Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

How does large-scale internal migration affect innovation? Evidence from China 大规模内部迁移如何影响创新？来自中国的证据

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124199

Chenghua Guan , Wanting Xu , Peijin Yang , Yao Xiao , Byann Rasul

{"title":"How does large-scale internal migration affect innovation? Evidence from China","authors":"Chenghua Guan , Wanting Xu , Peijin Yang , Yao Xiao , Byann Rasul","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124199","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124199","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The influx of international and high-skilled migrants has profoundly promoted innovation in developed countries. However, few studies have investigated the effects of large-scale and various types of internal migrants on innovation in developing countries. With a surge in internal migration and innovation progress, China provides an excellent place and unique case to explore this issue. Using the predicted share of migrants as an instrumental variable for migration, this study examines the causal effects and mechanisms of internal migration on innovation in China from 2000 to 2015. Our results indicate that internal migration significantly promotes innovation in China. The promotion effects of migration are more pronounced among high-skilled, ‘urban <em>hukou</em>,’ and urban-urban migrants as well as in coastal areas, larger cities, and cities with higher levels of public services. Migrants can broaden the local human capital stock, enhance cultural diversity, and improve skill complementarity in their destination areas, thereby facilitating innovation. This study highlights the contribution of various types of internal migrants to innovation in China, which differs significantly from previous studies on international migrants in developed countries. These findings provide new insight into migration and innovation and offer references for other developing countries to formulate sustainable migration and innovation policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"218 ","pages":"Article 124199"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Methodological implications of using machine learning to estimate the impact of AI on the workforce 使用机器学习来估计人工智能对劳动力的影响的方法含义

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124197

Andrew J. Evans

{"title":"Methodological implications of using machine learning to estimate the impact of AI on the workforce","authors":"Andrew J. Evans","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124197","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124197","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Examining the potential effects of artificial intelligence on jobs has been a research topic for many years, carrying significant implications for social and industrial policies. Frey and Osborne's seminal study, which estimated that AI could potentially displace 47 % of jobs, has inspired numerous subsequent studies that have reused many elements of the original research.</div><div>However, the methodological approach and application of machine learning in their study has largely escaped critical examination. Given the study's significant influence in both academic circles and public discourse, this article aims to offer a methodological critique of Frey and Osborne's work and their use of machine learning to assess how these factors may have shaped their findings and conclusions. The analysis finds that their study lacks the necessary methodological robustness to produce reliable results and that the use of machine learning to estimate the impact of AI on the workforce would not be recommended. Additionally, this paper briefly explores the similarities with recent studies on the impact of generative AI on the workforce, highlighting comparable methodological issues. As a result, this paper proposes a future research agenda to help researchers, policymakers, and businesses gain a better understanding of how AI technologies may impact the workforce.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"218 ","pages":"Article 124197"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Emerging technologies in sharing economy: a review and research agenda 共享经济中的新兴技术：回顾与研究议程

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124218

Mokter Hossain , Farhan Ahmad , Majid Aleem , Anu Bask , Mervi Rajahonka

引用次数: 0

Work Intensification in hybrid workplace: The potential downstream effects on perceived exploitation and negative work outcomes 混合工作场所的工作强化：对感知剥削和消极工作结果的潜在下游影响

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124221

Abdallah Alsaad , A.Mohammed Abubakar , Salihu Dasuki

{"title":"Work Intensification in hybrid workplace: The potential downstream effects on perceived exploitation and negative work outcomes","authors":"Abdallah Alsaad , A.Mohammed Abubakar , Salihu Dasuki","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124221","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124221","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While hybrid work arrangements (combining remote and office work) have been associated with increased Work Intensification (hereafter referred to as hybrid WI), the potential downstream effects on employee-organization relationships and subsequent employee behavior remain understudied. Drawing on the theoretical framing of Effort-Reward Balance, we propose that hybrid WI can influence the perception of exploitative employee-organization relationships (PEER) and employee anger, potentially leading to negative work outcomes such as employee cheating behaviors (ECBs). Data from a survey administered to 270 software and IT service workers on Prolific was analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). Our findings suggest a nuanced relationship between hybrid WI and employee negative behavior. Our analysis suggests that hybrid WI may indirectly influence ECBs through PEER. This study represents one of the initial investigations into the impact of hybrid workplace arrangements on employee-organization relationships, particularly focusing on PEER and its consequences. These findings provide significant contributions to theory advancement and offer practical implications for effectively managing hybrid workforces.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"218 ","pages":"Article 124221"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unraveling the unintended consequences of AI in agriculture: A netnographic analysis and tri-phasic framework for enhanced uncertainty management 揭示人工智能在农业中的意外后果：加强不确定性管理的网络分析和三相框架

