Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

Automatic synthesis of econometric empirical research results using large language model: A case study of digitalization-greening relationships 基于大语言模型的计量经济学实证研究结果自动综合：数字化与绿化关系的案例研究

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124370

Zitong Guo , Guangfei Yang , Wenjun Wu

{"title":"Automatic synthesis of econometric empirical research results using large language model: A case study of digitalization-greening relationships","authors":"Zitong Guo , Guangfei Yang , Wenjun Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124370","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124370","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Econometrics is widely used in economics and social sciences research, generating abundant research results. While meta-analysis, systematic literature review (SLR) and bibliometrics are widely used in hotspot identification and knowledge synthesizing, deeper knowledge extraction, integration and utilization, a broader range of topics, a higher degree of automation and labor demands are expected. To maximize the utility of empirical findings and meet the above expectations, a Large Language Model (LLM)-assisted protocol is proposed in this paper. This protocol utilizes LLM to screen literature records, discriminate econometric empirical studies, and extract structured information from abstracts. Neo4j is used for storage, visualization, and subsequent utilization and mining of the extracted structured information. An empirical case of relationships between digitalization and greening is used to validate the feasibility of the protocol. The findings indicate the protocol accomplishes the verification of the mediating paths in existing research, the exploration of potential mediating paths, and the identification of collider factors, which offer valuable insights for future empirical studies related to digitalization-greening relationships. Future research directions of LLM-driven econometric modeling and knowledge hypernetworks construction via SLR methodologies are finally proposed based on this protocol.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"222 ","pages":"Article 124370"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145271305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Does a streamer's personality influence sales performance? Text mining evidence from Chinese live streaming e-commerce 主播的个性会影响销售业绩吗？来自中国直播电商的文本挖掘证据

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124373

Yuangao Chen, Shuyi Hu, Pengxiang Hu, Liyuan Zhu, Shasha Zhou, Shuiqing Yang

{"title":"Does a streamer's personality influence sales performance? Text mining evidence from Chinese live streaming e-commerce","authors":"Yuangao Chen, Shuyi Hu, Pengxiang Hu, Liyuan Zhu, Shasha Zhou, Shuiqing Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124373","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124373","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The popular streamer is the key determinant of the success of live streaming e-commerce (LSE). However, few studies have been conducted to understand streamers' personalities and their influence on LSE sales performance. This study collects 148,392 Weibo posts from 169 live streamers and identifies their Big Five personality traits by text mining. Then, we adopt regression models to investigate the relationship between streamers' personality traits and sales performance. The results show that a streamer's openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, and agreeableness are positively associated with sales performance, while neuroticism is negatively associated with sales. In addition, product category, as a moderating role, enhances the positive effect of streamers' conscientiousness on sales performance and weakens the negative effect of neuroticism on sales. This study provides insights into the evaluation of live streamer's personality and assists LSE practitioners in achieving better performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"222 ","pages":"Article 124373"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145248013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global online shopping as a catalyst for intercultural sensitivity: Evidence from 69 countries 全球网上购物促进跨文化敏感性：来自69个国家的证据

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124374

Zeren Yu , Mengying Gong , Jinyu Wang , Zhenzhen Zuo

{"title":"Global online shopping as a catalyst for intercultural sensitivity: Evidence from 69 countries","authors":"Zeren Yu , Mengying Gong , Jinyu Wang , Zhenzhen Zuo","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124374","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124374","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Amid globalization and digitalization, cross-border e-commerce has become a key driver of global trade, connecting consumers and sellers from diverse cultures. However, its socio-psychological implications remain underexplored. Treating cross-border online shopping as an informal multicultural experience, this study examines its causal impact on intercultural sensitivity and mechanisms. Guided by the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) and the Intercultural Sensitivity Scale (ISS), we integrated survey data from 1512 consumers in 69 countries with national indicators such as GDP per capita and the Globalization Index to estimate a single-group structural equation model. A multi-group model assessed heterogeneity across gender, Hofstede's cultural dimensions, and the B2C e-commerce index. Results show that: (1) cross-border online shopping significantly enhances intercultural sensitivity; (2) high service and product satisfaction amplify this effect, whereas low satisfaction diminishes it; (3) economic development and globalization also foster intercultural sensitivity; (4) performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and facilitating conditions jointly predict consumption behavior; (5) demographic, cultural, and technological contexts shape these mechanisms (e.g., collectivists relying more on social influence and facilitating conditions, showing stronger sensitivity gains). The study offers novel theoretical insights for intercultural sensitivity research and practical guidance for promoting cross-border e-commerce in diverse markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124374"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Forecasting inclusive futures: Fintech, capability expansion, and livelihood pathways in urban in 预测包容性未来：金融科技、能力扩张和城市生计路径

