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Industrialization and pollution: The long-term Impact of early-life exposure on human capital formation 工业化与污染：生命早期暴露对人力资本形成的长期影响
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105270
Pan Chen
{"title":"Industrialization and pollution: The long-term Impact of early-life exposure on human capital formation","authors":"Pan Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105270","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105270","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Air quality in developing countries is often much worse than in developed economies, yet evidence on the long-term human capital effects of air pollution in these settings is limited. This paper uses a cohort difference-in-differences approach to examine the impact of early-life exposure to air pollution during China’s 1950s industrialization on human capital formation. It assumes that economic opportunities linked to industrial plants impact upwind and downwind counties similarly within a 30-mile radius. The results indicate that moving from the 25<span><math><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mi>th</mi></mrow></msup></math></span> to 75<span><math><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mi>th</mi></mrow></msup></math></span> percentile of exposure reduces children’s education by approximately 0.11 years. This effect size is notably larger than the impacts of three other factors affecting educational attainment in both China and the United States.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 105270"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
One hundred years of U.S. state taxation 一百年的美国州税
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105273
Sarah Robinson , Alisa Tazhitdinova
{"title":"One hundred years of U.S. state taxation","authors":"Sarah Robinson ,&nbsp;Alisa Tazhitdinova","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105273","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105273","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the evolution of U.S. state tax rates since 1910 and state tax revenues from 1942 until 2022. Tax policy shifted rapidly at the beginning of the 20<sup>th</sup> century, but in many ways has remained remarkably stable over the past fifty years. Even as tax rates change frequently and vary widely across states, the degree of heterogeneity across states in rates and revenues is very similar over time. We document two key insights for empirical researchers using variation in tax policy for identification. First, tax changes do not appear to be driven by economic conditions, as neither the timing of tax changes nor tax rates themselves exhibit a predictable pattern around state recessions. Second, throughout the time period we study, many tax changes occur simultaneously, particularly for personal, corporate, and sales taxes. Because the coinciding changes are typically moving in the same direction, researchers should use caution when attributing effects to a specific type of tax, and we show that estimates can be sensitive to controlling for additional tax rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 105273"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Declining r∗ in the US: The role of Social Security 美国的衰退：社会保障的作用
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105277
Jacopo Bonchi , Giacomo Caracciolo
{"title":"Declining r∗ in the US: The role of Social Security","authors":"Jacopo Bonchi ,&nbsp;Giacomo Caracciolo","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105277","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105277","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a quantitative life-cycle model to study the impact of Social Security on the US natural interest rate, <span><math><msup><mrow><mi>r</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msup></math></span>. Past reforms mitigated the <span><math><msup><mrow><mi>r</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msup></math></span> decline, raising the natural rate by approximately 1 percentage point between 1970 and 2015 through higher replacement rate and retirement age. In the future, increasing the retirement age would counteract the downward pressure on <span><math><msup><mrow><mi>r</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msup></math></span> due to demographics more than reforms entailing higher contribution or lower replacement rates, with the latter reform delivering the lowest <span><math><msup><mrow><mi>r</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>∗</mo></mrow></msup></math></span> value across different future productivity scenarios for the US economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 105277"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of war on redistribution preferences 战争对再分配偏好的影响
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105284
Alexei Zakharov , Philipp Chapkovski
{"title":"The effect of war on redistribution preferences","authors":"Alexei Zakharov ,&nbsp;Philipp Chapkovski","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105284","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105284","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do wars change preferences for redistributive state policies? We analyze this question using a preregistered survey experiment involving <span><math><mrow><mi>N</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>3920</mn></mrow></math></span> respondents in Russia conducted during the Russo-Ukrainian war. The order of questions in the survey was manipulated to remind some respondents of the war before measuring the outcome variables. We find that among individuals who favor the war, the war reminder increases preferences for redistribution. Our two-part design allows us to investigate the channels for this effect; we find that it is partly due to increased trust in the government. We also observe an increase in prosocial preferences among individuals who support the war, but this effect is not associated with the increase in redistribution preferences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"241 ","pages":"Article 105284"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143170150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Laffer’s day in court: The revenue effects of criminal justice fees and fines 拉弗的出庭日：刑事司法收费和罚款对收入的影响
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105249
Samuel Norris , Evan K. Rose
{"title":"Laffer’s day in court: The revenue effects of criminal justice fees and fines","authors":"Samuel Norris ,&nbsp;Evan K. Rose","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105249","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105249","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many jurisdictions levy sizable fines and fees (legal financial obligations, or LFOs) on criminal defendants. Proponents argue LFOs are a “tax on crime” that funds courts and provides deterrence; opponents argue they do neither. We examine the fiscal implications of lowering LFOs. Incentives to default generate a “Laffer” curve with revenue eventually decreasing in LFOs. Using detailed administrative data, however, we find few defendants demonstrably on the right-hand side of the curve. Those who are tend to be poor, Black, and charged with felonies. As a result, decreasing LFOs for the average defendant would come at substantial cost to governments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105249"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142720718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Place-based policies, structural change and female labor: Evidence from India’s Special Economic Zones 基于地方的政策、结构变化和女性劳动力：印度经济特区的证据
