Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

Unveiling the key determinants of cleantech venture capital investment in India: A study using necessary condition and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis 揭示印度清洁技术风险投资的关键决定因素：基于必要条件和模糊集定性比较分析的研究

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124599

Sheena Rehman

{"title":"Unveiling the key determinants of cleantech venture capital investment in India: A study using necessary condition and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis","authors":"Sheena Rehman","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124599","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124599","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The climate change funding gap underscores the significance of venture capital as a pivotal source to propel the development of cleantech ventures in the fight against global warming. Consequently, comprehending the factors that influence cleantech venture capital investment (CTVCI) is essential for efficiently allocating resources and expediting the shift to a low-carbon economy. This study examines the influence of institutional governance, innovation, economic growth, environmental stringency, energy (oil price), stock market activity and investor sentiment on CTVCI in India from the period of 2002–2022. The Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) have been employed to enhance the complementarity of the findings based on their necessity and sufficiency. Results reveal that oil price, environmental stringency and investor sentiment are necessary and sufficient, with each component making distinct contributions of varied magnitudes to CTVCI. fsQCA identified eleven different configurations leading to high and low CTVCI. This groundbreaking study is the first to reveal the determinants required to achieve desired CTVCI levels. The study offers practical policy implications to various stakeholders on the interdependence and asymmetric causal links among determinants to increase as well as decrease the flow of CTVCI in the country.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124599"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Drivers and barriers to the adoption of wind assisted ship propulsion technologies: An organisational perspective 采用风力辅助船舶推进技术的驱动因素和障碍：一个组织的视角

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124559

Armand Djoumessi , Alessio Tei , Claudio Ferrari , Per Wide , Vendela Santén

{"title":"Drivers and barriers to the adoption of wind assisted ship propulsion technologies: An organisational perspective","authors":"Armand Djoumessi , Alessio Tei , Claudio Ferrari , Per Wide , Vendela Santén","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124559","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124559","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transition to sustainable maritime shipping will necessitate the uptake of various revamped and newly developed technological innovations. Among these, wind assisted ship propulsion technologies (WASPTs) are (r)emerging as a viable option. Understanding the drivers and barriers to their adoption is therefore critical for developing policies and business strategies to harness their potential. A key limitation of the extant literature on these drivers and barriers is their reliance on theoretical perspectives focused on factors external to organisations. The purpose of this paper is to provide a more comprehensive picture of the drivers and barriers to the adoption of WASPTs. A qualitative thematic analysis is applied to fourteen semi-structured interviews with senior stakeholders across the maritime sector. Guided by a systems theory lens, the analysis categorises drivers into internal, connecting, and external types, and barriers into behavioural, economic, organisational, and technological categories. The findings highlight that WASPTs adoption is primarily driven by progressive leadership, strategic alignment, and regulatory incentives, but is constrained by high investment costs, a conservative industry culture, and various operational and structural limitations. Based on this a conceptual model that highlights the role of internal organisational dynamics and inter-actor legitimacy pressures is developed. From a business perspective, a technology package approach emerged as a strategic solution for addressing the high cost of investment and payback time and return on investment (ROI) sensitivity barriers. It is also argued that designing policies built around progressive leaders rather targeting the whole industry could be more effective in accelerating WASPTs adoption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124559"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mid-air haptics for automotive HUDs: A sketch anticipation and design fiction study 汽车hud的空中触觉：草图预测与设计研究

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124567

Orestis Georgiou , Roberto Montano , Dario Pittera , William Frier , Stephen Hughes , Patrick Haggard , Marianna Obrist , Patricia Cornelio

{"title":"Mid-air haptics for automotive HUDs: A sketch anticipation and design fiction study","authors":"Orestis Georgiou , Roberto Montano , Dario Pittera , William Frier , Stephen Hughes , Patrick Haggard , Marianna Obrist , Patricia Cornelio","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124567","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124567","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Innovations in the automotive industry, such as autonomous driving, AI assistants, head-up displays, and mid-air haptic touchless interactions, promise transformative benefits but may also introduce unanticipated risks and ethical concerns. To explore these potential challenges, we conducted a multi-stage study: first, we engaged 27 engineers specializing in touchless and automotive systems to envision future applications of mid-air haptics and head-up displays. Insights from this anticipatory design fiction informed the creation of high-fidelity storyboard sketches depicting six hypothetical scenarios. Using these storyboards and a custom questionnaire, we then surveyed 135 drivers across nine countries to assess their views on technology acceptance, interface usability, and responsible innovation. Results revealed significant demographic variability, alongside a dual sentiment: while drivers express enthusiasm for technological integration, they also voice concerns about safety, user control, and privacy. Our findings not only inform safer and more user-centered automotive innovation but also offer a multimodal framework for evaluating and guiding emerging technologies across diverse fields.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124567"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Forecasting emerging job opportunities using the subject-action-object approach 使用主体-行动-客体方法预测新出现的工作机会

