Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

{"title":"Loyal to the concept or to the platform? The complexity of the dual loyalty of crowdfunding backers","authors":"Kalanit Efrat ,&nbsp;Shaked Gilboa ,&nbsp;Andreas Wald","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123854","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123854","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Backer loyalty is an important, yet under-researched driver of crowdfunding success. The concept of loyalty in crowdfunding is particularly complex because it integrates both loyalty to crowdfunding activity and loyalty to a specific platform. Using the elaboration likelihood model (ELM) as a theoretical foundation, this study investigates how platform-related factors influence backers' distinct loyalties. A survey of 486 active crowdfunding backers with different levels of repeated activity was conducted. The findings indicate that the different loyalties of backers—platform and crowdfunding—can be explained by the central and peripheral routes of the ELM. The central route effect is more significant for loyalty to the platform, whereas loyalty to crowdfunding is influenced by elements from both the central and peripheral routes. These insights allow platform managers to promote their platforms' activity by facilitating the relevant elements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123854"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142560837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The relationship of digital transformation and corporate sustainability: Synergies and tensions","authors":"Roxana Ologeanu-Taddei ,&nbsp;Sarah Hönigsberg ,&nbsp;Pauline Weritz ,&nbsp;Hendrik Wache ,&nbsp;Ferdinand Mittermeier ,&nbsp;Silviana Tana ,&nbsp;Duong Dang ,&nbsp;Tuire Hautala-Kankaanpää ,&nbsp;Samuli Pekkola","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123809","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123809","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Scholars within management disciplines have shown a growing interest in digital transformation and sustainability phenomena to address global societal challenges. Indeed, previous studies have investigated the initial analysis of the intersection between these two emerging and intertwined topics. However, there has been no comprehensive or critical analysis of the relationships among these concepts. Nevertheless, a clear understanding of this phenomenon is key to developing rigorous and meaningful knowledge and enabling future research. Our critical review analyses 91 articles on digital transformation and sustainability research to address this issue. The findings propose a synthesis of the definition types of digital transformation and sustainability in four categories, from which only 16 articles show a relationship between both concepts. This study theoretically contributes to management research by uncovering issues and assumptions around the conceptualizations of digital transformation and sustainability at the corporate level. By doing so, we present a consolidation of conceived knowledge and clarify these interrelated concepts. Moreover, understanding and assessing these relationships will lead to a future research agenda and implications for practitioners.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123809"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting Cyber Threats and Pertinent Mitigation Technologies","authors":"Zaid Almahmoud ,&nbsp;Paul D. Yoo ,&nbsp;Ernesto Damiani ,&nbsp;Kim-Kwang Raymond Choo ,&nbsp;Chan Yeob Yeun","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123836","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123836","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Geopolitical instability is exacerbating the risk of catastrophic cyber-attacks striking where defences are weak. Nevertheless, cyber-attack trend forecasting predominantly relies on human expertise, which is susceptible to subjectivity and potential bias. As a solution, we have recently presented a novel study that harnesses machine learning for long-term cyber-attack forecasting. Building upon this groundwork, our research advances to the next level, by predicting the disparity between cyber-attack trends and the trend of the relevant alleviation technologies. The proposed approach applies key constructs of Protection Motivation Theory while introducing a proactive version of the theory. Our predictive analysis aims to offer strategic insights for the decision of investment in cyber security technologies. It also provides a sound foundation for the strategic decisions of national defence agencies. To achieve this objective, we have expanded our dataset, which now encompasses records spanning 42 distinct cyber-attack types and various related features, alongside data concerning the trends of 98 pertinent technologies, dating back to 2011. The dataset features were meticulously curated from diverse sources, including news articles, blogs, government advisories, as well as from platforms such as Elsevier, Twitter, and Python APIs. With our comprehensive dataset in place, we construct a graph that elucidates the intricate interplay between cyber threats and the development of pertinent alleviation technologies. To forecast the graph, we introduce a novel Bayesian adaptation of a recently proposed graph neural network model, which effectively captures and predicts these trends. We further demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed features in this context. Furthermore, our study extends its horizon by generating future data projections for the next three years, encompassing forecasts for the evolving graph, including predictions of the gap between cyber-attack trends and the trend of the associated technologies. As a consequential outcome of our forecasting efforts, we introduce the concept of “alleviation technologies cycle”, delineating the key phases in the life cycle of 98 technologies. These findings serve as a foundational resource, offering valuable guidance for future investment and strategic defence decisions within the realm of cyber security related technologies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123836"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Digital transformation of enterprises promotes green technology innovation – The regulated mediation model","authors":"Baoyi Wang ,&nbsp;Inayat Khan ,&nbsp;Chenlu Ge ,&nbsp;Huma Naz","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123812","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123812","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper