Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第5页

How artificial intelligence promotes new quality productive forces of firms: A dynamic capability view 人工智能如何促进企业新的优质生产力：动态能力视角

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124128

Tachia Chin , Zhisheng Li , Leping Huang , Xinyu Li

{"title":"How artificial intelligence promotes new quality productive forces of firms: A dynamic capability view","authors":"Tachia Chin , Zhisheng Li , Leping Huang , Xinyu Li","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124128","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124128","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global economic growth has entered into the recovery phase of the economic cycle that is resilient yet slow, while the main culprit lies in the lower growth of green total factor productivity (TFP) caused by climate change intensification. It is imperative to formulate unconventional productivity models that can simultaneously solve ecological concerns and the crucial challenges posed by low innovation-driven productivity. This research aims to explore how and whether artificial intelligence (AI) as a critical dynamic capability to strengthen the development of firms' new quality productive forces (NQPFs). Based on the sample of Chinese manufacturing listed companies from 2011 to 2022, our findings show that AI promotes the development of firms' NQPFs; green innovation mediates the AI–NQPFs relationship, while economic policy uncertainty (EPU) moderates the above-mentioned mediating mechanism. Theoretically, our research extends Marx's view of productive forces to create a new construct of advanced productivity in China. Considering AI as a critical dynamic capability, we also provide insights into how productive forces are formed by human intelligence and AI. Practically, our findings help policymakers and practitioners reduce the impact of EPU caused partly by climate changes through AI usage and thereby predict the next trend of sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"216 ","pages":"Article 124128"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143826005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Crude oil Price forecasting: Leveraging machine learning for global economic stability 原油价格预测：利用机器学习促进全球经济稳定

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124133

Amar Rao , Gagan Deep Sharma , Aviral Kumar Tiwari , Mohammad Razib Hossain , Dhairya Dev

{"title":"Crude oil Price forecasting: Leveraging machine learning for global economic stability","authors":"Amar Rao , Gagan Deep Sharma , Aviral Kumar Tiwari , Mohammad Razib Hossain , Dhairya Dev","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124133","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124133","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The volatility of the energy market, particularly crude oil, significantly impacts macroeconomic indices, such as inflation, economic growth, currency exchange rates, and trade balances. Accurate crude oil price forecasting is crucial to risk management and global economic stability. This study examines various models, including GARCH (1,1), Vanilla LSTM, GARCH (1,1) LSTM, and GARCH (1,1) GRU, to predict Brent crude oil prices using different time frequencies and sample periods. The LSTM and GARCH (1,1)-GRU hybrid models showed superior performance, with LSTM slightly better in predictive accuracy and GARCH (1,1)-GRU in minimizing squared errors. These findings emphasize the importance of precise crude oil price forecasting for the global energy market and manufacturing sectors that rely on crude oil prices. Accurate forecasting helps ensure economic sustainability and stability and prevents disruptions to production and distribution chains in both developed and emerging economies. Policymakers may choose to implement energy security measures in response to the significant impact of crude oil price volatility on the macroeconomic indicators. These measures could include maintaining strategic reserves, diversifying energy sources, and decreasing the dependence on volatile oil markets. By doing so, a country's ability to handle oil price fluctuations and ensure a stable energy supply can be enhanced.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"216 ","pages":"Article 124133"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143823830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The quintuple innovation helix plus AI: A prospective retrospective approach and the use case of semiconductors 五重创新螺旋加上人工智能：半导体的前瞻性回顾方法和用例

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124122

Elias G. Carayannis , Steffen Preissler

{"title":"The quintuple innovation helix plus AI: A prospective retrospective approach and the use case of semiconductors","authors":"Elias G. Carayannis , Steffen Preissler","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124122","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124122","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article explores the intricate connections between economic, (geo)political, societal, scientific, and environmental factors aiming to foster dialogue on leveraging past developments for a desirable future (e.g. “Green ICT”, “Society 6.0”). Utilizing the Quintuple-Innovation-Helix-plus-AI Framework (QIH + AI), which integrates policy, economy, science, society, and environment (planet) as interrelated strands, the study emphasizes the significance of knowledge flows in shaping these domains.</div><div>The research identifies a gap in applying the QIH + AI model to the semiconductor industry and proposes a retrospective analysis of historical milestones to elucidate the evolution of this sector. By mapping these milestones onto QIH + AI, we demonstrate the dynamic interconnections among the strands and the influence of AI on the overall system development. Thus, we present a historical examination at a meta level (analogy: learning vs. learning-how-to-learn vs learning-to-learn-how-to-learn). This has not been a subject of research so far, constituting a notable gap.</div><div>The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and industry leaders in navigating the complexities of technological advancements within the semiconductor landscape, ultimately contributing to a holistic understanding of the interplay between policy, economy, technology, society, and the environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"216 ","pages":"Article 124122"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143823825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Empowering sustainable future in OECD economies: Aligning humanitarian aid with energy generation 为经合组织经济体的可持续未来赋能：使人道主义援助与能源生产相结合

