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The impact of preference programs in public procurement: Evidence from veteran set-asides 公共采购中优惠项目的影响：来自退伍军人储备金的证据
IF 3.2 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2026-11-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105805
Rodrigo Carril, Audrey Guo
{"title":"The impact of preference programs in public procurement: Evidence from veteran set-asides","authors":"Rodrigo Carril,&nbsp;Audrey Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105805","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105805","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Veteran-owned businesses receive preferential treatment in procurement by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the largest civilian federal agency by procurement spending. We study a 2016 Supreme Court ruling that expanded the scope of these set-asides and estimate its effects on targeted firms and procurement outcomes. The ruling increased the share of purchase order contracts awarded to service-disabled veteran-owned small businesses. Gains accrued both to incumbent vendors and to first-time VA contractors, including firms that had previously registered but had not won federal awards. We find little evidence of changes in competition for awards, and no significant impact on contract execution performance. The results suggest that, in commercial procurement markets with relatively low barriers to entry, set-asides can expand access for targeted firms without detectable deterioration in government procurement outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"263 ","pages":"Article 105805"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149363134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
In sickness and in health: Motivating improved healthcare using holistic patient contracts 在疾病和健康方面：利用整体病人合同激励改善医疗保健
IF 3.2 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2026-11-01 Epub Date: 2026-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105663
Kevin Croke, Benjamin Daniels, Robert Lipinski, Daniel Rogger
{"title":"In sickness and in health: Motivating improved healthcare using holistic patient contracts","authors":"Kevin Croke,&nbsp;Benjamin Daniels,&nbsp;Robert Lipinski,&nbsp;Daniel Rogger","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105663","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105663","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impacts of family doctors writing an explicit ‘care contract’ with at-risk patients for increased holistic primary care. The intervention was designed to shift the care relationship between the two parties away from episodic curative care and towards a holistic plan for patient welfare. We tracked healthcare utilization, diagnosis, prescription, hospitalization, and mortality outcomes through the universe of patient records. The program caused increased screening, diagnosis and treatment of chronic health issues among enrolled patients by about 10% across these categories, with suggestive evidence that hospitalization declined by 8%. Among ‘mild-risk’ patients, the treatment group experienced annual reductions in all-cause mortality of 20%, in an analysis pre-specified as exploratory.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"263 ","pages":"Article 105663"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149363140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal accountability: Institutional discipline and behavioral frictions 财政问责制：制度纪律与行为摩擦
IF 3.2 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2026-11-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105808
Alejandro Saporiti, Yizhi Wang
{"title":"Fiscal accountability: Institutional discipline and behavioral frictions","authors":"Alejandro Saporiti,&nbsp;Yizhi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105808","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105808","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop and test a model of fiscal accountability in which parties compete over integrated fiscal platforms comprising taxes, public-good provision, and political rents. The theory shows how power-sharing institutions discipline rent extraction: greater disproportionality in the vote-to-power mapping increases the political cost of marginal vote losses and, along the interior equilibrium, reduces rents, raises public-good provision, and improves voter welfare. We test these predictions in a laboratory election environment that observes both candidate platform choices and voter behavior. The evidence supports the central institutional mechanism. The disproportional rule reduces proposed rents, shifts platforms toward public-good provision, and increases aggregate voter welfare. Accountability, however, remains incomplete. Voters respond to fiscal performance, but less than the rational (automated) benchmark; partisan bias dampens policy responsiveness among opposing voters; and a public-good “gambit” makes rents less electorally costly when bundled with public-good gains.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"263 ","pages":"Article 105808"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149363307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does ridesharing affect external-cause mortality? Evidence from U.S. Vital Statistics Data 拼车会影响外因死亡率吗？来自美国生命统计数据的证据
IF 3.2 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2026-11-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105813
Conor Lennon, Christian Saenz, Keith Teltser
