Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第4页

Unraveling risk dynamics in the urban food-energy-water system for sustainable management: A coupled model considering trivariate complexity 揭示城市食物-能源-水系统可持续管理的风险动态：一个考虑三元复杂性的耦合模型

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124332

Xinqing Li , Lixiao Zhang , Aidong Yang , Yan Hao , Pengpeng Zhang , Xin Xiong , Yuqin Li , Zijie Zhang

{"title":"Unraveling risk dynamics in the urban food-energy-water system for sustainable management: A coupled model considering trivariate complexity","authors":"Xinqing Li , Lixiao Zhang , Aidong Yang , Yan Hao , Pengpeng Zhang , Xin Xiong , Yuqin Li , Zijie Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124332","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124332","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Food, energy and water (FEW) shortage risks are increasingly combining in cities with the high levels of human activity. Taking Beijing as a case, a coupled model that considers the trivariate interdependence of urban FEW was developed based on system dynamics and the Copula function to unravel multi-dimensional risk dynamics under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that FEW demands will follow an inverted U-shaped pattern until reaching 1.4 million tons (Mt), 75 million tons of standard coal (Mtce) and 3.8 billion cubic meters (Bm<sup>3</sup>) in 2100 under SSP1, with the composite shortage risk peaking at 0.7 then declining to 0.4. Whereas under SSP5, the risk will sustain >0.8 post-2050 with FEW demands rising to 2.5 Mt., 130 Mtce and 6.6 Bm<sup>3</sup>. Energy shortages will consistently maintain a high-risk state. Advanced technology and efficient equipment should be introduced to secure sustainable energy supplies and reserves. Water risk is more constrained by widespread scarcity and tradeoffs, deserving special attention as a limiting factor in determining a city's carrying capacity. Sustainable development plans including urban function relocation and resource conservation, and synergistic multisectoral risk management as adjusting industrial structure and upgrading resource facilities should be considered to enhance urban FEW security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124332"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144933249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Birthplace diversity of immigrants and technological novelty: Unpacking the internal structure of diversity 移民的出生地多样性与技术新颖性：多样性的内部结构剖析

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124337

Wenwan Jin , Yongyuan Huang , Shengjun Zhu

{"title":"Birthplace diversity of immigrants and technological novelty: Unpacking the internal structure of diversity","authors":"Wenwan Jin , Yongyuan Huang , Shengjun Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124337","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124337","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In an increasingly globalized world, understanding how the birthplace diversity of international immigrants influences innovation in destination countries is of growing significance. Although previous studies have explored the innovation implications of migration, the internal structure of diversity, particularly the distinction between related and unrelated birthplace diversity, has been largely overlooked. This paper investigates the impact of skilled immigrants' birthplace diversity on national-level technological novelty by integrating data from the ADOP and OECD REGPAT databases. Our findings reveal that countries with higher birthplace diversity among skilled immigrants tend to produce more novel innovations; a result that remains robust across a series of robustness tests. Further, analysis of international collaboration networks among immigrants' origin countries indicates that unrelated birthplace diversity serves as the main contributor to this positive effect. By unpacking the internal structure of birthplace diversity, this paper reconciles previously mixed findings and offers new insights into the mechanisms linking international migration and technological novelty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124337"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144926789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Can digitalization of inclusive finance promote innovation of small and medium-sized enterprises? A quasi-natural experiment approach 普惠金融数字化能否促进中小企业创新？准自然实验方法

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124331

Dong Xiang , Tingting Tian , Jiangli Yu

引用次数: 0

Public sector development and entrepreneurial initiatives for improving circular economy performance: Government policy and digital transformation initiatives as moderators 提高循环经济绩效的公共部门发展和创业举措：政府政策和数字化转型举措作为调节因素

