Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第9页

The impact of natural disasters on firm search orientation: Evidence from a natural experiment 自然灾害对企业搜索导向的影响：来自自然实验的证据

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124263

Wonsang Ryu , JaSeung Koo , Taiki Ito , Seung Hun Han

{"title":"The impact of natural disasters on firm search orientation: Evidence from a natural experiment","authors":"Wonsang Ryu , JaSeung Koo , Taiki Ito , Seung Hun Han","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124263","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124263","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the influence of natural disasters on firm search orientation in technology development. While prior research has extensively explored the environmental antecedents of exploration and exploitation, the potential impact of these environmental antecedents on decision-makers' risk preference has received limited attention. Thus, focusing on natural disasters as an environmental factor that alters the level of managerial risk taking, we theorize how such disasters affect firm search orientation. Specifically, we argue that experiencing a natural disaster leads firm decision makers to engage in less managerial risk taking by increasing their perceived variance of outcomes (particularly, the likelihood of maximum loss), reducing their confidence in their capabilities to foresee the future, and arousing anxiety and stress. As a result, this diminished risk preference directs search activities more towards exploitation rather than exploration, because the returns from exploration are often more uncertain and distant compared to those from exploitation. To validate our hypothesis, we utilize the Great East Japan Earthquake as a natural experiment, an event recognized as the deadliest and most devastating in Japanese history.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124263"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Aggregate vs micromodels for forecasting the diffusion of new technologies 预测新技术扩散的聚合模型与微观模型

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124267

Vahideh Sadat Abedi , Hossein Eslami

{"title":"Aggregate vs micromodels for forecasting the diffusion of new technologies","authors":"Vahideh Sadat Abedi , Hossein Eslami","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124267","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124267","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A key discussion in technology diffusion modeling centers on choosing a robust modeling framework for forecasting and policy analysis. This paper contrasts two conventional and theoretically-backed empirical modeling paradigms, the micromodels and the (aggregate/semi-aggregate) Bass-type diffusion models in the context of solar panel adoption, a technology marked by strong localized social learning and heterogeneous consumer preferences. Using a German household-level dataset, we evaluate each paradigm's predictive performance under varying conditions of social learning localization and household heterogeneity. Our findings reveal a trade-off: micromodels, with appropriate degree of granularity, excel at more localized predictions but may be less accurate at aggregate or semi-aggregate predictions. Semi-aggregate diffusion models offer a better balance of accuracy and computational efficiency for aggregate and segment-level forecasts, with acceptable performance in localized predictions for larger number of segments. We also find that micromodels are much more sensitive to correct model specification, whereas aggregate/semi-aggregate models are relatively more prone to overfitting. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the granularity of data, the degree of social learning localization, and customer heterogeneity when choosing a forecasting framework for technology adoption. Aligning the right model with policy objectives and data availability enables policymakers to develop more effective and targeted interventions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124267"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144588721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Public-private partnerships as catalysts for digital transformation and circular economy: Insights from developing countries 公私伙伴关系作为数字化转型和循环经济的催化剂：来自发展中国家的见解

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124270

Umair Tanveer , Thinh Gia Hoang , Shamaila Ishaq , Raja Usman Khalid

{"title":"Public-private partnerships as catalysts for digital transformation and circular economy: Insights from developing countries","authors":"Umair Tanveer , Thinh Gia Hoang , Shamaila Ishaq , Raja Usman Khalid","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124270","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124270","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the dynamics of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in promoting digital transformation and circular economy initiatives in the public sector of developing countries. Using Collaborative Advantage Theory (CAT) and a multiple-case study design, involving 10 public and 12 private organizations across five cases, the research explores how complementary resources, collaborative processes, trust and governance, and mutual benefits and value creation shape the success of these partnerships. Data were collected through 50 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and archival analysis of partnership agreements, project reports, and policy documents. The findings reveal that strategic alignment and collaborative leadership are key triggers for synergy creation and co-creation of value. Additionally, participatory governance models and transparent performance metrics enhance trust and sustainability within PPPs. These results offer important theoretical contributions by expanding Collaborative Advantage Theory in the context of PPPs, emphasizing how collaboration and resource integration lead to sustainable outcomes. Practically, the study provides recommendations for policymakers and private sector leaders to improve the governance, resilience, and scalability of PPPs, promoting long-term public service innovation and sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124270"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144588723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Urban digitalization and government environmental attention: An attention allocation theory perspective 城市数字化与政府环境关注：一个关注分配理论视角

