Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第5页

Navigating the power of blockchain strategy: Analysis of technology-organization-environment (TOE) framework and innovation resistance theory using PLS-SEM and ANN insights

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124044

Alhamzah Alnoor , Sammar Abbas , Abdullah Mohammed Sadaa , XinYing Chew , Gül Erkol Bayram

{"title":"Navigating the power of blockchain strategy: Analysis of technology-organization-environment (TOE) framework and innovation resistance theory using PLS-SEM and ANN insights","authors":"Alhamzah Alnoor , Sammar Abbas , Abdullah Mohammed Sadaa , XinYing Chew , Gül Erkol Bayram","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124044","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124044","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Blockchain technology is rapidly replacing traditional technologies. This technology offers numerous benefits, including transparency, safety and security, authenticity, and traceability, which drive business organizations to adopt it. Thus, the factors that generate resistance to the adoption of blockchain technology must be recognized, and an organization's strategy toward adopting blockchain technology must be influenced. In this study, the vital factors that produce resistance to blockchain technology from the perspective of oil companies operating in Iraq were determined. The three-pronged framework of technology, organization, and environment (TOE) was employed to identify the elements that affect resistance to blockchain technology, with subsequent effects on the blockchain strategy. Data were collected using a questionnaire distributed among the managers of the target companies. Among the 381 distributed questionnaires, 313 usable responses were gathered and analyzed via partial least square–structural equation modeling and artificial neural networks to test the proposed hypotheses. The findings show that all the elements of the TOE framework are crucially associated with resistance to blockchain technology and consequently shape the blockchain strategy. Furthermore, resistance to blockchain technology mediates the link between predictors of TOE factors and the blockchain strategy. Therefore, in this work, the present knowledge on resistance to blockchain technology and the blockchain strategy is enhanced by explicating the factors inhibiting blockchain technology adoption in a previously overlooked context. The findings provide practical insight for managers of oil companies to devise effective blockchain strategies for the optimal adoption of blockchain technology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 124044"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143512443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Policy capacities for mission-oriented innovation policy: A case study of UKRI and the industrial strategy challenge fund

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124049

Julie McLaren, Rainer Kattel

{"title":"Policy capacities for mission-oriented innovation policy: A case study of UKRI and the industrial strategy challenge fund","authors":"Julie McLaren, Rainer Kattel","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124049","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124049","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A new generation of transformative innovation policies, including a reimagined ‘mission’ approach, centre around tackling societal challenges. Their emphasis on directionality, coordination of different actors and policy mixes goes beyond standard science, technology, and innovation (STI), engaging wider policy and other domains. Whilst missions have become steadily popular and there is growing research on their design, there is much to understand about how such models are implemented in practice. A relative gap in the literature is how science, technology and innovation (STI) organisations develop the policy capacities and capabilities to deliver missions in context. This article provides a case study on how UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) fared whilst implementing the Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund (ISCF). It finds that the policy capacities for missions were not fully present within UKRI and notes several tensions as the organisation worked to develop its capabilities for implementing missions. The paper makes recommendations for how funders can enhance those policy capacities and suggestions for how mission-oriented innovation policy analysis might be developed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 124049"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143509542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Skills or degree? The rise of skill-based hiring for AI and green jobs

