Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第4页

Navigating the business model design space: A case of insects as food and feed in Sweden 引导商业模式设计空间：以瑞典的昆虫为食和饲料为例

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124148

Linus Thomson , Chattraporn Chatthong , Thomas Taro Lennerfors

{"title":"Navigating the business model design space: A case of insects as food and feed in Sweden","authors":"Linus Thomson , Chattraporn Chatthong , Thomas Taro Lennerfors","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124148","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124148","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Business model innovation (BMI) plays a key role in driving sustainability transitions, yet its interplay with the broader socio-technical system is often overlooked. This study investigates BMI in the emerging niche of insect-based food and feed in Sweden, employing a combined Business Model Design Space (BMDS) and dynamic capabilities perspective. Drawing on interviews with ten insect firms, we examine how firm-level dynamic capabilities shape BMI strategies and interact with the BMDS. Our findings show that firms adopt different strategies to navigate the opportunities and constraints they perceive within the BMDS. We introduce a novel typology that outlines how firms perceive and respond to the BMDS through two dimensions: BMDS Sensing (systematic & intuitive) and BMDS Enactment (fit-and-conform & stretch-and-transform). This typology identifies four distinct BMI seizing modes: Analytical Adaptation, Analytical Shaping, Instinctive Adaptation, and Instinctive Shaping, highlighting how firms interpret and enact the BMDS through BMI. By integrating dynamic capabilities theory with the BMDS framework, we address the gap of accounting for varied perceptions of the BMDS among different actors. We show how firms exercise strategic agency in shaping and responding to system-level dynamics, offering new theoretical insights that bridge firm-level and system-level perspectives on BMI within emerging niches.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"216 ","pages":"Article 124148"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143848679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124151

Kabsoo Jang , Jeongsub Choi , Ho-shin Lee , Byunghoon Kim

{"title":"A novel similarity-based recommendation for identifying potential customers in new markets using an inter-firm transaction network","authors":"Kabsoo Jang , Jeongsub Choi , Ho-shin Lee , Byunghoon Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124151","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124151","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In a dynamically evolving corporate landscape, it is essential to identify potential customers to ensure the sustainable growth of companies. In this context, potential customers can be identified by predicting the link that foreshadows future transactions between pairs of companies in an inter-firm transaction network. Similarity-based link prediction approaches are popular for predicting links, owing to their interpretability and scalability. However, existing similarity measures have proven inadequate for capturing intermarket similarities. This limitation restricts their applicability to scenarios in which businesses seek to enter new markets. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel similarity score, designed to capture the similarities between firms in separate markets. The proposed similarity score is utilized to identify potential customers in new markets by leveraging transaction data along with essential firm attributes. We validate our approach through toy network experiments, visually demonstrating its ability to predict potential customers across different markets. Moreover, the proposed method consistently outperforms baseline approaches in terms of the Area Under the Curve (AUC), precision@k, and recall@k. These findings underscore the effectiveness of the proposed method as a valuable tool for businesses seeking to enter new markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"216 ","pages":"Article 124151"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143838984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Towards a sustainable and circular blue bioeconomy: A scoping review 迈向可持续和循环的蓝色生物经济：范围审查

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124157

Ashkan Pakseresht , Alireza Kermani , Carolin Decker-Lange

引用次数: 0

Core aspects of digital exclusion among the Russian population 俄罗斯人口中数字排斥的核心方面

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124153

Alina Pishnyak, Natalia Khalina, Elena Nazarbaeva

引用次数: 0

Digital disruption, knowledge and collaborative networks and green innovation in China manufacturing transformation 中国制造业转型中的数字化颠覆、知识与协同网络与绿色创新

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124120

Yao Xiao , Rong Xiang , Yong-lei Sun , Jin Chen , Yun-hong Hao

{"title":"Digital disruption, knowledge and collaborative networks and green innovation in China manufacturing transformation","authors":"Yao Xiao , Rong Xiang , Yong-lei Sun , Jin Chen , Yun-hong Hao","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124120","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124120","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Green innovation is essential for sustainable development but often incurs high costs, reducing economic returns. Grounded in disruptive innovation and social network theory, this study examines whether disruptive events experienced by Chinese manufacturing firms during their digital transformation can reduce green R&D and manufacturing costs, thereby promoting green innovation. Using patent data from China's high-tech manufacturing sector (2014–2023), the study finds an inverted U-shaped relationship between Digital Disruptive Events (DDE) and Green Innovation (GI). The network structure of knowledge and collaboration plays varying moderating roles in this relationship. Structural holes in a firm's knowledge network negatively moderate the effect of DDE on GI, while degree centrality shows no significant moderation. Conversely, more structural holes and lower degree centrality in collaboration networks positively influence GI. The findings highlight the importance of leveraging multilayered network structures to drive green innovation during digital transformation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"216 ","pages":"Article 124120"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143833122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Drivers of artificial intelligence integrated healthcare applications. Patients' perspective 人工智能集成医疗保健应用的驱动因素。病人的角度

