Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第5页

Understanding the social construction of the metaverse with Q methodology 用 Q 方法了解元宇宙的社会建构

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123716

{"title":"Understanding the social construction of the metaverse with Q methodology","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123716","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123716","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Following social constructivism, the Metaverse can be seen as a “boundary object,” allowing “interpretative flexibility” across communities while maintaining a “common identity” to facilitate interactions and consensus. Understanding the social construction of the Metaverse requires acknowledging diverse perspectives that shape the discourse surrounding it. This research employed an internet-based Q methodology study to examine such “boundaries” within the Metaverse discourse. The study involved 46 participants from 14 countries and diverse sectors within the global Metaverse industry, who engaged in online card ranking exercises using statements covering five essential aspects of the Metaverse: Terminology, Cultural Values, Societal Impact, Economics, and Regulation. The factor analysis revealed four prominent frames of perspective: 1) Debating Liberal Globalism; 2) Critiques of the Metaverse as a Threat to Humanity; 3) The Metaverse as Neoliberalization; and 4) the New Prometheans: Techno-Optimism in the Digital Revolution. These frames underscore polarized perceptions related to the political-economic aspects of Metaverse development, particularly concerning affordability, infrastructure limitation, and digital literacy, all crucial for preventing global divisions. The findings contribute to policy dialogues focused on the social impact of technology innovation. Additionally, this research provides hands-on experience in designing and implementing a digitalized Q methodology, resulting in more systematic and transparent Q exercise procedures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142097679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An evolutionary dynamical analysis of low-carbon technology diffusion among enterprises in the complex network 复杂网络中企业间低碳技术扩散的演化动力学分析

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123726

{"title":"An evolutionary dynamical analysis of low-carbon technology diffusion among enterprises in the complex network","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123726","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123726","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The diffusion of low-carbon technologies (LCTs) is a critical channel to mitigate carbon emissions. The government plays an important role in guiding the proliferation of LCTs among enterprises, but due to issues such as regulatory costs, unequal resource distribution, and inefficient regulation it is inevitable that there will be inadequate supervision. Therefore, this study incorporates the government’s probabilistic regulation into the research framework and constructs a networked evolutionary game model in which the government, enterprises, and consumers play a role together. Based on the constructed game model, we explore the impact of carbon taxes, subsidies, probabilistic government supervision, market demand, initial fixed investment cost, network size, and firm heterogeneity on the diffusion of LCTs. In addition, we extend the model to consider scenarios involving dynamic market demands and government policies The results demonstrate that factors such as subsidies, probabilistic government supervision, market demand, network size, and firm heterogeneity promote the diffusion of LCTs, while carbon taxes and initial fixed investment cost under a small total demand inhibit the spread of LCTs. Our exploration sheds some light on the diffusion of LCTs from the perspective of demand and supply sides, which provides an effective reference for the formulation of relevant policies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142097680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Future ecosystem business model tool: Design science and field test in the efuel ecosystem towards the sustainability transition 未来生态系统商业模式工具：在电子燃料生态系统中进行设计科学和实地测试，以实现可持续性过渡

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123682

{"title":"Future ecosystem business model tool: Design science and field test in the efuel ecosystem towards the sustainability transition","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123682","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123682","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents a novel business model design tool called <em>Future ecosystem business model (FEBM)</em>. The FEBM aims to address the lack of managerial tools linking business models, foresight, and ecosystem strategizing in the context of systemic technological changes, as those characterizing the sustainability transition in a multi-level perspective. The tool has been shaped through a design science approach building on a structured review of the literature. A field test was conducted through a case study to test the proposed tool. The empirical context was that of a publicly funded project in the field of electrofuels (efuels). The project foresaw the development and integration of several technologies, whose adoption was likely to have significant implications within and across industries. The proposed approach contributes to the literature on business model design in the context of technology-driven transformations characterized by high uncertainty and interdependence, such as those related to the sustainability transition. Strategy and innovation managers may find in the proposed FEBM tool an actionable approach to shape decision-making against far-reaching technological and societal challenges.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162524004803/pdfft?md5=da4867d12b4e8f6131c0cc7b31d6ab34&pid=1-s2.0-S0040162524004803-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142097681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sustainable agricultural technologies of the future: Determination of adoption readiness for different consumer groups 未来的可持续农业技术：确定不同消费群体的采用准备情况

