Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

Exploring user acceptance of physical intelligent assistants: A study on AI-powered eyewear 探索用户对物理智能助手的接受程度：人工智能眼镜的研究

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124300

Ben Niu, Gustave Florentin Nkoulou Mvondo

{"title":"Exploring user acceptance of physical intelligent assistants: A study on AI-powered eyewear","authors":"Ben Niu, Gustave Florentin Nkoulou Mvondo","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124300","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124300","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As AI becomes increasingly integrated into everyday life, driven by the ongoing AI hardware revolution, physical intelligent assistants (PIAs), such as AI-powered eyewear, are emerging as transformative technologies that enable natural language interaction and autonomous task execution. While prior research has largely focused on digital assistants and traditional smart glasses, limited scholarly attention has been given to the factors influencing user adoption of AI-powered eyewear. This study extends the technology acceptance model (TAM) with perceived intelligence factors (conversational intelligence, task intelligence, and perceived naturalness), interface design aesthetics, and privacy concerns. Data were collected from 629 US users and analyzed using PLS-SEM and fsQCA. The results show that perceived intelligence factors and perceived ease of use positively affect perceived usefulness and user acceptance, while interface design aesthetics, although not affecting perceived usefulness, directly enhances acceptance. In contrast, privacy concerns negatively impact acceptance. The fsQCA analysis further reveals both function-driven and style-conscious configurations associated with high acceptance, emphasizing that adoption depends on thoughtfully tailored feature bundles rather than a one-size-fits-all design. Across all pathways, privacy concerns consistently emerge as a fundamental barrier. This study advances the literature and provides actionable insights for designers and marketers seeking to foster adoption of AI-powered eyewear.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"220 ","pages":"Article 124300"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144725046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

“Assessment of circular economy strategies for climate change mitigation”: A forecast on India's path to a net zero future “对减缓气候变化的循环经济战略的评估”：对印度走向零净未来道路的预测

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124294

Thakur Singh kharayat, Himanshu Gupta

{"title":"“Assessment of circular economy strategies for climate change mitigation”: A forecast on India's path to a net zero future","authors":"Thakur Singh kharayat, Himanshu Gupta","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124294","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124294","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The escalating global challenge of climate change necessitates the adoption of sustainable strategies, particularly those aligned with circular economy (CE) principles. This study examines the role of CE strategies in mitigating climate change, with a specific focus on India—a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Grounded in the principles of sustainable development and the carbon reduction targets outlined in the Paris Agreement, this research investigates how CE strategies can support India's climate change mitigation efforts. Additionally, it explores the influence of global corporate strategies in shaping India's approach to sustainability. A comprehensive literature review and expert consultations were conducted to identify and prioritize relevant CE strategies using the Best Worst Method (BWM). The Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) technique was then applied to analyze the interdependencies among these strategies. The findings of this study inform that a shift away from technical outputs toward biological ones through the use of biologically-based materials and processes (SOC3), altering production methods to produce less trash (SOC2), conserving resources (RIR4), and changes made to replace non-renewable resources with renewable ones (RIR3) have stood out as important ways to deal with climate challenges and help get to net-zero emissions. The study offers significant managerial, practical, and social implications, particularly for policymakers, industry leaders, and stakeholders seeking to integrate CE strategies into organizational and governmental frameworks. Given India's ambitious net-zero target by 2070, the prioritization and systematic implementation of CE strategies are imperative for fostering long-term sustainability and economic resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"220 ","pages":"Article 124294"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144722425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Strategic scenarios for the digitalisation of chronic disease care management: A 10-year foresight case study in Lisbon's primary healthcare setting 慢性病护理管理数字化的战略方案：里斯本初级卫生保健环境的10年前瞻性案例研究