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124144

David E. Kalisz

{"title":"Drivers of artificial intelligence integrated healthcare applications. Patients' perspective","authors":"David E. Kalisz","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124144","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124144","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The healthcare sector has extensively adopted Artificial Intelligence (AI) to improve operational efficiency and care quality. However, patients' adoption and use of AI-integrated healthcare applications (AIIHA) for consultation and treatment have not been investigated sufficiently. Our study addresses this gap by examining a unique contextual model comprising antecedents of patients' intentions and behavior towards AIIHA. The proposed model is contextualized to the AIIHA context by incorporating four new constructs, namely privacy concern, hedonic motivation, trust, and patient healthcare engagement, along with performance and effort expectancy. The model hypothesizing the association of the aforementioned variables with patients' behavioral intentions is tested using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to analyze data (<em>N</em> = 522) collected online from respondents in different countries. In addition, the moderating effect of the recent pandemic is also tested to evaluate the strength of the association between behavioral intentions and usage behavior towards AIIHA. The results reveal that performance expectancy, effort expectancy, hedonic motivation, patient healthcare engagement, and trust shape patients' behavioral intentions towards AIIHA. Also, there is a statistically significant effect of effort expectancy on performance expectancy, patients' behavioral intentions on usage behavior, and the negative impact of privacy concerns on patients' trust.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"216 ","pages":"Article 124144"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143833121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Integrated framework of intervention points and transformative outcomes for single- and multi-system transitions 单一和多系统转型的干预点和变革结果的综合框架

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124146

Laur Kanger , Bipashyee Ghosh , Hanna Entsalo

{"title":"Integrated framework of intervention points and transformative outcomes for single- and multi-system transitions","authors":"Laur Kanger , Bipashyee Ghosh , Hanna Entsalo","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124146","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124146","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Interactions between studies on transformative innovation policy and sustainability transitions have lately generated a rich stream of work on steering system innovation. Yet the tools to understand, formulate and evaluate transformative innovation policy have so far mostly focused on single systems. This is problematic as addressing the current sustainability challenges requires transitions in a broad range of interconnected systems, and the policy assessment tools developed for single systems may not sufficiently capture multi-system phenomena. In this paper we seek to address this limitation by synthesising two frameworks for policy mapping and evaluation: intervention points and transformative outcomes. Drawing on recent literature on multi-system dynamics, transition justice, rebound effects, planetary boundaries and resilience, the article proposes an integrated framework of 8 intervention points and 16 related transformative outcomes for steering single- and multi-system transitions. In order to show the added value of the new framework, we reanalyse an existing case of Finnish circular economy policy. We also discuss how the framework might be employed in various innovation policy evaluation exercises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"216 ","pages":"Article 124146"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143825998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhancing citizen engagement in urban greening: The potential of large language models in value co-creation 加强市民参与城市绿化：大型语言模型在价值共同创造中的潜力

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124134

Lita Alita

{"title":"Enhancing citizen engagement in urban greening: The potential of large language models in value co-creation","authors":"Lita Alita","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124134","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124134","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban green spaces are essential for ecosystem functioning, human wellbeing, and social cohesion. Urban greening, as a dynamic process, requires citizen engagement to integrate their lived experiences. The value co-creation approach offers a promising framework to facilitate citizen involvement in shaping urban green spaces. Without successful translation of these experiences into tangible value during the implementation phase, co-creation efforts may revert to mere participatory practices in which citizen involvement is superficial. Since Large Language Models (LLMs) have the potential to streamline user feedback, this study examines whether LLMs can enhance citizen engagement in the co-creation of value for urban greening. Using a survey experiment designed to prompt participation in urban greening initiatives, this study found that the demo of LLM significantly increases citizens' participation at initial stage and their engagement in co-creating value in use. The mechanism analysis identified that the demo of LLMs increases citizen engagement by reducing participation barriers. However, interaction effect analysis reveals a decrease in engagement and enthusiasm among citizens with higher self-efficacy when LLMs are applied. The findings of this study suggest that LLMs can be viable tools in facilitating urban greening initiatives under a co-creation framework.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"216 ","pages":"Article 124134"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143829052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Antifragility or threat-rigidity: the impact of board environmental policy uncertainty perception on corporate exploratory and exploitative green technological innovation 反脆弱性还是威胁-刚性：董事会环境政策不确定性认知对企业探索性和开发性绿色技术创新的影响

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124145

Kunliang Xu , Yanmin Shao , Yiwen Hu

{"title":"Antifragility or threat-rigidity: the impact of board environmental policy uncertainty perception on corporate exploratory and exploitative green technological innovation","authors":"Kunliang Xu , Yanmin Shao , Yiwen Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124145","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124145","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drawing on cognition and upper echelons theories, this study examines how board environmental policy uncertainty (EPU) perception affects corporate green technological innovation (GTI), including exploratory and exploitative GTI. We theorize that an increased board EPU perception will cause both antifragility and threat-rigidity effects on GTI. The antifragility motivates firms to leverage GTI to counteract perceived EPU, while the threat-rigidity drives them to avoid GTI in unfamiliar fields. Consequently, an enhanced board EPU perception exerts a positive influence on exploitative GTI, yet not on exploratory GTI. Furthermore, we posit that board environmental protection background weakens the relationship between EPU perception and exploitative GTI by amplifying the threat-rigidity effect. Conversely, board R&D and political connection backgrounds strengthen this relationship by amplifying the antifragility effect. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms during 2012–2021, this study measures board EPU perception through textual analysis of board reports, and draws evidence in support of the arguments. Economically, an increase in the board EPU perception from the 25th to the 75th percentile is associated with a 15.50 % increase in exploitative GTI relative to its mean. The findings may provide insights for shareholders and regulators to govern corporate GTI in a volatile environmental policy environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"216 ","pages":"Article 124145"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143829050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “revealing the influence of AI and its interfaces on job candidates' honest and deceptive impression management in asynchronous video interviews” [Technol. Forecast. Soc. change, 198 (2024), 123,011] “揭示人工智能及其界面对求职者在异步视频面试中诚实和欺骗印象管理的影响”的更正[技术]。预测。Soc。变化，198 (2024),123,011]

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124130

Hung-Yue Suen, Kuo-En Hung

引用次数: 0