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124369

Jaskirat Singh , Gurdip Singh Batra , Sarvjeet Kaur

{"title":"Forecasting inclusive futures: Fintech, capability expansion, and livelihood pathways in urban in","authors":"Jaskirat Singh , Gurdip Singh Batra , Sarvjeet Kaur","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124369","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124369","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rigorous evidence forecasting fintech's poverty alleviation mechanisms in low-income settings remains scarce. Integrating Sen's Capability Approach and the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, this study analyzes fintech's influence on productive credit use, assets, and capabilities in Indian slums. A mixed-methods design (<em>N</em> = 600 survey, 40 interviews) combines Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA). SEM confirms fintech adoption strongly predicts productive credit use (β = 0.68, <em>p</em> < 0.001), fostering assets (β = 0.72) and capabilities (β = 0.75), improving livelihoods (β = 0.70); policy support significantly moderates (β = 0.30, <em>p</em> = 0.002) the initial fintech-credit link. Complementing SEM's net effects, fsQCA reveals two sufficient, equifinal pathways to improved livelihoods: (1) high fintech adoption <em>with</em> robust policy support (Consistency: 0.87, Coverage: 0.42), demonstrating policy synergy, and (2) moderate fintech usage <em>compensated by</em> strong social networks and prior assets (Consistency: 0.82, Coverage: 0.31), highlighting community compensation mechanisms. Qualitative data illuminate crucial roles of trust, digital literacy, mentorship, and gender dynamics, a finding quantitatively substantiated by a multi-group analysis revealing that women are significantly more effective at leveraging social networks, while revealing risks such as digital exclusion and potential debt traps. Findings forecast that successful fintech deployment for poverty reduction necessitates synergistic socio-technical ecosystems—combining technology with enabling policies, community structures, and proactive mitigation of negative externalities—thereby informing strategies for inclusive, sustainable social change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124369"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Harnessing the dimensions of supply chain collaboration to promote innovation and flexibility in buyer-supplier relationships: Insights from fsQCA and NCA 利用供应链协作的维度促进买方-供应商关系的创新和灵活性：来自fsQCA和NCA的见解

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124363

Innocent Senyo Kwasi Acquah , Micheline Juliana Naude , Nnamdi Oguji

{"title":"Harnessing the dimensions of supply chain collaboration to promote innovation and flexibility in buyer-supplier relationships: Insights from fsQCA and NCA","authors":"Innocent Senyo Kwasi Acquah , Micheline Juliana Naude , Nnamdi Oguji","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124363","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124363","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While the symmetric effects of supply chain collaboration (SCC) on innovation and flexibility from a probabilistic sufficiency perspective are well documented, prior research on the asymmetric effects of the dimensions of SCC on innovation and flexibility from a deterministic sufficiency perspective is scarce. However, understanding how the dimensions asymmetrically relate to innovation and flexibility can help uncover the SCC dimensions that are individually necessary (deterministic necessity perspective) and jointly sufficient (deterministic sufficiency perspective) for innovation and flexibility. Accordingly, we assume a deterministic perspective (i.e., deterministic sufficiency and necessity) to investigate the asymmetric effects of the dimensions of SCC on innovation and flexibility by unravelling the (a) dimensions of SCC that are necessary for innovation and flexibility and (b) combinations of SCC dimensions that enhance innovation and flexibility among supply chain partners in Ghana's downstream petroleum sector. With a sample of 166 firms, we used fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to unearth the causal, complex, but sufficient configurations of SCC dimensions that drive innovation and flexibility. Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) was also employed to ascertain the necessity (<em>both in kind and degree</em>) of each SCC dimension for innovation and flexibility. Whereas our fsQCA analysis reveals four pathways, each with different configurations for flexibility and innovation, NCA results suggest that all SCC dimensions are necessary for innovation and flexibility, albeit at different levels. Accordingly, we highlight the importance of complementing two asymmetric analysis approaches to provide nuanced insights into how SCC dimensions drive innovation and flexibility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124363"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Digital innovation as strategic response: How CEO with informal power deal with inconsistent performance feedback 作为战略回应的数字创新：拥有非正式权力的CEO如何处理不一致的绩效反馈

