Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第3页

Smart treaties: A path to binding agreements in international relations? 明智的条约：在国际关系中达成具有约束力的协议的途径？

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124336

Niklas V. Lehmann

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Tackling the empowerment of Artificial Intelligence for humanitarian intervention from Save the Children 为救助儿童会的人道主义干预处理人工智能的授权

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124330

Veronica Scuotto , Kingsley Obi Omeihe , Valentina Cillo , Del Giudice Manlio

{"title":"Tackling the empowerment of Artificial Intelligence for humanitarian intervention from Save the Children","authors":"Veronica Scuotto , Kingsley Obi Omeihe , Valentina Cillo , Del Giudice Manlio","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124330","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124330","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growing needs of humanitarian organisations have intensified discussions around the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance humanitarian interventions. While concerns about the costs and time required to adopt AI technologies persist, there is a strong willingness within the sector to leverage AI to become more flexible, adaptive to local conditions, and deliver assistance more efficiently and effectively. Drawing on the Knowledge-Based View (KBV), this study examines the application of AI within one of the world's largest humanitarian organisations, Save the Children. Based on a qualitative analysis conducted in 2024, several key insights emerge. First, AI has the potential to significantly empower and improve humanitarian interventions. Second, although the use of AI remains at an early stage, there is a growing commitment to integrating it across a wide range of humanitarian activities, from assisting refugees to supporting their integration into new communities. Third, individual knowledge remains critical for complementing and enhancing the capabilities of AI, particularly in developing human skills and expertise. Finally, AI acts as a facilitator, in amplifying the impact of humanitarian efforts on a global scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124330"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145060279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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Responsible artificial intelligence (AI) for responsible innovation in Chinese manufacturing: From the affordance–actualization theory 中国制造业负责任创新的负责任人工智能：基于可得性-实现性理论

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124349

Dandan Ye , Ruizhi Yuan , Jun Luo , Martin J. Liu , Natalia Yannopoulou

{"title":"Responsible artificial intelligence (AI) for responsible innovation in Chinese manufacturing: From the affordance–actualization theory","authors":"Dandan Ye , Ruizhi Yuan , Jun Luo , Martin J. Liu , Natalia Yannopoulou","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124349","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124349","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Manufacturing firms are increasingly recognizing the critical importance of responsible artificial intelligence (AI)—the ethical and conscientious integration of AI into business processes. While scholars have highlighted the role of responsible AI in advancing responsible innovation, conceptualized as a transparent, reflexive, and inclusive process that engages all stakeholders, existing research has concentrated on initiatives at the AI design phase. As such, the processes through which responsible AI can be collaboratively implemented with external stakeholders to facilitate responsible innovation remain underexplored. To address this gap, this study employs a mixed-methods approach, comprising in-depth interviews (<em>N</em> = 26) and surveys (<em>N</em> = 618), to examine the relationship between responsible AI and responsible innovation. Drawing upon affordance–actualization theory, our findings reveal that responsible AI catalyzes three external stakeholder affordances: joint planning, joint problem-solving, and ethical climate. These affordances lead to immediate outcomes—stakeholder engagement and collective ethical efficacy—that ultimately foster responsible innovation. This study contributes to the literature on responsible AI by identifying three affordances related to the external stakeholders and one contextual factor, organizational mindfulness. It enriches the literature on responsible innovation by advancing the digital technology view and empirically examining the stepwise process through which responsible AI affects responsible innovation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124349"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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Supporting the digital transformation journey through monitoring systems in healthcare. A comparative analysis of European empirical approaches through an adaptation of the IPOO framework 通过监测医疗保健系统支持数字化转型。通过调整IPOO框架对欧洲经验方法进行比较分析