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124536

Khadijeh Mousavi , Sepideh Fahimifar , Amir Salar Vanaki

{"title":"Forecasting emerging job opportunities using the subject-action-object approach","authors":"Khadijeh Mousavi , Sepideh Fahimifar , Amir Salar Vanaki","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124536","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124536","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid advancement of technology is transforming employment, generating both opportunities and challenges for workers. Anticipating emerging job trends is essential to minimize the risks to the future of work. This study forecasts occupations expected to experience growth in the near future by applying the subject–action–object (SAO) approach, a text-mining technique that addresses the limitations of the co-word method. Using job task descriptions from the O*NET database, we extracted SAO structures and constructed a network that was analyzed using social network analysis. The findings reveal that the “Health” and “Education” career clusters are likely to dominate emerging job markets. Notably, occupations such as <strong>“</strong>Child, Family, and School Social Workers,” “Media Programming Directors,” “Solar Energy Installation Managers,” and “Microbiologists” are projected to generate significant employment opportunities in the coming years. Additionally, emerging topics, including data retention, legal issues, customer relations, art and media, the beauty industry, and food services, will play critical roles in shaping future job markets. The study also suggests that career networks will trend toward convergence, while tasks will show greater divergence. These findings are supported by driving factors, including global population aging, increasing healthcare demands, technological advancements, climate change, the transition to alternative energy, the growth of remote work, and psychological impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124536"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Responsible AI in knowledge creation: An exploration of generative AI's opportunities and risks 知识创造中的负责任人工智能：生成式人工智能的机遇与风险探索

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124570

Shuanping Dai , Qinqian Li , Shizhen (Jasper) Jia , Gang Liu , Tomáš Kincl , Nick Hajli

{"title":"Responsible AI in knowledge creation: An exploration of generative AI's opportunities and risks","authors":"Shuanping Dai , Qinqian Li , Shizhen (Jasper) Jia , Gang Liu , Tomáš Kincl , Nick Hajli","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124570","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124570","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the transformative potential and inherent challenges of Generative AI in the domain of knowledge creation and management, using the Socialization, Externalization, Combination, and Internalization (SECI) model as an analytical framework. Our qualitative research, based on content analysis from expert opinions, reveals that the integration of Generative AI in knowledge processes is inevitable and offers substantial productivity enhancements. These include providing diverse expression channels, simulating personalized interactions, and facilitating cross-disciplinary communication. However, significant risks accompany these benefits, such as threats to data security, personal privacy, and intellectual property, as well as issues of misinformation, data bias, and reduced human cognitive engagement. The findings extend the SECI model by highlighting specific challenges posed by AI technologies at each knowledge creation stage: socialization, externalization, combination, and internalization. The study underscores the necessity of a balanced approach, integrating technological, ethical, and socio-cultural perspectives to evaluate AI's impact comprehensively. Our research contributes to the theoretical understanding of AI's role in knowledge management and offers actionable strategies for its ethical and effective implementation, emphasizing the importance of interdisciplinary approaches and continuous regulatory adaptation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124570"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fostering well-being in Industry 5.0 through managerial behaviours and enabling technologies 通过管理行为和使能技术促进工业5.0的福祉

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124600

Michela Piccarozzi , Federica Caboni , Roberto Bruni

{"title":"Fostering well-being in Industry 5.0 through managerial behaviours and enabling technologies","authors":"Michela Piccarozzi , Federica Caboni , Roberto Bruni","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124600","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124600","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Industry 5.0 represents the latest industrial evolution, building on the foundations of Industry 4.0 while shifting the focus towards humanity, sustainability and resilience. In this paradigm, enabling technologies are redefined as tools that support human well-being first and business productivity second. Despite its growing relevance, the management literature remains fragmented on how specific managerial behaviours and technologies effectively support these new objectives. To address this gap, this research adopts a systematic literature review and thematic analysis to identify and systematise well-being-centred managerial behaviours and enabling technologies that facilitate the transition to Industry 5.0. The results reveal a relationship between managerial behaviours and enabling technological that can promote well-being-oriented innovation. A key contribution of this study is the conceptualisation of a new value-creation sequence: human well-being serves as the primary driver of productivity, ultimately leading to sustainable competitiveness. These findings offer important theoretical and managerial implications, providing an integrated framework that treats technology as a consequence of human-centred design. Finally, the study outlines future research paths to promote the development of a worker-centred industrial system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124600"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advancing corporate green innovation through science: The role of freedom of expression and NGOs 通过科学推动企业绿色创新：言论自由和非政府组织的作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124577

