Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

{"title":"Building operational resilience through digitalization: The roles of supply chain network position","authors":"Yiran Chen,&nbsp;Bo Li,&nbsp;Baofeng Huo","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123918","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123918","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Firms with high operational resilience tend to have greater stability and recoverability, and are able to remain competitive in complex and changing market environments. However, whether digitalization can build operational resilience and how firms can further benefit from it remains to be studied. Based on the dynamic capability view and network embeddedness theory, this study investigates how digitalization (internal factor) and supply chain network position (external factor) influence operational resilience of Chinese firms during the Covid-19 pandemic. We measure operational resilience by disruption absorption and recoverability. Using the data of listed firms in the China A-share market from 2016 to 2022, we find that digitalization can enhance operational resilience by improving sensing and seizing capabilities, and increase operational recoverability by enhancing reconfiguration capabilities during the pandemic. Furthermore, social network analysis indicates that firms with higher centrality or span more structural holes in the supply chain network have information, resource and control advantages and therefore benefit more from digitalization in improving operational resilience. Our findings provide theoretical and practical implications for managers to leverage digitalization and network position to cope with unprecedented shocks in the post-pandemic era.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 123918"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142759146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unmasking inequalities of the code: Disentangling the nexus of AI and inequality","authors":"Tuba Bircan ,&nbsp;Mustafa F. Özbilgin","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123925","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123925","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article provides an interdisciplinary exploration of the complex dynamics between artificial intelligence (AI) and inequality, drawing upon social sciences and technology studies. It scrutinises the power dynamics that shape the development, deployment, and utilisation of AI technologies, and how these dynamics influence access to and control over AI resources. To do so, we employ Margaret Archer's social realism framework to illuminate the ways in which AI systems can reinforce various forms of inequalities. This theoretical perspective underscores the dynamic interplay between social context, individual agency, and the processes of morphostasis and morphogenesis, offering a nuanced understanding of how inequalities are reproduced and potentially transformed within the AI context. We further discuss the challenges posed by the access and opportunity divide, privacy and surveillance concerns, and the digital divide in the context of AI. We propose co-ownership as a potential solution to economic inequalities induced by AI, suggesting that stakeholders contributing to AI development should have significant claims of ownership. We also advocate for the recognition of AI systems as legal entities, which could provide a mechanism for accountability and compensation in cases of privacy breaches. Finally, we conclude by emphasising the need for robust data governance frameworks, global governance, and a commitment to social justice in navigating the complex landscape of AI and inequality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 123925"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142759154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Digitalization's effect on everyday entrepreneurs in the French organic wine industry","authors":"Eric Braune ,&nbsp;Anne-Laure Boncori ,&nbsp;Leo-Paul Dana","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123921","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123921","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Everyday entrepreneurs comprise a substantial portion of the entrepreneur population. This paper focuses on everyday entrepreneurship, and on its ability despite limited resources to seize opportunities. Specifically, it investigates the impact of digital platform on the performance and activities of everyday entrepreneurs in France's organic wine sector. To this end, we construct a difference-in-difference model for the period 2011–2020. We compare the performance and growth of 66 organic wine producers before and after they joined Les petites caves—a digital platform dedicated to the promotion of organic wines. Subsequently, we compare this target sample with a control sample. The results show that, after digitalization, the target sample achieves higher sales; earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization; net income; and return on assets and equity than that of the control sample. The effect of digital platform on economic performance is more pronounced for younger ventures. These findings show that recourse to new digital technologies thanks to a bricolage ability contributes to everyday entrepreneurs' operational growth and sustainability and enhances their value creation. This study recommends everyday organic wine entrepreneurs to exploit digital platforms to promote local products, improve marketing and economic performance, and revitalize winemaking territories.