Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

What drives SME export intensity in transition economies? The role of infrastructure, digitalisation and innovation capabilities

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124123

Jude Edeh , Adeniyi D. Olarewaju , Samuel Yaw Kusi

{"title":"What drives SME export intensity in transition economies? The role of infrastructure, digitalisation and innovation capabilities","authors":"Jude Edeh , Adeniyi D. Olarewaju , Samuel Yaw Kusi","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124123","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124123","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The role of macro-level factors has been identified as pivotal to firm performance. Yet, there is little focus on how home-country infrastructure influences the export performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in transition countries. This paper addresses this concern by arguing that the relevance of home-country infrastructure on SME export intensity depends on the dynamic interactions of enterprise capabilities. We empirically test this assertion with a sample of 8048 SMEs from 16 transition economies. Using the Structural equation modelling technique, we find that home-country infrastructure does not promote SME export intensity. Additionally, we find that home-country infrastructure dampens the digitalisation of export-oriented SMEs. Moreover, we provide evidence suggesting that SMEs can benefit from digitalisation by leveraging innovation capabilities in their export strategies. The findings of this study strongly indicate that policy actions targeting infrastructure improvement in transition economies will enhance SME capabilities and export performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124123"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143785147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A multi-criterion decision making method for renewable energy storage technology selection with incomplete evaluation information

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124116

Huchang Liao, Xiaofang Li

{"title":"A multi-criterion decision making method for renewable energy storage technology selection with incomplete evaluation information","authors":"Huchang Liao, Xiaofang Li","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Selecting renewable energy storage technologies (RESTs) requires experts with knowledge in different fields to evaluate RESTs under different criteria. However, specialists are usually proficient in a particular field and thus are difficult to provide complete evaluation information of alternatives on all criteria. Besides, different decision makers (DMs) have different risk attitudes on potential risks and benefits. This study proposes a multi-criterion decision making model that considers the causality between criteria, the incomplete evaluation information from specialists, and different risk attitudes of DMs. First, the DEMATEL is used to analyze the causality between criteria and elicit criteria weights, and the interpretive structural modeling is utilized to construct the hierarchical relationship diagram of criteria. Based on the causality of criteria, a Bayesian network is constructed to infer the missing evaluation information of alternatives under the criteria unfamiliar to specialists. Alternatives are then ranked by combining the improved cumulative prospect theory and the combined compromise solution method. An illustrative example is given to validate the applicability of the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis and simulation experiment are given to explore the influence of DMs' risk attitudes to loss and gain on the ranking of alternatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124116"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143769090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

When policy makers want to protect investors in equity crowdfunding: Does it have regional implications?

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124119

Aristogenis Lazos

引用次数: 0

5G is not just another G: A review of the 5G business model and ecosystem challenges

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124121

Mattia Magnaghi , Antonio Ghezzi , Andrea Rangone

{"title":"5G is not just another G: A review of the 5G business model and ecosystem challenges","authors":"Mattia Magnaghi , Antonio Ghezzi , Andrea Rangone","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124121","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124121","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The fifth generation of mobile communications (5G) is a revolutionary phenomenon, which could deeply change the competitive landscape for wireless services. While 5G is a hot technological topic, there is a dearth of research that specifically explores 5G deployment challenges from a strategic perspective. Such limitation calls for a study, whose aim is to: (i) take stock of the current debate on 5G, (ii) critically review the extant literature with a focus on the theoretical streams employed to investigate the phenomenon from a strategic perspective, (iii) position the 5G research at the intersection of technology and business by identifying and classifying challenges faced by both Mobile Network Operators and other actors in the 5G ecosystem; and (iv) propose relevant future research avenues for theory and practice. To comply with such objectives, we conducted a systematic search and a review on a sample of 23 journal articles concerning the major strategic challenges the 5G ecosystem's stakeholders must face. From a theoretical perspective, we offer a systematic study of the strategic implications of 5G from a holistic viewpoint, without focusing on a specific use case. We analyse the theories currently adopted to investigate the phenomenon, while proposing alternative ones that could generate new research questions. From a practitioner's perspective, our study aims to increase actors' strategic awareness of such technological innovation's implications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124121"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143759950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Four archetypes of organizing corporate foresight at the intermediate maturity stage: A multiple case study

