Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第7页

Enhancing economic cycle forecasting based on interpretable machine learning and news narrative sentiment 基于可解释性机器学习和新闻叙事情绪的经济周期预测

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124094

Weixin Sun , Yong Wang , Li Zhang , Xihui Haviour Chen , Yen Hai Hoang

{"title":"Enhancing economic cycle forecasting based on interpretable machine learning and news narrative sentiment","authors":"Weixin Sun , Yong Wang , Li Zhang , Xihui Haviour Chen , Yen Hai Hoang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124094","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124094","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growing prevalence of uncertainty in global events poses significant challenges to economic cycle forecasting, emphasizing the need for more robust predictive models. This study addresses this gap by developing a novel forecasting framework that integrates multiple uncertainty indices to improve accuracy, stability, and interpretability, particularly during uncertainty shocks. To achieve this, several methodological innovations were implemented. First, news sentiment-based uncertainty indices were incorporated as candidate variables to capture uncertainty dynamics. Second, Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Bayesian LASSO) was employed for efficient variable selection, mitigating the curse of dimensionality in small samples. Third, the multi-objective Lichtenberg algorithm (MOLA) was applied to optimize the prediction window size, ensuring model robustness. Additionally, a MOLA-based extreme gradient boosting (MOLA-XGBoost) model was developed to fine-tune hyperparameters across dimensions of prediction accuracy, stability, and directional consistency. Finally, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) theory was used to enhance model interpretability. This study forecasts China's economic cycle using multiple indicators, demonstrating that the proposed approach consistently delivers accurate and robust predictions even under uncertainty shocks. The findings highlight the crucial role of uncertainty indices in improving economic forecasts, offering new insights and methodologies for predictive modeling in volatile environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124094"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143697971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing applications of emerging technologies in a data-driven era of sustainability and challenges 评估新兴技术在数据驱动的可持续发展和挑战时代的应用

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124110

Jose Ramon Saura , Nawazish Mirza , Raj V. Mahto

{"title":"Assessing applications of emerging technologies in a data-driven era of sustainability and challenges","authors":"Jose Ramon Saura , Nawazish Mirza , Raj V. Mahto","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124110","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124110","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This editorial highlights how emerging technologies and data-driven solutions can foster sustainability and address the current global challenges. Fourteen articles form the core of this Special Issue, analyzing diverse applications of advanced analytics, artificial intelligence, and digital platforms in domains such as supply chain optimization, sustainable entrepreneurship, algorithmic trading, financial inclusion, and e-governance. Each contribution underscores the transformative potential of these innovations to reduce resource consumption, enhance operational efficiencies, and yield significant social and environmental benefits. Major obstacles also emerge, ranging from limited infrastructure and ambiguous regulatory environments to ethical concerns over data privacy and algorithmic bias, which can impede the success of technology-driven interventions. The findings highlight multidisciplinary perspectives to demonstrate how collaborative efforts between industry, academia, and policymakers enable the development of context-specific and ethically sound strategies. The studies in this Special Issue move beyond mere technological performance metrics, emphasizing instead the broader societal implications that arise when disruptive innovations are introduced. Further research is needed to investigate the scalability of these solutions, ensure equitable access to data-driven tools, and integrate comprehensive ethical guidelines. The insights presented as the result of the papers that composed the Special Issue reveal the pivotal role of emerging technologies in shaping a resilient, inclusive, and truly sustainable future, illustrating how responsible innovation can address the current environmental and social challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124110"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143829506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Future-Ready Digital Skills in the AI Era: Bridging Market Demands and Student Expectations in the Accounting Profession 人工智能时代面向未来的数字技能：连接会计行业的市场需求和学生期望

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124105

Adriana Tiron-Tudor , Andreea Labaditis (Cordos) , Delia Deliu

{"title":"Future-Ready Digital Skills in the AI Era: Bridging Market Demands and Student Expectations in the Accounting Profession","authors":"Adriana Tiron-Tudor , Andreea Labaditis (Cordos) , Delia Deliu","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124105","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124105","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The ongoing digitalization of the accounting profession has exposed a significant gap between the skills demanded by employers and the self-assessed competencies of accounting graduates. This study conducts a three-part analysis to evaluate this skill gap. First, we identify key skills sought by the accounting labor market through a content analysis of LinkedIn job postings. Second, we assess prospective accounting graduates' valuation of a set of skills and perceptions of their own possession of said skills using a questionnaire. Third, we compare these datasets, revealing that students often do not give enough weight to skills related to Industry 5.0. The findings highlight substantial misalignment between market demands and student readiness, emphasizing the urgent need for curriculum adjustments. The study also introduces a novel skill category—cyber, digital, and technological skills—specific to Industry 5.0, bridging gaps in the existing literature. By comparing the skills employers want with the skills students think they want, this study provides helpful information that can be used to improve curriculum design, workforce training, and long-term planning. Integrating academic and industry perspectives aims to better equip the accounting profession for an AI-driven, Industry-5.0 future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124105"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of digital transformation on the efficiency of corporate resource allocation: Internal mechanisms and external environment 数字化转型对企业资源配置效率的影响：内部机制与外部环境

