Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第7页

Rethinking the forecasting of innovation diffusion: A combined actor- and system approach

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124058

Hanna Cardol , Ingrid Mignon , Björn Lantz

{"title":"Rethinking the forecasting of innovation diffusion: A combined actor- and system approach","authors":"Hanna Cardol , Ingrid Mignon , Björn Lantz","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124058","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124058","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Technological forecasting has significantly expanded over the last decades, leading to widespread use of forecasting models for explaining technology adoption and diffusion of innovation. While these models are broadly used, they have faced criticism for narrowing the explanatory components of adoption, focusing on adopters, innovation characteristics, or environmental factors, but seldom combine these to address complex problems holistically. This paper aims to combine actor- and system perspectives on innovation diffusion with the intention to broaden the explanatory power of traditional forecasting models. The study focuses on the case of solar photovoltaic (PV) diffusion in Sweden, surveying 46,507 residential PV adopters that applied for the capital subsidy program between 2009 and 2021 about their adoption satisfaction. Findings suggest that traditional models primarily account for direct effects on adoption satisfaction, whereas incorporating system-level factors captures indirect effects, providing a more comprehensive understanding of technology adoption. This highlights the interplay between actor- and system-level factors and acknowledging the holistic nature of innovation diffusion, which can inform future forecasting practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 124058"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143454233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dynamic optimization of e-commerce supply chains for fresh products with blockchain and reference effect

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124040

Xiujuan Liu , Yong He , Golnaz Hooshmand Pakdel , Shanshan Li

{"title":"Dynamic optimization of e-commerce supply chains for fresh products with blockchain and reference effect","authors":"Xiujuan Liu , Yong He , Golnaz Hooshmand Pakdel , Shanshan Li","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Due to information asymmetry, consumers often rely on reference freshness when purchasing fresh products online. We employ blockchain technology to address this issue and enhance transparency in the fresh product supply chain. Specifically, using product freshness and goodwill as state variables, we develop a fresh product supply chain model involving a supplier and an e-commerce platform, based on differential game theory. By comparing traditional supply chain models with those utilizing blockchain technology, this study reveals that blockchain implementation encourages suppliers to increase their freshness-keeping efforts during distribution. Meanwhile, the e-commerce platform may reduce its advertising efforts. This strategic shift can result in a higher long-term equilibrium freshness compared to scenarios without blockchain implementation. Additionally, the research demonstrates that goodwill significantly improves when blockchain investment efficiency reaches a sufficient threshold. However, the study also highlights how reference freshness can lower the level of blockchain traceability. These findings provide valuable insights into the application of blockchain in managing fresh products on e-commerce platforms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 124040"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143445186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Hesitation at increasing integration: The feasibility of Norway expanding cross-border renewable electricity interconnection to support European decarbonisation

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123917

Benjamin Ronald Silvester

{"title":"Hesitation at increasing integration: The feasibility of Norway expanding cross-border renewable electricity interconnection to support European decarbonisation","authors":"Benjamin Ronald Silvester","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123917","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123917","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Norway is rich in renewable energy resources and exports a significant amount of electricity cross-border. By expanding its exports, Norway could play a crucial role in balancing the growing share of renewables in Europe's energy systems. This article therefore examines the feasibility of Norway expanding its electricity interconnection to support European decarbonisation efforts over the coming decades. To support the analysis, a techno-economic-political feasibility (TEPF) framework for assessing the feasibility of specified transition scenarios is proposed. The Norwegian context is explored through key developments such as the rejection of the 1400 MW NorthConnect cable in 2020 and the effects of Europe's energy crisis (2021−2023), alongside Russia's invasion of Ukraine (2022-), on the electricity market. While technological and economic factors are significant, such as grid reinforcement and investments in new generation capacities, political concerns pose the greatest limitations to increasing interconnection. These challenges revolve around debates over the ownership of key energy infrastructure, concerns over sovereignty and the influence of the European Union, uncertainty surrounding future energy demand, risks to energy security, the impact of market coupling on electricity prices, and the uneven distribution of revenues. Collectively, these concerns underpin Norway's hesitation to increase integration with other states, representing key barriers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 123917"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143430098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Shaping the future through developing and managing breakthrough innovations: A new conceptual framework

