Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第6页

When policy makers want to protect investors in equity crowdfunding: Does it have regional implications? 当政策制定者想要保护股权众筹的投资者时：它是否具有区域性影响？

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124119

Aristogenis Lazos

引用次数: 0

Four archetypes of organizing corporate foresight at the intermediate maturity stage: A multiple case study 中期成熟阶段组织企业前瞻的四种原型：多案例研究

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124117

Matti Pihlajamaa, Pauli Komonen, Juuli Huuhanmäki, Sofi Kurki

{"title":"Four archetypes of organizing corporate foresight at the intermediate maturity stage: A multiple case study","authors":"Matti Pihlajamaa, Pauli Komonen, Juuli Huuhanmäki, Sofi Kurki","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124117","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Systematizing corporate foresight and integrating it into decision-making is critical to harness its value. However, many companies face challenges due to limited legitimacy, leading to scarce resources and a lack of commitment. Previous research has paid little attention to various ways to develop foresight capability, particularly at the intermediate stage of foresight maturity, where legitimacy is often lacking. We address this issue by exploring alternative organizing models to demonstrate foresight's value within firms. We conceptualize a corporate foresight system (CFS) comprising structures, roles, and activities for managing futures knowledge. Through a multiple case study of eleven large companies with intermediate foresight maturity, we identify four legitimate CFS archetypes: function-driven, independent foresight unit, executive team-led, and platform-based models. Using 43 semi-structured interviews, a pre-questionnaire survey, and workshops, we characterize these archetypes, examine their strengths and weaknesses and identify ‘windows of opportunity’ for further legitimation by extending and refining an initial CFS. Theoretically, we develop the concept of CFS, identify four CFS archetypes for companies with intermediate foresight maturity, and discuss how they contribute to demonstrating foresight's value within firms. Practically, our findings provide guidance for managers seeking to develop foresight capability by identifying approaches to legitimize foresight within an organization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124117"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143759949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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Shifting public perception: A longitudinal analysis of national and local media narratives on nuclear and wind energy in France 转变公众观念：法国国家和地方媒体对核能和风能的纵向分析

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124111

Frédéric Bally , Carine Sebi

引用次数: 0

How does science convergence influence technology convergence? Different impacts of science-push and technology-pull 科学趋同如何影响技术趋同？科学推动和技术拉动的不同影响

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124114

Keye Wu , Jianjun Sun , Jiajie Wang , Lele Kang

{"title":"How does science convergence influence technology convergence? Different impacts of science-push and technology-pull","authors":"Keye Wu , Jianjun Sun , Jiajie Wang , Lele Kang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the role of convergence in driving scientific and technological advances, understanding its early-stage evolution is crucial to revealing how scientific knowledge recombination influences technological development. This paper explores the initial transformation from science convergence (SC) to technology convergence (TC) by distinguishing two pathways: science-push (SP), where scientists “push” well-established interdisciplinary research into technological practice, and technology-pull (TP), where practitioners “pull” and recombine scientific knowledge from different scientific disciplines. Using granted patents and their scientific references in the pharmaceutical field, we measure each patent's science and technology convergence characteristics across three dimensions: variety, balance, and disparity. Empirical results confirm that diverse scientific knowledge recombination contributes to the emergence of convergent technologies through both pathways. Lower balance and higher disparity are key to the successful transfer from SC to TC. Among the two pathways, technology-pull proves to be more effective and robust, especially in triggering high-impact convergent technologies. Science convergent variety supports technology-pull transfers but hinders science-push transfers, as science convergence in the TP pathway serves more directly to address specific technological problems, whereas in the SP pathway, it may be incompatible with technological development. This study extends convergence process theory by introducing dual pathways from SC to TC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124114"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143759948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Artificial intelligence in higher education: Research notes from a longitudinal study 高等教育中的人工智能：一项纵向研究的研究笔记