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124042

Matthew Bone , Eugenia González Ehlinger , Fabian Stephany

{"title":"Skills or degree? The rise of skill-based hiring for AI and green jobs","authors":"Matthew Bone , Eugenia González Ehlinger , Fabian Stephany","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Emerging professions in fields like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and sustainability (green jobs) are experiencing labour shortages as industry demand outpaces labour supply. In this context, our study aims to understand whether employers have begun focusing more on individual skills rather than formal qualifications in their recruitment processes. We analysed a large time-series dataset of approximately eleven million online job vacancies in the UK from 2018 to mid-2024, drawing on diverse literature on technological change and labour market signalling. Our findings provide evidence that employers have initiated “skill-based hiring” for AI roles, adopting more flexible hiring practices to expand the available talent pool. From 2018 to 2023, demand for AI roles grew by 21 % as a proportion of all postings (and accelerated into 2024). Simultaneously, mentions of university education requirements for AI roles declined by 15 %. Our regression analysis shows that university degrees have a significantly lower wage premium for both AI and green roles. In contrast, AI skills command a wage premium of 23 %, exceeding the value of degrees up until the PhD-level (33 %). In occupations with high demand for AI skills, the premium for skills is high, and the reward for degrees is relatively low. We recommend leveraging alternative skill-building formats such as apprenticeships, on-the-job training, MOOCs, vocational education and training, micro-certificates, and online bootcamps to fully utilise human capital and address talent shortages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 124042"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Paving the way to environmental sustainability: A systematic review to integrate big data analytics into high-stake decision forecasting

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124060

Rohit Agrawal , Nazrul Islam , Ashutosh Samadhiya , Vinaya Shukla , Anil Kumar , Arvind Upadhyay

{"title":"Paving the way to environmental sustainability: A systematic review to integrate big data analytics into high-stake decision forecasting","authors":"Rohit Agrawal , Nazrul Islam , Ashutosh Samadhiya , Vinaya Shukla , Anil Kumar , Arvind Upadhyay","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Big Data Analytics (BDA) is increasingly gaining interest in supply chain management due to the incorporation of digital technology in a range of operations. It facilitates the movement of commodities and data efficiently. However, despite the numerous benefits associated with BDA, there has been limited research on the extent to which BDA can improve environmental sustainability in supply chains. In an attempt to assess the depth of our knowledge, this study undertakes a bibliometric analysis in which 155 relevant articles are retrieved. The assessment discloses the various factors driving, limiting, and stimulating the adoption of BDA in the digital supply chain through analysis and discussion. Additionally, it suggests a framework linking the factors to achieve environmental sustainability. The outcomes of the evaluation indicate that the adoption of BDA could help in realizing an eco-friendly supply chain by reducing the carbon footprint, increasing product life cycles, minimizing the cost of transportation, and reducing transport-related emissions. This research suggests that policymakers should support BDA technology adoption for the reasons identified - it assists in boosting innovation and resilience in the increasingly competitive, ever changing market and the chaotic economic conditions of some industries. Many decisions made regarding environmental sustainability call for policies that will encourage BDA use to address climate, resources, energy management and sustainability factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 124060"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparing information completeness in brand-related user-generated content media

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124048

Sanghyun Park, Sungjoo Lee

{"title":"Comparing information completeness in brand-related user-generated content media","authors":"Sanghyun Park, Sungjoo Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124048","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124048","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Due to the contemporary globalized environment, business demands have become more dynamic and complex. Companies need to capture such demands to sustain and grow further in the market, for which various sources of information have been exploited. One of these is brand-related media. UGC from the media platform includes rich information on customer opinions and feedback for products and services. Recognizing the value of UGC, previous studies have proposed an approach to extract customer needs from media platforms. However, most of these studies have focused only on a single UGC platform, whereas diverse brand-related media exist and provide heterogeneous information. To address this issue, we develop a framework to evaluate the characteristics of brand-related UGC information and compare four different UGC media, including Amazon, ProQuest, Reddit, and YouTube, in terms of how rich they are in providing semantic, sentimental, and trend information based on a quantitative approach. The research results indicate that brand-related UGC media can have their own distinguishing features in the information they provide and thus need to be carefully adopted for market research. These findings offer meaningful implications for the use of brand-related UGC to identify innovation opportunities based on market needs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 124048"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Recycling through technology diffusion for circular economy in Europe: A decomposed assessment

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124052

Md. Monirul Islam , Md. Mahmudul Alam , Kazi Sohag

引用次数: 0

The impact of population aging on corporate digital transformation: Evidence from China

