Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第2页

Designing a global resilient vaccine supply chain: Forecasting with hybrid neural network 全球弹性疫苗供应链设计：混合神经网络预测

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124524

Ehsan Torshizi , Fatemeh Sabouhi , Ali Bozorgi-Amiri

{"title":"Designing a global resilient vaccine supply chain: Forecasting with hybrid neural network","authors":"Ehsan Torshizi , Fatemeh Sabouhi , Ali Bozorgi-Amiri","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124524","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124524","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the present research, a hybrid decision-making and data-driven optimization approach is developed based on economic management theory to design a global COVID-19 vaccine supply chain. Economic management theory includes three complementary theories of information processing, transaction cost economics, and the resource-based view/dynamic capabilities to examine the logic of the proposed approach. The first phase involves assessing the efficiency of foreign suppliers and manufacturers through non-radial data envelopment analysis. In this phase, the foreign exchange rate parameter is forecasted using the hybrid neural network. Then, the second phase introduces a multi-objective optimization model for designing a vaccine supply chain under uncertain conditions. Flow complexity, node complexity, and node criticality are considered in the model to increase the overall resilience of the network. To deal with the uncertainty of the problem, a stochastic robust optimization model is employed. The objective functions aim to maximize supply chain efficiency and minimize the non-resilience of the network and the total cost. The approach implemented in this research is validated by an actual-world case study in Iran. The findings highlight that resilience indicators can improve economic costs by up to 13% and network efficiency by up to 18% under the worst-case pandemic scenario. Also, the implemented forecasting algorithm performs better than other methods based on R2, RMSE, MSE, and MAE metrics. Lastly, a comprehensive analysis is performed on the computational results obtained, which derives some practical managerial insights.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124524"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146096056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Invention complexity, latent innovation capabilities, and economic development in upper middle-income countries 发明复杂性、潜在创新能力与中高收入国家的经济发展

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124565

Muhammad Salar Khan , Maurice Kugler , Chad A. Smith

{"title":"Invention complexity, latent innovation capabilities, and economic development in upper middle-income countries","authors":"Muhammad Salar Khan , Maurice Kugler , Chad A. Smith","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124565","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124565","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how upper middle-income countries (UMICs) transition from imitation- to innovation-led growth, and whether sustained innovation capabilities drive long-run economic development. Building on the World Bank's <em>World Development Report</em> 2024 (WDR 2024), we develop a unified theoretical and methodological framework integrating endogenous growth, Schumpeterian growth, economic complexity, and entrepreneurial self-discovery approaches. We introduce two novel indicators: the <em>Invention Complexity Index (ICI)</em>, which measures the diversity and sophistication of national invention capabilities, and the <em>Invention–Production Complexity Gap (IPCG)</em>, which captures latent innovation capabilities as the gap between invention and production capabilities. Using European Patent Office PATSTAT data (1987–2019) and a panel of national indicators for 67 countries, we estimate pooled OLS models with fixed effects across three income-range samples. The results show that invention complexity is strongly associated with income levels and that latent innovation capabilities become a robust predictor of growth within the UMIC range: a one-standard-deviation increase in the IPCG corresponds to a 0.50% increase in annual growth. They also reveal divergence across countries—clear evidence of an upper middle-income trap. These findings provide empirical support for the middle-income trap hypothesis, the Schumpeterian distance-to-frontier hypothesis, and the WDR 2024 dual-transition framework, revealing that the shift from imitation- to innovation-led growth is a stage-specific challenge concentrated in the UMIC range. The study contributes new theoretical and methodological tools for measuring invention complexity and latent innovation capabilities and offers policy insights on aligning innovation and industrial strategies to foster structural transformation, escape the middle-income trap, and advance toward high-income status.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124565"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Navigating sustainable growth: Green innovation as a mediator between CSR Engagement and firm value in emerging markets 引导可持续增长：新兴市场中绿色创新作为企业社会责任参与与企业价值之间的中介

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124566

Zhe Sun , Liang Zhao , Hind Alofaysan , Bhumika Gupta , Vikram Kumar Sharma

引用次数: 0

How does corporate greenwashing affect firm resilience –Causal inference utilizing dual machine learning techniques 企业“漂绿”如何影响企业弹性——利用双机器学习技术的因果推理