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124115

Higor Leite

{"title":"Artificial intelligence in higher education: Research notes from a longitudinal study","authors":"Higor Leite","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124115","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124115","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has disrupted traditional educational approaches. Students are applying GenAI tools to access and create new content. However, the emergence of GenAI in higher education comes with caveats and academics and university administrators are learning to navigate this uncharted territory. GenAI is treated as a double-edged sword, with several benefits, such as innovation and productivity, but also drawbacks regarding ethics and academic misconduct. Therefore, our study aims to understand the impact of GenAI on students' experiences in the higher education ecosystem as students move to a new AI-enhanced job market. This research note article presents preliminary results from a 12-month longitudinal study with students interacting with GenAI. We conducted 35 semi-structured interviews and collected private diary entries (<em>n</em> = 108). Our results show six meaningful themes: Harnessing AI for Enhanced Academic Performance, AI Ethics and Trust Impact on Learning, GenAI as a Supplement to Human Work, Integration and Versatility of GenAI Tools, Balancing GenAI Limitations, and Navigating the AI Adoption Journey. The study also uses the transformative service research lens to present the transformative impact of GenAI in higher education. To contribute to practice and policymakers, we designed a research agenda to inform future studies on GenAI.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124115"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143739611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring the relationship between organizational agility, competitive intelligence and foresight as parts of an anticipatory system 探索作为预测系统组成部分的组织敏捷性、竞争情报和前瞻性之间的关系

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124112

Christophe Bisson , Jonathan Calof , Nabila Boukef

{"title":"Exploring the relationship between organizational agility, competitive intelligence and foresight as parts of an anticipatory system","authors":"Christophe Bisson , Jonathan Calof , Nabila Boukef","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124112","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124112","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper looks at three aspects of an anticipatory system -competitive intelligence and foresight as the sensory capacity and modeling part of the system and organizational agility which is seen in this paper as the adapting/acting part of an anticipatory system. CI and foresight (sensory capacity and modeling part of the system) are measured using five questions/variables. Agility (the adapting/acting part of the system) is measured using 12 variables. While individually and in pairs, these three areas (CI, foresight, agility) have been studied, they have not been studied collectively in the context of Robert Rosen's anticipatory system. Academic study's examining a relationship between organizational agility and anticipatory systems are absent from the literature, and there are few studies looking at CI, foresight, and agility. All these elements within an anticipatory system are absent in the literature. Data used was collected through a survey of SCIP members (Strategic Consortium of Intelligence Professionals, n.d.). Results suggest that organizational agility dimensions such as “rapidly react to emerging opportunities in markets” and “anticipate new business opportunities are statistically significantly correlated to CI and foresight. Thus, these elements of an anticipatory system appear to be related to each other.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124112"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143735059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

African green hydrogen uptake from the lens of African development and European energy security: A blessing or curse? 从非洲发展和欧洲能源安全的角度看非洲绿色氢吸收：是福还是祸？

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123974

Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada , Andrea Gatto , Nils Schäfer

{"title":"African green hydrogen uptake from the lens of African development and European energy security: A blessing or curse?","authors":"Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada , Andrea Gatto , Nils Schäfer","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123974","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123974","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present paper explores the perspectives on the rollout of green hydrogen in Africa from sectoral and macroeconomic viewpoints. It critically reviews the datasets projecting the costs of renewable hydrogen and the current state of the import/export market; besides, based on key scientific publications, trends, and gaps in the green hydrogen economy, fresh insights are detected through integrative review and scientometrics. Microeconomically founded scenario analyses are conducted, focusing on Africa. Hence, the study offers an outlook on the contribution of green hydrogen to African economic development. The inquiry finds that, due to economies of scale, green hydrogen production and exports will likely be concentrated in a few African countries that achieve competitive production costs relatively early. Additionally, cost considerations and the level of the development of democratic institutions will also play a crucial role in establishing renewable hydrogen export hubs in Africa. Assessment of the <span><span>IEA Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure Projects Database, updated in October 2023</span></span>, reveals that Egypt, Morocco, Namibia, and South Africa are the leading candidates for hydrogen production and exports from Africa. Consequently, the EU-driven expansion of global green hydrogen production centers in the 2020s and 2030s could result in a shift from petroleum dependence on the Middle East and Russia to hydrogen reliance on just a few African countries by the early 2040s. This deployment could conflict with European interests in fostering energy cooperation with Africa. Without development of comprehensive hydrogen value chains in Africa, green hydrogen sector risksperpetuating extractivism and insecurity, resulting in enclave-style renewable hydrogen industry and a “hydrogen-curse” that exacerbates African maldevelopment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 123974"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143714883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Artificial intelligence vs. public administrators: Public trust, efficiency, and tolerance for errors 人工智能与公共管理者：公众信任、效率和对错误的容忍度

