Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

Unveiling the blueprint for rural digital prosperity: A comparative examination of top 100 digital counties in China 揭开农村数字繁荣的蓝图：中国数字百强县比较研究

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123625

{"title":"Unveiling the blueprint for rural digital prosperity: A comparative examination of top 100 digital counties in China","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123625","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123625","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The current research focus in the field of digital rural development revolves around achieving high-quality digital rural construction and addressing the digital divide in different regions. This is particularly significant in China, where the issue has grown increasingly prominent. To delineate the pathway for rural digitalization and bridge the digital divide, we have constructed a Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework, drawing upon configuration theory. Utilizing data from China's Top 100 Digital Rural Counties and applying the methods of Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), we identified the configurational paths necessary to achieve high-quality digital rural construction and discerned the nature of the digital divide across various regions. The findings show that: 1) none of the single antecedent conditions is a necessary condition for achieving a high level of digital rural construction. 2) There are four configurational paths for high-quality digital rural construction: technology-organization combination, technology-organization optimization, technology-organization symbiosis, and environmental integration. 3) Further analyses show that the configurational path for high-quality rural digitalization in the southeast coastal areas is organization-led, multi-coordinated, and technology-environment driven. In contrast, for inland provinces, it is technology-led, technology-innovation, and technology-external pressure. Moreover, a comparative analysis of regional differences shows that the high-quality digital rural construction in the southeast coastal provinces presents a well-rounded development type, whereas for the inland provinces it demonstrates a development mode of technology-driven under government leadership. The findings provide valuable insights for rural digitalization research and shed light on bridging the digital divide.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142149769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A multicriteria approach to ranking Latin-American universities based on region-specific criteria 基于地区特定标准的拉丁美洲大学排名多标准方法

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123725

{"title":"A multicriteria approach to ranking Latin-American universities based on region-specific criteria","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123725","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123725","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>University rankings have become a widespread tool for assessing and comparing the performance of higher education institutions worldwide. Over time, these rankings have evolved into crucial references for both students and academic institutions when making decisions. Several well-established university rankings, such as the QS and Scimago Ranking, utilize various evaluation criteria to classify universities. However, these criteria may adversely affect universities in different regions, including Latin America. In this study, we aim to address the unique reality of Latin American universities, considering their specific characteristics and challenges. Our focus will be on a comprehensive review of the evaluation criteria used in these two renowned rankings and their impact on the region, including how they influence the performance of universities. We propose a novel ranking model using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to counter these potential biases and regional disparities. This multicriteria optimization approach enables us to evaluate and compare universities based on multiple criteria, considering their similarities to the ideal solution and differences from the anti-ideal solution. By adopting the TOPSIS method, we aim to create a more robust and balanced approach incorporating carefully selected criteria. It allows us to include economic and inclusion criteria often overlooked in conventional rankings. Our study seeks to establish a fairer, more relevant university ranking system tailored to Latin America's needs and aspirations. Our proposed TOPSIS-based model aims to contribute significantly to the ongoing discussions on higher education excellence in Latin America by providing a comprehensive evaluation considering the region's specific circumstances.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162524005237/pdfft?md5=fcce5d3d2711813f6d7eda0f181f7ffc&pid=1-s2.0-S0040162524005237-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142149771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Using emerging technologies to tackle mobility challenges caused by population ageing: Experiences from Japan 利用新兴技术应对人口老龄化带来的交通挑战：日本的经验

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123729

{"title":"Using emerging technologies to tackle mobility challenges caused by population ageing: Experiences from Japan","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123729","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123729","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As population ageing accelerates globally, addressing its manifold impacts on society has become a critical mission for technological development. Mobility is a key domain where population ageing poses both challenges and opportunities. Innovations such as autonomous vehicles and Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) are widely discussed in literature, with many studies focusing on user acceptance. But knowledge lacks about the experiences of implementing these innovations in mobility services for elderly people. This empirical study uses evidence from interviews with practitioners and experts to deepen knowledge of the mobility challenges caused by an ageing society, and how technological and service innovation could address these. With Japan as a case study, we examine: (1) mobility-related problems caused by population ageing and decline; (2) expectations regarding the potential of MaaS and autonomous vehicles to address these problems; and (3) barriers to achieving these expectations. The analysis reveals that population ageing in Japan is creating societal challenges especially in safety, driver shortages, deteriorating transport services and profitability, accessibility barriers, and compromised health and well-being. These challenges are interlinked and self-reinforcing, making them difficult to address. As next-generation mobility projects flourish across Japan, we identify tensions between expectations about their potential and the starker reality confronting them.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142149770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A novel text-based framework for forecasting coal power overcapacity in China from the industrial correlation perspective 从产业关联角度预测中国煤电产能过剩的新型文本框架