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124561

Fu Jia , Dingguo Hu , Lujie Chen

{"title":"How does corporate greenwashing affect firm resilience –Causal inference utilizing dual machine learning techniques","authors":"Fu Jia , Dingguo Hu , Lujie Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124561","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of accelerating climate change, corporate greenwashing (CGW), has emerged as a critical governance risk undermining long-term sustainable development. Grounded in dynamic capability theory supplemented by paradox theory, this study unveils systematically the causal mechanisms through which CGW affects firm resilience for the first time as far as we are aware. Drawing on panel data from Chinese listed manufacturing firms between 2017 and 2023, we construct a novel CGW index using text analysis and measure firm resilience via the volatility of total factor productivity. To address endogeneity concerns and accommodate high-dimensional controls, we adopt a double machine learning approach. Our findings show: (1) CGW significantly undermines firm resilience by distorting the dynamic capability cycle of sensing, seizing, and reconfiguring; (2) financing constraints act as a negative mediating mechanism in that CGW exacerbates information asymmetries, thereby raising financing costs, whereas operational slack functions as a positive mediator, as redundant resources provide short-term buffers against external shocks; and (3) environmental regulation intensity and investor attention positively moderate this negative relationship, meaning private enterprises exhibit greater vulnerability due to limited access to policy-based resources. This research contributes to the theoretical advancement of firm resilience by introducing CGW as a “dark side” capability and identifies mechanisms of internal mediation and external moderation. The findings provide practical insights for firms aiming to mitigate CGW, optimize resource allocation, and enhance risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124561"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Elderly consumers' reaction to an eHealth app: The critical role of relational-emotional aspects of technology adoption 老年消费者对电子健康应用程序的反应：技术采用中关系情感方面的关键作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124558

Shuili Du , Richard P. Bagozzi , Chunyan Xie , Kristi Bjørnes Skeie Keleghan , Tatiana A. Iakovleva , Elin Merethe Oftedal

{"title":"Elderly consumers' reaction to an eHealth app: The critical role of relational-emotional aspects of technology adoption","authors":"Shuili Du , Richard P. Bagozzi , Chunyan Xie , Kristi Bjørnes Skeie Keleghan , Tatiana A. Iakovleva , Elin Merethe Oftedal","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124558","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124558","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the aging population and the exponential growth in digital health, investigating elderly consumers' eHealth technology adoption is an important and timely topic. This research examines the relational-emotional aspects of technology adoption among the elderly using a real-world eHealth app aimed at addressing malnutrition – a critical health issue among the elderly population. Results from two studies highlight the important roles of the perceived effect of the eHealth app on caretaker relationships and anticipated positive emotions in elderly's adoption of the eHealth app. Further, we show that anthropomorphizing the eHealth app could backfire among elderly consumers with low health literacy, but not among those with high health literacy. By identifying and validating relational and emotional pathways to adoption, our study deepens and extends current models of technology acceptance. It also contributes to the growing discourse on inclusive digital health by highlighting the unique complexity of elderly consumers' decision-making processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124558"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Diagnosing pharmaceutical regulatory agencies: A metacybernetic framework for innovation and governance 诊断药品监管机构：创新和治理的元控制论框架

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124584

Gandolfo Dominici , Maurice Yolles

{"title":"Diagnosing pharmaceutical regulatory agencies: A metacybernetic framework for innovation and governance","authors":"Gandolfo Dominici , Maurice Yolles","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124584","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124584","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores how pharmaceutical regulatory agencies can be understood and enhanced by applying a metacybernetic framework. It addresses the key research question: <em>How can regulatory agencies in the pharmaceutical sector function as adaptive systems capable of timely sensing and evaluating emerging technologies, while preserving systemic safeguards for public health and safety?</em></div><div>Drawing on <em>Mindset Agency Theory</em> (MAT), it applies a triadic subagency model to diagnose regulators' internal dynamics. Regulators are interpreted as evolving living systems that are capable of reflexive learning, stakeholder engagement, and ethical orientation. The model is grounded in systems theory and social cybernetics and is supported by examples from regulatory practices.</div><div>This first application of the metacybernetic subagency framework to pharmaceutical regulation, offers a novel perspective for reform in the face of rising technological complexity, public scrutiny, and global health challenges.</div><div>The triadic framework shows that agencies enhance adaptability by cultivating affective responsiveness (engagement), cognitive capability (data assimilation and learning), and spiritual integrity (ethical commitment). Current models often underutilise these capacities, resulting in rigid, siloed decision-making.</div><div>This study extends metacybernetics into public governance, opening new avenues for analysing institutional reflexivity, resilience, and regulatory ethics.</div><div>The findings suggest practical reforms, including ethical reviews, patient engagement, adaptive approvals, and AI-augmented decision support.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124584"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An activity system perspective on smart product service systems 智能产品服务系统的活动系统视角