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124102

Haixu Bao , Wenfei Liu , Zheng Dai

{"title":"Artificial intelligence vs. public administrators: Public trust, efficiency, and tolerance for errors","authors":"Haixu Bao , Wenfei Liu , Zheng Dai","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124102","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124102","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study develops and empirically examines an integrative systems framework of public trust in artificial intelligence (AI) in the public sector, grounded in Luhmann's theory of systemic trust. Through a methodologically rigorous survey experiment, we manipulated administrator/AI capabilities across computational-audit and conversational-advisory scenarios to investigate context-dependent trust dynamics. Findings reveal significant variation in public trust across usage contexts, with respondents demonstrating higher trust in AI for computational tasks, while preferring human administrators for conversational settings. Notably, our results challenge conventional assumptions about AI trust fragility, as evidence of AI mistakes did not engender disproportionate distrust relative to naturally imperfect humans. The study further demonstrates that improved efficiency can mitigate context-specific distrust stemming from AI errors in computational scenarios, though this effect was not observed in conversational contexts. By elucidating these nuanced, context-dependent dynamics of public trust towards algorithmic governance, this research contributes to both theoretical understanding and practical implementation. It provides policymakers with targeted, evidence-based guidance for cultivating appropriate trust when embedding AI technologies in the public sector through context-sensitive design approaches and governance practices. Future research should explore contingent formulations of public trust and its evolution across AI system lifecycles within diverse cultural and institutional environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124102"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143703986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unlocking the economic potential of Direct Air Capture technology: Insights from a component-based learning curve 释放直接空气捕获技术的经济潜力：来自基于组件的学习曲线的见解

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124109

Yi-Ming Wei , Song Peng , Jia-Ning Kang , Lan-Cui Liu , Yunlong Zhang , Bo Yang , Bi-Ying Yu , Hua Liao

{"title":"Unlocking the economic potential of Direct Air Capture technology: Insights from a component-based learning curve","authors":"Yi-Ming Wei , Song Peng , Jia-Ning Kang , Lan-Cui Liu , Yunlong Zhang , Bo Yang , Bi-Ying Yu , Hua Liao","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124109","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124109","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Direct air capture (DAC) technology is gaining increased attention for its flexibility and effectiveness in carbon removal. However, the high cost of DAC hinders the potential for emission reductions. We provide an approach to help evaluate these costs. To overcome the limitations of poor data quality, high technical complexity, and uncertainty in the cost forecasting of DAC techniques, we develop component-based learning curves based on four available DAC technologies (potassium hydroxide, monoethanolamine, solid amine, and bipolar membrane electrodialysis adsorbents). The results indicate that the capital cost learning rate ranges from 4.87 % to 11.02 % and is influenced by components like contactors and scrubbing towers. In contrast, the operational and maintenance cost learning rate ranges from 13.70 % to 20.61 %, with the key components being contactors and adsorbers. Upon reaching the “learning saturation point”, the levelized (US dollar) cost per ton of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) capture of the four techniques is projected to decline significantly to 56 % ($120/t CO<sub>2</sub>), 28 % ($253/t CO<sub>2</sub>), 23 % ($412/t CO<sub>2</sub>), and 25 % ($356/t CO<sub>2</sub>) of their initial values, respectively. Bayesian methods enhance learning rate reliability, and sensitivity analysis reveals energy price fluctuations significantly impact DAC costs. These insights support techno-economic modeling, climate assessments, and strategic DAC deployment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124109"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143697970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Residents' needs and perspectives on the European City of science: A study of Katowice 欧洲科学之城的居民需求与观点：卡托维兹的研究

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124103

Artur Strzelecki , Robert Wolny , Magdalena Jaciow , Monika Klimontowicz , Agata Austen

{"title":"Residents' needs and perspectives on the European City of science: A study of Katowice","authors":"Artur Strzelecki , Robert Wolny , Magdalena Jaciow , Monika Klimontowicz , Agata Austen","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124103","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124103","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The European City of Science (ECS) is a prestigious designation awarded by EuroScience to a city. The study employed a qualitative methodology, conducting four focus group interviews with 33 residents of Katowice to derive strategic directions for engaging residents in scientific processes and urban development. The findings indicate that residents perceive knowledge positively and stress the importance of its acquisition and expansion through various scientific events, including interactive exhibitions, city games, science centers, and cultural and sports events. The study results showed that most participants were unaware of the ECS Katowice 2024 initiative. Those who were aware had positive associations with the project. The results highlighted the importance of tailored communication strategies to enhance economic literacy and social engagement in science within the urban context. The findings provided valuable insights for city policymakers, aiding them in making informed decisions regarding investments in education, science, and innovation. The study highlights the role of participatory research methods in understanding public attitudes towards science and urban development, contributing to the broader discourse on science communication and public engagement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124103"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143703985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0