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123690

{"title":"A novel text-based framework for forecasting coal power overcapacity in China from the industrial correlation perspective","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123690","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123690","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The accurate forecasting of coal power overcapacity in China has significant impact on the promotion of the dual carbon strategy. However, due to the complexity of the causes of coal power overcapacity, existing forecasting methods are unable to comprehensively identify influencing factors and incorporate them into forecasting models. Given this, we propose a text-based framework for forecasting coal power overcapacity. Specifically, a topic model and a sentiment analysis method are used to identifies and quantifies the influencing factors from policies and news texts of coal power and its related industries. In addition, under the dual carbon target, the development trend of coal power overcapacity under different environmental constraint scenarios was examined. The empirical test shows that the performance of the forecasting models based on the text data of the related industries is better than that based on the text data of the single coal power industry and the numerical data of the single objective variable, and the changes in capacity of the upstream and alternative industries and the industrial policy support of the downstream industries are the main causes of overcapacity. The scenario forecasting results indicate that the coal power overcapacity scale shows an upward trend from 2021 to 2060.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142149767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unleashing global potential: The impact of digital technology innovation on corporate international diversification 释放全球潜力：数字技术创新对企业国际多元化的影响

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123727

{"title":"Unleashing global potential: The impact of digital technology innovation on corporate international diversification","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123727","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123727","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the role of digital technology in driving the international diversification of firms within the context of China's unique market conditions. The limited marketization and institutional imperfections common in developing countries often compel local enterprises to seek expansion abroad. Using a sample of Chinese listed companies from 2005 to 2021, we find a positive correlation between digital technology innovation and international diversification. Mechanism tests indicate that digital technology facilitates this expansion by promoting corporate digital transformation, improving information transparency, increasing operational efficiency, and mitigating financing constraints. Furthermore, this positive impact is particularly pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises and traditional industries. These findings underscore the pivotal role of digital technology in aiding firms from developing markets to engage more effectively in global commerce and offer vital policy insights. Governments in other developing countries might consider similar strategies to foster digital innovation and promote global economic integration, leveraging the insights from China's experience as a blueprint for broader application.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142149768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analyzing the interplay between eco-friendly and Islamic digital currencies and green investments 分析生态友好型和伊斯兰数字货币与绿色投资之间的相互作用

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123715

{"title":"Analyzing the interplay between eco-friendly and Islamic digital currencies and green investments","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123715","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123715","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study aimed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between digital innovations and sustainable investments, specifically regarding their roles in promoting economic resilience and sustainability in the energy sector. To this end, the present study examined the possible consequences of the widespread use of energy-intensive crypto-asset technologies, focusing on those that rely heavily on non-renewable energy sources. The analytical results demonstrated that the interconnectedness between cryptocurrency-based digital innovations and sustainable investments was most pronounced in bull markets characterized by high returns and upper tails, except for the Dash Green market. Bitcoin and Stellar exhibited the strongest connections with eco-friendly financial ventures across various market states, indicating their robust interplay with sustainable portfolios. The total connectedness index using an Elman neural network revealed that higher non-linear dynamic information was associated with green-synthesized cryptocurrency-driven innovations, compared with other digital innovations. This study contributes to scholarly understanding of the interconnectedness between cryptocurrency-based digital innovations and sustainable investments by elucidating their dynamics under different market conditions. These findings underscore the need for further analysis to fully comprehend the intricate relationship between these assets, particularly across different quantile levels, as well as to inform sound investment decisions in sustainable finance.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142149772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Volatility spillovers between energy and agriculture markets during the ongoing food & energy crisis: Does uncertainty from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict matter? 当前粮食和能源危机期间能源和农业市场之间的波动溢出效应：俄乌冲突带来的不确定性是否重要？

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123723

{"title":"Volatility spillovers between energy and agriculture markets during the ongoing food & energy crisis: Does uncertainty from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict matter?","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123723","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123723","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Food and energy are the backbone of the global economy. The world is unfortunately witnessing the food and energy crisis caused by the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict. However, the effects of the uncertainty related to the conflict on volatility spillovers between energy and agricultural commodity markets during this crisis have largely been neglected. As such, this study aims to fill this gap by using data from Google Trends to measure uncertainty related to the conflict. Our analysis utilizes the TVP-VAR connectedness approach to measure volatility spillover between energy and agriculture markets during the ongoing crisis. We find that the uncertainty related to the ongoing conflict significantly increases the spillovers between energy and agricultural markets. However, the effect of the uncertainty on the spillovers is mitigated by an increase in available information related to geopolitical risk, which is not documented in previous studies. Furthermore, the results also reveal that the volatility spillovers increase significantly around events related to sanctions on Russian energy imposed by the G-7 countries and the European Union.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142137034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Industry 4.0 technologies in Smart Agriculture: A review and a Technology Assessment Model proposition 智能农业中的工业 4.0 技术：回顾与技术评估模型命题

