María Eizaguirre , Jose Antonio Vicente-Pascual , Andreas Kallmuenzer
{"title":"Learning through decision episodes: A narrative-QCA study of ESG founder typologies in sustainable startups","authors":"María Eizaguirre , Jose Antonio Vicente-Pascual , Andreas Kallmuenzer","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124562","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores how early-stage sustainable entrepreneurs interpret and navigate trade-offs between financial imperatives and ESG commitments, and how these moments of choice catalyse entrepreneurial learning. Drawing on a mixed-method approach, the research introduces “decision episodes” as critical moments that trigger reflection, identity strain, and strategic action. Based on six life-history interviews with startup founders in the fashion industry, the qualitative phase identifies recurring tensions that structure the fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) of 340 sustainable fashion crowdfunding campaigns, which provide the empirical setting for observing patterns of entrepreneurial sustainability. Findings show that learning is triggered by moral tension and internal dilemmas that expose incoherence between identity and strategy. Circularity emerges as essential to give governance operational force and strategic direction; without credible circular practices, even principled governance fails to generate legitimacy or traction. The study develops a predictive taxonomy of founder types by aligning moral-symbolic ESG framings with operational choices. It contributes to theory by linking entrepreneurial learning to ESG governance through the lens of emancipation and liminality, using crowdfunding as the empirical arena in which this learning becomes observable, and by offering practical insights for ecosystem actors seeking to support value-driven ventures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124562"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"AI adoption in healthcare organizations: Spheres of development and the virtue of visible value","authors":"Rikke Duus , Mike Cooray , Simon Lilley","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124541","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124541","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the significant potential of artificial intelligence (AI), many public healthcare organizations struggle to adopt this technology. Simultaneously, empirical research on the factors that influence AI adoption in public healthcare settings remains scarce. We address this gap with a qualitative study with senior healthcare leaders who hold responsibility for the adoption and development of AI-enabled solutions within two leading National Healthcare Service (NHS) Trusts in the United Kingdom. Drawing upon the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework to make sense of our findings, we reveal nine factors that influence AI adoption. Significantly, we buttress our use of the TOE framework by highlighting how each TOE context can evolve into a sphere of AI development and explore the positively mediating role of a meta-factor that we term ‘visible value’ in that process. Visible value can be explained as the demonstrated or executed positive impact relating to AI adoption activities, where the value can be vividly seen, experienced, agreed upon and, ideally, measured, and helps to drive momentum internally and/or with key external stakeholders. Generation of visible value helps to legitimize and build confidence in continued AI activities. We thus develop existing theoretical resources to advance practical understanding of AI adoption in public healthcare organizations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124541"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Sustainable technology evolution in innovation ecosystems: A regulatory framework for (non)-convergent technologies","authors":"Christopher Agyapong Siaw , Joseph Amankwah-Amoah","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124593","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124593","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Technological convergence is a critical driver of technological evolution and industrial transformation, yet, convergence also generates complex ethical, sustainability, and regulatory challenges that remain poorly understood and insufficiently theorized. This study advances a conceptual framework that explains the regulatory mechanisms shaping convergence and non-convergence dynamics across three ecosystem layers: components, products and applications, and support and infrastructure. By distinguishing these layers, the framework reveals how interdependent evolution can raise ethical, sustainability, and regulatory concerns at different levels. The study advances theory by (1) reconceptualizing convergence as a multi-layered phenomenon, (2) expanding analysis beyond appropriability indicators such as patents to include development-based mechanisms like licensing, (3) proposing a dual regulatory role in balancing innovation development and appropriation, and (4) showing how regulation conditions the effects of convergence and non-convergence on technological sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"226 ","pages":"Article 124593"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146191663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A structural-evolutionary rationale for public support of private technological innovation","authors":"Kenneth I. Carlaw , Gregory Bridgett","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124539","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124539","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dynamic competition in technological innovation drives long run economic growth. We find a rationale for public support of private technological innovation in features of this process which are central to our appreciative structural-evolutionary growth theory presented here. Agents face uncertainty and allocate resources to innovative endeavors based on subjective perceptions of potential opportunities that are generated by and limited to the evolving structural context in which they operate. Efforts cannot be evaluated on optimality criteria of equilibrium models because much of the value