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124039

Kenneth G. Huang , Yu-Shan Su , Jin Chen , Yuya Kajikawa

{"title":"Shaping the future through developing and managing breakthrough innovations: A new conceptual framework","authors":"Kenneth G. Huang , Yu-Shan Su , Jin Chen , Yuya Kajikawa","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Breakthrough innovations and technologies have gained increasing attention and have the potential to contribute to the development of a better society. Important breakthrough innovations and emerging technologies include fifth generation (5G) telecommunications technologies, artificial intelligence (AI), internet of things, digital platforms and businesses, autonomous vehicles, blockchain, e-payment/e-commerce technologies, and renewable energies. By reviewing recent papers published in <em>Technological Forecasting and Social Change</em>, this study proposes a novel conceptual framework for the development and design of such breakthrough technologies. There are three levels in this pyramidal framework: (i) exploring and identifying breakthrough innovations and emerging technologies; (ii) analyzing and managing breakthrough technological innovations and their innovation ecosystems; (iii) synthesizing and strategizing breakthrough innovations such as through digital platforms and businesses. This study makes two important contributions. First, by reviewing a set of coherent studies that shed light on the theoretical and empirical boundaries of research and knowledge in this area, this study pushes these boundaries with the goal of advancing the development and management of breakthrough innovations. Second, this study proposes a novel, integrative conceptual framework which encompasses different levels of activities associated with breakthrough innovations which could help develop and manage breakthrough innovations for the society of tomorrow.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 124039"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143436525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Critical successes factors for the adoption of additive manufacturing: Integrated impact for circular economy model

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124041

Javed Aslam , Aqeela Saleem , Kee-hung Lai , Yun Bae Kim

{"title":"Critical successes factors for the adoption of additive manufacturing: Integrated impact for circular economy model","authors":"Javed Aslam , Aqeela Saleem , Kee-hung Lai , Yun Bae Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124041","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Additive manufacturing (AM) or three-dimensional (3D) printing is an emerging technology shaping the manufacturing industry, offering performance improvement opportunities for society and the economy. AM supports the circular economy (CE) by enabling sustainable consumption and production. This study identifies factors of performance expectancy, effort expectancy, facilitating conditions, social influence, environmental sustainability, social sustainability, technical efficacy, and government support to determine the adoption of AM with survey data collected from 487 managers of manufacturing enterprises. The study proposed a theoretical framework that integrates the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) and the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE), providing valuable insight that can guide future research and inform decision-making in the industry. The study revealed that identified critical success factors have significantly influenced AM implementation. Furthermore, how AM adoption supports the implementation of CE, a new production and consumption model promoting sustainable growth. The study guides the managers in the connection between the AM and CE models and suggests implementing CE practices as an integral part of their AM adoption strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 124041"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143422420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Key enablers for energy firms in implementing the SDGs: Lessons based on a resource-based view approach

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124011

Josep Llach , Erola Palau-Pinyana , Linan Lei , Jordi Perramon

{"title":"Key enablers for energy firms in implementing the SDGs: Lessons based on a resource-based view approach","authors":"Josep Llach , Erola Palau-Pinyana , Linan Lei , Jordi Perramon","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Considering the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, this paper explores the critical role of the energy sector in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Employing a resource-based view perspective, this study investigates the enablers that facilitate SDGs implementation within global energy firms, distinguishing between renewable energy and fossil fuel firms. By means of an empirical analysis using the Refinitiv Eikon database, covering 522 firms across the fossil fuel and renewable energy sectors, Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling and Qualitative Comparative Analysis are used to understand the enablers that explain the implementation of SDGs in this industry. Our findings indicate significant differences between renewable energy and fossil fuel firms in relation to the effectiveness of enablers, underscoring the complexity of implementing SDGs in the energy sector. This study contributes to the theoretical understanding of how energy firms can leverage their resources and capabilities to align with the 2030 Agenda, offering insights for policymakers and practitioners aiming to support the transition of the energy sector towards sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 124011"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143422422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Designing electric mobility solutions: A dynamic capability model

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124037

Eduardo Zancul , Christoph Deutskens , Kai Kreisköther , Heiner Heimes , Achim Kampker