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124333

Manpreet Rajpal , Bindu Singh , Sheshadri Chatterjee , Uthayasankar Sivarajah

{"title":"Public sector development and entrepreneurial initiatives for improving circular economy performance: Government policy and digital transformation initiatives as moderators","authors":"Manpreet Rajpal , Bindu Singh , Sheshadri Chatterjee , Uthayasankar Sivarajah","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124333","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124333","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The public sector delivers essential services like healthcare, law enforcement, public transit, education, infrastructure, social services, emergency services, and environmental management. It supports innovation and digital transformation, which can be enhanced by integrating sustainable circular economy principles. Similarly, entrepreneurship intention towards circular economy could have a pivotal impact towards improving circular economy performance. Not many research studies have been conducted towards identifying how public sector development and entrepreneurial initiatives could impact circular economy performance. Also, there are fewer studies which have focused on the role of government policies and digital transformation initiatives towards improving circular economy performance. Against this background, this research study focuses on the role of public sector and entrepreneurship initiatives in enhancing circular economy performance, with government policy and digital transformation initiatives acting as moderating factors. With the support of institutional theory and resource-based view, a model has been developed conceptually which was later validated through partial least square structural equation modelling technique supported by 357 usable respondents from emerging economy respondents. The study found there is a positive correlation between public sector development and entrepreneurial intention to improve circular economy performance. Also, the study demonstrated that government policies and digital transformation initiatives play a significant role towards improving circular economy performance. This study mainly depends on data obtained from cross-sectional study. This invites causality and endogeneity defects. These defects may be addressed by conducting a longitudinal study that could be conducted by future researchers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"221 ","pages":"Article 124333"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144922057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Understanding mass-market electric vehicle adoption: Integrating diffusion of innovation theory with risk mitigation strategy in Germany 理解大众市场电动汽车的采用：将德国的创新扩散理论与风险缓解策略相结合

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124329

Ellen Enkel , Sander Wintgens

{"title":"Understanding mass-market electric vehicle adoption: Integrating diffusion of innovation theory with risk mitigation strategy in Germany","authors":"Ellen Enkel , Sander Wintgens","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124329","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124329","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The adoption of electric vehicles into the so-called mass market across European countries reveals significant disparities, with Germany lagging behind peers such as Sweden and the Netherlands. This research investigates the challenges of transitioning new technology, exemplified by electric vehicles, to be adopted by the early and late majority through the lens of Rogers' Diffusion of Innovation theory. Following the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT), this study reveals that performance expectancy, effort expectancy and risk mitigation significantly influence the behavioral intention to adopt electric vehicles among the early and late majority. This study incorporates novel risk mitigation strategies combined in the non-ownership business model carsharing for electric vehicles, to address perceived financial and functional risks associated with the adoption of electric vehicles, relevant for the targeted adoption group. The data was collected from 519 representatives of the early and late majority sample in Germany. This research contributes to the theoretical understanding of perceived risks and suitable risk mitigation strategies in technology adoption and offers insights into new distinct characteristics of the early and late majority adoption group, relevant to improve the accuracy of forecasting models aimed at predicting technology diffusion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"220 ","pages":"Article 124329"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144913197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Achieving inclusive digital development: A frugal strategy based on lessons from three West African smallholder agriculture value chains 实现包容性数字发展：基于西非三个小农农业价值链经验的节俭战略

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124287

Nicolas Paget , Mariette McCampbell , Baba Ba , Moussa Bamba , Jean-Daniel Cesaro , Serena Ferrari , Martin Notaro , Florent Okry , Camille Richebourg , Pascal Bonnet

{"title":"Achieving inclusive digital development: A frugal strategy based on lessons from three West African smallholder agriculture value chains","authors":"Nicolas Paget , Mariette McCampbell , Baba Ba , Moussa Bamba , Jean-Daniel Cesaro , Serena Ferrari , Martin Notaro , Florent Okry , Camille Richebourg , Pascal Bonnet","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124287","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124287","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article has two objectives. One is to examine mechanisms of inclusion and exclusion that arise despite the widespread diffusion of digital devices and supporting infrastructure. The second is to propose expanding the perspective on digital inclusion to consider users of digital technologies within their environment. Recognizing that innovation diffusion processes can exacerbate existing inequalities and/or create new ones, this study aims to assist researchers and practitioners in preventing potential negative impacts of digitalization. Using digital divides and digital inclusion frameworks, we examine three value chains in three West African countries using mixed methods. The findings reveal that communication networks and phones are increasingly available, yet traditional digital divides persist in all three value chains. Although the value chains share similarities in their challenges and opportunities, the needs of the actors involved vary. The discussion underscores two key points: first, the efficacy of digital solutions hinges upon their alignment with collective habits and capacities; and second, solutions should prioritize frugality, particularly when designing digital technologies for producers who have limited yet valuable digital skills. These insights highlight the importance of tailoring digital interventions to local contexts and use habits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"220 ","pages":"Article 124287"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144916538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How configurations of legitimacy shape directionality in technological innovation systems: The case of plant-based meat alternatives in Sweden 合法性的配置如何塑造技术创新系统的方向性：以瑞典植物性肉类替代品为例