that may come to be associated with originating innovations is yet to be determined over the uncertain futures of their development trajectories. The system's history determines its present and future states. Influencing agent behaviours with respect to technological innovation alters the evolutionary path of economic growth. Policy that is historically conditioned, selectively focused and embedded in the structure of technology and the economy induces beneficial technological innovation trajectories. This role is absent from the equilibrium approach to economic growth theory in which fully-informed agents allocate resources based on calculations of optimal returns, producing growth on a stationary balanced growth path. In this approach, policy's sole purpose is the correction of divergence between social and private returns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124539"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145980363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lei Shen , Qingyue Shi , Debadrita Panda , Vinit Parida
{"title":"Digital technology diffusion through supply chain orchestration","authors":"Lei Shen , Qingyue Shi , Debadrita Panda , Vinit Parida","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124554","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124554","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital technology diffusion is reshaping innovation across supply chain dynamics and ecosystem partners. Prior work often looks at one firm or uniform settings, missing how technology diffusion need to be orchestrated by ecosystem leader across diverse suppliers and other actors. To address this gap, this study employs an exploratory case study of the intelligent vehicle ecosystem, focusing on an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and six supply chain partners. Although positioned in the supply chain, these actors influence the wider ecosystem thereby affecting technology diffusion beyond dyadic ties. Drawing on 35 interviews, observations, and secondary data, the research advances the technology diffusion and innovation ecosystem literatures in three ways. First, it highlights the evolving role of focal actor as ecosystem leader, demonstrating their progression from transformational to collaborative and ultimately empowering roles across different phases of digital technology diffusion. Second, it identifies three orchestration mechanisms, namely knowledge orchestration, incentive aligned orchestration, and market driven orchestration, and specifies when each should be deployed in response to partner-specific requirements. Third, it offers a novel perspective on how ecosystem leaders shift value propositions to include both core and peripheral partners. From a practical standpoint, the study offers OEMs actionable guidance to diagnose their diffusion context and select appropriate orchestration mechanism. It also provides policymakers with insights for designing targeted instruments that strengthen digital diffusion and support sustainable industrial growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124554"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The digital-environmental tension: Managerial attention to digital transformation and energy consumption in healthcare organizations","authors":"Dingli Xi , Minhao Zhang , Gianluca Veronesi","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124519","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124519","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital transformation is broadly recognized as a promising approach to solving complex and longstanding organizational challenges. However, its environmental implications, particularly within the public sector, remain underexplored. Drawing on the attention-based view, this study addresses this gap by investigating how managerial attention to digital transformation impacts organizational environmental performance. We utilize a fixed-effects model approach to conduct the analysis based on a sample of 118 NHS Foundation Trusts in England between 2016 and 2021. The results show that managerial attention to digital transformation is positively related to energy consumption intensity. Building on core assumptions from the behavioral theory of the firm, we further investigate the moderating role of R&D income intensity discrepancy on the link between digital transformation attention and energy consumption intensity. Our findings indicate that positive R&D income intensity discrepancy weakens the positive relationship between digital transformation attention and energy consumption, whereas negative discrepancy does not have any impact. This study contributes to the extant literature by advancing the understanding of the intersection between digital transformation and sustainability, while extending the theoretical applications of the attention-based view and behavioral theory of the firm within the public sector. The findings also offer insights for policymakers and practitioners seeking to mitigate unintended environmental consequences and promote more sustainable initiatives to digital transformation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124519"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145929183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Integrating human support with algorithmic control: Psychological reactance in platform work","authors":"Peng Hu , Xuru Wang , Jinqiang Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124520","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124520","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Algorithmic control has become a central feature of platform work, yet existing research primarily treats platform governance as an impersonal form of technological control. Drawing on self-determination theory, this study advances a co-managed human–algorithm governance perspective that conceptualizes workers' reactions as jointly shaped by algorithmic control and human support. We decompose workers' psychological reactance into cognitive and emotional forms and specify their distinct motivational antecedents. Our findings from platform-based delivery workers reveal that algorithmic control disrupts workers' sense of relatedness, giving rise to emotional reactance, while competence-related mechanisms play a limited role in this setting. Importantly, supervisor support attenuates the link between diminished relatedness and emotional reactance, underscoring the compensatory function of human intervention within algorithm-mediated work. By integrating algorithmic and human elements of control and differentiating the motivational structure of reactance, this study enriches theoretical understanding of the social and technological underpinnings of worker agency in platform labor.