysis showed a direct association between PM&lt;sub&gt;2·5&lt;/sub&gt; exceedance days and depression severity (F 12·341; p=0·0005), whereas social vulnerability acted as a significant moderator (F 6·979; p=0·0084). This interaction indicates that for a given level of PM&lt;sub&gt;2·5&lt;/sub&gt; exposure, socially vulnerable populations have a disprop","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 3","pages":"Article 101405"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147610335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating the vulnerability contribution to 1990–2019 changes in the health burden of ambient air pollution: a global modelling study","authors":"Christopher S Malley PhD ,&nbsp;Prof Drew T Shindell PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101442","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101442","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Efforts to reduce the health burden of air pollution focus on reducing pollutant exposure. Less studied are changes in the vulnerability of populations to ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2·5) exposure that also affect PM_2·5-attributable mortality rates. Vulnerability to PM_2·5 is the capacity of a population to be harmed by exposure. Multiple factors affect vulnerability, including pre-existing medical conditions, socioeconomic status, access to and quality of health care, race, and smoking. We aimed to quantify how changes in vulnerability to PM_2·5 have affected PM_2·5-attributable mortality rate trends between 1990 and 2019.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this global modelling study, we used data on mortality rates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, demographic data from UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and PM_2·5 concentration data from State of Global Air, to estimate 1990–2019 trends in national PM_2·5-attributable mortality rates separately across age and sex categories for 193 countries. We used a demographic model to simulate 1990–2019 PM_2·5-attributable mortality rates accounting only for the effect of changes in PM_2·5 exposure. The contribution of changes in vulnerability to 1990–2019 PM_2·5 mortality rate trends was estimated as the residual change in PM_2·5 mortality rates after accounting for the effect of changes in PM_2·5 exposure.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Between 1990 and 2019, global average age-standardised PM_2·5-attributable mortality rates decreased by approximately 45% (140 deaths per 100 000 [95% CI 97–176] in 1990 and 78 deaths per 100 000 [54–98] in 2019). Approximately 48% of the decrease resulted from PM_2·5 exposure reductions (1·01 deaths per 100 000 per year [0·65–1·30]), and approximately 52% was from reductions in vulnerability to PM_2·5 (1·07 deaths per 100 000 per year [0·78–1·29]). Without vulnerability reductions, 1·7 million additional PM_2·5-attributable deaths would have occurred in 2019. Globally, the sensitivity of PM_2·5-attributable mortality rates to vulnerability changes was, on average, that a 1·8% reduction in non-PM_2·5 mortality rates was associated with a 1% reduction in PM_2·5-attributable mortality rates.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Given the major contribution reductions in vulnerability to air pollution have made to reducing PM_2·5-attributable mortality rates over the past three decades, identifying actions to reduce non-communicable diseases could contribute to reducing future air pollution health burdens. Air quality strategies should consider interventions to further reduce vulnerability, in addition to exposure reductions.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>EU Horizon Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 3","pages":"Article 101442"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147576017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}