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124117

Matti Pihlajamaa, Pauli Komonen, Juuli Huuhanmäki, Sofi Kurki

{"title":"Four archetypes of organizing corporate foresight at the intermediate maturity stage: A multiple case study","authors":"Matti Pihlajamaa, Pauli Komonen, Juuli Huuhanmäki, Sofi Kurki","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124117","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Systematizing corporate foresight and integrating it into decision-making is critical to harness its value. However, many companies face challenges due to limited legitimacy, leading to scarce resources and a lack of commitment. Previous research has paid little attention to various ways to develop foresight capability, particularly at the intermediate stage of foresight maturity, where legitimacy is often lacking. We address this issue by exploring alternative organizing models to demonstrate foresight's value within firms. We conceptualize a corporate foresight system (CFS) comprising structures, roles, and activities for managing futures knowledge. Through a multiple case study of eleven large companies with intermediate foresight maturity, we identify four legitimate CFS archetypes: function-driven, independent foresight unit, executive team-led, and platform-based models. Using 43 semi-structured interviews, a pre-questionnaire survey, and workshops, we characterize these archetypes, examine their strengths and weaknesses and identify ‘windows of opportunity’ for further legitimation by extending and refining an initial CFS. Theoretically, we develop the concept of CFS, identify four CFS archetypes for companies with intermediate foresight maturity, and discuss how they contribute to demonstrating foresight's value within firms. Practically, our findings provide guidance for managers seeking to develop foresight capability by identifying approaches to legitimize foresight within an organization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124117"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143759949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Shifting public perception: A longitudinal analysis of national and local media narratives on nuclear and wind energy in France

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124111

Frédéric Bally , Carine Sebi

引用次数: 0

How does science convergence influence technology convergence? Different impacts of science-push and technology-pull

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124114

Keye Wu , Jianjun Sun , Jiajie Wang , Lele Kang

{"title":"How does science convergence influence technology convergence? Different impacts of science-push and technology-pull","authors":"Keye Wu , Jianjun Sun , Jiajie Wang , Lele Kang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the role of convergence in driving scientific and technological advances, understanding its early-stage evolution is crucial to revealing how scientific knowledge recombination influences technological development. This paper explores the initial transformation from science convergence (SC) to technology convergence (TC) by distinguishing two pathways: science-push (SP), where scientists “push” well-established interdisciplinary research into technological practice, and technology-pull (TP), where practitioners “pull” and recombine scientific knowledge from different scientific disciplines. Using granted patents and their scientific references in the pharmaceutical field, we measure each patent's science and technology convergence characteristics across three dimensions: variety, balance, and disparity. Empirical results confirm that diverse scientific knowledge recombination contributes to the emergence of convergent technologies through both pathways. Lower balance and higher disparity are key to the successful transfer from SC to TC. Among the two pathways, technology-pull proves to be more effective and robust, especially in triggering high-impact convergent technologies. Science convergent variety supports technology-pull transfers but hinders science-push transfers, as science convergence in the TP pathway serves more directly to address specific technological problems, whereas in the SP pathway, it may be incompatible with technological development. This study extends convergence process theory by introducing dual pathways from SC to TC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124114"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143759948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Artificial intelligence in higher education: Research notes from a longitudinal study