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124268

Zhe Sun , Lei Liu , Rekha Attri , Liang Zhao , Hind Alofaysan

{"title":"Urban digitalization and government environmental attention: An attention allocation theory perspective","authors":"Zhe Sun , Lei Liu , Rekha Attri , Liang Zhao , Hind Alofaysan","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124268","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124268","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Attention allocation theory posits that organizational and individual decision-making processes are shaped by multiple factors. Within this framework, we explore how urban digitalization influences government environmental attention through technological pathways. Empirical results reveal that urban digitalization significantly enhances government environmental attention. This effect operates through strengthening central government environmental supervision and facilitating public environmental participation. Meanwhile, idiosyncrasies of urban officials critically moderate this relationship. The urban digitalization-government environmental attention linkage strengthens when urban officials are young or female. Conversely, frequent official turnover weakens this relationship. In addition, heterogeneity analysis demonstrates differential impacts across city types. Non-resource-based cities show greater responsiveness to digitalization effects compared to resource-dependent counterparts. Moreover, cities receiving low-carbon city pilot policy support demonstrate amplified digitalization benefits in elevating government environmental attention. These findings make valuable contributions to the literature concerning urban digitalization, government environmental attention, and attention allocation theory.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124268"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144588719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Determinants of firms' decisions to block AI crawlers: Strategic insights from the BEDC framework 公司决定阻止人工智能爬虫的决定因素：来自BEDC框架的战略见解

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124275

Chiang-Yu Cheng

引用次数: 0

The intersection of publics services digitalization and women's empowerment in tax revenue mobilization 公共服务数字化与妇女赋权在税收动员中的交叉作用

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124278

Omang Ombolo Messono

{"title":"The intersection of publics services digitalization and women's empowerment in tax revenue mobilization","authors":"Omang Ombolo Messono","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124278","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124278","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses the challenge of tax revenue mobilization within the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals by analyzing the moderating role that women's empowerment can play in the relationship between e-government implementation and the mobilization of fiscal resources. Using panel data from 152 countries between 2003 and 2020, we test two hypotheses: first, that digitalization positively influences tax revenue. Second, reducing the gender gap enhances this effect. Using fixed effects, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), <span><span>Lewbel (2012)</span></span> 2SLS and mediation analysis, our findings reveal that digitalization significantly improves tax collection by streamlining processes and increasing transparency. However, the human capital aspect presents challenges, as gaps in the digital skills of public agents negatively affect outcomes. In exploring the second hypothesis, we find mixed effects. While women's empowerment generally promotes positive tax collection outcomes, it can sometimes diminish the benefits of digitalization on non-resource-based taxes. Conversely, the positive impact of digitalization on resource-related taxes is notably strengthened by reducing the gender gap. These results withstand various sensitivity analyses and underscore the necessity for enhanced commitment to women's inclusion in economic and political spheres to leverage the advantages of digitalization for tax mobilization fully.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124278"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144588722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Intermediating mechanisms and market conditions in big data knowledge management for enhanced market performance 大数据知识管理提升市场绩效的中介机制与市场条件

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124266

Junaid Aftab , Feng Wei , Mohit Srivastava , Nabila Abid , Muhammad Ishtiaq Ishaq

{"title":"Intermediating mechanisms and market conditions in big data knowledge management for enhanced market performance","authors":"Junaid Aftab , Feng Wei , Mohit Srivastava , Nabila Abid , Muhammad Ishtiaq Ishaq","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124266","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124266","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Big data has become a new reality, enabling organizations to gain novel insights and adjust strategies concerning competitors and consumer preferences. However, the hospitality industry still struggles to effectively leverage big data knowledge management to enhance performance and achieve a competitive advantage. Therefore, this study examines the impact of big data knowledge management on market performance, drawing on the knowledge-based view as its theoretical foundation. Additionally, it investigates the mediating roles of big data analytical capability and sustainable marketing in the relationship between big data knowledge management and performance while considering market turbulence as a boundary condition. Using a survey-based research design, data were collected in two waves from 323 managerial-level employees in the Pakistani hospitality industry and analyzed using structural equation modeling. The findings confirm the mediating roles of big data analytical capability and sustainable marketing while revealing that market turbulence weakens the positive association between sustainable marketing and performance. From a theoretical perspective, this study provides empirical support for the proposed hypotheses, offering insights into how big data knowledge management and analytical capability contribute to sustainable marketing and performance in emerging markets. From a managerial standpoint, the findings provide practical guidance for top management on effectively utilizing big data to maximize returns in the hospitality industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124266"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Monitoring new and emerging technologies in order to prevent extremism and terrorist violence 监测新兴技术，以防止极端主义和恐怖主义暴力