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124126

Yunpeng Sun , Shreya Pal , Mantu Kumar Mahalik , Giray Gozgor

引用次数: 0

Why not all ‘winners’ are successful: Explaining project performance of publicly funded innovation consortia 为什么不是所有的“赢家”都成功：解释公共资助创新联盟的项目绩效

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124124

Evelien P.M. Croonen, Eelko K.R.E. Huizingh

{"title":"Why not all ‘winners’ are successful: Explaining project performance of publicly funded innovation consortia","authors":"Evelien P.M. Croonen, Eelko K.R.E. Huizingh","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124124","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124124","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study contributes to understanding the effectiveness of competitive public funding for innovation by studying the conditions and processes influencing project performance of publicly funded innovation consortia. Whereas prior research aimed to explain the selection of projects that receive funding (‘winners’) and the consequences of receiving funding for organizations and societies, we investigate <em>project-level</em> performance in ‘winning’ innovation consortia. We build on research on inter-firm and multi-stakeholder collaboration to identify governance challenges and strategies affecting performance of collaborative innovation projects. Using a mixed method design, we conducted inductive analyses of quantitative and qualitative data of 132 publicly funded consortia within the Netherlands to explore the conditions shaping a consortium's project performance. Our empirical findings provide multiple insights into the impact of relational and structural governance on project performance. First, relational governance is more important than structural governance in explaining project performance. Second, the three stages in publicly funded innovation projects (i.e. application, selection, and execution) are interdependent and conditions in <em>each</em> stage – rather than only the execution stage – ultimately affect project performance. Third, external stakeholders affect project performance; the involvement of end-users promotes project performance, while consultants and funding authorities may enhance or hinder project performance depending on the roles they undertake (i.e. supporting versus leading for consultants, and supporting versus controlling for funding authorities).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"216 ","pages":"Article 124124"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fighting fake news in the age of generative AI: Strategic insights from multi-stakeholder interactions 在生成人工智能时代打击假新闻：来自多方利益相关者互动的战略见解

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124125

Rui Ma , Xueqing Wang , Guo-Rui Yang

{"title":"Fighting fake news in the age of generative AI: Strategic insights from multi-stakeholder interactions","authors":"Rui Ma , Xueqing Wang , Guo-Rui Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124125","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124125","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The advancements in algorithm technology have led to a proliferation of artificial intelligence-generated fake news, resulting in significant social harm. Promoting multi-stakeholder engagement in fake news governance is beneficial for establishing a robust information ecosystem. The primary stakeholders, including the government at the policy-making end, user-generated content platforms at the algorithm development end, and opinion leaders at the news dissemination end, possess varying degrees of initiative and roles in governance. The main objective of this study is to investigate the evolutionary process of behaviors among multi-stakeholders in fake news governance and their influencing factors under different news environments. This study constructs an evolutionary game model to identify the conditions for the realization of five models of fake news governance. Stakeholders' behaviors in different states are affected by external factors, such as news environment, penalties, and incentives, as well as internal factors, such as governance capability deficiencies and platform algorithm reliability. The research findings expand the boundary of adaptive governance theory by revealing the mechanisms of stakeholder collaboration and the interaction between stakeholders and the news environment in fake news governance. These insights offer valuable guidance for advancing the transformation and enhancement of fake news governance models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"216 ","pages":"Article 124125"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

What drives SME export intensity in transition economies? The role of infrastructure, digitalisation and innovation capabilities 转型经济体中小企业出口强度的驱动因素是什么？基础设施、数字化和创新能力的作用

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124123

Jude Edeh , Adeniyi D. Olarewaju , Samuel Yaw Kusi

{"title":"What drives SME export intensity in transition economies? The role of infrastructure, digitalisation and innovation capabilities","authors":"Jude Edeh , Adeniyi D. Olarewaju , Samuel Yaw Kusi","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124123","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124123","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The role of macro-level factors has been identified as pivotal to firm performance. Yet, there is little focus on how home-country infrastructure influences the export performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in transition countries. This paper addresses this concern by arguing that the relevance of home-country infrastructure on SME export intensity depends on the dynamic interactions of enterprise capabilities. We empirically test this assertion with a sample of 8048 SMEs from 16 transition economies. Using the Structural equation modelling technique, we find that home-country infrastructure does not promote SME export intensity. Additionally, we find that home-country infrastructure dampens the digitalisation of export-oriented SMEs. Moreover, we provide evidence suggesting that SMEs can benefit from digitalisation by leveraging innovation capabilities in their export strategies. The findings of this study strongly indicate that policy actions targeting infrastructure improvement in transition economies will enhance SME capabilities and export performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124123"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143785147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How does patent portfolio structure affect patent value in different technological environments? Evidence from Chinese high-tech industries 不同技术环境下专利组合结构如何影响专利价值？来自中国高科技产业的证据

