Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第3页

Decoding energy market turbulence: A TVP-VAR connectedness analysis of climate policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk shocks 能源市场动荡解码：气候政策不确定性和地缘政治风险冲击的 TVP-VAR 关联性分析

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123863

Ling Liu , Mohamad H. Shahrour , Michal Wojewodzki , Alireza Rohani

{"title":"Decoding energy market turbulence: A TVP-VAR connectedness analysis of climate policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk shocks","authors":"Ling Liu , Mohamad H. Shahrour , Michal Wojewodzki , Alireza Rohani","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123863","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123863","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The ongoing escalation in geopolitical and climate uncertainties, coupled with the urgent issue of climate change, has profoundly affected the economic and political landscape, significantly increasing volatility in the energy and financial markets. This study investigates the dynamic interactions and spillover effects between geopolitical risks (GPR) and U.S. climate policy uncertainty (CPU) indices, energy markets (crude oil and natural gas prices), and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields from January 2008 to December 2023. We use the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to capture the studied nexus's nonlinear and evolving nature. Findings show that GPR and CPU jointly affect the volatility and connectedness of the studied markets. While GPR has immediate and more pronounced effects, particularly on oil prices, CPU exerts a more prolonged and diffuse impact. Furthermore, the results indicate that oil prices (U.S. Treasury yields) are the shocks' primary transmitter (receiver) to (from) other markets. The study suggests that policymakers should consider diversifying energy sources and enhancing strategic reserves to mitigate the adverse effects of these uncertainties. Additionally, the findings support an expedited transition to renewable energy sources, less sensitive to geopolitical and policy-related disruptions, in alignment with global efforts to combat climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123863"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142586651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Green drives: Understanding how environmental propensity, range and technological anxiety shape electric vehicle adoption intentions 绿色驱动：了解环保倾向、续航能力和技术焦虑如何影响电动汽车的采用意向

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123859

Vikas Kumar , Arun Kumar Kaushik , Farima Noravesh , Rahul Sindhwani , K. Mathiyazhagan

{"title":"Green drives: Understanding how environmental propensity, range and technological anxiety shape electric vehicle adoption intentions","authors":"Vikas Kumar , Arun Kumar Kaushik , Farima Noravesh , Rahul Sindhwani , K. Mathiyazhagan","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123859","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123859","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Electric vehicles (EVs) might reduce transportation-related carbon emissions and solve environmental problems. Therefore, the present research examines the effects of environmental propensity (EP), subjective norms (SN), and range and technology anxiety on perceived behavioral control (PBC) and attitude towards EV adoption in India and Australia. Furthermore, the study explores PBC and attitude's influence and mediating effects on behavioral intention (BI) to EV adoption. Data were collected online and offline from 605 respondents (317 Indian and 288 Australian) and examined using the Structural Equation Modeling technique. The findings reveal that environmental propensity, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and attitude towards EVs are the primary constructs influencing customers' intention to adopt EVs. Subjective norms is the most prominent factor influencing customers' intention to adopt EVs in India and Australia; therefore, industry practitioners targeting these economies must analyze these factors adequately. The research provides meaningful implications to support EV adoption and enriches the understanding of consumers' adoption intention in both countries. Hence, the research findings will benefit different EV manufacturers targeting these nations for EV companies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123859"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142586649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Innovation ecosystem based on low-carbon technology: Value co-creation mechanism and differential game analysis 基于低碳技术的创新生态系统：价值共创机制与差异博弈分析

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123852

Ren-Jie Zhang , Hsing-Wei Tai , Zheng-Xu Cao , Kuo-Tai Cheng , Chia-Chen Wei

{"title":"Innovation ecosystem based on low-carbon technology: Value co-creation mechanism and differential game analysis","authors":"Ren-Jie Zhang , Hsing-Wei Tai , Zheng-Xu Cao , Kuo-Tai Cheng , Chia-Chen Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123852","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123852","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of global carbon emission reduction trends, the mechanism of value co-creation plays an instrumental role in the construction of innovative ecosystems based on low-carbon technologies. This study introduces a triple helix analytical framework for value co-creation in innovative ecosystems and constructs a three-party differential game model that incorporates innovators, service providers, and regulators. The model examines the conditions of strategic stability and sensitivity among different game players and makes the following conclusions: (1) Innovators' strategies are linearly influenced by the combined strategies of service providers and regulators, while the effect of innovators and regulators on service providers is non-linear. (2) During the initial stages of the innovation ecosystem, the regulator plays the roles of architect and controller. The <em>NES</em> strategy, aimed at reducing intervention, is triggered when the <em>LCI</em> and <em>GRS</em> strategies exceed certain thresholds. (3) Fiscal subsidies accelerate the convergence of the evolution curves of innovators' and service providers' strategies but also increase the cost burden for regulators, leading them toward passive management measures. (4) Upper-level accountability promotes the evolution of the three-party differential game system from “chaos” to “order,” with the intermediary effect becoming the main route influencing innovation strategy choices. Lastly, the findings suggest that policy measures, such as empowering low-carbon technology innovation with digital technologies, enhancing green service capabilities, and improving green technology assessment systems, may provide empirical evidence for decision-making by management departments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123852"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142586648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Individuals' attitudes and their adoption intentions of central bank digital currency: Combining theories and analytics for deeper insights 个人对中央银行数字货币的态度及其采用意向：将理论与分析相结合，获得更深入的见解