{"title":"Does ridesharing affect external-cause mortality? Evidence from U.S. Vital Statistics Data","authors":"Conor Lennon,&nbsp;Christian Saenz,&nbsp;Keith Teltser","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105813","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105813","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Existing research suggests ridesharing affects transportation access, substance use, and exposure to crime. Ridesharing may therefore also have meaningful effects on mortality related to these underlying factors. To address this issue, we use restricted-access data from the National Vital Statistics System to study how ridesharing affects mortality from external causes. Our identification strategy relies on spatial and temporal variation in UberX entry across U.S. counties. Among those aged 18 to 45, we find that UberX entry into an area is associated with 2.01 additional deaths per quarter per 100,000 population (roughly a 10% increase). We find that these deaths are primarily related to alcohol and drug use. We support a causal interpretation of our findings by presenting event studies, placebo analyses, sensitivity and heterogeneity analyses, and a variety of robustness checks, including difference-in-differences estimators that are robust to heterogeneous treatment effects. Our work contributes to the literature by addressing both the benefits and costs of ridesharing, and by informing stakeholders who are interested in the cumulative impact of ridesharing on public health and well-being.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"263 ","pages":"Article 105813"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149363306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pricing climate risks: Evidence from wildfires and municipal bonds 气候风险定价：来自野火和市政债券的证据
IF 3.2 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2026-11-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105810
Woongchan Jeon, Lint Barrage, Kieran James Walsh
{"title":"Pricing climate risks: Evidence from wildfires and municipal bonds","authors":"Woongchan Jeon,&nbsp;Lint Barrage,&nbsp;Kieran James Walsh","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105810","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105810","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How are public finances affected by climate-driven changes in wildfire risk? Using high-resolution meteorological forecasts, land use data, and US municipal bond spreads, we find that municipalities facing greater future wildfire exposure already incur higher borrowing costs: A one standard deviation increase in future wildfire risk is associated with a 7 (8) basis point rise in primary (secondary) market spreads—over 15% of the sample mean. Impacts appear larger in areas with higher minority populations and greater reliance on local revenue. Our study contributes to the broader literature by introducing a new approach to evaluating the capitalization of evolving physical climate risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"263 ","pages":"Article 105810"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149363138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal avoidability in cross-border minimum taxation 跨境最低税的最优可避税性
IF 3.2 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2026-11-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105809
Adam Kern
{"title":"Optimal avoidability in cross-border minimum taxation","authors":"Adam Kern","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105809","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105809","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many tax regimes collect revenue to the extent that other governments do not. This paper develops a theory of how such cross-border minimum taxes should be designed, focusing on choices that affect avoidance of the regime. Making a minimum tax more difficult to avoid retains more firms within the regime but weakens competition among tax havens. Havens then raise their rates toward the minimum, reducing the top-up tax rate on shifted profit. As a result, an avoidable minimum tax can raise more revenue for the governments that impose it than an unavoidable one.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"263 ","pages":"Article 105809"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149363136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Liquidity constraints and staggered income disbursement: evidence from TANF, SNAP, and medicaid 流动性限制和交错收入支出：来自TANF、SNAP和medicaid的证据
IF 3.2 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2026-11-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105785
Alicia Atwood, Lindsay Allen, Sabrina K. Young
{"title":"Liquidity constraints and staggered income disbursement: evidence from TANF, SNAP, and medicaid","authors":"Alicia Atwood,&nbsp;Lindsay Allen,&nbsp;Sabrina K. Young","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105785","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105785","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Households often participate in multiple safety net programs at the same time. We estimate impacts on the monthly cycle of drug overdoses when an individual enrolled in multiple safety net programs receives benefit transfers spread out across the month rather than concentrated on a single day. We find that receiving program transfers on different days reduced the likelihood of an overdose in the month by 33 percent and the number of overdoses by 40 percent. These reductions are due to a 54 percent decrease in the likelihood of overdose in the week of the transfer for the second transfer received in the month. Our results suggest that coordinating the interaction of when transfers arrive from different safety net programs is a potentially important policy lever.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"263 ","pages":"Article 105785"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149363137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