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124340

Alessandro Vinci , Andrea Vandelli , Alessia Caputo , Milena Vainieri

{"title":"Supporting the digital transformation journey through monitoring systems in healthcare. A comparative analysis of European empirical approaches through an adaptation of the IPOO framework","authors":"Alessandro Vinci , Andrea Vandelli , Alessia Caputo , Milena Vainieri","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124340","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124340","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores how digital transformation (DT) is operationalized and measured within Health System Performance Assessments (HSPAs) across European Union (EU) countries. By conducting a documentary analysis of national HSPAs through the READ approach, we identified 11 EU countries that include digital health metrics and extracted a total of 93 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). These indicators were systematically categorized using the Input-Process-Output-Outcome (IPOO) framework and clustered into four deductively derived domains and corresponding sub-domains. Building on this empirical foundation, we propose a novel conceptual framework that integrates theoretical and practical dimensions of DT monitoring. The framework assigns representative KPIs to each IPOO phase and highlights critical but currently under-monitored areas. Despite notable progress in areas such as electronic health records, telemedicine, and digital service usage, the findings reveal persistent challenges. Furthermore, significant variability exists across countries in the adoption and computability of DT indicators. By providing a structured model and a comprehensive pool of indicators, this study contributes to both academic literature and practical policymaking. It supports efforts to guide DT measurement across healthcare systems while maintaining the flexibility needed to adapt to diverse national contexts. Future research should explore the evolving integration of DT metrics and continue to address gaps that hinder effective performance monitoring and policy development in healthcare digitalization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124340"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Avatar anthropomorphism continuum: A blockchain-based data analysis of avatar skin purchases in the metaverse 化身拟人化连续体：基于区块链的虚拟化身皮肤购买数据分析

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124341

Karina Sokolova, Charles Perez

引用次数: 0

How does digital platform capability affect digital innovation? Evidence from manufacturing SMEs in China 数字平台能力如何影响数字创新？来自中国制造业中小企业的证据

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124338

Zhou Huiping , Zan Ao

{"title":"How does digital platform capability affect digital innovation? Evidence from manufacturing SMEs in China","authors":"Zhou Huiping , Zan Ao","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124338","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124338","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite growing attention to investigating the mechanisms of digital platform capability in improving economic outcomes, existing research has failed to understand whether and how digital platform capability affects digital innovation in manufacturing SMEs. Based on resource orchestration theory and survey data from 211 Chinese manufacturing SMEs, our analysis results first show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the two sub-dimensions of digital platform capability (namely, platform integration capability and platform reconfiguration capability) and digital innovation. The findings further reveal that organizational resilience mediates relationships between platform integration capability, platform reconfiguration capability and digital innovation. The empirical results also indicate that high levels of digital technology usage steepens the inverted U-shaped relationships between platform integration capability, platform reconfiguration capability and manufacturing SMEs' digital innovation. Additionally, digital technology usage strengthens the positive relationship between platform integration capability and organizational resilience, but it has no moderating effect on the relationship between platform reconfiguration capability and organizational resilience. This study contributes to clarifying the ambiguous mechanism through which digital platform capability influences digital innovation, and provides practical guidance for manufacturing SMEs to boost digital innovation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124338"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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Aligning digital strategy and resources to create Healthcare 4.0 organizations: Implications for smart operations and smart working 调整数字战略和资源以创建医疗保健4.0组织：对智能运营和智能工作的影响

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124339

Lucas Miguel Alencar de Morais Correia , Paulo Renato de Sousa , Alejandro G. Frank

{"title":"Aligning digital strategy and resources to create Healthcare 4.0 organizations: Implications for smart operations and smart working","authors":"Lucas Miguel Alencar de Morais Correia , Paulo Renato de Sousa , Alejandro G. Frank","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124339","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124339","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the organizational foundations required to implement Healthcare 4.0 (H4.0) by examining how digital strategy, internal and external digital resources, and network embeddedness support the development of smart operations and smart working in healthcare organizations. While prior research has predominantly focused on technology-driven improvements in healthcare processes, less attention has been given to the sociotechnical integration of people, processes, and technologies, particularly from a strategic and managerial perspective. Drawing on a survey of 303 hospitals, we assessed the role of digital strategy and digital resources in advancing H4.0, conceptualized through the dual lenses of smart operations (technology for process automation) and smart working (technology to support workers). Using hierarchical regression and bootstrapping techniques, we find that digital strategy positively influences both smart operations and smart working. However, internal and external digital resources mediate this relationship only in the context of smart working. This indicates that while process automation relies primarily on strategic clarity, supporting workers requires stronger resource structures. Additionally, we find that healthcare network embeddedness positively moderates the relationship between digital strategy and external digital resources, but not internal resources. This suggests that external collaborations enhance a hospital's ability to translate strategic intent into actionable use of external resources, particularly in support of smart working. Our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of how strategic alignment and network embeddedness shape sociotechnical systems in healthcare. They offer guidance for managers seeking to design holistic digital transformation strategies to build H4.0 organizations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124339"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Discovering firm technology opportunities by machine learning prediction method based on firm's technology portfolio 基于企业技术组合的机器学习预测方法发现企业技术机会

