Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第9页

The effect of digital technologies and staff skill sets on hospital resilience: The role of supply chain information integration 数字技术和员工技能对医院弹性的影响：供应链信息集成的作用

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124075

Cristina De Luca, Nunzia Carbonara, Roberta Pellegrino

{"title":"The effect of digital technologies and staff skill sets on hospital resilience: The role of supply chain information integration","authors":"Cristina De Luca, Nunzia Carbonara, Roberta Pellegrino","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124075","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124075","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic have challenged hospitals, critical pillars of healthcare systems, revealing significant variations in their ability to respond effectively. Hospital resilience addresses the urgent need to understand how to enhance hospitals' capacity to respond effectively to crises. While numerous factors have been identified as critical to hospital resilience, they are often studied in isolation, overlooking the synergistic effects among them and lacking robust empirical validation. Grounded in the Resource-Based View, this paper investigates how key resources, namely digital technologies and staff skills, along with the capability of supply chain information integration (SCII), influence hospital resilience. Drawing on survey data from 130 Italian hospitals, the study examines the direct impact of these resources and capabilities on hospital resilience, as well as the mediating role of supply chain information integration, using structural equation modelling. The results reveal that digital technologies and external information integration capability directly affects hospital resilience. Moreover, the study underscores the importance of leveraging digital technologies and enhancing staff skills to foster supply chain information integration, which in turn mediates the relationship between these resources and hospital resilience. This research contributes significantly to theoretical and practical insights in hospital management and resilience strategies. The proposed theoretical framework enhances our understanding of hospital resilience dynamics by elucidating the direct influence of resources and capabilities, while also highlighting the mediating effect of supply chain information integration. These findings offer actionable insights for hospital managers to optimize resource allocation and capabilities amidst uncertainties, thereby fortifying hospital resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124075"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143551297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Requirements for trustworthy AI-enabled automated decision-making in the public sector: A systematic review 公共部门对可信赖的人工智能自动决策的要求：系统回顾

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124076

Olusegun Agbabiaka , Adegboyega Ojo , Niall Connolly

{"title":"Requirements for trustworthy AI-enabled automated decision-making in the public sector: A systematic review","authors":"Olusegun Agbabiaka , Adegboyega Ojo , Niall Connolly","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124076","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124076","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With AI adoption for decision-making in the public sector projected to rise with profound socio-ethical impacts, the need to ensure its trustworthy use continues to attract research attention. We analyze the existing body of evidence and establish trustworthiness requirements for AI-enabled automated decision-making (ADM) in the public sector, identifying eighteen aggregate facets. We link these facets to dimensions of trust in automation and institution-based trust to develop a theory-oriented research framework. We further map them to the OECD AI system lifecycle, creating a practice-focused framework. Our study has theoretical, practical and policy implications. First, we extend the theory on technological trust. We also contribute to trustworthy AI literature, shedding light on relatively well-known requirements like accountability and transparency and revealing novel ones like context sensitivity, feedback and policy learning. Second, we provide a roadmap for public managers and developers to improve ADM governance practices along the AI lifecycle. Third, we offer policymakers a basis for evaluating possible gaps in current AI policies. Overall, our findings present opportunities for further research and offer some guidance on how to navigate the multi-dimensional challenges of designing, developing and implementing ADM for improved trustworthiness and greater public trust.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124076"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143551295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

One size does not fit all: Sustainable innovation, climate policy, and startups' growth aspirations 一个标准并不能放之四海而皆准：可持续创新、气候政策和初创企业的增长愿望

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124069

Mirko Hirschmann

引用次数: 0

Toward a resilient and smart city: Analysis on enablers for smart city resilience using an integrated DEMATEL–ISM–ANP method 建设具有抗灾能力的智慧城市：利用 DEMATEL-ISM-ANP 综合方法分析智能城市复原力的推动因素

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124081

Rui Li , Yi Lu

{"title":"Toward a resilient and smart city: Analysis on enablers for smart city resilience using an integrated DEMATEL–ISM–ANP method","authors":"Rui Li , Yi Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An integrated strategy that incorporates both smartness and resilience is critical to achieving long-term urban sustainability. A smart city brings both challenges and opportunities for resilience, making the improvement of smart city resilience a key goal in many countries today. This study extracts 21 key enablers that can drive smart city resilience through a literature review and expert opinions, and examines their interrelationships, hierarchies, and priorities by integrating decision making trial and evaluation laboratory, interpretive structural modeling, and analytic network process methods (DEMATEL-ISM-ANP) into a relational model. The results show that financial resource allocation should be prioritized in short-term strategies to support open innovation platform building, ecological protection and disaster risk reduction actions to improve the infrastructural, social, economic and environmental resilience of smart cities. Data reliability, and smart and networked infrastructure are the main transmission enablers, facilitated through technology and governance. Data security, environmental protection, and sustainable resource management are key direct enablers for long-term strategy, facilitated from the bottom up in the structural hierarchy. This research can guide public authorities, practitioners, and academics seeking to advance smart city resilience, and contributes to the building of smart and resilient cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124081"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143534101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analysis of power battery technology R&D strategies under the supply chain competitive environment in post-subsidy era 后补贴时代供应链竞争环境下动力电池技术研发策略分析