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124290

Mariana Peyroteo , Luís Velez Lapão

{"title":"Strategic scenarios for the digitalisation of chronic disease care management: A 10-year foresight case study in Lisbon's primary healthcare setting","authors":"Mariana Peyroteo , Luís Velez Lapão","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124290","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124290","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Managing chronic diseases in Primary Healthcare (PHC) settings presents persistent challenges, particularly in accessibility, communication, and care coordination. While the implementation of digital technologies remains inconsistent, these tools hold significant potential to improve healthcare efficiency and patient engagement.</div></div><div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>This study explores how digital tools can support chronic care in PHC settings in southern Lisbon. It examines enabling factors, integration barriers, and the role of policy in shaping digital transformation.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Using a foresight case study approach, the study analyses the long-term impact of digital health implementation by 2032. Participatory workshops and scenario planning were employed to identify strategic uncertainties and plausible future scenarios.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Three scenarios—Digital PHC, NHS Transition, and Climate Exigency—show the effects of technology, governance shifts, and environmental change. Key enablers are interoperability, AI decision-making, and workforce training. Barriers include infrastructure gaps and low digital health literacy. Findings suggest that digitalisation improves care continuity, resource efficiency, and patient engagement.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The findings highlight the transformative potential of digital health in PHC-based chronic care, given supportive policies, infrastructure investment, and ongoing workforce training. Future research should explore implementation strategies and governance models to support scalable, equitable, and sustainable digital health adoption in PHC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"220 ","pages":"Article 124290"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144713601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The endorsement effectiveness of virtual influencers in nonprofit fundraising: The role of appearance and voice pitch 非营利组织筹款中虚拟网红的认可效果：外表和声音的作用

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124299

Jiehang Song , Chundong Zheng , Xiarong Lv , Xavier Font

{"title":"The endorsement effectiveness of virtual influencers in nonprofit fundraising: The role of appearance and voice pitch","authors":"Jiehang Song , Chundong Zheng , Xiarong Lv , Xavier Font","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124299","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124299","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Virtual influencer (VI) endorsement of brands and products is growing but remains underexplored in the context of online fundraising. While existing research predominantly focuses on how a VI's appearance influences consumer decisions, this study addresses a notable gap by examining the joint effects of appearance and voice pitch on people's donation willingness—and how those effects differ with different levels of project urgency. Drawing on the Stereotype Content Model and Construal Level Theory, this research conducted three experiments for a period of three months in 2023 based on Chinese participants (Total <em>N</em> = 1000). The results demonstrate that for urgent charity projects, human-like (vs. anime-like) VIs with low-pitched (vs. high-pitched) voices lead to higher donations, because they elicit a greater sense of responsibility. Conversely, for non-urgent projects, human-like (vs. anime-like) VIs with high-pitched (vs. low-pitched) voices are more persuasive, due to their heightened perceived efficacy. By unveiling the fit between appearance and voice pitch of VIs and the fit between different VIs and charity projects, this research contributes to the existing literature and practice on endorsement in nonprofit fundraising.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124299"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144703539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Integrating the REA model and multisig architecture for blockchain-based supply chain traceability: An organisational-technical approach 集成基于区块链的供应链可追溯性的REA模型和多签名架构：一种组织技术方法

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124297

Shoufeng Cao , Thomas Miller , Marcus Foth , Warwick Powell

{"title":"Integrating the REA model and multisig architecture for blockchain-based supply chain traceability: An organisational-technical approach","authors":"Shoufeng Cao , Thomas Miller , Marcus Foth , Warwick Powell","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124297","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124297","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Blockchain-enabled supply chain traceability has transitioned from a new concept into a business practice and a customer expectation across industries. This paper explores an organisational-technical approach that integrates the structured business logic of the Resource-Event-Agent (REA) model with the security and accountability of multisig blockchain architecture to enhance blockchain-enabled supply chain traceability. This approach combines (i) an identity-based multisig mechanism, and (ii) unique REA-based traceable units to coordinate supply chain actors to propose, verify and register accountable data onto blockchain networks, while adhering to structured business practices for harmonised data traceability. The novelty of this approach lies in bridging blockchain's technical capabilities with business logic to mitigate garbage in and garbage out problems in achieving reliable and structured traceability in blockchain-enabled supply chains. The organisational-technical approach was developed and implemented to demonstrate its viability through an empirical pilot study in a food supply chain scenario. This paper offers theoretical advancements by integrating the REA ontological model with a multisig architecture to establish a robust framework for structured, secure, and accountable supply chain traceability, while providing practical insights through a scalable solution for industry adoption. By aligning technical innovations with organisational practices, this work makes a significant contribution to the digital transformation of supply chain ecosystems, fostering greater transparency, security, and trust to maximise social and economic impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124297"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144694644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Toward clean cooking: Predicting consumers' intentions to purchase improved cookstoves in Sub-Saharan countries 走向清洁烹饪：预测撒哈拉以南国家消费者购买改良炉灶的意愿