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105259
Johannes Gallé , Daniel Overbeck , Nadine Riedel , Tobias Seidel
{"title":"Place-based policies, structural change and female labor: Evidence from India’s Special Economic Zones","authors":"Johannes Gallé ,&nbsp;Daniel Overbeck ,&nbsp;Nadine Riedel ,&nbsp;Tobias Seidel","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105259","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105259","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper quantifies the local economic impact of special economic zones (SEZs) established in India between 2005 and 2013. Using a novel dataset that combines census information on the universe of Indian firms with geo-referenced data on SEZs, we find that the establishment of SEZs increased local manufacturing and service employment, with positive spillovers up to 10 km from the SEZ area. The analysis shows that the gains in manufacturing and service employment were accompanied by a decline in agricultural labor, especially for women, suggesting that the policy contributed to structural change. In further analysis, we document that significant local employment effects occur across different types of SEZs: privately and publicly run zones, and SEZs with different industry designations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105259"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142699540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The scale and nature of neighborhood effects on children 邻里关系对儿童影响的规模和性质
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105260
Stephen B. Billings , Mark Hoekstra , Gabriel Pons Rotger
{"title":"The scale and nature of neighborhood effects on children","authors":"Stephen B. Billings ,&nbsp;Mark Hoekstra ,&nbsp;Gabriel Pons Rotger","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105260","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105260","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Research documents a causal impact of place on children’s long-run outcomes. However, little is known about the scale at which neighborhood effects operate, and thus what it is about neighborhoods that matters. By using the quasi-random assignment of public housing along with administrative data from Denmark, we get inside the “black box” of neighborhood effects by defining neighborhoods using various characteristics and scales. Results indicate effects on education and earnings are large but local, while effects on drug possession operate on a broader scale. Additionally, unemployment and education are better predictors of outcomes than neighborhood income.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105260"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142699541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effects of lump-sum food benefits during the COVID-19 pandemic on spending, hardship, and health 在 COVID-19 大流行期间一次性总付食品补贴对支出、困难和健康的影响
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105269
Lauren Bauer , Krista Ruffini , Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach
{"title":"The effects of lump-sum food benefits during the COVID-19 pandemic on spending, hardship, and health","authors":"Lauren Bauer ,&nbsp;Krista Ruffini ,&nbsp;Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105269","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105269","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how providing families with lump-sum in-kind assistance during the pandemic affected food hardship, economic well-being, and maternal health. We study the introduction of a new program, P-EBT, that provided grocery vouchers worth approximately $300 per student during spring and summer 2020. Using cross-state variation in program timing, we find that families spent $18–42 per student per week in the 6 weeks after benefit receipt. Household food insufficiency and children’s food insecurity among low-income families declined by 27–49 % in the month following receipt, and maternal mental health improved by 0.9 standard deviation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105269"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142699530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Misperceived effectiveness and the demand for psychotherapy 对疗效的误解和对心理治疗的需求
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105254
Christopher Roth , Peter Schwardmann , Egon Tripodi
{"title":"Misperceived effectiveness and the demand for psychotherapy","authors":"Christopher Roth ,&nbsp;Peter Schwardmann ,&nbsp;Egon Tripodi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105254","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105254","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While psychotherapy has been shown to be effective in treating depression, take-up remains low. In a sample of 1843 depressed individuals, we document that effectiveness concerns are top of mind when respondents consider the value of therapy. We then show that the average respondent underestimates the effectiveness of therapy. An information treatment correcting this misperception increases participants’ incentivized willingness to pay for a $320 therapy from $166 to $176. Our evidence suggests that while information can influence therapy demand by altering beliefs and shifting attention, it may not significantly increase demand unless substantial subsidies are provided.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105254"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142699533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Who truly bears (bank) taxes? Evidence from only shifting statutory incidence 谁真正承担了（银行）税收？仅转移法定发生率的证据
IF 4.8 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105173
Gabriel Jiménez , David Martinez-Miera , José-Luis Peydró
{"title":"Who truly bears (bank) taxes? Evidence from only shifting statutory incidence","authors":"Gabriel Jiménez ,&nbsp;David Martinez-Miera ,&nbsp;José-Luis Peydró","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105173","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105173","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the effects of <em>only</em> shifting the statutory incidence of taxes by exploiting: (i) a mortgage tax shift from being levied on borrowers to being levied on banks, <em>without</em> tax rate changes; (ii) some areas –for historical reasons– being tax-exempt (or having different tax rates); and (iii) administrative data. After the shift, the average mortgage rate increases, less for households with more banking opportunities or with higher income. The tax pass-through is nonexistent for high-income households, but complete for low-income households. Consistently, banks’ risk-taking increases, especially by more policy-affected banks. Results are consistent with a model in which all borrowers have tax saliency issues and differ in their bargaining power vis-à-vis the lender. Overall, the evidence is inconsistent with the irrelevance of statutory incidence and suggests unintended consequences on inequality and banks’ risk-taking.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"240 ","pages":"Article 105173"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142663909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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