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124107

Li Jiang, Bin Li, Min Zhang

{"title":"The impact of digital transformation on the efficiency of corporate resource allocation: Internal mechanisms and external environment","authors":"Li Jiang, Bin Li, Min Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124107","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124107","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid unprecedented changes, firms face significant challenges, with digital transformation emerging as a key driver of strategic upgrading and sustainability. Based on organizational change theory and a corporate perspective, this paper empirically explores how digital transformation impacts resource allocation efficiency, using data from China's A-share listed companies between 2007 and 2022. The findings indicate that digital transformation significantly enhances resource allocation efficiency, though its impact varies. Mature firms, those with higher industry competitiveness, and firms in eastern China benefit more. Mechanism tests reveal that digital transformation improves resource allocation efficiency through technological innovation, process optimization, and strengthened internal control. Additionally, external factors such as microenvironmental and macroenvironmental uncertainty strengthen this effect. This study provides micro-level evidence regarding the effect of digital transformation on resource allocation efficiency and offers theoretical insights for governments and businesses to allocate resources more effectively in the digital era.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124107"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dealing with blame in digital ecosystems: The DAO failure in the Ethereum blockchain 数字生态系统中的责任处理：以太坊区块链中的DAO失败

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124096

Paula Ungureanu, Francesca Bellesia, Carlotta Cochis

{"title":"Dealing with blame in digital ecosystems: The DAO failure in the Ethereum blockchain","authors":"Paula Ungureanu, Francesca Bellesia, Carlotta Cochis","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124096","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124096","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates an emblematic case of innovation failure in blockchains as to understand how turbulent episodes of innovation failure shape the socio-technical organization of digital ecosystems. The Decentralized Autonomous Organization (<em>The DAO</em>) was an alternative model of organizational governance based on the Ethereum blockchain which registered one of the biggest successes in crowdfunding history and fell victim to one of the biggest hacks of the crypto world. Our empirical qualitative study combines interviews, archival and social media data to develop a grounded theory on how innovation failure was framed and dealt with in the Ethereum ecosystem. Our findings highlight the key role of blaming processes following innovation failures in digital ecosystems. Building on blame theory, we theorize about the interplay between human and technological blaming, and document a process called multi-distributed blaming whereby actors circle between multiple blames to an ecosystem's human and technological components, with multi-level (i.e., organizational and technological) consequences for the ecosystem. By adopting a socio-technical perspective, our findings contribute to blame theories, to the literature on digital ecosystems and to the scant research on blockchain organization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124096"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluating a university public engagement model through outreach projects: Professors' involvement and measurement implications 通过外展项目评估大学公共参与模式：教授的参与和测量含义

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124106

Ramón Andrés Ortiz-Rojo , Adonai José Lacruz

{"title":"Evaluating a university public engagement model through outreach projects: Professors' involvement and measurement implications","authors":"Ramón Andrés Ortiz-Rojo , Adonai José Lacruz","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124106","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The contribution of universities to society has been widely discussed; however, further exploration is needed regarding faculty engagement in this contribution and how such engagement can be measured. This study aims to empirically test a developed instrument and assess the fit of a model that examines professors' involvement in outreach projects as a means of contributing to the measurement of university public engagement. To this end, unlike previous studies, which mainly focus on the institutional perspective of university public engagement, this study centres on professors as its focal point. A Confirmatory Factor Analysis was conducted to assess the proposed model's validity. Data were analysed to evaluate the perceptions of professors involved in outreach projects from federal universities and federal institutes in Brazil. The results indicate that the Confirmatory Factor Analysis successfully validated the instrument (scale) developed and the model to measure university public engagement trough outreach projects professors' involvement. This study contributes to future research and practice by enhancing our understanding of professors' involvement in publicly engaged universities and its broader societal impact, offering a validated model for its measurement. In doing so, these findings offer new insights for university management and policymaking by systematically measuring professor-driven public engagement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124106"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do climate change policy instruments loom like the sword of Damocles over green technology independence to achieve green growth and sustainability in Europe? 气候变化政策工具是否像达摩克利斯之剑一样悬在欧洲实现绿色增长和可持续发展的绿色技术独立之上？