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124288

Vania Vigolo , Alessandro Galimberti , Nicola Cobelli , Bruno Nazim Baroni

{"title":"Toward clean cooking: Predicting consumers' intentions to purchase improved cookstoves in Sub-Saharan countries","authors":"Vania Vigolo , Alessandro Galimberti , Nicola Cobelli , Bruno Nazim Baroni","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124288","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124288","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Improved cookstoves (ICSs) often represent consumers' first step toward transitioning to clean cooking technologies, especially in countries with limited access to clean cookstoves and fuels. Research on the drivers of ICS adoption in African countries is still scarce and often relies on secondary data due to difficulties in collecting primary data from consumers. Conversely, this study examines the drivers of consumers' intentions to purchase ICSs by collecting primary data from Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), two of the world's poorest nations, according to World Bank statistics. Specifically, it integrates the theory of planned behavior and the technology acceptance model, using partial least squares structural equation modeling and multigroup analysis to predict purchase intentions and explore country-specific differences. Our findings show that perceived behavioral control increases purchase intention in both countries. However, significant differences emerge in the effects of attitude and subjective norms on purchase intentions. Specifically, attitude increases purchase intentions only among DRC consumers, while social norms drive purchase intentions only among Burundi consumers. This study highlights the importance of strengthening consumers' confidence in using cleaner cooking solutions to enhance their purchase intentions and thus align with the Sustainable Development Goals of Agenda 2030. In addition, the different roles of attitude and subjective norms in the two countries show that the drivers of consumer behavior regarding ICSs are not uniform. This result emphasizes the need for context-specific interventions and primary research that amplifies the voices of often-overlooked consumers at the base of the pyramid.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124288"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144685750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How does AI-powered virtual influencer's anthropomorphism impact trust and brand love? The moderating role of opinion leadership 人工智能虚拟网红的拟人化如何影响信任和品牌喜爱？舆论领导的调节作用

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124198

Anisur Rehman , Sushant Kumar , Muhammad Asif Salam , Naveen Virmani

{"title":"How does AI-powered virtual influencer's anthropomorphism impact trust and brand love? The moderating role of opinion leadership","authors":"Anisur Rehman , Sushant Kumar , Muhammad Asif Salam , Naveen Virmani","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124198","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124198","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Virtual influencers (VIs) are a new class of influencers that are recently becoming popular on social media. Brands are also using these VIs for several activities. Yet, limited studies have investigated how these VIs drive trust and brand love among followers. Accordingly, this study aims to understand how anthropomorphism and attitude homophily of VIs drive trust towards VI and brand love. This study utilises a conceptual model developed from the theoretical foundation of Computers are Social Actors (CASA) theory with the intermediate variables of emotional attachment and hedonic experience. Data is collected from 321 respondents from Saudi Arabia through a questionnaire approach. The findings show that anthropomorphism drives emotional attachment and hedonic experience, which subsequently determines trust in VI and brand love. The moderating effects of opinion leadership are also confirmed. Social media managers are suggested to use more human-like characteristics in VIs to make them more appealing and relevant to users.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124198"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144685748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unlocking the black box: Enhancing human-AI collaboration in high-stakes healthcare scenarios through explainable AI 打开黑箱：通过可解释的人工智能，在高风险的医疗场景中加强人类与人工智能的协作

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124265

Reda Hassan , Nhien Nguyen , Stine Rasdal Finserås , Lars Adde , Inga Strümke , Ragnhild Støen