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123857

Christian Nedu Osakwe , Oluwatobi A. Ogunmokun , Islam Elgammal , Michael Adu Kwarteng

{"title":"Individuals' attitudes and their adoption intentions of central bank digital currency: Combining theories and analytics for deeper insights","authors":"Christian Nedu Osakwe , Oluwatobi A. Ogunmokun , Islam Elgammal , Michael Adu Kwarteng","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123857","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123857","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Leveraging a multi-theoretical and multi-method approach, this study investigated the factors influencing individuals' attitudes and intentions towards adopting central bank digital currency (CBDC). Data from Nigeria, a pioneering CBDC nation, were analysed using partial least squares structural equation modelling, which revealed that affordance-based positive valences, including seamless transactions, time convenience, and the societal positive valence of financial inclusion, are the strongest predictors of positive attitudes and, subsequently, usage intentions. Perceived financial cost emerged as the most significant barrier. Lifestyle compatibility demonstrated a moderate positive association with attitude. Further, fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis identified four necessary conditions for high usage intentions: seamless transactions, trust in the central bank, positive attitude, and the societal positive valence of financial inclusion. Additionally, six alternative configurations sufficient for high usage intentions were also revealed. These findings offer valuable insights for both theoretical research and policymakers, informing strategies to facilitate early CBDC adoption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123857"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142586650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

E-participation in energy transitions: What does it mean? Chances and challenges within Germany's Energiewende 能源转型中的电子参与：这意味着什么？德国能源转型的机遇与挑战

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123839

Jörg Radtke

{"title":"E-participation in energy transitions: What does it mean? Chances and challenges within Germany's Energiewende","authors":"Jörg Radtke","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123839","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123839","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does e-participation generate more democratic legitimacy in the context of the German <em>Energiewende</em> through more input and procedural justice, better outputs and environmental outcomes that are accepted by the public? In recent years, many forms of e-participation have emerged, and space for experiments with visual and interactive technologies has been created. However, research evaluating e-participation technologies in energy transitions is lacking. This study uses interviews with 33 stakeholders in a planned wind farm project, combined with online survey results, to derive empirical insights into attitudes towards and preferences for e-participation. On the one hand, we observe openness towards new options for creative input and visualization-based online tools and virtual realities. On the other hand, stakeholders fear vulnerabilities and are skeptical about the efficacy of online discourse. Institutional stakeholders primarily see risks in civic participation, while citizens themselves see the benefits. Unexploited potential for creative input, deliberation, and collaborative planning could be leveraged to increase democratic legitimacy. In this context, better outputs are not synonymous with accepting outcomes, but can include changes to or even rejection of plans based on public preferences and concerns. This potential remains largely untapped, however, and requires a willingness to participate, thus calling for mobilization strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123839"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142579009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How to recognize and measure the impact of phasing urbanization on eco-environment quality: An empirical case study of 19 urban agglomerations in China 如何认识和衡量阶段性城市化对生态环境质量的影响？中国 19 个城市群的实证案例研究

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123845

Anmeng Sha , Jianjun Zhang , Yujie Pan , Shouguo Zhang

{"title":"How to recognize and measure the impact of phasing urbanization on eco-environment quality: An empirical case study of 19 urban agglomerations in China","authors":"Anmeng Sha , Jianjun Zhang , Yujie Pan , Shouguo Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123845","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123845","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid urbanization has exerted substantial pressure on eco-environmental quality (EEQ) in most big cities worldwide, yet the precise manner in which EEQ responds to phasing urbanization remains unclear. This study endeavors to illuminate the relationship between EEQ and the stages of urban development by quantifying EEQ and urbanization levels across 19 urban agglomerations in China, leveraging the insights garnered from multiple remote sensing and social-economic data. The reasons leading to different response patterns were analyzed through the differences in the trends of EEQ at each urbanization stage. The conclusions are as follows. 1) With a 207 % increase in the urbanization level, the overall EEQ fluctuated slightly, but it decreased significantly in areas with a high urbanization level. 2) EEQ was found to be negatively correlated with urbanization at the microscopic scale (PMMCC = −0.25), and the response pattern of “rise - fall - recovery” of EEQ with increasing urbanization levels was proposed at the macroscopic scale. 3) Ecological improvement of pre- and post-urbanized areas dominate the shift of urban agglomerations EEQ from fall to recovery. This study can help to understand the evolutionary pattern of EEQ in urbanization development and provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of sustainable urban development policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123845"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142571302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Public perceptions of responsible innovation: Validation of a scale measuring societal perceptions of responsible innovation in science and technology 公众对负责任创新的看法：验证衡量社会对负责任的科技创新的看法的量表