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124080

Jinglve Wang, Zhang Liwen, Longfei Song, Chunying Liang, Libiao Bai

{"title":"Analysis of power battery technology R&D strategies under the supply chain competitive environment in post-subsidy era","authors":"Jinglve Wang, Zhang Liwen, Longfei Song, Chunying Liang, Libiao Bai","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study comparatively investigates the impact of supply chain competition on the R&D of power battery technology for new energy vehicles. From both horizontal and vertical perspectives, the supply chain competition relationships are classified into four types. By establishing a game-theoretic model, we comparatively analyze the mechanisms and impacts of supply chain competition on the innovation of power battery technologies. The research findings are as follows: (1) The optimal setting of the R&D target level for battery suppliers is the result of the combined effects of cost-effectiveness of technical R&D activities, demand effects, and the demand fluctuations brought about by competition. (2) The impact of different competitive relationships on the R&D decisions of battery suppliers varies. The R&D target level of incumbent enterprises is consistently positively correlated with the intensity of competition. (3) The distribution of the highest R&D target levels under the four competitive relationships is related to the intensity of competition and the market profitability of battery technologies. The results of this study can provide decision-making recommendations for companies involved in power battery technology R&D and offer new perspectives for consumers in choosing suitable new energy vehicles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124080"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143534102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Promoting digital traceability in agriculture: A predictive approach to adoption and policy design in the olive sector 促进农业的数字可追溯性：橄榄行业采用和政策设计的预测方法

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124077

Carlos Parra-López , Liliana Reina-Usuga , Guillermo Garcia-Garcia , Carmen Carmona-Torres

{"title":"Promoting digital traceability in agriculture: A predictive approach to adoption and policy design in the olive sector","authors":"Carlos Parra-López , Liliana Reina-Usuga , Guillermo Garcia-Garcia , Carmen Carmona-Torres","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124077","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124077","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital traceability systems (DTS) are essential for improving food safety, quality control and transparency in agricultural supply chains, thereby enhancing consumer health and confidence. Despite its potential, the adoption of DTS in traditional agricultural sectors remains limited due to several challenges. This study examines the adoption and diffusion of DTS in the olive sector in Andalusia, Spain - a region critical to global olive production - using the Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool (ADOPT). The study predicts moderate diffusion of DTS in the long term. Key factors influencing adoption are identified, including profitability, enterprise scale, ease and convenience, existing skills and knowledge, and the evaluability and complexity of DTS. A number of policy measures are proposed to increase DTS adoption. These include financial incentives, support strategies for large enterprises, technology simplification, highlighting environmental benefits, risk management initiatives, skills development and training, and strengthening advisory services. This research contributes to the understanding of digital transformation in agriculture, especially in traditional agricultural sectors. It highlights the need for adaptable policy frameworks that take into account the different needs of farmers and technological advances.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124077"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Hidden structures of a global infrastructure: Expansion factors of the subsea data cable network 全球基础设施的隐藏结构：海底数据电缆网络的扩展因素

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124068

Jonas Franken , Thomas Reinhold , Timon Dörnfeld , Christian Reuter

{"title":"Hidden structures of a global infrastructure: Expansion factors of the subsea data cable network","authors":"Jonas Franken , Thomas Reinhold , Timon Dörnfeld , Christian Reuter","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124068","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124068","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The network of subsea data cables (SDC) transmits the majority of international and intercontinental data exchanges. After thirty years of fiber-optic SDC installation across the oceans, almost all coastal and island countries gained access to the only global fixed infrastructure network. Still, there is considerable inequality in the number of available SDC accesses, creating deficits in redundancy for less connected states. Previous research hypothesized multiple factors that influenced the build-up of internet infrastructures but failed to verify these assumptions through inferential statistics. This work highlights the national-level factors that made backbone access provision more – or less – attractive to SDC project decision-makers. Our regression analysis of global country-year data (<em>n</em> = 4916) found that socio-economic (population, GDP), political (state fragility, conflict), and geographic factors (seismic hazard, neighboring territories) significantly influenced the number of active and planned accesses. This work can serve as a foundation for further research leveraging quantitative statistics to unveil hidden structures in the construction of material internet infrastructures and support sustainability in the future allocation of international infrastructure development resources in general.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 124068"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Navigating the power of blockchain strategy: Analysis of technology-organization-environment (TOE) framework and innovation resistance theory using PLS-SEM and ANN insights 导航区块链战略的力量：利用PLS-SEM和ANN见解分析技术-组织-环境（TOE）框架和创新阻力理论