{"title":"Designing electric mobility solutions: A dynamic capability model","authors":"Eduardo Zancul , Christoph Deutskens , Kai Kreisköther , Heiner Heimes , Achim Kampker","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Advances in transportation electrification have been transforming the mobility sector. Changes in energy sources, powertrains, and the increasing role of software and services have opened opportunities for novel solutions and increased competition. Consequently, companies seek to enhance and streamline product development for electric vehicles (EVs). However, research on vehicle electrification from the perspective of innovation management remains scarce. Previous studies predominantly adopted a conceptual approach with limited empirical evidence or are restricted to single-case research, leaving a gap in comprehensive, empirically grounded analyses of EV product design process. We conducted a qualitative multiple-case study employing a dynamic capability (DC) foundation, as it is well-suited to the ongoing evolution of the mobility industry. Prior studies have applied DCs to analyze mobility electrification at the market level, while a deeper understanding of product innovation is still needed. This study aimed to fill this gap by identifying, systematizing, and discussing emerging patterns in the development of electric mobility solutions. The results include a DC model for designing electric mobility solutions, consisting of ten capabilities organized into four aggregate dimensions: external perspectives, uncertainty management, synchronization, and systems engineering. Another result is a detailed description of how companies are developing electric mobility solutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 124037"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143395911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mitigating safety challenges in human-robot collaboration: The role of human competence 减轻人机协作中的安全挑战：人类能力的作用

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124022

Kyungran Jung, Jae-Suk Yang

{"title":"Mitigating safety challenges in human-robot collaboration: The role of human competence","authors":"Kyungran Jung, Jae-Suk Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The integration of collaborative robots (cobots) into manufacturing has facilitated the development of flexible and intelligent factories. However, safety concerns emerge when humans and cobots operate in close proximity within shared spaces. This study examines the impact of cobot adoption on industrial injuries and the role of human competence in mitigating these risks. Drawing on data from South Korea's manufacturing sector, a global leader in robot deployment, our empirical analysis reveals that firms using cobots experience a rise in industrial accidents. The proportion of long-term employees and job rotation reduces injury rates, while multifunctional training correlates with an increase in injuries. To minimize cobot-related workplace injuries, we recommend securing skilled personnel, fostering competence through strategic task rotations, and implementing targeted training programs. These findings highlight the importance of a socio-technical systems perspective to address the complex interactions between technology, human factors, and organizational dynamics in workplace safety. This study also provides practical implications for enhancing human competence to reduce human errors and prevent cobot-related accidents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 124022"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143395912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Blockchain technologies adoption in healthcare: Overcoming barriers amid the hype cycle to enhance patient care

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124031

Usharani Hareesh Govindarajan , Gagan Narang , Dhiraj Kumar Singh , Vinay Surendra Yadav

{"title":"Blockchain technologies adoption in healthcare: Overcoming barriers amid the hype cycle to enhance patient care","authors":"Usharani Hareesh Govindarajan , Gagan Narang , Dhiraj Kumar Singh , Vinay Surendra Yadav","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Blockchain technologies are increasingly recognized as a transformative force across industries, offering potential solutions for information management, data security, and operational efficiency improvement. However, integration into the healthcare sector faces significant barriers, ranging from technical challenges to organizational resistance. In this study, a methodology is proposed that examines these critical barriers through a comprehensive analysis of 3265 academic papers and derives actionable solutions from 1566 patents published between 2016 and 2023. This approach bridges the gap between identifying challenges and implementing solutions. Using the “Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA)”, twelve critical adoption challenges are analyzed, while Top2Vec-based topic modeling identifies innovations that best address the ranked barriers. In addition to this, the proposed ‘healthcare ecosphere’ knowledge map serves as a comprehensive tool to analyze key stakeholders, their interactions, and the alignment of adoption barriers in solution spaces. The findings show that innovations in blockchain technologies are heavily concentrated in areas such as data security and application functionalities, whereas other critical domains—such as consensus mechanisms, governance, and regulatory frameworks—remain underexplored, pointing to opportunities for growth and development. The mapping of barriers to solutions provides practical guidance for healthcare providers, policymakers, and technologists seeking to implement the blockchain technologies effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 124031"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143387747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Technology yields spoils: The impact of digitalization on innovation value appropriation 技术产生战利品：数字化对创新价值占有的影响

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124012

Yao Dong , Yuhuan Xia , Xin Qi

引用次数: 0