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 123921"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142759156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping Saudi Arabia's low emissions transition path by 2060: An input-output analysis","authors":"Mohammed Alyousef ,&nbsp;Fateh Belaid ,&nbsp;Norah Almubarak ,&nbsp;Tarifa Almulhim","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123920","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123920","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes Saudi Arabia's strategy to reduce emissions by 2060, as outlined in the Saudi Green Initiative framework (SGI). Using a two-stage Leontief input-output model, we analyze economic criteria for meeting the low emissions target and identify potential green project financing sources. The analysis focuses on Saudi Vision 2030's economic diversification initiatives and the transition to a net-zero carbon economy. We provide new estimates of key economic variables, including non-oil GDP, labor market size, and economic diversification metrics. The study quantifies financial needs for green projects, estimates the expected financial gap, and proposes suitable green financial instruments. Findings highlight the necessity of green bonds, projecting their market share to reach 15 % by 2030 and 30 % by 2060, representing approximately $14 billion and $39 billion, respectively. The study anticipates an annual GDP growth of 2.6 % until 2030 and 2 % until 2060, with over 23 million new jobs created. This research contributes a comprehensive framework for Saudi Arabia's economic transformation, emphasizing the critical role of green investments in driving sustainable development. Our findings offer insights for policymakers and stakeholders shaping Saudi Arabia's sustainable future and provide a model for other resource-dependent economies transitioning to low-carbon systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 123920"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142759153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spinning stories: Wind turbines and local narrative landscapes in Germany","authors":"Erika Christie Berle ,&nbsp;Tom Broekel","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123892","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123892","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The successful transition toward renewable energies requires public support in areas where their expansion may cause adverse effects. In this context, narratives are crucial as they shape people's perceptions. This article examines the relationship between onshore wind power and related narratives in regions across Germany.</div><div>We run a series of spatial regression models on regional newspaper data, and our findings suggest that wind-related topics are more prominent and more neutrally (less angrily) framed in regions with more wind turbines. Public attitudes supporting wind energy expansion correlate with the prominence of related topics in regions' narrative landscapes. In contrast, support for anti-wind protests does not seem to correlate with the prominence of wind-energy-related topics in regions with higher wind turbine densities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 123892"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142759155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Survival determinants of Fintech firms in Malaysia-moderating role of Fintech experience","authors":"Siti Nur Shuhada Nazuri ,&nbsp;Intan Salwani Mohamed ,&nbsp;Norzaidi Mohd Daud","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123922","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123922","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Purpose</h3><div>Financial technology (Fintech) has become a prominent research area due to its transformative impact on the economy and consumers' lives. Fintech refers to companies that leverage advanced and innovative technologies to deliver financial services. This research examined the factors influencing the survivability of Fintech firms in Malaysia, focusing on three categories of Fintech characteristics: industryspecific, firmspecific, and Fintech specific. Industry specific characteristics included the independent variables of pressure intensity and regulatory support. Firm-specific characteristics encompassed variables such as firm size, size of the management team, and internationalization scope. Fintech, IT, and business process management capabilities represented Fintech specific characteristics. Additionally, Fintech experience was examined as a moderating factor between Fintech capabilities and the survivability of Fintech firms.</div></div><div><h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3><div>A quantitative approach was employed using a questionnaire survey method to gather data. The study's population consisted of 233 Fintech companies, selected from the Fintech industry in Malaysia as the unit of analysis. Stratified random sampling was utilized to select 187 companies from the population. The questionnaire was distributed to 187 Fintech companies, resulting in 102 responses. Data analysis was conducted using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 25 and SmartPLS version 4. The study's hypotheses were tested using SmartPLS version 4 as it meets the measurement and complexity criteria of the study's data scale.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The results showed that regulatory support, Fintech capabilities, IT capabilities, and business process management capabilities significantly affect the survivability of Fintech firms. Fintech experience moderates the relationship between Fintech capabilities and firm survivability. However, pressure intensity, firm size, management team size, internationalization scope, and Fintech capabilities do not significantly influence Fintech firms' survivability.</div></div><div><h3>Originality</h3><div>This study offers several important implications. First, it addresses gaps in the existing literature and provides valuable insights to enhance the survivability of Fintech firms in Malaysia. Additionally, the findings may benefit policymakers seeking to strengthen support for the Fintech sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 123922"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142759152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Text classification for evaluating digital technology adoption maturity based on BERT: An evidence of Industrial AI from China","authors":"Yanhong Wang ,&nbsp;Chen Gong ,&nbsp;Xiaodong Ji ,&nbsp;Qi Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123903","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123903","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural language processing (NLP) models, such as GPT and BERT, are predictable to subvert the research paradigm of technology foresight and innovation management, for their good objectivity, robustness, and efficiency. This paper aims to apply an NLP model based on deep learning to realize the digital technology adoption maturity evaluation. Firstly, a 3-layer evaluation system, with a hierarchy of domain-indicator-level, is proposed. Meanwhile, a dataset on the deployment of Industrial AI in China is collected and provided to our evaluation system. After