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124354

Weiwei Wu , Xue Li , Yexin Liu , Yanggi Kim

{"title":"Digital innovation as strategic response: How CEO with informal power deal with inconsistent performance feedback","authors":"Weiwei Wu , Xue Li , Yexin Liu , Yanggi Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124354","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124354","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital innovation has emerged as a crucial organizational strategy. Existing research on the antecedents of digital innovation often overlooks its inherent attributes as strategic response. According to the behavior theory of firm (BTOF), managers perceive and assessment from performance feedback and thereby critically shape organizational responses. This subjectivity means that managerial cognition fundamentally influences how performance feedback is understood and acted upon. Thus, this study explores how CEO informal power—to interpret inconsistent feedback—influences the impact of inconsistent feedback (that is, negative feedback and positive prospects) on digital innovation. Using Chinese manufacturing firms during 2015–2020, this study revealed that firms engage in less digital innovation as a response to inconsistent feedback when the firm's CEO has more prestige power or expert power. Further, the negative impact of the CEO prestige power on the relationship between inconsistent feedback and digital innovation is greater when CEO expert power is high. This study highlights the significance of individual-level mechanisms within the BTOF framework. It also advances BTOF in backward-and forward-looking reference points research and heterogeneity in performance feedback. Besides, it contributes to the literature on digital innovation as strategic response behavior by identifying the driving mechanism of organizational adaptation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124354"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How digital transformation facilitates ESG performance to heavy polluting enterprises:A panel fsQCA based on national big data comprehensive pilot zones 数字化转型如何促进重污染企业的ESG绩效：基于国家大数据综合试验区的面板fsQCA

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124366

Li Jing , Li Qianqiang , Chen Yantai , An Qi

{"title":"How digital transformation facilitates ESG performance to heavy polluting enterprises:A panel fsQCA based on national big data comprehensive pilot zones","authors":"Li Jing , Li Qianqiang , Chen Yantai , An Qi","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124366","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124366","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital transformation presents a promising pathway to improving Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance in heavy-polluting enterprises within emerging economies. However, it also introduces potential drawbacks, such as bounded rationality crowding-out effects and a focus on short-term financial goals. Therefore, to fully understand its multifaceted impact on ESG performance, a comprehensive analysis through the lens of complex systems management is crucial. This study applies panel data fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (PD-fsQCA) to examine heavy-polluting enterprises in China's national big data comprehensive pilot zones. Grounded in the Technological-Organizational-Environmental (TOE) framework, the analysis uncovers the intricate causal relationships between digital transformation and ESG performance. The findings reveal that factors such as digital strategies (DS), digital technology (DT), internal control quality (IC), enterprise environmental attention allocation (EA), regional environmental regulation (ER), and public environmental concern (PEC) interact in multiple configurations to shape ESG outcomes, including “IC & DT” Driven, “ER & DS” Driven, and “DT & DS” Driven models. These pathways demonstrate significant temporal and organizational heterogeneity, highlighting the diverse impacts of digital transformation on ESG performance across different timeframes and enterprise contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124366"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Green strategic intent, artificial intelligence capability and behavioral dynamics of achieving circular economy goals in the public sector 公共部门实现循环经济目标的绿色战略意图、人工智能能力和行为动态

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124362

Nadia Zahoor , Muhammad Usman , Adeel Khalid , Mohamed Gamal Aboelmaged , Naveed Yasin