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124305

Runbo Zhao , Wanying Wei , Zijian Zhu

{"title":"Discovering firm technology opportunities by machine learning prediction method based on firm's technology portfolio","authors":"Runbo Zhao , Wanying Wei , Zijian Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124305","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124305","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Identifying technology opportunities is crucial for firms to maintain competitiveness and drive innovation. However, existing methods often overlook the interaction between external technological trends and firm's internal capabilities. To address this gap, this study proposes a novel approach for identifying firm-specific technology opportunities. Our methodology leverages a technology convergence network and the connectivity between nodes to identify a firm's portfolio. These candidate technologies in firm's portfolio are then evaluated using a systematic set of indices that measure both their external attributes in the domain and their internal relevance to the target firm, assessed by social network and link prediction. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm is then dynamically applied to learn from the features of past technology opportunities and predict future promising opportunities among the candidate technologies. We apply this approach to the wind energy sector and the largest firm in this field as a target firm. From this, 102 potential technology opportunities are identified and validated from a dataset of 5034 collected green patents. This practical applicability demonstrates our method's efficacy in guiding future technological directions for firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124305"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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Sustainable circular economy: Unpacking the unintended consequences of digital transformation in Japanese SMEs 可持续循环经济：揭示日本中小企业数字化转型的意外后果

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124335

Leanne Chung , Kim Hua Tan , Osamu Yoshie

{"title":"Sustainable circular economy: Unpacking the unintended consequences of digital transformation in Japanese SMEs","authors":"Leanne Chung , Kim Hua Tan , Osamu Yoshie","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124335","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124335","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital transformation (DX) and the shift toward a sustainable circular economy are reshaping industries, raising both practical and theoretical questions about power, collaboration, and ecosystem dynamics. While DX offers opportunities for efficiency and sustainability, it also induces unintended consequences—particularly in altering inter-organizational power relations and blurring traditional industrial boundaries. Drawing on circular economy and ecosystem perspectives, this study investigates these unintended consequences through multiple in-depth case studies of Japanese SMEs. The research reveals how organisations renegotiate constraints and resources to adapt to evolving digital ecosystems. Unlike much of the existing literature that focuses on benefits, this paper uniquely explores the dual nature of unintended consequences—highlighting not only risks but rather, some present exploitable opportunities. The findings offer novel theoretical insights into digital circular economy-era and provide actionable guidance for policymakers and practitioners navigating digital transformation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124335"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144933250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

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Toward open-source foundation model ecosystem: Impact evaluation framework and promotion mechanism 面向开源基金会模式生态系统：影响评估框架与促进机制

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124328

Jincheng Shi , Shan Jiang

{"title":"Toward open-source foundation model ecosystem: Impact evaluation framework and promotion mechanism","authors":"Jincheng Shi , Shan Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124328","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124328","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Open-source foundation models cultivate complex innovation ecosystems that render traditional, project-centric evaluation frameworks inadequate. To address this gap, our study develops and validates a three-level framework for assessing ecosystem-level impact and identifying its enhancement mechanisms. Grounded in technology diffusion theory, we conduct a mixed-methods analysis of 14 leading models, using data from Hugging Face, GitHub, and X (formerly Twitter). Our findings reveal that while the initial impact of these models is balanced, significant gaps emerge at the secondary (derivative innovation) and tertiary (global influence) levels. We term this challenge the “climbing effect”—the difficulty of transitioning impact across these levels—and identify specific technical and strategic control points that facilitate this progression. Theoretically, this study shifts the unit of analysis from individual projects to broader ecosystems, challenges the assumption of “smooth diffusion,” and introduces control point theory to the open-source context. Practically, our findings offer actionable strategies for developers and an evidence-based framework for policymakers to foster a more prosperous open-source AI landscape.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124328"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144933251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0