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124283

Helena Fornstedt , Thomas Taro Lennerfors , Johnn Andersson , Paul Plummer

{"title":"How configurations of legitimacy shape directionality in technological innovation systems: The case of plant-based meat alternatives in Sweden","authors":"Helena Fornstedt , Thomas Taro Lennerfors , Johnn Andersson , Paul Plummer","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124283","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124283","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sustainability challenges call for a shift towards plant-based proteins. This paper aims to analyze the development of plant-based meat alternatives in Sweden with a focus on legitimation processes. We divide legitimation into cognitive, normative, pragmatic and regulative varieties, and argue that configurations of legitimacy shape the directionality of innovation. We integrate this conceptualization into an analytical framework based on the technological innovation systems approach and analyze data from 41 interviews and multiple secondary sources. The analysis shows that the development of plant-based meat alternatives has been driven by a supportive configuration of strong normative legitimacy for low climate impact, increasing cognitive legitimacy based on associations with meat-based diets, increasing pragmatic legitimacy ensuring profitability for producers and convenience for consumers, and low regulative legitimacy due to weak policy support. This has shaped directionality towards the development of highly refined products that mimic meat, rather than towards simpler plant-based products, which may bring sustainability benefits but require more substantial behavioral change. Our findings suggest that policymakers can influence all four kinds of legitimacy, but have an especially important role in actively targeting regulative legitimacy. Other stakeholders can shape cognitive, normative, and pragmatic legitimacy to propel plant-based meat alternatives in desired direction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"220 ","pages":"Article 124283"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144896211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Drivers and barriers of AI adoption and use in scientific research 人工智能在科学研究中采用和使用的驱动因素和障碍

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124303

Stefano Bianchini, Moritz Müller, Pierre Pelletier

引用次数: 0

The fear of being replaced by generative AI: An examination of influential factors among office workers 对被生成式人工智能取代的恐惧：对办公室工作人员影响因素的调查

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124326

Hyeon Jo , Do-Hyung Park

{"title":"The fear of being replaced by generative AI: An examination of influential factors among office workers","authors":"Hyeon Jo , Do-Hyung Park","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124326","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124326","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As advancements in generative artificial intelligence (GAI) permeate the modern workplace, anxieties about job replacement become increasingly prevalent. This study utilized partial least squares structural equation modeling on a sample of Korean office workers from various industries to explore the correlations between various factors and job replacement anxiety in the context of GAI. Memorability and self-learning characteristics of GAI were found to not significantly influence job replacement concerns. On the other hand, personalization and anthropomorphism—AI's human-like characteristics and adaptability—were found to be significantly associated with increased job replacement anxiety. Additionally, skepticism was found to significantly moderate the relationships between these GAI characteristics and job replacement anxiety. This research pioneers a nuanced exploration of how personalization and anthropomorphism, as dimensions of GAI, directly contribute to job replacement anxiety, providing an informed perspective by integrating skepticism as a moderating factor in a culturally specific context. The findings from this study provide new insights into how perceptions of GAI characteristics and demographics influence job replacement concerns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"220 ","pages":"Article 124326"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144879433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Metaverse as content or container? Exploring the future of customer experience in tourism 元宇宙是内容还是容器？探索旅游客户体验的未来

IF 13.3 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124334

Michele Simoni, Annarita Sorrentino, Luca Venturini

{"title":"Metaverse as content or container? Exploring the future of customer experience in tourism","authors":"Michele Simoni, Annarita Sorrentino, Luca Venturini","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124334","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124334","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Metaverse is emerging as a disruptive force capable of reshaping customer experiences, especially in experience-intensive sectors like tourism. Although scholarly literature has proposed conceptual models highlighting the immersive and hybrid capabilities of these technologies, little is known about how service providers perceive and interpret their potential. This study addresses this gap by exploring how tourism and hospitality actors envision the Metaverse's impact on customer experience, with particular attention to the circularity of the customer journey, defined as the continuous and recursive flow of engagement across interconnected digital and physical touchpoints. Adopting a qualitative approach, the research gathers insights from a diverse group of industry informants. The analysis is framed by two theoretical lenses: the Customer Journey Framework, which maps experiences across phases and interactions, and Consumption Value Theory, which interprets how various forms of value emerge in immersive contexts. Findings indicate that service providers partially validate academic expectations, viewing the Metaverse as immersive, inclusive, and capable of enriching customer interactions, while also reframing its potential through strategic, experiential, and operational considerations. By linking theoretical propositions with empirical evidence, this study contributes to debates on how immersive technologies shape value creation, experience design, and customer journey structures in digital ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"220 ","pages":"Article 124334"},"PeriodicalIF":13.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144886139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0