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124127

Lanhua Li , Daqi Xin , Xi Yang , Xiaodan Yu

{"title":"How does patent portfolio structure affect patent value in different technological environments? Evidence from Chinese high-tech industries","authors":"Lanhua Li , Daqi Xin , Xi Yang , Xiaodan Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124127","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124127","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent decades, races for individual patents among firms have been shifting to strategic competition based on patent portfolios. This transition underscores the importance of understanding how individual patents can be coherently integrated into a patent portfolio to enhance their value. We argue that individual patent value is not only determined by inherent patent-level characteristics but also hinges on two characteristics of patent portfolio structure—technological advantage and relatedness. Based on the patent data of Chinese listed companies in high technology industries from 2007 to 2019, we employ patent survival analysis and find that technological advantage of a patent portfolio in a specific field can increase the value of patents in the field. In addition, technological relatedness across different fields also renders higher patent value. We further document the moderating effects of two external technological environment factors. Specifically, as external technological competition intensifies, the positive effects of portfolio advantage and portfolio relatedness on patent value become stronger. Conversely, external technological opportunity richness weakens the positive relationship between technological relatedness and patent value. Our findings yield strategic insights for firms seeking to refine their patent portfolio structures in sync with technology trends.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124127"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A multi-criterion decision making method for renewable energy storage technology selection with incomplete evaluation information 一种评价信息不完全的可再生能源储能技术选择多准则决策方法

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124116

Huchang Liao, Xiaofang Li

{"title":"A multi-criterion decision making method for renewable energy storage technology selection with incomplete evaluation information","authors":"Huchang Liao, Xiaofang Li","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Selecting renewable energy storage technologies (RESTs) requires experts with knowledge in different fields to evaluate RESTs under different criteria. However, specialists are usually proficient in a particular field and thus are difficult to provide complete evaluation information of alternatives on all criteria. Besides, different decision makers (DMs) have different risk attitudes on potential risks and benefits. This study proposes a multi-criterion decision making model that considers the causality between criteria, the incomplete evaluation information from specialists, and different risk attitudes of DMs. First, the DEMATEL is used to analyze the causality between criteria and elicit criteria weights, and the interpretive structural modeling is utilized to construct the hierarchical relationship diagram of criteria. Based on the causality of criteria, a Bayesian network is constructed to infer the missing evaluation information of alternatives under the criteria unfamiliar to specialists. Alternatives are then ranked by combining the improved cumulative prospect theory and the combined compromise solution method. An illustrative example is given to validate the applicability of the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis and simulation experiment are given to explore the influence of DMs' risk attitudes to loss and gain on the ranking of alternatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124116"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143769090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

5G is not just another G: A review of the 5G business model and ecosystem challenges 5G不仅仅是另一个G：回顾5G商业模式和生态系统挑战

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124121

Mattia Magnaghi , Antonio Ghezzi , Andrea Rangone

{"title":"5G is not just another G: A review of the 5G business model and ecosystem challenges","authors":"Mattia Magnaghi , Antonio Ghezzi , Andrea Rangone","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124121","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124121","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The fifth generation of mobile communications (5G) is a revolutionary phenomenon, which could deeply change the competitive landscape for wireless services. While 5G is a hot technological topic, there is a dearth of research that specifically explores 5G deployment challenges from a strategic perspective. Such limitation calls for a study, whose aim is to: (i) take stock of the current debate on 5G, (ii) critically review the extant literature with a focus on the theoretical streams employed to investigate the phenomenon from a strategic perspective, (iii) position the 5G research at the intersection of technology and business by identifying and classifying challenges faced by both Mobile Network Operators and other actors in the 5G ecosystem; and (iv) propose relevant future research avenues for theory and practice. To comply with such objectives, we conducted a systematic search and a review on a sample of 23 journal articles concerning the major strategic challenges the 5G ecosystem's stakeholders must face. From a theoretical perspective, we offer a systematic study of the strategic implications of 5G from a holistic viewpoint, without focusing on a specific use case. We analyse the theories currently adopted to investigate the phenomenon, while proposing alternative ones that could generate new research questions. From a practitioner's perspective, our study aims to increase actors' strategic awareness of such technological innovation's implications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124121"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143759950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0