Imane El Ouadghiri , Jonathan Peillex , Federico Platania , Celina Toscano Hernandez

引用次数: 0

Imported intermediates and firm performance: A difference-in-differences analysis of matched Indian manufacturing firms 进口中间体与企业绩效：匹配的印度制造企业的差异分析

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124571

Nitika Arneja, Chandan Sharma

{"title":"Imported intermediates and firm performance: A difference-in-differences analysis of matched Indian manufacturing firms","authors":"Nitika Arneja, Chandan Sharma","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124571","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124571","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Firm-level evidence on the impact of imported intermediate inputs in India remains limited, and the combined use of propensity score matching with difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) has not previously been applied in this context. Using data on Indian manufacturing firms from 2002 to 2019, this study examines how imported inputs affect three key outcomes: technological capability, export intensity, and financial performance. By comparing importing firms with matched non-importers, the analysis provides evidence of performance differences linked to the use of foreign intermediates. The findings show that firms importing inputs perform better than non-importers across all three measures. Export performance and technological capability improve soon after firms begin importing, while financial gains take longer to appear but turn out to be the greatest. The results remain consistent across a range of robustness checks, including placebo tests, alternative matching methods, and the entropy balancing approach. Overall, the evidence supports the learning-by-importing hypothesis, highlighting that access to imported inputs can act as a catalyst for broader performance gains. In light of the growing global shift toward protectionism and the long-standing policy focus on export promotion, the study emphasizes the need for balanced trade strategies that also recognize the critical role of imports.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124571"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Patent strategies in the age of FinTech: Understanding IP management practices and open innovation across financial institutions 金融科技时代的专利战略：理解金融机构的知识产权管理实践和开放式创新

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124581

Milad Armani Dehghani , Alexander Brauneis , Dionysios Karavidas

{"title":"Patent strategies in the age of FinTech: Understanding IP management practices and open innovation across financial institutions","authors":"Milad Armani Dehghani , Alexander Brauneis , Dionysios Karavidas","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124581","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124581","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Purpose</h3><div>This study examines the changing role of patent strategies within the financial sector, with a particular focus on the contrasting approaches of traditional banking institutions and FinTech firms and how these strategies shape innovation and competitive advantage in the context of ongoing technological and regulatory transformation.</div></div><div><h3>Design</h3><div>The analysis draws on a longitudinal dataset of patent filings from 2000 to 2023, covering six leading global banks, five major credit card companies, and four prominent FinTech firms. Patent indicators such as filing volume, forward citations, jurisdictional dispersion, and ownership transitions are integrated with firm-level financial data, including profitability metrics and structural characteristics, to examine how IP strategies relate to firm performance.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The results reveal divergent IP strategies between incumbents and FinTech entrants. Traditional banks primarily employ defensive IP tactics, whereas FinTech firms pursue more exploratory and innovation-driven patenting activity. The analysis also shows that inter-firm collaborations, joint ventures, and acquisitions are increasingly used as strategic tools to strengthen IP assets and enhance competitive positioning.</div></div><div><h3>Implications</h3><div>The findings underscore the strategic significance of IP management in the financial sector, not only as a protective mechanism but also as a way to create value, support partnerships, and strengthen competitive advantage. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of how financial institutions deploy IP strategically to drive innovation and growth in a changing market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124581"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sensemaking and AI: Unraveling individuals' reactions to the black box in a three-study investigation 意义制造和人工智能：在一项三项研究调查中揭示个人对黑匣子的反应

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124491

Domenico di Prisco , Silvia Dello Russo

{"title":"Sensemaking and AI: Unraveling individuals' reactions to the black box in a three-study investigation","authors":"Domenico di Prisco , Silvia Dello Russo","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124491","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124491","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies promise to transform how people perform tasks and make decisions within organizations. Yet, their impact on human reasoning processes remains poorly understood. When encountering an unexpected AI suggestion, individuals may either attempt to understand the reasoning behind it or blindly accept or reject it. What drives these different reactions, however, remains unexplored. Unpacking these factors is essential to advance our understanding of augmentation and prevent major decision-making failures. This study addresses this gap through three experimental studies. In study 1 we find that, when performing a task, the unexpected failure of one's own frames increases the likelihood of individuals blindly accepting AI suggestions and effortfully trying to explain them. In study 2 we shed light on the underlying reasons for the results, by analyzing qualitative insights. We find that the unexpected failure of frames promotes “problematization pivoting”, a phenomenon wherein individuals anchor their reasoning to opaque AI suggestions ignoring other available cues. In study 3, we add evidence of potential negative performance implications associated with effects documented before. Overall, these findings contribute to the literature on human-AI augmentation and sensemaking theory, while also alerting managers and policymakers on the perils associated with AI use.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124491"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0