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123640

{"title":"Industry 4.0 technologies in Smart Agriculture: A review and a Technology Assessment Model proposition","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123640","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123640","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Amidst the growing need for sustainable evolution in the agricultural sector, this study explores the progressive integration of Industry 4.0 (I4.0) technologies to foster the transition towards Smart Agriculture (SA). We aim to elucidate the contemporary relationship between agriculture and I4.0, identify the most promising I4.0 technologies that cater to the unique challenges faced by farmers in SA, and establish a comprehensive assessment framework for evaluating and prioritizing these technologies for adoption. Utilizing the SPAR-4-SLR (Scientific Procedures and Rationales for SystematicLiterature Reviews) framework for a systematic literature review, we critically analyze the impact of IoT, Blockchain, Cloud Computing, Machine Learning, and Sensors etc. within the agricultural domain. Our research uncovers the crucial criteria and factors necessary for an effective technology assessment framework, designed to aid stakeholders in making informed decisions about I4.0 technology adoption. Although our review is limited to literature from the Scopus and Web of Science databases, focusing exclusively on Q1 and Q2 ranked articles, the findings offer a novel perspective on the synergistic evolution of agriculture and I4.0. The proposed framework integrates strategic, tactical, and operational aspects, guiding stakeholders through a qualitative evaluation process informed by extensive literature analysis and expert insights. Despite the limitations pertaining to database scope and qualitative focus, our study provides a foundational understanding of the technological advancements shaping SA and lays the groundwork for future research in this pivotal area.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142137212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Servitization and product service system: A literature review on value creation 服务化与产品服务体系：关于价值创造的文献综述

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123724

{"title":"Servitization and product service system: A literature review on value creation","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123724","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123724","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In recent years, the concept of servitization has been widely applied in the management of enterprises. However, changing customer demands and competitive pressures of the market have compelled enterprises to seek innovation. Simultaneously, in the context of the Industry 4.0 trend, the rapid development of digital technologies has led to an increasing number of studies on the integration of servitization and digitization. Therefore, this study, based on VOSviewer, Gephi, Scimago Graphica, and Histcite, analyzes the current state and development trends of research on servitization and product service system innovation from the perspective of value creation. Initially, basic statistical characteristics such as the influential author, geographical cooperation, and highly cited papers are presented by collecting relevant data from the Web of Science core collection database. Subsequently, this study explores the research hotspots and evolutionary trends in servitization and product service system innovation through keyword co-occurrence analysis and cluster analysis. Lastly, from a literature analysis perspective, the application of advanced technologies in servitization, digital servitization from an ecosystem perspective, and the innovative use of microservices architecture in product service systems are summarized and forecasted as research directions, providing theoretical guidance for future research in servitization.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142137033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-step carbon emissions forecasting using an interpretable framework of new data preprocessing techniques and improved grey multivariable convolution model 利用新数据预处理技术的可解释框架和改进的灰色多变量卷积模型进行多步骤碳排放预测

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123720

{"title":"Multi-step carbon emissions forecasting using an interpretable framework of new data preprocessing techniques and improved grey multivariable convolution model","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123720","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123720","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As China stands at a critical juncture in its transition towards a low-carbon future, the precise prediction and analysis of provincial carbon emissions have emerged as paramount tasks. Focusing on forecasting in this intricate and vital domain, an updated grey multivariable convolution model is designed by employing the unified new-information-oriented accumulating generation operator (<em>UNAGO</em>) technique to process raw sequences. Equipped with <em>UNAGO</em>'s hyper-parameters that enable the independent scaling effects and prioritize new information, the newly-designed model offers high flexibility and adaptability for handling complex provincial carbon emissions. Subsequently, four different restricted carbon emission sequences are utilized as case studies for validation purposes, and the new model's performance is scrutinized against five contrasting methods across three prediction forecasting horizons. Comparative experimental results reveal the new model's superior level of accuracy in predicting carbon emissions across four different provinces, with <em>MAPE</em> values of <4 % and 10 % in the in-sample and out-of-sample periods, respectively. Furthermore, rigorous evaluations with Diebold-Mariano (<em>DM</em>) and Probability Density Analysis (<em>PDA</em>) tests confirm the model's robust and general forecasting capabilities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142128891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0