empirically investigates the impact of digital transformation on green technology innovation against the background of China's 14th Five-Year Plan and dual‑carbon targets in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2008 to 2021. It is found that (1) enterprise digital transformation significantly promotes green technology innovation. (2) financing constraints play a partial mediating role in the effect of digital transformation on green technology innovation. (3) economic policy uncertainty can regulate the direct effect of digital transformation on green technological innovation, and can also regulate the first half of the path of the mediating effect, that is, the stronger the economic policy uncertainty faced by enterprises, the more significant the effect of digital transformation empowering green technology innovation, and the more obvious the effect on alleviating the financing constraints of enterprises. (4) Further research finds that digitalization empowers green technological innovation more significantly in state-owned enterprises, industries with a high degree of competition and enterprises in the eastern region. Government subsidies significantly outperform equity and debt financing in promoting green technology innovation. The impact of green technology innovation on carbon emissions is U-shaped. The above findings suggest that the government should provide incentives and increase number of subsidies to encourage enterprises to carry out digital transformation to promote green technology innovation, and also reveal that enterprises should actively respond to digital policies and focus on the integration of digitalization and greening.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"209 ","pages":"Article 123812"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does resource orchestration theory ensure the better SME performance: A three-wave time lag investigation among manufacturing SMEs of the developing economies","authors":"Sheema Matloob ,&nbsp;Ali Raza ,&nbsp;Ali Waqas ,&nbsp;Mohammad Jamal Khan ,&nbsp;Nabeel Nisar","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123807","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123807","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the contemporary business landscape, changes in business practices, including technological advancements, increasing competition, and rapidly changing customer preferences, pose challenges for SMEs to survive. These rapid changes stressed that SMEs change and adopt strategies to mitigate the declining performance. Therefore, this study aims to examine the influence of financial capital availability (FCA) and entrepreneurial competencies (EC) to predict SMEs' performance with the intervention of strategic change (SC). The study used Resource Orchestration Theory (ROT) as an underpinning theory. Based on the quantitative research design, the research collected data through a three-wave time lag investigation among manufacturing SMEs from various cities of two provinces of Pakistan, namely Punjab and Sindh provinces. The research used SPSS 21 and Smart PLS 4 to analyze 203 usable responses from the manufacturing SMEs. The findings show that FCA and EC significantly influence the SMEs' performance. Further, SC also significantly mediated the relationship of FCA and EC with SMEs' performance. This study underscores the consideration of key FCA, EC, and SC strategies to improve SMEs' performance among emerging countries. Further, this study extends the theoretical knowledge while utilizing ROT as a more nuanced perspective among the complex relationships of this study's variables. This study outlines practical implications that are critical determinants for improving SMEs' performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123807"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Grounded theory modeling based on multisource evidence fusion","authors":"Yuan-Wei Du ,&nbsp;Yi-Pin Fan ,&nbsp;Jiao-Jiao Zhong","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123826","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123826","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Grounded theory, a mainstream qualitative research method in the social sciences, is challenged by ambiguity in the theory construction phase. Drawing on the Dempster–Shafer theory, this study establishes a new method: grounded theory modeling with multisource evidence fusion (MEF-GT). By incorporating the objectivity and precision of quantitative analysis into the qualitative analysis of grounded theory, MEF-GT enhances the trustworthiness and reliability of the constructed theory. In MEF-GT, after completing the coding phase, relationship functions are constructed between initial concepts based on the evidence extracted from the data. By assigning weights to each piece of evidence and assessing the reliability of their sources, relationships are fused layer by layer following the generalized combination rule until a quantified relationship function between categories is formed. In addition, more intuitive and expressive theoretical frameworks can be constructed based on category portfolios with different relational strengths. Finally, we demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of the method using a case study of the ecological development practices of marine ranching enterprises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123826"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Digital technology-enabled carbon-neutral management: A mechanism of supply chain digitalization in carbon performance","authors":"Lixu Li ,&nbsp;Wenwen Zhu ,&nbsp;Long Wei ,&nbsp;Yaoqi Liu ,&nbsp;Nan Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123834","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123834","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A global industrial revolution is underway, marked by the pursuit of carbon neutrality and the widespread adoption of advanced digital technologies (DTs). However, existing studies focus on strategies and approaches to mitigate carbon emissions within individual firms, with limited emphasis on reducing carbon emissions throughout the supply chain (SC). To fill this gap, we investigate how SC digitalization influences SC carbon performance through the lens of the natural resource-based view (NRBV). Employing hierarchical regression analysis and the bootstrap method on survey data from 245 Chinese firms across various industries, we reveal that SC ecocentricity is a crucial mediator in linking the SC digitalization‑carbon performance association. Additionally, of the two SC