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124520"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145929258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Leveraging generative AI and circular innovation for equitable and resilient supply chains: The mediating role of transparency and sustainability-oriented decision empowerment","authors":"Yanfang Xia , Yong Qiu , Zhuoyu Gu , Liang Zhang , Jiayu Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124556","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124556","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sustainability is now a business necessity as climate pressures, digital transformation, and supply chain shocks push concerns on the table. In response to this agenda, this study proposes and tests an empirically grounded sociotechnical framework in which three generative AI-enabled enablers act in concert to amplify supply chain transparency. Supply chain transparency allows decisions to be made that lead to fair and resilient supply outcomes. The present research shows how AI-enabled decision intelligence and circular innovation practices can enhance organizational transparency and the manager's potential to make inclusion-oriented, sustainable, equitable and resilient decisions through a socio-technical framework. Survey responses were used to empirically test the prepositions using a structural equation modelling framework. The research expands the theory of socio-technical systems. As such, it shows the need for technical (AI-enabled decision intelligence, circular innovation alignment) and cultural (responsible AI communication culture) capabilities. These should co-evolve with transparency and decision architectures for attaining social resilience. The study has practical implications for managers. They will have to invest money in not just generative AI powered analytics but also responsible communication norms. Moreover, aligning with circular innovation can aid in unlocking data visibility and inclusive decision loop.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124556"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Enhancing data governance through transparency: An empirical study of the data trust model","authors":"Yei Jin Kim , Young Soo Park , Sung-Pil Park","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124551","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124551","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As data-driven ecosystems expand, the Data Trust Model (DTM) has gained attention as a governance framework for secure transactions, yet adoption remains uncertain due to high information asymmetry and the dual burden of evaluating asset quality and transactional risk. Prior research has largely emphasized supply-side institutional design, treating transparency as a monolithic construct and overlooking user heterogeneity. To address these limitations, this study develops a context-specific model integrating the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Transparency is bifurcated into Perceived Data Transparency (adverse selection) and Perceived Transaction Transparency (moral hazard) within an Agency Theory framework. The model is tested using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) and Multi-Group Analysis (MGA) based on data from 400 potential users. Results show that transparency operates as a conditional enabler mediated by attitude rather than a direct driver. MGA further reveals systematic heterogeneity: experienced users rely more heavily on institutional signals—reputation, security, and warranty—when forming perceptions. Theoretically, this study integrates Agency and Signaling Theories to explain adoption under uncertainty. Practically, findings highlight the need for differentiated transparency mechanisms tailored to user experience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124551"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Disappointed with Siri: Expectation–experience gaps in human–AI interaction","authors":"You Jin Song , Joohye Park , Sun Kyong Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124540","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124540","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Voice assistants such as Siri increasingly mediate everyday tasks, yet negative experiences with these systems remain understudied. Guided by social representation theory, we use a sequential mixed-methods design—topic modeling of user narratives followed by in-depth interviews—to characterize dissatisfaction with a voice-based AI and to explain how its meanings differ by users' gender. Topic modeling surfaces a broad “inconvenience/disruption” cluster alongside frequent references to speech-recognition errors. Interviews then reveal the interpretive logics beneath these signals: men tend to read failures as breaches of technical performance and task logic, whereas women more often construe the same events as violations of social expectations. These gendered interpretations show that dissatisfaction is not merely an individual usability outcome but a socially anchored perception organized by shared representational frames. The study contributes (1) a theoretically grounded account of how gender structures sense-making around AI malfunctions, (2) a methodological synthesis that links computational signals to qualitative representation mapping, and (3) design implications that anticipate divergent expectations without reinforcing stereotypes. By moving beyond frequency counts to interpretive coherence, the work advances understanding of why the same Siri behavior can produce different forms of dissatisfaction across users.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"225 ","pages":"Article 124540"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}