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124115

Higor Leite

{"title":"Artificial intelligence in higher education: Research notes from a longitudinal study","authors":"Higor Leite","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124115","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124115","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has disrupted traditional educational approaches. Students are applying GenAI tools to access and create new content. However, the emergence of GenAI in higher education comes with caveats and academics and university administrators are learning to navigate this uncharted territory. GenAI is treated as a double-edged sword, with several benefits, such as innovation and productivity, but also drawbacks regarding ethics and academic misconduct. Therefore, our study aims to understand the impact of GenAI on students' experiences in the higher education ecosystem as students move to a new AI-enhanced job market. This research note article presents preliminary results from a 12-month longitudinal study with students interacting with GenAI. We conducted 35 semi-structured interviews and collected private diary entries (<em>n</em> = 108). Our results show six meaningful themes: Harnessing AI for Enhanced Academic Performance, AI Ethics and Trust Impact on Learning, GenAI as a Supplement to Human Work, Integration and Versatility of GenAI Tools, Balancing GenAI Limitations, and Navigating the AI Adoption Journey. The study also uses the transformative service research lens to present the transformative impact of GenAI in higher education. To contribute to practice and policymakers, we designed a research agenda to inform future studies on GenAI.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124115"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143739611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring the relationship between organizational agility, competitive intelligence and foresight as parts of an anticipatory system 探索作为预测系统组成部分的组织敏捷性、竞争情报和前瞻性之间的关系

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124112

Christophe Bisson , Jonathan Calof , Nabila Boukef

{"title":"Exploring the relationship between organizational agility, competitive intelligence and foresight as parts of an anticipatory system","authors":"Christophe Bisson , Jonathan Calof , Nabila Boukef","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124112","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124112","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper looks at three aspects of an anticipatory system -competitive intelligence and foresight as the sensory capacity and modeling part of the system and organizational agility which is seen in this paper as the adapting/acting part of an anticipatory system. CI and foresight (sensory capacity and modeling part of the system) are measured using five questions/variables. Agility (the adapting/acting part of the system) is measured using 12 variables. While individually and in pairs, these three areas (CI, foresight, agility) have been studied, they have not been studied collectively in the context of Robert Rosen's anticipatory system. Academic study's examining a relationship between organizational agility and anticipatory systems are absent from the literature, and there are few studies looking at CI, foresight, and agility. All these elements within an anticipatory system are absent in the literature. Data used was collected through a survey of SCIP members (Strategic Consortium of Intelligence Professionals, n.d.). Results suggest that organizational agility dimensions such as “rapidly react to emerging opportunities in markets” and “anticipate new business opportunities are statistically significantly correlated to CI and foresight. Thus, these elements of an anticipatory system appear to be related to each other.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124112"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143735059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

African green hydrogen uptake from the lens of African development and European energy security: A blessing or curse?

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123974

Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada , Andrea Gatto , Nils Schäfer

{"title":"African green hydrogen uptake from the lens of African development and European energy security: A blessing or curse?","authors":"Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada , Andrea Gatto , Nils Schäfer","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123974","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.123974","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present paper explores the perspectives on the rollout of green hydrogen in Africa from sectoral and macroeconomic viewpoints. It critically reviews the datasets projecting the costs of renewable hydrogen and the current state of the import/export market; besides, based on key scientific publications, trends, and gaps in the green hydrogen economy, fresh insights are detected through integrative review and scientometrics. Microeconomically founded scenario analyses are conducted, focusing on Africa. Hence, the study offers an outlook on the contribution of green hydrogen to African economic development. The inquiry finds that, due to economies of scale, green hydrogen production and exports will likely be concentrated in a few African countries that achieve competitive production costs relatively early. Additionally, cost considerations and the level of the development of democratic institutions will also play a crucial role in establishing renewable hydrogen export hubs in Africa. Assessment of the <span><span>IEA Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure Projects Database, updated in October 2023</span></span>, reveals that Egypt, Morocco, Namibia, and South Africa are the leading candidates for hydrogen production and exports from Africa. Consequently, the EU-driven expansion of global green hydrogen production centers in the 2020s and 2030s could result in a shift from petroleum dependence on the Middle East and Russia to hydrogen reliance on just a few African countries by the early 2040s. This deployment could conflict with European interests in fostering energy cooperation with Africa. Without development of comprehensive hydrogen value chains in Africa, green hydrogen sector risksperpetuating extractivism and insecurity, resulting in enclave-style renewable hydrogen industry and a “hydrogen-curse” that exacerbates African maldevelopment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 123974"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143714883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0