governance modes, contractual governance, as opposed to relational governance, significantly mediates the SC digitalization‑carbon performance association. Most interestingly, we confirm the serial mediation effect involving SC ecocentricity and contractual governance. We enhance the current sustainability research by identifying influential factors in the effectiveness of SC digitalization within the context of carbon neutrality. We also provide practical insights for firms in effectively implementing DT-enabled carbon-neutral management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123834"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deciphering the determinants: What guides creators in choosing their metaverse platforms?","authors":"Yoonhyuk Jung ,&nbsp;Jinyoung Nam ,&nbsp;Hanbyul Choi ,&nbsp;Jonghwa Park","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123843","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123843","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aims to investigate which factors influence third-party developers' choice of metaverse platforms. As the metaverse has garnered considerable attention, many metaverse platforms have explosively launched. The intensified competition among metaverse platforms is increasing the value of third-party developers, who play a role of complementors in platform ecosystems as creating virtual properties. Despite the significant role of developers in the sustainability of these nascent metaverse platforms, our understanding of their choice of platforms remains sparse. The study employed an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is widely recognized for its efficiency in evaluating and ranking criteria at various levels within a hierarchical structure, aiding in systematic decision-making. The study scrutinizes not only the weights of three evaluation criteria (market attractiveness, technological readiness, and platform readiness), which have been commonly used in research on platform complementors, along with their sub-criteria, but also probes into developers' ultimate choice of specific platforms. Findings show that while user size, a sub-criterion of market attractiveness, emerges as the most crucial factor, the support of the developer community is less significant, differing from previous research findings. The study not only significantly enhances our understanding of the contemporary metaverse ecosystem, but also enriches knowledge of platform complementors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"210 ","pages":"Article 123843"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unpacking the intellectual structure and evolution trend of general-purpose technologies development in innovation studies","authors":"Yanan Xu,&nbsp;Yaowu Sun,&nbsp;Yiting Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123840","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123840","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>General-purpose technologies (GPTs) are crucial for advancing long-term economic growth. Previous research on GPTs has primarily focused on economics. However, in the innovation field, firms face greater challenges in appropriability and value creation due to GPTs' externalities. Research on GPTs in this flexible field may exhibit unique characteristics. Despite growing academic interest, related research remains fragmented, lacking a comprehensive theoretical system. Traditional literature reviews and bibliometric analyses often focus on the most cited articles, leading to citation biases and an emphasis on impact over theme discovery. Combining topic modeling with manual coding allows for the iteration of existing theories and the creation of new theoretical frameworks. Our study analyzed 532 articles on GPTs in the innovation field, identifying 11 topics using the LDA topic model. Through manual coding and the PyLDAvis visualization tool, we identified four research areas: jungle of GPTs, profiting from GPTs innovation, industrial convergence, and economic growth and wage inequality. We examined the evolutionary trajectory, and theoretical architecture of GPTs research, proposing a comprehensive framework. We urge scholars to extend GPTs research from the firm to the ecosystem level, consider the standardization and evolution of next-generation GPTs, and diversify research methods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"209 ","pages":"Article 123840"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From social norms to pro-environmental behavior: The role of destination social responsibility for families traveling with children","authors":"Iulian Adrian Sorcaru,&nbsp;Mihaela-Carmen Muntean,&nbsp;Ludmila-Daniela Manea,&nbsp;Rozalia Nistor","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123830","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123830","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sustainable business practices are vital for tourist destinations because they help tackle social and environmental challenges while addressing profit-oriented concerns. The purpose of this study was to explore pro-environmental behaviors in families. The values-identity-personal norm model was combined with the concept of destination social responsibility via normative influences. Partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) were applied in a mixed-methods approach. The findings confirm the values-identity-personal norm model's normative path to family pro-environmental behavior. The research contributes to theory and practice by introducing two new destination social responsibility perspectives: descriptive and injunctive. Based on social media normative influences on family endorsement of destination social responsibility messages, the analysis showed a significant direct effect of descriptive destination social responsibility and injunctive destination social responsibility on family personal norms. However, the mediating effect of family personal norms on family pro-environmental behavior was significant only for descriptive destination social responsibility. Perceived destination social responsibility activities during family vacations had a nonsignificant effect on family personal norms and family pro-environmental behavior. The fsQCA highlights multiple scenarios leading to family pro-environmental behavior. The findings are valuable for helping destination management organizations (DMOs) develop social marketing strategies for family ecotourism.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"209 ","pages":"Article 123830"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}