data annotation by experts with reference to domains and indicators, a BERT model is introduced to execute the multi-label text classification task. The experiment results prove that our high-performance BERT model has the ability to learn from human experts, and then benefits to mitigate biases and reduce cost in evaluation. In the area of Industrial AI deployments, our research points out the digital technologies adoption maturity trends over time, trickle-down effect across regions, and the flying geese pattern between industries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 123903"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142757357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How breakthrough innovations develop in an organization with logic multiplicity: A multiple case study of a healthcare organization in China","authors":"Jiang Yu ,&nbsp;Naisi Fan ,&nbsp;Haibo Zhou ,&nbsp;Feng Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123919","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123919","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite recognizing the strategic importance of breakthrough innovations (BIs) and changing organizational landscapes toward multifaceted values, the question of how BIs emerge and develop in organizations that exhibit multifaceted value logics remains largely unanswered. To address this gap, we investigate the underlying rationale (i.e. logic interplay) of the organizational mechanisms that contribute to the emergence and development of BI practices under logic multiplicity from the perspective of institutional logic. By conducting in-depth case studies of three breakthrough innovation projects in the context of a prominent Chinese healthcare organization that is characterized by the presence of multiple logics, we identify a process model for BI development under logic multiplicity. The model contains three sequential mechanisms associated with logic interplay—logic-bridging, logic-harmonizing, and logic-tilting—that subsequently contribute to specific BI practices across different stages of the BI development process. Our process model illustrates how organizations with multiple logics facilitate the evolution of BIs, emphasizes the interplay and coevolution of diverse logics and highlights the agency of organizational actors in this context.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 123919"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142757356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When do incumbents adopt radical net-zero technologies? Analysing differences in strategy trajectories of European truck manufacturers towards alternative vehicle technologies","authors":"Aline Scherrer,&nbsp;Karoline S. Rogge","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123872","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123872","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Net-zero vehicle technologies are essential to curb CO₂ emissions from heavy-duty road transport. This study investigates the innovation strategies of European truck manufacturers following the EU's decision to limit CO₂ emissions of heavy-duty vehicles in 2019. Our analysis is based on interviews with managers from all European truck manufacturers and publicly available documents covering the period from 2018 to 2021. We find four different types of strategy trajectories: <em>proactive diversifier, focused leapfrogger, initial incrementalist</em>, and <em>diverse follower</em>; these range from manufacturers with proactive strategies towards all alternative technologies to those favouring more incremental technologies and displaying laggard-like behaviour towards more radical technologies. Our analysis reveals that these types show a close match to key markets, resources and competencies, research investments, knowledge acquisitions, and expectations towards low-carbon technologies and infrastructures. Additionally, we uncover interdependencies with other segments and markets, the growing political weight of the vehicle industry through infrastructure provision, and the consolidating market impact resulting from necessary collaborations to achieve ambitious (political) decarbonisation targets with increasingly stringent policies. We conclude that both technology-neutral and technology-specific policies can restrict the adoption of potentially more efficient net-zero technologies and recommend leveraging firm-level determinants for more effective net-zero policy mixes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 123872"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142748673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic nexus between urban digitization and pollutant discharge: RBC theory and empirical evidence from China","authors":"Boyang Li ,&nbsp;Yuqin Du ,&nbsp;Guijing Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123915","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123915","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An economy undergoing digitalization may experience environmental degradation. This study aims to explore the potential environmental consequences of digitalization. First, the paper develops a real business cycle model that incorporates pollution constraints and endogenous digital capital investment. Second, the study identifies three stages of endogenous digital capital accumulation: resource mismatch, scaling, technology spillovers, and eventual monopolization. Correspondingly, environmental changes unfold in three stages: degradation, subsequent improvement, and regression back to deterioration. Finally, the empirical analysis draws on the process of digital capital accumulation across Chinese cities, revealing that while digital capital accumulation initially contributed to environmental degradation, technology spillovers could help mitigate these effects. Furthermore, the study highlights the differing levels of digital capital across cities, placing them at various stages of development. It underscores the critical need for policymakers to carefully balance the scale of digital capital, as both insufficient and excessive accumulation can exacerbate environmental challenges. This analysis offers valuable insights for policymakers seeking to foster digital development while mitigating environmental pollution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 123915"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142748672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}