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124209

Jad Jaber , Helmi Issa

{"title":"Unraveling the unintended consequences of AI in agriculture: A netnographic analysis and tri-phasic framework for enhanced uncertainty management","authors":"Jad Jaber , Helmi Issa","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124209","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124209","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The agricultural sector has been a slow adopter of AI technologies, primarily due to concerns over the unpredictability of AI and the inherent uncertainties within the industry itself. This hesitation stems from the sector's reliance on complex, variable conditions that challenge the stability of AI solutions. The convergence of AI's unpredictability and agriculture's inherent uncertainty calls for a closer examination of the unintended consequences of AI decision-making in this domain. This research addresses such a dilemma by employing a netnography design to analyze 15 podcasts. The analysis identified three critical themes: predictive dissonance, techno-indecisiveness, and readiness deficit. This research makes three valuable contributions by pioneering an empirical investigation into the unintended consequences of AI in agriculture at the decision-making level, developing an AI concentric-nested ecosystem at the deployment level, and introducing a quantifiable scale graph that acts as a tangible assessment tool for AI's unintended consequences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"218 ","pages":"Article 124209"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144170727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of the ambidexterity of University Technology Transfer Offices on their performance: The Spanish context 大学技术转移办公室的两面性对其绩效的影响：西班牙语境

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124224

Mariluz Fernández-Alles , Tamara Rodríguez-González , Mercedes Villanueva-Flores , Mirta Díaz-Fernández

{"title":"Impact of the ambidexterity of University Technology Transfer Offices on their performance: The Spanish context","authors":"Mariluz Fernández-Alles , Tamara Rodríguez-González , Mercedes Villanueva-Flores , Mirta Díaz-Fernández","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124224","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124224","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>University Technology Transfer Offices (UTTOs) are units created to promote knowledge transfer. They assist academics by creating academic spin-offs (ASOs) and managing contracts, consulting, licenses, and patents. These units have grown in size, age, experience, and professionalism, thereby gaining resources and networks to improve UTTOs’' performance. However, neither the creation of these units nor the presence of these characteristics are sufficient to improve transfer performance. Organizational UTTO ambidexterity, as a dynamic capability, and individual UTTO ambidexterity, as the individual orientation of UTTO employees, seems necessary to address two exploitative and explorative orientations to improve knowledge transfer. Exploitative orientation aims to provide UTTO services by seeking improvement, efficiency, and incremental innovation. Explorative orientation is oriented toward seeking new opportunities to provide new UTTO services and identify new customers for radical innovation. This study analyzes the impact of organizational and individual ambidexterity of Spanish UTTOs on their transfer performance. The regression analysis indicates that the organizational ambidexterity of UTTOs is critical for the number of ASOs. In addition, individual ambidexterity is relevant for obtaining higher contract and consultancy incomes and licenses. By contrast, the impact of organizational and individual ambidexterity on patents is yet to be determined.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"218 ","pages":"Article 124224"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144137893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Digital antecedents and mechanisms towards sustainable digital innovation ecosystems: examining the role of circular supply chain resilience 可持续数字创新生态系统的数字化前提和机制：循环供应链弹性的作用研究

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124220

Bing Zeng , Varun Chotia , Vinit Ghosh , Jiyang Cheng

{"title":"Digital antecedents and mechanisms towards sustainable digital innovation ecosystems: examining the role of circular supply chain resilience","authors":"Bing Zeng , Varun Chotia , Vinit Ghosh , Jiyang Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124220","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124220","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present study seeks to determine the connections among digital platform capabilities, digital market orientation, and circular supply chain resilience with sustainable digital innovation ecosystems. The study is designed to demonstrate how digital trust, digital openness, and other factors lay the foundation for developing circular supply chain resilience that can lead to sustainable innovation in a complex organizational context. An online survey of 293 employees was conducted in US and UK manufacturing firms. The findings show that digital platform capabilities and digital market orientation are positively related to a sustainable innovation ecosystem. The article also points out that digital openness and trust play a pivotal role in enabling the different supply chain stakeholders to collaborate, leading to resilient circular supply chain practices. The chain of digital openness, digital trust, and circular supply chain resiliency is the bedrock of sustainable innovation ecosystems. Companies that create digital platforms but are also oriented towards digital market orientation, transparency, and trust can develop resilient supply chains that help build a sustainable digital innovation ecosystem.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"218 ","pages":"Article 124220"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144155067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Digital technology adoption and SC recoverability. The mediating role of relationship transparency and SC production risk management capabilities 数字技术的采用和SC的可恢复性。关系透明度对供应链生产风险管理能力的中介作用