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124044

Alhamzah Alnoor , Sammar Abbas , Abdullah Mohammed Sadaa , XinYing Chew , Gül Erkol Bayram

{"title":"Navigating the power of blockchain strategy: Analysis of technology-organization-environment (TOE) framework and innovation resistance theory using PLS-SEM and ANN insights","authors":"Alhamzah Alnoor , Sammar Abbas , Abdullah Mohammed Sadaa , XinYing Chew , Gül Erkol Bayram","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124044","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124044","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Blockchain technology is rapidly replacing traditional technologies. This technology offers numerous benefits, including transparency, safety and security, authenticity, and traceability, which drive business organizations to adopt it. Thus, the factors that generate resistance to the adoption of blockchain technology must be recognized, and an organization's strategy toward adopting blockchain technology must be influenced. In this study, the vital factors that produce resistance to blockchain technology from the perspective of oil companies operating in Iraq were determined. The three-pronged framework of technology, organization, and environment (TOE) was employed to identify the elements that affect resistance to blockchain technology, with subsequent effects on the blockchain strategy. Data were collected using a questionnaire distributed among the managers of the target companies. Among the 381 distributed questionnaires, 313 usable responses were gathered and analyzed via partial least square–structural equation modeling and artificial neural networks to test the proposed hypotheses. The findings show that all the elements of the TOE framework are crucially associated with resistance to blockchain technology and consequently shape the blockchain strategy. Furthermore, resistance to blockchain technology mediates the link between predictors of TOE factors and the blockchain strategy. Therefore, in this work, the present knowledge on resistance to blockchain technology and the blockchain strategy is enhanced by explicating the factors inhibiting blockchain technology adoption in a previously overlooked context. The findings provide practical insight for managers of oil companies to devise effective blockchain strategies for the optimal adoption of blockchain technology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 124044"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143512443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Policy capacities for mission-oriented innovation policy: A case study of UKRI and the industrial strategy challenge fund 任务导向创新政策的政策能力：以英国研究院和产业战略挑战基金为例

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124049

Julie McLaren, Rainer Kattel

{"title":"Policy capacities for mission-oriented innovation policy: A case study of UKRI and the industrial strategy challenge fund","authors":"Julie McLaren, Rainer Kattel","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124049","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124049","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A new generation of transformative innovation policies, including a reimagined ‘mission’ approach, centre around tackling societal challenges. Their emphasis on directionality, coordination of different actors and policy mixes goes beyond standard science, technology, and innovation (STI), engaging wider policy and other domains. Whilst missions have become steadily popular and there is growing research on their design, there is much to understand about how such models are implemented in practice. A relative gap in the literature is how science, technology and innovation (STI) organisations develop the policy capacities and capabilities to deliver missions in context. This article provides a case study on how UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) fared whilst implementing the Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund (ISCF). It finds that the policy capacities for missions were not fully present within UKRI and notes several tensions as the organisation worked to develop its capabilities for implementing missions. The paper makes recommendations for how funders can enhance those policy capacities and suggestions for how mission-oriented innovation policy analysis might be developed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 124049"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143509542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Skills or degree? The rise of skill-based hiring for AI and green jobs 技能还是学位？人工智能和绿色工作的技能型招聘的兴起

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124042

Matthew Bone , Eugenia González Ehlinger , Fabian Stephany

{"title":"Skills or degree? The rise of skill-based hiring for AI and green jobs","authors":"Matthew Bone , Eugenia González Ehlinger , Fabian Stephany","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Emerging professions in fields like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and sustainability (green jobs) are experiencing labour shortages as industry demand outpaces labour supply. In this context, our study aims to understand whether employers have begun focusing more on individual skills rather than formal qualifications in their recruitment processes. We analysed a large time-series dataset of approximately eleven million online job vacancies in the UK from 2018 to mid-2024, drawing on diverse literature on technological change and labour market signalling. Our findings provide evidence that employers have initiated “skill-based hiring” for AI roles, adopting more flexible hiring practices to expand the available talent pool. From 2018 to 2023, demand for AI roles grew by 21 % as a proportion of all postings (and accelerated into 2024). Simultaneously, mentions of university education requirements for AI roles declined by 15 %. Our regression analysis shows that university degrees have a significantly lower wage premium for both AI and green roles. In contrast, AI skills command a wage premium of 23 %, exceeding the value of degrees up until the PhD-level (33 %). In occupations with high demand for AI skills, the premium for skills is high, and the reward for degrees is relatively low. We recommend leveraging alternative skill-building formats such as apprenticeships, on-the-job training, MOOCs, vocational education and training, micro-certificates, and online bootcamps to fully utilise human capital and address talent shortages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"214 ","pages":"Article 124042"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0