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123849

Sarah V. Bentley, Emma Schleiger, Rod McCrea, Rebecca Coates, Elizabeth Hobman

{"title":"Public perceptions of responsible innovation: Validation of a scale measuring societal perceptions of responsible innovation in science and technology","authors":"Sarah V. Bentley, Emma Schleiger, Rod McCrea, Rebecca Coates, Elizabeth Hobman","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123849","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123849","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Today, boundaries between innovation, science, and technology have loosened, with innovation often driving technology built upon scientific discovery. This combination has brought us the internet, electric vehicles, and space exploration. But it has not all been good. The economization of innovation has contributed to social inequity, progressed autonomous weaponry, and put the ecological health of our planet at risk. For these reasons, the question of a responsible delivery of innovation has gathered momentum. The essence of Responsible Innovation lies in the pursuit of a moral and functional reciprocity between science and society. This pursuit has led to the establishment of principles and frameworks, however, there remains a need to measure Responsible Innovation in real-world settings, particularly through the eyes of society. This paper presents the psychometric validation of a new scale measuring Public Perceptions of Responsible Innovation. Tested with two samples (Wave 1: <em>N</em> = 4080; Wave 2: <em>N</em> = 2127), results demonstrate the scale's validity, including evidence of a four-factor model aligned with the concepts of anticipation, inclusion, reflexivity, and responsiveness. Further evidence of predictive validity suggests that the scale is fit for purpose as a measure capturing the essence of Responsible Innovation — <em>science for and with society</em>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123849"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142571300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A socio-cognitive analysis of innovation diffusion: Interventionism and substantiveness 创新扩散的社会认知分析：干预主义和实质性

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123847

Jiun-Yan Lai , Shih-Chang Hung

引用次数: 0

Carrot first, stick second? Environmental policy-mix sequencing and green technologies 胡萝卜第一，大棒第二？环境政策组合排序与绿色技术

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123835

Kinga B. Tchorzewska , Pablo del Rio , Jose Garcia-Quevedo , Ester Martinez-Ros

{"title":"Carrot first, stick second? Environmental policy-mix sequencing and green technologies","authors":"Kinga B. Tchorzewska , Pablo del Rio , Jose Garcia-Quevedo , Ester Martinez-Ros","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123835","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123835","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Eco-innovations are considered key in the transition towards a more sustainable economy. However, since there are several barriers to the adoption of eco-innovations, different instruments have been proposed to encourage their uptake, leading to instrument mixes. Analysis of these mixes has been scarce in the eco-innovation literature and mostly focused on static rather than dynamic combinations of instruments. This paper tries to cover this gap by assessing the <em>sequencing</em> of instruments to promote eco-innovation. To that aim we use a panel database of investments in green technologies by Spanish firms between 2010–2020. Our results show that the order in which the instruments are introduced (sequencing) affects the adoption of eco-innovation, although the effective sequencing effect slightly differs for different environmental technological innovation types (cleaner production vs. end-of-pipe). In both cases, using subsidies (“carrots”) first and then using environmental taxes (“sticks”) positively and significantly influence the adoption of environmental technologies. Results from heterogeneous analysis confirms that this is especially true for small and medium firms. Within carrots, it seems tax credits and subsidies are substitutes, whatever the sequence of their introduction is. These results have clear policy implications which cannot be derived from analyses of static policy mixes. They suggest that, if the aim is to promote the adoption of eco-innovations, carrots should be used first, and then sticks should be adopted. In addition, it warns against using tax credits and subsidies together, given their redundancy in promoting eco-innovation. If subsidies are introduced after tax credits have already been applied (or the other way around), substantial inefficiencies can be expected, increasing the costs of eco-innovation promotion without any added value in terms of effectiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123835"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142571299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Probabilistic electricity price forecasting by integrating interpretable model 通过整合可解释模型进行概率电价预测

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123846

He Jiang , Yawei Dong , Yao Dong , Jianzhou Wang

{"title":"Probabilistic electricity price forecasting by integrating interpretable model","authors":"He Jiang , Yawei Dong , Yao Dong , Jianzhou Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123846","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123846","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The establishment of a high-quality and efficient interpretable probability prediction model is crucial for the development of the electricity market. However, challenges related to prediction instability and interpretability limit electricity price probability forecasting. To address these issues, we propose a novel interpretable electricity price probability prediction model, L-NBeatsX, which incorporates a multifactor pathway. Initially, by adaptively fusing NBeatsX and LassoNet models, we effectively handle the multifactor nature of electricity price prediction. The fusion mechanism enables L-NBeatsX to utilize a subset of features, thereby enhancing both accuracy and interpretability. Furthermore, the integration of skip connections from input to output in the fusion process enhances the robustness and flexibility of L-NBeatsX predictions. Additionally, we introduce unstable correction factors into the loss function to improve the model’s adaptability in probability prediction. By mitigating the impact of instability factors, we effectively reduce the cost of prediction instability while improving the accuracy and reliability of results. Empirical studies conducted across four distinct electricity markets demonstrate the superior performance of L-NBeatsX in electricity price probability forecasting, providing valuable insights for decision-making in the electricity market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123846"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142560836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0