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124557

Isabel Fischer , Marcel Papert , Alexander Leischnig , Günter Prockl

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Unveiling the path to the fourth industrial revolution: Exploring technology adoption and firm-level barriers 揭示第四次工业革命之路：探索技术采用和企业层面的障碍

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124563

Chinh Hoang-Duc , Kien Hoang-Le , Tuan Nguyen-Anh , Linh Nguyen-Thi-Thuy , Uyen Nguyen-Dinh , Huong Nguyen-Thi-Lan , Nguyen To-The

{"title":"Unveiling the path to the fourth industrial revolution: Exploring technology adoption and firm-level barriers","authors":"Chinh Hoang-Duc , Kien Hoang-Le , Tuan Nguyen-Anh , Linh Nguyen-Thi-Thuy , Uyen Nguyen-Dinh , Huong Nguyen-Thi-Lan , Nguyen To-The","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Technology adoption is an important driving force for economic growth. This study investigates the determinants of technology adoption among firms in Vietnam using nationally representative enterprise survey data focusing on prominent technology in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). It focuses on three main barriers to adoption – financial constraints, human resource limitations, and perceived practicality – and assesses their empirical relevance towards different measurements of technology adoption levels. Our analysis employs logit, ordered logit, and Poisson regressions, complemented by inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment to represent selection on observables. The findings indicate that financial capacity does not significantly influence firms' adoption decisions. In contrast, human resource factors, especially firms' information technology capability, play a crucial role by underscoring the importance of digital skills in the workforce. Additionally, firms' perceptions of the practical value of technologies, particularly regarding competitiveness and profitability, are strongly associated with higher adoption levels. The findings offer policy-relevant insights for promoting effective 4IR technology adoption in developing economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124563"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How does digital intelligent knowledge orchestration enhance green service innovation in manufacturing enterprises? Based on the perspective of enterprise relationship resilience 数字化智能知识编排如何促进制造企业绿色服务创新？基于企业关系弹性的视角

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124575

Hongna Tian, Liyan Zhao

{"title":"How does digital intelligent knowledge orchestration enhance green service innovation in manufacturing enterprises? Based on the perspective of enterprise relationship resilience","authors":"Hongna Tian, Liyan Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124575","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124575","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In today's complex and dynamic market environment of digital intelligence, manufacturing enterprises regard green service innovation as a crucial means to expand revenue sources and engender competitive advantages. Drawing on Stimulus-Organism-Response theory, this study constructs the ‘digital intelligent knowledge (stimulus)–capability building (organism)–innovation behaviour (response)’ research framework, and empirically examines the impact of digital intelligent knowledge orchestration, from both scale and efficiency perspectives, on the green service innovation in manufacturing enterprises. Next, it investigates the mediating effect of enterprise relationship resilience from the perspective of research and development, supply, and governance. Finally, it examines the enterprise reputation's moderating effect. The results show that: (1) Digital intelligent knowledge orchestration scale and efficiency can significantly promote the green service innovation in manufacturing enterprises. (2) Enterprise relationship resilience positively mediates this relationship. (3) Enterprise reputation has a positive moderating effect.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124575"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sustainable last-mile delivery: Understanding perceived benefits and risks of AI-automated delivery drones in France 可持续的最后一英里交付：了解法国人工智能自动交付无人机的预期收益和风险

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124576

Lars Meyer-Waarden , Julien Cloarec , Stéphane Salgado , Vincent Favarin

{"title":"Sustainable last-mile delivery: Understanding perceived benefits and risks of AI-automated delivery drones in France","authors":"Lars Meyer-Waarden , Julien Cloarec , Stéphane Salgado , Vincent Favarin","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124576","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124576","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the adoption of delivery drones in last-mile logistics by extending the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology 2 (UTAUT2) with constructs related to well-being, perceived technology risk, privacy concerns, and environmental concerns. Drawing on a 2x2x2 experimental design involving 3212 French participants, we examine how physical accidents, cyberattacks, product criticality, and environmental values shape consumers' performance expectancy, social influence, risk perception, and behavioral intentions. The findings show that environmental concerns enhance the positive impact of performance expectancy and social influence on well-being, while unexpectedly reducing the negative effect of privacy concerns. Product criticality significantly weakens the relationship between well-being and adoption intention. This paper contributes theoretically by integrating sustainability and perceived risk theory into UTAUT2, thereby advancing understanding of how consumers evaluate novel autonomous technologies under conditions of uncertainty and ecological awareness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124576"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0