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124100

Nikos Chatzistamoulou , Andriana G. Dimakopoulou

{"title":"Do climate change policy instruments loom like the sword of Damocles over green technology independence to achieve green growth and sustainability in Europe?","authors":"Nikos Chatzistamoulou , Andriana G. Dimakopoulou","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We introduce a conceptual framework that synthesizes the European policy framework with country-specific capabilities to examine the impact of green policy tools and non-linear effects of eco-innovation progress on green technology independence within the EU-28 during the transformative period 2010–2019. Focusing on green technology independence allows us to delve into the key contributors of technological aspects of green growth. Despite its recognized significance in sustainability transition, this aspect remains vastly unexplored. We introduce a novel measure, the climate change mitigation policy rate to assess the extent of national action in addressing climate change, alongside climate taxes and environmental policy effectiveness, for the first time. Econometric results from panel quantile regressions indicate that green technology independence is prone to green taxation and climate change mitigation policy rate, across tiers. Findings indicate that green technology independence is affected by eco-innovation in a non-linear manner, as a U-shaped relationship is substantiated. Moreover, highly effective environmental policy negatively affects countries with low level of green technology independence. Policy-wise, a flexible policy framework is more conducive to promoting green technology independence than a rigid one, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach in policy making. This study contributes to SDGs 7, 9, 12 and 13.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124100"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Green financial instruments: Economic, technological, and legal cycles in the development of the energy transition period 绿色金融工具：能源转型发展中的经济、技术和法律周期

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124008

Weiyong Liu , Weiwen Liu

{"title":"Green financial instruments: Economic, technological, and legal cycles in the development of the energy transition period","authors":"Weiyong Liu , Weiwen Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The study is the initial effort to assess how technological developments impact green finance and how they both impact the sustainable development pillars. The study examines how good governance moderates this link and how two mediators—information sharing and technology penetration—operate in a cycle. Hayes reached the following conclusions after conducting his process analysis using the empirical data: technological innovations and green finance work together to promote sustainable development; good governance strengthens the relationship between technological innovations and green finance, especially when levels of technological innovations are low; and technological innovations have a positive impact on green finance through technological penetration both directly and indirectly. As a result, the research emphasizes the importance of getting money in an accessible and open technology manner. The result supports that dependable funding sources and collaborations are essential for advancing sustainable development. There are substantial policy ramifications when the minimum percentages of information coverage and technology penetration are reset to at least 6.87 % and 7.57 %, respectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124008"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Green finance, climate change, and economic cycles: Sustaining innovation in technology 绿色金融、气候变化和经济周期：持续的技术创新

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124055

Yonghao Guan , Ruoshui Bai , Yiqi He

{"title":"Green finance, climate change, and economic cycles: Sustaining innovation in technology","authors":"Yonghao Guan , Ruoshui Bai , Yiqi He","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124055","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124055","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Green technology has emerged due to the global emphasis on energy transition and the implementation of environmentally friendly, low-carbon measures brought about by adopting sustainable development objectives. The purpose of the article is to examine the relationship between innovations in green technology (GTI), the price of oil (OP), energy efficiency (CE), sustainable growth (SD), and the cycle of the economy (EC) using the time-dependent variable vectors automatic regression (TVP-VAR) connection technique. Research indicates that quick connections are essential for years of statistical analysis. The SD serves as the principal transmitter, whilst the EC functions as the central receiver. Furthermore, the examination of dynamic components reveals that the transmission of impact varies in both frequency and intensity across time. Substantial research indicates that GTI mitigates operational shocks and fosters long-term economic cooperation, which is attributable to increasing interconnection and prevailing trends. Nonetheless, contemporary events and sustainable development impact its efficacy in the short run. The primary achievement of this study is the integration of GTI, energy markets, economic cycles, and SD into a unified framework, along with a comprehensive knowledge of their interrelationships. The research examines short-term and long-term trends in market performance from a time-frequency domain perspective. The document finishes with other legislative proposals, including accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources and promoting the development of ecologically advantageous technology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124055"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Shifting attitudes and trust in AI: Influences on organizational AI adoption 转变对人工智能的态度和信任：对组织采用人工智能的影响

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124108

Sarah J. Daly, Anna Wiewiora, Greg Hearn

引用次数: 0