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124070

Ping Zhang , Huilin Yang , Chen Chen , Tao Wang , Ximeng Jia

{"title":"The impact of population aging on corporate digital transformation: Evidence from China","authors":"Ping Zhang , Huilin Yang , Chen Chen , Tao Wang , Ximeng Jia","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124070","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124070","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Labor shortages caused by population aging may directly compel enterprises to undergo digital transformation or indirectly pose a continuous challenge owing to insufficient talent reserves. Currently, no studies have explicitly explored the impact of population aging on corporate digital transformation. To clarify this relationship, this study integrates population aging and corporate digital transformation into the same theoretical framework and uses panel data from China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies. A multiple linear regression model is employed for theoretical analysis and empirical testing. The findings indicate that, first, population aging promotes corporate digital transformation, a conclusion that remains robust after a series of robustness checks and consideration of endogeneity issues. Second, the impact of population aging on corporate digital transformation exhibits significant heterogeneity across industries and regions. Specifically, the aging population has a more pronounced effect on the digital transformation of labor-intensive enterprises and companies located in the eastern regions, where the degree of aging is more pronounced. The conclusions of this study provide empirical evidence and policy implications for actively responding to population aging and advancing corporate digital transformation in the context of an aging population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 124070"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Antecedent configurations toward radical green innovation: Based on resource orchestration theory

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124038

Rixiao Cui , Enjun Xia , Xiaoli Guo

引用次数: 0

Climate transition risk and industry returns: The impact of green innovation and carbon market uncertainty

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124056

Qi Zhou , Jiajun Ni , Cunyi Yang

{"title":"Climate transition risk and industry returns: The impact of green innovation and carbon market uncertainty","authors":"Qi Zhou , Jiajun Ni , Cunyi Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124056","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores how climate transition risk, green innovation, and carbon market uncertainty influence industry returns in economic cycles, providing crucial insights for industry-level low-carbon transition pathways. Utilizing an input-output (IO) life-cycle assessment model, we measure the total carbon emissions and carbon intensity of 28 industries in China from 2002 to 2020, distinguishing between direct and indirect emissions. We investigate the risk premium associated with transition risk and industry returns and analyze the moderating effects of physical risk, carbon market uncertainty, and green innovation. Our findings indicate that higher transition risk correlates with lower industry returns, with physical risk exacerbating this negative impact, while carbon market uncertainty and green innovations mitigate it. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that direct carbon emissions primarily drive the negative premium. Notably, the adverse effect of transition risk on industry returns has diminished since the Paris Agreement and is more evident in industries with lower concentration levels and higher centrality degree. This research offers new evidence on the interplay between climate transition risk and economic cycles, emphasizing the role of green finance and technological innovation in forecasting and navigating future economic developments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 124056"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143478603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Can gold hedge against uncertainty in the cryptocurrency and energy markets?

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124050

Meng Qin , Xuefeng Shao , Chengming Hu , Chi Wei Su

{"title":"Can gold hedge against uncertainty in the cryptocurrency and energy markets?","authors":"Meng Qin , Xuefeng Shao , Chengming Hu , Chi Wei Su","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124050","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124050","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Studying gold's ability to shield against uncertainties in energy and cryptocurrency markets could aid investors in refining investment portfolios. A novel wavelet quantile correlation methodology is developed to dissect the relationships between the cryptocurrency policy uncertainty index (CPUI) and gold price (GP), energy-related uncertainty index (ERUI) and GP across various quantiles and time horizons. We find that CPUI mainly correlates positively with GP across most quantiles. Gold offers stronger hedging against cryptocurrency policy uncertainty over medium- to long-term horizons than short-term. ERUI's mixed correlations with GP suggest that gold's ability to hedge against energy-related uncertainty is not permanent. By comparison, CPUI has a stronger link with GP than ERUI, indicating gold's more significant hedging potential during cryptocurrency policy uncertainties. During COVID-19, CPUI positively correlated with GP in the short term but negatively in the medium run, confirming gold's short-term hedging against cryptocurrency policy uncertainty. However, EPUI generally negatively correlates with GP, showing limited hedging capacity against energy-related uncertainty. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, CPUI and ERUI strongly positively correlated with GP, highlighting gold's safe haven role against these uncertainties. Considering these results, valuable insights are furnished for investors and governments to respond flexibly to changes in financial markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 124050"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0