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123697

{"title":"Sustainable agricultural technologies of the future: Determination of adoption readiness for different consumer groups","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123697","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123697","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The rapid increase in population and unsustainable agricultural practices has significantly damaged the environment. Our study explores how to achieve food security through environmentally friendly methods such as controlled environment agriculture (CEA), genetic editing (GE), and farming automation (FA), with an emphasis on the importance of consumer acceptance of these technologies. Analyzing data from 2138 Australians and 1760 New Zealanders, we employ a two-step clustering method—(1) hierarchical clustering and (2) k-means clustering—to categorize consumers on the basis of their demographic and lifestyle preferences into three segments that capture differences in attitudes toward new agricultural technologies: “Green Urbanites,” “Environmentally Unconcerned,” and “Skeptical Foodie.” Our findings reveal that Green Urbanites are the most open to adopting CEA, GE, and FA, while Skeptical Foodies and Environmentally Unconcerned are more reluctant. We contribute to theory by studying a novel facet of consumer acceptance of sustainable technologies and revealing how consumption, living, and lifestyle patterns motivate new technology acceptance in the agricultural sector. To inform practice, we suggest tailored strategies to increase engagement of the identified segments and promote wider acceptance of sustainable agricultural practices for enhanced food security.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162524004955/pdfft?md5=4e3d7c829bdf70ed8616b3dbbe906fa8&pid=1-s2.0-S0040162524004955-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142097678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Consumer’s e-lifestyle and repurchase intention in online food ordering services: Exploring the role of e-WOM and habit 消费者的电子生活方式与网上订餐服务的重购意向：探索电子口碑和习惯的作用

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123647

引用次数: 0

Examining trust as a critical factor for the adoption of electric vehicle sharing via necessary condition analysis 通过必要条件分析研究信任是采用电动汽车共享的关键因素

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123681

{"title":"Examining trust as a critical factor for the adoption of electric vehicle sharing via necessary condition analysis","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123681","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123681","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study aimed to deepen our understanding of the necessary conditions for the adoption of electric car sharing. Given the identified sufficient factors (should-have), our study focused on identifying those that are necessary (must-have). Specifically, we investigated the role of trust as a critical, necessary factor for the success of an electric car sharing scheme. We conceptualized the intention to use electric car sharing within an extended framework of planned behavior, incorporating trust beliefs. Using survey data from 317 Taiwanese respondents, we employed necessary condition analysis in combination with partial least squares structural equation modelling. Key findings include (1) Trust is not directly associated with adoption intention; however, it plays an indirect role in intention formation and is a must-have factor for the adoption of electric car sharing. (2) Social pressure was found to be neither sufficient nor necessary for usage intention. However, a distinct lack of social pressure appears to guarantee the failure of electric car sharing adoption. (3) Our results confirm both conceptual and empirical claims that positive attitudes toward, and control perceptions about, electric car sharing are both sufficient and necessary for adoption. The implications for both practitioners and researchers are discussed in detail.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162524004797/pdfft?md5=6a8807f4eef15e1a0e7d8be676789d43&pid=1-s2.0-S0040162524004797-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142097676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An iterative consumer-centric and technology-driven product innovation strategy based on selective and dynamic consumer attention 以消费者为中心、技术驱动的迭代式产品创新战略，以消费者的选择性和动态关注为基础

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123713

{"title":"An iterative consumer-centric and technology-driven product innovation strategy based on selective and dynamic consumer attention","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123713","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123713","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Consumer attention is a critical factor in driving consumer-centric innovation characterized by selectivity and dynamism. However, existing literature has emphasized the selectivity but overlooked the dynamism vital for frequent iterative innovation. This study addresses the gap by exploring innovation strategies with dynamic consumer attention. We constructed a data-driven agent-based model (ABM) with two decision-making entities: manufacturers and consumers. Aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA) results obtained from consumer reviews are used to shape consumer agents with selective and dynamic attention. A comparative experiment, utilizing manufacturers insights based on various consumer-generated knowledge, was devised to evaluate iterative innovation efficacy. The findings highlight benefits of innovation strategies considering consumer attention drivers, especially consumer self-learning and social influence behaviors. Additionally, we identified consumers' observation bias in product attributes exhibits a notable inverted U-shaped effect on new product adoption, and negatively impacting repeat purchases. Moreover, our results show that as technology for new products matures, incremental iteration based on consumer attention becomes the optimal strategy. However, rapid technological advancements or disruptive changes could make attention-focused strategies less reliable. These insights offer valuable implications for manufacturers to optimize product innovation strategies by understanding consumer characteristics, limited innovation resources, and current technological conditions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142097677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fostering strategic synergy: Empirical insights on aligning innovation activities with competitive strategies 促进战略协同：将创新活动与竞争战略相结合的经验启示