State capacity and wildfire mitigation: Evidence from state-led forest conservation in China 国家能力与野火缓解：来自中国国家主导的森林保护的证据
IF 3.2 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2026-11-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105814
Rong Ma, Wenhui Chen, Bo Zhang
{"title":"State capacity and wildfire mitigation: Evidence from state-led forest conservation in China","authors":"Rong Ma,&nbsp;Wenhui Chen,&nbsp;Bo Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105814","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105814","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides causal evidence on how state-led institutional reform in public forest management affects wildfire risk. We examine a reform in China that restructures state-owned forest farms as nonprofit public institutions, shifting their funding to government budgets and tightening enforcement of logging restrictions. Using a difference-in-differences design based on historical farm-town boundaries, we find that the reform lowers forest-fire incidence by roughly 10%. The effects peak during local political turnover and are stronger in areas upwind of local jurisdictions, suggesting that political incentives and accountability shape implementation. Fire declines are larger among farms located in counties with stronger fiscal capacity, which provide greater subsidies, and among farms with higher compliance with logging restrictions, highlighting public financing and regulatory enforcement as key channels. We also observe modest positive spillovers into adjacent woodlands. Accounting for spillover effects in nearby control areas implies a reduction of over 20% in forest fires within state forest farms. A simple cost-benefit analysis shows that health benefits are the main source of monetized gains and that benefits exceed costs under the spillover-adjusted estimate. Our findings illustrate how state capacity can be mobilized through public financing and regulatory authority to generate tangible environmental and social gains in publicly managed forests.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"263 ","pages":"Article 105814"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149363139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Weather and U.S. railways: risk, adaptation, and congestion 天气与美国铁路：风险、适应和拥堵
IF 3.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105572
Xinming Du , Andrew J. Wilson
{"title":"Weather and U.S. railways: risk, adaptation, and congestion","authors":"Xinming Du ,&nbsp;Andrew J. Wilson","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105572","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105572","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Railway operation is known to be affected by the weather, but the magnitude of these effects has not been estimated at scale. We investigate the effect of weather on U.S. railways using accident and performance data spanning 1997–2022. We find that exposure to temperatures over 86 <span><math><msup><mspace></mspace><mrow><mo>∘</mo></mrow></msup></math></span>F (under 5 <span><math><msup><mspace></mspace><mo>∘</mo></msup></math></span>F) leads to a 9.5% (46%) increase in accidents and a 57% (222%) increase in deaths. Railroads are also adapted to their local climate (with warmer places exhibiting lower sensitivity to heat), learn from prior accidents, and change train speed and throughput in response to weather. Due to the fixed, network nature of railways, we discover that local responses to weather result in a negative externality of propagating delays. Our findings suggest that public funding for rail upgrades may improve both safety and performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 105572"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146081485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal capacity and capital misallocation: the economic costs of tax evasion 财政能力与资本错配：逃税的经济成本
IF 3.4 1区 经济学
Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105581
Yu Liu , Xiaoxue Zhao
{"title":"Fiscal capacity and capital misallocation: the economic costs of tax evasion","authors":"Yu Liu ,&nbsp;Xiaoxue Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105581","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105581","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines developing countries’ low administrative capacity to enforce uniform tax rates across space as a driver of capital allocation and a cause of low productivity. We rely on the Golden Tax Project, an information technology reform in China that eliminates the need for local tax-enforcing agencies to verify firm sales and purchases through onsite inspections, as a natural experiment to study the effects of fiscal capacity on firms’ location and capital allocation decisions. Exploiting the heterogeneous shocks that the reform exerts on the fiscal capacity of Chinese counties with different geographic ruggedness, we find that the Golden Tax Project significantly leveled effective tax rates across Chinese counties, which caused capital to relocate out of counties that experienced a bigger fiscal capacity boost after the reform. Such cross-county capital reallocation significantly equalized the marginal product of capital across firms and caused a rightward shift in productivities among them.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48436,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Public Economics","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 105581"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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