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124274

Christian Büscher , Isabel Kusche

{"title":"Monitoring new and emerging technologies in order to prevent extremism and terrorist violence","authors":"Christian Büscher , Isabel Kusche","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124274","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124274","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How can technology assessment (TA) generate knowledge about the malevolent use of technology? Technology can be employed to facilitate extremist actions and terrorist activities. This suggests that any TA approach concerned with the consequences of technology can pertain to matters of civil security. This linkage and its implications for TA, responsible research and innovation, and related approaches have hardly been explored. In this paper, we propose conceptual tools to analyze the linkage and discuss the extent to which existing approaches offer methods to investigate the potentially malevolent use of technology. We propose to differentiate between opportunism (innovation), benevolence (tackling unwanted consequences), and malevolence (abuse) and to treat this threefold distinction as a problem of attributing intent. Against this backdrop, we assess the potential of TA-related approaches to produce knowledge regarding technological affordances for malevolent actors. This goal implies a broadening of the scope of existing concepts to include the assessment of technical affordances that are open for discovery by malevolent actors. Paradoxically, the lack of access to extremist/terrorist sources implies a narrowing of feasible methods to various formats of expert input.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124274"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144570265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Towards mining 4.0: A novel multi-criteria simulation-optimization fuzzy framework for effective slag utilization overcoming green waste management promotion 迈向矿业4.0：一种新的多准则模拟-优化模糊框架，实现矿渣有效利用，克服绿色废物管理的推广

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124271

Mohammad Shamsi , Mohammad Zakerinejad

{"title":"Towards mining 4.0: A novel multi-criteria simulation-optimization fuzzy framework for effective slag utilization overcoming green waste management promotion","authors":"Mohammad Shamsi , Mohammad Zakerinejad","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124271","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124271","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transition to Mining 4.0 requires robust waste management strategies. A critical research gap exists in understanding novel waste utilization techniques and their associated societal implications. This study proposes a comprehensive assessment framework that incorporates criteria of economic, technical, environmental, energy&water, regulations&policy, social, and resiliency. Thirty sustainability indicators were evaluated across nineteen potential slag utilization alternatives. To determine the weights of criteria and indicators, three advanced Fuzzy-Analytical Hierarchy Process (F-AHP) methods including Spherical F-AHP (SF-AHP), interval-valued Pythagorean F-AHP (IVPF-AHP), and randomized weighted F-AHP (RWF-AHP) were compared and the optimal method was identified. Moreover, a novel Fuzzy-Likert Scaling Analysis (FLSA) was proposed to prioritize alternatives. FLSA compared different membership functions (MFs) of triangular, Pythagorean, parabolic, and eighth-order polynomials to find the best MFs. By combining optimized F-AHP, fuzzy-Delphi method (FDM), and FLSA, the framework provides a measurable Slag Management Sustainability Score (SMSS). In a case study examining optimal strategic planning for supplying steel slags, Foolad Mobarakeh Company (FMC) was selected. The most sustainable alternative, “Feed for factories,” achieved an SMSS of 63.633 and 65.049 based on SF-AHP and RWF-AHP, respectively. This framework offers a practical and versatile solution for Mining 4.0, fostering a greener future through sustainable and optimal waste management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124271"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144556741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Can we have the best of both worlds? The impact of emission trading system on carbon reduction and economic growth in China 我们能两全其美吗？碳排放交易制度对中国碳减排和经济增长的影响

IF 12.9 1区管理学

Technological Forecasting and Social Change Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124253

Yu Yang, Qi Zhang, A-Min Zhao, Hui Gao

{"title":"Can we have the best of both worlds? The impact of emission trading system on carbon reduction and economic growth in China","authors":"Yu Yang, Qi Zhang, A-Min Zhao, Hui Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124253","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124253","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates whether China's Emissions Trading System (ETS) can simultaneously achieve carbon emission reductions and economic growth—a dual objective often described as “having the best of both worlds.” Utilizing panel data from 2508 counties spanning 2000 to 2020, we treat the implementation of the ETS as a quasi-natural experiment and employ a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) approach to evaluate its effects. The results show that the ETS significantly reduces carbon emissions while promoting industry output, confirming the compatibility of environmental and economic objectives. Robustness checks confirm the stability of the estimates. Mechanism analyses reveal that the policy's success is primarily driven by technological innovation and enhanced environmental regulation. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that the ETS's effectiveness is more pronounced in cities with stronger industrial foundations, higher enforcement capacity, and those located in the Yangtze River Basin. This research contributes to the environmental economics literature by offering evidence at the county level and provides actionable policy insights for the design and regional tailoring of market-based environmental regulation tools.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48454,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change","volume":"219 ","pages":"Article 124253"},"PeriodicalIF":12.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144556837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0