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123704

{"title":"Fostering strategic synergy: Empirical insights on aligning innovation activities with competitive strategies","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123704","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123704","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>An effective innovation strategy is crucial for firm performance and national economic growth, yet many firms still face the challenge of misalignment between their innovation activities and strategies. While previous studies focused on the mediation role of innovation activities on strategy and performance, research is needed to examine the complex interdependencies between strategies and innovation activities to better understand their impact on firm performance.</p><p>From a configurational perspective, this study investigates how different combinations of innovation activities and strategies influence firm performance. Twenty combinative effects of four categories of innovation activities and five strategic types on two firm performance measures (growth and profit) were explored, resulting in the creation of an <em>innovation-strategy alignment map</em>. This study contributes to innovation strategy literature by providing the alignment map, where four configurational clusters with equifinality were identified. It also contributes to competitive strategy literature by offering empirical verification for the “pure” versus “hybrid” debate and identifying two new types of hybrids with more and different strategic dimensions by using an empirical method, thus advancing the call for more detailed hybrid strategy research in this area. In addition, the <em>innovation-strategy alignment map</em> provides options to managers with different resources and capacities for effective planning.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016252400502X/pdfft?md5=1e34858aea963799fd69f7df83942403&pid=1-s2.0-S004016252400502X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142087046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring the individual adoption of human resource analytics: Behavioural beliefs and the role of machine learning characteristics 探索个人采用人力资源分析的情况：行为信念和机器学习特征的作用

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123709

{"title":"Exploring the individual adoption of human resource analytics: Behavioural beliefs and the role of machine learning characteristics","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123709","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123709","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The technological capabilities of Human Resource Analytics (HRA), enhanced by recent innovations in Machine Learning (ML), offer exciting opportunities. However, organisations often fail to realise these potentials because of a limited understanding of why individuals choose to adopt or disregard respective tools. Prior research on innovation adoption offers preliminary insights but fails to aggregate the determinants of individual adoption into actionable suggestions for decisions in the ML adoption process. Our study applies focused interviews to examine non-ML experts' reasoning for using a specific tool tailored to a public sector organisation, which corresponds to the usual end-user perspective of ML-based HRA adoption. By drawing from the HRA adoption framework, provided by <span><span>Vargas et al. (2018)</span></span>, we contribute to the literature by identifying relevant beliefs and experiences influencing one's intention to adopt ML-based HRA and by qualitatively linking these beliefs to ML characteristics such as transparency, automation and fairness. For practitioners, we provide actionable guidance emphasising the need to ensure fairness proactively, as interviewees do not consider this aspect when deciding to adopt ML-based HRA.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162524005079/pdfft?md5=1489deb97ebced41ab481ad6dd55efac&pid=1-s2.0-S0040162524005079-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142097289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How does digital tax administration affect R&D manipulation? Evidence from dual machine learning 数字税收管理如何影响研发操纵？来自双重机器学习的证据

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123691

{"title":"How does digital tax administration affect R&D manipulation? Evidence from dual machine learning","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123691","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123691","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Governing firms' R&D manipulation is crucial amid the prevalent opportunism during innovation in emerging economies. This study employs data on listed companies in China from 2010 to 2021 and uses the Golden Tax Project III as a quasi-natural experiment to estimate the effect of digital tax administration (DTA) on R&D manipulation via a dual machine learning model. Based on the capability, opportunity, and motivation-behavior (COM-B) theoretical framework, we explore the key pathways and identify the heterogeneous effects of DTA on various R&D manipulation motivations and directions. The results indicate the following: (1) DTA can regulate firms' R&D manipulation behavior and incentivize innovation quality and diversity. (2) DTA reduces R&D manipulation by enhancing accounting information quality and transmission efficiency in capital markets (internal and external information channels), strengthening tax audits (external monitoring channels), and curbing managerial self-interest and tax avoidance motives (internal motivation channels). (3) The DTA primarily functions as a governance instrument to address manipulation in various directions driven by tax avoidance and executive self-interest motives. These findings offer valuable insights for exploring governance models to address R&D manipulation in emerging economies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142087049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0