{"title":"Unlocking the black box: Enhancing human-AI collaboration in high-stakes healthcare scenarios through explainable AI","authors":"Reda Hassan , Nhien Nguyen , Stine Rasdal Finserås , Lars Adde , Inga Strümke , Ragnhild Støen","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124265","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124265","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the advanced predictive capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, their inherent opacity often leaves users confused about the rationale behind their outputs. We investigate the challenge of AI opacity, which undermines user trust and the effectiveness of clinical judgment in healthcare. We demonstrate how human experts make judgment in high-stakes scenarios where their judgment diverges from AI predictions, emphasizing the need for explainability to enhance clinical judgment and trust in AI systems. We used a scenario-based methodology, conducting 28 semi-structured interviews and observations with clinicians from Norway and Egypt. Our analysis revealed that, during the process of forming judgments, human experts engage in AI interrogation practices when faced with opaque AI systems. Obtaining explainability from AI systems leads to increased interrogation practices aimed at gaining a deeper understanding of AI predictions. With the introduction of explainable AI (XAI), experts demonstrate greater trust in the AI system, show a readiness to learn from AI, and may reconsider or update their initial judgments when they contradict AI predictions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124265"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144685749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How do farmers' cognition and social networks affect the adoption behavior of straw-returning technology? Evidence from the black soil region of Northeast China 农民的认知和社会网络如何影响秸秆还田技术的采用行为？来自东北黑土地区的证据

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124282

Zhanlu Zou, Jianjun Jin, Jie Yang, Dan Liu, Xuan Zhang

{"title":"How do farmers' cognition and social networks affect the adoption behavior of straw-returning technology? Evidence from the black soil region of Northeast China","authors":"Zhanlu Zou, Jianjun Jin, Jie Yang, Dan Liu, Xuan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124282","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124282","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding factors influencing farmers' adoption of straw-returning technology is key to reducing straw burning and shaping agricultural policies. However, research on this topic remains underdeveloped. This study aims to investigate the impact of subjective cognition and social networks on farmers' adoption behavior of straw-returning technology in the black soil region of Northeast China. The results show that over 50 % of farmers in the study area have adopted straw-returning technology. Farmers generally have a moderate level of subjective cognition towards this technology, while the strength of their social networks is low. Subjective cognition and social networks are the main factors influencing farmers' straw-returning technology adoption behavior. Enhanced economic benefit cognition (increasing crop yield and reduce input costs) can significantly promote their adoption behavior. Farmers with stronger influence asymmetry (who have relatives and friends working in government or who have joined scientific organizations and cooperatives) are more likely to adopt this technology. Additionally, sociodemographic characteristics also play a role in influencing adoption behavior. The findings and policy implications of this study can help policymakers to guide farmers to adopt straw-returning technology more effectively, thereby reducing resource waste in agricultural production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124282"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144680440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Applying machine learning to predict production capacity for engineer-to-order products: Learning from wind turbine industry 应用机器学习预测工程订单产品的生产能力：从风力涡轮机行业的学习

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124295

Yanlan Mao , Jan Holmström , Yang Cheng

{"title":"Applying machine learning to predict production capacity for engineer-to-order products: Learning from wind turbine industry","authors":"Yanlan Mao , Jan Holmström , Yang Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124295","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124295","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To shorten lead times, engineer-to-order (ETO) companies develop production capacity plans before finalising product designs. However, the production capacity planning of ETO products tends to be highly unpredictable due to factors such as changes in customer requirements, leading to discrepancies between actual demand and planned capacity. Despite the enormous body of literature on capacity planning, there is a lack of research in the context of ETO. Especially, the literature on the use of data-driven methods, such as machine learning (ML) for production capacity prediction, is sparse. Recognising this potential, this study focuses on early production capacity prediction for ETO products using ML and aims to improve the accuracy of production capacity planning. In this paper, design science research is employed in a real company to develop a ML implementation framework. We find that the stacking model outperforms other three models, demonstrating the feasibility of using ML methods to predict production capacity early in dynamic environments. The developed artefact demonstrates a method for employing ML to predict production capacity for ETO products within a real-world problem domain. Furthermore, the challenges encountered during the ML implementation are discussed based on the proposed artefact, and corresponding suggestions are provided for practitioners.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124295"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144680438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0