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124219

Nidhi Singh , Usama Awan , Sarah Basahel , Rsha Alghafes

{"title":"Digital technology adoption and SC recoverability. The mediating role of relationship transparency and SC production risk management capabilities","authors":"Nidhi Singh , Usama Awan , Sarah Basahel , Rsha Alghafes","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124219","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124219","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses a gap in the current research by investigating the relationship between BC based financial solutions and SC recoverability and financial resilience. Previous research provides little empirical evidence on how and under what conditions Fintech improves the manufacturing firm's financial resilience. This empirical research draws on the resource base view (RBV) to investigate the role of Fintech as a driver of better relationship transparency and SC production risk management for financial resilience. The data was collected from 295 engineering manufacturers in India. A key contribution of this study is that it provides new insights by highlighting the role of Blockchain Technology (BCT), built on the Ethereum-based system, in strengthening SC recoverability and enhancing relationship transparency. We present a research framework grounded in the Resource-Based View (RBV) that illustrates how blockchain technology (BCT) can provide firms with critical competencies for developing relationship transparency and managing production risks, thereby enhancing financial resilience in the SC. Relationship transparency, essential for SC recoverability, is pivotal in establishing the link between BCT and SC recoverability. Our findings advise SC managers that relationship transparency improves SC recoverability and may be an important source of financial resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"218 ","pages":"Article 124219"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144155066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How do politics, news media and the public frame the discourse on coal mining? Implications for the legitimacy, (de)stabilisation and transition of an industry regime 政治、新闻媒体和公众如何构建关于煤矿开采的话语？对行业制度的合法性、（去）稳定性和转型的影响

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124217

Jan Henrik Gruenhagen , Stephen Cox

{"title":"How do politics, news media and the public frame the discourse on coal mining? Implications for the legitimacy, (de)stabilisation and transition of an industry regime","authors":"Jan Henrik Gruenhagen , Stephen Cox","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124217","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124217","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The use of coal for energy generation is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, adversely affecting the climate and attempts to achieve net zero. Yet coal mining is also an important pillar of national economies such as Australia, provoking a contested discourse about the legitimacy of coal mining. We conceptualise the framing of coal mining as reflecting legitimacy pressures through discourse and agenda setting in the economic and socio-political environment that may lead to changes in industry regimes. We thereby examine how coal mining is framed within different arenas of discourse, and how this framing has changed over time. Specifically, we apply natural language processing and topic modelling to analyse and compare a large amount of text data capturing parliamentary documents and debates, news media reports and debates in the broader public over a period of more than 30 years. Our findings reveal that the discourse on coal mining among policymakers is dominated by economic framing, as opposed to a strong socio-political framing in the broader public. This suggests a mismatch between how coal mining is viewed by policymakers focussing on economic benefits versus parts of the broader public raising concerns over environmental and climate issues. Framing of the discourse in news media is more balanced. Our analysis demonstrates that the framing of coal mining has remained remarkably consistent, overall suggesting continuous legitimacy and a relatively stable industry regime.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"218 ","pages":"Article 124217"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144134233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Understanding digital capabilities and their impacts on Australian agri-food supply chain resilience: Engineering vs. socio-ecological thinking 理解数字能力及其对澳大利亚农业食品供应链弹性的影响：工程与社会生态思维

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124191

Firouzeh Rosa Taghikhah , Daniel D Prior , Reza Hafezi , Derek Baker , Petr Matous

{"title":"Understanding digital capabilities and their impacts on Australian agri-food supply chain resilience: Engineering vs. socio-ecological thinking","authors":"Firouzeh Rosa Taghikhah , Daniel D Prior , Reza Hafezi , Derek Baker , Petr Matous","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124191","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124191","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many agri-food supply chains (SCs) are vulnerable to sudden disruptions (i.e., shocks), which can have devastating impacts. SC member firms’ digital capabilities (as routinized and integrated resource bundles) have the potential to address these challenges, yet their nature and differentiated impacts on engineering versus socio-ecological resilience are not well understood in the present literature. The purpose of this study is to address these gaps. First, a comprehensive taxonomy of five digital capabilities (labelled LogisticsTech, SecureData, ClientValue, InsightDecision, and InnovateTech) is developed, along with a set of nine resilience criteria/sub-criteria useful for resiliency evaluation. This was achieved through using a narrative literature review, a content analysis, validated by a Delphi study, and semi-structured interviews. Second, the relative impacts of these capabilities on resilience are assessed through pairwise comparison, network analysis, and system dynamics modelling across six Australian agri-food SCs (Grains, Red Meat, Dairy, Horticulture, Seafood, and Wine). The study findings reveal that Australian agri-food SC members’ digital capabilities play distinct but interconnected roles in enhancing resilience, with their impact varying across persistence (engineering), adaptation, and transformation (socio-ecological) over different time frames. LogisticsTech is crucial for short-term, while SecureData safeguards long-term persistence. Moreover, InsightDecision supports immediate adaptation, ClientValue facilitates long-term adaptation, and InnovateTech drives systemic transformation and future-ready SCs. The study offers strategic insights for managers and policymakers to align digital technology adoption with resilience objectives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"218 ","pages":"Article 124191"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144134232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0