{"title":"Green strategic intent, artificial intelligence capability and behavioral dynamics of achieving circular economy goals in the public sector","authors":"Nadia Zahoor , Muhammad Usman , Adeel Khalid , Mohamed Gamal Aboelmaged , Naveed Yasin","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124362","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124362","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the role of green strategic intent in facilitating the adoption of circular economy practices within public sector organizations. Using the dynamic capability view, we proposed that green strategic intent leads to circular economy practices. We also proposed that artificial intelligence (AI) capability and green learning ambidexterity act as significant underlying mechanisms and leader boundary-spanning behavior as a moderator. Data were collected from 228 managers of various public sector departments in United Arab Emirates (UAE) using a time-lagged design. Our results supported that there is a positive relationship between green strategic intent and circular economy practices. Further, green strategic intent positively influences circular economy practices through AI capability and green learning ambidexterity that act as serial mediators of the green strategic intent-circular economy practices link. Finally, leader boundary-spanning behavior significantly moderates the effects of green strategic intent on AI capability. Our findings offer important insights that can enable public sector organizations to implement circular economy practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124362"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A hierarchical framework for addressing innovation resistance to ICT adoption in older adults: A case study of safety alarm systems 解决老年人对信息通信技术采用的创新阻力的分层框架：安全报警系统的案例研究

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124356

Ming-Hao Chang , Jian-Yu Lian , Pi-Shan Sung , Peng-Ting Chen

{"title":"A hierarchical framework for addressing innovation resistance to ICT adoption in older adults: A case study of safety alarm systems","authors":"Ming-Hao Chang , Jian-Yu Lian , Pi-Shan Sung , Peng-Ting Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124356","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124356","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aging in place, the concept of older individuals living independently within their communities, is gaining importance as the global population aged over 65 rises. Technology, particularly information and communication technology (ICT), plays a crucial role in supporting aging in place by enhancing safety and quality of life. Given Taiwan's strong research and development sector in ICT and the prevalence of aging in place, the case study is conducted in Taiwan. Content analysis of the interviews identified 16 key barriers, which were combined with those from the literature review. To systematically address these barriers and develop strategies, the study employed the Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) methodology, which involved establishing pairwise relationships among challenges with expert input. The study included 27 expert respondents, including physicians and scholars. This study found that User's Computer Literacy, Product Operation Complexity, Network Equipment Support, and Usage Safety Consideration require immediate attention. Therefore, older adults with an early educational background in computer literacy tend to adopt ICT more successfully. This study offers a hierarchical framework for overcoming barriers to ICT adoption among the elderly, enhancing elderly safety and supporting aging in place.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124356"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Can dual-pilot policy of innovative city and carbon trading promote carbon productivity? Empirical evidence from dual-pilot city in China 创新城市与碳交易双试点政策能否促进碳生产力？来自中国双试点城市的经验证据

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124360

Yao Qin, Hongmei Zhang, Wei Liang

{"title":"Can dual-pilot policy of innovative city and carbon trading promote carbon productivity? Empirical evidence from dual-pilot city in China","authors":"Yao Qin, Hongmei Zhang, Wei Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124360","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124360","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China is committed to reducing carbon emissions and advancing sustainable development. The carbon emissions trading pilot and innovative city pilot programs serve as crucial policy instruments for achieving carbon neutrality and high-quality economic growth. Carbon productivity, a comprehensive metric that balances emission reduction and economic performance, provides a rational indicator for assessing these dual objectives. Investigating the synergistic effects of these dual-pilot policies on carbon productivity holds significant importance. This study evaluates the impact and mechanisms of the “dual-pilot policy” (integrating carbon trading and innovative city policies) on urban carbon productivity. It is evident from the findings that the dual-pilot policy substantially enhances carbon productivity (0.365), fostering regional green economic development. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the policy's impact exhibits development convergence characteristics. In exploring policy synergy, this study demonstrates that dual-pilot implementation generates unique contributions: for cities already participating in a single pilot, adopting the dual-pilot policy leads to an additional 14.1 % increase in carbon productivity compared to their baseline levels. Furthermore, the policy sequencing of “innovation-first followed by carbon trading” yields superior outcomes (0.239). By innovatively exploring the joint outcomes associated with dual-pilot policy synergy on carbon productivity. This research beyond advancing scholarly discourse on decarbonization, the analysis yields operational frameworks to optimize policy synergy effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124360"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0